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Decision time for Nikkei as price action compressesWe’re getting close to decision time when it comes to the Nikkei, with price action becoming compressed following a period of weakness.
The setup marginally favours an eventual resumption of the prior bearish trend, but I’m waiting for confirmation one way or another through a break of the structure before making any decisions.
A clean break of uptrend support running from the lows hit on Monday would put a retest of 62,715 on the cards, with the swing low set in early August at 62,058 and another swing low set in late July at 60,433 other potential targets if we were to see an extension of the prevailing bearish trend.
Of course, if we saw a break above downtrend resistance running from the highs set in early September that sticks, 64,000 would be the first hurdle for bulls. A push above there may encourage more buyers to join in, putting 64,915, 65,355 and 65,750 in play initially.
Momentum marginally favours the bears, with RSI (14) sitting beneath 50, while MACD remains negative and is starting to converge on the signal line.
One factor that partially offsets the bearish technical bias is the reversal underway in USD/JPY. A weaker yen has historically tended to be supportive for the Nikkei given the index’s large weighting of exporters and offshore earners, potentially providing some support even if the technical structure remains vulnerable.
At this stage, the setup marginally favours the bears, but realistically a definitive price break from the structure would be far more informative on potential near-term directional risks.
Good luck!
DS 
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Short 
DXY 2H | The Next Structure Will Define the Larger Path⏱️ Estimated Reading Time: About 2 Minutes
Following our daily DXY analysis, we are now moving down to the 2-hour chart to examine what the current movement may be building at the lower degree.
In the bullish scenario, if the recent correction has already completed, the market should now be developing a new Wave 1. Therefore, simply seeing price move higher is not enough. Price needs to break decisively out of the marked black boxes and then develop a valid motive structure.
If that happens, the bullish higher-degree scenario gains more weight, while structures such as a Leading Diagonal or Nested 1–2 remain possible.
However, the bearish scenario is still alive.
If price moves slightly beyond the previous peak at the lower degree, but fails to develop a strong and valid bullish structure and then turns lower again, the market could instead be building another corrective structure, such as another Zigzag.
In that case, the correction could become deeper and more time-consuming, giving the higher-degree bearish scenario greater importance again.
So at this stage, price action and the quality of the structure matter more than the direction of the move itself.
If the breakout is accompanied by a valid motive structure, the bullish scenario will strengthen.
If the move beyond the previous peak proves temporary and a valid bearish structure develops afterward, the probability of further correction will increase.
For now, we let the market make the decision.
The higher timeframe gives us the map;
the 2-hour chart must show us which path the market is actually building.
Structure First. Scenario Second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Dollar Index Future
7 hours ago
DXY | When Structure Reveals the Dollar’s Next Path
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SP 500 Bearish Pressure, Then a Potential Upside RecoverySP500 has been showing two-way volatility, repeatedly pushing lower before finding buying interest around the 7,635–7,645 demand/support zone.
The recent downside pressure is largely connected to a more cautious macro environment. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns and higher oil prices have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter policy stance. These factors have recently pressured U.S. equities and caused the S&P 500 to pull back from its highs.
However, the latest rebound suggests short-term buyers are stepping back in after the sell-off. Friday's marketrecovery was helped by inflation data that was viewed as less damaging than feared, while retreating oil prices also eased some pressure on equities.
Technically, the 7,635–7,645 zone is the key area to watch. If price continues holding above this demand zone and confirms bullish momentum, the recovery could extend toward 7,720, followed by the 7,760–7,765 resistance/liquidity area marked on the chart a clean break below the demand zone, however, would weaken the bullish recovery setup and reopen downside risk.
Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍
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Long 
The De-Dollarization Plumbing Nobody is Talking About $DXYWhile social media debates whether the dollar crashes overnight or dominates forever, a fundamental structural rewiring is quietly occurring. Sovereign nations are actively refinancing dollar denominated loans directly into Chinese yuan.
This is not a sudden crash of the greenback, but a gradual bypass of the Western financial architecture.
Who Is Doing This?
The blueprint crystallized when Kenya finalized the conversion of its Chinese Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) loans converting roughly $3.5b to $5b from USD to RMB.
Kenya shifted from floating Western benchmark rates (SOFR) to China’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR), slicing interest rates nearly in half and saving an estimated $215M to $250M annually.
Following Kenya’s execution, Ethiopia entered bilateral agreements with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to restructure debt treatment, set up RMB trade settlements, and integrate its banks into CIPS (China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System). Other debt distressed borrowers holding heavy Chinese bilateral loans including Zambia, Mozambique, and Sri Lanka are exploring or initiating similar bilateral currency swaps and redenomination models.
How Does This Actually Affect the U.S.?
