Short
FTSE 100: Momentum Weakens as Key Support Comes Under PressureThe FTSE 100 has failed at the April high near 10,725, and momentum is beginning to deteriorate.
The RSI has slipped below 50, while both the MACD and DMI are turning increasingly negative, suggesting upside momentum is fading.
The market is currently testing the 55-day moving average around 10,410. A sustained break below this level would expose the 200-day moving average near 10,156.
The longer-term picture remains constructive—for now. The 200-day moving average has underpinned the bull trend for over a year and sits close to the 55-week moving average at 9,903, creating an important support zone.
However, the key level to watch is the March reaction low at 9,670. A weekly close below this level would break the pattern of higher highs and higher lows that defines the current uptrend and would significantly increase the risk that a major top is forming.
At present, the FTSE 100 remains range-bound, but the technical evidence suggests the balance of risk is beginning to shift to the downside.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Short
Long
Another Test of 7555 AheadHello, traders!🌴
In my previous post, I specifically highlighted the less obvious 7555 level. It has now proven to be a very important area❗️❗️❗️, and my upcoming analysis will continue to be based on how price reacts around it.
As I mentioned in the last update:
“I consider this level to be the key factor in determining the next move. If SPX breaks above 7555 and manages to hold that level, clearing the all-time high at 7625 should not be a major challenge. In that case, the path toward the next target at 7950 opens up. However, if price gets rejected at 7555 once again or forms another false breakout, there's a high probability we'll see a move back toward the 7450-7500 area, where the 100 EMA and 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe are currently located.”
So far, this 🐻 scenario has played out exactly as expected. We saw a rejection from 7555 followed by a pullback to 7500 ✅
The fact that the pullback is currently finding support at the 4H EMA 100 while also holding above the 1H EMA 100 and EMA 200 is clearly a bullish sign🛡️🛡️🛡️ For that reason, I expect another attempt to break through 7555 in the near future.
🐻🪓The bearish scenario remains unchanged. If those moving averages are broken with strong momentum, the next key support levels become:
Support levels:
• 7300 — Local horizontal support
• 7200 — Area of the 1D EMA 100
• 7000 — Previous all-time high
Peace, everyone🌄
⚠️ Disclaimer:
All information shared on this channel is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The author is not responsible for your trading decisions. Always manage your risk and make your own independent decisions. Long 
Germany DAX 40 ($DE40) 1H: Volatility CompressionGermany DAX 40 ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) 1H: Volatility Compression Inside Major Rectangle Range – Awaiting Institutional Breakout Trigger
### 🇩🇪 Germany DAX 40 Index ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) 1H Technical Brief (Ref: DE40_2026-07-14_08-35-55.png)
We are deploying a tactical short-term market study on the Germany DAX 40 ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) on the 1-Hour (1H) time matrix. The European benchmark has locked into a highly structured **Rectangle Consolidation Range**, compressing aggregate volume between multi-day liquidity parameters.
The index displays quiet intraday balance today, trading up **+0.15% at 24,975.00**, anchored dead-center within this distribution block.
---
### 🔍 The Range Architecture:
Our framework isolates two major structural boundaries governing current order flow:
1. **The 25,200 Supply Ceiling:** The upper boundary of the rectangle block (horizontal red line sitting at **25,153.69**) presents a massive technical wall for the bulls. This structural ceiling heavily confluences with the dynamic **200-period EMA (purple line at 25,152.03)**. Buyers have consistently faced aggressive institutional distribution at this boundary.
2. **The 24,770 Demand Floor:** Conversely, the lower boundary of the range (horizontal red line sitting at **24,814.69**) remains heavily defended. This support corridor is reinforced by a major long-term **Ascending Support Trendline (the red diagonal LTA)**, which has systematically absorbed sell-side flush sequences.
*The flat, horizontal alignment of our short-term **72-period SMA ribbons (orange line sitting at 25,038.35)** further mathematically validates this equilibrium phase.*
---
### 📊 Tactical Playbook: Patience and Boundary Confirmation
As long as the index remains trapped within this rectangle, localized price action remains highly random. Our systematic playbook advises standing aside and waiting for a clean institutional breakout sequence:
* **Bullish Breakout Scenario:** Requires a decisive 1H/4H candle close above **25,200** and the 200-EMA. Acceptance above this zone invalidates the range sellers and triggers a momentum squeeze toward the **25,450+** premium targets.
