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Volatility 75 Index(1H)Bullish Trend Pauses at Major ResistanceConstant Volatility 75 Index remains in a strong uptrend after breaking above a multi-day consolidation and accelerating toward fresh swing highs. Following an impulsive rally into the 53,500–53,700 resistance zone, the market is now undergoing a healthy pullback as traders lock in profits.
Technical Analysis
The broader market structure continues to favor the bulls, with a clear sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). Price respected the descending trendline earlier in the week before breaking above it, confirming a bullish continuation.
The breakout above the 51,000 resistance triggered a strong impulsive move, carrying price to a new higher high near 53,700. Since reaching that level, the market has begun retracing toward previous breakout support around 52,000.
At this stage, the decline appears corrective rather than a full trend reversal. As long as price remains above the recent breakout zone, the bullish structure remains intact. 
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Volatility 25 Index (1H) Bullish Trend Faces First PULLBACKConstant Volatility 25 Index remains in a well-established uptrend after breaking out of a multi-day ascending structure. However, after printing a fresh Higher High (HH) near 2,830, the market has entered its first significant pullback, bringing price back toward a key support zone around 2,770–2,780.
Technical Analysis
The chart continues to display a bullish market structure with consecutive Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). The ascending channel guided the market higher before buyers accelerated the move with a breakout above 2,760, leading to a strong rally into the 2,820–2,830 resistance area.
Following this impulsive move, sellers stepped in at resistance, producing a sharp rejection. Rather than signaling an immediate trend reversal, this decline currently appears to be a healthy correction toward previous breakout support.
The 2,770–2,780 region is particularly important because it combines:
Previous resistance turned potential support.
A psychological round-number zone.
The area where buyers previously initiated the latest bullish leg.
As long as price holds above this region, the broader bullish structure remains intact. Short 
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DXY - Will the dollar continue to fall?The dollar index (DXY) is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If this channel is maintained and there is no valid upward breakout, we can see the downward trend continue to the target of the downward channel bottom.
In the two demand areas that are also at the intersection of the channel bottom, we will look for re-buying the dollar with a reward at an appropriate risk in dollar currency pairs or the occurrence of downward fluctuations in global gold ounces.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting revealed that although policymakers ultimately voted to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.5% to 3.75% range, several officials favored raising rates further. As concerns over the labor market have eased somewhat, policymakers have shifted their primary focus toward upside inflation risks, driven by factors such as higher energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict, growing demand related to artificial intelligence, and the impact of tariffs. Market participants are now closely watching the July 14 inflation report as well as Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony.
Committee members also broadly agreed that the updated policy statement should reaffirm the Federal Reserve's strong commitment to its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and maintaining price stability. In particular, they emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains fully committed to restoring price stability.
Furthermore, a majority of participants viewed the decision to shorten and simplify the FOMC policy statement as beneficial, with the statement being reduced to roughly 130 words during this meeting. Several officials also welcomed the launch of a broader review of the Federal Reserve's communication tools and strategy—an initiative previously advocated by Kevin Warsh to provide greater policy flexibility and reduce the market's reliance on forward guidance.
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Hang Seng 50: Trapped between stimulus hope and a tariff wall ?For the Hang Seng 50, Thursday's trading started off with all the pressure associated with an extremely complicated macro environment facing an Asian index this cycle. July 9 has been the deadline for the latest tariff package from the USA to return to high rates unless they were extended further. Instead of easing tensions, the market is receiving new pressures in the form of another tariff on Chinese goods. This time, President Trump decided to implement a 50% tariff on US copper imports from China, directly hitting the EV and tech companies that form the foundation of the Hang Seng most actively traded stocks. At the same time, Trump stated about the new tariffs on drugs and semiconductors. All this led to an instant drop in stocks BYD was down by 1.47%, Li Auto by 1.41%, Baidu by 1.12%, and Alibaba by 1.03%. It resulted in a decrease of 1.16% in the Hang Seng Tech Index. Moreover, China's macro numbers added more pressure. PPI fell by 3.6% YOY in June. The counterbalance to this is Beijing itself. The Chinese mainland markets ; the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite are both trading positively due to expectations for new stimulus measures, and the dichotomy between the mainland and Hong Kong's outlooks is one which has characterized this market all year. Hong Kong trades the fear, while the mainland trades the government reaction.
