Renew blockade of Strait of Hormuz support for the US dollar.Renewed Middle East tensions have reignited inflation concerns as oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz halts again. Meanwhile, the latest US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stockpile fell to its lowest level since 1984, which may pressure the US to resolve the conflicts sooner.
Meanwhile, Fed’s Waller noted that the Fed should raise interest rates soon this month if inflation remains persistent. The swap market indicates that the odds of a rate hike this month have surged to 50%. However, today's CPI release may ease due to the recent decline in oil prices, but the market focuses more on the Core CPI figure, which gauges stable inflation factors. A stronger-than-expected Core CPI may further bolster rate hike expectations and provide additional support for the US dollar index.
Technically, the US dollar index broke above 101.2 and remains above this level with expanding EMAs, signaling potential further upside.
If the US dollar index breaches above 101.40, the price may advance to find resistance at 101.70.
Conversely, falling below 101.2 may prompt a decline toward the next support at 100.60.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness 
Long
DAX 40: 25,000 Cracks Overnight - Sellers Gathering at 24,840While Europe slept, the world got louder. Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, Washington answered with strikes, oil ripped 9% higher - and the DAX quietly gave back 25,000 in the overnight session. This morning's cash open delivered the verdict: no reclaim. Price is trading in the 24,900s and sellers are gathering at the last floor standing.
ONE STRAIT, ONE FLOOR
Roughly 20% of the world's oil moves through Hormuz - that is why a closed strait shows up in Frankfurt within hours. 25,000 survived four tests last week; the fifth came at 2 AM with nobody at the desk, and the open confirmed it: the round number is now the ceiling. Below sits 24,840, last Wednesday's drop low - the make-or-break. Above, 25,200 (the July 2 breakout shelf) is still the level that flips this structure bullish.
THE TRADE
Short on a 1H close below 24,840, stop above 25,000, target 24,636. Between 24,840 and 25,000 I do nothing - that pocket is where stops get eaten. If the market reclaims 25,000 and holds it, I stand aside. No trade is also a position.
WHERE I'M WRONG
Back above 25,200 and the top-out call is dead. No shame in that.
A BREAK AT 2 AM IS A CLAIM - DAYLIGHT IS THE VERDICT
Thin overnight liquidity breaks levels that the open sometimes takes straight back. That is why this idea waited for the cash open: the first thing Frankfurt did was sell the bounce. When fresh sellers show up in daylight to defend an overnight break, the break is real. This zooms into the floor from my daily map, "DAX: Back Above 25,000 After a 1,060-Point Dive". ()
I will update this idea as the levels get tested. 
Short
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bull Run Continues | 102.500 Target📊 DXY "U.S. DOLLAR INDEX" — Index CFD Market Trade Opportunity Guide (Day/Swing Trade)💹
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — Thief OG's, 👑
The vault doors are open again! 🔓 The Greenback is flexing its muscle and the Thief Trader radar has locked onto DXY. Let's plan this heist with precision. 🎯
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📈 PLAN: BULLISH SETUP
🗝️ Vault Zone (Entry):
You can enter the market at any price level — flexible entry, thief style. No rush, no FOMO. 🥷🎯
Getaway Points (Targets):
Heads up Thief OG's — a Police Force Zone (strong resistance) sits ahead, layered with overbought conditions + a potential trap/reversal risk. Escape with profits before the sirens go off! 🚨
🏦 Main Getaway Target: @ 102.500
⚡ Day Trader Getaway 1: @ 101.500
⚡ Day Trader Getaway 2: @ 102.000
🚔 Thief SL (Stop Loss):
@ 99.500
📝 Note: I'am not recommending you set only my TP/SL blindly — that's your own call, Thief OG's. Make money, then take money, at your own risk. 💰
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🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH ($-denominated)
💶 EUR/USD ($1.1360 zone): Inverse correlation — EUR carries the heaviest DXY basket weight (~57.6%). A bullish DXY heist typically drags Fiber lower.
💷 GBP/USD ($1.3350 zone): Inverse correlation — Cable tends to slide when the Dollar squad flexes strength.
