S&P 500: Buyers Keep Stepping In — Every Dip Still Gets BoughtBull Market Remains Firmly Intact
The S&P 500 continues to demonstrate the strength of its secular bull market, with buyers repeatedly stepping in on short and medium-term pullbacks. August’s push to a new all-time high at 7,821.6 only reinforced that broader bullish structure.
Former Resistance Becomes Support
The previous resistance zone around 7,600 is now being tested from above. This also lines up closely with the 0.382 Fib at 7,622.2, creating an important area of confluence beneath price.
EMAs Continue to Favour the Bulls
The 21/8-week EMAs remain bullishly crossed, with both averages continuing to slope higher. Price also remains comfortably above them, keeping the underlying trend firmly in the bulls’ favour.
Consolidation Lacks Selling Pressure
Volume has steadily decreased as price consolidates above the 7,600 area, suggesting little conviction from sellers so far. RSI remains comfortably above 50, while StochRSI is mid-ranging, leaving momentum relatively neutral in the short term.
In Summary
The S&P 500 continues to show why fighting this secular bull market has proved so difficult, with buyers repeatedly stepping in on every meaningful pullback. Price is now consolidating around 7,600, where former resistance and the 0.382 Fib provide strong technical confluence. With the 21/8-week EMAs still bullishly crossed and selling pressure remaining subdued, the broader picture continues to favour the upside while buyers keep defending these dips. S&P 500 : Market Prediction, Bull Flag & Key Resistance LevelsRecord highs, a tightening bull flag, and an RSI that refuses to give up the 60 level - this week's S&P 500 chart is worth a close look.
CMP: 7,718.61 (as on week closed 04 September 2026)
Price is consolidating just below its recent highs after a sharp advance, and the structure looks like a bull flag continuation pattern taking shape. The prior key resistance at 7,620.90 was tested and held as support this past week, turning it into a Change-of-Polarity zone - a constructive sign for the broader uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows remain intact across the weekly timeframe.
Technical Indicators
RSI: Currently at 64.23, having repeatedly retested and held above the 60 level. That zone is acting as a momentum support - staying above it keeps the bullish structure favored, while a slip back under 60 would be an early signal of fading momentum.
Bollinger Bands: Price is trading comfortably above the Mid Bollinger Band at 7,499.60, which sits as dynamic support well beneath current levels.
Fibonacci Analysis: The 1.618 extension at 7,857.62 lines up with the major resistance zone above current price, while the retracement levels between 7,237.85 and 7,474.57 remain well beneath the market, marking the broader uptrend's structural floor.
Trend Channel: Higher highs and higher lows continue to reinforce the broader uptrend, with the recent consolidation shaping into a bull flag within a rising channel.
Support:
7,674.36 - Immediate support
7,620.90 - Key support
7,580.05 - Major support
Resistance:
7,757.63 - Immediate resistance
7,816.70 - Key resistance / recent weekly high
7,857.62 - Major resistance (Fibonacci 1.618)
Does the bull flag resolve higher this week, or do we see one more retest of the 7,620.90 zone first?
SPX, S&P500, StockMarket, TechnicalAnalysis, ChartAnalysis, BullFlag, RSI
Disclaimer: This analysis is educational technical chart analysis provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or any recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. All analysis is based on publicly available market data and is subject to change. Users are solely responsible for their own investment and trading decisions. 
Short
NASDAQ Internet vs A.I. Bubble. Is this time different?Nasdaq (NDX) has been practically consolidating under relative pressure for the past 3 months. The narrative in recent years has been that the market is on the A.I. Boom and with good reason. We fully agree on this and this technology is here to (already) change our lives. We've done many studies on stock market eras and Cycles but mostly on S&P500 and Dow, even though technology Bull Cycles mostly benefit the Nasdaq. So this time, we compare the 90s Internet Bubble to the current A.I. Bubble.
Basically, the Internet Bubble started a little earlier, after the October 1987 Black Monday crash. This was a major, but much needed, market reset after 10 years of the P.C. Boom. To be more precise, Black Monday helped mark the beginning of the financial-policy regime that later supported the Internet boom. Similarly, the A.I. Bubble started after the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom, a much needed reset after a little more than 10 years of the technological boom of Smartphones and E-commerce. We have analyzed this and more concepts extensively on the S&P500 post below, it is worth checking it out:
Now, back to Nasdaq. As you can see, if the current A.I. Bubble is similar to the Internet's, then we are still on the early side of it. More specifically, within the 0.236 - 0.382 Time Fibonacci levels. That was when the Internet Bubble was coming off a 1M MA50 (red trend-line) rebound and already made a minor pull-back towards its 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In relative terms, we had that same pull-back early this year when the U.S. - Iran War broke out but the price reversed before touching the 1W MA100.
What followed after a new rally was another 1W MA100 test (this time hit). Basically up until the March 2000 Internet Cycle Top, the 1W MA100 was acting as the utmost Support and every pull-back towards (and even better on it) was a Buy opportunity. So for 9 years it never broke (only marginally in June 1994). Check also the 1M RSI, which has been bouncing off its overbought Resistance Zone like in 1992.
As a result, we expect this massive expansion Cycle fueled by the A.I. Boom to extend and give massive gains of up to +3783% from the 2022 bottom (as insane it may seem now), as those wear the total Nasdaq gains from the 1987 bottom to the March 2000 Top. This could take Nasdaq to 400000 (again insane as it may sound).
