NAS100 Ready to Fall? | High-Probability Short Setup🎯 US100 "NASDAQ 100" INDEX CFD — Institutional Bearish Playbook (Day/Swing Trade) 💹📉🔥
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — Thief OG's 🖤
The vault is open on the Nasdaq 100 and the crew's eyes are locked on the getaway route. Here's the full institutional-style breakdown — technical precision meets street-smart execution. Let's move. 🎯🕶️
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🚪 VAULT ZONE (ENTRY)
You can enter at any price level within the current structure — flexibility is your edge here. No rush, no chase. 🕵️♂️
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🏁 GETAWAY POINTS (PROFIT TARGETS)
🥇 Day Trader Getaway (TP1): @ 28,000
🏆 Final Heist Target (TP2): @ 27,500 — Police Force Zone acting as strong support + oversold pocket + potential trap + trend-change zone. Escape with profits before the barricade tightens.
🚨
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's) — I'm not recommending you rely only on my TP. It's your own call. Make money then take money at your own risk. 🎲
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🛑 THIEF SL (STOP LOSS)
@ 29,500
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's) — I'm not recommending you rely only on my SL. It's your own call. Make money then take money at your own risk. 🎲
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH
📌 PEPPERSTONE:US500 (S&P 500) ≈ $7,480–7,534 — moves in tight positive correlation with US100; tech-heavy Nasdaq usually leads S&P swings.
📌 CAPITALCOM:US30 (Dow Jones) ≈ $52,500–52,571 — weaker correlation since Dow carries fewer tech/AI names; divergence here can hint at sector rotation.
📌 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) ≈ 100.74 — inverse correlation; dollar strength typically pressures Nasdaq mega-caps and risk assets lower.
📌 TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) ≈ 16.7–18.4 — inverse correlation; rising VIX often accompanies Nasdaq downside pressure.
📌 FX:USDJPY ≈ 162.40 — yen carry-trade unwind risk; sharp JPY moves can spill volatility into US tech futures.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO FACTORS (NEUTRAL — WHAT THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY SHOWING)
📍 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has taken a notably hawkish tone in recent congressional testimony, with futures markets now pricing rate-hike odds (not cuts) into September/October rather than easing.
📍 This week's CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data are the market's core focus — inflation readings have come in mixed, with core services inflation still sticky.
📍 VIX has jumped sharply from recent lows, reflecting rising hedging demand and risk-off positioning.
📍 A tech/chipmaker selloff spread globally this week (SK Hynix, Samsung weakness) after AI-valuation concerns resurfaced, weighing on Nasdaq sentiment.
📍 Escalating US–Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted crude oil prices, adding a fresh macro risk-off layer across equities.
📍 Next major catalyst: FOMC rate decision — no directional bias implied, purely a calendar fact.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🗓️ UPCOMING HIGH-IMPACT ECONOMIC CALENDAR (LONDON TIME 🇬🇧)
⏰ 13:30 London — US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
⏰ 15:00 London — NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories
⏰ 21:00 London — TIC Long-Term Flows
⏰ 19:00 London (July 29) — FOMC Interest Rate Decision + Fed Press Conference
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💬 THIEF TRADER MOTIVATION
"A real thief doesn't chase the vault — the vault comes to those who wait with patience and precision." 🖤
"Discipline is the mask that hides fear. Wear it every trade." 🎭
"We don't predict the market, we plan the heist around it." 🔑
Stay sharp, stay patient, and protect your capital like it's the last bag in the vault. Let's secure this getaway together. 🏃♂️💨
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading CFDs and indices carries a high level of risk. Always manage your own risk and trade responsibly. 
Short
Long
Long
Short
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) – Professional Technical AnaThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is currently trading within a short-term corrective phase after failing to sustain momentum above the recent swing high near 52,900. Price action has formed a sequence of lower highs, indicating that buyers are losing control while sellers gradually gain momentum.
Technical Outlook
The market is trading below a key intraday resistance around 52,450, making this level an attractive short-entry zone.
Recent candles show repeated rejection from higher prices, confirming increasing selling pressure.
The inability to break above the latest lower high keeps the short-term bias bearish.
