Long
SPX – Double Bounce Off 50 SMA, 7600 Call Wall Confluence SPX is showing a constructive daily structure after two recent rebounds off the 50 SMA — first in June, then again in July. Each dip found buyers at that moving average before price pushed back higher.
Price is now trading around 7554, well above the 7495 HVL, which keeps SPX inside a positive GEX regime. In this environment, moves tend to be more controlled than below HVL, and upside can extend as long as the structure holds.
The next major reference is 7600 — the highest call NETGEX wall and the largest absolute gamma concentration on the profile.
🔶 Regime Context 🔶
With spot firmly above 7495 HVL, SPX remains in a positive GEX regime. The transition zone between 7400 P1 and 7600 C1 is where direction is being decided — but the gamma flip level has already been cleared, which favors controlled upside rather than reactive volatility.
🔶 Options Structure Context 🔶
👉 7600 – C1 (highest call NETGEX wall)
Confluence at 7600:
C1 — highest call NETGEX
Ab1 — largest absolute gamma
That makes 7600 a clear reaction zone — not just a round number. Price is now approaching this level after holding above HVL and bouncing twice from the 50 SMA.
🔶 Downside Structure 🔶
👉 7495 – HVL — regime pivot; must hold to keep positive GEX intact
👉 7400 – P1 — strongest put wall / primary downside support
A clean break below 7495 would shift the structure back toward a more reactive regime. 7400 remains the main put-side floor below.
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
PUT$ 57.3% (42 DTE) means put options at an equivalent distance from spot are priced 57.3% higher than the corresponding calls — this is put pricing skew. At this level, downside hedging demand is present but not extreme, which fits a mildly constructive rather than heavily defensive positioning tone.
Put pricing skew remains moderate rather than at defensive extremes — hedging urgency has not escalated into panic-style levels.
IVRank 31
IVx 15.6 (42 DTE)
PUT$ 57.3% (42 DTE) — put pricing skew
Implied move ±0.34% (±25.3)
🔶 Key Structure to Watch 🔶
7600 – C1 + Ab1 confluence — next major upside reaction zone
7495 – HVL — regime pivot; positive GEX depends on holding above
7400 – P1 — primary put wall / downside floor
50 SMA – dynamic support; two recent bounces confirm its role
For now, SPX is holding a positive GEX structure above HVL after two clean 50 SMA rebounds, with 7600 as the next major test.
The key question is whether momentum can reach the 7600 call wall confluence — and how price reacts once it gets there. 
Long
Short
Short
Long
S&P500 enters Friday with a constructive toneUS equity futures are pointing to a firmer open as investors build on Thursday's relief rally, with easing geopolitical tensions and renewed strength in technology continuing to support risk sentiment.
The biggest positive for equities remains the decline in oil prices after comments from President Trump raised hopes that the US and Iran could still reach a diplomatic agreement. Brent crude has fallen back towards $76 per barrel, easing concerns that higher energy costs could reignite inflation and delay further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Technology is once again providing leadership after a strong rebound in semiconductor and hardware stocks helped lift the broader market on Thursday. Investors rotated back into growth and cyclical sectors, with Autos, Technology Hardware, Semiconductors and Financials outperforming, suggesting confidence is returning after earlier geopolitical uncertainty.
Overnight, Japanese government bond yields fell sharply and the yen strengthened after reports the government is considering encouraging major pension funds, including the GPIF, to increase allocations to domestic assets. While investors remain sceptical that pension funds will significantly alter their asset allocations in the near term, the move has supported global bond markets and helped keep Treasury yields under pressure—a favourable backdrop for US equities.
Markets will also continue monitoring developments in the Middle East. Although negotiations between the US and Iran are reportedly continuing despite recent military exchanges, any deterioration in the diplomatic outlook could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil prices and weigh on risk assets.
Today's focus now shifts to Delta Air Lines' earnings and the Canadian employment report. Delta's results will provide an early read on consumer and business travel demand, while any surprises in the Canadian labour market could influence North American interest rate expectations.
