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There's a Chip Company Hiding Inside a Failing EV Stock.Every so often the market leaves a stock for dead in exactly the wrong place. At the floor of a long range, boring, unloved, drained of everyone who needed it to move, right as the thing is about to become something else. Rivian is sitting in that seat right now. Four years of going nowhere. A floor that will not break. And underneath the boredom, an electric-truck company that turned itself into a chipmaker and a robotics play while the crowd looked away. It is a semiconductor story that has not made its ten-times move yet, while the market has run almost every other chip name several times over. I think that is a temporary condition. I think the setup beneath it is one of the rare asymmetric bets where the risk is a single line on a chart and the reward has a comma in it.
Start with what Rivian actually is now, because the name still fools people. Most of the market files it under the failed Tesla challenger and moves on, and that filing is four years out of date. This is a company that designed its own AI chip, one that goes head to head with Nvidia’s automotive silicon, sitting inside a car that started reaching customers in June. It owns a piece of a robotics firm spun out of its own factories, building machines for the industrial floor. It has Volkswagen as its largest shareholder and Uber writing a check for a fleet of robotaxis. A chip play and a robotics play, wearing the costume of an unloved car stock, arriving at the exact moment the market is hunting for the story that comes after Nvidia. The chart says the four-year wait is ending. Look at the base.
That is the setup, and the setup is the easy part. Below is the whole case. The seven touches read for what they are. The chip measured against the field, Nvidia included. The precedent that shows what a coil like this does when it finally goes. The numbers with their honest asterisks. And the single line where this entire thesis dies. Paid readers, come with me.
Start where the pain began. Rivian went public in late 2021 at a valuation that priced a decade of perfection into a company that had barely built a truck. The chart from that day is a cliff, from roughly 180 down into the single digits, the market grinding a fantasy back toward a business. Then, somewhere around ten dollars, the fall stopped. What came next was four years of boredom, and boredom is the most underrated force in this business, because it clears a stock of everyone who needed it to move. The believers who bought the top left first, then the traders who came for the volatility, then the tourists. What remains is the range you just saw, and the handful of people still standing in it.
The Base
Draw the line. There is an ascending trendline underneath Rivian that has caught price seven times over roughly two years. Seven higher lows, each one a spot where a buyer decided this was far enough. I want to be precise about why that matters, because most people who draw trendlines have the logic upside down. A line does not get stronger with more touches. It gets weaker. Every test is a chance for the market to arbitrage the level away, to front-run it, to fade it until the edge is gone. The third touch is worth less than the second. The fifth should be worthless.
This one held seven times. And it held while the roof stayed nailed shut. Above the stock sits a shelf around 18 to 20 that has turned back every advance for the same four years. So you have a rising floor pressing into a flat ceiling, and the space between them is closing. Any trader who has watched a coil tighten knows the feeling in the room as the range narrows. Something has to give, and the geometry does not care which way.
Here is the read the geometry alone will not hand you. Watch what the floor absorbed. Over these four years Rivian diluted its shareholders again and again. It pushed its own profitability target further into the future. It carried the deadweight of an IPO price that will haunt the ticker for a generation. It traded through the worst EV tape in a decade, through a killed tax credit, through tariffs, through a market that decided electric vehicles were last year’s religion. Every one of those was a reason to break 10 dollars and keep going. The floor took all of it and did not break.
When a market refuses to fall on bad news, the news is already inside the price. The sellers who cared have sold. What is left underneath is a bid that keeps showing up at a higher low, seven times, patient, unbothered. A bid that returns to the same rising line seven times is a person with a reason. The line is only where the reason keeps showing up.
Right now, as I write this, the stock is pressing the ceiling. Seventeen and change, pressed against the 18 shelf that has rejected it for years. The coil is near its apex. This is the part of the movie where the range has to answer for itself.
I have seen this shape before. Rocket Lab wore it for over a year. A long base, a range so dull it shook out everyone who lacked the patience to hold nothing, and then the floor simply decided it would never give again. When a floor stops giving, the pressure has to escape somewhere. Eventually the roof comes off, or the roof falls in.The Turn
Every purgatory has a reason. Rivian’s reason was that the IPO sold a future the company had not yet built, and the market made it wait in the hall until the future showed up. For four years the answer to every bull was the same. Come back when the technology is real. Come back when the volume car exists. Come back when someone serious writes a check.
All three came back at once.