Trade Setup
Entry (Sell): 52,450
Stop Loss: 52,950
First Target: 50,750
Risk-to-Reward
This setup provides a favorable Risk-to-Reward ratio of approximately 1:3.4, making it an attractive opportunity if price confirms rejection around the entry level.
Key Technical Factors
Lower High structure remains intact.
Bearish rejection candles near resistance.
Momentum is weakening after the previous bullish impulse.
Failure to reclaim 52,450–52,500 would likely accelerate downside pressure.
Trading Plan
A confirmed rejection from the 52,450 resistance area can trigger a move toward 50,750 as the initial downside objective. If bearish momentum strengthens, additional selling pressure could extend the decline toward lower support levels.
However, a sustained breakout and close above 52,950 would invalidate the bearish scenario, suggesting buyers have regained control and increasing the probability of continuation toward new highs.
Bias: Bearish (Intraday / Short-Term) 📉
Entry: 52,450
Stop Loss: 52,950
Target 1: 50,750 Short 
S&P 500 at Potential Reversal Zone—Is a Bigger Correction Next?The S&P 500 ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) reacted strongly to the recent support zone($7,463-$7,430) and Support Lines, which led to another bullish move. However, the index is currently trading near the key trading level of $7,500 and the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) .
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Wave C appears to have been completed through an Ending Diagonal pattern. The lower trendline of this pattern has already been broken, and the S&P 500 is currently pulling back to retest it.
I expect the S&P 500 to break below the support zone($7,463-$7,430) and support lines in the coming sessions and decline at least toward the $7,413 level.
Target: $7,413
Stop Loss(SL): $7,548
Note: Since tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, any related news could have an immediate impact on the S&P 500. Therefore, be sure to monitor geopolitical developments closely and manage your risk carefully.
Note: If the S&P 500 begins to decline with strong bearish momentum, it could have a rapid and direct impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ).
What’s your view on the S&P 500? Do you think it can print new all-time highs again, or should we expect a deeper correction?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends. 
Short
Long 
How Do They Value Stocks in 2026? Count the Valuation ShortcutsIn March 2001, Gretchen Morgenson documented the unusual language Wall Street had adopted during the dot-com boom. Earnings were being replaced by page views, website traffic, “mind share,” engaged shoppers and conveniently adjusted profits.
Once the bubble burst, those measures looked less like innovation and more like ways to avoid discussing business economics.
It is tempting to look at today’s artificial-intelligence boom and reach a simple conclusion: this is the internet bubble all over again, only with GPUs instead of websites.
That comparison is understandable. It is also incomplete.
NVIDIA reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue in May 2026, an 85% increase from a year earlier, with a 74.9% GAAP gross margin. Alphabet’s Google Cloud generated $6.6 billion in quarterly operating income. Oracle earned approximately $17 billion under GAAP during fiscal 2026.
These are not imaginary businesses surviving on clicks and press releases. They sell real products to paying customers and, in several cases, produce substantial profits.
But here is the uncomfortable part: real technology does not automatically produce a reasonably priced stock.
A business can transform an industry while its investors still pay too much for it. The problem begins when an operating metric stops being evidence and starts being treated as valuation itself.
There is still only one durable bridge:
Operating metric → Revenue → Operating profit → Taxes → Reinvestment → Free cash flow → Risk and probability → Present value
Put differently, a large number on a presentation slide is only the beginning of a valuation. It is not the conclusion.
If an analysis never completes that bridge, it is not really valuing a business. It is pricing a story.
Here are six valuation shortcuts appearing in the 2026 market.
1. Backlog Is Treated Like Banked Cash
Backlog and remaining performance obligations, or RPO, are useful numbers. They can reveal customer demand, contracted business and future revenue visibility.
What they do not represent is cash already sitting in the bank.
CoreWeave ended the first quarter of 2026 with $99.4 billion in revenue backlog, compared with quarterly revenue of $2.08 billion. Oracle ended fiscal 2026 with $638 billion in RPO against $67.4 billion in annual revenue—roughly nine and a half times one year’s sales.
Those figures deserve attention. But they also require several follow-up questions.
A contract may take years to turn into recognized revenue. Before that happens, infrastructure must be built and services must be delivered. GPUs, data centres, electricity, financing and maintenance all cost money.
Customer concentration matters too. Some commitments may depend on capacity becoming available or other performance conditions being met.