What's perhaps more important than that, is the Bear Cycle that should technically follow after the A.I. Bubble pops, can decline as low as the 1M MA300 (blue dashed trend-line), which is where both 2002 and 2008 made a bottom (also shown on the S&P500 study above).
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 The Economy Looks Strong. So Why Are Stocks Worried?Good news for workers is bad news for asset managers. Go figure?
The US economy delivered the kind of jobs report ECONOMICS:USNFP politicians usually frame and hang on the wall.
Employers added 162,000 jobs in August , nearly triple the 56,000 economists expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Even better, previous months were revised higher and more people entered the labor force.
Wall Street responded by selling stocks. The S&P 500 SPCFD:SPX fell 0.4% Friday, the Dow TVC:DJI lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC slipped 0.3%. Treasury yields jumped and the dollar TVC:DXY strengthened.
Welcome to one of markets' favorite paradoxes: sometimes a strong economy is precisely what investors don't want to see.
🏦 The Fed Changes the Equation
The missing piece is interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR . The Federal Reserve is struggling to return inflation to its 2% target, and Chair Kevin Warsh recently warned policymakers still have "work to do" unless they become confident inflation is cooling sufficiently.
A resilient labor market gives the Fed more freedom to raise rates because employment appears strong enough to absorb tighter monetary policy.
Friday's report, in that sense, changed expectations almost immediately. Traders briefly pushed the probability of a September rate hike to around 65%, from roughly 55% before payrolls landed.
📈 Why Stocks Care About Bond Yields
Higher expected interest rates quickly spill into the Treasury market . The policy-sensitive two-year yield jumped to as high as 4.42%, while the 10-year yield briefly topped 4.81% after the report. The Yield Curves tool is always handy to keep track of those market-shaking moves.
Higher yields increase borrowing costs for companies and reduce the present value of future corporate profits.
That last point hits growth stocks particularly hard. Much of their valuation depends on earnings expected years into the future. When rates rise, investors apply a larger discount rate, essentially marking those future dollars down when calculating what they're worth today.
The economy can therefore improve while the price investors are willing to pay for its companies falls.
🔥 Inflation Makes This Cycle Different
Naturally, strong employment and solid economic growth are welcome news. The complication today is that inflation remains uncomfortable while energy prices are adding another headache.
Brent crude finished last week up 7.6%, while US crude gained 10%, as renewed US-Iran fighting tightened energy markets.
Meanwhile, US services activity accelerated in August and new orders reached their strongest level in three and a half years. That's encouraging for growth, but accompanying input-price pressures give the Fed another reason to remain cautious.
Strong demand + strong employment + expensive energy is a combination central bankers tend to examine rather carefully.
🧊 Would Weak Data Be Better?
Here's where things get even stranger. A moderately weaker economy could help stocks if it convinces traders that another rate increase is unnecessary. Treasury yields could fall, borrowing conditions could ease and investors might become willing to pay higher valuations for equities.
There is, however, a line. If economic data deteriorates far enough (reminder to keep an eye on the Economic Calendar ), the conversation shifts from "Great, the Fed can stop hiking" to "Wait, are corporate earnings about to fall? Is it all over?"
Markets often want something close to goldilocks: enough growth to keep profits expanding, without so much demand that inflation forces central banks to tighten further.
👀 CPI Gets the Next Word
That makes this week's inflation numbers considerably more interesting.
Producer prices ECONOMICS:USPPI arrive Thursday, followed by CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI on Friday, with economists expecting annual core inflation to ease slightly to around 2.4% from 2.5%. The Fed then meets September 15-16 .
A cool inflation print could give policymakers room to look past Friday's employment strength. Another hot reading would combine resilient jobs with persistent inflation and strengthen the argument for tighter policy.
Off to you : How are you preparing for inflation data down the week? And what’s your outlook on interest rates? Share in the comments! 
Long
EURO STOXX 50: Bullish Structure Meets Major Resistance🌍 EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E / EU50) — INDEX CFD
🔫 "The Eurozone Blue-Chip Vault Heist" — Day/Swing Trade Setup
📅 Date: Monday, 07 September 2026 | London Time (BST)
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Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — Thief OG's
Welcome back to another high-precision operation run by The Market Heist Master. Today's target is the Euro STOXX 50 Index CFD — Europe's premier blue-chip battleground, housing 50 of the Eurozone's most powerful corporate titans. This is not your average playground. This is where institutions move billions, and where smart thieves know exactly where the vaults are hidden. Strap in, OG's. We're going in.
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📊 LIVE MARKET SNAPSHOT — VERIFIED DATA
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🔹 Asset: EURO STOXX 50 Index CFD (Ticker: EU50 / SX5E / STOXX50E)
🔹 Live Price (07 Sep 2026, BST): ~6,380 — 6,393 (CFD data; verify with your broker)
🔹 Session Open: 6,377 — 6,381
🔹 Intraday Range: 6,363 — 6,409
🔹 52-Week Range: 5,301 — 6,577
🔹 52-Week High: 6,577.20 (hit 11 Aug 2026)
🔹 52-Week Low: 5,301 (Sep 2025)
🔹 1-Month Change: -2.38%
🔹 1-Year Change: +18.97%
🔹 Year-to-Date Change: +9.27%
⚠️ CFD prices vary by broker/platform. Always confirm your live feed before executing any trade. The above data is sourced from OTC/CFD reference markets and is for analytical reference only.
