Why Netflix Stock Crashed After "Good" Earnings!Netflix Has Proven Streaming Works, Now It Has to Prove It Can Keep Growing
Netflix no longer has to convince investors that streaming is a profitable business
The bigger question now is whether it can keep growing as the business matures. Investors remain cautious, with the stock down more than 40% over the past year. Its Q2 FY26 results did little to change that sentiment, as shares fell about 8% in after hours trading
Last quarter, Netflix walked away from a proposed deal with Warner Bros Discovery. That decision helped it avoid an expensive bidding war and brought in a $2.8 billion breakup fee. But it also closed off a faster path to future growth. Instead, Netflix now has to drive expansion on its own through higher subscription prices, a larger advertising business, live programming and a broader mix of content
The pressure is increasing as competition for viewers becomes tougher. YouTube continues to gain market share on television, free streaming platforms like Tubi are attracting more users, and traditional media companies are leaning on live sports to keep audiences engaged. Netflix's answer is simple. Give people more reasons to open the app while protecting the strong economics that made the business successful in the first place
Netflix Q2 FY26
Income Statement
- Revenue rose 13% year over year to $12.6 billion, missing estimates by about $20 million
- Operating margin came in at 33%, down one percentage point from a year ago
- Earnings per share increased 11% to $0.80, beating expectations by $0.01
Balance Sheet
- Cash and short-term investments: $9.1 billion
- Total debt: $14.4 billion
FY26 Guidance
- Revenue is expected to grow 13% to 14%, reaching roughly $51.2 billion
- Operating margin guidance remains unchanged at 31.5%, about two percentage points higher than last year
What Stood Out?
Results were solid, but investors wanted more .. Revenue and earnings were mostly in line with expectations. Operating margins came in ahead of Netflix's own forecast, but the company only narrowed its full year guidance instead of raising it. Margins were slightly lower than last year because more content costs were recognized early in the year. Management expects margins to improve in the second half, with Q3 operating margin projected at 33%, compared with 28% a year ago. Still, Wall Street was hoping for a stronger outlook. Expected Q3 revenue growth of 12% would be Netflix's slowest pace since 2023
The advertising business is growing as planned .. Netflix reaffirmed its goal of generating about $3 billion in advertising revenue during 2026. The company expects to finalize U.S. upfront advertising commitments within the next few weeks. It is also expanding automated ad buying to Pause Ads and live programming this summer, making it easier for smaller advertisers to participate. Long term growth will depend on how efficiently Netflix can automate its advertising platform
Live events continue to deliver strong returns .. Members watched 97 billion hours during the first half of the year, up 2% from last year and slightly faster than 2025 growth. Live programming will account for just over 5% of content spending next year and only about 1% of total viewing hours. Even so, it has driven six of Netflix's ten biggest subscriber sign up days over the past five years. Live sports and special events appear to generate new customers more effectively than they generate viewing hours
Generative AI is becoming part of production .. Netflix said GenAI tools were used across roughly 300 titles in 2026, mainly during post-production. The company highlighted improvements such as larger crowd scenes, historical battle sequences, and world building that would have been difficult or too expensive to create otherwise. Management presented AI as a way to expand creative possibilities rather than simply reduce costs.
Share buybacks reached a record level .. Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of its own stock during the quarter, the largest buyback in company history. It still has $27.1 billion remaining under its authorization following April's new $25 billion program.
Free cash flow declined to $1.5 billion from $2.3 billion, largely because of taxes related to the Warner Bros. breakup fee. Management left its full year free cash flow target of roughly $12.5 billion unchanged
Netflix is sharing less engagement data .. Starting in 2027, the company will publish its "What We Watched" report once a year instead of twice and separate it from earnings announcements. Management wants investors to focus more on revenue and operating profit than viewing hours.. This follows its earlier decision to stop reporting subscriber numbers. The shift suggests Netflix wants to be valued like a mature, consistently growing business.