These nations aren't dumping existing dollar balances. However, they are eliminating future demand for them.
The Closed-Loop Financial Rail:
When a country owes AMEX:USD , it must clear payments through New York correspondent banks and SWIFT. Redenominating debt into RMB cuts Western rails out entirely. The borrower sells raw commodities directly to China, earns RMB, and uses that RMB to service Chinese infrastructure debt via CIPS. The transaction never touches a U.S. bank or Wall Street clearinghouse.
Blunting Sanctions Leverage:
The primary enforcement mechanism of U.S. foreign policy has long been the threat of cutting off access to the dollar clearing system. As developing nations establish parallel, non-dollar debt and payment circuits, the coercive leverage of secondary financial sanctions weakens.
Erosion of Passive Dollar Demand:
Foreign central banks historically held massive foreign exchange cushions in U.S. Treasuries because global debt had to be paid in dollars. Redenominating external sovereign liabilities reduces the structural necessity to hoard dollar reserves over the coming decades.
Hard Data to Track (Beyond Central Bank Gold Accumulation)
While foreign central banks hoarding physical gold at multi decade records remains a visible sign of reserve diversification, the real operational plumbing shows up in institutional data.
SAFE Cross Border RMB Share:
Tracks the proportion of China’s own external trade and cross-border payments settled in yuan versus dollars. It has crossed 52%, with H1 cross-border trade settlements in RMB up over 31% year-over-year. A decade ago, this was near zero.
U.S. Treasury TIC Data (Official vs. Private Divergence):
Recent Treasury International Capital (TIC) releases show a clear structural split. Foreign private investors (hedge funds and asset managers capturing high nominal yields) continue buying, while foreign official accounts (central banks) frequently register net monthly outflows. Foreign states are no longer passively absorbing U.S. deficit issuance at historical rates.
CIPS Network Trajectory:
Clearing volume on China’s alternative to SWIFT has accelerated past an annualized $25T+ equivalent, connecting nearly 1,800 participating institutions across over 100 countries.
Panda Bond Issuance:
Foreign sovereign and supranational issuers tapping China's domestic bond market to borrow directly in RMB have pushed cumulative outstanding volume beyond RMB 500 billion, locking in 2 to 3% yields rather than issuing dollar debt.
What Could Cause This to Speed Up?
Aggressive Secondary Sanctions Overreach
The primary accelerator of de-dollarization is the weaponization of the dollar itself. If the U.S. imposes broad secondary sanctions on major non-aligned nations (e.g., sanctioning Indian, Turkish, or Emirati banks for trading with China or Russia), it forces neutral countries to preemptively construct non-dollar settlement rails to protect their own trade flows.
"Higher for Longer" U.S. Interest Rates
The math behind Kenya and Ethiopia’s debt conversion was straightforward: paying 7.5% on floating USD loans versus 3% on Chinese RMB loans. If stubborn U.S. inflation or surging deficit supply forces U.S. yields back up, dollar debt service becomes unsustainable for emerging markets. Borrowers will actively demand debt conversion into lower-yielding currencies simply to avoid default.
Official Pricing of Key Commodities Outside USD
The petrodollar is the bedrock of non-discretionary dollar demand. If major energy or commodity exporters (such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Brazil) move from settling bilateral volumes in local currencies to officially invoicing and benchmarking raw materials in yuan or multi currency baskets, global buyers will no longer need to hold massive structural dollar cushions.
TGtg! Short 
Long 
NASDAQ 100: Three Forces Driving Tech Right NowNASDAQ 100 is trading near 29,268 after bouncing from the 28,920 support area. The move is not just technical — three forces are pulling the market in different directions.
First, AI sentiment is under pressure. Reuters reports that global AI-linked stocks fell after major AI leaders called for slowing development because of safety risks. This hit chip and AI infrastructure names, including Nvidia, AMD, SoftBank and ASML. For NASDAQ, this matters because AI optimism has been one of the main drivers behind tech valuations.
Second, valuation pressure remains a risk. When bond yields stay elevated, expensive growth and semiconductor stocks become more vulnerable to profit-taking.
Third, the chart is trying to stabilize. NASDAQ defended 28,920 and reclaimed EMA 9 and SMA 50, while RSI improved and MACD turned positive. However, the index still needs to break the 29,308–29,350 resistance zone to confirm a stronger recovery.
Scenario: above 29,350, buyers may target 29,750. If price rejects from this zone, 29,150, 29,000 and 28,920 return to focus.
