2025 breakout in NIFTY INTERNET INDEXNifty India Internet Index – Technical Analysis
Price Action & Trend
- The index has shown a strong recovery since early 2026, with consecutive bullish weekly candles.
- Current weekly close at 1,477.10 is very near the weekly high of 1,478.55, suggesting buyers are in control.
- The higher highs and higher lows pattern confirms an ongoing uptrend.
Key Levels
- Resistance Zone: 1,478–1,480 (weekly high). A breakout above this level could open room for further upside.
- Support Zone: 1,443–1,445 (weekly low). Holding above this zone keeps the bullish structure intact.
- Daily Low: 1,474.50 acts as immediate intraday support.
Indicators (SmartWay Suite)
- SmartWay Dynamic Support: Price is respecting support levels, showing strength in trend continuation.
- SmartWay Teji Pro Indicator: Likely flashing bullish momentum signals, aligning with the breakout attempt.
- SmartWay Breakout & MTF Leveller: Confirms multi‑timeframe breakout potential near 1,478.
Technical Outlook
- If price sustains above 1,478, next upside targets could be 1,495–1,510 in the short term.
- Failure to break 1,478 may lead to consolidation between 1,445–1,478.
- Trend remains bullish unless weekly close falls below 1,443.
Sentiment & Strategy
- Bullish Bias: Traders may look for long entries above 1,478 with tight stop‑loss near 1,474.
- Risk Management: Watch for false breakouts; weekly close confirmation is key.
- Medium‑Term View: Internet sector strength suggests continued momentum, but overextension near resistance could trigger profit booking. 
Long
SPX500 4H: Descending Channel Continuation & Support Breakdown1. Market Context
On the 4H chart, S&P 500 Index (SPX500) has been trading inside a structured blue descending channel following a harsh rejection from the top resistance ceiling (7,780.0 – 7,820.0). Price has now rolled over and is breaking below the key horizontal demand zone (7,580.0 – 7,620.0) at 7,596.1, signaling a bearish channel continuation.
2. Sentiment & House Trap Analysis
• Where Traders Place Orders: Retail traders opened BUY positions around the 7,580.0 – 7,620.0 cyan box, assuming previous resistance would act as a reliable support floor for a bounce back toward 7,700.0+.
• Trader Stop-Loss & Target: These dip buyers placed tight Stop-Loss orders immediately below 7,580.0. Shorters from the upper trendline rejection placed SLs above 7,672.7.
• How the House Plays It: The House capped the pullback at 7,672.7 to establish a clear lower high along the channel structure. By forcing price to slice through 7,596.1, the House is triggering a cascade of forced panic sell-stop orders from trapped buyers. This liquidation pressure will propel SPX500 down toward 7,519.6 (TP1 - red liquidity box top), 7,443.1 (TP2), and 7,366.6 (TP3).
3. Trade Setup
• Entry: 7,596.1 (Confirmed 4H close breaking below cyan support zone & channel midline)
• Stop Loss (SL): 7,672.7 (Placed safely above the recent lower-high rejection peak)
• Take Profit 1 (TP1): 7,519.6 (Targeting the red imbalance/liquidity zone)
• Take Profit 2 (TP2): 7,443.1
• Take Profit 3 (TP3): 7,366.6
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx 3.0:1 (Calculated toward TP3) 
Short
DXY: Hot CPI Won't Save the Dollar Unless 99.95 FallsAugust CPI just came in hot — 0.4% headline, 0.3% core — and the dollar barely flinched. DXY is sitting around 99.10, right on its short-term support, and the question isn't whether inflation is sticky. It's whether the market still cares.
🌍 Why This Matters Now
The BLS dropped August CPI on September 11, and the headline print was a surprise: 0.4% MoM, up from 0.2% in July and above the 0.3% consensus. Core CPI held at 0.3% MoM for the second straight month, with the year-over-year rate at 3.1% — still well above the Fed's 2% target. Shelter (+0.4%) and energy (+0.7%, gasoline +1.9%) did the heavy lifting.
Here's the thing: a hot CPI print used to send the dollar ripping. This time, DXY barely moved off the 99.10 support. That tells me the market may have already priced in higher-for-longer — and the breakout isn't going to happen on CPI alone.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 99.70–99.95 — The supply zone where the declining moving-average cluster sits. Price has been rejected here repeatedly. This is the line in the sand.
Breakout target: 100.50, then 101.00–101.15 — A confirmed daily close above 99.95 opens the door toward the next major resistance near 101.
Support: 99.10–99.20 — The most important short-term demand zone. A daily close below 99.10 breaks the rebound structure and exposes 98.55–98.80.