This is a very accurate portrayal of the above mentioned split personality. What the price action here tells us is the index has undergone a controlled and systematic decline from its May high close to 26,900 to its current level at around 23,988, which represents a roughly 11% decline, and is now trying to stabilize itself inside the June-July congestion area. The EMA configuration here is the most important aspect of the chart. The lone EMA is moving upwards from left to right, has been acting as a ceiling for the entire decline. Each rally has found its resistance there without taking control of it, which is precisely what defines a market still in technical decline despite its attempt at stabilizing. This price is moving just above the 50-day EMA at 23,566, which has been the only support so far in terms of structural value.RSI at 49.01 is the least dishonest indicator on the chart. The RSI indicator is slightly below the neutral 50 level, thus indicating that the asset is neither oversold nor overbought. Instead, the current RSI value shows that the asset has experienced an 11 percent decline and now has no particular direction. This is not a problem with the indicator but rather the purpose of the trading strategy based on such data. However, the MACD is where the most valuable signal is on the chart. In this case, the MACD line at −382 and the signal at −507.6 are very low and even negative. Therefore, the medium-term trend of the asset has been bearish since the moment of its fall. However, the histogram of the MACD has become positive and displays the largest green bar visible on the entire chart during the current session. The appearance of the positive histogram within very negative MACD lines is the earliest momentum reversal indicator. This does not mean that the downtrend will end soon. Instead, it means that the pace of falling has slowed down.
Trade recommendation
Direction : Cautiously long
Entry horizon : 23,500 – 23,988
Primary target : 24,355
Secondary target : 24,533
Stop loss : 23,500
Technical scenarios
Beijing-led resurgence : A tangible fiscal package encompassing property relief, rate cuts, or government spending would validate the MACD’s bullish divergence. A sustained RSI rise above 50 and a close above 24,000 would solidify the current congestion zone as support. In this optimistic scenario, the index would target 24,533, with 24,874 marking a full trend recovery.
Protectionist attrition : Ongoing trade restrictions may yield tariff exhaustion, where negative news triggers a diminishing bearish response. This suggests a sideways grind within the 23,500–24,355 corridor, favoring a patient, range-bound strategy over momentum chasing.
Structural anchor failure : A daily close below 23,500, breaking the 50-day EMA, would signal that headwinds have overwhelmed stimulus support. This invalidates the consolidation thesis, exposing the index to a drop toward 23,000 and potentially the April lows near 20,264. The 50-day EMA remains the critical line in the sand.
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U100 Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationUS100 continues to trade under strong bearish pressure as the overall market structure favors sellers. After failing to sustain higher prices, the index has formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that bearish momentum is still dominant. Every recovery attempt has been met with fresh selling interest, showing that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control.
Price is now hovering around a critical support zone near 29,000, which is acting as a short-term decision point. While a temporary rebound from this area cannot be ruled out, such a move would likely be considered a corrective pullback unless the market successfully breaks and closes above the major resistance zone around 29,600–29,850. That area remains the key supply zone where sellers are expected to defend their positions aggressively.
If the current support level fails to hold, it could trigger another wave of selling pressure, increasing the probability of a continuation toward the next major demand zone around 28,350–28,400. A break below support would confirm renewed bearish momentum and may attract additional selling from both technical traders and institutions.
For now, the market continues to favor selling opportunities on pullbacks rather than aggressive buying. Traders should remain patient and wait for clear confirmation before entering positions, as false breakouts and short-term volatility are common around major support levels. Risk management remains essential, especially with upcoming market-moving events that could increase volatility.
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Short 
FTSE 100 (1H) – Sharp Sell-Off Tests Key SupportThe FTSE 100 has experienced a significant intraday decline after failing to sustain trading above the 10,600 resistance zone. The strong bearish impulse has erased recent gains and pushed price back toward a major support area around 10,430–10,450, where buyers are attempting to stabilize the market.
Technical Analysis
The chart shows that price previously respected an ascending channel before breaking higher and establishing a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). However, repeated rejection near 10,680–10,700 exhausted bullish momentum.
The recent bearish candle has broken through multiple intraday support levels, shifting the short-term bias in favor of sellers. Price is now testing a historical demand zone around 10,430, making this an important decision point.
While the broader medium-term trend remains constructive, the immediate momentum is bearish until buyers reclaim lost resistance. 
