Progressive (PGR) LONG — 1W VWAP Setup (WR 70%)█ SETUP
NYSE:PGR · 1W · long only.
VWAP Swing Strategy: swing pivot 5 · 2 consecutive bars · min VWAP age 0 entry / 10 exit on chart. One full position per signal — no scale-in or averaging ladder. No hard % stop — long entry on Touch VWAP Low, exit on Touch VWAP High (active Resistance) when min-age met.
Strategy Tester (PGR 1W):
Win rate 70% · profit factor 5.6 · max drawdown 67%
Avg winning trade +19.7% · avg losing trade −8.3%
Typical hold ~23×1W bars on winners — P&C insurer weekly VWAP swing after a post-earnings flush
█ WHY NOW
Fresh 1W VWAP Swing entry on the 20 Jul 13:30 UTC weekly bar close ~ $207.97 — single full leg into the post-print wash, not a scale-in refill and not a discretionary “buy the gap.”
June/Q2 release on 15 Jul gapped the name ~−9% off the mid-Jul peak (~$234 → ~$205 zone). This weekly strategy waited for bar-close Touch VWAP Low — not the headline day itself.
No fixed −10% stop on VWAP Swing. Exit when price tags the next active swing-VWAP Resistance (Touch VWAP High) once min-age is met — script path, not a TP ladder.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: Progressive = US personal-auto / P&C leader — premium growth (NPW/NPE), policies in force, and combined-ratio quality drive the equity more than index beta.
Tape (15–20 Jul): Q2 headline EPS held, but June combined ratio slipped to 90.0 and the tape sold the quality-of-earnings / soft-pricing debate (~−9.4% on the print day); Street cut several PTs into the wash while PiF still printed +7%. Execution is 1W VWAP Swing (touch-in / touch-out), not an earnings or PT forecast.
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█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- Tester skew: PF 5.6 · avg win +19.7% vs avg loss −8.3% on the weekly template — fat right tail relative to the loss side even at 70% WR
- Fresh weekly entry ~$208 into the post-earnings flush — reaction long after a one-day −9% print, not a chase into the $234 high
- SMC — 1W: FVG Enter Bull tagged ~ $207.95 on the 13 Jul weekly bar (bounce hist. ~62%, n≈289) — demand pocket sits on the fill zone
- SMC — 3D / 4H wash ladder: FVG Enter Bull prints into the 15–16 Jul low zone (~$204–208) — bid-side inefficiency under the entry
- ALMA — 1D: LONG · L:2 vs LAvg:3.6 — young above-band on the daily clock (not OVERHEAT-L)
- PA: Fractal Low formed into the wash — local swing low prints with the weekly entry
Negative factors
- EMA — execution ladder all Below, sessions still young: 4H Cur S:7 vs Avg S:12.3 · 1D Cur S:4 vs Avg S:9.4 · 3D Cur S:2 vs Avg S:8.5 · 1W Cur S:2 vs Avg S:6.0 — below-EMA discount is real (Dev ~+0.8% to +4.6%), but time-below is not stretched yet → bounce can still extend lower before mean-reversion matures
- ALMA — 4H: LONG · L:4 = LAvg:3.7 OVERHEAT-L — short-clock stretch above the band against a weekly long
- ALMA — 1W: SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:2.9 — young below the weekly band (session not OVERHEAT-S yet)
- SMC — 4H status near fill: FVG Enter Bear ~$208 on 17 Jul — active bear inefficiency on the LTF map at the same price the weekly long used
- TL: Support Break (2 bars) mid-Jul — structure break still on the board from the earnings flush
- Weekly bars move slowly — underwater marks are common before a Resistance exit fires; max DD on the tester is wide (~67%)
Takeaway: the 1W VWAP strategy and win/loss skew support a post-print reaction long at ~$208, but young below-EMA sessions plus 4H OVERHEAT-L and mixed SMC (bull FVG vs breaker bear / LTF bear FVG) frame a grind / repair, not a clean discount reclaim; script exit stays the next Resistance touch, not a fixed % stop.
Base case: follow the 1W VWAP Swing · hold through weekly bars while LTF bull FVG / fractal-low zone cushions · work toward the next overhead swing-VWAP Resistance ribbon if P&C tape stabilizes after the print wash.
Bear case: fail to tag Resistance VWAP · lose the ~$204–208 bull FVG / fractal-low shelf · soft-pricing / margin narrative extends the post-earnings slide · weekly bar closes back through the entry VWAP support without a Resistance touch.