🎯 Core Thesis
My read: DXY TVC:DXY is neutral-to-bullish, but only conditionally. The macro backdrop supports a dollar bounce — sticky core inflation at 3.1% YoY means the Fed has cover to slow or pause rate cuts. But here's the catch: the 0.4% headline was inflated by energy and food, not by a re-acceleration in core services. Core services inflation held at 0.3% MoM — flat for two months. That means the "structural inflation comeback" narrative might be overstated.
So the dollar's fundamental tailwind is real but possibly thinner than the consensus thinks. For DXY to break 99.70–99.95, I want to see two things: Treasury yields climbing back toward recent highs, and price acceptance above 99.95 on a 4H close — not just a wick.
⚠️ Risk View
The risk to this setup is clear: if 99.10 fails on a daily close, the rebound structure breaks. The 98.55–98.80 demand zone comes back into play, and the bullish thesis is invalidated. On the flip side, repeated rejection at 99.70–99.95 keeps DXY range-bound and erodes buyer confidence.
Watch the 10Y yield — if it reclaims its recent highs, that's the fundamental confirmation for a breakout attempt. If yields roll over, the dollar's CPI tailwind fades fast.
📌 Bottom Line
I'm neutral-to-bullish DXY above 99.10 on a daily close. The trade trigger is a 4H close above 99.95 with expanding volume — that opens 100.50, then 101.00–101.15. If 99.10 fails on a daily close, the structure breaks and 98.55–98.80 comes back into play.
CPI gave the fundamental excuse. Now the chart has to confirm.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 
Long
Hang Seng Tech delivers reversal pattern from support zoneLast week, I highlighted the 4,250–4,100 support zone as an area where traders should be watching closely for reversal patterns or other price action that could provide clues on directional risk.
We may now have one.
After briefly kissing support at 4,250, Hang Seng Tech has printed a three-candle Morning Star bullish reversal pattern, a development that puts added emphasis on the price action today. Given it has formed from a known support zone following an extended decline, the pattern raises the possibility that a near-term bottom may have been established.
Price action today is clearly important, with further gains likely to solidify the belief that a near-term bottom has been formed. If that is the case, upside levels to focus on include the intersection of the August downtrend with 4,460, which was the breakdown zone seen in early September.
A break above that would then put 4,660 and the 50-day moving average on the radar, with the more significant 100-day moving average located just overhead. The latter has consistently rejected counter-trend bullish moves over the past year.
The oscillators also suggest we may be witnessing the start of a turn in bearish momentum. RSI (14) has reversed out of oversold territory and now sits around 34, while MACD is showing signs of converging on its signal line, paving the way for a potential bullish crossover, albeit in negative territory.
Momentum is still with the bears, but it's currently diminishing.
A pullback towards 4,250 that is bought, as we have seen over the prior two sessions, would allow for long entry with a tight stop beneath either 4,250 or 4,190 for protection. Depending on entry level, either 4,460 or 4,660 loom as potential initial targets, although the preference would ideally be for the latter from a risk-reward perspective.
More broadly, while I’m interested in the potential for a short-term counter-trend rally, with the price sitting beneath its key medium and long-term moving averages, all of which are mildly sloping lower, it would take a far more significant bullish move to get me interested in the index’s longer-term prospects.
Good luck!
DS SPX500 — 4H | Bullish — Wave 4 Complete, Wave 5 Continuation TarBias: LONG
The index has completed a clean 5-wave impulse structure off the April low, currently correcting through wave (4) into the 7,565 .7–7,600 .0 demand zone — right at confluence with the long-term ascending trendline that's held structure since April. This is the classic wave 4 "alternation" pullback before the final wave 5 push.
Narrative:
Waves (1) through (3) completed the initial impulse into the 7,750 .0–7,800 .0 resistance zone
Wave (4) correction is now tagging trendline + demand confluence — a high-probability reaction zone
Expecting wave (5) to extend price back toward the 7,750 .0–7,825 .0 supply zone, mirroring wave 3's structure
Trendline break with a confirmed 4H close below it would invalidate the wave count and suggest a deeper corrective structure instead
Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: 7,565 .7 – 7,624 .9 (current pullback zone / trendline confluence)
Stop Loss: Below 7,550 .0 (beneath wave 4 low / trendline invalidation)
Take Profit: 7,750 .0 – 7,825 .0 (wave 5 target / prior wave 3 highs)
R:R: ~2.3 : 1
⚠️ Not financial advice — manage risk per your own plan. Short 
Short
Long 
NAS100 (US100) — 4H | Bearish Structure, Two Short SetupsBias: SHORT — Distribution phase confirmed off double-top liquidity sweep
Price ran the equal highs at the double top, sweeping resting buy-side liquidity above 30,246 .0–30,600 .0 before rejecting hard off the descending trendline. That sweep + rejection is the trigger for this whole bearish thesis — smart money grabbed liquidity, trapped late longs, and structure has been printing lower highs since.