However, it also limits transparency. Engagement has long been one of management's most important performance metrics, and subscriber churn remains undisclosed, which is unusual for a subscription company
Becoming the Bundle
Netflix originally disrupted traditional television by offering an ad free, on demand experience. Now it is gradually bringing back some of the same features that defined the old TV model
As of May, Netflix's ad supported plan reached more than 250 million monthly active viewers, up from 190 million six months earlier. The company expects advertising revenue to roughly double to around $3 billion this year. Growing the audience is only the first step. The next challenge is turning that audience into higher advertising revenue through better targeting and improved monetization
That helps explain Netflix's approach to live sports. Rather than competing directly with ESPN or Prime Video for full season rights, Netflix is focusing on major events that attract large audiences and premium advertisers
Its new MLB agreement includes Opening Night, the Home Run Derby, and the Field of Dreams game. This season, Netflix will also stream five NFL games, including Thanksgiving Eve, Christmas Day, and a potentially decisive Week 18 matchup
This strategy allows Netflix to create must-watch events without paying for hundreds of lower-profile games. It could prove to be a more efficient way to use sports to attract subscribers and advertisers. The remaining question is whether viewers will consistently return for individual events instead of choosing platforms dedicated to sports year round
The strategy goes beyond sports. Netflix recently added TF1's live channels and on demand content directly into its French service. Instead of buying an entire media company, Netflix is positioning itself as the platform where viewers can access content from multiple providers
The company is also expanding into video podcasts, short form content, and licensed videos from publishers. Together, these efforts show that Netflix wants to become more than a destination for its original series. It wants to become an app that users open every day.
That could increase engagement without matching the high costs of premium scripted content. At the same time, it introduces new challenges. Ads, live programming, sports, podcasts, games, third party channels, and short-form video all need to fit together. If the experience feels fragmented, Netflix risks rebuilding the same crowded television bundle it once replaced.
The Battle for Attention
Recent Nielsen data highlights the growing competition. Streaming accounted for 47.6% of U.S. television viewing in April, up from 44.3% a year earlier. Cable's share continued to decline, falling from 24.5% to 21.6%
Netflix captured 7.8% of total TV viewing in April, slightly above last year's 7.5%, but below its 9% peak in December, when *Stranger Things* and Christmas Day football boosted viewing. Monthly numbers naturally fluctuate with content releases, but the broader competitive trend is becoming increasingly clear..
YouTube reached a record 13.4% share of television viewing in April. Amazon Prime Video climbed to 4.2%, helped by its NBA rights, while Tubi reached a record 2.3%. The fastest-growing competitors are not relying only on expensive scripted shows. They combine creator content, live sports, free programming, and different forms of entertainment
Netflix argues that customer satisfaction and retention matter more than total viewing hours, and that makes sense for a subscription business. Even so, engagement remains central to its strategy. More viewing creates additional advertising inventory, improves returns on content spending, reduces subscriber churn, and makes future price increases easier to justify
Netflix still has several powerful growth drivers. Its advertising business is expanding, pricing power remains intact, and operating leverage should support low double digit growth.. But with the stock trading at a premium valuation, investors want proof that the company's broader entertainment strategy is leading to higher engagement, better monetization, and stronger long-term returns. If not, Netflix could become a more complicated business without becoming a more valuable one.
Long
ALLT โ Long: Two independent systems aligned, 2.4:1 R/RSetup
I run two backtested systems on my names: a multi-timeframe EMA trend system (PF 1.87 on ALLT, 2016โ2026) and a classic Ichimoku san-yaku system โ TK cross + price above cloud + chikou clear (PF 2.44, same window). Both fired long on ALLT within days of each other (6/30 and 7/7), and both are still long. That cross-validation is the reason for this post.
Ichimoku picture (daily)
Tenkan over kijun, price above the cloud, chikou clear. Full three-role alignment
Price broke out of the June cloud tangle on volume and is holding above the kumo
Forward cloud is bullish and rising into August. Trend support building underneath (~7.60โ8.00)
The trade
Entry zone: ~8.48
Stop: 7.96 (under the kijun and the July pivot โ if we're back below there, the setup failed)
Target: 9.70 (prior resistance / R1)
R/R: ~2.4:1
Fundamental kicker
Turnaround in progress: three straight quarters of double-digit revenue growth, GAAP profitable again, 71% gross margins, SECaaS ARR +59% YoY, ~$98M cash against a ~$385M cap. FY guidance reaffirmed.
Risks
Micro-cap, thin liquidity, gaps hard through stops. Size accordingly. This is my plan, not advice. 
Long
DG - Buying the Cloud Retest After the Base ReclaimDollar General bottomed at S1 (100.59) in May and has climbed all the way back through the Ichimoku cloud, tagging R1 at 119.60. Today's 2 percent pullback is dropping price right onto the top of the cloud near 112 to 114, which is exactly where I want to buy the dip in an uptrend.
The setup:
Price is above the cloud, conversion is above base, and the future cloud is green. Bullish alignment. This dip is a retest of broken resistance as support, not a trend break, as long as the cloud edge holds.
