Bullish Reversal Signs in Refinery Stock!PRL Analysis
Closed at 42.07 (10-07-2026)
Inverse Head & Shoulders
Falling channel breakout
Resistance breakout (38.78)
Strong bullish candle
High breakout volume
Higher low forming on the right shoulder.
If price falls back below the neckline and remains below it,
the breakout may turn into a false breakout.
Opening: SPCX August 28th 90/100/157.5/167.5 Iron Condor... for a 3.33 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 68.8/98.8). I generally don't like to goof around with IPO's early in the offing, but if I'm going to goof around, it's going to be a defined risk setup ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.33 ($333)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 6.67 ($667)
ROC at Max: 49.9%
ROC at 50% Max: 25.0%
Probability of Regretting This Later: 100%
Devastating setupMarket leader in the AI agent sector, which I already described in the previous idea
+++++
Analysis
The price is approaching earnings (Wednesday) with a clear W-formation.
The key breakout for the start of the bullish move is a close above $110, accompanied by increasing volume.
Good earnings could push it higher as early as Wednesday, while a negative report will bring the price back to retest the blue support level.
Devastating target in the $150 area, and maybe even $170 to fill the GAP.
I'd say let's set our alerts properly to maximize the loot.
Walmart May Be Trending LowerWalmart had a big run between 2022 and early 2026, but now it may be going the other way.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of peaks in February and May. That double top may signal a reversal of the preceding uptrend.
Second, the retail giant gapped lower after announcing results on May 21. It stayed below levels from the session before making another push to the downside. Prices then recovered. But is that bounce a potential bearish flag?
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. That may reflect a short-term downtrend.
Fourth, Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stayed under 50 after hitting oversold conditions. That may also be consistent with short-term weakness.
Finally, WMT is under its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. That may reflect a longer-term reversal.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Supermicro Just Revealed the Number That Could Change the StorySupermicro has released a preliminary business update that could materially change the market’s view of the company.
I opened a medium-term position at $28.94 , with the shares reacting strongly in extended-hours trading following the announcement.
The most important part of the update, in my view, is not simply the expected revenue figure. It is the combination of improving profitability and exceptional new demand.
Supermicro now expects gross margin of 15–17% , compared with its previous guidance of only 8.2–8.4%.
This is significant because margin pressure has been one of the main concerns surrounding the company. Supermicro has already demonstrated strong demand for its AI infrastructure, but investors have questioned whether that growth could translate into sustainable profitability.
For context, the company reported gross margins of 6.3% in Q2 FY2026 and 9.9% in Q3 FY2026 . A preliminary result of 15–17% would therefore represent a substantial sequential improvement.
The second major development is that Supermicro received more than $60 billion in new orders during the quarter, taking its backlog to record levels.
This gives the company considerable potential revenue visibility over the coming quarters, although the real test will be its ability to convert those orders into recognised revenue while maintaining the improved margin level.
Revenue for the quarter is still expected near the lower end of the company’s $11–12.5 billion guidance , so the update is not without risks.
Technical view
The stock is trading around a broad historical demand zone that has supported the price several times since 2023.
The RSI is also below the midpoint, suggesting the stock was not technically overbought before the extended-hours reaction.
My levels for the coming months are:
🎯 $34 — Barclays price target
🎯 $40 — Needham price target
🎯 $48 — Current Wall Street high target
These levels represent potential upside of approximately:
$34: +17.5%
$40: +38.2%
$48: +65.9%
The bullish case is based on Supermicro combining strong AI infrastructure demand with a meaningful recovery in margins.
The main risks are execution, possible order delays or cancellations, and whether the company can protect margins while delivering such a large backlog.
What matters more for Supermicro from here: the $60B+ order intake or the expected recovery in gross margin?
AAPL Under the Box — Reclaim or Breakdown?AAPL is trading below my PD-15 range, so today’s setup is about whether buyers can reclaim control or sellers continue pressing lower.
The PD-15 range comes from the previous day’s final 15-minute candle. I use that high and low as a clean decision box for the next session.
Today’s PD-15 Levels:
- PD-15 High: 328.33
- PD-15 Low: 325.99
Right now, price is below the PD-15 box, so buyers do not have clean control. If price can reclaim 325.99, I’ll watch to see if buyers can recover back toward 328.33. But the stronger bullish confirmation does not come until price reclaims the PD-15 high at 328.33.
Bullish Plan:
If AAPL reclaims 325.99, holds above it, then pushes back toward 328.33, I’ll watch for buyer recovery. A stronger bullish setup would need a reclaim of 328.33 with confirmation and volume.
If 328.33 is reclaimed and holds, the upside targets I’m watching are:
- 329.81 = Call TP1
- 331.72 = Call TP2
- 334.83 = Call TP3
Bearish Plan:
If AAPL stays below 325.99, rejects a retest, and breaks the Opening Range Low with confirmation and volume, I’ll watch for downside continuation.
The downside targets I’m watching are:
- 323.59 = Put TP1
- 321.68 = Put TP2
- 318.57 = Put TP3
The red lines above price are call targets, but they can also act as resistance.