Even after the revenue arrives, it still needs to produce an acceptable margin. That margin then has to survive the reinvestment required to keep the business competitive.
Oracle’s own figures demonstrate this tension. The company generated approximately $32 billion in operating cash flow during fiscal 2026, yet free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion as it invested heavily in cloud infrastructure.
To be clear, that does not prove Oracle’s investment is unwise. The spending may create substantial value later.
It simply proves that one dollar of backlog is not worth one dollar today.
“Price-to-backlog” becomes a valuation shortcut when it ignores when the revenue will arrive, what it will cost to deliver and how much capital must be committed before shareholders see any cash.
2. Adjusted EBITDA Is Treated Like Free Cash Flow
CoreWeave provides a striking example of what might be called denominator shopping.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported:
$2.08 billion in revenue;
$1.16 billion in adjusted EBITDA;
a 56% adjusted EBITDA margin;
a $144 million operating loss;
a $740 million net loss;
$536 million in net interest expense; and
$6.8 billion in capital expenditure.
Every one of those figures can be correct at the same time. They simply answer different questions.
This is where accounting vocabulary can distract from the underlying business.
Adjusted EBITDA shows earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and selected company adjustments. In some circumstances, it can provide a useful supplementary view of operating performance.
But context matters.
For an AI-infrastructure company spending more than three times its quarterly revenue on capital expenditure, depreciation and financing are not minor accounting details. Expensive equipment must be purchased, funded, maintained and eventually replaced.
Interest is not optional when debt helps finance the infrastructure on which the business depends.
Stock-based compensation deserves similar attention. It may not consume cash in the current period, but issuing additional shares reduces the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. That is still an economic cost.
The SEC has repeatedly warned that non-GAAP measures can mislead when normal recurring expenses disappear from the calculation or when companies change how their adjustments are defined.
Adjusted EBITDA is not the problem. Treating it as the final answer is the shortcut.
3. Capacity Is Treated Like Economics
The AI-infrastructure cycle has introduced a new vocabulary to the market:
GPUs deployed;
megawatts energized;
gigawatts contracted;
clusters installed; and
tokens processed.
These metrics matter operationally. A cloud provider cannot sell computing capacity it does not possess, and access to reliable power can be a genuine competitive advantage.
CoreWeave reported more than one gigawatt of active power and more than 3.5 gigawatts of contracted power in the first quarter of 2026.
Still, a gigawatt is capacity—not value.
That distinction sounds obvious, but it is easily lost when the numbers become large enough.
Before that capacity can be valued, investors need to know:
How much of it will actually be used?
What price will customers pay?
How concentrated are those customers?
What will the electricity cost?
How quickly will the equipment become outdated?
How much maintenance and replacement spending will be required?
What financing costs must be paid?
What return will the company earn on the capital invested?
The same mistake appeared during the telecom boom. Investors admired miles of fibre-optic cable before asking whether those networks could earn acceptable returns.
Scarce infrastructure can be extraordinarily valuable. Excess infrastructure can destroy prices and returns.
The physical asset alone does not reveal which outcome investors are purchasing.
“Price-to-megawatts” is not a recognized valuation standard. It is a warning that someone may be counting capacity without calculating its economics.
4. Activity Is Treated Like Monetization
The dot-com era had page views. The AI era has prompts, tokens, users, seats, agents and enormous percentage-growth figures.
Alphabet reported that 330 Google Cloud customers had each processed more than one trillion tokens during the twelve months preceding the first quarter of 2026. It also said revenue from products built using its generative-AI models had increased nearly 800% year over year.
An 800% growth rate sounds spectacular. But without knowing the starting point, the percentage alone tells us surprisingly little.
A small business can grow at an enormous rate and remain a relatively small business.
This does not make the growth figure useless. It means the figure needs context.
Alphabet also demonstrates how usage metrics should be presented. Alongside its adoption figures, the company reported:
$109.9 billion in consolidated quarterly revenue;
$6.6 billion in Google Cloud operating income; and
a 32.9% Cloud operating margin.
It discussed monetization while also warning that 2026 capital expenditure could reach $180–190 billion, bringing additional depreciation and energy costs.
That creates a more complete bridge between activity and economics.
