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SMCI: news flow leaning bullish · No. 280
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ Google Goes Nuclear in Nordic Data Center Push - Industrial Info Resources
++ 3 US Grid Stocks Riding The Data Center Power Buildout - simplywall.st
+ Google eyes new data center project in New Mexico's Lea County - datacenters.economictimes.indiatimes.com
9 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) 
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NVDA Cleared 222.73 And 224.51 In One Session.NVDA Cleared 222.73 And 224.51 In One Session.
NVDA is trading at 224.07 after holding 220.18 on Friday and clearing both levels above it, with the high at 224.90. That is the fifth and sixth level reclaimed in seven sessions, and the 220.18 retest from above - price coming back to a level it had already taken, which is the test that separates a repair from a trend - resolved upward. The 4H structure announced a new bull zone this morning with a clear path ahead of it, while hourly volume sits near the bottom of its range, so the move is going in without expansion behind it. Neutral.
Resistance: 224.90 - the session high
Key resistance: 226.88 - the top of the newly announced zone, then 227.11
Current price: 224.07
Support: 220.18 - the level reclaimed and then defended
Key support: 217.74 - the band beneath
Structural floor: 214.58 - the gap-fill level
Two paths from here:
It holds 222.73 and takes 224.90. That opens 226.88 and 227.11, the first real structure since the August highs, and the repair stops being a repair. The newly announced zone sits directly in that path.
It loses 222.73 and closes back under 220.18. That would make the two-level clearance a spike rather than an extension, and puts price back in the 217.74 to 219.34 band it spent most of last week working through.
Seven sessions, six levels, and no earnings between here and the next one. 222.73 is the first thing that would say the sequence has stopped.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.5 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
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Fastenal $FastFastenal is a B2B industrial distributor and supply chain services business.
Its core business is inventory management for manufacturing, construction, and commercial facilities, supplying fasteners, safety gear, and MRO products.
While Fastenal is a corrective stock, meaning it has deep pullbacks.
It consistently delivers over 100% growth during the bull market.
In the bull phase from 2018 to 2021, it gained over 170%, and during the bullish market from 2022 to 2025, it went up 130%.
Now, with the current upward direction, I expect the stock to grow 100%, bringing the price toward the $78 range.
This is Fastenal stock’s pattern: it corrects, consolidates, then explodes.
I don’t expect anything less than its usual growth trajectory.
Long-Term Portfolio
In my long-term portfolio, my first investment started at the price of $41 after a bear market that reached down to the demand zone I was expecting it to reach, and the second time I used the three-touch setup with Chod confirmation,
I bought it at $45,20.
When you look at the chart, you'll notice that I always buy the stock before a clean bullish move happens.
The reason is that the market sweeps all the liquidity, then confirms a change of direction (CHOD).
When that confirmation happens, the market shoots up more aggressively and goes green quickly.
Swing Trading Portfolio
I bought at the same price the second time in my long-term portfolio, but my entry price for the Swing Trading portfolio was at $ 45.28.
The target price was at 50,63 which was a break of the new all-time high, and it hit the target with an 11% gain.
While I’m still holding the stock in my long-term portfolio, I’m waiting for a new opportunity for both of my portfolios.
In the image above, the price has reached the demand zone at $48, but I have no CHoD confirmation, which means there is no way I will buy a stock without confirmation, because there is a risk of forming new liquidity to sweep, and I don’t want to swim in a liquidity pool.
In fact, I would mind the creation of liquidity, because it will create a new swing high that can become my new swing high for confirmation (ChoD).
My target price will be $57.80, which is a 15% to 20% gain based on the price I buy it at.
That is all for today. I would appreciate feedback if you like this type of price action storytelling.
If there is a stock you want me to check, reply or comment below.
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Volkswagen absorbs the impact of Porsche and revises down 2026By Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades
Frankfurt — Volkswagen AG (ETR:VOW3) has announced an estimated impact of up to €10 billion on its 2026 operating profit, forcing the group to revise down its margin guidance to a maximum of 1%, from the previously announced range of 4%-5.5%. The bulk of this impact, €6 billion, corresponds to a non-cash accounting impairment linked to its 75.4% stake in Porsche, whose medium-term outlook has been affected by the contraction in demand in China and by tariff pressure in the United States. To this are added a further €2 billion in restructuring costs — including early-retirement programmes and the closure of the Osnabrück plant — as well as another €2 billion to be recorded in the second half of the year. The group has nonetheless maintained its revenue forecast at around €315 billion, compared with €321.9 billion recorded in 2025, suggesting that the deterioration responds primarily to a profitability problem rather than to business volume.
The announcement comes weeks after the approval of a transformation plan that doubles the planned workforce cuts to 100,000 jobs and halves the group's model range. The market's reaction was severe: Volkswagen shares fell as much as 7.5% during the session and closed Friday down 5.6%, while Porsche AG shares declined between 3% and 5%.
Fundamental analysis. The stock trades at a significant discount to its peers, with a P/E ratio close to 7 times and a P/BV around 0.2-0.3 times. However, a return on invested capital (ROIC) of barely 1%-2% and negative free cash flow limit the group's ability to sustain its dividend policy, whose yield stands at around 8.5%. The results due to be published on 29 October will be decisive in assessing the pace of execution of the adjustment plan.
Technical analysis. The technical deterioration had been building since 12 May, when the 200-session moving average crossed above the 100-session moving average, forming a bearish signal that has widened in recent sessions. Against this backdrop, the stock broke below the support of the 100-session moving average, at 79.675 euros, on Friday, and has deepened the correction today to 76 euros, reaching the support of the 50-session moving average, with a cumulative pullback of 6.44%.
Outlook. Unless the 79-82 euro zone is recovered, the technical bias will remain negative, with the annual low band of 69-74 euros as the decisive reference: holding this level could pave the way for a stabilisation process, while losing it would place the stock outside the range of the last 52 weeks.
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RIOT charts have it allRiot Platforms offer infrastructure for bitcoin mining and data centers. The crypto theme has been heating up for some time now, and I previously wrote about Coinbase which I will link here too. I wrote that as the theme heated up, but now it’s breaking out.
What’s really intriguing is that bitcoin itself has obviously awakened after a lengthy bear market. At the moment, it’s holding onto gains made on the recent move up to 81,000 or so.
After a lengthy basing period that saw RIOT hold the 200-day moving average (red) and the weekly cloud model, price broke out Friday from the downtrend it’s been in since late June. And that came on increasing volume, which demonstrates greater activity relative to most other days in July/August/September. Interest is growing.
Finally, the weekly stochastic oscillator and MACD charts look great. The stochastics recently turned up from oversold conditions and have plenty of room to run until reaching overbought. As for MACD, it never actually crossed below zero, which means the uptrend wasn’t broken, but just “resting”. The histogram has almost turned from red to green, which supports the thesis that the upside momentum is building. The MACD line is starting to pinch near the signal line, and a crossover would be bullish.
We need Bitcoin to breakout to really get this going, but perhaps RIOT can move first, as it already seems to be doing. If we look across big names in the theme, namely COIN and HOOD, it seems the group strength is there. I entered Friday at 22.79. 
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