US Dollar Rebound: Is DXY Preparing to Break Higher?DXY is recovering from a failed breakdown, but buyers must clear the 101.00–101.30 resistance region to confirm another sustained move higher.
Market indices
Japan 225 ($JP225) Daily: Pullback to Major AscendingJapan 225 ( FOREXCOM:JP225 ) Daily: Pullback to Major Ascending Support Confluence Offers High-Asymmetry Long Setup
### 🇯🇵 Japan 225 CFD Daily Technical Matrix (Ref: JP225_2026-07-20_09-09-25.png)
We are releasing a high-probability tactical long study on the Japan 225 Index ( FOREXCOM:JP225 ) on the Daily (1D) interval. Following a healthy multi-week corrective phase from its July peaks near 73,000+, the benchmark index has plummeted into a major institutional demand matrix, unlocking an asymmetric buy-the-dip configuration.
The index is showing early signs of buy-side absorption today, trading up at **65,116 (+0.29%)**.
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### 🔍 Technical Architecture & Support Confluence:
Our technical framework isolates a powerful confluence zone where multiple dynamic and structural layers intersect:
1. **The Macro Ascending Support Line (LTA):** The primary red diagonal trendline originating from the March/April structural lows remains fully intact. Price action is currently kissing this key behavioral line.
2. **The 72-period SMA Dynamic Cushion:** The index is embedding directly into the **72-period SMA cluster (tracked between 64,719 and 65,195)**. This moving average ribbon acts as a reliable trend-continuation filter during bull market pullbacks.
3. **Institutional Trend Health:** The long-term institutional trend remains strongly bullish, as price action continues to trade safely above the ascending **200-period EMA (purple line at 57,759)**.
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### 🎯 Systematic Trade Execution Blueprint:
Given the precise structural defense displayed at this baseline, the asymmetry heavily favors a counter-attack from buyers:
* **Tactical Entry Zone:** Around the **65,383** structural retest corridor.
* **Protective Stop Loss:** Placed strictly below the dynamic support invalidation threshold at **62,645**. This invalidation anchor sits underneath the lowest ribbon of the 72-SMA complex.
* **Primary Target (Range Expansion):** The upside target is set at **70,860**, aiming to capture the swing-high continuation toward the upper boundary of the macro bullish structure.
### 📊 Tactical Parameters Summary:
* **Trend Bias:** Bullish Pullback (Buy the Dip)
* **Execution Trigger:** Long position entry near current support structure (~65,383)
* **Invalidation Anchor (Stop Loss):** 62,645
* **Primary Profit Target:** 70,860
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📊 **ChartPro Data**
*Index Structural Architecture, Role-Reversal Sourcing & Systematic Risk Frameworks.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This active market study represents a personal trading framework and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Long
DAX W30 - four references inside 50 pointsTHE FRAME
The week closed at 24,842.1. Below July's point of control, below the first standard deviation of the monthly VWAP, bottom third of the value area.
Volume for all of this comes from the FDAX contract, not from CFD tick counts, and gets mapped onto the price of the chart it is drawn on.
Value area high 25,225.6 Point of control 25,035.4 Value area low 24,698.9 Monthly VWAP 25,176.2 VWAP -1 sigma 24,853.4 Friday's close 24,842.1
WHERE THINGS STACK
Four references sit overhead inside 50.2 points:
25,126.0 gamma flip (7-45 DTE structure map) 25,150.5 Wednesday high 25,168.1 Monday high 25,176.2 monthly VWAP
An options-positioning model, two weekday highs and a volume-weighted average. None of the three knows the other two exist. This week they land on the same band anyway.
Downside has stations, not a void:
24,698.9 value area low 24,530.6 VWAP -2 sigma 24,500.0 put wall 24,207.8 VWAP -3 sigma
The put wall and the -2 sigma band are 30.6 points apart. Two methods, one shelf.
WHAT THE FRAME IMPLIES
Price sits under all of it, and the gamma model reads short gamma — moves get amplified instead of dampened. So the frame points down. The point of control at 25,035.4 is the first thing any bounce has to get through; going the other way, 24,698.9 comes first and 24,530.6 sits behind it.
One-day expected move is 242 points. That is the scale for a single session.
WHAT INVALIDATES IT
A daily close above 25,176.2. Above the whole band, not just into it. That puts price back inside value, flips the gamma reading, and everything above becomes history. It gets updated here when it happens.
And if neither 24,698.9 nor 25,176.2 is reached by Thursday, the reading was not wrong. It was useless. That verdict gets posted too.
THE LIMITS
The hit rate of a confluence like this has never been measured here, so nothing above is a probability statement.
In own backtesting the gamma flip sits above spot on roughly 85% of days, which means being below it carries almost no information by itself. It only counts here because three unrelated references agree with it.
And when these gamma levels were tested as magnets, the correlation came out at 0.21 or lower. Shelves, not walls.