Usage metrics are valuable when they help predict customer retention, pricing power, revenue, margins or falling unit costs.
They become a valuation shortcut when nobody can explain who pays, how much they pay, what it costs to serve them and whether additional activity produces additional cash.
Activity is evidence of adoption. It is not automatically evidence of value.
5. Optionality Is Treated Like Certainty
Tesla demonstrates how one company can contain an established business and several enormous future possibilities at the same time.
In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla generated $22.39 billion in revenue and $477 million in net income attributable to common shareholders. It also spent $2.49 billion on capital expenditure and recorded $1.03 billion in stock-based compensation.
Its investor materials discussed vehicles and energy storage alongside:
Robotaxi;
autonomous-driving software;
AI infrastructure;
semiconductors; and
Optimus humanoid robots.
On 16 July, Tesla’s market capitalization was approximately $1.47 trillion, while its trailing price-to-earnings ratio was about 357.
The current automotive business alone cannot easily explain that valuation. Investors are clearly assigning substantial value to businesses expected to become much larger in the future.
There is nothing inherently wrong with doing that.
A sum-of-the-parts model is a legitimate valuation method, and optionality can have real value. The difficulty is deciding how much value each possibility deserves today.
Robotaxis, humanoid robots, autonomy software, energy products and vehicles all compete for capital, engineering talent, management attention and time.
Each opportunity needs its own:
commercialization date;
probability of success;
competitive assumptions;
expected margins;
reinvestment requirements; and
discount rate.
The risks may also be connected. A delay in AI execution could affect several projects together rather than only one isolated segment.
This is where optimism can quietly enter the model twice: first through aggressive forecasts and again through an unrealistically high probability of success.
Adding every optimistic scenario at full value does not produce a sum of the parts. It produces a sum of the dreams.
6. Distant Earnings Are Valued as Though Time Were Free
The further a valuation reaches into the future, the more sensitive it becomes to time, uncertainty and the discount rate.
On 15 July 2026, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 4.55%. That is only a baseline. Investors in a risky equity would normally expect additional compensation above the return available from a government bond.
Yet the Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report said that the S&P 500 forward P/E remained near the upper end of its historical range. One estimate of the equity premium was also near a 20-year low.
A separate calculation based on Robert Shiller’s data placed the June 2026 CAPE ratio at approximately 39.5. The December 1999 peak was around 44.2.
These figures require careful interpretation.
They do not prove that the market must crash tomorrow. Valuation has never been a reliable short-term timer. Expensive markets can become more expensive, and strong businesses can continue exceeding expectations.
What high valuation tells us is that the market has already accepted a demanding collection of assumptions about future growth, profitability and risk.
This becomes particularly important when analysts move past current economics and begin valuing revenue or earnings expected in 2030 and beyond.
A distant estimate is not automatically wrong. It becomes fragile when the model does not explain:
the path to that estimate;
the investment needed to reach it;
the probability of success; and
the discount rate used to translate it into today’s money.
Future money is worth less than present money, and an uncertain forecast is worth less than a guaranteed result.
Time is not free. Uncertainty tends to compound with it.
Why 2026 Is Not 2000—And Why That Does Not Settle the Question
The strongest AI companies of 2026 are financially different from many speculative companies associated with the dot-com era.
NVIDIA’s quarterly revenue grew 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, while Data Center revenue reached $75.2 billion. Alphabet’s Cloud division produced substantial operating income. Oracle generated real GAAP earnings and operating cash flow.
The AI investment cycle is supported by actual customer spending, not simply website traffic and investor enthusiasm.
The broader market has not been uniformly narrow either. During the second quarter of 2026, the S&P MidCap 400 gained approximately 14%, while the S&P SmallCap 600 gained about 20%.
That broadening complicates any claim that the entire market rally rests on a handful of AI stocks.
Still, concentration remains significant.
S&P Dow Jones Indices reported that the ten largest companies were approaching 40% of the S&P 500 by the middle of 2025. Its live index information showed a top-ten weight of approximately 36.4% when checked on 17 July 2026.
When a small group of companies represents such a large share of an index, assumptions about their future growth influence what investors casually describe as “the market.”
The sensible conclusion is not that AI is fake. It is that technological truth and investment value are separate questions.
The internet changed the world. Many internet stocks still collapsed.
