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US30 15m — Buying the Dip, Waiting for the Level | Jul 16The Dow's been grinding higher and the trend is in good shape. Higher lows off 52,500, a rising VWAP underneath price, and a push up to 52,930 before this pullback. The move sold off into VWAP around 52,600, found buyers there, and has bounced back to 52,707.
Conditions are as clean as they get — volatility is expanding on both timeframes, pointed up, and the trend is well-established rather than fresh. This is a continuation environment. The play is buying dips, not fading rallies and not shorting into strength.
But I'm not buying 52,707.
Price is mid-range right now — about 90 points off VWAP, having already bounced. There's no structure right here to lean a stop against. Entering in the middle means either putting a stop somewhere arbitrary and tight, or taking wide risk for a mediocre entry. Neither is a trade I want.
What I actually want:
Long (option one): A second pullback into the rising VWAP around 52,620 that holds. Buyers defending it again, sellers failing to follow through. That's a real level with a real invalidation below it, targeting 52,930 and above.
Long (option two): A clean break above 52,930 that comes back and retests it as support. Same idea — buy strength on a dip, with structure underneath.
Stop goes below whichever level holds, with room for the noise. This tape moves; a stop jammed right under the entry is just a donation.
Short: Not on my radar. Fading a well-established uptrend with both timeframes aligned is fighting the whole market for a scalp. Not worth it.
The trend is my friend here — but the entry still has to earn it. Wait for the level, don't buy the middle.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan. 
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DXY - Watch Daily CloseBefore diving into this post I highly recommend reviewing my previous idea. It lays out a lot of the market structure I have been tracking for the DXY within this range, and so far it has been a very reliable indicator of how the dollar has reacted around these levels:
From July 2nd to July 13th, the DXY was able to maintain the retest and hold above the top of the channel, preparing for a larger move to the upside.
However, yesterday the DXY broke back into the channel and closed the first daily candle back inside it since the original breakout on June 22, 2026. This is a very significant development as it could support some of the ideas I have been outlining for crypto and commodities to see additional upside. A weaker dollar could provide the necessary fuel to lift those risk-on assets.
That is exactly why today's and tomorrow's close are so important.
If the DXY closes back at the top of the channel and algorithms begin triggering sell orders on Friday from that level, that would confirm a reclaim of the parallel channel.
If that occurs, two scenarios become likely for the dollar from that weaker standpoint. Either the DXY sees a small selloff toward the 50 MA and uses that as an accumulation level before re-breaking above the parallel channel, ultimately leading to the larger move I have been expecting for the DXY toward the end of the year.
The alternative scenario is that sellers take back control more decisively in the short term and the dollar experiences deeper weakness, leading back toward the heartline of the parallel channel.
Either way, it all comes down to how today's and tomorrow's candles close in relation to the market structure I have been outlining for the past few months.
It would make a lot of sense to see some dollar weakness here, especially given what I have been predicting for other risk-on assets and their current market structure. That said, the higher timeframe view for the DXY remains a much larger move to the upside, though that move is more likely to occur closer to Q4. 
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S&P 500 (SPCFD) Friends, this is the 4-hour chart for Tesla. Observe carefully:
This chart a 'Smart Money Concepts' (SMC) view of the S&P 500 (SPCFD) on a daily timeframe, extending to July 16, 2026.
Chart Analysis Summary
This setup focuses on identifying market inefficiencies and liquidity zones to anticipate future price movements.
Current Price Action: The S&P 500 is trading around the 7,558.46 level. The chart shows a resistance area slightly above current levels and a "RETEST PENDING" zone below.
Key SMC Elements:
VI: In the context of this SMC-style chart, this likely refers to a 'Value Imbalance' or a specific zone of institutional interest acting as a support level. This is distinct from the "Vortex Indicator" (a separate technical oscillator).
The "RETEST PENDING" label indicates an expectation for the price to return to this VI zone before considering a long entry.
ERL (External Range Liquidity): This marks the swing high where stop-loss orders are likely clustered.
Context for July 16, 2026
As of July 16, 2026, the S&P 500 is trading in a record-breaking environment, although signs of divergence in market breadth have emerged. Tech mega-caps have been the primary drivers of the index's performance, while other sectors have experienced volatility.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical observations and the specific labels provided on your chart. Markets are influenced by numerous complex macroeconomic factors—such as interest rate expectations, earnings reports, and geopolitical events—that can override technical chart patterns. Please use this information as part of your comprehensive research and risk management process.
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4H Roadmap: The Structure That Will Decide the Weekly Scenario# **DXY | 4H Roadmap: The Structure That Will Decide the Weekly Scenario 🌀**
Greetings, fellow wave practitioners.
