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Spx 500 -- The Good Shepherd
Psalm 23:4-5 Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for Thou art with me; Thy rod and Thy staff they comfort me. Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: Thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.
Isaiah 43:11-13 I, even I, AM the LORD; and beside Me there is no saviour. I have declared, and have saved, and I have shewed, when there was no strange god among you: therefore ye are My witnesses, saith the LORD, that I AM God. Yea, before the day was I AM He; and there is none that can deliver out of My hand:
1 John 2:1-2 My little children, these things write I unto you, that ye sin not. And if any man sin, we have an advocate with the Father, Jesus Christ The Righteous: And He is the propitiation for our sins: and not for ours only, but also for the sins of the whole world.
John 3:35 The Father loveth the Son, and hath given all things into His hand.
John 6:37 All that the Father giveth Me shall come to Me; and him that cometh to Me I will in no wise cast out.
John 17:2 As Thou hast given Him power over all flesh, that He should give eternal life to as many as Thou hast given Him.
2 Corinthians 5:21 For He hath made Him to be sin for us, who knew no sin; that we might be made the righteousness of God in Him. 
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😱 COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR 2022 - 2045 - END OF EMPIREHello ladies and gentlemen! I bring to your attention my very global view of the US dollar solely from the point of view of technical analysis, namely the Elliot wave theory.
The graph shows the projection of the missing waves in the impulse of the supercycle - I-II-III-IV-V, the impulse is fully completed and ended back in 1985.
In my opinion, from the point of view of technical analysis and the Elliot wave theory itself, a zigzag has been forming globally on the US dollar index in the corrective phase since 1985, with a triangle in wave-(b). The ultimate goal of this zigzag is a collapse of the dollar index by minus -80% from ATH.
Ultimately, the Fed will lose in the fight against inflation, after the triangle is fully formed, a descending impulse five will begin in wave-(c) of the zigzag, I believe around 2030 plus or minus the triangle will be broken down, this will be a distress signal and confirmation I'm right, from now on, save your savings, because after the dollar index finds a bottom in the region of 20-30 points, for 100 dollars you can only buy a roll of toilet paper. BRENT oil will be $300-400 per barrel, and gold $5,000-6,000 a troy ounce, and that's even better. Naturally, after this collapse, the dollar will lose its status as the world's main reserve currency, the economy will stagnate amid hyperinflation, it will be many times worse than the Great Depression, and the markets will remember this apocalypse for a long time.
After the collapse of the US dollar, a new world order will be established, there will be a new leader and a new major world reserve currency. I believe this will end the approximately 250 year dollar cycle and the US Dollar Index will never again update its ATH.
❌ This trade idea should be reconsidered if DXY exceeds the 121 level, which is unlikely in my opinion. In this case, it will definitely not be a triangle.
This is my purely personal author's opinion, whether you share it with me or not is your own business, always think with your own head - I wish you good luck! VIX - Hedge or Spec? Part 2The conclusion of my last post (find it here ) was that large institutions, Wall Street broker/dealers, banks and the like, were heavily hedged against equity risk (represented as TVC:VIX ). Therefore, it wasn't going to go anywhere. Let's take a look at what it's been doing in the month since my post.
Interesting. The range is clearly expanding, but the market has made close to no net movement. Let's see what CBOE:VVIX is up to.
Now that's hot. The range of equity volatility expanding, but the volatility of the volatility of equity range is downtrending? I pointed out in the last post how VIX was making new lows while VVIX was not, and that is no longer true. Both market have made highs since and lows since then, but while both have made a new low on the daily, only the VIX has made a new high on the daily. The opposite of the trend that existing in August. Interesting. Let's flip over to bond volatility TVC:MOVE for a second.
Ain't that something. This is a daily bar chart of the last year and a half or so, since nothing interesting happens in bonds in less than a month (with the exception of global market crises). Volatility here is compressing.
Crude Oil volatility CBOE:OVX is doing the same. While VIX is expanding, and VVIX is down-trending, two of the hottest markets right now, Oil and Bonds are compressing. Something is quite amiss here, and I suspect we have a classic case of "someone got their hand caught in the cookie jar" on Wall Street. Let's take a closer look at those markets.
A messy chart here. Crude oil, along with some benchmarks for bond markets. Crude, on a wider spread may still be in a compression pattern, and aggregate bonds have flattened out, but yields for Treasuries are at all time highs. What is of note about that, is that pretty much all options and derivatives priced with the BS model (which is basically all of them), have a component called Rho which is the sensitivity to risk-free interest rates, of which Treasury bonds are a large contingent.
So let's think about flows here. Higher oil and oil derivatives causes inflation, because the use of products like diesel are heavily relied upon in virtually every major industry, from farming and mining to data centers and logistics. We are coming out of a low-oil-price regime for the better part of the last decade, and it is safe to assume that since producers hedge years in advance, they were positioned for the climate-change regime to proliferate and not for war in Iran to double the price in a year. Big oil has hit the jackpot, but likely was hedged against it. Since it is very possible this latest rally is producers unwinding those hedges through their broker/dealers, as the banks behind those transactions are now hitting the news with reports about how they see this new war-driven regime persisting. In addition to the fact that oil futures are ridiculously backwardated, this would suggest inflation will persist. Therefore interest rates will rise, and to counter the Fed will raise rates. Therefore the return on cash is higher, and the risk in equity is higher. Well, we have now seen the Fed raise rates, and equity volatility expand right on time. The VVIX down-trending means that this is priced in. Because it is the job of smart money to see this kind of thing coming.
