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Alibaba's Cheap AI, Expensive ComebackNYSE:BABA
Alibaba (BABA): Down 30%, Loaded With AI Upside - Is a Parabolic Rally Next?
Alibaba is positioned for an extraordinary comeback, and with the right technical confirmation, this could become one of the most compelling setups in the market right now. The stock being down roughly 30% over the past six months makes it, in our view, one of the highest-quality undervalued AI exposures available today.
On the technical side, the stock recently bounced off its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior impulse move, around the $92 level.
As of right now, price is running into a triple confluence of resistance: the upper bound of the descending channel it's been trading within since November 2025, the 200-day EMA, and a large horizontal resistance carried over from a multi-year price consolidation. If price can close a weekly candle above all three, that would represent one of the strongest confirmations for a new parabolic rally in Alibaba. A minor resistance may show up near $145, but in our view there's considerably more room to run beyond that level. Momentum is also building on the MACD, adding further weight to the bullish case.
The fundamentals give this technical setup real teeth. Alibaba Cloud revenue accelerated 38% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, with AI-related products now accounting for 30% of external cloud revenue, and Morgan Stanley, which named Alibaba a top AI pick among Chinese tech giants, expects that growth to accelerate further, to 42% in the current quarter and 45% for the full fiscal year. Management's own five-year target is to push cloud and AI revenue past $100 billion in external revenue. A major overhang was also just cleared: Alibaba resolved a $600 million legal dispute with U.S. authorities in a settlement announced July 1, removing a source of uncertainty that had been weighing on investor confidence.
The bigger story behind the AI angle is cost. Chinese AI labs, Alibaba's Qwen among the leaders, have driven inference costs down dramatically versus their U.S. counterparts, in some cases by 90% or more, using techniques like sparse mixture-of-experts architectures and aggressive context caching.
The practical result: as U.S. companies face ballooning AI compute bills, a growing number are routing routine workloads to cheaper Chinese models and saving the expensive frontier models only for tasks that truly need them. It's the AI equivalent of not needing a Ferrari to pick up groceries , you don't need the most expensive model on the market for every task, just the one that's good enough for the job at a fraction of the cost. That dynamic plays directly to Alibaba's strength as both a leading low-cost model provider and the cloud infrastructure those workloads run on.
Multiple signals are lining up here, the Fibonacci bounce, accelerating cloud/AI growth, a cleared legal overhang, and a structural cost advantage in the global AI race. We're watching for that weekly close above the triple resistance confluence before treating this as confirmed, until then, it's a high-conviction setup, not yet a trade. 
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US Banks: Reading the Reaction to EarningsEvery earnings season there is an understandable temptation to focus on whether a company beat analyst expectations. Earnings per share, revenue and guidance all matter, but they rarely tell the whole story. Once the numbers have been released, the market immediately begins answering a different question: were those results already reflected in the share price?
The quickest way to answer that question isn't by reading another earnings report. It's by studying the price action. This week's earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs provide two excellent examples of why the market's reaction often reveals more than the headline numbers themselves.
The Opening Move Isn't Always The Final Verdict
One of the easiest mistakes to make during earnings season is assuming the first move after the opening bell will define the day.
In reality, the opening reaction often reflects a battle between short-term traders taking profits, investors repositioning portfolios and institutions digesting new information. It can take several hours before the market reaches a clearer consensus.
JPMorgan demonstrated that perfectly.
Despite reporting another strong quarter, the shares initially traded lower before buyers gradually regained control throughout the session. By the closing bell, the stock had completely reversed the early weakness, producing a large bullish engulfing candle and finishing back at swing highs.
The earnings report didn't change during the day.
The market's interpretation of those earnings did.
JPMorgan Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Rather than focusing solely on the earnings beat, the more useful observation is how quickly buyers absorbed the initial selling pressure. The recovery back towards the highs suggests the market remained comfortable paying premium valuations despite an early bout of profit taking.
Strong Results Don't Always Produce The Same Price Action
Goldman Sachs produced a very different reaction.
Instead of opening weak before recovering, the shares immediately attracted buyers following another impressive set of results. The stock gapped higher, strengthened throughout the trading session and broke above previous swing resistance before closing near the day's highs.
Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs delivered excellent quarters.
The difference wasn't the quality of the earnings.
It was how buyers responded once trading began.
This is an important distinction because earnings season isn't simply about whether companies beat forecasts. Positioning, expectations and investor sentiment all influence how the market chooses to respond after the announcement has been released.
Goldman Sachs Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Unlike JPMorgan's recovery session, Goldman Sachs displayed immediate institutional demand. The breakout above previous resistance suggests buyers were prepared to build on the existing uptrend rather than waiting for further confirmation.