Start with the silicon, because it is the part that turns an EV maker into something stranger. In December, Rivian walked on stage and revealed a chip it built itself. The Rivian Autonomy Processor, RAP1. A 5 nanometer part fabricated at TSMC, built on Arm’s newest architecture, wired together by a proprietary interconnect so the company can lash more of them together as its models grow. Two of these chips sit in the autonomy computer going into the next car, and together they push around 1,600 trillion operations a second, enough to out-muscle a top-end gaming GPU while feeding 5 billion pixels a second from a suite of cameras, radar, and lidar. Rivian held that number up against a gaming card because a gaming card sells the headline. The comparison a trading desk respects runs against the chip Rivian is ripping out, Nvidia’s Orin at around 250, and the one it is aiming past, Nvidia’s Thor at roughly a thousand.
Understand what this is in market terms. For years the entire semiconductor complex ran up because everyone needed Nvidia’s silicon to think. Rivian just announced it stopped renting that brain and started building its own. This is the Apple move, the walk away from Intel, the wager that the most valuable part of the machine is the chip that governs it. Whether it works is a separate question, and I will get to the doubt. But a car company that designs competitive inference silicon does not get priced like a car company for long, once the market notices.
Then the volume car. On June 9, after two years of teasers, Rivian began delivering the R2. This is the whole game. The R1 was a 90,000 dollar toy for people who wanted the badge. The R2 starts near 58 and drops from there, aimed straight at the middle of the market where the real units live. Deliveries are rolling out in batches, two to six weeks from order to driveway. The waiting that defined this stock for four years just ended. Revenue stops being a trickle and becomes a ramp, or it does not, and you will read the answer in the delivery numbers before you read it anywhere else.
Then the checks. Two of them, both large, both from people who do not sign lightly. Volkswagen, one of the largest automakers on earth, has become Rivian’s single largest shareholder, near 16 percent and climbing, on the way to a commitment worth almost 6 billion dollars. Read the tell inside that number. Volkswagen set more than 40 billion dollars on fire trying to build its own vehicle software and failed. Then it walked across the industry and paid to use Rivian’s. When a giant that size admits it cannot build the thing itself and buys yours instead, that is a validation no spec sheet can print.
The second check came from Uber. Up to 1.25 billion dollars of investment, alongside an order for 10,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis with an option on 40,000 more, exclusive to Uber’s network, aimed at a 2028 launch in San Francisco and Miami. Size it correctly before you get excited. These robotaxis do not exist yet. They are a milestone-gated promise built around an autonomous version of a car that only just started shipping in its ordinary form, meant to roll out of a Georgia plant still under construction. The deal is real and it is enormous. It is also an IOU with a 2028 date stamped on it. Both things are true.
And the robots, where I owe you the complication, because the easy version of this story is a lie of omission. Rivian has a robotics arm called Mind Robotics, an industrial and humanoid outfit already valued near 3.4 billion dollars after barely a year, using Rivian’s own factories as its training ground. The bull tells you Rivian owns a piece of the robotics future. That part is true. Here is what the bull leaves out. Mind is a separate company that Rivian’s own CEO chairs, Rivian holds only a minority of it, and Rivian’s filings flag the arrangement as a conflict. If Mind becomes the supplier that automates Rivian’s plants, Rivian’s shareholders pay the full bill while owning a slice of the company that collects it. The robotics upside is real. It may accrue to a private company the founder also runs, more than to the public one you would be buying.
The Ledger
Now the numbers, because a thesis that cannot survive the income statement is only a story. Here the picture splits in two, and both halves are true, which is exactly why people argue about this company past each other.
Pull up the annual figures and the bull case draws itself. The loss per share has shrunk every single year, from almost 15 dollars in 2021 to 2.40 last year, with the street modeling it toward 40 cents by the end of the decade. Revenue over the same stretch went from 55 million dollars to 5.39 billion, with estimates pointing at 27 billion by 2029 as the R2 fills the factories. That is a company walking out of the wilderness. Stop reading there and you buy it with both hands.
Do not stop reading there. Management guides Wall Street on adjusted EBITDA, and in March, buried in the same filing that announced the Uber deal, Rivian withdrew its promise to reach positive EBITDA in 2027. It now guides a loss near 2 billion dollars this year, wider than last. The reason is autonomy. They spend more on self-driving than on anything else, and they decided the prize was worth pushing profitability further away. Look at the estimates on your own screen and you can see the seam. The 2026 loss per share is penciled slightly worse than 2025. The year the story got most exciting is the year the company chose to bleed a little more.
One more thing the per-share numbers hide, and it is the sort of detail that separates a desk read from a retail one. Part of that per-share improvement is arithmetic rather than progress. The share count keeps growing. Rivian’s float sits around 775 million shares and rises every time Volkswagen hits a milestone or Uber takes its stock. Spread a loss across more shares and the loss per share falls on its own, no operating gain required. If you want the figure nobody can argue with, look past the per-share gloss to the absolute dollars and the EBITDA line.
