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Pullback resistance ahead?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse towards the 1st support, which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 25,774.86
1st Support: 25,268.45
1st Resistance: 26,230.07
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Chapter 2: The Regular Investor and The TraderSecond chapter of the series. If you missed the first one, it is here . There is a short recap below for those who don't want to go back.
The trader's code
Chapter 2: The Regular Investor and The Trader
Quick recap of chapter 1 .
I have the degrees and years in the investment industry, and for a long time I lost money anyway, because analysing a company and trading a stock are two different jobs. And it isn't just me. The SPIVA report from Standard & Poor's shows that over 15 years about 9 out of 10 active funds in the US end up behind the S&P 500 , and in Europe and Canada the numbers are even worse. People with teams of analysts and all the resources in the world lose to an index fund that costs almost nothing. Meanwhile social media tells you every day what to buy and almost never when to sell.
So the question is why. Why do so many people who clearly know a lot about companies still lose ?
Because almost everyone is an amateur at the only part that really matters, which is managing the trade. They know what to buy, the ingredients, but they have no recipe. Giving someone an entry without an exit plan is like giving them flour, eggs and sugar and no instructions. How long in the oven? Do you eat it raw? You end up with a dirty kitchen and nothing to eat.
A trader with a system doesn't sit there at night asking himself whether he should sell. He answered that question before he bought.
I want to explain this with a poker table, because it is the picture that finally made it click for me.
The poker table
Picture a professional poker table in Las Vegas. Thousands of dollars in the middle. The dealer deals, the cards reach you, and you don't look at them.
You push all your chips forward and say all in.
The other players look at you. What have you got? And you say, quite calmly, that you have no idea. You didn't even notice you had cards.
BUT you read that this dealer is one of the best around, you like the colour of the table, and you saw on the news that more and more people are winning by going all in on the first round.
Nobody plays like that. Not even at a table with friends at home.
And yet that is how most people buy shares . Someone in a forum says this company is the future, or the CEO is a genius, and they buy. They don't know what hand they hold. No statistics, no idea what the odds were in the past, no idea when to get out. Just an opinion and the hope that it works.
Most of the time the market goes up , so for a while they are right almost by accident . The wins feed the ego, the losses get the usual excuse ("it will come back"), and this goes on until the drop that empties the account.
Playing blind is suicide in poker. It is the same in the market.
Why I prefer the market to poker
Now the part that made me fall in love with trading.
In poker, even when you look at your cards and find two aces, you still have a problem: the other people at the table. They watch you, they bluff, and with a bit of luck on the river they can still beat you with a worse hand. Your result depends on them.
In the market there is nobody across the table. Your only opponent is you.
And two aces exist here too . There are specific setups on a chart where the odds, measured over many years, are clearly not a coin flip. I didn't take anybody's word for that. I counted. More than 8 million patterns over 30 years on the 500 largest US companies. Most of them are noise. A few are not.
The full count comes later in this series.
The problem is that almost nobody knows how to spot them. People see lines and candles, but not the edge behind them.
I don't play average hands , the risk is too high for what they pay. I sit, I wait, and I watch a lot of hands go by.
When two aces show up, I play.
That is really the whole difference. The regular investor plays every hand, blind, and hopes. The trader folds most of the time and only plays the hands he has counted.
You can find some Aces in my profile :)
Next chapter: getting in, and why keeping it simple is a strength. You will see why most of what you look at on a chart is noise, and what one hand played properly looks like. Education 
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NIFTY SENTIMENt ANALYSIS FOR 17/09/2026# NIFTY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS | 17 SEP 2026
## STRONG BULLISH — NOW LET PRICE PROVE IT
Today's two-engine reading is aligned:
🟢 **Hybrid:** Bullish | Strong Bullish
🔥 **Unified:** Strong Bullish
⚡ **Force Score:** +8
💥 **Behaviour:** Explosive
🟢 **CE Dominant**
### 🎯 KEY PRICE LEVELS
**23,196.40** — Opening Reference
**23,252** — First Resistance
**23,308** — Major Resistance
**23,364** — Higher Resistance
**23,193.65** — Immediate Support
At the time of analysis:
**NIFTY: 23,242.30**
Price is sitting between the opening reference and the first resistance.
That makes **23,252** the immediate test.