Read The Price, Not Just The Report
Bank of America delivered another useful reminder of this principle. Like JPMorgan, the shares initially weakened before recovering strongly into the close, reinforcing the idea that the opening reaction is not always the market's final verdict.
Perhaps that's the biggest lesson from the opening week of earnings season.
Markets don't reward companies simply for producing good results. They reward companies that exceed the expectations already reflected in their share price, and the easiest way to judge whether that has happened is often through the price action itself.
A stock that recovers from early selling to finish near its highs tells a very different story from one that gaps higher before fading into the close. Likewise, a stock that breaks to fresh highs immediately following an earnings release suggests buyers are prepared to continue paying higher prices despite already elevated expectations.
For traders, those subtle differences often provide more useful information than the earnings headlines themselves. Learning to read the market's reaction rather than simply the company's results can offer a valuable insight into institutional sentiment, helping distinguish between a positive earnings report and a genuinely bullish market response.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SpaceX's Starts to Trend Lower as Post-IPO Slump ContinuesSpaceX has slipped below the level where shares first began trading, extending a sharp reversal from last month's post-IPO rally. While the headlines remain mixed, the price action suggests the market is beginning to place greater emphasis on execution than ambition.
The IPO Narrative Begins to Evolve
The first few weeks following a high-profile IPO are often driven more by expectation than evidence. In SpaceX's case, investors were buying into a long-term vision centred around reusable launch technology, AI infrastructure and orbital data centres. That optimism helped propel the shares almost 50% above their opening trade within days of listing.
Over the past three weeks, however, the tone has started to change.
Supportive developments, including SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 and regulatory progress towards the next Starship flight, have struggled to generate sustained buying. Instead, the conversation has increasingly shifted towards profitability, execution and whether the company's longer-term ambitions can justify its valuation.
That change in focus is often worth paying attention to. Markets rarely abandon a growth story overnight. More commonly, confidence begins to fade when positive news no longer produces positive price action.
Support Gives Way
The four-hour chart now reflects that shift in sentiment.
Following the initial post-IPO rally, SpaceX spent almost three weeks repeatedly finding demand around its opening trading price, establishing a clear area of support. This week's break below that level changes the technical picture. Former support now becomes the first area buyers need to reclaim, while the sequence of lower highs established since the June peak remains firmly intact.
With the opening price now surrendered, attention naturally shifts towards the official IPO price. There is no guarantee buyers will step in at that level, but it now becomes the next obvious historical reference point after much of the post-listing optimism has already been unwound.
SPCX Four-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The one-hour chart helps refine that picture.
Price continues to trade beneath both the 9 and 21-period exponential moving averages, while every recovery over the past week has struggled to develop into anything more than a brief bounce. Rather than seeing signs of panic selling, the decline has remained relatively orderly, suggesting supply continues to emerge on rallies instead of through outright capitulation.
That leaves the former opening price as the first level to watch. A sustained move back above it would suggest buyers are beginning to reject the breakdown. Until that level is reclaimed, current price action continues to reflect seller control, with recent rallies presenting as retracements within the existing structure rather than confirmed reversals. The official IPO price sits below as the next chart reference point.
SPCX One-Hour Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Long
It's a time for PAYPAL - 23% potential profitOn the 4H chart of PYPL, the price appears to be forming a potential local bottom around the $44 area after a prolonged downtrend. The stock is holding above a key support zone, while the RSI remains in a neutral range following previous oversold conditions, which may indicate growing potential for a bullish rebound.
In addition, the price is starting to stabilize near the short-term moving average, and each recent bullish reaction is creating higher lows. If the stock manages to break above the $46–47 resistance zone with stronger volume confirmation, the market could initiate a move toward $50 and potentially continue higher toward the $55 level.
The $55 target looks technically achievable because:
it aligns with a previous major resistance zone,
it would represent a recovery above the 50-period moving average,
it offers approximately +23% upside from current price levels.
The key condition for the bullish scenario is holding the $43–44 support area. As long as this zone remains intact, momentum may gradually shift in favor of buyers.
Potential TP: 55 USD
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately before making investment decisions. 
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Arista - Every GPU in the World Needs This Stock (ON SALE!!)ANET — 20% Correction, Unbroken Thesis | Breakout Retest at Key Confluence
NYSE:ANET has been trading in a well-defined long-term ascending channel, consistently respecting both boundaries. After testing channel support in April 2025 it launched a powerful bull run, peaking in October 2025. A multi-month consolidation followed before price broke out of the range. Classic pattern, it then retraced 20%+ to retest the breakout level.
That retest is happening right now at a triple confluence:
→ Horizontal support - former resistance turned support
→ Bollinger Band Basis - 20MA converging at exactly the same level
→ Ascending channel structure intact beneath
Support is holding. If it confirms we take a position.