* **Bearish Breakdown Scenario:** A confirmed breach below the **24,770** baseline and the diagonal red LTA will signal an immediate breakdown of structural support, opening the door for an aggressive markdown leg into discount arrays below **24,550**.
### 📈 Trading Plan Summary:
* **Immediate Bias:** Strictly Neutral (Congestion Phase)
* **Overhead Resistance:** 25,150 – 25,200 (Range Top & 200-EMA Confluence)
* **Downside Support:** 24,770 – 24,815 (Range Bottom & Ascending LTA)
---
📊 **ChartPro Data**
*European Equity Architecture, Volume Compression Frameworks & Systematic Breakout Sourcing.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This technical study represents a personal trading model and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Renew blockade of Strait of Hormuz support for the US dollar.Renewed Middle East tensions have reignited inflation concerns as oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz halts again. Meanwhile, the latest US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stockpile fell to its lowest level since 1984, which may pressure the US to resolve the conflicts sooner.
Meanwhile, Fed’s Waller noted that the Fed should raise interest rates soon this month if inflation remains persistent. The swap market indicates that the odds of a rate hike this month have surged to 50%. However, today's CPI release may ease due to the recent decline in oil prices, but the market focuses more on the Core CPI figure, which gauges stable inflation factors. A stronger-than-expected Core CPI may further bolster rate hike expectations and provide additional support for the US dollar index.
Technically, the US dollar index broke above 101.2 and remains above this level with expanding EMAs, signaling potential further upside.
If the US dollar index breaches above 101.40, the price may advance to find resistance at 101.70.
Conversely, falling below 101.2 may prompt a decline toward the next support at 100.60.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness 
Long
DAX 40: 25,000 Cracks Overnight - Sellers Gathering at 24,840While Europe slept, the world got louder. Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, Washington answered with strikes, oil ripped 9% higher - and the DAX quietly gave back 25,000 in the overnight session. This morning's cash open delivered the verdict: no reclaim. Price is trading in the 24,900s and sellers are gathering at the last floor standing.
ONE STRAIT, ONE FLOOR
Roughly 20% of the world's oil moves through Hormuz - that is why a closed strait shows up in Frankfurt within hours. 25,000 survived four tests last week; the fifth came at 2 AM with nobody at the desk, and the open confirmed it: the round number is now the ceiling. Below sits 24,840, last Wednesday's drop low - the make-or-break. Above, 25,200 (the July 2 breakout shelf) is still the level that flips this structure bullish.
THE TRADE
Short on a 1H close below 24,840, stop above 25,000, target 24,636. Between 24,840 and 25,000 I do nothing - that pocket is where stops get eaten. If the market reclaims 25,000 and holds it, I stand aside. No trade is also a position.
WHERE I'M WRONG
Back above 25,200 and the top-out call is dead. No shame in that.
A BREAK AT 2 AM IS A CLAIM - DAYLIGHT IS THE VERDICT
Thin overnight liquidity breaks levels that the open sometimes takes straight back. That is why this idea waited for the cash open: the first thing Frankfurt did was sell the bounce. When fresh sellers show up in daylight to defend an overnight break, the break is real. This zooms into the floor from my daily map, "DAX: Back Above 25,000 After a 1,060-Point Dive". ()
I will update this idea as the levels get tested. 
Short
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bull Run Continues | 102.500 Target📊 DXY "U.S. DOLLAR INDEX" — Index CFD Market Trade Opportunity Guide (Day/Swing Trade)💹
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — Thief OG's, 👑
The vault doors are open again! 🔓 The Greenback is flexing its muscle and the Thief Trader radar has locked onto DXY. Let's plan this heist with precision. 🎯
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📈 PLAN: BULLISH SETUP
🗝️ Vault Zone (Entry):
You can enter the market at any price level — flexible entry, thief style. No rush, no FOMO. 🥷🎯
Getaway Points (Targets):
Heads up Thief OG's — a Police Force Zone (strong resistance) sits ahead, layered with overbought conditions + a potential trap/reversal risk. Escape with profits before the sirens go off! 🚨
🏦 Main Getaway Target: @ 102.500
⚡ Day Trader Getaway 1: @ 101.500
⚡ Day Trader Getaway 2: @ 102.000
🚔 Thief SL (Stop Loss):
@ 99.500
📝 Note: I'am not recommending you set only my TP/SL blindly — that's your own call, Thief OG's. Make money, then take money, at your own risk. 💰
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH ($-denominated)
💶 EUR/USD ($1.1360 zone): Inverse correlation — EUR carries the heaviest DXY basket weight (~57.6%). A bullish DXY heist typically drags Fiber lower.