Short
# DXY Week W29-2026: Core CPI Prints Zero as US-Iran Conflict ..# DXY Week W29-2026: Core CPI Prints Zero as US-Iran Conflict Keeps Dollar Pinned at VWAP 100.77 -- Two Forces Cancel Each Other Out | 20 July 2026
**Reference data** | week 2026-W29
- Symbol: DXY
- Week: 2026-W29
- Bias: bearish
- Conviction: low
- Regime: trending_up
- FX implication: trend_follow
- MTF alignment: all_bullish
- VWAP weekly: 100.766998
- TrendSL weekly: 99.47500225
- Close price: 100.766998
- US 10Y yield: 4.57%
- US 2Y yield: 4.16%
- US 10Y real yield: 2.35%
- CPI (USD): forecast=0.2, actual=0.0 (miss)
## L0 - Regime Identification (current market regime)
The immediate news backdrop this week is dominated by two countervailing forces that are pulling the dollar in opposite directions simultaneously. First, the US-Iran conflict has intensified materially, with reports of active US attacks pushing Brent crude sharply higher and triggering a classic safe-haven bid into the dollar. Asian currencies weakened broadly as oil prices escalated -- a pattern consistent with the risk-off dollar demand we typically see when energy-importing economies face sudden import cost shocks. Peace prospects did surface briefly, causing the dollar to tick modestly higher on the relief that conflict might not spiral further, though the situation remains fluid. Second, and cutting directly against that safe-haven narrative, China's yuan has been firming even as the broader dollar trades directionlessly across Asia -- a notable decoupling that suggests the safe-haven bid is not uniform and that CNY-specific flows (possibly PBOC management or trade-related) are running on a separate track.
Against this backdrop, the DXY regime is technically classified as trending_up with a confidence reading of 0.70, which is meaningful but not high-conviction. Price closed the week at 100.7670, exactly at the VWAP weekly level of 100.7670 -- a textbook indecision print. This is essentially unchanged from the prior week's structure. The regime says uptrend, but the macro and event flow are actively contesting that direction.
## L1 - Driver Stack
The driver picture is genuinely conflicted this week, and that conflict is the core story:
-> BEARISH (strongest driver): Core CPI (MoM) for the USD printed 0.0% actual versus a 0.2% forecast, against a previous reading of 0.2%. This is a clean miss and materially alters the near-term Fed narrative. A zero monthly core print, if it is not a one-off data anomaly, removes urgency for any further tightening and opens the door wider for rate cuts. Rate differential is the most durable driver of DXY over a 3-to-6 week horizon, and this data point moves that differential against the dollar.
-> BEARISH (secondary): CPI YoY actual also came in below forecast, reinforcing the miss rather than contradicting it. The macro scoring flags a moderate-to-large surprise on the bearish side for USD.
-> BULLISH (geopolitical, tactical): US-Iran conflict escalation is generating genuine safe-haven demand for USD. This is a short-duration flow driver -- it does not change rate differentials or growth fundamentals, but it can sustain dollar bids for days to weeks if conflict persists.
-> BULLISH (technical): Multi-timeframe alignment is all_bullish. Price is holding at VWAP weekly. The trend support level (TrendSL weekly) at 99.4750 is well below current price, meaning the technical structure has not broken down.
-> NEUTRAL/UNCERTAIN: The COT (Commitment of Traders) confirmation is explicitly flagged as absent. Without COT alignment, the macro bearish lean cannot be confirmed by positioning data. Crowding risk -- the danger that a consensus short or long gets unwound violently -- cannot be properly assessed this week.
## L2 - Macro Snapshot
The macro picture is the dominant bearish argument, but it carries a caveat. The 10Y US Treasury yield stands at 4.57%, the 2Y yield at 4.16%, producing a yield curve that remains inverted by roughly 41 basis points. The 10Y real yield (inflation-adjusted) is at 2.35% -- still historically elevated and, in isolation, supportive of dollar demand from yield-seeking foreign capital. However, the Core CPI MoM miss (forecast 0.2%, actual 0.0%, prior 0.2%) complicates this picture significantly. If disinflation is re-accelerating, the forward path of real yields is downward even if nominal yields stay sticky near-term. Markets will begin pricing a faster Fed easing cycle, which compresses the rate differential advantage the dollar has enjoyed relative to EUR, GBP, and JPY. That compression is the transmission mechanism from this single data print to sustained DXY weakness. The key question is whether the zero print is signal or noise -- one month does not make a trend, and until subsequent data confirms, the macro bearish case is directionally correct but not yet high-conviction.