💴 USD/JPY (¥162.00 zone): Positive correlation — Dollar strength + energy-driven yield spreads keep this pair climbing.
🇨🇭 USD/CHF ($0.8000+ zone): Positive correlation — Swissy often tracks DXY's directional footprints closely.
🥇 XAU/USD ($4,000 zone): Inverse correlation — Gold is the getaway rival; when Dollar robs the market, Gold usually pays the price.
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🌍 FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO INTEL
🏛️ Fed funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% since the June FOMC meeting — first policy meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
📊 June CPI data is due for release today, following May's inflation print at a three-year high, driven largely by energy costs.
🗣️ Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify before Congress this week, alongside several other Fed officials — markets will parse every word for rate-path clues.
⚔️ Safe-haven flows remain active as Middle East tensions (US-Iran, Strait of Hormuz) continue to influence oil prices and broader risk sentiment.
📉 Rate-hike odds for the July 28–29 FOMC meeting remain a live debate among market participants, with expectations shifting session to session based on incoming data.(This is a neutral snapshot of what the market is actually pricing — not shaped to fit the trade direction above.)
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📅 UPCOMING HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS (London Time 🇬🇧)
🔸 US CPI (June) — Today, 13:30 London Time
🔸 Fed Chair Warsh Congressional Testimony — This week, ~15:00 London Time
🔸 FOMC Interest Rate Decision — 29 Jul, 19:00 London Time
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Thief Trader's Wisdom:
"A real thief doesn't chase the market — he waits in the shadows for the market to walk into the trap." 🌙
"Discipline is the mask that hides fear. Wear it every trade." 🎭 NAS100 H1 | Bullish Recovery AheadOn the 1-hour timeframe, NAS100 has shown a strong bullish reaction after sweeping liquidity from the 28,650–28,700 Sell-Side Liquidity zone. The sharp rejection from this area confirms that institutional buyers stepped into the market, leading to a Market Structure Shift (MSS) and signaling that bearish momentum has weakened significantly.
Price has successfully reclaimed the broken descending trendline and is now trading above a series of higher lows, indicating that buyers are gradually taking control of the short-term market structure. The recent impulsive rally suggests that the market is attempting to retrace toward premium pricing, with the next objective being the nearby Order Block around 29,450–29,500.
This Order Block is an important decision point. If buyers maintain momentum and secure a confirmed breakout above this level, the next upside target becomes the Strong Resistance & Higher-Timeframe Order Block (29,850–29,950). This zone previously triggered a significant bearish reaction and is expected to attract fresh selling interest once price revisits it.
A successful breakout above the major supply zone would expose the psychological 30,000 resistance, opening the path toward the higher-timeframe Strong Order Block near 30,250–30,350, where buy-side liquidity is likely resting. However, if price fails to hold above the current Order Block, a corrective pullback toward the 29,050–29,100 Propulsion Order Block & Support Zone remains a healthy possibility before buyers attempt another continuation move.
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, the market has completed a sell-side liquidity sweep, confirmed multiple bullish Market Structure Shifts (MSS), and transitioned into a bullish retracement phase. The overall structure favors buyers as long as price continues respecting higher lows and remains above the reclaimed support zones.
Key Levels to Watch
🟢 Support Zone: 29,050–29,100
📈 Current Order Block: 29,450–29,500
🟠 Strong Resistance & HTF Order Block: 29,850–29,950
🎯 Psychological Resistance: 30,000
🚀 Major HTF Order Block: 30,250–30,350
Overall Bias
📈 H1 Bias: Bullish. The recent liquidity sweep, bullish MSS, and recovery above the descending trendline indicate increasing buying strength. A sustained breakout above 29,500 would increase the probability of a continuation toward 29,900, followed by the 30,000–30,300 higher-timeframe supply zone.
TITLE THORA SHORT LIKHO 
Short
Long
NIFTY Weekly Expiry Outlook -14 JulyWeak global market sentiment suggests that Nifty could open with a gap-down.
Bullish Setup
If Nifty reclaims 24,100 and sustains above this level on a 15-minute closing basis, it may rally towards 24,160–24,180. A strong breakout above this zone could extend the move to 24,220 and above.