Entry: 115.78 on the pullback.
Stop: 109.01, below the cloud and the pivot at 109.59. That is 5.8 percent risk. Lose the cloud and the long is dead.
Target: 131.49 into R2, giving a 2.32 risk-reward.
Bias: long the cloud retest, stop under 109, target the R2 zone. Clean 2.3 to 1.
Not financial advice. Manage your risk. 
Long
Sandisk (SNDK) LONG โ 1D ALMA Setup (WR 90%)โ SETUP
NASDAQ:SNDK ยท 1D ยท long only.
(Context: Sandisk โ NAND flash / enterprise SSD ยท WDC spin-off โ AI data-center storage beta, not GPU silicon.)
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / ฯ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop โ10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (SNDK 1D):
Win rate 90% ยท profit factor 6.5 ยท max drawdown 16%
Avg winning trade +27.0% ยท avg losing trade โ21.5%
Typical hold ~16ร1D bars on winners โ NAND mean-reversion grid ยท 41-trade sample
โ
โ WHY NOW
Friday US cash open โ fresh 1D ALMA long on 17 Jul 13:30 UTC ~ $1,411 .
Re-arm on the same daily Averaging template after the prior ladder stopped on the 16 Jul open (~$1,615). First lot of a new pyramid (1 of 4) into the NAND wash โ bar-close signal, not a discretionary โbuy the memory dipโ call.
Hard stop zone โ10% from fill ~ $1,270 . Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
โ
โ MACRO
Sector: SNDK = SanDisk ยท NAND flash / enterprise SSD ยท WDC spin-off โ AI data-center storage beta via NBM / LTA ASP rails; peers NASDAQ:MU , Samsung, SK Hynix, NASDAQ:WDC , $STX.
Fundamental (30d โ 18 Jul): Street still strongly Bid after a PT cascade โ Citi ~$2,500 ยท Bernstein ~$3,000 ยท BofA ~$2,500 ยท Goldman ~$2,200 ยท Wedbush ~$2,000 ยท Evercore ~$3,100 (13 Jul) on ~$62B minimum committed NBM revenue; ~18/22 Buy ยท consensus PT ~$2,100+. Company FQ4 guide ~$7.75โ8.25B rev / EPS ~$30โ33. Tape ignored the upgrades: Meta Compute scare early Jul ยท Samsung sell-the-news ยท โmemory glutโ narrative โ โ30%+ from ATH ยท ~$1,425 into 17 Jul. Next calendar: FQ4 ~05 Aug ยท Investor Day ~13 Aug.
Tape (17 Jul): Re-entry into post-flush mean-reversion after the July memory wash โ no fresh company IR print on the fill bar.
Window read: mixed โ earnings power / Street PT stack +, multiple compression and late-window tape โ.
Execution is 1D ALMA at ~$1,411 โ not an earnings preview or PT-chase trade.
โ
โ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 90% WR ยท PF 6.5 ยท avg win +27.0% vs avg loss โ21.5% ยท ~16ร1D bars โ high hit-rate daily template (41-trade sample)
- Fresh re-entry inside the 24h window after a clean template stop โ same rules that exited, same rules that re-armed
- Fundamental โ Street / NBM stack: record PT wave into mid-Jul ยท Evercore ~$3,100 on ~$62B committed NBM revenue ยท Micron โNAND very tightโ backdrop still frames the cycle โ Street earnings-power thesis intact under the wash
- ALMA โ execution + HTF stretch below: 1D Signal SHORT ยท S:5 vs SAvg:2.5 ยท OVERHEAT-S ยท 4H Signal SHORT ยท S:5 vs SAvg:3.0 ยท OVERHEAT-S ยท 3D / 1W also OVERHEAT-S โ time stretched below the band into the fill (mean-reversion fuel)
- EMA โ 4H below-session stretch: 4H Below ยท 4H Cur S:9 vs Avg S:7.0 ยท +23.4% dev โ sell-time overheated on the 4H clock into the daily add
- SMC โ demand at fill: 4H / 1D FVG Enter Bull ~ $1,411 (16 Jul) โ bid-side inefficiency tags the re-entry print (4H B69% ยท 1D B76%)
- VWAP โ support reaction: chart touch Support ~ $1,384 (from 30 Mar) with spot above โ discount reaction zone under the fill
- Weekly EMA still Above with large โDev โ slower uptrend context intact while daily mean-reverts the wash
Negative factors
- Fundamental โ tape vs Street divergence: Meta Compute / glut fears ยท Samsung contagion ยท โ30%+ from ATH ยท PT hikes ignored into ~$1,425 โ multiple compression (P/E ~60x+) dominates near-term risk/reward