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🎯 MY MARKET BIAS — THE HEIST PLAN
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📈 Bias: BULLISH (Day Trade / Swing Trade)
💰 Direction: Long / Buy-Side
🔓 ENTRY — THE VAULT DOOR IS OPEN:
You can enter the market at ANY level using:
• Limit orders at your preferred price zone
• Market orders on confirmation of bullish momentum
• Breakout entries above recent session highs
• Pullback entries toward intraday support clusters
There is no single "perfect" entry. The Thief Trader style is flexible — we adapt to price, not chase it.
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💸 GETAWAY TARGETS — TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN
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🥇 Target 1 (Scalpers & Day Traders): 6,480
🏆 Main / Final Target (Swing Traders): 6,550
🚨 CRITICAL ZONE ALERT — POLICE FORCE AHEAD:
The 6,550 — 6,577 region is a HIGH-ALERT DANGER ZONE for bulls. This area is packed with institutional resistance, overbought conditions, and historical price rejection. There is a significant probability of a trap and reversal setting up near the 52-week high cluster.
📢 Dear Ladies & Gentleman — Thief OG's: I am not recommending you to hold all the way to the main target. That choice belongs to YOU. Make money, then TAKE money — at your own risk and your own judgment. TP levels are reference points only, not mandatory exits. Manage your own trade like a professional thief — know when to escape.
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🛑 THIEF SL — THE ESCAPE HATCH
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🔴 Thief SL Reference: 6,300
Placed beyond the nearest significant structural demand zone and key technical floor. This gives the trade breathing room while containing downside risk exposure.
📢 Dear Ladies & Gentleman — Thief OG's: I am not recommending you to use only this SL level. That choice also belongs to YOU. Adjust SL according to your own risk tolerance, lot size, account size, and swing structure. Make money, then take money — at your own risk.
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📐 MY ANALYSIS — TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN
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The Euro STOXX 50 has delivered an impressive ~19% rally over the past 12 months, printing a fresh 52-week high at 6,577 in mid-August 2026. Since that peak, price has pulled back approximately 2.38% over the past month, currently consolidating in the 6,363 — 6,410 zone — a technically relevant demand pocket.
Key observations from my analysis:
📍 The August high at 6,577 acts as the primary resistance ceiling — the "police barricade." A break and hold above this level opens significant upside but requires strong momentum and volume confirmation.
📍 The 6,363 — 6,400 zone represents a mid-term consolidation band and short-term demand. Price is currently hovering in this area.
📍 The broader trend structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 6,300 on a closing basis.
📍 Intraday momentum on 07 Sep 2026 BST is subdued and slightly cautious, with the index opening just above 6,377 and trading in a narrow 6,363 — 6,409 range.
📍 The 6,480 level represents the first meaningful overhead resistance within the current swing range — a logical first getaway point.
📍 The 6,550 zone converges with overbought RSI territory and the upper boundary of the recent distribution zone — a high-probability reversal and/or trap area.
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🔭 POSSIBLE SCENARIO — HOW THE HEIST COULD UNFOLD
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📌 Scenario A — Bullish Continuation:
Price holds above 6,363 — 6,377 support, builds momentum through the 6,410 — 6,430 zone, and drives toward 6,480 first getaway point. A clean break above 6,480 with volume could extend the move toward the 6,550 main target area.
📌 Scenario B — Consolidation Before Move:
Price remains range-bound between 6,363 and 6,420 during the early London session, digesting geopolitical and rate uncertainty, before selecting a directional break. Day traders may find scalping opportunities within this range.
📌 Scenario C — Bearish Risk / Invalidation:
A decisive daily close below 6,300 invalidates the bullish case and signals potential deeper retracement toward 6,200 — 6,150 support zones. In this case, exit long positions per your own risk management protocol.
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👀 AREAS I AM WATCHING — CRITICAL PRICE LEVELS
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🔷 6,300 — Thief SL / Structural Demand Floor
🔷 6,363 — Today's Session Low / Intraday Support
🔷 6,377 — Today's Opening Reference Level
🔷 6,410 — Intraday High / Short-term Supply
🔷 6,430 — Mid-range resistance cluster
🔷 6,480 — Target 1 / First Getaway Point
🔷 6,550 — Main Target / Final Getaway
🔷 6,577 — 52-Week High / Institutional Resistance Wall (Police Barricade)
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📚 EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWN — WHAT IS THE EURO STOXX 50?
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The EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E) is the Eurozone's flagship blue-chip equity index. It tracks the performance of 50 of the largest and most liquid companies across 8 Eurozone member nations — including Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain.
Key educational points every OG should know:
🎓 The index is maintained by STOXX Ltd, owned by Deutsche Börse Group, and rebalanced quarterly with an annual composition review each September.
🎓 The index is capitalisation-weighted with a maximum 10% weight per constituent — keeping it diversified across supersectors including Financials, Technology, Industrials, Energy, and Healthcare.
🎓 The EURO STOXX 50 is one of the most liquid equity indices in the world. Futures and options on this index, traded on Eurex (FESX), rank among the highest-volume derivative instruments in Europe.
🎓 Major index constituents include names like ASML, TotalEnergies, LVMH, SAP, Siemens, BNP Paribas, Santander, Airbus, Infineon, and UniCredit — all sector heavyweights.
🎓 When trading the EU50/STOXX50 CFD, you are getting exposure to the combined performance of Eurozone's biggest corporate engines. Macro events in Europe — ECB rate decisions, GDP data, energy prices, geopolitical developments — directly drive this index.
🎓 The Thief Trader principle here: this is a macro-sensitive, institutionally-dominated instrument. Be aware of event risk, especially around ECB meeting weeks. Trade size accordingly.