## L3 - Technical Structure
Close price is 100.7670, sitting precisely at the VWAP weekly of 100.7670. This is not a coincidence -- it reflects a market that has absorbed both bullish (geopolitical safe-haven) and bearish (CPI miss) flows and landed exactly at equilibrium. VWAP weekly at 100.7670 is now the pivot line: sustained price above it represents short-term momentum against the bearish thesis and warrants size reduction per the invalidation framework. The TrendSL weekly at 99.4750 is the structural line -- a weekly close above that level would invalidate the bearish structure entirely (note: price is currently well above it, meaning the bearish structure is intact at the structural level but price is not in a convenient entry position relative to VWAP). MTF alignment is all_bullish, which means the technical trend across timeframes has not broken. A bearish thesis operating against all_bullish MTF alignment is a counter-trend trade and must be sized accordingly.
## L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check
MTF alignment is all_bullish for DXY, and the FX implication is trend_follow. For pairs where DXY is the pricing denominator -- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD -- an all_bullish DXY technically favors dollar strength, which is the opposite of the fundamental bearish lean. This is the central tension in this analysis: fundamentals (CPI miss, easing trajectory) point one way, while the technical trend structure points the other. The yuan's decoupling from the broad Asia weakness is a secondary intermarket signal worth watching -- if CNY continues to firm against a directionless dollar, it may be an early leading indicator that dollar safe-haven demand is not as broad or durable as headline conflict news implies. Oil price elevation from the Iran escalation creates an indirect headwind for energy-importing economies (JPY, EUR to a lesser extent), which historically provides some defensive dollar demand that can persist even as rate differentials erode.
## L5 - Event Risk
Key events to monitor over the next 3 weeks:
-> US-Iran conflict trajectory: any ceasefire or de-escalation removes the safe-haven pillar supporting dollar bids; further escalation sustains it
-> Subsequent US inflation prints and Fed speaker commentary: the zero Core CPI print needs corroboration or refutation
-> COT positioning data: currently absent from the confirmation framework; first COT release showing net short USD positioning would significantly raise bearish conviction
-> China yuan and CNH dynamics: continued CNY firmness against a weak dollar environment would confirm the decoupling signal
-> Broader Asian currency stabilization: a reversal of the broad Asia currency weakness would reduce safe-haven dollar demand
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Conflict de-escalates + follow-through CPI softness: DXY breaks below VWAP 100.77, tests toward 99.47 TrendSL | Low-Moderate |
| Conflict persists + CPI miss treated as one-off: DXY consolidates at VWAP, no directional resolution | Moderate |
| Conflict escalates sharply + Fed stays hawkish: safe-haven + rate differential combine, DXY pushes materially above 100.77 | Low |
| COT confirms net short USD + macro data validates CPI miss: bearish thesis gains conviction, structured move lower | Low (this week), higher over 3-week horizon |
## L6 - Conviction Scorecard
Overall bias is bearish. Conviction level is explicitly low. This is the appropriate assessment given the current setup: the fundamental case (CPI miss) is bearish, but it is operating against an all_bullish technical structure, a geopolitical safe-haven bid of uncertain duration, absent COT confirmation, and a closing price sitting exactly at the VWAP weekly decision point. Low conviction does not mean the bias is wrong -- it means the evidence is not yet sufficient to act with size or confidence. Traders with a structural bearish view on DXY should treat this week as a monitoring week rather than an entry week. If the regime were trending_down and MTF alignment were bearish, the same fundamental inputs would justify medium conviction. The mismatch between macro direction and technical trend structure is what is suppressing the conviction rating, and that mismatch is honest -- forcing a high-conviction call here would be fabricating certainty the data does not support.
## L7 - Time Horizon
**Near-term (1 week):** Price is at VWAP. The geopolitical news flow is the dominant short-term variable. Expect continued volatility and potential for whipsaw moves. No directional edge is clear within the next 5 trading days.
**Timeline (3 weeks):** This is the analytical window for the bearish thesis. The expectation is that the CPI miss begins to filter into Fed pricing, rate differential compression becomes more visible in FX flows, and the safe-haven geopolitical bid fades if the Iran situation stabilizes. Over 3 weeks, the fundamental case has more time to assert itself -- but COT confirmation and at least one additional data point supporting disinflation would be required to upgrade conviction.
**Medium-term (beyond 3 weeks):** If the fundamental bearish case is correct, the path of least resistance points toward the TrendSL weekly at 99.4750 as the first meaningful structural target area. Below that, the bearish trend structure would become self-reinforcing technically. However, medium-term DXY direction also depends on how the Fed's reaction function evolves in response to incoming data, and whether geopolitical risk premium in USD persists or dissipates.