Chart: NYSE:PGR 1W — VWAP Swing Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA. 
Long
Webull Is Trying to Break Out of Its DowntrendNASDAQ:BULL Webull Corporation, ticker BULL, has had a rough run since its April 2025 IPO. After coming public during a volatile market backdrop, the stock has spent much of its short trading history moving lower.
Now, the chart is starting to show something more interesting.
On the weekly chart, BULL appears to be working its way out of a descending channel. The upper and lower boundaries of that channel line up with several prior resistance and support points, including a recent test near the end of June. A breakout from a descending channel does not automatically mean a new uptrend has started, but it is enough to put the stock back on the watchlist.
The key level to watch first is around $7.50. This zone has mattered before, acting as both support and resistance. A clean weekly close above that level would be the first sign that buyers are starting to regain control.
The next test sits close by: the 200-day simple moving average, currently around $7.68. If BULL can reclaim both the $7.50 zone and the 200-day moving average, the technical picture gets much more constructive.
In that bullish scenario, the next major upside target could be around $16.50. That area has acted as resistance in the past, making it a natural place to watch if momentum continues. From current levels, that would represent a significant move, so confirmation matters.
There is also a catalyst on the calendar. Webull has earnings coming up in August, and that could help push the stock higher if the market likes the results. Of course, the opposite is also true: earnings could trigger a retest of the lows if the reaction is negative.
For now, BULL is a momentum setup that needs proof. The descending-channel break is interesting, but the stronger signal would be a confirmed move above $7.50 and the 200-day moving average. Until then, it remains a watchlist idea rather than a fully confirmed breakout.
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This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully. 
Long
AMIA: New ATH, Weak Liquidity, and Bearish Divergence Caution📊 AMIA: Strong Fundamentals, But Momentum Suggests a Healthy Pullback First ⚖️
🏛️ Fundamental Review:
📊 Business Quality:
AMIA is one of Egypt's leading investment holding companies, with diversified exposure across financial services, real estate, agriculture, and industrial investments through a portfolio of strategic subsidiaries. 🏢
✅ Strengths & Catalysts:
The company continues to deliver exceptional earnings growth, supported by strong investment gains and high-quality subsidiary performance. 📈
Profitability, revenue growth, operating efficiency, and valuation all remain attractive, making AMIA one of the fundamentally stronger holding companies on the EGX. 💪
Its strategic shareholders control more than 80% of the company, providing long-term stability and institutional confidence. 🏦
⚠️ Risks:
Financial health remains the company's weakest area, with net debt exceeding comfortable levels despite the strong operating performance. ⚠️
Investment income can fluctuate significantly depending on asset sales and market conditions, making quarterly earnings less predictable. 📉
🕌 Sharia Compliance:
❌ Not Sharia-compliant.
Although the company's activities are generally permissible, its leverage exceeds the financial screening thresholds required for EGX33 Sharia compliance. ⚖️
🔍 The Pulse:
AMIA has delivered an impressive rally and recently printed a new all-time high. 🚀
However, today's breakout came on relatively weak liquidity, with around 40M EGP traded compared to nearly 120M EGP during the previous all-time high. 📊
Several momentum indicators are also showing bearish divergence, suggesting that buying momentum is beginning to weaken. ⚠️
I expect a healthy pullback before the stock attempts another bullish leg. 📉
As long as price remains above the key support at 9.31 EGP, the long-term structure remains constructive. 💪
If buyers regain control after the pullback, the next technical objective becomes the Fibonacci extension near 12.86 EGP. 🎯
🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
📍 Support, 9.31 EGP.
Holding above this level keeps the current bullish structure intact.
🚀 Bullish Continuation.
A successful rebound from support could restart the primary uptrend.
🎯 First Target, 12.86 EGP.
The next major Fibonacci extension and my primary technical target.
⚠️ Warning.
Bearish momentum divergence and declining breakout liquidity increase the probability of a short-term pullback.
🛑 Stop Loss.
A confirmed break below the middle band of the rising trend channel invalidates the current bullish setup.