Overall, the S&P 500 enters Friday with a constructive tone. Lower Treasury yields, easing inflation concerns, improving risk appetite and renewed leadership from the technology sector are providing support. However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the weekend given the potential for further geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. A sustained move above Thursday's highs would reinforce the bullish momentum, while any resurgence in oil prices or geopolitical tensions could prompt profit-taking after the recent rebound.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 7582
Resistance Level 2: 7620
Resistance Level 3: 7660
Support Level 1: 7460
Support Level 2: 7430
Support Level 3: 7386
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Nifty is trapped in this rectangle for more than 2 yearsNifty is trapped in this rectangular pattern since last 2 years fro one reason or the other. Various wars, economic global turmoils due to Tariff and other reasons. Indicators for India Inc. remain positive but global factors are hampering the growth. Also The IT segment is reeling under constant threat of AI.
Once the trend line and Mother line resistance in the weekly charts are broken and we get a weekly closing above the same we would probably see further growth in our investments. Initially Nifty needs to hold above mother line then the target will be 25K post that 25.5K and finally the previous highs. Once we close above the rectangular pattern there will be no holding back for Indian markets.
For that to happen crude has to stabilize, War are required to end and tariff issues have to be overcome. Further patience from investors for a couple of quarter should be good enough for recoveries to happen. For those of us who are in the markets for a decade or couple of decades or more understand this points as they have seen growth, de-growth, accelaration and consolidation phases. For those of us who are new to the market, the learing that you gather now will be invaluable and help you create generational wealth.
You can read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION available on amazon. This book is available in Kindle as well as paperback format. This book will help you navigate throguh the investment maze. The book currently enjoys 4.8 rating out of 5. Many investors consider it a hand book to investment. If you buy and read it you will not be disappointed. It is a value for money book.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work or they have worked in Past Present of future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Charts do not represent anything. We are just showing positive and negative aspects of the stock. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We are not a SEBI registered Research analyst. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity. 
Education
S&P 500 Loses $7,500 — Are Bears Taking Control?The S&P 500 ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is currently moving near a resistance zone($7,625-$7,524) and seems to have broken the support line and the key trading level of $7,500.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the S&P 500 appears to have completed a Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) over the past month, and we could expect the next wave of decline.
Given that Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has shown a strong correlation with the S&P 500 in recent months, a sudden drop—especially in the S&P 500—could impact crypto markets and lead to a decline in Bitcoin’s price .
I expect the S&P 500 to continue its bearish move in the coming hours and test the support zone($7,463-$7,438). If it breaks below, it could drop at least to the next support line. The next key trading level to watch is $7,400.
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the downward waves in the S&P 500 seem to continue.
I expect the S&P 500 to break the support zone($7,402-$7,326) in the coming hours and potentially drop at least to the support lines around $4,311. If the downward momentum is stronger, we can expect even lower levels.
First Target: Support zone($7,402-$7,326)
Second Target: Support lines
Stop Loss(SL): $7,588(Worst)
What’s your view on the S&P 500? Will it make new all-time highs again, or should we expect a deeper correction for the index and the U.S. stock market?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends. Short 
Nifty Analysis EOD – July 10, 2026 – Friday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – July 10, 2026 – Friday 🔴
Full Circle: Grinds Back to 24,200 Panic-Selling Level
🗞 Nifty Summary
Another range-bound day, and this time with a smaller range than yesterday’s.
Nifty opened with a 162-point gap up, trading with bullish sentiment above R1 and PDH. From the first tick, the index pushed further north, adding another 105 points to form the IB at 105 points.
The rest of the day mostly stayed within this range, though mid-session activity got denser inside the 30-point band of 24,150 ~ 24,180. By the close, Nifty settled at 24,211.65, near the day’s high, with an adjusted close of 24,206.90.
Today’s move also stayed inside 8th July’s big candle range, but held above yesterday’s high. The chart shows some selling pressure near 24,200, yet closing right at this level puts us in a bit of a dilemma.