## L8 - Invalidation Conditions
-> If weekly close prints above TrendSL weekly at 99.4750: bearish structure is invalidated -- exit shorts, reassess the entire thesis from scratch
-> If price is sustained above VWAP weekly at 100.7670: short-term momentum is running against the thesis -- reduce position size until price gives a cleaner directional signal
-> Note: price is currently AT 100.7670, meaning the second condition is immediately in play and size should already reflect that ambiguity
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*This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.*
#DXY #DollarIndex #ForexAnalysis #USD #ForexTrading #MacroTrading #CPI #FedPolicy #RateDifferential #SafeHaven #EURUSD #USDJPY #TechnicalAnalysis #GeopoliticalRisk #CarryUnwind
Short
GER40: Key Imbalance Established | External Expansion Toward 1.4Market Context & Order Flow
On the 1-hour timeframe of the GER40 index (DAX), a clean bullish structure is taking shape. Following a liquidity sweep in the discount zone, price delivered an aggressive impulse, establishing a key imbalance (FVG). This signals institutional buying pressure and a local shift in Order Flow toward overhead liquidity pools.
Technical Highlights:
Imbalance & POI Confluence: The impulsive push confirmed a local Point of Interest (POI). The unfilled inefficiency serves as a strong magnet for price action.
External Fibonacci Expansion: The primary vector targets delivering price to the 1.414 external expansion level, where major sell-side liquidity is concentrated.
Trade Management (Multi-Stage Partial TP):
First Target (75% fix): 25,199.9 (Securing the majority of profits upon clearing local structural liquidity).
Final Target (25% fix): 25,364.2 (Full exit at the 1.414 Fibonacci expansion / premium POI).
Invalidation Level (Stop Loss): 24,536.0 (A close below invalidates the bullish thesis).
🚀 Boost this idea if you agree with the analysis! Share your thoughts in the comments below.
Long
Three Levels to Watch For When Trading US30!The attached chart shows the sideways movement of the Dow Jones index from the start of this month through today's trading, within a price range bounded by the 52,000 level as support, from which the price has bounced three times so far, and the 52,850 level as resistance, from which prices pulled back on two previous occasions.
However, we should also pay attention to the price levels near 52,450 for the following reasons:
It represents the midpoint of the current sideways range.
It marks a convergence point for several moving averages, the 35, 50, and 100-period moving averages.
Technically, then, these three levels are expected to serve as key markers for the Dow Jones' movements amid the market's current state of hesitation and indecision, caught between the positive impact of inflation data showing signs of slowing and the negative pressure of oil prices climbing again, up around 16% over last week's trading.
So will the Dow respond to the positive inflation data, or will rising oil prices have the final say?
Bullish bounce at 38.2% Fib support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling toward the pivot, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 100.28
1st Support: 99.51
1st Resistance: 101.80
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Long
Bull Monday with 10531 10508 support | Rise to 10632The FTSE remains the strongest of the major European indices. The reason is straightforward. Higher oil prices continue to support the heavyweight energy companies that make up a significant proportion of the index. Shell and BP should remain well supported while crude trades above $90, helping offset weakness in other sectors. However, if bond yields continue climbing, financial conditions will tighten and that may eventually limit further gains.
What I'm Watching
Whether buyers defend Friday's support levels.
Performance of the energy sector during the European session.
Whether banks continue outperforming on higher yields.
Trading Plan
I still favour buying controlled pullbacks while support holds.
If we see an early dip followed by higher lows developing on the intraday charts, I think the FTSE has the potential to outperform again.
A break below Friday's low would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper retracement is developing.
Short
KOSPI , IdeaThe rally left a textbook trail: higher highs, breaks of structure, momentum riding comfortably above the long-term average. Then came the change of character, followed by a break of structure to the downside, and now price trades near the 7,000 KRW area, below the level that used to hold it up. The weak high near 9,800 KRW is exactly that: weak, and unclaimed.
The map from here:
Scenario 1: price dips first into the zone of interest around 5,700 KRW, gathers demand, and rotates up into the supply area near 8,500 KRW. The weak high territory would be the natural magnet, but supply gets the first word.
Scenario 2: the mirror image. Price rallies into the 8,500 KRW supply first, gets rejected, and rotates back down to the 5,700 KRW zone. Same destinations, opposite order.
The sweep: below the zone of interest sits the strong low, wrapped in liquidity around the 4,800 to 5,000 KRW region. A dip into that pool followed by a sharp reclaim would be the classic institutional move, take the stops, then reverse.
The breakdown: if the strong low fails, the structural story changes completely. A much deeper liquidity pool waits near 2,300 KRW, and the path to it is long, fast, and unfriendly. Low probability until proven otherwise, but it stays on the map because ignoring tail scenarios is how accounts disappear.
Change of character is a warning, not a verdict. We let the zones vote first.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
Follow, Boost, Join, Thank You!
Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your life coach, or your legally responsible adult. Always do your own research and never trade based solely on internet comedy.
US 100 - Bubble Fears Are Back Driving SentimentA sell off in previously high-flying chip stocks was a key reason why the US 100 index dropped 3.9% last week from opening levels at 29800 on Monday down to a close of 28566 on Friday. Sentiment has turned down at the start of July as fears of an AI bubble resurface once more, repeating a pattern of risk on then off again that has been witnessed by traders in this very popular area of financial markets since the middle of last year.