So which is it? Both. The multi-year loss curve is bending down and revenue is compounding, while management deliberately spends the next two years deferring profit to build an autonomy and robotaxi and silicon stack the market has not paid for yet. They are widening the loss on purpose to fund the bet. That is the whole bull case, and it is why the near-term ugliness is the price of the option rather than a warning.
One shadow on the ledger worth your attention. Amazon still accounts for more than half of Rivian’s automotive revenue, buying delivery vans by the tens of thousands, and Amazon has been diluted from a fifth of the company down toward a tenth without selling a share and without adding one. A single customer carrying half your top line is a strength until the day it is a risk.
The Crowd
Charts and chips and checks move a stock. Stories move a crowd, and the story around Rivian has turned in a way that shows up nowhere on a spreadsheet.
A few weeks ago Mark Rober, an engineer with an audience most networks would envy, ran a video exposing how thieves lift keyless cars. To make the point he stole a friend’s giveaway car live on stream, then made good by handing that friend a brand new Rivian to give away instead. Sit with the substitution. A few years ago the reflex gift from a beloved engineer was a Tesla, the aspirational object of the moment. Today the feel-good car, the one that offends no one at the dinner table, is a Rivian. Tesla became a political statement somewhere along the way. Rivian is what you buy when you want the electric future without the argument. That is a small signal. Small signals pointing the same direction are how sentiment turns before price does.
This is the accumulation phase in its natural habitat. The stock presses resistance while the crowd waits for proof, and the crowd always waits for proof. It wants the breakout on the screen before it believes, which means it arrives after the people who bought the seven touches on the floor. A chip story that still sits unmoved, while the market has run almost every other one, is a rare thing, and it is rare because the crowd has not finished the homework. The homework is what you are reading.
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There is one more charge packed under this coil. Around 140 to 160 million shares are sold short, near 14 percent of the float on the standard measure and higher against the tighter count, and it takes close to a week of normal volume to buy them all back. Picture that at the top of a four-year range. Every short is a forced buyer in waiting. They do not want to cover, and if the roof comes off they will have to, and their buying becomes fuel poured on the very move they bet against. A coil this tight, with this many trapped sellers beneath it, tends to resolve in a gap rather than a drift.
I owe you the other side, because a one-sided pitch is an advertisement and you did not subscribe to an advertisement. The dilution that flatters the per-share numbers is relentless and will not stop while the milestones pay out in stock. The robotaxi is a rendering until it ships from a factory still being poured. The robotics jackpot may land in a company the founder chairs on the side. Amazon leans on half the revenue. And the whole thing rests on a company that has burned 27 billion dollars since birth, now executing two of the hardest jobs in industry at the same time, a new mass-market vehicle and a self-driving stack, under a founder splitting his attention across a car company and a robot company. Any one of those can break the story. Hold both sides in your head at once. The reader who can do that is the one who does not get shaken out at the bottom of the next test.
The Line
The base is more likely the coil than the grave. Four years of the worst possible news failing to break a rising floor is the tell, and the arrival of the R2, the silicon, and two giants writing checks is the reason the coil finally has something to resolve toward. I think it breaks up. I think the seven touches were someone who did the homework early, and I think the roof comes off before it falls in.
A view without a line where you are wrong is a prayer, so here is the line. The ascending trendline is the whole thesis, and today it sits near 14.50. A weekly close beneath it ends the argument. An intraday spill does not count. A scary wick does not count. The weekly candle has to close under the line that has held seven times. If that prints, the floor was never a decision after all, and you were early to a grave. On the other side, a weekly close back above 20 clears the 18 shelf that has capped it and the last overhead from the early-2026 spike at 23, turns every trapped short into a buyer on the way up, and the box is finally open.
Until one of those two candles prints, everything in between is noise, and noise is where this stock has lived for four years. The boredom was the test. Whoever held through it earned the right to be here for the answer. Four years is a long time to hold nothing.
For four years the floor absorbed every reason to quit and gave nothing back. Now it has a reason of its own. Watch what it does with it.
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UBL (D)"Good evening, everyone, and welcome.
Today, we will discuss one of the most practical and profitable ways to participate in the market: swing trading with a holding period of 10 to 15 days. In financial markets, traders often find themselves caught between two extremes. On one hand, there is intraday trading, which requires constant screen monitoring, involves high stress, and demands split-second decision-making.