Artificial intelligence may transform the economy. Investors can still pay too much for that transformation.
Both statements can be true at once.
A Better Valuation Test
Before accepting an unfamiliar operating metric as evidence of value, ask:
What financial result is this metric supposed to predict?
How does one additional user, token, contract, GPU or megawatt affect revenue?
What is the incremental gross and operating margin?
How much capital expenditure and working capital will be required?
Which normal recurring costs have been removed from adjusted results?
How much dilution is created by stock-based compensation?
How concentrated are the company’s customers and suppliers?
What must happen—and by when—for the optimistic scenario to succeed?
What probability and discount rate have been applied?
What measurable development would prove the thesis wrong?
The final question may be the most important.
A valuation thesis should be capable of being proven wrong. If every disappointing result can be explained away by pointing to an even more distant opportunity, the analysis has stopped testing the story and started protecting it.
If these ten questions have convincing answers, an unconventional metric may provide valuable insight.
If they do not, the metric may be performing the same function that “engaged shoppers” performed a quarter-century ago: offering investors a sufficiently large number so they can postpone confronting the underlying economics.
The Final Count
How do they value stocks in 2026?
By backlog, as though it were cash.
By adjusted EBITDA, as though capital had no cost.
By gigawatts, as though capacity guaranteed returns.
By activity, as though usage guaranteed monetization.
By optionality, as though every future business would succeed.
And by distant earnings, as though time and risk were free.
None of these metrics is inherently meaningless. Each can reveal something useful about a business.
The mistake is allowing one of them to become a substitute for the complete valuation process.
A metric can begin the analysis. It cannot finish it.
Historical framing: Gretchen Morgenson, “How Did They Value Stocks? Count the Absurd Ways,” The New York Times, 18 March 2001, included in her Pulitzer Prize-winning work. Research references include Federal Reserve and FRED reports, SEC filings, S&P Dow Jones Indices data, Robert Shiller’s dataset and dated company earnings disclosures. The chart design and 2026 analysis are original to this publication.
Educational analysis only. Market and company figures are dated snapshots and are not investment recommendations.
Not Every Tokenized Stock Is Built the Same
Tokenized equities are becoming one of the fastest-growing areas within Real World Assets (RWA).
But there’s one question that deserves more attention:
Where does the price actually come from?
Many traders focus on the asset itself while overlooking the infrastructure behind it.
Yet the pricing mechanism often determines the trading experience.
Price Discovery Matters
Traditional stock exchanges rely on millions of buyers and sellers competing in a transparent order book.
Some tokenized products, however, depend on alternative pricing mechanisms such as oracles, synthetic references, or market-maker quotations.
These systems often function well under normal conditions.
But during periods of low liquidity or heightened volatility, temporary price deviations may occur.
That’s when traders begin seeing unusually large spreads, unexpected wicks, or execution prices that differ from the underlying market.
Liquidity Is More Than Tight Spreads
Many traders associate liquidity with lower transaction costs.
In reality, liquidity is also an important component of risk management.
Deeper markets generally provide:
More consistent execution
Better price discovery
Reduced slippage
Greater resilience during volatile conditions
The source of liquidity matters just as much as its size.
Infrastructure Will Become the Next Competitive Advantage
As the RWA ecosystem matures, investors are likely to compare not only which assets are available, but also how those assets are traded.
Execution quality, transparency, and market depth may ultimately prove more important than simply offering tokenized exposure.
Final Thoughts
Understanding how prices are created is becoming just as important as understanding technical analysis.Some newer tokenized equity infrastructures have begun connecting more directly with regulated US equity markets rather than relying solely on synthetic pricing mechanisms. As the industry develops, this may become one of the key differentiators traders pay attention to. Education 
Did you lose your $SOX?The chart sure looks like it did!!
NASDAQ:SOX is slipping through an air pocket. There is no meaningful support until much lower. The index broke trend, momentum is accelerating, and RSI is sliding toward oversold but not quite there yet.
The next real shelves (where to find more NASDAQ:SOXX , should we just stop with the joke?!) are down at the 8k area, the GAP. Those aren’t predictions, they’re simply the next structural levels on the chart.
Momentum is picking up on the downside, histogram turning red, and moving averages rolling over. This isn’t a dip inside an uptrend; it’s a trend transition with weakening breadth across semis.