Looking forward, the huge capital expenditure being committed to artificial intelligence by several of the world biggest companies and whether it’s generating commensurate revenue returns is once again being questioned just days before Tesla and Alphabet report their latest earnings on Wednesday (after close), and 10 days before Microsoft, Meta and Amazon provide their next updates. These stocks carry a large index weighting meaning their actual results, future revenue growth predictions and capital expenditure forecasts could contribute to outsized directional moves in the US 100 across this crucial two week period into the end of July.
The technical outlook is potentially flagging an interesting dynamic that may also be worth monitoring.
Technical Update: Downside Focus Potentially Shifting to Last Low at 28206
Since posting the all‑time high at 30776 on June 3rd, the US 100 index has traced out a period of choppy sideways activity, as a decision‑making process appears to have formed between buyers and sellers. The lower limits of this sideways pattern could be marked by 28206, the June 9th low, which has held throughout the recent consolidation pattern.
However, as the chart above shows, price weakness is currently emerging after a failure to breach previous session highs on a closing basis. This price action has created a series of lower highs, which could leave traders wondering if this type of price activity is an indication of negative sentiment emerging.
Within this backdrop, being aware of potential key support and resistance levels may prove useful to establish where the next directional risks could lie this week as the key risk events play out.
Potential Support Levels:
In technical analysis, if there is a suspicion of potentially negative weak tests of previous price highs, it is often the last correction low of the previous uptrend that becomes the key support focus for traders, as closing breaks below this level can lead to further price weakness.
In the case of the US 100 index, this dynamic could bring 28206, the June 9th downside extreme into play as this level may represent the last correction low and therefore may be the first key support focus for the coming week.
While not a guarantee of continued price declines, closing breaks below 28206 could open the way for further downside momentum to emerge. Such moves, if seen, could suggest scope toward 27696, which is the 38.2% retracement, possibly then the deeper 50% level at 26753.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Of course, the support at the 28206 low is currently still intact, and while this remains the case, it’s possible the choppy sideways range can extend further. If this is the case, closing breaks back above 29239, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline, may be required to open potential for a push to higher levels.
Closing breaks above 29239 could be viewed as an indication of upside re‑emerging. If this is the case, risks may shift toward further price strength to test the next resistance at 29434, the current level of the Bollinger mid‑average, and if this is also breached, on toward 29791, the higher 61.8% retracement level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
DAX Returns to a Key Support AreaMarket Structure
The DAX remains in a broad sideways structure with a neutral short-term bias.
The recovery from the March low created a series of stronger lows, but the index has repeatedly failed to build a sustained breakout above the 25,200–25,700 region.
Recent price action reflects a balanced market rather than a clear trend. Buyers continue to defend the lower part of the range, while sellers remain active near the recent highs.
A confirmed move outside the current range would provide a clearer directional signal.
Key Resistance Zone
First resistance: 25,000–25,200
This is the nearest resistance area and an important short-term pivot.
A move back above this zone would suggest that buyers are beginning to regain momentum.
Second resistance: 25,450–25,700
This area includes the recent swing highs and remains the main supply zone on the current chart.
Price has struggled to hold above this region, making it the key breakout area for the bullish case.
Major resistance: 25,900–26,100
This is the next broader resistance zone above the recent highs.
A sustained move above this area would strengthen the medium-term bullish structure and confirm a more meaningful breakout.
Key Support Zone
First support: 24,700–24,850
This is the nearest and most important short-term support area.
Price is currently testing this zone, and holding above it would keep the current consolidation structure intact.
Second support: 24,300–24,500
This area has produced several recent buying reactions and remains an important structural support.
A break below it would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Major support: 23,800–24,000
This is the lower boundary of the broader recovery structure.
If the price falls below this zone, the medium-term outlook would weaken more clearly.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral with a cautious bearish bias.
The repeated rejection near the highs has reduced bullish momentum, while the latest pullback shows that sellers remain active. However, the index is still holding above important structural support.
Above 25,200, short-term recovery momentum may improve.
Below 24,700, bearish pressure may increase.
Please share your view below:
Will the DAX defend the 24,700–24,850 support zone and recover toward 25,700? Or will sellers break support and push the index toward 24,400?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
Lets get ready for next week 7/19/26I walk you through my levels and the things I'm watching for in the markets. support and resistance. In this video I walk you through my ideas and possible scenarios that could possibly happen to the up side or the down side. I also go over a couple charts I decided to take profits on and a couple of charts I decided to buy. I hope you enjoy the video subscribe and boost. Leave a comment or questions if you have any I will get back to you as soon as I can thx.
Could we see a drop from here?Dow Jones (US30) is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse toward the 1st support.