Bearish Setup
If Nifty fails to hold the 24,020–24,000 support zone, it may decline towards 23,940–23,900. A decisive break below 23,900 could lead to further downside.
My View
With today being weekly expiry, volatility is expected to remain high throughout the session. While Gift Nifty points to a weak opening, the first hour is likely to determine the day's trend. I will wait for confirmation instead of predicting the direction, as expiry sessions often witness sharp reversals and short-covering rallies.
Trading Suggestion
Avoid taking trades immediately
after the opening bell. Let the first 15–20 minutes pass and wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before entering. Trade with strict stop-losses, avoid chasing fast moves, and consider booking profits quickly, as option premiums can change rapidly on expiry day.
Trade the trend, not your prediction. Capital protection comes first.
Education purpose only and not financial advice. S&P 500 & GOLD CORRELATIONDON'T BE FOOLED BY THE S&P 500! Here's the chart I shared with my students on our 'Q3 Market Breakdown' report. Let's go into a bit more depth regarding it & how the S&P 500 could front-run the big move on Gold for the next few months.
From my 'Elliott Wave Theory' strategy point of view, the S&P 500 is possibly due one more ATH (All-Time-High) to complete Wave V (Major Wave 5). So far we've seen the Major Wave 3 & 4 complete, with the final bullish cycle in progress.
Wave 5 so far has created - Wave I, II, III & IV with final bullish leg Wave V now in progress. Check chart annotations🔺 As this bullish leg moves higher, it is likely to drag Gold higher with it towards $4,800 - $5,040📈
Once the S&P 500 completes this bullish cycle & starts to decline, we could witness a 27% crash. Institutional investors will panic from this crash & needs fund to keep their losing positions from being liquidated. This'll lead to them selling off their Gold, which should drag Gold to its next major target of $3,800 or even $2,800👀 Short 
NAS100: Double Top Confirmed — Can Bears Force a Flush?Here is a structured breakdown matching your selected title that you can copy and paste directly into your TradingView description box:
Overview
Following an aggressive multi-day rally, the NAS100 put in a local top just below the 29,900 mark. The index has now locked in a clean Double Top reversal pattern on the 4-hour timeframe.
The immediate breakdown past structural support has shifted control firmly to the sellers, opening up a clear path toward lower liquidity targets as momentum accelerates downward.
Key Technical Points
The Pattern Confirmation: The breakdown below the 29,321.8 ENTRY level officially validates the Double Top formation. This level has now successfully flipped from support to short-term resistance.
Momentum Breakdown: The Machine Learning RSI (Zeiierman) indicator tracked a stark lower high during the second peak, confirming a major shift in underlying momentum. The indicator line continues to slope sharply downward with no immediate signs of a bullish divergence.
Risk/Reward Parameters:
Invalidation / Stop Loss (SL): 29,431.1 (positioned safely above the recent localized structure breakdown)
Trading Scenarios to Watch
🐻 Bearish Case (Targeting Downside Liquidity): As long as price action remains capped underneath the broken entry line at 29,321.8, sellers remain completely in control. The immediate objective is a clean flush down to TP1 at 29,148.8 (Risk-to-Reward: 2), followed by a deeper extension toward TP2 at 28,975.8 (Risk-to-Reward: 4).
🐂 Bullish Invalidation: For this short setup to fail, the bulls must force an aggressive, high-volume reclaim of the 29,321.8 pivot line to trap the breakout bears and shift structure back into a sideways consolidation.
Are you shorting this Nasdaq breakdown to the targets, or expecting a fakeout bounce? Let me know your bias below! 
Short
Short
NASDAQBullish Analysis: Nasdaq (NASDAQ Composite / Nasdaq-100)
The Nasdaq remains one of the most compelling equity markets for long-term investors. Its heavy exposure to technology, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductors, and software positions it to benefit from some of the strongest structural growth trends in the global economy.
Why I'm Bullish
1. Artificial Intelligence Continues to Drive Growth
The biggest catalyst for the Nasdaq is the ongoing AI revolution.
Massive investments by companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle into AI infrastructure continue to fuel demand for chips, cloud services, networking equipment, and software. Corporate AI spending remains one of the primary drivers of U.S. equity performance.