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🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH — WITH USD PRICES
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These instruments share a strong directional and/or macro correlation with the EURO STOXX 50. Monitor them alongside your EU50 position for confirmation and divergence signals.
📌 GER40 / DAX 40 (Germany 40 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~26,026 — 26,046 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: STRONG POSITIVE — Germany's DAX 40 is the most heavily weighted contributor nation within the Eurozone blue-chip complex. When the DAX trends, the STOXX 50 typically follows. DAX dropped 0.08% — 0.14% today, reflecting the same cautious tone as EU50. If DAX recovers intraday, expect EU50 to respond in kind. Watch the 26,000 level as structural support.
📌 CAC 40 (France 40 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~8,279 — 8,284 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: STRONG POSITIVE — France is the second-largest contributor to the EURO STOXX 50 by weighting, hosting luxury, energy, and banking giants like LVMH, TotalEnergies, and BNP Paribas. CAC 40 moved -0.06% to -0.09% today. A divergence where CAC gains while DAX falls — or vice versa — can signal sector rotation rather than a broad index move. Track both.
📌 FTSE 100 (UK 100 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~10,810 — 10,831 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: MODERATE POSITIVE — The FTSE 100 is a pan-European risk-appetite barometer. While the UK is not part of the Eurozone, FTSE sentiment echoes across European equity markets, particularly during risk-off or risk-on macro shifts. FTSE 100 opened -0.12% to -0.2% lower today, reflecting the same cautious London session tone. If FTSE stabilises or recovers, it provides a supportive backdrop for the EU50.
📌 S&P 500 (US500 / SPX500 Index CFD)
💵 Live Price: ~7,718 — 7,747 points (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: MODERATE-STRONG POSITIVE — The S&P 500 sets the global risk-appetite tone during the US session. A strong Wall Street close typically carries over into European morning sentiment. The S&P 500 dropped -0.38% on Friday (05 Sep 2026) following the hot US payroll print, which pressured risk assets globally including European equities. Watch for US futures direction during London afternoon hours — it directly influences EU50 late-session price action.
📌 EUR/USD (The Fiber)
💵 Live Rate: ~1.1614 — 1.1626 (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: COMPLEX / INVERSE-TO-MIXED — A stronger EUR typically signals broad Eurozone confidence and can support European equities. However, an excessively strong EUR raises export competitiveness concerns for STOXX 50 multinationals. Today EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.16 handle, trading in a narrow range of 1.1585 — 1.1633. The EUR came under pressure after the stronger US payroll data revived Fed rate hike expectations. A EUR/USD hold above 1.1585 supports the neutral-to-bullish Eurozone risk narrative.
📌 Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD / BCOUSD)
💵 Live Price: ~$96.97 — $97.00 per barrel (07 Sep 2026)
🔗 Correlation: DUAL IMPACT — Higher oil prices benefit energy majors within the STOXX 50 (TotalEnergies, ENI, Repsol), which can push the index higher. However, persistently elevated oil also drives inflation, raising ECB rate hike pressure, which is a headwind for valuation and sentiment. The US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent toward $97 this week. Watch this carefully — energy sector tailwind vs. macro rate headwind.
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🌐 FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS — NEUTRAL MARKET VIEW
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The following represents an objective summary of what the market and major economic data are currently reflecting. This section is NOT filtered to support the bullish trade direction — it reflects both positive and negative factors exactly as the market is pricing them.
🏦 ECB MONETARY POLICY:
The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points in June 2026, the first rate hike in nearly three years, taking the rate to 2.25%. This move was driven by rising energy prices related to the US-Iran conflict pushing Eurozone inflation to 3.2%. The ECB held rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting but explicitly signalled a September hike remains firmly on the table. Money markets are fully pricing in another 25bp hike at the upcoming ECB meeting (expected 10 September 2026), which would take the deposit rate to 2.50%. Markets also price the deposit rate reaching 3.00% by mid-2027. Rate hikes increase borrowing costs for corporates within the STOXX 50 universe and can apply valuation pressure to equities. This is a meaningful headwind to monitor.
📉 EUROZONE ECONOMIC GROWTH:
The Eurozone's Q1 2026 GDP contracted by -0.2% quarter-on-quarter, raising concerns of stagflation — a combination of weak growth and elevated inflation. Full-year 2026 GDP is projected at just 0.9% by the ECB's own Survey of Professional Forecasters, a downward revision driven by higher energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Weak growth fundamentals are a negative macro backdrop for European equities overall.
📈 EUROZONE INFLATION:
Headline CPI for the Eurozone rose to 3.2% — the highest reading since 2023. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) climbed to 2.5% in May 2026. The ECB projects headline inflation to average 3.0% for full-year 2026, declining to 2.3% in 2027 and returning to the 2.0% target in 2028. Persistent inflation above target keeps rate hike pressure alive, maintaining a contractionary monetary policy environment for Eurozone equities.
🌍 GEOPOLITICAL RISK — US-IRAN CONFLICT:
The ongoing US-Iran military confrontation has been the dominant macro risk driver in 2026. It has pushed Brent crude close to $97/barrel and introduced sustained energy price volatility. This is simultaneously inflating production costs for STOXX 50 corporates and stimulating upside in energy sector constituents. The conflict also adds a layer of political and supply-chain uncertainty that has weighed on investor confidence across European markets.