The green lines below price are put targets, but they can also act as support.
For me, the trade is simple:
Below 325.99, sellers have pressure.
Above 325.99, buyers are trying to recover.
Above 328.33, buyers have stronger control.
I’m not predicting. I’m waiting for agreement.
If this breakdown helped, drop a boost, comment your bias, and follow for more premarket game plans.
Are you watching the reclaim or the breakdown today?
YGO — Study the Levels. Wait for Agreement. Trade with Discipline.
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I’m sharing my chart breakdown, levels, and trade plan. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.
PAEL - PSX1, PAEL formed a single top on the RSI.
2, After forming a single top on the RSI it came back down to its fib level and then started showing little bit buyer dominance.
3, Market NEVER forms a single top and always forms 2 tops so PAEL will go back to form another top. We will take that opportunity and attempt on the fib level we got.
4, Keep risk super minimal due to war these days.
NVIDIA | Momentum or DistributionAI Leadership Faces a Critical Test – Momentum or Distribution?
NVIDIA begins the week at a pivotal technical level as markets assess whether institutional investors continue accumulating AI leaders or begin rotating into other sectors. While the long-term AI narrative remains intact, short-term price action is likely to be driven by earnings expectations, valuation sentiment, and overall Nasdaq strength.
The first hour of trading could provide valuable insight into institutional positioning for the week ahead.
Key Market Drivers
🤖 Continued global investment in AI infrastructure and enterprise computing.
💻 Data center and GPU demand remain the primary long-term growth engine.
📊 U.S. earnings season could reshape expectations for the semiconductor sector.
🏦 Treasury yields and Federal Reserve outlook may influence high-growth technology valuations.
🌍 Geopolitical developments and semiconductor export policies remain key sentiment risks.
Trading Plan
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
Look for a sustained move above the opening range supported by rising volume, signaling institutional accumulation.
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold key intraday support or repeated rejection near resistance may indicate profit booking and short-term distribution.
"The biggest opportunities aren't created by headlines—they're created when institutional capital confirms the trend. Let price lead, not emotion."
Reddit is showing signs of double correctionI have posted a few charts on Reddit highlighting good zones for long entries in the stock.
The current run from March 2026 lows has been deciting a corrective structure i.e., a bull run in the overall bear trend. We have one more upmove pending in this bull run which will take reddit towards 225-250$ mark and thereafter resume its downward journey towards the 110$ levels, at which it would be a great buy.
From now till late Sep - Oct, buy reddit till 225-250$ mark. Thereafter short reddit till 110$ for it to complete the entire correction of its cycle since IPO.
MSFT: How Long Until Structure Breaks?Primary Scenario
ADJUSTMENT: We primarily expect imminent declines that should take the stock directly into our green Target Zone ($294.15–$252.08). Within this zone, an interim low should eventually form, setting the stage for a counter-move.
Alternative Scenario
ADJUSTMENT: There’s a chance MSFT could rise soon, break through resistance at $472.21, and form a high just below resistance at $562.17. However, selling pressure is then expected to increase again, targeting our green Target Zone ($294.15–$252.08) (probability: 32%).
Long-Term Outlook
The daily chart shows the path of the larger corrective move. Ultimately, further sell-offs into the blue Long-Term Entry Range ($212.18–$118.87) are expected before a sustained trend reversal is likely. However, if MSFT shows more strength in the near term than previously anticipated, price could set a new all-time high above resistance at $562.17 before the (then somewhat delayed) Long-Term Entry Range is reached later on (probability: 36%).
Home Depot: Potential DowntrendHome Depot has struggled for months, and some traders may discern a potential downtrend.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since last September. Combined with lower lows, those could suggest that sellers are active.
Second, the home-improvement chain’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has been under the 200-day SMA since early December. That may reflect a longer-term downtrend.
Third, HD ended Monday below its 21-day exponential moving average. MACD is also falling. Those signals could be consistent with short-term weakness.
Finally, the stock bottomed under $290 in May. Could traders look for a retest of that level?
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
UBL - Trade CallLast Day Closing: 474.36
Entry Level: 471.94
Risk Level (SL): 442.56
🔻 Risk: -6.23%
Expected Targets:
486.66 → 📈 +3.12%
501.34 → 📈 +6.23%
516.02 → 📈 +9.34%
530.70 → 📈 +12.45%
Time Frame: Long Term
Note: Favorable setup near the preferred buying range with limited downside risk. Maintain strict stop-loss discipline and manage position sizing accordingly.
$WULF — Support retestThe price of NASDAQ:WULF has broken out of its handle and is currently testing the support level at the 175 average. This average is holding from below, indicating a potential bullish move. The short-term average is far above, suggesting that there is still room for growth. However, it's essential to monitor the price action closely to confirm this thesis. If the support holds, we could see a continuation of the upward trend. The reasoning behind this setup is based on the idea that a break out of a handle often leads to a retest of the support level, and if successful, can lead to further gains. Not financial advice
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NIO: Double Bottom Breakout — Can Bulls Clear the $5.00### **Overview**
After establishing a solid structural floor around the **$4.75** base, NIO has successfully confirmed and executed a sharp **Double Bottom ** reversal pattern on the 1-hour timeframe.