💷 GBP/USD ($1.3350 zone): Inverse correlation — Cable tends to slide when the Dollar squad flexes strength.
💴 USD/JPY (¥162.00 zone): Positive correlation — Dollar strength + energy-driven yield spreads keep this pair climbing.
🇨🇭 USD/CHF ($0.8000+ zone): Positive correlation — Swissy often tracks DXY's directional footprints closely.
🥇 XAU/USD ($4,000 zone): Inverse correlation — Gold is the getaway rival; when Dollar robs the market, Gold usually pays the price.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO INTEL
🏛️ Fed funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% since the June FOMC meeting — first policy meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
📊 June CPI data is due for release today, following May's inflation print at a three-year high, driven largely by energy costs.
🗣️ Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify before Congress this week, alongside several other Fed officials — markets will parse every word for rate-path clues.
⚔️ Safe-haven flows remain active as Middle East tensions (US-Iran, Strait of Hormuz) continue to influence oil prices and broader risk sentiment.
📉 Rate-hike odds for the July 28–29 FOMC meeting remain a live debate among market participants, with expectations shifting session to session based on incoming data.(This is a neutral snapshot of what the market is actually pricing — not shaped to fit the trade direction above.)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 UPCOMING HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS (London Time 🇬🇧)
🔸 US CPI (June) — Today, 13:30 London Time
🔸 Fed Chair Warsh Congressional Testimony — This week, ~15:00 London Time
🔸 FOMC Interest Rate Decision — 29 Jul, 19:00 London Time
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Thief Trader's Wisdom:
"A real thief doesn't chase the market — he waits in the shadows for the market to walk into the trap." 🌙
"Discipline is the mask that hides fear. Wear it every trade." 🎭 NAS100 H1 | Bullish Recovery AheadOn the 1-hour timeframe, NAS100 has shown a strong bullish reaction after sweeping liquidity from the 28,650–28,700 Sell-Side Liquidity zone. The sharp rejection from this area confirms that institutional buyers stepped into the market, leading to a Market Structure Shift (MSS) and signaling that bearish momentum has weakened significantly.
Price has successfully reclaimed the broken descending trendline and is now trading above a series of higher lows, indicating that buyers are gradually taking control of the short-term market structure. The recent impulsive rally suggests that the market is attempting to retrace toward premium pricing, with the next objective being the nearby Order Block around 29,450–29,500.
This Order Block is an important decision point. If buyers maintain momentum and secure a confirmed breakout above this level, the next upside target becomes the Strong Resistance & Higher-Timeframe Order Block (29,850–29,950). This zone previously triggered a significant bearish reaction and is expected to attract fresh selling interest once price revisits it.
A successful breakout above the major supply zone would expose the psychological 30,000 resistance, opening the path toward the higher-timeframe Strong Order Block near 30,250–30,350, where buy-side liquidity is likely resting. However, if price fails to hold above the current Order Block, a corrective pullback toward the 29,050–29,100 Propulsion Order Block & Support Zone remains a healthy possibility before buyers attempt another continuation move.
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, the market has completed a sell-side liquidity sweep, confirmed multiple bullish Market Structure Shifts (MSS), and transitioned into a bullish retracement phase. The overall structure favors buyers as long as price continues respecting higher lows and remains above the reclaimed support zones.
Key Levels to Watch
🟢 Support Zone: 29,050–29,100
📈 Current Order Block: 29,450–29,500
🟠 Strong Resistance & HTF Order Block: 29,850–29,950
🎯 Psychological Resistance: 30,000
🚀 Major HTF Order Block: 30,250–30,350
Overall Bias
📈 H1 Bias: Bullish. The recent liquidity sweep, bullish MSS, and recovery above the descending trendline indicate increasing buying strength. A sustained breakout above 29,500 would increase the probability of a continuation toward 29,900, followed by the 30,000–30,300 higher-timeframe supply zone.