Key idea: AI headlines are negative, but the chart has not broken down. NASDAQ is caught between weaker AI sentiment and a technical rebound from support.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
Bullish rebound in play?UK100 has bounced off the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support, and could potentially rise towards the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 10,589.16
1st Support: 10,452.55
1st Resistance: 10,710.25
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Stocks Limp into the FedThe S&P 500 has been trying to hold its June high, and some traders may think it will break support.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price zone between 7,563 and 7,618. It matches the trading range on June 1, an outside reversal day at record highs. The index stayed under that area in June and July, followed by a breakout in August.
SPX bounced near the zone in August and earlier this month. However, there was little follow-through and prices have returned to the range. Is support finally breaking?
Second, the current price action is happening at the 50-day simple moving average. That could reflect a weakening intermediate-term trend.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. MACD is also falling. Those signals are potentially consistent with short-term bearishness.
Finally, 7,273 was the high on May 5 before a bullish gap. SPX bounced near that level in June and again in late July. That could make traders expect probing toward the same area, especially with energy prices and yields rising.
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Could a Support Breakdown Trigger a Deeper Correction?FTSE 100 | Could a Support Breakdown Trigger a Deeper Correction? 📉⚠️
Hello everyone and welcome back to all my TradingView followers! 👋📊
I hope you're all doing well and, as always, trading with discipline and proper risk management.
Today I’m looking at the FTSE 100 on the Daily timeframe, where price is currently approaching a very important technical decision point amid increasing global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
🌍 Fundamental View | Global Markets Under Pressure
Global markets have recently shifted back toward a more Risk-Off environment.
Higher oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions, rising bond yields and growing inflation concerns are creating a challenging backdrop for global equities.
The FTSE 100 also came under pressure today, falling around 0.6% toward 10,634, as higher oil prices increased inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher.
🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Risk
One of the biggest risks for global markets right now is the potential escalation of military tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
According to today's reports, commercial shipping through Hormuz has fallen dramatically, with only four commodity vessels transiting the waterway on Monday versus an estimated pre-war average of around 125 daily transits. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has also declined.
If military tensions escalate again and shipping disruptions intensify, the market could face the following chain reaction:
Geopolitical Escalation → Higher Oil → Higher Inflation → Higher Yields → Lower Risk Appetite 📉
That could create additional pressure on global equities.
The FTSE 100 does have relatively high exposure to energy and commodity companies, which can provide some protection when oil prices rise. However, if higher energy prices translate into persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy, that support could become less effective.
📊 Technical Analysis | FTSE 100 Daily
Technically, the current structure is very interesting. 👀
Price is currently trading around 10,650, right near the key support area.
🟡 First Support:
10,574
This level is currently very important.
Below it, the next major support zone is:
🟡 10,166 – 10,002
This area could become the next potential downside target if the current support fails.
🐻 Bearish Scenario
Price has already weakened below the rising trendline that supported the previous bullish structure.
If:
10,574 → breaks
and the daily candle confirms the breakdown below this level, the probability of a deeper correction increases significantly. 📉
The next potential targets would be:
🎯 10,166
followed by:
🎯 10,002
So the potential bearish path would be:
10,574 → 10,166 → 10,002
If geopolitical tensions intensify further and global risk appetite deteriorates, even lower support levels could eventually become relevant.
🐂 Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario is not invalidated yet.
The major resistance on the chart is around:
🔴 10,887
If buyers defend the current support, reclaim the rising trendline and eventually break above 10,887, the current bearish structure could be invalidated.
In that case:
Breakout → Retest → Confirmation
would provide a much stronger setup for bullish continuation. 🟢📈
For now, I would rather wait for confirmation than try to predict the next major move.
🧠 Final View
In my opinion, the FTSE 100 is currently sitting at a very important decision point.
The market is dealing with:
🛢️ Higher oil prices
⚔️ Renewed Middle East military risks
🚢 Disruption around strategic shipping routes
📈 Higher bond yields
🔥 Inflation concerns
📉 Lower global risk appetite
Recent reports also show that escalating regional tensions and disruptions to energy routes are weighing on investor sentiment.
At the same time, the FTSE 100 has not yet confirmed a decisive breakdown below 10,574.
Therefore, this is the key level I am watching:
🔴 Break and daily confirmation below 10,574 → Higher probability of a correction toward 10,166 and 10,002.
🟢 Support holds → Potential recovery toward 10,887.
If geopolitical risks intensify and oil prices surge again, the probability of a deeper correction should not be underestimated. ⚠️
For now, I consider the support breakdown more important than trying to predict the direction in advance.
🗳️ What is your view?
Where do you think the FTSE 100 is heading next? 🤔
🟢 Bullish: Support holds and price moves back toward 10,887.
🔴 Bearish: 10,574 breaks and the index moves toward 10,166–10,002.
🟡 Neutral: More consolidation before the next major move.
What's your view? Share it in the comments! 👇💬
⚠️ Disclaimer |
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management before making any investment decision.
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