The breakout has cleared primary local dynamic resistance, and an immediate structural retest has validated the previous resistance zone as active support. Momentum points toward a short-term continuation higher.
---
### **Key Technical Points**
* **The Breakout & Retest:** The clean surge above the **$4.90 ENTRY line** and subsequent hourly holding candles confirm that buyers have successfully flipped this key level into a protective floor.
* **Momentum Support:** The *Machine Learning RSI (Zeiierman)* indicator successfully printed a clear higher low during the second base formation, confirming a bullish shift in underlying momentum. The indicator line still has plenty of upward runway before hitting overbought extremes.
* **Risk/Reward Parameters:**
* **Invalidation / Stop Loss (SL):** $4.85 (tucked safely below the immediate consolidation breakout structure)
---
### **Trading Scenarios to Watch**
* **🐂 Bullish Case (Targeting Overhead Liquidity):** As long as hourly candles continue to close above the **$4.90** pivot, the path of least resistance remains upward. The immediate target is **TP1 at $5.01** (Risk-to-Reward: 1.81), with an extended target sitting at **TP2 at $5.11** (Risk-to-Reward: 3.81).
* **🐻 Bearish Invalidation:** A high-volume loss of the **$4.90** support level would stall immediate momentum. A further drop that breaks below **$4.85** completely invalidates this localized reversal structure.
**Are you riding this NIO breakout back above $5.00, or looking to short the resistance? Let me know your targets below!**
META failed trendline will it hold the 200 sma?$480-460 has been and still is my target despite their BS news of selling excess compute. Look at their balance sheet, cash flow is being absorbed on capex, they'll have to issue debt or raise money in the bond market to keep this going.. Lets wait and see what earnings announcement does.....
NIPH: Waiting for Confirmation After a Powerful Rally 📊 NIPH: Waiting for Confirmation After a Powerful Rally 🚀
🏛️ Fundamental Review:
📊 Business Quality:
NIPH is one of Egypt's leading state-backed pharmaceutical manufacturers, supplying a wide range of essential medicines and healthcare products to the domestic market. 🏥
✅ Strengths & Catalysts:
The company continues to deliver impressive operational growth, with quarterly revenue increasing 71% YoY and net profit rising 19% YoY. 📈
Its defensive healthcare business, strong demand for essential medicines, and government-backed position provide long-term stability. 💊
The stock also benefits from exceptionally strong retail participation, with trading liquidity reaching nearly 370M EGP during the latest session. 🚀
⚠️ Risks:
Despite strong operational growth, valuation has become stretched after the recent parabolic rally. ⚠️
Financial health also remains a concern due to the company's relatively high leverage and elevated debt-to-equity ratio. 📉
Drug pricing regulations continue to limit the company's ability to fully pass higher production costs to customers. 💰
☪️ Sharia Compliance:
❌ NIPH is currently not considered Sharia-compliant based on its financial leverage, which exceeds the acceptable thresholds commonly applied under AAOIFI and EGX33 Sharia screening methodologies. While its core pharmaceutical business is permissible, its capital structure prevents it from qualifying. ⚖️
💰 Valuation:
Operationally the company remains very strong, but both valuation and financial health appear stretched after the recent rally, reducing the margin of safety for new investors. 💎
🔍 The Pulse:
The stock completed a triangle breakout before entering a healthy consolidation phase. 📊
Following that consolidation, buyers launched a strong parabolic rally that pushed the stock to a new all-time high. 🚀
Both technical indicators and fundamental valuation now suggest that the stock is becoming extended after its impressive advance. 📈
However, the exceptional trading liquidity of around 370M EGP indicates that retail buying momentum remains extremely strong. 💰
A confirmed close above 234.30 EGP would signal that buyers are still in control and could extend the current bullish wave. ✅
A close below 219.20 EGP would be the first warning that momentum is fading and a deeper correction could begin. ⚠️
Until either level is broken, the stock may continue moving sideways while digesting recent gains. ⏳
🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
🚀 Breakout Trigger, 234.30 EGP.
A confirmed close above this level would confirm continuation of the bullish momentum.
🎯 First Target.
The stock has already exceeded most technical and fundamental targets, making any further advance dependent on sustained liquidity and continued momentum.
⚠️ First Warning, 219.20 EGP.
A close below this level would indicate weakening momentum and increase the probability of a larger pullback.
🛑 Stop Loss, 186.66 EGP.
A close below this level invalidates the current bullish structure.
🎯 The Verdict:
NIPH remains fundamentally strong with excellent revenue and earnings growth. 🏆
However, valuation and financial health are currently the weakest parts of the investment case. 📊
The recent rally has pushed both technical and fundamental indicators into stretched territory. 📈
As long as the stock remains above 219.20 EGP, the bullish structure remains intact. 🤝
A confirmed breakout above 234.30 EGP would provide the next high-probability continuation signal. 🚀
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