🔴 Setup 1 — Immediate (Liquidity Sweep Entry)
Already active off the double-top rejection.
Entry Zone: 29,738 .7 – 30,169 .2
Stop Loss: 30,850 .8 (above swept high)
Take Profit: 27,089 .7
R:R: ~4.5:1
Trigger: BOS below trendline confirmed, currently trading below broken structure
🟠 Setup 2 — Pending (Retest / Order Block Ahead)
For those who miss Setup 1, or want a second confirmation entry if price grinds sideways before continuing.
Watch Zone: Retest of the broken trendline / mitigation of the unfilled order block sitting just under the 30,000 .0 handle
Confirmation needed: LTF CHoCH + rejection candle on retest before entry
Stop Loss: Above the retest high (tighter than Setup 1, likely 29,800 .0–30,000 .0 depending on how the retest forms)
Take Profit: Same target — 27,089 .7
Why it matters: Gives a lower-risk, higher-R:R entry for traders who want confirmation rather than chasing the initial sweep
Overall thesis: Both setups share the same downside target — the untapped demand zone at 27,089 .7 — with Setup 1 already in play and Setup 2 as the backup plan if price retraces before continuing the move.
⚠️ Not financial advice — manage risk according to your own plan. Short 
NAS100 (US100) — 4H | Bearish Continuation After Liquidity SweepBias: SHORT
Price swept the prior high liquidity resting above the 30,600 .0 region before rejecting sharply, confirming a BOS to the downside off the descending trendline. This aligns with the broader structure — NAS100 has been respecting a clean descending channel since the early-June high, with each retracement into premium territory getting sold into.
Narrative:
Liquidity was engineered above the 30,246 .0–30,600 .0 supply zone, trapping late longs
Rejection candle confirms distribution at the highs — smart money offloading into retail buy-side liquidity
Current price (29,182 .8) is consolidating below the broken trendline, now acting as resistance
Expecting continuation lower toward the untapped demand/TP zone once minor liquidity below 29,000 .0 is cleared
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone : 29,738 .7 – 30,169 .2 (retest of broken structure / order block)
Stop Loss: 30,850 .8 (above swept liquidity high)
Take Profit: 27,089 .7 (next major demand zone / untapped liquidity pool)
R:R: ~ 4.5:1
Key levels to watch: 30,246 .0 (invalidation trigger on 4H close above), 28,600 .0 (intermediate liquidity pocket), 27,089 .7 (final target)
⚠️ Not financial advice — always manage risk according to your own plan. Short 
Long
FOMC 2020–2026: Fed rate decisions vs 2Y/10Y yields and DXYOverview of all 54 FOMC interest-rate decisions from Jan 29, 2020 through Jul 29, 2026.
At each decision: 2Y and 10Y Treasury closes (FRED DGS2/DGS10) + ICE DXY close.
Totals: 11 hikes (+525 bp) | 8 cuts (−325 bp) | 35 holds
Start 1.50–1.75% → end (Jul 2026) still holding 3.50–3.75%
Min/max on FOMC decision days:
• 2Y: 0.12% (Jul 29, 2020) → 5.12% (Sep 20, 2023)
• 10Y: 0.58% (Jul 29, 2020) → 4.77% (Nov 1, 2023)
• DXY: 90.45 (Dec 16, 2020) → 111.35 (Nov 2, 2022, +75 bp hike)
Average DXY by decision type: hike ~104 | cut ~100 | hold ~98
Cycle snapshot:
2020 COVID cuts → ZLB | 2022–Jul 2023 hiking | hold at peak | Sep 2024–Dec 2025 easing | 2026 holds at 3.50–3.75%
Note: same-day closes already include the ~14:00 ET reaction — not a pure surprise measure.
Sources: Fed statements, FRED DGS2/DGS10, Yahoo DX-Y.NYB (ICE Dollar Index). Short 
US30 Ready to Explode? (1H)US30 is approaching an important area, and the current structure suggests that a bullish move could be developing soon.
With improving market sentiment and the possibility of stronger performance from major companies included in this index, US30 could have the potential to regain bullish momentum. If buyers step in and key support levels continue to hold, we may see a move toward higher levels.
The index will be closely monitored for confirmation, as a recovery in large-cap companies could provide additional strength for the next upward move.
Based on the current structure, BAC appears to be in the process of completing a corrective BAC pattern and is currently developing within Wave C.
As long as the green demand zone continues to hold, there is a good possibility of a bullish reaction and a potential move to the upside. This area will be our key zone of interest for a possible long setup, preferably after receiving confirmation from price action.
The potential targets are clearly marked on the chart and will be monitored as the move develops.
From a risk-management perspective, a 4-hour candle close below the invalidation level would invalidate the current bullish structure and cancel this setup.
For now, we are watching the green zone closely for a potential bullish reaction.
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