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The Market Is Ignoring Bad News... For NowHi traders!🦬🐻👾
Starting today, in addition to my daily Bitcoin analysis, I'll also be publishing daily SPX500USD market updates.
My last major SPX analysis, published on April 17, played out exactly as expected and reached every target. You can find the full breakdown on my page. It wasn't just about support and resistance levels—it explained the market mechanics and psychology behind crisis-driven price action🎓🎓💰
After more than 10 years of trading, I've witnessed how markets react to numerous geopolitical and financial crises. Understanding investor psychology during these periods is often far more valuable than simply identifying technical levels.
A quick recap of that analysis:
❗Crisis → Accumulation → Expansion
Panic creates the bottom, smart money accumulates, and the market moves higher.
🔪 Crisis
Since late October, SPX had been trading inside the 6800–7000 range. Several failed breakout attempts above 7000 were followed by a return to the lower boundary of the range. At that exact critical point, military conflict began.
🏌️🥃 Accumulation
The breakdown of the range triggered a sharp decline toward 6300 (my target was 6150), followed by aggressive buying from large market participants.
🚀 Expansion
News about negotiations (first weekly "rocket"), the end of military actions (second weekly "rocket"), and finally the breakout above the previous all-time high at 7000 (third weekly "rocket").
At that time, defining upside targets wasn't easy, but considering the strength of the breakout, I projected 7300 as the next objective, while 7000 was expected to become support.
❗️Current Market View
Forecasting medium- and especially long-term targets for SPX is never easy, particularly when price is trading near all-time highs, where there is essentially open air above. Even so, several important observations stand out.
✅First, the market continues to respect the 7300 support level remarkably well.
✅✅Second, price has neither tested nor even approached the 100 EMA or 200 EMA on the daily timeframe. This highlights the strength of the current bullish trend.
✅✅✅Most importantly, the market barely reacted to the renewed U.S.–Iran conflict.
It appears that investors have either become desensitized to this geopolitical risk or had already priced in the possibility of renewed tensions.
📈💎Upside Targets & Resistance
Given the current technical structure, I believe the most likely scenario is a continuation toward the all-time high at 7625, provided the geopolitical situation does not escalate further and instead remains stable or gradually de-escalates.
If SPX manages to break and hold above 7625, the next upside objective becomes 7925. This target is based on the measured move of the current 7300–7625 trading range.
🪓Key Support Levels
7300 — Local horizontal support.
7200 — Area of the 100 EMA (1D).
7000 — Previous ATH
Have a great trading day, week, and a great life, everyone! 🌄
⚠️ Disclaimer:
All information shared on this channel is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice. The author is not responsible for your trading decisions. Always manage your risks and make decisions independently. 
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NASDAQ…Is the Market Finally Running Out of Steam? July 9 UPDATESo, we posted on June 30 that the Nasdaq was showing signs of weakness and was playing out a structure that we are all too familiar with. So, let's take another look now that it's been 9 days and see what's been happening.
I've been watching this Daily Time Frame structure and we've had a Major problem brewing. From the way I trade, there was a Daily Break of Structure DOWN on June 10. The last major Demand Zone for Nas100 was broken on that day, signaling that the Bulls were no longer going to keep pumping it up. It pulled a fake-out retracement and got rejected between June 16-23. That is the cycle I usually look for to confirm the warning signal is valid.
In my experience, once this happens, It is 80% likely to fall down to the identified support areas...First, this daily FVG around (26,280 - 26,920). Then, if that doesn't hold, down to the Daily Demand Source at 24,580. Now, the only way it doesn't is if we can get a daily candle to close back up above the Yellow Source Zone. The market has tried 3 times so far to do that and got rejected each time. If you look at the H4 Chart, you can see how the most recent pullback got rejected at what I have marked as the H4 Supply Zone (29,605 - 29,825). This is the most current resistance area. Thursday and Friday could see another fake-out retest of this area.
So...I'm looking for the Nas100 to follow this trade plan. It could be a few days or few weeks to play out, so the option chains will be tricky. For any of the individual tech stocks, I'm doing the same kind of analysis to see which ones will follow this overall Nas100 plan or which may diverge based on their own structure. Hope this helps. Would love to get your thoughts!
If you enjoy learning how institutions move the market, follow Akeelah Traders here and on YouTube. We post new market structure breakdowns throughout the week, and have started a weekly FREE Live trading class to show how we READ the markets. Short 
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