- Event path: FQ4 ~05 Aug + Investor Day ~13 Aug can reprice ASP / NBM guidance either way before a typical ~16-bar hold completes
- EMA โ daily / 3D below still young vs average: 1D Below ยท 1D Cur S:5 vs Avg S:7.4 ยท +21.8% ยท 3D Below ยท 3D Cur S:1 vs Avg S:8.2 โ sell-time not mature on 1D/3D; downside can extend before the bounce completes
- SMC โ bear OB on the daily fill bar: 1D OB New Bear ~ $1,411 alongside bull FVG โ two-way housekeeping at the add, not a clean one-way reclaim
- VWAP โ overhead active levels: Active Support ~ $1,651 sits above spot (reclaim needed) ยท Active Resistance ~ $1,855 โ ceilings for any bounce
- PA: Bearish FVG formed โ supply inefficiency still in the recent tape
- TL AI: Support Break (2 bars) ยท B79% / Br21% (14 Jul) โ breakdown context still on the board
- Memory-complex headline risk (AI hardware wash / peer MU beta) can gap the daily bar
- Past backtest โ live fills; avg loss โ21.5% is wide โ size stays boring
Takeaway: the 1D ALMA strategy and 90% WR support the re-arm into a multi-TF OVERHEAT-S band with bull FVG at ~$1,411, and Street NBM/PT stack still frames the long-cycle thesis โ but glut-scare tape, young 1D/3D below-sessions, VWAP reclaim overhead, and Aug FQ4 event risk cap upside โ net read is a strategy-backed NAND wash mean-reversion into a mixed fund window, not a clean Street-PT reclaim; nominal risk stays on the โ10% hard stop / Pine exit path.
Base case: 1D ALMA holds ยท OVERHEAT-S mean-reverts ยท drift toward the ~$1,651 VWAP shelf if memory beta stabilises ahead of FQ4.
Bear case: fail 1D ALMA ยท glut / peer memory flush reasserts ยท โ10% from ~$1,411 toward ~$1,270 ยท Aug guide miss gaps the open.
Chart: NASDAQ:SNDK 1D โ ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position โ past backtest โ future results. NFA. 
Long
Macro Group Pharmaceutical (MCRO) - EGX : Overview EGX:MCRO
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout & Re-test
Macro Group Pharmaceutical (MCRO) is currently trading at 1.33 EGP, exhibiting a multi-timeframe structural breakout from a high-tight symmetrical consolidation pattern following its parabolic move in late 2025.
1. Macro View: Weekly Timeframe (1W)
Macro Geometry:
On the weekly chart, MCRO completed a long-term rounded bottom base construction (dashed orange curve) throughout 2024 and mid-2025 before launching into an explosive upward rally toward the peak at 1.68 EGP.
Consolidation & Structure:
Since early 2026, price action has been coiling within a multi-month symmetrical triangle/wedge structure. The upper descending trendline (blue) capped upside attempts around 1.50 โ 1.68 EGP, while the lower ascending support trendline (red) consistently held dips above 1.15 โ 1.20 EGP.
Current Candle Action:
The latest weekly candle printed a strong bullish impulse (+6.40%), closing at 1.33 EGP after breaking above the blue resistance trendline on significant volume (502.31M), confirming buyers are regaining structural control.
Weekly Indicators:
RSI (14): Bouncing strongly off the 50 mid-line to 58.81, reflecting fresh bullish momentum without being overbought.
MACD (12, 26, 9): Histogram bars are shifting back toward green/zero as the downward momentum flattens, hinting at a potential bullish line crossover in upcoming sessions.
2. Micro View: Daily Timeframe (1D)
Breakout & Immediate Pullback:
On the daily timeframe, price decisively broke out of the blue falling resistance line, spiking toward 1.40 EGP before executing a minor pullback to 1.33 EGP (-2.21%). This retracement represents a classic throwback/re-test of the newly broken resistance-turned-support zone (~1.28 โ 1.32 EGP).
Key Support Floor:
The ascending red trendline (~1.20 EGP) remains the main structural floor for the pattern.
Daily Indicators:
RSI (14): Elevated at 61.46 above its signal line (54.33), maintaining a firm bullish posture.