Pivot: 52,274.90
1st Support: 51,128.90
1st Resistance: 53,332.40
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Short
Semiconductors (SOX): This Is the Signal You Need to Watch!Far more than geopolitics or the situation in the Middle East, the long-term trend in the semiconductor sector is currently the number one fundamental concern for major financial institutions.
Semiconductors are the segment of the technology sector generating the highest profits and, above all, the strongest expected earnings. AI GPUs, AI memory chips, data centers, and other computing chips have driven this sector to a near-vertical stock market rally since the spring of 2025.
Given its mathematical weight in the calculation of the S&P 500 index, this market segment will ultimately determine when the S&P 500 reaches its cyclical peak.
It is not worthwhile to predict the end of the long-term bull trend every single week because, after each short-term correction, the underlying uptrend has consistently resumed. Claiming every week that the market has reached its top is therefore a losing strategy.
Instead, investors should adopt a more precise and methodical approach by waiting for genuine, tangible signals that the long-term trend of the U.S. stock market has turned bearish. Until such signals appear, every short-term correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
Here is the key takeaway: in technical analysis, the strongest and most reliable signals come from long-term charts, namely the monthly timeframe. Only a technical signal from this long-term horizon can truly invalidate a major bullish trend.
In this new analysis published on TradingView, I invite you to closely monitor the RSI indicator on the monthly SOX chart. For more than 30 years, whenever the RSI has fallen back below the overbought zone (70), whether preceded by a bearish divergence or not, it has signaled a significant pullback in the SOX.
Take a close look at the chart below. For now, this bearish signal has not yet been triggered. But the day it is confirmed, expect a substantial correction in semiconductor stocks—and therefore in the S&P 500 as well.
The chart below shows the monthly Japanese candlesticks of the U.S. Semiconductor Index (SOX).
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Kospi short squeezeA little lower, and I think we'll get a bounce for a few days. This means likely we will have a bounce on the indexes as well although maybe not as strong. I would especially watch for SOXX and QQQ to outperform to the upside if the Kospi gets a strong bounce.
This is a volatile and risky trade but I think the setup is there.
Long
Hong Kong Stocks Drop Due to Middle East RisksThe Hang Seng Index (HSI) IG:HANGSENG slipped -0.4%, or 100 points lower, to 25,029, halting gains following a flat session in the previous session as global fund managers resumed their tactical hunker-down.
The Hong Kong stock market was forced to absorb the military tensions in the Persian Gulf following the 11th consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iranian targets, which locked crude oil prices in premium territory.
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The acceleration of the HSI index's consolidation above the 25,000 mark was driven rigidly by the convergence of two major variables on the daily trading floor:
✅ 11th Night of US Military Operations Keys Crude Oil Risk Premium
The main catalysts undermining risk appetite in Asia-Pacific markets stemmed from the Persian Gulf maritime corridor:
- Continued Logistics Paralysis: The United States military officially entered its 11th consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian military targets in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Energy Inflation Rigidity: The absence of any signs of de-escalation has kept crude oil prices firmly in the upper range, reigniting concerns about energy-driven inflation that is stifling real consumer issuers.
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✅ Draft Giant Zhongji Innolight IPO (HK$55B) & Moonshot AI Valuation Target $50B
- Global Liquidity Magnet: On the other hand, the allure of China's physical ecosystem has proven resilient. Data center transceiver optical module giant Zhongji Innolight has officially finalized its Hong Kong IPO plan with a target of up to HK$55.05 billion, potentially the largest offering this year.
- AI Model Moonshot Euphoria: Reports that AI model developer Moonshot AI is preparing to launch a final funding round in August, aiming for a $50 billion valuation ahead of its Hong Kong listing, validate the strong commitment of venture capital to Asian AI hardware and software.
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A daily profit clearing operation hit the HSI heavyweights this afternoon:
- ⚡Xiaomi Corp. Down -3.9% & Tencent Holdings Down -3.6%: Xiaomi and Tencent led the bleeding in the technology platform cluster, declining after being swept away by the daily profit liquidation following their five-day rally last week.
- ⚡Meituan (-3.5%) & Z.Ai Co (-3.0%): The on-demand platform giant and AI developer suffered losses, reflecting the cautious stance of institutions holding back on capital expansion ahead of Alphabet's draft capital expenditure guidance release tonight.
- ⚡AIA Group Down -1.2%: The life insurance financial sector also declined slightly, acting as a counterbalance to the index's movements.
Short
NIFTY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS FOR 22/07/2026📊 NIFTY Daily Sentiment Analysis | 22 July 2026 | Bullish Opening vs Bearish Structure
Most traders see the opening.
Very few try to understand the structure beneath it.
Today's analysis is interesting because the market is presenting two completely different narratives.
Opening Character
🟢 Bullish
⚠️ Trap / Conflict
📉 PE Dominant
The opening may look constructive, but options positioning is already hinting that participants are preparing for a different outcome.