In the previous weekly analysis, I presented two valid long-term scenarios for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): an **Aggressive Scenario** and a **Conservative Scenario**. The purpose of this 4-hour update is to determine which of those higher-degree paths the market is currently constructing.
From the most recent major high, the initial decline is unfolding as a **three-wave structure**. This is a crucial observation because those three waves form the foundation for interpreting the higher-degree count. The real question is not where price is going next—it is **what structure these three waves actually represent.**
At this stage, the current rally may simply be a corrective move. If this correction completes within the highlighted reaction zone, the preferred interpretation is that the market is developing **Wave (4) of a Leading Diagonal**. Under this scenario, one final decline would be expected to complete **Wave (5)** of the diagonal, thereby finishing the entire higher-degree **Wave (A)**.
However, markets rarely choose the simplest path. Should the current correction extend beyond the expected characteristics of a typical fourth wave, more complex corrective structures must also be considered. What appears today as a simple correction could evolve into a **Double Zigzag (W-X-Y)** or even a **Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z)**, requiring additional time before the correction is fully completed.
For this reason, the focus should not be placed solely on price targets. The highlighted reaction zones, corrective channels, and—most importantly—price behavior around those areas will provide the strongest evidence for identifying the market's true structure. Until that structure becomes clear, every wave count that remains consistent with the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle deserves consideration.
Ultimately, the interpretation of this 4-hour structure will determine which of the two weekly scenarios gains confirmation.
If the market completes the current correction and then produces one final decline to finish the Leading Diagonal, the **Aggressive Scenario** will gain significant credibility. In that case, the recent decline would represent only **Wave (A)** of a much larger corrective sequence, to be followed by a higher-degree **Wave (B)** and eventually **Wave (C)**.
On the other hand, if price decisively breaks above the key structural levels and no longer behaves consistently with the expected diagonal or corrective pattern, the **Aggressive Scenario** would gradually lose validity. That outcome would strengthen the **Conservative Scenario**, suggesting that the larger correction has already ended and that the U.S. Dollar Index may be entering a new long-term bullish phase.
At this point, the answer will not come from prediction—it will come from **price behavior**.
As Elliott Wave analysts, our objective is not to forecast the future with certainty. Our objective is to identify the structure the market is building in real time. Once that structure reveals itself, the higher-degree roadmap becomes considerably clearer.
**Patterns whisper. I listen.**
**— Mr. Nobody** 📊🌀
Dollar Index Future
2 days ago
DXY | Corrective Structure Under the Microscope
Long
GER30 H1 | Bearish Reaction Off Pullback ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud.
Sell entry: 24,926.74
- Pullback resistance
- 61.8% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 25,071.29
- Swing high resistance
Take Profit: 24,736.02
- Swing low support
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk), Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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NIFTY ANALYSIS | FRIDAY, 17 JULY 2026 | DAILY→4H→1H→ 15M → 5M TF# 📊 NIFTY ANALYSIS | FRIDAY, 17 JULY 2026 | DAILY → 4H → 1H → 15M → 5M 🔥
**Previous Close:** **24,072.75**
**Change:** **-5.75 (-0.02%)**
NIFTY ended almost flat after another session of consolidation. Despite early selling pressure, buyers defended the **24,050-24,000** region, preventing a deeper decline. However, the index continues to trade below the major resistance zone around **24,150-24,200**, where option writers remain aggressive. The latest option chain shows the highest Call Open Interest at **24,200**, while **24,000** continues to hold the strongest Put base. Institutions are still favoring range trading rather than directional bets. Markets continue demonstrating that moving five points after six hours somehow counts as "price discovery."
---
# 📌 PREVIOUS SESSION OHLC (16 JULY 2026)
* **Open:** 24,142.10
* **High:** 24,186.50
* **Low:** 24,050.00
* **Close:** **24,072.75**
---
# 📈 DAILY CHART ANALYSIS
* NIFTY continues trading inside a well-defined consolidation range.
* Price remains below the recent swing resistance near **24,200**.
* The Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) is located around **24,197**, indicating the area where institutions accumulated the most volume.
* RSI remains close to the neutral zone, suggesting momentum is neither strongly bullish nor bearish.
* Bulls need a sustained breakout above **24,200** to regain momentum.
---
# 📊 DAILY FIBONACCI LEVELS
**Swing High:** **26,348.70**
**Swing Low:** **22,187.85**
| Fibonacci Level | Price |
| --------------- | ------------: |
| 23.6% | **23,169.80** |
| 38.2% | **23,777.30** |
| 50.0% | **24,268.25** |
| 61.8% | **24,759.25** |
| 65.0% | **24,892.40** |
| 78.6% | **25,458.30** |
| 1.618 Extension | **25,440.55** |
### Institutional Interpretation
* Price is still below the **50% Fibonacci level (24,268)**.