MACD (12, 26, 9): A clean bullish crossover is in play with the histogram printing positive green values (+0.015), favoring continuation after the current brief consolidation.
Trading Expectations & Key Levels
___ Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Primary Target)
Confirmation: Holding above the 1.28 โ 1.30 EGP re-test support on the daily chart.
Target 1: 1.42 โ 1.45 EGP (Intermediate swing high / supply band).
Target 2: 1.65 โ 1.68 EGP (Major 52-week high re-test).
Target 3 (Macro Extension): 1.90 โ 2.00 EGP (Full measured move of the triangle pattern).
Stop Loss / Invalidation: Daily close below 1.20 EGP (Breaching the ascending red trendline).
___ Scenario B: Deep Retracement / False Breakout
If price falls back inside the triangle and closes under 1.25 EGP, expect a drift back down to re-test the underlying red trendline around 1.18 โ 1.20 EGP before another attempt.
Summary: MCRO has validated a multi-month symmetrical triangle breakout on both the weekly and daily timeframes. As long as price holds above the 1.28 โ 1.30 EGP re-test zone, the path of least resistance is up toward 1.45 EGP and 1.68 EGP. 
Long
Long
Long
CAED: Massive Liquidity Surge Could Fuel Another Bullish Leg ๐ CAED: Massive Liquidity Surge Could Fuel Another Bullish Leg ๐
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
CAED is a specialized education company operating private schools under the CIRA Education umbrella, giving it exposure to Egypt's growing demand for high-quality private education. ๐ซ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
The company benefits from strong support and operational synergies with CIRA Education, providing stable business execution and long-term growth potential. ๐
It maintains a healthy balance sheet with more cash than debt while continuing to generate consistent earnings growth and regular cash dividends. ๐ฐ
Education remains one of the most defensive sectors in Egypt, supported by structural population growth and rising demand for private education. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
The stock trades at a very demanding valuation after its explosive rally, making it vulnerable to profit-taking if growth slows. โ ๏ธ
Its low free float can create sharp price swings and high volatility, making position management essential. ๐
The company is not a constituent of the EGX33 Shariah Index, and investors seeking Sharia-compliant investments should perform additional screening before investing. ๐
๐ฐ Valuation:
Fundamentally, CAED is a quality business, but the current valuation already reflects much of its expected growth. Further upside will depend mainly on continued earnings expansion and technical momentum. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
CAED experienced the largest liquidity inflow in its trading history, with daily turnover surging from an average of around 36M EGP to approximately 225M EGP. ๐
Such exceptional liquidity often precedes major price moves and confirms strong institutional interest. ๐ฐ
The stock may retest the upper boundary of its long-term rising channel. ๐
A successful rebound from that level could open the door for another bullish expansion. โ
If the stock closes back below the upper channel boundary, a healthy pullback becomes the more likely scenario. ๐
Any correction that remains above 90 EGP should still be considered technically healthy. ๐ก๏ธ
Breaking below 90 EGP would increase the probability of revisiting the major support zone around 75 EGP. โ ๏ธ
The upside targets are based purely on Fibonacci extensions and technical momentum rather than fundamental valuation. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Healthy Pullback Zone, Above 90.00 EGP.
Any correction that holds above this level keeps the bullish structure intact.
๐ Bullish Continuation Trigger.
A successful rebound from the upper trend channel would confirm buyers remain in control.
๐ฏ First Target, 127.00 EGP.
The first Fibonacci extension target.
๐ฏ Second Target, 153.00 EGP.
The next major Fibonacci projection.
๐ฏ Final Target, 180.00 EGP.
An extended momentum target based entirely on Fibonacci expansion.
โ ๏ธ First Warning, 90.00 EGP.
A close below this level increases the probability of a deeper correction.
๐จ Critical Support, 75.00 EGP.
Losing this support would invalidate the current bullish structure.
๐ Stop Loss, Below 75.00 EGP.
A confirmed close below the major support level invalidates the setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
CAED remains a fundamentally solid company operating in one of Egypt's strongest defensive sectors. ๐
The record-breaking liquidity inflow is a very constructive technical signal that deserves close attention. ๐
However, the stock is trading at a rich valuation, so new positions should only be considered if price confirms strength or after a controlled pullback. ๐ค
The projected upside targets are driven purely by technical momentum and Fibonacci extensions rather than fundamental fair value. ๐ก๏ธ
---
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Long
Short
ORCL: Trendline Broken, Swing Low LostโLarger Correction Ahead?For months, ORCL respected a strong rising trendline, with every pullback finding buyers before continuing higher.