🇩🇪 GERMAN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:
Exit polls from Saxony-Anhalt state elections on 07 Sep 2026 indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has placed first, delivering a historic result. This outcome is a setback for Chancellor Merz's CDU, which recorded its worst result in Saxony-Anhalt since German reunification. German 10-year Bund yields edged higher in response, and the news added a cautious political overlay to European equity market sentiment on today's open. Political fragmentation within Germany — the Eurozone's largest economy — carries medium-term implications for EU fiscal coordination and growth investment.
🇺🇸 US EMPLOYMENT DATA — SPILLOVER EFFECT:
US Non-Farm Payrolls for August 2026 came in at +162,000 — significantly above the consensus forecast of approximately +65,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. This strong jobs print revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates again in September, pushing the S&P 500 lower (-0.38%) and Treasury yields higher on 05 Sep 2026. Elevated US rate expectations tend to strengthen the USD and apply downward pressure on risk assets globally, including European indices.
🏭 GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS:
Germany's factory orders for July 2026 rose +2.5%, exceeding market expectations of +0.3%, though easing from the +3.7% upwardly revised June reading. This is a modest positive data point for the German industrial sector and is supportive of the index at the margin, though it is insufficient on its own to offset the rate hike headwinds.
📊 SECTOR PERFORMANCE (TODAY, 07 SEP 2026 BST):
• Energy sector is trading positive, led by TotalEnergies (+1.6%) — oil price tailwind
• Technology sector mixed — ASML +1.2%, Infineon +1.8%
• Financials mixed — BNP Paribas and ING in the green, UniCredit and Santander slightly lower
• Healthcare under pressure — Novartis fell 3%+ after a cholesterol drug trial disappointment
• Automotive sector remains a bright spot within the broader DAX and by extension EU50
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📅 HIGH-IMPACT ECONOMIC CALENDAR — LONDON TIME (BST)
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The following upcoming events carry potential to move the EURO STOXX 50 significantly. Plan your trade management around these windows.
📌 Monday, 07 September 2026
• European equity markets open (08:00 BST) — Index already trading cautiously lower on geopolitical and rate concerns
📌 This Week (Week of 07 — 12 September 2026):
⚡ ECB Monetary Policy Decision (Expected: Thursday, 10 September 2026)
— Markets fully pricing in a 25bp rate hike to 2.50%
— ECB press conference by President Lagarde to follow
— This is THE event risk of the week for EU50. High volatility expected around announcement time (typically 13:15 — 14:30 BST for decision and presser)
⚡ Eurozone Q2 2026 GDP Final Reading
— Second estimate due this week; any revision versus preliminary figure could trigger index moves
⚡ US CPI Inflation Data (Mid-week)
— Critical for global risk sentiment — particularly relevant for Fed rate hike probability in September and USD strength direction
⚡ Eurozone Employment Changes — Q2 Final Data
— Labour market resilience vs. weakness will feed into ECB commentary tone
⚡ Germany / France Composite PMI Updates
— Eurozone business activity health indicators tracking closely in current environment
⚠️ Trading around scheduled high-impact events carries amplified risk. Widen SL or reduce position size ahead of ECB decision if holding multi-day positions.
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🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER MOTIVATION — OG WISDOM VAULT
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"In this market, the greatest heist isn't grabbing every pip from entry to target — it's knowing exactly when to walk out the door with what you came for. The Thief who survives is not the most greedy one. It's the most disciplined one."
"Every candle on this chart is a clue. Every zone is a door. Your job is not to predict the future — your job is to read the evidence, enter the vault at the right moment, take your profits with precision, and vanish before the market turns against you. That is the art of the Thief Trader."
"The police barricade at 6,550 — 6,577 is there for a reason, OG's. The market placed it. Institutions built it. It does not exist to stop you permanently — it exists to test your patience and your greed. Respect the resistance. Let price show you whether it will break or reverse. Then act."
"Risk is not the enemy. Unmanaged risk is. Set your levels. Trust your plan. Protect the bag."
"Remember — in this heist crew, we make money together, we take money together, and we live to trade another day. That is the Thief OG code."
— The Market Heist Master 🦹♂️🎯 
Long
What the Market Is Trading Now: AI Selectivity, Not AI EuphoriaMarkets barely moved at the index level this week — but that calm is misleading. The tape is telling a sharper story: capital is no longer paying for the AI theme as a bloc. It is paying for proof. Execution, demand visibility, and monetization timeline are the only things being rewarded, and everything else is being sold.
Our market-temperature model captures the split cleanly. The Nasdaq (IXIC) printed a TEMP10 of 69.35 — into defensive territory — while the S&P 500 (SPX, 80.06) and Dow (DJI, 80.26) hold neutral. When the growth index falls defensive while the broad indices stay neutral, the market isn't de-risking across the board; it is rotating inside the trade.
So what is actually being traded?
1) AI compute leadership — but only the parts with confirmed demand
NASDAQ:NVDA NVDA closed 230.36, +0.84% on the day and +5.89% on the week. AMD added 4.69% on Friday. Foxconn's above-consensus Q3 guide reinforced that server/accelerator demand is real. The market still believes the processors. It just stopped believing every AI adjacency.
2) The AVGO unwind is the cleanest tell
NASDAQ:AVGO AVGO finished 357.90, -2.95% on the week and -16.33% over 20 days, even after a flat Friday. Custom-silicon and networking progress has stalled, and the position is being reset. Put it next to NVDA's weekly +5.89% and you have the week's entire thesis in two tickers: demand clarity vs. positioning fatigue.