🎯 The Verdict:
AMIA remains fundamentally one of the stronger investment holding companies on the EGX. 🏆
The main concern is its weak financial health due to elevated net debt. ⚠️
Technically, I believe a healthy pullback is more likely before another advance because momentum is fading while liquidity has weakened. 📉
Patient investors should wait for the pullback to complete before considering new positions. 🤝
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Long
KRDI: Stay Patient Until the Major Resistance Cluster Is Cleared📊 KRDI: Stay Patient Until the Major Resistance Cluster Is Cleared ⏳
⚠️ Risks:
Fundamentals remain weak and do not currently justify aggressive long-term positioning. ⚠️
KRDI has a long history of trapping investors inside prolonged consolidations after momentum rallies. 📉
Retail-driven moves can quickly fade if liquidity fails to continue expanding. 🚨
🔍 The Pulse:
Despite today's positive breakout, I remain cautious on KRDI. 📊
Although retail momentum has improved, the stock is still trading below a major resistance cluster that combines the Order Block, Fair Value, and the 52-week high around 0.43 EGP. 🚧
This area represents the true technical barrier that must be cleared before I become bullish. 📈
KRDI has historically trapped shareholders for months after similar rallies, so I prefer waiting for confirmation rather than chasing early momentum. ⏳
If the stock successfully closes above this resistance cluster, the probability of a sustained trend improves significantly. ✅
🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
🚀 Breakout Trigger, 0.43 EGP.
A confirmed close above the Order Block, Fair Value, and 52-week high would complete the bullish breakout.
🎯 First Target, 0.518 EGP.
The measured target from the triangle breakout.
🎯 Final Target, 0.596 EGP.
The next major technical objective if momentum continues.
⚠️ Current Resistance Cluster, 0.43 EGP.
This remains the most important level on the chart and must be cleared before considering new positions.
🎯 The Verdict:
I remain bearish to neutral despite today's positive price action. ⚠️
The recent retail momentum is encouraging, but it is still not enough to overcome KRDI's history of prolonged investor traps. 📉
Waiting for a confirmed breakout above 0.43 EGP still leaves more than 35% potential upside while significantly reducing the probability of a false breakout. 🤝
Patience is the best strategy here—protect your capital and wait for confirmation before committing new money. 🛡️
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APA | Oil Correlation Long Setup
**Technology Overview**
APA Corporation is one of the largest U.S. energy companies, focused on the exploration, production, and development of oil and natural gas. Its performance is closely tied to energy prices, making it highly sensitive to changes in the global energy market and geopolitical developments.
**Technical Analysis**
On the 1-hour chart, the price is currently in a **return-to-value** process following a period of weakness. We'll only consider a long position if the price holds the marked area, completes the return-to-value move with clear confirmation, and shows continuation. Until those conditions are met, there is no trade.
Given the current geopolitical environment, we'll place less emphasis on the broader stock market and focus more on the **oil market**. Since APA operates in the energy sector, strength in crude oil prices could significantly increase the probability of this setup succeeding. Even so, it's essential to wait for full confirmation and make sure the move isn't simply a liquidity sweep or a false breakout before entering.
The target shown on the chart is an **initial target only**. Trade management and any additional targets will depend on price action and market structure. As always, manage the trade according to your predefined risk unit and advance your stop-loss as soon as the market structure allows.
**Disclaimer:**
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk before making any trading decisions.
**Good luck to all of us!**
**Yours, The Chief.**
Long
Long
SpaceX falls nearly 46% from its peak assessing Starship impact SpaceX falls nearly 46% from its peak as the market assesses the impact of Starship
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed Friday’s session at $123.99, below its $135 IPO price for the first time since its market debut, as investors assess the impact of delays to the Starship program and the sharp correction recorded from its initial highs.
The company, which reached an all-time high of $225.61 shortly after its market debut, has accumulated a decline of more than 45%, after selling pressure significantly reduced its market valuation from the highs reached following the initial public offering.
In overnight trading, the stock is attempting to stabilize around $125.51, although it remains below the $135 level, a relevant technical and psychological reference as it coincides with the IPO price.
The deterioration in sentiment accelerated after SpaceX aborted the thirteenth Starship test flight minutes before launch. The automatic system interrupted the operation after detecting issues during the ignition sequence of several Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy booster. Elon Musk later confirmed that two engines will need to be replaced before the next launch attempt.
The incident increases pressure on a program considered a key component of SpaceX’s future valuation, as Starship is designed to expand the company’s launch capabilities, support Starlink’s growth and develop new commercial applications in the space sector.
The share price was also affected by the circulation of information later denied by Musk regarding an alleged $52 billion contract involving Foxconn and Nvidia, which the entrepreneur described as false information. The clarification allowed for a partial recovery in pre-market trading, although it did not alter the stock’s bearish structure.
Market positioning also reflects significant selling pressure. Nearly 49% of the free float is reportedly being lent for short-selling operations, according to market data, allowing bearish investors to accumulate approximately $8.7 billion in potential profits from the highs reached after the IPO.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, SpaceX maintains a corrective structure after losing the support level at $135.
