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Australian banks break lower as RBA risk buildsThe technical picture for Australian financials has deteriorated noticeably, with the ASX 200 Financials index breaking beneath the rising trendline that has accompanied the bull move since late 2023. As things stand, the weekly candle is also shaping as a bearish engulfing pattern, while RSI (14) and MACD both favour short setups over long.
But I’m not ready to chase it lower just yet.
The thing that makes me cautious is what’s happened beneath 9,000 over the past year. There’s been a litany of failed downside breaks from bears, stretching down to the low set in early December at 8,867. That makes the weekly close this Friday really important, along with the price action that follows.
If we get a close beneath the rising trendline, especially if we see a sustained push beneath 8,867, that would strengthen the merits of shorts considerably. You could look to initiate positions beneath the level with a tight stop above for protection, targeting 8,460 initially, which acted as both support and resistance through late 2024 and early 2025.
Beneath that, the 200-week moving average sits just above 8,000, which is also a level the price has done ample work either side of over recent years. Those would be the two logical downside targets initially.
However, if we were to see another failure to sustain a push beneath 9,000, the option is still there to look at longs. The first target for bulls would be the 100-week moving average at 9,200, with 9,400 and the 50-week moving average at 9,451 alternative options after that, depending on desired risk-reward.
Fundamentally, it’s not hard to see why the sector is under pressure. The big four banks dominate the index, housing makes up a huge share of the assets sitting on their books, and the market is now firmly pricing the threat of a couple of RBA hikes before the end of the year.
The Aussie banks also continue to trade with extremely rich valuations, particularly from a global perspective. But I’ve learned on too many occasions in the past that fair valuations and Australian banks don’t always marry up particularly well when it comes to price action. So for me, the bearish bias needs the price action to confirm it.
That’s why the next couple of sessions matter. We get some major economic data out in the States that could heavily influence the local market. So I’d rather see the weekly candle actually close before considering going short.
Good luck!
DS 
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Elliott Wave Outlook: DAX in Larger Degree CorrectionThe short‑term Elliott Wave view in DAX shows the cycle from the March 23, 2026 low has ended in wave (1) at 26,614.27. This advance formed a clear impulse structure. With wave (1) complete, the Index has entered a larger degree correction in wave (2). The internal subdivision of this correction is unfolding as a double three WXY pattern. Wave W is progressing as a zigzag.
From the peak of wave (1), wave ((a)) declined to 25,727.93. A counter‑trend rally in wave ((b)) followed and ended at 26,167.93. The Index has since resumed lower in wave ((c)). This leg targets the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). The projected area lies between 24,737 and 25,283. Within this zone, wave W of the double three may complete.
Once wave W finishes, a rally in wave X should develop. This rally will correct the cycle from the August 28, 2026 high before the broader decline resumes. The corrective structure highlights the maturity of the cycle and sets expectations for further weakness after wave X. 
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**My View on NIFTY 50 — Daily Chart****1. Key Observation**
NIFTY is forming a lower-high structure below the major volume zone around **24,000–24,500**. The current blue-line structure looks similar to the previous corrective pattern, but a full repeat is not confirmed yet.
**2. My View**
Bias remains bearish while NIFTY stays below the recent swing-high zone. However, I would not treat **20,000** as confirmed immediately. First, NIFTY needs to break the **22,000–22,200** support zone with strong selling confirmation.
**3. Invalidation**
The bearish study becomes weak if NIFTY reclaims **24,800–25,000** and sustains above it with volume.
**4. Risk-Reward**
The downside setup offers favorable risk-reward if short entries come near resistance or after confirmed breakdown, with risk defined above the recent swing high.
**5. Target Point / Range**
TG1: **22,000–22,200**
TG2: **20,600–20,000**
Extended support: **18,778**
**6. Why It’s Good for Short**
Lower highs are forming, recovery attempts are struggling near the high-volume resistance zone, and a break below 22K can open the path for a larger correction.
**7. Time Period**
This is a **medium-term bearish view** for the next few months.
Key sequence: **23.4K → 22K → confirmation → 20.6K / 20K**
#NIFTY #NIFTY50 #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #BearishSetup #MarketCorrection #SwingTrading #OptionsTrading #IndianStockMarket
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Bearish momentum to continue?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse toward the 1st support, which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 99.18
1st Support: 98.59
1st Resistance: 99.44
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. Short 
Heading towards 50% Fib resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising toward the pivot, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse toward the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.18
1st Support: 98.59
1st Resistance: 99.44
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. Short 
Bullish bounce in play?UK100 has bounced off the pivot, which is a pullback support and could potentially rise toward the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 10,662.94
1st Support: 10,454.85
1st Resistance: 10.937.94
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party 
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Smart Trailing Stop: Protect Profits, Let Winners RunA trailing stop should not simply follow price candle after candle.
If it is too aggressive, it can close a good position during a normal market pullback.
If it is too slow, a large part of the unrealized profit can be given back.
The goal of a smart trailing stop is therefore to find the right balance: progressively reduce risk while still giving the market enough room to continue.
In this F40 M15 example, the setup is bearish.
The trade starts with a defined entry and an initial structural Stop Loss. As long as price has not moved far enough in our favor, the SL remains unchanged. There is no reason to protect a trade too early before the market has actually confirmed the move.
Once price reaches the first trigger level, dynamic trade management begins.
The logic is simple:
1. Price reaches a trigger level.
The trade has progressed far enough to justify additional protection.
2. The Stop Loss moves to a new protection level.
The stop does not simply follow price closely. Enough room is deliberately left for normal market fluctuations.
3. If the trend continues, another trigger level is reached.
The SL is then moved again to the next protection step.
4. This process continues for as long as the trend keeps extending.
These are the different yellow steps shown on the chart.
After TP1, part of the result is already secured. The runner can then remain exposed to the trend while the stop progressively protects more and more of the open profit.
The orange dotted level represents the next trailing trigger. If price continues lower and reaches this area, the management logic allows the SL to move again to the next protection level.
The objective is therefore not to predict exactly where the trend will end.
Instead, the idea is to build a management process where:
the market decides how far the move can go, while risk is progressively reduced.
This becomes particularly useful when a trade develops into a much larger move than originally expected. Instead of closing everything automatically at 2R or 3R, the runner can remain in the market while the trend continues to justify holding the position.
Note: the setup and levels shown here come from a real prop-firm trade triggered by my own indicator. Due to a technical issue unrelated to the setup itself, the live position was manually closed before the full move was completed. The chart therefore illustrates how the trailing-stop logic would have continued to manage the position step by step.
A good trailing stop is not designed to exit at the exact bottom of a short trade or the exact top of a long trade.
Its real purpose is to answer one question:
How can we protect more and more of the trade without preventing an exceptional move from developing?
That is the philosophy behind this step-based trailing management. 
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