Bullish bounce in play?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could rise towards the 1st resistance, which is also a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 98.90
1st Support: 98.58
1st Resistance: 99.40
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NIFTY SENTIMNET ANALYSIS FOR 04/09/2026**NIFTY 50 — 4 SEPTEMBER 2026 | DAILY MARKET MAP 🎯**
🟢 **VERDICT: STRONG BULLISH**
⚡ **BEHAVIOUR: VOLATILE**
📈 **POSITIONING: CE DOMINANT**
⏰ **ANCHOR TIME: 10:20 AM**
### 🎯 KEY LEVELS
🔴 **24,078** — Major Resistance
🔴 **24,022** — Resistance
🎯 **23,966** — Key Level
📍 **23,921.50** — Current
🟢 **23,854** — Critical Support
### 🏆 SECTOR RANKING
🥇 **Banking — 5**
🥈 **IT / Midcap — 3**
🥉 **Energy — 2**
### 📌 MARKET SCENARIOS
⬆️ **Above 23,966 + sustain**
→ Bullish momentum toward **24,022 → 24,078**
⬇️ **Below 23,854 + sustain**
→ Bullish structure weakens.
⚠️ **Volatile behaviour:**
Avoid chasing the first move. Let price establish acceptance/rejection at the predefined levels.
**Price gives the level.
Time gives the trigger.
Reaction gives the truth.**
🎯 **Strong Bullish — but let price confirm it.**
*Educational market framework, not financial advice.*
#NIFTY #Nifty50 #TradingView #StockMarket #Trading #OptionsTrading
NFP data is the crucial todayThe US Dollar Index remains sensitive to the US labour-market outlook ahead of today’s August nonfarm-payrolls report. Market consensus expects payrolls to rebound modestly by around 55k following July’s 23k contraction, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and around 3.0% YoY.
A weaker-than-expected payrolls outcome, an increase in unemployment, softer wage growth, or negative revisions to prior data would reinforce concerns that US labour-market momentum is slowing. That outcome could increase expectations for a more accommodative Fed policy path, push Treasury yields lower, and place renewed pressure on the dollar.
Conversely, a stronger employment report, particularly one combining higher job creation with firm wage growth, could support US yields and prompt a short-term DXY rebound. However, the dollar’s recovery may be limited if markets continue to focus on slowing hiring conditions and the prospect of reduced Fed policy restraint. Therefore, the NFP report, unemployment rate, wage data, and revisions will be crucial for determining whether DXY extends its decline or stabilises after the recent selloff.
Technical analysis
The DXY remains bearish after failing to sustain its recovery above the 99.25 resistance level. The index reversed sharply lower from the 99.40-99.50 area, broke below 99.25, and extended losses toward the 98.55 support zone before staging only a limited rebound.
Price is trading below both the 21-period EMA near 99.35 and the 78-period EMA near 99.64. The shorter EMA remains below the longer EMA, and both moving averages are turning lower, confirming negative momentum and keeping the broader technical bias tilted to the downside. The recent rejection from the 99.40–99.50 area also preserves the sequence of lower highs, while the break below 99.25 signals that sellers have regained control.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Short 
NAS100 1H — Long from 1H FVG within channel toward range supplySetup:
NAS100 is rotating within a macro sideways range between the 28,900 demand zone and 29,800 supply zone . Price has formed a bullish ascending channel and is currently mitigating an internal 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG), setting up a high-probability continuation long ahead of high-impact U.S. labor data.
Price at time of research: 29,430.0
Why This Setup
1. Macro Range Dynamics & Ascending Channel
Following a decisive liquidity sweep and accumulation at the macro horizontal demand block (~ 28,900 ), NAS100 is printing a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel.
The primary directional objective remains the mean-reversion move toward the macro range supply zone (~ 29,800 ).
2. 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) Confluence
The recent impulsive rally left behind an unfilled 1H bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 29,330 and 29,450 .
Price is pulling back into this imbalance zone to rebalance liquidity, with 29,373.7 acting as an optimal institutional entry level aligned with the ascending channel's internal support trajectory.
3. Pre-NFP Macro Catalyst & Disciplined Invalidation
The market is positioning ahead of the high-impact U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate releases scheduled for today at 19:30 .
Risk parameters are strictly defined: placing the stop loss at 29,322.1 below the FVG invalidation point provides asymmetric risk-to-reward targeting the upper supply boundary at 29,749.2 .
Trade Plan
Bias: Long
Entry: 29,373.7 — 1H FVG mitigation & channel support
Stop Loss: 29,322.1
Invalidation: Firm 1H candle close below 29,322.1 — full FVG invalidation
Target 1: 29,650.0
Target 2: 29,749.2 — Channel upper boundary & macro Supply zone
Timeframe: 1H
Summary:
The setup is based on a bullish 1H FVG mitigation within an ascending channel, with the macro range structure supporting further upside toward the 29,800 supply zone. The key invalidation level remains 29,322.1, while 29,650.0 and 29,749.2 represent the primary upside objectives.