That bullish structure has now changed.
Price has broken below the long-term trendline and, more importantly, has also closed below the recent swing low near 134, confirming a break in market structure.
To make matters worse, the overall price action appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders pattern, suggesting the recent weakness may be more than just a normal pullback.
๐ป Bearish Factors
๐ Trendline Breakdown
โ ๏ธ Market Structure Shift
๐ฏ Head & Shoulders Pattern
The current structure resembles a classical Head & Shoulders reversal, with a measured downside target in the low 50s (if fully completed.)
๐ Support Turned Resistance
Unless buyers quickly reclaim the breakdown levels, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
๐ฏ Bearish Scenario
โก๏ธ As long as ORCL remains below the broken trendline and recent swing low, I expect the correction to continue.
๐ฏ Target 1: 116 (Strong Intermediate Support)
๐ฏ Target 2: 95 (Major Support Zone)
๐ Extended Target: Low 50s (Head & Shoulders Measured Move)
โ ๏ธ What I'm Watching
๐ Before turning more aggressive on the bearish side, I'll be watching for:
โ
Failure to reclaim 134
โ
Rejection from the broken trendline
โ
Increasing selling volume
โ
Continued weakness below key moving averages
Those would strengthen the probability of a larger decline.
โ Bearish Invalidation
๐ข A strong daily close above 150 would invalidate this bearish thesis, suggesting the breakdown was a false move and buyers have regained control.
๐ก For now, the technical picture has shifted strongly in favor of the bears. Unless ORCL quickly reclaims its lost support levels, the path of least resistance appears lower, with 116 and 95 as the first key downside objectives before the larger Head & Shoulders target comes into focus. 
Short
NINH: Massive Liquidity Breakout Signals a New Bullish Phase ๐ NINH: Massive Liquidity Breakout Signals a New Bullish Phase ๐
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
NINH is one of Egypt's leading private healthcare providers, operating a modern hospital with strong exposure to the country's growing demand for high-quality medical services. ๐ฅ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
The company continues to deliver solid financial performance, with Q1 2026 net profit rising 19.3% and revenue increasing more than 9% year-over-year. ๐
Its strong balance sheet, healthy cash generation, and defensive healthcare business make it one of the highest-quality names in the sector. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
Future growth depends on expanding hospital capacity, while imported medical equipment and regulatory requirements remain important operational risks. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation:
Despite its recent rally, NINH still offers attractive long-term value supported by strong earnings growth and a high-quality healthcare business. ๐
โ
Sharia Compliant.
๐ The Pulse:
Following the stock split, NINH entered a healthy consolidation phase before building a new bullish setup. ๐
The stock is now showing several strong technical signals that support higher prices. ๐
Liquidity has expanded dramatically, with daily turnover increasing from an average of around 28M EGP to nearly 250M EGP, confirming strong institutional interest. ๐ฐ
The price successfully broke above the triangle pattern and closed above the key resistance at 18.88 EGP. โ
A bullish Fair Value Gap and a strong momentum candle into the weekly close further reinforce the positive outlook. ๐
Any controlled pullback toward the Fibonacci retracement levels could provide an attractive buying opportunity. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Entry Zone, Fibonacci Pullback Levels.
Any healthy retracement toward the Fibonacci support area may provide an attractive entry opportunity.
๐ Breakout Trigger, 18.88 EGP.
Holding above this former resistance confirms the bullish breakout.
๐ฏ First Target, 24.30 EGP.
My estimated fair value.
๐ฏ Second Target, 28.00 EGP.
The measured target from the completed triangle breakout.
๐ Stop Loss, 18.88 EGP.
A confirmed close back below this key support invalidates the current bullish setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
NINH remains one of the strongest healthcare stocks on the Egyptian Exchange. ๐
The combination of outstanding liquidity, a confirmed triangle breakout, and strong momentum significantly improves the technical outlook. ๐
Buying controlled pullbacks toward Fibonacci support offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity while targeting 24.30 EGP and 28.00 EGP. ๐ค
Risk remains well defined with a close below 18.88 EGP serving as the technical stop-loss. ๐ก๏ธ
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Long
SNDK:From "Buy the Dip?" to Confirmed Head & Shoulders Reversal?In my previous analysis, I pointed out that SNDK was beginning to lose its bullish structure, with the rising trendline breaking down, the Daily EMA20 turning into resistance, and bearish divergence warning that momentum was fading.
