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US30Education Purpose
US30 H4 — Professional Market Outlook
Current Price: ~52,558
Key Resistance: 53,800–54,000
Major Resistance: 55,000–55,200
Key Support: 52,000–52,300
Major Demand Zone: 49,000–50,500
Market Structure:
US30 remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe, but price is currently undergoing a corrective phase after rejecting the 55,000 area. The recent decline has created two potential scenarios, with confirmation required before committing to directional exposure.
Scenario 1 — Bullish Continuation
The preferred bullish scenario is that the current correction completes above the 52,000–52,300 support area.
Confirmation:
H4 rejection/failed breakdown below support
Bullish market-structure shift
Strong bullish displacement
Price reclaims the immediate resistance area
Potential targets:
TP1: 53,800–54,000
TP2: 54,500
TP3: 55,000+
The larger structure would then support a continuation toward a new high.
Scenario 2 — Bearish Correction
The bearish scenario becomes stronger if US30 breaks and closes below 52,000, followed by a failed retest.
Confirmation:
H4 bearish displacement
Break of the rising structure
Failed retest of broken support
Increasing downside momentum
Potential targets:
TP1: 51,000
TP2: 50,500
TP3: 49,000–50,000 demand zone
A deeper decline into the 49,000–50,500 zone would still be considered a correction unless the higher-timeframe bullish structure is decisively invalidated.
US30 H4 is currently in a corrective phase within a broader bullish structure. The 52,000–52,300 area is the immediate decision zone. A confirmed bullish rejection from this region favors continuation toward 54,000 and potentially 55,000+. Conversely, a confirmed H4 breakdown and retest below 52,000 would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward 50,500 and the 49,000–50,000 demand zone. Until confirmation appears, capital preservation remains the priority.
Key principle: Do not trade the Elliott Wave count itself. Use the wave count as a scenario framework, then let price action, structure and risk management determine execution. NASDAQ 100: Tech Remains Under Pressure as Oil and Inflation RisThe Nasdaq 100 is trading near 29,171 after a sharp intraday selloff. The index is below the EMA 9, SMA 200, EMA 200 and SMA 50, showing that short-term momentum has turned bearish. RSI near 38 signals weak momentum, but not a deeply oversold market.
The macro backdrop is challenging for growth stocks. Higher oil prices are reviving inflation concerns and putting pressure on bonds and equities, while the market waits for Friday’s U.S. CPI release.
The nearest support is 29,000, followed by the key structural level at 28,920. A confirmed H1 close below 28,920 would strengthen the bearish structure.
On the upside, buyers first need to reclaim 29,217. Above that, the 29,378–29,421 moving-average zone is the main recovery barrier. Only a sustained move above this area would reduce immediate downside pressure. The larger resistance remains 29,750.
⚠️ Not financial advice. 
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USD Red on the Week Despite Seemingly Bullish BackdropIt hasn't exactly been a burning down situation in DXY but given the backdrop, one likely would've expected strength to show in the Dollar basket.
Inflation prints on Thursday and Friday keep the Fed on track to hike next week, and those odds for a 25 bp move at next Wednesday's meeting firmed up to 90%, at one point. And now there's even high expectation for a second hike this year, to the tune of around 75%.
Coupled with that is the massive move in US Treasury yields that saw the 30-year bond set a fresh 19-year high and the 10-year note is on the verge of a similar move, holding just one basis point below the psychologically important 5% level.
Normally, this would be enough to prod some element of strength in the currency but that's not the case for the past week, and there's a major reason as to why.
That rolls back to the USD/JPY carry trade, and despite the fact that US inflation remains above that of Japan, the prospect of capped upside is making the long side of the pair more unattractive. This isn't to say that there can't be dips in the major pair - but given the USD/JPY chart, it does seem as though 'buy the dip' is now shifting in to 'sell the rip.'
And given how built up USD/JPY still is, at more than 50% above early 2021 values, there's still a crowded long trade in there and as that comes off, even if just by a little, that can have reverberations throughout the FX market with the USD as the center point for the push. - JS 
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