TITLE THORA SHORT LIKHO Short 
Long
NIFTY Weekly Expiry Outlook -14 JulyWeak global market sentiment suggests that Nifty could open with a gap-down.
Bullish Setup
If Nifty reclaims 24,100 and sustains above this level on a 15-minute closing basis, it may rally towards 24,160–24,180. A strong breakout above this zone could extend the move to 24,220 and above.
Bearish Setup
If Nifty fails to hold the 24,020–24,000 support zone, it may decline towards 23,940–23,900. A decisive break below 23,900 could lead to further downside.
My View
With today being weekly expiry, volatility is expected to remain high throughout the session. While Gift Nifty points to a weak opening, the first hour is likely to determine the day's trend. I will wait for confirmation instead of predicting the direction, as expiry sessions often witness sharp reversals and short-covering rallies.
Trading Suggestion
Avoid taking trades immediately
after the opening bell. Let the first 15–20 minutes pass and wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before entering. Trade with strict stop-losses, avoid chasing fast moves, and consider booking profits quickly, as option premiums can change rapidly on expiry day.
Trade the trend, not your prediction. Capital protection comes first.
Education purpose only and not financial advice. S&P 500 & GOLD CORRELATIONDON'T BE FOOLED BY THE S&P 500! Here's the chart I shared with my students on our 'Q3 Market Breakdown' report. Let's go into a bit more depth regarding it & how the S&P 500 could front-run the big move on Gold for the next few months.
From my 'Elliott Wave Theory' strategy point of view, the S&P 500 is possibly due one more ATH (All-Time-High) to complete Wave V (Major Wave 5). So far we've seen the Major Wave 3 & 4 complete, with the final bullish cycle in progress.
Wave 5 so far has created - Wave I, II, III & IV with final bullish leg Wave V now in progress. Check chart annotations🔺 As this bullish leg moves higher, it is likely to drag Gold higher with it towards $4,800 - $5,040📈
Once the S&P 500 completes this bullish cycle & starts to decline, we could witness a 27% crash. Institutional investors will panic from this crash & needs fund to keep their losing positions from being liquidated. This'll lead to them selling off their Gold, which should drag Gold to its next major target of $3,800 or even $2,800👀 Short 
NAS100: Double Top Confirmed — Can Bears Force a Flush?Here is a structured breakdown matching your selected title that you can copy and paste directly into your TradingView description box:
Overview
Following an aggressive multi-day rally, the NAS100 put in a local top just below the 29,900 mark. The index has now locked in a clean Double Top reversal pattern on the 4-hour timeframe.
The immediate breakdown past structural support has shifted control firmly to the sellers, opening up a clear path toward lower liquidity targets as momentum accelerates downward.
Key Technical Points
The Pattern Confirmation: The breakdown below the 29,321.8 ENTRY level officially validates the Double Top formation. This level has now successfully flipped from support to short-term resistance.
Momentum Breakdown: The Machine Learning RSI (Zeiierman) indicator tracked a stark lower high during the second peak, confirming a major shift in underlying momentum. The indicator line continues to slope sharply downward with no immediate signs of a bullish divergence.
Risk/Reward Parameters:
Invalidation / Stop Loss (SL): 29,431.1 (positioned safely above the recent localized structure breakdown)
Trading Scenarios to Watch
🐻 Bearish Case (Targeting Downside Liquidity): As long as price action remains capped underneath the broken entry line at 29,321.8, sellers remain completely in control. The immediate objective is a clean flush down to TP1 at 29,148.8 (Risk-to-Reward: 2), followed by a deeper extension toward TP2 at 28,975.8 (Risk-to-Reward: 4).
🐂 Bullish Invalidation: For this short setup to fail, the bulls must force an aggressive, high-volume reclaim of the 29,321.8 pivot line to trap the breakout bears and shift structure back into a sideways consolidation.
Are you shorting this Nasdaq breakdown to the targets, or expecting a fakeout bounce? Let me know your bias below! 
Short