A ray of light! The Weekly view:
Daily prints little to no hope BUT NASDAQ:SOX may finally be running into some support on the weekly timeframe! Price is touching the weekly moving averages, and RSI is hitting the 50 zone, historically a place where the indices pause or stabilized. It doesn’t confirm a reversal, but it does introduce the first real chance for downside momentum to cool if buyers step in. Weekend Risk Doesn’t Stop When Wall Street ClosesEvery trader has experienced it.
A major geopolitical event breaks on Saturday.
An AI company surprises the market with new guidance on Sunday.
The Federal Reserve releases an unexpected statement over the weekend.
Yet one thing remains unchanged:
Traditional equity markets are closed.
By the time Monday’s opening bell rings, the market has already digested much of the new information through futures, options, and investor expectations. Retail traders are often forced to react to an opening gap instead of the news itself.
Markets Never Truly Sleep
Price discovery doesn’t simply pause because exchanges are closed.
Investors continue reassessing valuations based on fresh information:
Economic data
Geopolitical developments
Earnings updates
Policy announcements
Supply chain disruptions
The market keeps thinking, even when trading pauses.
This disconnect between information flow and market access creates one of the biggest inefficiencies in traditional equity trading.
Trading Is Becoming Continuous
Crypto introduced traders to something very different:
Markets that rarely stop.
Whether you trade Bitcoin or Ethereum, reacting to breaking news within minutes has become normal. That expectation is beginning to influence how investors think about traditional assets as well.
As financial markets continue evolving, access may become just as important as analysis.
A Different Way to Think About Risk
Weekend risk isn’t simply about volatility.
It’s about optionality.
Having the ability to reduce exposure, hedge a position, or express a new market view before Monday can fundamentally change portfolio management.
Even if a trader ultimately chooses not to act, having the choice itself carries value.
Final Thoughts
The future of markets may not be defined solely by better analysis, but by fewer trading constraints.
This is one reason tokenized US equities have attracted increasing attention. Some platforms now allow selected US stocks to remain tradable beyond traditional exchange hours, giving traders another way to respond when markets—and news—don’t follow a Monday-to-Friday schedule. Education 
Short
Long 
Long 
NAS100: Tech selloff deepens as AI momentum fades📉 NAS100: Tech selloff deepens as AI momentum fades
🎯 Trade setup:
Direction: Short from pullback
🔻 Entry: 28,700-28,760
🛑 Stop Loss: 29,060
🎯 Take Profit 1: 28,430
🎯 Take Profit 2: 28,000
📰 News :
NAS100 remains under pressure as the selloff in tech and semiconductor stocks continues. Nasdaq futures were reported lower as chip stocks weakened, with investors questioning whether AI-related valuations are still justified. Netflix also added pressure after a weak outlook, while broader risk sentiment stayed fragile due to renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices.
📊 Analysis:
On the 1H chart, NAS100 is in a strong bearish impulse. Price is trading near 28,470, below short-term moving averages, and sellers are still controlling the structure. The key support is around 28,430. If this level breaks, downside pressure may continue.
RSI is already near oversold territory, so a short-term bounce is possible. But MACD remains negative, which means the rebound still looks corrective unless price reclaims stronger resistance.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Short 
NSDQ100 - further volatility ahead?The NASDAQ 100 is under renewed pressure as investors continue to rotate out of AI and large-cap technology stocks, extending the recent correction. The index is expected to open lower after the S&P 500 fell 0.51% yesterday, with US futures pointing to further weakness. The sell-off has spread across global markets, with Japan's Nikkei plunging 4.8%, while Chinese equities have also posted heavy losses, reflecting a broad deterioration in risk sentiment.
The weakness has been driven by a combination of disappointing technology earnings and renewed concerns over inflation. TSMC is trading sharply lower after guiding for higher-than-expected capital expenditure, raising questions about near-term profitability despite continued AI demand. Meanwhile, Netflix dropped almost 9% in after-hours trading after earnings failed to impress, adding further pressure to the technology sector.
Macro concerns are also resurfacing. Brent crude has climbed above $85 per barrel, reviving fears that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and delay future Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has weighed particularly heavily on growth stocks, which remain sensitive to higher interest rate expectations.