Today’s close lands at the exact spot where the 8th July panic selling started — so what do we make of that? Was that fear gone, or was that whole situation actually resolved? The geopolitical situation hasn’t thrown up anything fresh either way. Let’s see where we open on Monday; that should define the short-term trend bias from here.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,124.70
High: 24,228.45
Low: 24,120.35
Close: 24,206.90
Change: +244.10 (+1.02%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Type: Strong Bullish — buyers stayed in control right through the session
Range: ≈ 108 points — low volatility
Body: ≈ 82 points — reflects steady buying pressure holding up through the day
Upper Wick: ≈ 22 points — some rejection near the high, minor supply showing up
Lower Wick: ≈ 4 points — barely any selling at the low, sellers didn’t get much room
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 262.07
IB Range: 105.70 → Medium
Market Structure: ImBalanced
Trade Highlights:
09:31 Long Trade: Trailing Target Hit (R:R 1:1.19)
10:29 Short Trade: Target Hit (R:R 1:1.81)
11:53 Short Trade: SL Hit
12:45 Long Trade: SL Hit
Trade Summary: I got trapped in a couple of fakeouts, so I decided to stay out and wait for an IB breakout, which kept me from getting caught in any more whipsaws.
🧱 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones: 24,250 | 24,360 | 24,500
Support Zones: 24,110 | 24,040 | 23,960 | 23,865 ~ 23,785
🧠 Final Thoughts
“Price can return to the same number twice and still be telling two different stories”
Today felt like the market took yesterday’s gap and just sat on it. 162 points up at the open, another 105 points added early, and then most of the day just chopped around inside the IB range.
If 24,200 holds through Monday’s open, this range might slowly build into something bigger. A break below 24,110 could bring the 24,040 ~ 23,960 zone back into play, and losing 23,865 ~ 23,785 opens the door to revisit lower levels. On the upside, 24,250 and then 24,360 are the zones worth watching if buyers stay in charge.
Not going to read too much into the closing print at 24,200 — it’s just one more data point until Monday’s open gives us more to work with. Staying patient with the IB breakout approach worked today, and that’s probably the right way to walk into next week too.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is my personal digital diary and represents my own analysis and point of view. It is not financial advice; please consult a professional advisor before making any trading decisions. Long 
S&P500 What does it historically do before midterm elections?On November 03 2026 the U.S. goes for its midterm elections. Right now we 17 weeks before, this rather critical event for the stock market so let's see how the S&P500 index (SPX) has performed historically 17 weeks before its midterm elections since 2002 and the Dotcom Bubble Crisis.
As you can see, we've had 6 midterm elections since 2002. On 4 occasions, the market ended lower (red Rectangles) at the time of the elections and only 2 (green Rectangles) managed to rise. As a result, there are twice as many probabilities for S&P500 to decline and be at a lower price than today, than they are to rise.
Also it is worth mentioning that unless the price is on it that 17 week period before, the market tends to seek its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by the midterm elections. And since this time we are above it, it is historically justified to consider a pull-back towards it, the strongest probability. And by November, contact with the 1W MA50 can be made at around 7100 at least.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 Can Bulls Clear 7555?Hi everyone!🌴☀️
Yesterday I published a detailed SPX analysis where I mentioned:
"Given the current technical structure, I believe the most likely scenario is a continuation toward the all-time high at 7625, provided the U.S.–Iran conflict does not escalate further and instead remains stable or gradually de-escalates."
✅So far, that's exactly what we're seeing, as the market continues to move confidently toward the ATH.
❗️As a follow-up to yesterday's post, I'd like to draw your attention to the market's reaction (highlighted by the red arrows) to the local resistance level at 7555 on the 4H timeframe.
I consider this level to be the key factor in determining the next move.
📈💎If SPX breaks above 7555 and manages to hold that level, clearing the all-time high at 7625 should not be a major challenge. In that case, the path toward the next target at 7950 opens up.
📉🧨However, if price gets rejected at 7555 once again or forms another false breakout, there's a high probability we'll see a move back toward the 7450–7500 area, where the 100 EMA and 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe are currently located.
If those moving averages are broken with strong momentum, the next key support levels become:
🪓 7300 — Local horizontal support.
🪓 7200 — Area of the 100 EMA (1D).
🪓 7000 — Previous ATH.
Peace, everyone! 🌄 Long 
Long 
Short 
## NIFTY 50 – 1-Hour Chart Analysis## NIFTY 50 – 1-Hour Chart Analysis
1. Nifty is trading within a **rising channel**, maintaining a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, which indicates that the medium-term trend remains bullish.
2. The upper channel boundary around **24,500–24,600** has acted as a strong resistance zone, with multiple rejections confirming the presence of aggressive profit booking.
3. The horizontal support near **23,800** has been tested several times and has held firmly, making it a critical demand zone for the ongoing uptrend.