2. Exceptional Earnings Growth
Technology companies continue to post some of the strongest earnings growth in the market.
Many analysts expect another robust earnings season, supported by:
AI monetization
Cloud computing demand
Enterprise software growth
Digital advertising recovery
Strong earnings remain the fundamental engine behind higher stock prices.
3. The Semiconductor Supercycle
The semiconductor industry remains one of the Nasdaq's largest growth engines.
Demand continues to expand for:
AI accelerators
Data center GPUs
High-bandwidth memory
Networking hardware
Advanced chip manufacturing
As long as AI infrastructure spending remains elevated, semiconductor companies are likely to continue supporting the broader Nasdaq.
4. Strong Balance Sheets
Many of the Nasdaq's largest companies hold:
Massive cash reserves
High operating margins
Strong free cash flow
Healthy returns on capital
This financial strength allows continued investment in innovation while returning capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.
5. Structural Growth Themes
Several long-term trends continue to support Nasdaq companies:
Artificial Intelligence
Cloud Computing
Cybersecurity
Digital Payments
Autonomous Systems
Robotics
Quantum Computing
Healthcare Technology
These secular growth themes are expected to persist well beyond the current business cycle.
6. Investor Confidence
Institutional investors continue to favor large-cap technology because these companies combine:
Consistent revenue growth
Strong profitability
Global market leadership
High liquidity
Even when market volatility rises, many investors rotate back into high-quality technology leaders.
Risks
The bullish outlook is balanced by several risks:
High valuations mean earnings must continue to meet expectations.
A more hawkish Federal Reserve or higher interest rates could pressure growth stocks.
Profit-taking after strong rallies can create short-term volatility.
Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, particularly involving semiconductors, remain important risks.
Investment Thesis
The Nasdaq remains at the center of the AI-driven transformation of the global economy. Continued investment in artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and leadership in innovation provide a solid foundation for long-term growth. While short-term pullbacks are normal after strong advances, the long-term trend remains constructive as long as earnings growth continues to justify valuations.
Bullish Rating: 9.2/10
Investment Horizon: 12–36 months
Key Catalysts to Watch:
AI-related earnings from major technology companies
Corporate guidance during earnings season
Semiconductor demand
Federal Reserve policy decisions
Continued enterprise AI adoption
Overall, the Nasdaq remains one of the strongest long-term growth indexes globally, with artificial intelligence serving as its primary structural growth engine. Long 
Long 
NIftyBank Index Intraday Technical Analysis for 14th July, 26NSE:BANKNIFTY
Nifty Bank Index (NSE) | Intraday Structure | July 14, 2026
Bank Nifty is trading around 58,117.60, hovering tightly right under the 58,131 Zero Line. The index is grinding through a localized consolidation block after pulling off a decent structural recovery from its lower demand areas over the previous sessions.
Price action enters the day compressed right against the central inflection pivot. Institutional participants are balancing risk within a tight cluster, waiting for a clear volume expansion candle to break away from this zone. Let the market establish structural acceptance outside this boundary before allocating size.
Bullish Triggers
Long Entry: Above 57,942 (strongly validated while price holds structural footing above the 57,856 Add Long Pos. band).
Targets: 58,581 - 58,859
Risk Control: Structure weakens below 57,856. Hard exit below 57,699.
Bearish Triggers
Short Entry: Below 57,770 (especially if liquidity pushes fail to crack the 58,131 Zero Line, turning it into a hard supply ceiling).
Targets: 57,682 - 57,404
Risk Control: Cover immediately above 58,013. Bias remains structurally protected above 57,492.
No-Trade Chop Zone: 57,699 - 57,942
Expect rotational, choppy price action within this zone as option writers defend their bands. Do not get caught up in early morning directional traps inside this block; wait for a clean 15-minute structural candle close to validate true intent.
Execution Rule: Structure first, confirmation next. Zero anticipation.
Hit Boost and drop your view in the comments if you're tracking these levels today.