* Long-term bullish structure remains intact while **23,777** holds.
* Any rally below **24,268** may continue to face institutional selling.
---
# 🏦 MARKET BIAS
🟢 **Bullish Above:** **24,200**
🟡 **Range Bound:** **24,000 - 24,200**
🔴 **Bearish Below:** **24,000**
---
# 🏛️ INSTITUTIONAL VIEW
### Market Regime
Consolidation with a neutral bias.
### Institutional Control
Option writers remain in control.
### Immediate Resistance
* **24,100**
* **24,150**
* **24,200**
* **24,300**
### Immediate Support
* **24,050**
* **24,000**
* **23,950**
* **23,900**
---
# 📊 OPTION CHAIN VIEW (Latest)
### ATM Strike
**24,100**
### Maximum Call OI
✅ **24,200** (**143,323 contracts**)
### Maximum Put OI
✅ **24,000** (**99,638 contracts**)
### Fresh Call Writing
* **24,150 (+17,593)**
* **24,100 (+12,605)**
* **24,200 (+5,189)**
* **24,300 (+4,565)**
* **24,250 (+2,666)**
### Fresh Put Writing
* **24,050 (+22,302)**
* **23,900 (+21,643)**
* **23,800 (+18,037)**
* **24,100 (+15,423)**
* **24,000 (+8,312)**
### Institutional Interpretation
* Heavy Call Open Interest at **24,200** makes it the strongest resistance.
* Strong Put Open Interest at **24,000** continues to provide downside protection.
* Significant Put writing at **24,050** suggests buyers are attempting to shift support slightly higher.
* Unless either **24,000** or **24,200** is decisively breached, expect another option-writers' market.
---
# 📊 VOLUME PROFILE ANALYSIS
### Point of Control (POC)
**24,197**
### High Volume Zone
**24,150 - 24,200**
### Interpretation
* Price remains below the POC.
* Institutions are likely to defend the **24,180-24,200** zone.
* Acceptance above **24,200** would strengthen bullish momentum.
* Failure to reclaim the POC keeps upside limited.
---
# 🟢 HIGH PROBABILITY CE TRADE
### Setup
15-minute close above **24,200**
### Confirmation
* Successful retest
* RSI above 55
* Strong buying volume
### Stop Loss
**24,120**
### Targets
* **T1:** 24,250
* **T2:** 24,300
* **T3:** 24,400
### Probability
**40%**
---
# 🔴 HIGH PROBABILITY PE TRADE
### Setup
15-minute close below **24,000**
### Confirmation
* Failed retest
* RSI below 45
* Strong selling volume
### Stop Loss
**24,080**
### Targets
* **T1:** 23,950
* **T2:** 23,900
* **T3:** 23,800
### Probability
**35%**
---
# 📈 MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
## 4H Timeframe
**Trend:** Neutral
**Support:** 24,000 / 23,900
**Resistance:** 24,150 / 24,200
---
## 1H Timeframe
**Trend:** Sideways
Price continues trading below the institutional volume zone.
---
## 15-MIN Timeframe
### Immediate Resistance
* 24,100
* 24,150
* 24,200
### Immediate Support
* 24,050
* 24,000
* 23,950
---
## 5-MIN EXECUTION PLAN
### CE Buyers
Buy only after a confirmed breakout above **24,200**.
**Targets:**
24,250 → 24,300 → 24,400
### PE Buyers
Sell only after a confirmed breakdown below **24,000**.
**Targets:**
23,950 → 23,900 → 23,800
---
# 🎯 TRADING SCENARIOS
### 🟢 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
**Probability:** **40%**
**Trigger:** Sustained move above **24,200**
**Targets:** 24,250 → 24,300 → 24,400
---
### 🟡 Scenario 2: Sideways Consolidation
**Probability:** **40%**
**Range:** **24,000 - 24,200**
Option sellers are likely to continue benefiting if this range holds.
---
### 🔴 Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown
**Probability:** **20%**
**Trigger:** Sustained move below **24,000**
**Targets:** 23,950 → 23,900 → 23,800
---
# ⚠️ INVALIDATION LEVELS
### Bullish View Invalid
15-minute close below **24,000**
### Bearish View Invalid
Sustained close above **24,200**
---
# 💡 KEY TRADER NOTE
* **24,000** remains the strongest institutional support, backed by the highest Put Open Interest.
* **24,200** remains the strongest resistance with the highest Call Open Interest (**143,323 contracts**).
* The **Volume Profile POC at 24,197** is the key institutional pivot. A sustained move above it could trigger fresh buying, while rejection below it favors continued consolidation.