➡️ Above 23,252 → watch 23,308 → 23,364
➡️ Below 23,193.65 → reassess the bullish thesis
### ⏰ TIME ANCHOR
**12:45 PM**
With the model showing **EXPLOSIVE behaviour**, the period around/after this anchor becomes an important observation window for:
• Expansion
• Reversal
• Directional resolution
The anchor is a **checkpoint, not a guarantee.**
### 👀 SECTORS TO WATCH
🏦 **BANKING +7** — Primary
💊 **PHARMA +3** — Secondary
👑 **LEADERSHIP 0** — Participation to monitor
The key sector question:
**Can Banking confirm the bullish price structure?**
If Banking participates as NIFTY clears resistance, the bullish thesis gains behavioural confirmation.
If sector participation weakens, that divergence becomes information.
### 🧠 THE FRAMEWORK
**Model → Hypothesis**
**Price → Evidence**
**Time → Checkpoint**
**Reaction → Verdict**
This is not about predicting every candle.
It is about knowing **what to watch, where to watch it and when to pay attention.**
📍 **Price gives the level.**
⏰ **Time gives the trigger.**
⚡ **Reaction gives the truth.**
**Strong Bullish is the hypothesis.
Now let the market grade it.** 🎯
*Market-context and educational analysis only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.*
#NIFTY #NIFTY50 #MarketSentiment #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketTiming #TradingView #NSE #IndianStockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #IntradayTrading #TradingPsychology #Banking #Pharma
Nifty Post Rate Hike📌 Key Levels to WatchCurrent Price: 23,217.60 (+0.43%)Immediate Floor (Support): 23,072.05 — The vital defensive line for buyers.Next Targets (Resistance): 23,600 (Immediate), 24,141.80 (Major road block).
➡️ The Projected SetupThe Downtrend: After hitting a peak near 24,774 in August, the market corrected sharply through September.The Yellow Path: The chart projects a steady recovery roadmap. It expects the index to bounce from the 23,072 floor, climb to 23,600, form a higher low, and eventually rally toward 24,141.The Risk: If the price breaks below 23,072.05, this bullish recovery plan is invalidated, opening the door for deeper drops. 
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US Dollar: If The Fed Hike It, Buy It!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sep 14 - 18th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: US Dollar
The USD has been weak in the short term by treasury yield buy-backs, surging oil prices, and higher than expected inflation data. However, it is still structurally bullish on the HTF charts. The last major BOS was to the upside, and the pullback we are in now is natural. The key is pinpointing where the retracement ends and the new bullish leg begins.
*FOMC is Wednesday. This news will give us all the information we need to trade intelligently. If the interest rate is raised, the USD is strong, and we just trade accordingly.
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
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KSE-100 Index – 4H Technical AnalysisThe KSE-100 Index on the 4-hour timeframe continues to maintain a bullish structure after forming a strong double bottom near 144,600, with price respecting the ascending channel and higher-low formation. Despite the earlier bearish RSI divergence that triggered a correction, the recent bullish RSI divergence near the 144,000 support zone indicates weakening selling pressure and a potential continuation of the uptrend. Currently, the index is consolidating above the key 166,000–167,000 region while holding the rising trendline, keeping the bullish outlook intact. As long as KSE-100 remains above the major support area around 160,000, the market favors a move toward the 180,000 resistance zone and possibly a retest of the all-time high near 191,000 in the coming sessions. 
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S&P 500 — Technical Analysis | 1DThe chart is showing a potential short-term bearish reversal inside a broader rising channel/wedge structure.
🔻 Bearish Setup
Price is currently trading around 7,535, after failing to hold the 7,560–7,600 resistance area.
The key signal is the break below the short-term rising trendline that has supported the latest leg higher. This suggests that short-term bullish momentum is weakening and a corrective move may be developing.
Potential Short Entry: 7,560
Confirmation: Sustained trading below the short-term uptrend / rejection from 7,560–7,600.
🎯 Downside Targets
T1: 7,150 — first major support / lower boundary of the rising structure
T2: 6,350 — deeper support and potential completion of a larger correction
A move toward 7,150 would represent a normal correction within the broader rising structure. A decisive breakdown below 7,150 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper move toward 6,350.
⚠️ Invalidation
The bearish setup weakens if price reclaims 7,600 and holds above it, particularly if the index breaks back above the upper resistance structure.
📊 Overall Bias
Short-term: BEARISH / CORRECTIVE
Medium-term: Still bullish unless the major rising-channel support is broken.
The important distinction here is that this chart does not yet prove a full trend reversal. At this stage, it is more accurately a short-term bearish correction setup within a larger bullish structure.
Key levels: 7,600 resistance → 7,150 T1 → 6,350 T2.
Educational technical analysis only; confirmation from price action/volume is preferable before treating the setup as active. Short 
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