Since then, the bearish story has become much clearer. SNDK has lost over 30% since then.
What initially looked like a simple trendline breakdown has now developed into a textbook Head & Shoulders reversal, complete with a neckline breakdown and retest.
The bulls have clearly lost control for now.
๐ป Bearish Factors:
๐ Trendline Breakdown and Reteset
๐ Head & Shoulders Breakdown Confirmed
๐ Neckline Retest
Price Closed below daily EMA89
๐ Market Structure Shift
The sequence of Higher Highs and Higher Lows has been interrupted, increasing the probability of a larger corrective phase.
โ ๏ธ Bearish Momentum
The earlier bearish divergence has now started playing out as momentum continues to weaken.
๐ฏ Bearish Scenario
โก๏ธ As long as SNDK remains below the broken neckline, I continue to favor the bearish case.
๐ฏ Target 1: 1250(0.618 Fibonacci Golden Pocket)
๐ฏ Target 2: 950(0.786 Fibonacci Retracement / Major Support)
๐ Extended Target: If selling pressure accelerates, the full Head & Shoulders measured move remains in play with a target near 620
๐ข Where Bulls May Fight Back
There are still important demand zones below current price.
๐ก๏ธ 1250 aligns with the Golden Pocket (61.8% retracement) and a previous support zone, making it the first area where buyers could attempt a meaningful rebound.
๐ก๏ธ Below that, the Daily EMA200 near 900โ950 provides another major dynamic support coinciding with Fib 78% that shouldn't be ignored.
โ Bearish Invalidation
๐ข A decisive daily close back above the Head & Shoulders neckline, followed by a successful retest as support, would invalidate this bearish thesis and suggest the breakdown was a false move.
๐ก One technical signal can fail. Two deserve attention. But when a trendline breakdown, EMA20 loss, Head & Shoulders breakdown, neckline retest rejection, and weakening momentum all align, the probability shifts decisively in favor of the bears.
Now the question is no longer whether the trend has changed... but how deep this correction can go. Short 
ORWE: Positive Momentum Builds as Breakout Setup Takes Shape ๐ ORWE: Positive Momentum Builds as Breakout Setup Takes Shape ๐
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
ORWE is the world's largest machine-woven carpet manufacturer and one of Egypt's strongest export-oriented industrial companies, generating most of its revenue from international markets. ๐
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
The company delivered an outstanding Q1 2026, with net profit surging 67% year-over-year while transforming its balance sheet from a net debt position into a net cash position. ๐
Its strong free cash flow generation, healthy dividend yield, and dominant global market share continue to strengthen the long-term investment story. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
The business remains exposed to global consumer spending, particularly the U.S. housing market, while fluctuations in raw material prices and manufacturing costs could pressure margins. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation:
Despite its recent recovery, ORWE remains attractively valued for a company with this level of profitability, cash generation, and dividend income. ๐
โช๏ธ Sharia Compliance:
โ
Sharia Compliant.
ORWE is currently a constituent of the EGX33 Shariah Index, indicating that it has passed the Exchange's Sharia screening methodology.
๐ The Pulse:
ORWE is one of the strongest fundamentally driven stocks on the EGX, with its short-term performance largely influenced by U.S. interest rate expectations. ๐
As long as the price remains above 23.00 EGP, the current bullish trend remains intact. ๐ช
The first important resistance stands at 24.00 EGP. ๐
A confirmed close above this level would likely trigger the next bullish leg. ๐
The technical picture continues to improve, with multiple indicators showing positive momentum ahead of a potential breakout. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Trend Support, 23.00 EGP.
Holding above this level keeps the current bullish structure intact.
๐ Breakout Trigger, 24.00 EGP.
A confirmed close above this resistance signals the continuation of the uptrend.
๐ฏ First Target, 27.50 EGP.
The next major technical resistance.
๐ฏ Second Target, 28.80 EGP.
My estimated fair value.
๐ฏ Final Target, 30.60 EGP.
A retest of the all-time high.