Think about TVC:MOVE for a second though. Higher overnight rates generally do not effect duration the way they effect money markets and bills. But in the Powell regime hikes became a clear Fed signal that something was amiss, and MOVE would rise. Warsh set a hawkish tone and markets called his bluff, forcing his hand to raise. As of Tuesday, the rate hike odds were 90% for a 25bps hike, which was delivered. But what does this mean for markets at large?
Consider that at 3.75%, Treasuries are not only the most liquid sovereign paper on the market, but the highest yielding sovereign paper on the market. Media pundits have been calling for years for a crash in duration Treasuries, with the US fiscal spending at all time highs and a gigantic debt. But every sovereign in the world has that kind of debt, it's only one sovereign that can offer competitive rates on their product. With the AI rally stalled, inflation on the horizon, and VIX swinging up and down, what does anyone think large institutions are buying right now? There was big news about a Scandinavian pension selling its Treasury holdings, what are they gonna buy? German paper at 2.5%?'
It seems to me that VIX hedging is unwinding. The ebbs and flows are now mostly a product of speculation, which tends to be rife around the time of Fed meetings as they generally tend to be pretty volatile events that set the trend for a few months. But the compression in oil and bond volatility indicates some form of suppression, and there are many possible sources of this. Higher volatility in these markets does not really benefit anyone.
This post has very little to do with VIX, and as an investor myself I do not like to disclose my positions. This is a platform for ideas. Reading between the lines and thinking critically about markets is what a trader is supposed to do. There is a deep upset brewing in markets right now, and it virtually invisible on the surface. Reportedly positioning for Treasuries is virtually all shorts. It is NEVER just about one market.
A special thank you to Mr. Martin Armstrong for teaching me that lesson. Keep fighting the good fight traders. Long 
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Bullish bounce at pullback support?USTEC is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 29,260.21
1st Support: 28,610.39
1st Resistance: 29,295.16
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. Long 
NIFTY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS FOR 18 SEPTEMBER 2026# NIFTY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS | 18 SEP 2026
## 🚨 PESSIMISM IS THE NEW REALITY — BUT IS THE MARKET REALLY BEARISH?
The final sentiment analysis of the week comes with an interesting contradiction:
🟢 **Bias:** MILD BULLISH
⚠️ **Character:** TRAP / CONFLICT
⚡ **Behaviour:** EXPLOSIVE
🟠 **Options Bias:** PE DOMINANT
So this is **not a clean bullish setup**.
It is a bullish bias operating inside a pessimistic market.
---
## 🎯 TODAY'S KEY LEVELS
**23,331.25** — Opening Reference
🟢 **23,275** — Key Support
🔵 **23,331** — Key Level
🔴 **23,387** — Resistance
🟠 **23,443** — Major Resistance
The market is currently around **23,330**, almost exactly at the key **23,331** level.
The battlefield:
**Above 23,331 → 23,387 → 23,443**
**Below 23,275 → bullish thesis needs reassessment**
Don't predict the breakout.
**Watch the reaction.**
---
## ⏰ THE TIME ANCHOR
### **14:15 PM**
This is today's key time checkpoint.
With **EXPLOSIVE behaviour + TRAP/CONFLICT**, the period around and after the anchor becomes important for watching:
⚡ Expansion
🔄 Reversal
🎯 Directional resolution
The anchor is **not a guarantee of direction**.
It is a window where behaviour deserves closer attention.
---
## 👀 SECTORS TO WATCH
🥇 **Energy +5** — strongest signal
🥈 **Infra/Metals +3**
🥉 **Pharma +2**
**Energy is today's primary sector to watch.**
If Energy confirms strength while NIFTY holds/clears the key levels, the bullish thesis gets additional confirmation.
If sector participation fails, that divergence matters.
---
## 🧠 THE REAL FRAMEWORK
The purpose of sentiment analysis isn't to tell you:
**BUY.**
or
**SELL.**
It is to tell you:
**WHAT to watch.**
**WHERE to watch it.**
**WHEN to watch it.**
**WHAT would change the thesis.**
**Model → Hypothesis**
**Price → Evidence**
**Time → Checkpoint**
**Reaction → Verdict**
---
# 🏁 FINAL SENTIMENT ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK
For five trading sessions, the map has been published with:
🎯 Price levels
⏰ Time anchors
⚡ Behaviour
👀 Trap potential
📊 Sector signals
🧭 Directional sentiment
And then the market gets to grade the work.
So here's my question:
### **Have you seen this level of detailed Time + Price + Sentiment analysis being published publicly and tested day after day?**
**YES?** Tell me where.
**NO?** Tell me that too.
Because this isn't about asking you to believe me.
**It's about making the analysis testable.**
No deleted calls.
No rewritten narratives.
No hindsight.
**Publish the map.
Let the market write the answer.**
📍 **Price gives the level.**
⏰ **Time gives the trigger.**
⚡ **Reaction gives the truth.**
**See you next week.** 🎯
*Market-context and educational analysis only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.*
#NIFTY #NIFTY50 #MarketSentiment #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketTiming #TradingView #NSE #IndianStockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #IntradayTrading #TradingPsychology
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