Underlying Direction
🔴 STRONG BEARISH
This doesn't guarantee a bearish day.
It simply tells us that the underlying force is not supporting the optimism created by the opening.
These are the sessions where traders often get trapped chasing the first move.
Market Behaviour
⚡ Explosive
Expect:
• Sharp intraday reversals
• False breakouts
• Liquidity sweeps
• High volatility around key levels
Confirmation is likely to be more important than anticipation.
Key Price Levels
Resistance
🎯 24,201.80
🚧 24,257.80
Opening Anchor
📍 24,145.80
Support
🛡️ 24,033.80
🛡️ 23,977.80
🛡️ 23,960.00
Sector Leadership
🥇 PSU
🥈 Leadership Stocks
🥉 Pharma
Critical Time Windows
🕤 09:25 AM — Opening Decision Window
🕝 02:40 PM — Final Expansion / Reversal Window
The second window is the one I'll be watching most closely.
If the market continues to defend the Opening Anchor (24,145.80) into this period, buyers may attempt another push towards 24,201.80 and 24,257.80.
If the Opening Anchor fails decisively, the bearish structure could accelerate the move towards 24,033.80, followed by 23,977.80.
Trading Roadmap
23,960.00 → 23,977.80 → 24,033.80 → 24,145.80 → 24,201.80 → 24,257.80
Final View
🟢 Opening Character: Bullish
🔴 Underlying Direction: Strong Bearish
⚡ Behaviour: Explosive
⚠️ Market Condition: High Probability of a Bull Trap / Conflict Day
The opening tells you who won the first battle.
The underlying structure tells you who is likely to win the war.
Today, I'm less interested in predicting every candle and more interested in seeing whether Time validates Price.
This analysis is shared before the outcome and is intended purely for educational purposes. It reflects my proprietary Time & Price framework and should not be considered investment advice.
Nifty strategy for 22-07-2026Nifty may open on gap down note as per sgx nifty around at 24120 levels. coming to yesterday session nifty hover between 24120 to 24280 levels and finally closed at 24187 with 50 points down and formed a doji candle on daily charts which is undecisive candle. I am expecting nifty may take support at 24130 levels because nifty has taken support twice at these level in yesterday if nifty break these level it may tested 24050 levels in today session. crude oil prices spikes to 92 dollors which is negative to our market and especially to bank nifty so traders trade with strict stop loss.pharma companies may take some pressure due to trump announced tarriffs on the generic drugs so traders watch with negative view on this sector.
nifty trading levels :
sell price (opening price for risky trades)
:24205(for safe traders)
stop loss : 24280(on daily closing basis)
1st target : 24105
2nd target :24050
stock of the day : PI industries in this stock breakout occured on the symmetrical triangle pattern with above average volumes so i am expecting a rally in this stock upto 2750 so investors trade in this stock with strict stop losses.
buy price :(open price for risky traders)
:(2660 for safe traders)
stop loss : 2640
target :2740
Disclaimer : I am not a SEBI Research Analyst please take advise from your financial advisor before take position based on my recommendation.
Thanking for your support if liked my content please suggest to your friends to follow my channel
Please drop a comment on whether my recommendation is useful and correct my mistakes
NASD100 SELL IDEAPrice has found resistance zone. I'm looking forward to selling from the current market price. our expected target profit is at the swing low of 28000 this is a potential sell opportunity.
Short
Nifty Analysis EOD – 21 July, 2026 – Tuesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – 21 July, 2026 – Tuesday 🔴
Compression Continued: Inside the Inside: Silent Expiry
🗞 Nifty Summary
Nifty opened flat to negative and made a brief attempt to test the PDH, but 24,260 acted as strong resistance and pushed price back down. The index then slowly and steadily breached the IBL and moved to the 24,160 support zone. From there, the rest of the session was spent within a tight 24,190 ~ 24,160 band — just a 30-point range.
There was one attempt to break below this range, but the PDL held as strong support and a sharp recovery brought price back to the upper band. After 3:00 PM, the range compressed further to just 16 points, and the session ended quietly at 24,193.95 with no real displacement in either direction.
Today’s weekly expiry closed very silently — no struggle, no drama. On the daily time frame, we’re still inside the previous day’s range, which is itself inside the prior bar. That’s deep contraction. A breakout on either side is needed before an expansion play can develop.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,216.05
High: 24,262.20
Low: 24,135.65
Close: 24,187.70
Change: −50.80 (−0.21%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Type: Bearish Spinning Top — price drifted lower but neither side committed
Range: ≈ 127 points — low volatility
Body: ≈ 28 points — minimal seller pressure, no real follow-through
Upper Wick: ≈ 46 points — mild supply rejection at the open area
Lower Wick: ≈ 52 points — buyers defended the lows but lacked energy to reclaim
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 239.60
IB Range: 112.45 → Medium
Market Structure: Balanced
Trade Highlights:
09:53 Long Trade: SL Hit
10:22 Short Trade: Trailing SL Hit (small loss)
11:43 Short Trade: SL Hit
12:58 Short Trade: SL Hit
Trade Summary: Four trades today and all four closed in the red — three clean SL hits and one trailing SL that still ended with a small loss. On a day this compressed, the system kept finding setups that the market simply refused to follow through on. It happens. The structure was balanced, the range was tight, and that combination doesn’t always play well with momentum entries. Nothing to force-correct here — this was the market’s day, not mine.