๐ Stop Loss, 21.66 EGP.
A confirmed close below the 200-day Moving Average invalidates the bullish setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
ORWE remains one of the highest-quality industrial and export companies on the Egyptian Exchange. ๐
The technical structure continues to improve while the fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. ๐
A confirmed breakout above 24.00 EGP would provide a strong buying signal with upside potential toward 27.50 EGP, 28.80 EGP, and eventually the all-time high near 30.60 EGP. ๐ค
Risk remains well defined with a stop below the 200-day Moving Average at 21.66 EGP. ๐ก๏ธ
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Long
Long
Long
Long
LONG STLD - Bounce at Weekly Fib 0.618 + RSI(2) Reversal ๐ ENTRY: $235.34
๐ **STOP LOSS:** $210.00 (Risk: $25.34)
๐ฏ **TAKE PROFIT:** $286.00 (Reward: $50.66)
๐ R:R RATIO: ~1:2.0
๐ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (The Signal):
Triple Confluence Zone: STLD is currently bouncing from a critical support area. The price has retraced to the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 level, which coincides with a structural weekly support zone. This is further confirmed by a bullish RSI(2) reversal signal on the daily chart โ the same setup that has worked consistently in previous trades.
Technical Boundaries: The stock has established a clear support floor at $217.98** and resistance at **$240.92, with recent price action showing a series of higher lows over the past few weeks, indicating a gradual uptrend.
52-Week Range: The stock sits at **$235.34**, well within its **$119.89 โ $288.74** yearly range. The pullback from the $288.74 high has erased a notable portion of recent gains and put near-term technical support to the test.
Moving Averages: The 50-day MA sits at ~$245.37** and the **200-day MA at ~$188.78. My stop loss at $210.00 is placed safely below the 50-day MA and above the 200-day MA, giving the trade room to breathe while protecting against a breakdown.
Key Resistance: The $288.74 52-week high is the primary hurdle. A breakout above this level would open the door to new all-time highs.
**Target at $286.00**: Positioned just below the 52-week high ($288.74) and approaching the highest analyst target of $310, capturing the full upside of the technical and fundamental setup.
๐ FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (The Catalyst):
STLD reports Q2 2026 earnings BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN ON MONDAY, July 20, 2026 โ this is the primary catalyst.
The company provided guidance on June 17, 2026:
โ
EPS Guidance: $3.51 โ $3.55 per diluted share
โ
This represents a +26% sequential increase from Q1 2026 EPS of $2.78
โ
And a **+77% YoY increase** from Q2 2025 EPS of $2.01
What Wall Street expects:
Firm EPS Estimate
Consensus $3.62 โ $3.66
Revenue Estimate ~$5.57B (+~22% YoY)
The Growth Story:
โ
Robust steel demand and expanding metal margins are driving significantly stronger anticipated profitability in steel operations
โ
Record Q1 2026: Strong financial results with record steel shipments
โ
Rapid progress in aluminum operations: Two of three aluminum lines are already operational, with the third expected in July
โ
Strong order backlog: Steel fabrication order backlog is ~40% higher than the prior year, providing visibility into late 2026 and 2027
Analyst Sentiment (Bullish):
Firm Rating Price Target
Consensus (12 analysts) Buy $271.33
Highest Target โ $310
Lowest Target โ $221
FactSet (12 analysts) โ $270.00
The average price target of ~$271 implies an ~15% upside from current levels.
Key Dates:
Earnings Release: Monday, July 20, 2026 (before market open)
Conference Call: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET
๐ฏ TRADE STRATEGY:
Entry at $235.34: Entering at the bounce off the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 level, confirmed by the RSI(2) reversal signal.
SL at $210.00:** Placed safely **below the 50-day MA (~$245) and above the 200-day MA (~$188), protecting against a breakdown while allowing for normal pullback volatility.
**TP at $286.00:** Positioned just below the 52-week high ($288.74) and approaching the highest analyst targets ($310), capturing the full upside of the fundamental setup.
โ ๏ธ RISK MANAGEMENT:
Earnings risk: This is a binary event. The company already provided guidance ($3.51โ$3.55) which is slightly below the current consensus ($3.62โ$3.66). While the guidance has been known since June 17, the market may still react if results fall short of expectations.
JPMorgan cut its price target to $256 from $262 on July 15, adjusting targets in the steel group as part of a Q2 earnings preview.
Technical caution: The stock has shown significant volatility, with a pullback from $288.74 highs.
Valuation: The stock trades at a forward P/E of ~12.7x, which is reasonable but not cheap.
๐ฌ What are your thoughts? Is anyone else watching this Fib 0.618/RSI(2) bounce for the earnings run?
โ ๏ธ DISCLAIMER:
This is NOT financial or investment advice. This post reflects my personal opinion and analysis based on publicly available information. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including the potential loss of your entire capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. I am not responsible for any losses incurred. 
Long