Setup:
Entry $140-150 (confirmed rebound only) | Stop $125 (weekly close) | Target $260-290 (upper channel) | Next support if fails: $110-115
Probabilities:
🟢 Support holds → channel top — 60%
🟡 Consolidation at support — 20%
🔴 Breakdown → $110-115 — 20%
Why did it correct 20%?
Not fundamentals - sentiment and positioning.
The stock had already rallied 87% in a year and 34% in a single month. An impossibly high bar. Q1 2026 actually beat estimates, revenue $2.71B vs $2.62B expected, up 35% YoY, record operating cash flow of $1.69B. The CEO called it the best demand environment of her career. Yet the stock fell 14% on earnings day.
Why? Supply chain constraints on wafers, memory, and optical components are pressuring near-term margins. And guidance, while raised to $11.5B for the full year, fell short of the inflated expectations baked into the valuation. Classic sell the news after a parabolic run. The broader AI sentiment correction did the rest.
The business did not break. The multiple did.
Why could it rebound?
After the correction Arista trades at ~30x forward earnings, back to its historical average. The premium is gone. What remains is a company with $8.9B in contractual purchase commitments, AI networking revenue doubling to $3.5B in 2026, and $700B in hyperscaler AI capex flowing directly through its order book. Supply constraints are temporary. Demand is structural.
Google is reportedly becoming a significant new customer, which would reduce the Microsoft/Meta concentration risk that has been a persistent concern. The new XPO product delivers 8x bandwidth at 75% fewer racks, purpose-built for exactly the AI data centres being constructed right now.
53% of analysts rate it Strong Buy. Zero sells.
Confirmation signal: Weekly close above $155 on elevated volume.
Discipline over anticipation, we wait for confirmation before entering. Long 
IBM (D) — the 25% crash lands on major supportNYSE:IBM
IBM comes into this session after one of the most violent sell-offs in its recent history, a drop of close to 25% that carries it from the 290 area to the current close at 217.07, all on volume that runs five times its daily average. That gap does not fall into thin air, it lands right on a structural support confluence, so this reads as a capitulation rather than a simple broken trend. On the daily timeframe price trades below the entire moving average stack, with the EMA 9 (275.44) and the EMA 20 (276.51) above the EMA 50 (268.04) and those over the EMA 100 (263.90) and the EMA 200 (262.64), a stack that has not reacted to the gap yet and stands as a distant ceiling. Momentum follows the fall. The MACD has turned to a bearish cross with its main line (2.12) below its signal (6.43) and a negative histogram, and the TRIX confirms the shift with its own downward cross. The fast stochastics have collapsed, with the 5 period at 12 and the 14 at 43, while the RSI 2 prints an extreme oversold reading (2.26) and the RSI 14 leans on the edge (30.35). The nuance comes from flow. The daily A/D still keeps its fast line (39.98) above the slow one (24.23) with a positive histogram, a sign that months of accumulated flow have not flipped in a single candle.
Monthly Analysis. On the larger timeframe the underlying structure is still constructive despite the damage. Price holds above the monthly EMA 50 (206.26), one of the references that defines the primary trend, and well above the EMA 100 (167.32) and the EMA 200 (130.96). The monthly candle is a huge range with a wide lower wick, reflecting that the drop found buyers near the lows. The monthly MACD keeps both lines positive even as the histogram begins to turn, and the monthly A/D remains at very high accumulation levels, with the fast line (81.69) just below the slow one (86.36), meaning an underlying flow that is only beginning to lose momentum. The monthly RSI 14 stays neutral (46.58). This is the frame that supports the idea that this is a severe correction inside a larger structure still alive.
Weekly Analysis. The intermediate timeframe is where the battle is fought. The sell-off pierced the weekly EMAs 9, 20, 50 and 100 in one move, clustered between 243 and 260, but price braked right on the weekly EMA 200 (209.29), the line that separates structural health from deep deterioration. The close at 217.07 leaves a narrow margin over that average, with the candle low (213.22) nearly touching it. The weekly MACD still keeps its histogram positive, a sign that the prior bullish impulse is not fully broken, and the weekly TRIX holds the fast line over the slow one. The warning comes from flow. The weekly A/D has already turned negative, with the fast line (-45.24) below the slow one (-19.52), which means the medium term has entered distribution. The picture is that of a critical support defended for now, but with the clock running.
4-Hour Analysis. The tactical timeframe reflects the short-term exhaustion. Every stochastic sits in oversold territory, with the 14 period and the 5 below 13, and the RSI 2 prints a near-absolute low (0.94) with the RSI 14 at 21.56. The 4-hour A/D already works in negative, consistent with the recent selling pressure, but the last candles show stabilization between 216 and 220 rather than direct continuation lower. That is the reading that suggests a first technical reaction may be close, as long as the 213 zone holds.