3) Platform divergence — META is the winner, software is the question
NASDAQ:META META closed 616.77, +6.70% on the week and +4.17% over 20 days — the strongest platform name by a mile. GOOGL (-2.35% wk) and AMZN (-2.97% wk) lagged; MSFT slipped 2.69% on the week as the market re-examines the gap between AI capex and software revenue. Deutsche Bank's line — software has to show the monetization — is the frame. Bernstein frames the ad battle as META vs. search. Several sell-side desks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, JPMorgan, BofA) pointed to substrate/PCB bottlenecks stretching visibility into 2027.
4) TSLA is the high-beta mood ring
NASDAQ:TSLA TSLA closed 354.08, -5.92% on Friday but still +7.76% over 20 days. That is profit-taking in a high-beta name, not a regime call — but watch whether the 20-day trend breaks.
Key levels
NASDAQ:IXIC Nasdaq: 26,500 support / 26,700 resistance. A clean break of 26,500 would confirm the defensive read.
SPCFD:SPX S&P 500: 7,700 support / 7,750 resistance.
TVC:DJI Dow: 53,400 / 53,700.
AVGO: 357.90 — does the reset find a base or keep bleeding?
META: 616.77 — can the relative strength hold if GOOGL/AMZN stay weak?
Tracking signals (observation, not a call)
Does the Nasdaq/S&P TEMP10 gap widen (defensive vs neutral) or close?
Does AI leadership broaden to memory / networking / substrate, or stay narrow in NVDA-AMD?
AVGO base or further unwind.
NASDAQ:META vs NASDAQ:GOOGL weekly spread.
The market is trading selectivity. Until the software monetization shows up or the AVGO reset finds a floor, expect the vol to stay in the names, not the index. 
Long
Spx 500 -- Leviticus 17:11 [Atonement]
Isaiah 25:8 He will swallow up death in victory; and the LORD God will wipe away tears from off all faces; and the rebuke of His people shall He take away from off all the earth: for the LORD hath spoken it.
2 Timothy 1:10 Now made manifest by the appearing of our Saviour Jesus Christ, who hath abolished death, and hath brought life and immortality to light through the gospel:
Hebrews 2:14-15 Forasmuch then as the children are partakers of flesh and blood, He also Himself likewise took part of the same; that through death He might destroy him that had the power of death, that is, the devil; And deliver them who through fear of death were all their lifetime subject to bondage.
John 11:25-26 Jesus said unto her, I AM the resurrection, and the life: he that believeth in Me, though he were dead, yet shall he live: And whosoever liveth and believeth in Me shall never die. Believest thou this?
1 Corinthians 15:55-57 O death, where is thy sting? O grave, where is thy victory? The sting of death is sin; and the strength of sin is the law. But thanks be to God, which giveth us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ.
Romans 8:38-39 For I am persuaded, that neither death, nor life, nor angels, nor principalities, nor powers, nor things present, nor things to come, Nor height, nor depth, nor any other creature, shall be able to separate us from the love of God, which is in Christ Jesus our Lord. 🇬🇧 US30 – Daily Analysis🇬🇧 US30 – Daily Analysis
The broader daily structure remains bullish, but price is currently moving through a bearish correction. H4, H1 and M15 momentum is bearish, while price is entering the discount zone around 53,100.
We would like to see a sweep of PDL followed by lower-timeframe bullish confirmation for a potential move back toward 53,700. A close below 53,100 would open the way toward 53,000–52,850.
Today is a US holiday, so we are not forcing any trades. We will monitor the structure and reassess tomorrow.
🇷🇸 US30 – Dnevna analiza
Šira dnevna struktura ostaje bullish, ali se cena trenutno nalazi u bearish korekciji. H4, H1 i M15 momentum je bearish, dok cena ulazi u discount zonu oko 53.100.
Želeli bismo da vidimo sweep PDL-a i bullish potvrdu na nižem vremenskom okviru za mogući povratak prema 53.700. Zatvaranje ispod 53.100 otvorilo bi prostor prema 53.000–52.850.
Danas je praznik u SAD, zato ne forsiramo trejdove. Pratimo razvoj strukture i ponovo analiziramo sutra.
Long
Short 
Nifty daily: below every average, inside a falling channelThis is the same structure as the lower timeframes, but the daily adds the averages, and the averages tell you why nothing bullish has stuck all year.
The long term average rolled over in March and has been declining ever since. Price has been under it for six straight months. Not one rally has closed above it. The August push at 24,650 got right to it, touched it, and turned. That is the third rejection off the triangle line and the first touch of the long term average in months, both at the same spot. That is where the current leg down started.
The triangle itself is the same two lines. February high 26,500 on top, April low 22,210 underneath, converging through August. Price walked out of the bottom of it in the last week of the month and has not been back.
What matters now on the daily is the average stack. Short term average is below the medium term. Medium term is below the long term. All three are pointing down. Price is below all three. That is a full bearish alignment, the first clean one since the April low, and it happened only after the channel dragged price through the rising trendline.
Close is 23,753, down 0.60 percent, sitting on the lower rail of the descending channel with the short and medium averages stacked overhead near 24,100 to 24,200. Every one of those is now resistance, and so is the broken triangle line, which sits in the same area. That is a lot of supply in one zone.
Levels, simply. Downside, June low 23,150, then 22,900, then the April low at 22,210. Upside, first job is a daily close back above 24,200 to clear the short and medium averages and get inside the triangle again. Until that happens the trend on the daily is down and every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend.