* Until NIFTY decisively escapes the **24,000-24,200** range, disciplined traders are likely to be rewarded more than impatient predictors. The market, in its endless generosity, keeps offering expensive lessons to anyone convinced it "has to move now."
#Nifty50 #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #OptionTrading #StockMarketIndia #IntradayTrading #SwingTrading #BankNifty #Fibonacci #SupportAndResistance #Options #NSE #TradingStrategy #MarketStructure #VolumeAnalysis #SmartMoney #TechnicalCharts #MomentumTrading #IndianStockMarket #RiskManagement
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Nifty Analysis — 22 Sessions, One Box: The Coil That Won't BreakNifty Analysis — 22 Sessions, One Box: The Coil That Won't Break
15th June to 16th July, 2026 — 31 Days, 22 Trading Sessions
There is something unusual happening on the Nifty daily chart right now — and it has been building quietly for over a month.
Since 15th June, Nifty has spent 22 consecutive sessions oscillating inside a ~500-point range. No sustained breakout. No meaningful trend. Just price going back and forth between the same walls, session after session.
Here is what those sessions have looked like up close:
16th July — Inside Bar
15th July — Outside Bar
14th July — Inside Bar
13th July — Outside Bar
9th July — Inside Bar
8th July — Master Candle / Mother Candle
3rd, 6th & 7th July — Fakeout
The Ranges at Play
Main Range: 23,785 ~ 24,260 — approximately 475 points
MC Range (Master Candle): 23,805 ~ 24,300 — approximately 495 points
The 8th July Master Candle is the anchor of all of this. Everything since has played out inside its boundaries
What’s more interesting is what has happened in the last 4 sessions since that fakeout. The range has been quietly shrinking:
Current Box Range: 24,000 ~ 24,260 — just 260 points
The market is coiling tighter within an already tight range. That is roughly half the width of the original range, playing out inside its upper half.
What This Means
The alternating Inside Bar → Outside Bar pattern on 13th, 14th, 15th, and 16th July is worth watching on its own. Outside bars absorb and reset. Inside bars compress and wait. Two cycles of this back to back, with price unable to escape the box either way, says the market hasn’t made up its mind — but it is getting closer to having to.
The fakeout in early July was the first real test of the range. Price broke, moved 280 points, and came back in. That failed breakout has likely trapped positions on both sides, which is part of why the range is holding — there is overhead supply from trapped longs and potential demand from trapped shorts, both sitting near the edges.
Where Things Stand
Twenty-two sessions. Thirty-one calendar days. The same 500-point box.
Every session that ends inside the range adds one more layer of energy to the eventual move. The question isn’t whether the range breaks — it will. The question is whether the break holds, or whether it becomes another fakeout that pulls price back in.
The levels to watch for confirmation:
Above: A daily close above 24,300 (MC Range high) with follow-through
Below: A daily close below 23,785 (Main Range low) with follow-through
Until one of those happens, this is still the same chart it has been for a month. And the waiting continues.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is my personal digital diary and represents my own analysis and point of view. It is not financial advice; please consult a professional advisor before making any trading decisions. ASX 200 eyeing a pattern breakoutWe have some interesting price action brewing on the ASX 200.
Although a pullback from 8,983 occurred following the break of a double-bottom pattern’s neckline at 8,811, price is beginning to find a footing without breaching the pattern’s lows of around 8,485. The pattern’s profit objective is still calling for attention at 9,128.
Additionally, you may acknowledge the potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern now forming, with the neckline at 8,900. A break above here may help reaffirm bullish intent from the double-bottom formation, targeting the said profit objective of 9,128.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill 
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UK100 H2: Why 10,430 Is the Only Level That Matters
▪️ UK100 H2 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ the FTSE 100 is rotating near 10,465 inside a well-worn range, respected on both sides. Price is fair-valued between supply and demand.
▪️ Primary outlook is neutral — 10,430 is the level to watch; the range holds until it doesn't.
▪️ Key resistance zone: 10,560, leaned on 29 times. There is little labelled supply above it, so a break runs into open air.
▪️ Major defense line: 10,430 — a very strong level at 56 retests, the floor that has repeatedly turned price.
▪️ Primary downside targets on a break: 10,322, where liquidity pools.
▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 10,430–10,322 — the pull if the floor cracks.
▪️ Bullish scenario: Reclaim 10,560 and 10,560 becomes the objective bulls want.
▪️ KEY LEVELS
▪️ Current Price: 10,465
RESISTANCEs
▪️ 10,560 — ★★★ 7.6 Strong · 29 retests
SUPPORTs
▪️ 10,430 — ★★★★ 8.2 Very Strong · 56 retests
▪️ 10,322 — ★ 5.5 Weak · 49 retests
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for UK100, NVDA, NQ, ES & GC traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels. Short 
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