4. The recent sharp decline from **24,550** found immediate buying support near **23,800**, resulting in a strong rebound that reinforces the importance of this level.
5. As long as Nifty continues to trade above **23,800**, the overall bullish structure remains intact, and buyers are likely to retain control.
6. The immediate resistance is placed around **24,300–24,500**. A decisive breakout above this zone could trigger a fresh rally towards **24,700–24,800**.
7. On the downside, a sustained close below **23,800** would invalidate the current bullish channel and could lead to a correction towards **23,500–23,300**.
8. The repeated support and resistance reactions shown on the chart indicate that the market is respecting these technical levels, making them crucial for short-term trading decisions.
9. Traders should closely monitor the **23,800 support** and the **24,500 resistance**, as a breakout from either side is likely to determine the next major directional move.
10. **Overall Outlook: Moderately Bullish (8/10)** with the expected path: **24,200 → 24,500 → 24,700**, while **23,800** remains the key support. A breakdown below **23,800** could shift the outlook to bearish with downside targets of **23,500–23,300**.
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### Disclaimer
> **Disclaimer:** This analysis is based on technical indicators, price action, support and resistance levels, trendline analysis, and the current market structure. It is intended **solely for educational and informational purposes** and **should not be considered financial or investment advice**. Financial markets are inherently volatile, and no technical analysis can guarantee future price movements. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
Short 
Is Nasdaq Forming a Bear Trap?The Nasdaq Index is currently trading near a pivotal price zone that could determine its next major move. This area may serve as the launching point for a strong bullish wave if key technical conditions are met. So, what supports this scenario?
Key observations from the chart
The Nasdaq broke below a key support level near 29,000 (Low 1 on the chart).
It then extended its decline and broke another important support level near 28,870 (Low 2).
From a technical perspective, the index was expected to continue falling after breaking these support levels. Instead, buyers quickly regained control, allowing prices to recover sharply.
The rebound has so far stalled near a previous resistance area, represented by High 3 on the chart, around 29,900.
Is a Bear Trap Developing?
The Nasdaq may be forming a bear trap, a bullish technical pattern that occurs when a downside breakout fails and sellers become trapped as prices reverse higher.
Confirmation of this scenario would require the index to break above and establish sustained trading above the 29,900 resistance level. This area is particularly important because it also coincides with the 200-period moving average, adding further technical significance. As a result, this level will be closely monitored in the coming sessions.
Fundamental Support
The improving technical outlook comes as U.S. equities posted strong gains on Thursday, led by semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq advanced approximately 1.8%, closing near 29,700.
Meanwhile, OpenAI unveiled its latest artificial intelligence model, GPT-5.6, while reports indicated that Meta is preparing to begin production of its new AI chips in September. These developments have further strengthened optimism toward the technology sector. Short 
GOLD’s Fundamental Outlook FridayVANTAGE:NAS100 Gold is trading in one of those markets where the next headline can change everything.
Earlier this month, a weak NFP report had traders thinking the Fed might finally ease up. Payrolls missed expectations, previous numbers were revised lower, and fewer people were participating in the workforce. The market quickly backed away from expecting another rate hike.
But that story didn’t last.
Fresh tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices back up, putting inflation right back in the spotlight. Then the latest FOMC Minutes reminded everyone that another Fed hike before the end of 2026 is still a real possibility.
And that’s what matters most right now.
As long as the CAPITALCOM:DXY Dollar stays strong, Gold is going to have a tough time putting together a lasting rally. The geopolitical news is keeping buyers interested, but unless things get a lot worse, I don’t think it’s enough to beat the Dollar.
One thing that really stands out to me is how the Fed is changing the way it communicates. Under Kevin Warsh, there’s less guidance, fewer hints, and a lot more uncertainty.
To me, that’s the market telling us one thing:
Stop trying to guess the Fed. Start paying attention to the data.
That’s why these dates matter:
• July 14: CPI
• July 15: PPI
• July 16: Retail Sales
• July 28-29: FOMC Meeting
Right now, I’m not married to either side.
A softer inflation report could knock the Dollar lower and give OANDA:XAUUSD Gold some breathing room. A hotter inflation print or another geopolitical headline could send things the other way just as fast.
For now, I’d rather react than predict. That’s usually the better trade.