Long
Long
NAS100: Trendline Breakdown & Liquidity Retest🔹 NAS100 is showing a corrective shift after facing strong rejection from the 29,700–29,800 resistance area. Price has moved below the rising trendline that supported the previous advance, suggesting that short-term market structure has weakened. The recent lower high and move toward 29,100 highlight increasing selling pressure, while the 28,250–28,400 region stands out as a visible liquidity and support area.
🔸 If the bearish structure remains intact, price could continue exploring lower levels toward the highlighted liquidity area, particularly if the 29,200–29,300 region continues to act as resistance. On the other hand, a strong reclaim above the broken structure could shift the short-term view back toward the resistance zone. Traders may wait for clear price confirmation before considering any trade, while a failure to hold the current area could expose deeper support levels.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Short 
GER30 Trade Plan: Entry Flexibility & Defined Exit📈🇩🇪 GER30 GERMANY 30 | Thief OG's Bullish Blueprint 🚀💼
📉 Day/Swing Trade Opportunity Guide 🎯⏳
🔥 My Analysis:
The GERMANY 30 (GER30) is currently dancing around the 26,000 psychological level after a historic breakout. The four-hour chart shows a clear bullish alignment, with strong momentum as the price has pushed through previous resistance zones. This is not financial advice—this is Thief OG market psychology.
📊 Technical Breakdown:
Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling that volatility is picking up—perfect for the Thief style of trading. The Relative Strength Index is flirting with overbought territory, meaning the Police Force (sellers) are lurking just above. MACD histogram bars are still positive, confirming underlying momentum, but caution is required near record highs.
👮♂️ The "Police Force" (Resistance):
There is a STRONG RESISTANCE CLUSTER acting as the "Police Force" between 26,200 and 26,300. This area is likely to act as a TRAP for late buyers and a reversal zone. The plan is to escape with profits before the cops show up.
⚡️ My Market Bias:
BULLISH. However, we are in the "escape phase." The bias remains to the upside until we hit the target, but we are watching for signs of exhaustion. We are looking to go "Long" (Steal the move) but with a strict escape plan.
🎯 Possible Scenarios:
Scenario 1 (The Bullish Heist): Price continues the upward grind toward Target 1 @ 26,300. If momentum is insane (which it is), we may hit the Final Target @ 26,600.
Scenario 2 (The Reversal Trap): Price gets rejected aggressively at 26,300 due to overbought conditions and profit-taking. We escape before the "Police" arrive to push price back toward the stop-loss zone.
🎯 Areas I am watching (Key Levels):
Entry: YOU CAN ENTER THE MARKET AT ANY LEVEL (Thief style: if it hits your zone, you ride it).
Target 1 (Area of Interest / Profit Booking): 26,300
Final Target (The Main Escape Zone): 26,600
Stop Loss (The "Getaway" Floor): 25,600
Wait Zone / Re-Entry: If price rejects 26,300, watch for a pullback to 25,700 – 25,900 for a potential re-entry bounce.
📚 Educational Breakdown:
Why are we targeting these numbers? The 26,100 – 26,300 region was a major psychological and technical hurdle. Breaking through doesn't mean it becomes support immediately; it often creates a bull-trap scenario. The RSI near 70 suggests the move is extended; we are looking to ride the final wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) into the target.
🌍 Real-Time Market Context (The Macro Vibe):
We are in a "Risk-On" environment, but the thugs are watching the bond market closely.
Global Bond Yield Alarm: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are approaching 5%! If this breaks higher, we could see a stock market "knee-jerk" reaction to the downside.
Energy Costs: Oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions. Higher energy = higher inflation = potential central bank hawkishness. This is the wildcard that could force the "Police" to step in earlier.
Correlation Watch:
Correlation 1: If the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakens, GER30 tends to rally. If DXY spikes, run for the hills.
Correlation 2: Watch the U.S. Futures (US30 / US500). If the U.S. markets start to correct due to bond yields (they are correlated), the GER30 will follow.
💣 Important:
The "Thief" trade style relies on "Risk Management." We do not predict; we react. The market is currently pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike in September (that's bearish for stocks long-term). We are trading the short-term squeeze, not the long-term fundamentals.
🤝 Related Pairs to Watch:
🟢 US30 (Wall Street): GER30 has a high correlation with the US30. If Wall Street takes a dive, the GER30 will likely follow.
🟡 DXY (Dollar Index): The inverse relationship remains key. A weaker dollar tends to support the DAX.
📈 GOLD (XAUUSD): Bonds are selling off, which is pressuring Gold. If Gold continues to drop, it signals a "risk-off" vibe, which could limit upside on GER30.
💎 Thief Trader Style & Motivation:
"Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) I am not recommending to set only my TP or SL—it's your choice to take the money at your own risk. We are hunters of volatility, not gamblers. 'The market is a crowd; the crowd is dumb.' Be smart. Enter like a thief, escape like a ghost. 🚀👻"
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. This is not "financial advice," nor is it a guaranteed trade. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own due diligence and never risk more than you can afford to lose. "Safe trade" and "Guaranteed profit" are terms that belong to the police, not to us.
#GER30 #DAX #TradingView #ThiefTrading #DayTrading #SwingTrading #Germany30 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #RiskManagement #Trading #Dax30 #Forex #Indices 
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