#BankNifty Nifty Index Intraday Technical Analysis for 14th of July, 2026NSE:NIFTY
Nifty 50 Index (NSE) | Intraday Structure | July 14, 2026
Nifty is trading around 24,208.60, hovering tightly right below the 24,211 Zero Line. The index continues to consolidate its recent structural recovery, compressing into a tight decision band as institutional desks balance risk near the key inflection pivot.
Price action is winding exceptionally tight around the central benchmark level. Neither camp has initiated a definitive high-volume expansion leg, pointing to heavy option-writing premium decay ahead. Wait for a high-volume candle breakout away from this cluster before executing.
Bullish Triggers
Long Entry: Above 24,161 (strongly validated if price secures structural footing above the 24,130 Add Long band).
Targets: 24,371 - 24,471
Risk Control: Structure weakens below 24,130. Hard exit below 24,074.
Bearish Triggers
Short Entry: Below 24,099 (especially if the 24,211 Zero Line acts as a stubborn distribution ceiling early in the session).
Targets: 24,051 - 23,951
Risk Control: Cover immediately above 24,186. Day Bias remains protected above 24,000.
No-Trade Chop Zone: 24,074 - 24,161
Expect highly rotational, choppy price action within this block as market participants square off risk. Avoid chasing early morning spikes within this cluster; let a clean structural breakout establish real validation.
Execution Rule: Structure first, confirmation next. Zero anticipation.
Hit Boost and drop your view in the comments if you're tracking these levels today.
#Nifty50 Short 
KOSPI: Major Market Correction or the Ultimate Re-Accumulation?The South Korean KOSPI Composite Index is experiencing a massive, rapid sell-off, dropping over 8.9% on the daily chart and piercing straight through recent structural highs. After an explosive, overextended bull run lasting through late 2025 and early 2026, the market is aggressively unwinding and hunting for major institutional liquidity.
When a dominant trend corrects this heavily, we strip away the noise and focus purely on macro structural value. Here is how the technical roadmap shapes up for the next major market phase:
🔍 Key Structural Levels & Targets
1. The Immediate Battleground: Fair Value Area (Daily)
The index has just crashed directly into the Daily Fair Value Area (around 6,800 – 7,100).
This zone represents immediate historical price acceptance. If the bulls fail to hold a decisive structural pivot right here, the door swings wide open for a deeper macro correction.
2. The Dynamic Magnet: 200 EMA (Daily)
Hovering just below the current price action is the rising 200 EMA on the Daily chart (currently near 6,000).
In any healthy macro bull market, the 200 daily EMA acts as the ultimate line in the sand for trend validation. An extension down to this moving average would offer a classic mean-reversion retest.
3. The Ultimate Institutional Re-Accumulation Zone
If panic selling accelerates, the highest-probability confluence zone sits significantly lower: The Weekly Fair Value Area (3,700 – 4,600) paired with the 200 EMA on the Weekly chart.
This is where the true long-term institutional volume resides. Any capitulation down into this macro block should be monitored heavily for massive buying pressure and long-term position building.
💡 Trading Strategy & Outlook
Do not catch falling knives blindly. The momentum is heavily bearish in the immediate short term.
Conservative Approach: Wait for a clear price exhaustion pattern (e.g., strong wick rejections, momentum shifts, or structure breaks on lower timeframes) inside these designated value areas before looking for long setups.
Macro View: As long as the overand-above weekly trend structure holds, this aggressive correction is clearing out excessive market leverage and building the foundation for the next macro expansion phase. 
Short
Short
NIFTY 50 Bullish Continuation Toward 24,500 Resistance
NIFTY 50 has confirmed a strong bullish breakout from the consolidation range and is now attempting to continue its upward momentum. After a healthy pullback, buyers stepped in again, indicating renewed strength. As long as the price holds above the recent support zone, the bullish structure remains intact.
🎯 Target: 24,500
Key Levels:
Entry Zone: Around 24,180–24,220
Target: 24,500
Support: 24,000
Resistance: 24,500 
Long
US30 H4 | 50% Fib Resistance In SightThe price is rising to our sell entry level at 52,761.81, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop-loss is set at 53,211.51, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 52,137.79, which is an overla support.
High Risk Investment Warning
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