On the other hand, there is long-term investing, where one must wait months or even years to realize profits.
Swing trading—with a two-week timeframe—offers an excellent middle ground. It allows you to capitalize on stock momentum without the anxiety of overnight risks or the need to stay glued to your screen all day. To succeed within this 5-to-12-day window, you need to master three key elements: setup, execution, and exit.
1. Setup: Capitalizing on momentum. In a two-week timeframe, we don't look for cheap or beaten-down stocks hoping for a recovery; instead, we seek established trends. Your best allies here are technical indicators like the 20-day moving average and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Look for fundamentally strong stocks that are either breaking out of a consolidation pattern or pulling back slightly to a strong support level. We buy when buyers are clearly in control.
2. Execution: Risk is the only thing you can control. The secret to surviving in swing trading is simple: never enter a trade without knowing exactly where you will exit if you are wrong. Before you click 'Buy,' your stop-loss plan must be in place. For a 5-to-12-day trade, a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2 or 1:3..." ...is ideal. If you are taking a downside risk of ₹5 per share, your upside target should be at least ₹10 to ₹15. If the market moves against you, accept the small loss and move on.
3. Exit: Discipline over greed. A 5-to-12-day trade is a time-bound commitment. Institutional money moves in waves, and these waves typically last for 2 to 3 weeks before cooling off. Once your target is met, take your profit. Don't give in to greed... 50% return on a swing trade. If the stock hits your target by the 7th day, lock in the profit. If it remains range-bound and shows no movement by the 12th day, exit the trade to free up your capital.
Conclusion: Swing trading isn't about guessing the exact bottom or top. The goal is to profit from the part of the wave that offers the most gain. This requires discipline, emotional control, and strict adherence to rules. Manage your risk, respect your stop-loss, and let the trend do the work.
Your financial seatbelt: A stop-loss is a pre-determined exit strategy that acts like an insurance policy. It protects your trading capital from massive losses when the market moves against you.
Decide before you enter: Never enter a trade without setting a stop-loss; this ensures you remain in control of the risk, rather than letting your emotions control your money.
A simple rule: A stop-loss isn't a sign of failure—it is the discipline that ensures you survive today so you can trade again tomorrow. Thank you, and happy trading!
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Sedco Capital Reit Fund : From Deep Discount to Potential 14–16TADAWUL:4344
📈 From Deep Discount to Potential 14–16 Target? The Weekly Chart Tells an Interesting Story 🔥
The weekly chart suggests that price may have completed a major accumulation and recovery phase after rebounding from a deep discounted Fibonacci retracement zone of the previous bullish swing from 4.14 to 11.00.
🔍 The Price Structure
After the initial bullish move, price retraced within a descending parallel channel, eventually forming a significant swing low near 5.91 in November 2025.
Since that low, price has demonstrated strong weekly bullish momentum and steadily recovered, despite the severe geopolitical conflict affecting the region during the first half of 2026.
This resilience is an important technical observation.
⚠️ Key Resistance: 8.10–8.25
Price is now approaching a significant resistance zone around 8.10–8.25, which aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
At this stage, the market may need to cool off before continuing higher.
This could happen through:
🔹 Sideways consolidation
🔹 A controlled technical correction
🔹 A retest of previous breakout levels
🎯 Two Critical Correction Zones
If price experiences a pullback, two areas stand out:
📍 7.13 — Parallel Channel Breakout Retest
A retest of the previous descending channel breakout could provide an important support test.
📍 6.80 — 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone
This area represents the deeper Fibonacci retracement level of the latest bullish swing and could act as a potential demand zone.
🚀 Breakout Strategy
For new positions, chasing price at the current market price may carry a relatively higher risk due to the nearby resistance zone.
A confirmed breakout above 8.25, preferably followed by a successful retest and support confirmation, could provide a more favorable risk-reward entry for momentum traders.
📊 Potential Upside Targets
If the bullish structure remains intact:
🎯 Initial upside target: Around 12.00
This is where the projected AB=CD harmonic pattern could reach completion.
🔭 Extended target zone: 14.00–16.00
A Reverse Fibonacci Extension projection suggests the possibility of a larger measured move toward this region.
🧠 My View
The broader weekly market structure remains bullish, but price is now entering a major technical decision zone.
The key question is:
Will price break above 8.25 and accelerate higher, or will the market first consolidate and retest lower support levels before the next major move?
For me, 8.25 remains the key trigger level, while 7.13 and 6.80 are the important correction and accumulation zones to monitor.
Do you think this is a breakout setup—or does price need one more correction before the next leg higher? 👀
Share your view below. ⬇️
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