What would change my mind. A close above 24,200 that holds, then a reclaim of the long term average near 24,650. Until both, I treat rallies as sells into resistance and let the structure work.
Not a recommendation, just sharing what I am watching. 
Long
# DXY Week W37-2026: Strong Payrolls, Weak Follow-Through# DXY Week W37-2026: Strong Payrolls, Weak Follow-Through | 07 September 2026
**Reference data** | week 2026-W37
- Symbol: DXY
- Week: 2026-W37
- Bias: bearish
- Conviction: skip
- Regime: trending_down
- FX implication: trend_follow
- MTF alignment: all_bearish
- VWAP weekly: 99.151
- TrendSL weekly: 99.94
- Thesis snapshot close: 99.151
- Current market price: 99.165 (as of 2026-09-07T03:58:00+00:00; source yfinance:DX-Y.NYB:1m)
- US 10Y yield: 4.77%
- US 2Y yield: 4.34%
- US 10Y real yield: 2.42%
## L0 - Regime Identification
The immediate backdrop is a payrolls print that would normally support the dollar through rate expectations but has not delivered lasting follow-through. According to Reuters and BLS data released on September 4, August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 against a Reuters consensus of 56,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. The dollar initially surged, then pared most of those gains. Now, as of Monday September 7 at 03:58 UTC, DXY trades at 99.165, sitting just above the weekly VWAP at 99.151 and testing that level from above, while remaining below the weekly trend stop-loss at 99.94 by approximately 0.77 points. The regime classification is trending down in this snapshot; the action state is skip. The payrolls beat offered a possible counterweight to that regime; the fact that it has not is the single most important piece of information on the table right now.
The Reuters report as of September 7 adds the critical context: dollar bulls are struggling to sustain momentum because expectations of ECB and BOJ tightening are rising in parallel. Simultaneous tightening expectations can limit the expected US rate advantage. Actual relative pricing depends on the size and timing of each central bank's expected moves. A narrower rate differential reduces the mechanical incentive to own dollars even if the Fed itself is hiking, and that compression is what is capping the DXY recovery.
## L1 - Driver Stack
The driver picture is deliberately contradictory, and that contradiction is the whole story this week.
-> **Strongest bearish driver -- COT positioning:** Leveraged funds are positioned at extreme short levels against the dollar. COT (Commitments of Traders) data captures the net positioning of speculative participants; when leveraged funds reach an extreme short, it describes positioning already established, not fresh selling or proof of institutional foresight. However, the specific report week, release date, and net-position figures are not provided in the underlying data, so this reading should be treated as directional evidence rather than a precisely dated statistic.
-> **Bullish counterweight -- price action and the payrolls beat:** Short-term price behavior has been constructive. The 162K payrolls print versus the 56K consensus represents a substantial upside surprise and has pushed Fed rate-hike expectations higher for September. On its own, this is a meaningful USD-positive input.
-> **Divergence risk (medium severity):** When COT extreme shorts line up against bullish price action, the framework flags a carry unwind risk -- meaning speculative shorts may be forced to cover (buy back dollars) if price keeps rising, which could accelerate a move higher, but equally, if the price strength is not backed by real institutional demand, the surface-level rally can evaporate quickly. This divergence is actively reducing confidence in either clean direction.
-> **Macro headwind -- converging global tightening:** ECB and BOJ tightening expectations, as Reuters reported September 7, are not announced policy decisions but market-priced expectations. These expectations can constrain the US rate advantage and reduce the relative attractiveness of USD assets, which is a structural weight on DXY even if the Fed is hawkish.
## L2 - Macro Snapshot
The US yield curve sits at 10Y at 4.77%, 2Y at 4.34%, and the 10-year real yield -- meaning the yield after stripping out inflation compensation, which is what matters for currency attraction because it represents the actual purchasing power return on US assets -- at 2.42%. A real yield of 2.42% is not trivially low; it provides genuine carry incentive for foreign capital to hold dollars. That should support DXY. The complication is that the payrolls strength, despite exceeding the reported consensus, did not produce the sustained dollar bid one might expect. The market's initial reaction then partial reversal suggests traders are front-running the upcoming CPI data (scheduled per ForexFactory calendar data for September 11) rather than committing to a directional dollar view on payrolls alone. Average hourly earnings at 3.1% year-on-year are not, on their own, evidence of reaccelerating wage inflation -- that caveat matters because wage readings are one of the inputs the Fed watches for second-round inflation effects.
The macro inputs are mixed. Payrolls and real yields can support USD, while expected tightening abroad can limit its relative appeal. This does not override the skip decision.
## L3 - Technical Structure
At the thesis snapshot close, DXY was at 99.151, which is also the weekly VWAP. As of Monday September 7 at 03:58 UTC (source: yfinance DX-Y.NYB 1-minute), the live quote is 99.165 -- sitting 0.014 points above the weekly VWAP and testing it from above. This is not a breakout; it is a grind along a contested level.
The weekly trend stop-loss sits at 99.94. Price is 0.774 points below that level. The multi-timeframe alignment reads all bearish. The practical implication of an all-bearish MTF stack is that the monitored timeframe signals agree on a bearish direction; this is not a probability estimate or evidence of actual selling flows. The VWAP test from above is the near-term pivotal level: as long as price holds above 99.151, there is still a thread of short-term momentum working against the bearish thesis, but it is a thin thread.