Another notable development has been the continued weakness in gold, which has fallen below $4,000/oz for the first time this year. The decline suggests investors are reducing defensive positions as Treasury yields remain elevated and inflation expectations become more uncertain.
Today's economic calendar could provide further volatility. Traders will focus on US industrial production, housing starts, building permits, capacity utilisation and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep policy restrictive for longer, potentially adding further pressure to the NASDAQ 100, while softer figures may provide some relief to technology stocks. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's comments will also be closely monitored for any guidance on the outlook for interest rates.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Wyckoff Distribution in Phase BMarket tops are not a point. Wyckoff's Distribution pattern is well-established in market lore as the unwinding of bullish exuberance.
A massive face-ripping runup in Phase A accumulation leads to a blowoff top which we saw in April >May with Buying Climax (BC).
The unsustainable bullish move ends in an Automatic Reaction (AR), or rejection of the ATH. The depth of the AR forms a support line for the Trading Range (TR) of the Phase B cycle in distribution.
What is distribution? It's the systematic unloading of huge positions by 'smart money' institutional investors selling to the rest of us, soon to be bagholders for the big players.
The AR after ATH leads to a Secondary Test (ST) which is typically slightly lower than the ATH. A series of dumps and pumps follows within the TR established by the AR bottom price after ATH.
During Phase B there is expected a Sign of Weakness (SOW), which may be a deep selloff or series of selloffs, followed by a further upthrust after dsitribution (UTAD), which can exceed the BC ATH, or form a double top.
UTAD rapidly suffers a sharp reaction and produces a further SOW which often ends in another ST to the Last Point of Support (LPSY). NB: LPSY marks the end of Phase C in distribution, beyond which further advances are not to be expected. After LPSY price enters MARKDOWN PHASE D.
It is impossible to predict the exact form of every top. Some have multiple upthrusts and SOWs. Typically there may be three thrusts, these can form a series of lower highs, a Head and Shoulders pattern or a Three Drives pattern in which the ATH occurs at end of Phase B and marks entry to phase C at LPSY. Sometimes there is only a Double Top.
This theory CANNOT PREDICT THE FUTURE but is very useful in understanding that you are about to be taken to the cleaners and be left holding the BAG.
NB: Wyckoff Rule 1: The Market and Individual Securities Never Behave in the Same Way Twice!
Rather, trends unfold through a broad array of similar price patterns that show infinite variations in size, detail, and extension. Each incarnation changes just enough from prior patterns to surprise and confuse market participants.
Rule 2: The Significance of Price Movements Reveals Itself Only When Compared to Past Price Behavior: Wyckoff described a 'Composite Man' who moves price according to his own interest. Today's PA is a result of the price moves of previous days, weeks and months. Composite Man consists of all the institutions, traders and participants all ganged up against YOU! Composite Man's prime motivation: taking YOUR money.
Wyckoff Theory: www.marketcalls.in
Short 
Will the Nasdaq 100 Continue Its Correction?Fundamental outlook
Technology stocks continue to face a combination of factors that are keeping investors cautious, chief among them the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the path of US monetary policy. Continued strength in economic data or a renewed rise in inflationary pressures could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer, weighing on the valuations of growth companies, particularly the technology stocks that make up a large portion of the Nasdaq 100.
Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the upcoming earnings reports from major technology companies.
Management guidance on artificial intelligence spending and revenue growth is expected to be one of the key drivers determining the index's next direction. At the same time, developments related to tariffs and global trade remain potential sources of market volatility, particularly for the semiconductor industry and global supply chains.
In addition, profit-taking in semiconductor stocks, which have been the primary driver of the AI-led rally over recent months, has added further pressure on the Nasdaq. This comes as investors increasingly question whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure can generate returns that justify current elevated valuations. At the same time, some investors have begun shifting their attention toward cloud computing companies and hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, as potential beneficiaries of the next phase of AI, with the market's focus gradually moving from building AI infrastructure to generating revenue from AI applications.
Technical Outlook
The Nasdaq is trading within a downtrend, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting continued bearish momentum and seller dominance in the short term. Traders are closely watching the 28,187.67 level, which has served as a key support level since June 26, 2026. A confirmed break and close below this level could open the door for further selling pressure and a decline toward lower price levels. 
Short