IBM is one of the most veteran technology infrastructure companies in the market, with a business that blends hybrid software, consulting and its historic systems franchise, and with enterprise artificial intelligence and the hybrid cloud as the axes of its growth narrative. A drop of this magnitude in a single session, paired with volume that runs five times the average, reflects an abrupt repricing of expectations by the market rather than a solvency problem. The move erases months of gains at once and sends the quote back to levels seen at the start of the year. For the technical thesis what matters is that this repricing has driven price precisely into the zone where the higher timeframe kept its supports, which turns the coming closes into the test of whether the market considers the punishment enough.
Key levels:
- Immediate resistance: 226-230 (breakaway gap and first target)
- Intermediate resistance: 242-243 (prior supply zone)
- Major resistance: 256-262 (long daily averages)
- Origin of the sell-off: 285-308 (supply of the breakdown)
- Immediate support: 215-217 (reference demand zones)
- Structural support: 209 (weekly EMA 200)
- Primary support: 206 (monthly EMA 50)
- Lower support: 185 (next protected structure)
Setup Rating — 3/5 ⭐⭐⭐⭒⭒ (Technical bounce with very clear structural support and extreme oversold, but with the short-term trend broken and medium-term flow turned to distribution)
✅ Positive factors:
- Major support confluence between 206 and 217, with the weekly EMA 200, the monthly EMA 50 and the demand zones coinciding
- RSI 2 at an extreme oversold reading on both the daily and the 4-hour
- Monthly A/D still in a high accumulation zone, with underlying flow intact
- Daily A/D with the fast line still above the slow one despite the fall
- Capitulation volume, typical of seller-exhaustion zones
- Primary monthly structure intact above the EMA 50
⚠️ Cautions:
- Simultaneous loss of the whole daily average stack in a single candle
- Weekly A/D already turned to distribution, with the fast line below the slow one
- Daily MACD and TRIX in a bearish cross, short-term momentum clearly negative
- Breakaway gaps often act as resistance on the first attempts
- Abrupt repricing of expectations that may need time to build a base before a reliable floor
👍 As long as the 213 to 206 zone holds on closes, the oversold extreme favours a technical reaction toward the 226 to 230 gap. Clearing that band would open the path to the 242 to 243 supply block, with the long daily averages between 256 and 262 as the larger target of a more ambitious recovery. The support from the monthly and daily A/D backs this scenario as long as price does not lose the structural support.
👎 A weekly close below 206 would break the support confluence and confirm the weekly A/D turn to distribution, leaving price without references down to the 185 zone and, lower still, toward the 167 of the monthly EMA 100. It would not be an invalidation of the business, but a deeper correction that would need time to build a base before any attempt at a floor. Above 206, every drop remains a test of support inside a larger structure still alive.
At which level would you consider a first entry, or would you rather wait for the support to confirm? 👇 
Long
AMOC - EGX: Overview update
1. Price Action & Structural Support
The Double Bottom / Key Support Test: The stock has established a strong horizontal support zone around 7.68 – 7.70 EGP. It tested this area in late April/early May and successfully retested it in late June, creating a solid base.
Trendline Breakout: The blue descending trendline, which governed the correction from the May peak (~9.10 EGP), has been clearly broken to the upside.
Current Position : The stock is currently trading at 8.18 EGP, successfully holding above the minor psychological level of 8.00 EGP after clearing the trendline.
2. Momentum Indicators
RSI (14) : The Relative Strength Index dropped close to the oversold boundary (30) during the late June dip and has since recovered strongly, currently pointing upward around the 50-60 mid-range. This indicates that buying momentum is returning without the stock being overbought yet.
MACD (12, 26, 9): There is a clear bullish crossover below the zero line that occurred in late June. The MACD line (blue) has crossed above the signal line (orange), and the histogram has turned positive (green bars expanding upward), confirming a shift from a bearish to a bullish regime.
Technical Outlook
The chart shows a classic reversal setup. The successful defense of the 7.68-7.70 support zone, combined with a descending trendline breakout and confirming bullish momentum on both the RSI and MACD, favors the upside.
As long as the price sustains daily closes above the 8.00 EGP area, the immediate path of least resistance is toward the 8.60-8.70 region, with an extension potential back toward the 9.10 swing high.
Level Type Price (EGP) Significance
Immediate Support 8.00 Psychological level and recent breakout retest zone.
Major Support (Stop Loss) 7.68 – 7.70 Crucial structural floor; a daily close below this invalidates the bullish setup.
First Target / Resistance 8.50 – 8.70 Intermediate peak zone from late May.
Major Target 9.10 The May swing high.
Ultimate Target 9.90 The long-term resistance level marked on your chart.
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