## L4 - Intermarket Cross-Check
The FX implication flagged by the framework is trend follow, meaning the directional classification follows the established downtrend; it does not authorize a trade because the action state is skip. With MTF alignment unanimously bearish, there is no timeframe providing a bullish countertrend signal that would justify a contrarian dollar-long position. The payrolls beat has created a surface-level tension -- price has edged above VWAP -- but the broader multi-timeframe weight has not shifted. Crowding risk (meaning the risk that too many participants are already positioned in the same direction, so the trade becomes vulnerable to a squeeze rather than continued trend extension) is relevant here because of the COT extreme short reading. If speculative shorts are crowded, a stronger-than-expected CPI print could create a covering risk. Structural invalidation would require a weekly close above TrendSL weekly at 99.94; an intraday move alone is insufficient.
## L5 - Event Risk
The two events that will define the next directional move are both on the inflation front:
-> **September 10, 2026 -- PPI m/m and Core PPI m/m at 08:30 US Eastern (ForexFactory calendar data):** Producer prices are a leading read on consumer inflation pipeline pressure. Its components may inform inflation expectations, but an upside PPI surprise does not establish an upside CPI surprise the following day.
-> **September 11, 2026 -- CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y at 08:30 US Eastern / 19:30 Vietnam time (ForexFactory calendar data):** This is the deciding event. The dollar's failure to hold payrolls-driven gains means the market is waiting for this print before committing. Outcomes are not yet known.
Inflation scenarios are conditional. An upside surprise could support US rate expectations; a softer reading could weaken them. Neither outcome guarantees a DXY move, and reactions abroad matter. Price is currently above VWAP weekly at 99.151 and below TrendSL weekly at 99.94. A weekly close above TrendSL weekly at 99.94 would invalidate the bearish structure. A future move below VWAP could ease the current momentum conflict, but would not automatically change skip into an entry.
## L6 - Conviction Scorecard
The overall bias remains bearish, but the evidence available right now is not convincing enough to size a position. This is a deliberate decision to stand aside, not a default. The signal conflict -- price edging above VWAP while COT positioning is extreme short and macro direction is mixed -- means the risk of being wrong on timing is high even if the directional call eventually proves correct. Traders who act on the bearish bias before CPI resolution are accepting a meaningful chance of being squeezed by a hot inflation print. The framework's stance is to wait for the data to resolve the conflict before committing.
## L7 - Time Horizon
**Near-term (days, into September 11):** Price is in a holding pattern above VWAP weekly at 99.151, below trend stop-loss at 99.94. The PPI data on September 10 may begin to set the tone, but CPI on September 11 is the real binary event. There is no basis in this snapshot to assume a quiet or contained trading range before the release.
**Timeline (3 weeks):** This is the analysis horizon, not a forecast that the downtrend must resume within three weeks. The current decision remains skip. Later data and price behavior require a fresh assessment rather than automatic activation of a trade.
**Medium-term:** The ECB and BOJ tightening expectations -- assuming they persist and are validated by actual policy signals -- represent a structural headwind for the rate differential argument. Even if the Fed hikes in September, a world where multiple major central banks are also tightening is structurally different from a world of US-only monetary policy divergence, which was the dominant DXY bull narrative in prior cycles. That structural shift, if it deepens, is what keeps the medium-term bias tilted down.
## L8 - Invalidation Conditions
-> **CURRENT REALITY -- price at 99.165 is already above VWAP weekly at 99.151:** Short-term momentum is already running against the bearish thesis. This is not a future scenario -- it is the live condition as of Monday September 7 at 03:58 UTC. Traders not yet positioned should factor this into their timing assessment. Traders already holding short exposure should reassess their own risk against this condition, because the VWAP is no longer providing a ceiling.
-> ** Weekly close above TrendSL weekly at 99.94:** This is the structural invalidation level. A weekly close above 99.94 would mean the downtrend's defining resistance has been absorbed and the bearish structure would be invalidated -- at that point, shorts would need to be reassessed and the regime classification reviewed. The price condition applies regardless of which catalyst produces it. No such weekly close is recorded in this snapshot.
---
*This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.*
#DXY #DollarIndex #USD #ForexTrading #MacroTrading #FedRateHike #CPI #NFP #COT #RateDifferential #EURUSD #USDJPY #TechnicalAnalysis #FXMacro #CentralBankPolicy 
Short
DAX (GER30) Price Outlook – Trade Setup🌐Macro Background
The DAX (GER30) traded sideways around the 26,000 level as the index started the week "without renewed impetus," reflecting a lack of strong domestic catalysts and some consolidation, despite a materially weaker-than-expected German industrial production print for July. Moving forward, DAX trading is likely to hinge on upcoming Eurozone final Q2 GDP and employment data. Furthermore, with investors turning cautious ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision—where a rate hike is expected—the index's upside may remain subdued in the near term.
📊Technical Structure
The DAX is operating within a clear Descending Channel; near-term price action is currently fluctuating around the channel's midline.
Resistance Zone: 26,177 – 26,282
Support Zone: 25,730 – 25,834
🎯Trade Setup(Sell Rallies at Resistance)
Entry Area: Initiate short positions upon bearish rejection signals within the 26,177 – 26,282 Resistance Zone. Targets at 25,730 – 25,834, with stop loss placed slightly above 26,300.
❌Invalidation
A decisive close above 26,282 invalidates the bearish channel structure.
📝Trade Summary
Market sentiment remains cautious and largely sidelined. Traders should look to play the established channel boundaries, prioritising short entries near the 26,177–26,282 resistance area.
⚠️Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential. 
Short
Long 
Short