🧱 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones: 24,260 | 24,300 | 24,360 ~ 24,380 | 24,430 | 24,460
Support Zones: 24,200 ~ 24,160 | 24,100 | 24,030
🧠 Final Thoughts
“When the market stops talking, stop trying to finish its sentences.”
Today was a reminder that not every session hands you something clear. The index spent most of the day in a 30-point box — and on a weekly expiry day, that silence is its own kind of message. Four SL hits across four trades says less about the setups and more about the conditions. Balanced structure, compressed range, no expansion — the Gladiator system was looking for a move that the market had already decided not to make.
Looking into tomorrow, the key zone to watch is 24,200 ~ 24,160 on the support side. If that holds and price starts pushing above 24,260, there’s a case for an expansion attempt toward 24,300 and beyond. A clean break below 24,160, on the other hand, opens the door toward 24,100 and possibly 24,030. The inside-bar-within-inside-bar structure on the daily means whichever side breaks first, it could move with some energy.
Four reds in a row can feel heavy at the end of the day. But forcing trades into a market that’s made up its mind to do nothing is a different kind of mistake. Tomorrow I come in fresh, watch the levels, and let the price show me something before I act.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is my personal digital diary and represents my own analysis and point of view. It is not financial advice; please consult a professional advisor before making any trading decisions.
DAX/GER be PREPAER DEAR traders and followers,
as we move into the European market open, we will be focusing on DAX/GER — this is where precision and discipline matter most.
My TradingView account has finally been reactivated.
I was banned twice for 30 days each for using the phrase “TARGET HIT”, which is not allowed. The correct term is “TARGET REACHED.”
I’m now fully aware of the rule, and it won’t happen again.
Even during those two months of restrictions, I maintained zero losing days.
This is what proper trading looks like — discipline, risk control, and consistency.
Let’s continue trading the right way.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
This is how you trade properly.
Learn to cut losses immediately when a mistake happens. If you see a real opportunity, you can increase volume — but only with a stop‑loss in place. That’s the reason I’m able to make profit consistently every day.
Small volume is your best friend. It gives you room for a proper stop‑loss, keeps your mind calm, and makes it easier to reach your daily target without stress.
Forget about the fake gurus talking about 1:4, 1:8, 1:16. It’s all unrealistic marketing. You don’t need magic ratios — you need a clear daily target and the discipline to work toward it step by step.
Consistency beats fantasy. Discipline beats ego. Targets beat dreams.
U.S. Dollar Index Reclaims 101.00, Can Buyers Extend the RecoverMarket View
The U.S. Dollar Index remains in a broader bullish structure on the 4H chart, while the latest rebound suggests that buyers are attempting to regain short-term control.
After rising from the 98.00 area, DXY formed a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows before reaching the 101.60–101.70 region. Since then, price has moved into a broad consolidation, with repeated pullbacks finding support above 100.50.
The latest recovery back above 101.00 is constructive, but the index is still trading below the recent swing highs. For now, the market remains in a bullish consolidation rather than a confirmed breakout.
Key Resistance Zone
First resistance: 101.20–101.35
This is the nearest short-term resistance zone and the first area buyers need to reclaim.
A confirmed move above this region would strengthen the current recovery.
Second resistance: 101.45–101.60
This area has produced several recent rejections and remains the main supply zone inside the current range.
Major resistance: 101.65–101.80
This is the recent swing-high region and the key breakout zone.
A sustained move above 101.80 would confirm a fresh higher high and strengthen the broader bullish outlook.
Key Support Zone
First support: 100.90–101.00
This is the nearest short-term support area and an important pivot around the current price.
Holding above this region would keep the latest recovery structure intact.
Second support: 100.60–100.75
This area has attracted buyers during recent pullbacks and remains an important structural support.
Major support: 100.35–100.50
This is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation.
A confirmed break below this zone would weaken the short-term bullish structure and place sellers back in control.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is cautiously bullish.
The latest rebound has improved short-term momentum, while the broader trend still favors buyers. However, repeated hesitation below the recent highs shows that the market still needs a confirmed breakout.
Above 101.35, bullish momentum may strengthen.
Below 100.90, bearish pressure may begin to increase.
Please share your view below:
Will DXY hold above 101.00 and break through 101.35 toward the recent highs? Or will sellers defend resistance and push the index back toward 100.70?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