The Volume Point of Control (POC) is currently located around $158.85, slightly below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at $161.79. This area coincides with the previous support range between the 25% Fibonacci level at $148.16 and the 38.20% retracement, making it the main technical resistance zone.
A recovery of the $148-$162 range would be necessary to improve the short-term structure, while the $135 level represents the first relevant resistance after losing the IPO price.
Momentum indicators continue to show weakness. The MACD maintains both the signal line and the moving average below the histogram, which remains in negative territory, although with a slight moderation in bearish pressure following the recent sharp correction.
The RSI stands at 25.34%, reflecting highly oversold conditions. Although this level may support short-term technical rebounds, it does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal while the price remains below its main moving averages.
The moving average structure confirms a corrective trend, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the all-time high of $225.61.
The ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator shows that, after several sessions of strong bullish moves, the asset is currently in a neutral risk zone, reflecting a loss of momentum following the sharp adjustment recorded.
Key Upcoming Catalysts
The market remains focused on SpaceX’s upcoming operational milestones, particularly the new Starship launch attempt, scheduled after technical corrections were made to the propulsion system.
A successful execution could help reduce bearish pressure and support a recovery toward lost technical levels. However, further delays or operational issues could maintain pressure on a stock that is currently trading below its initial market price.
Until SpaceX manages to recover the $135 level, the technical structure will continue to favor sellers, although the elevated level of short positioning could increase volatility in response to any positive news.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Can SpaceX Master Space, Compute, and Global Power?SpaceX is executing one of the most audacious expansions in corporate history. The company now dominates rocket launches, global satellite connectivity, and off-earth artificial intelligence infrastructure. Wall Street analysts forecast its long-term enterprise valuation reaching trillions of dollars. Let us examine how SpaceX reshapes global dynamics across multiple key domains.
Geopolitics and Geostrategy
SpaceX now shapes modern global geopolitical strategy. Starlink satellite constellations provide secure communications in conflict zones. National governments increasingly rely on commercial space infrastructure for sovereign security. Orbital dominance grants unprecedented strategic leverage across international defense networks. Space is now the primary national security frontier.
Macroeconomics and Economics
The public market debut of SpaceX creates immense capital market shifts. Wall Street analysts forecast massive revenue growth reaching trillions over the coming decades. High-capacity launch economics significantly reduce the cost of orbiting commercial payloads. Lower launch costs stimulate rapid economic expansion across the space economy. Space infrastructure now directly drives long-term global economic growth.
Industry Trends and Business Models
SpaceX combines reusable launch hardware with satellite connectivity and data infrastructure. This vertically integrated business model captures unprecedented market share globally. Unmatched launch cost structures prevent legacy aerospace firms from competing effectively. Meanwhile, recurring Starlink subscription revenues fund aggressive capital expenditures. This flywheel model redefines high-growth tech valuation standards.
Management and Leadership
Elon Musk maintains extreme strategic alignment across his corporate ecosystem. Proactive management sets aggressive engineering timelines to accelerate operational velocity. Executive leadership embraces calculated risks to deploy next-generation technologies rapidly. Decisive decision-making turns daunting capital requirements into sustainable enterprise value. Strong leadership maintains complete authority over long-term strategic direction.
Company Culture and Innovation
A culture of rapid iterative development drives continuous breakthrough innovation. Failure during early testing phases yields critical data for hardware improvement. Teams rapidly prototype new Starship architectures and advanced orbital hardware. This intense operational pace forces traditional defense contractors to adapt or fail. Continuous innovation remains the core foundation of company growth.
Technology and High-Tech
Next-generation Starship vehicles deliver unprecedented payload capacity to orbit. Advanced satellite hardware enables high-bandwidth, direct-to-cell global communication networks. Furthermore, orbital compute clusters herald a breakthrough in AI data centers. Space-based supercomputing circumvents terrestrial land and energy constraints cleanly. High-tech engineering merges launch dynamics with cutting-edge artificial intelligence.
Cybersecurity and Patent Analysis
Operating global orbital networks requires impenetrable defense against sophisticated cyber threats. State-sponsored hackers continually attempt to disrupt critical space communication channels. Consequently, advanced cryptographic protection shields satellite telemetry and global data streams. Patent analysis reveals strategic filings covering satellite routing and propulsion tech. Defensive patenting protects key architectural inventions against global competitors.
Pharmaceuticals and Science
Microgravity environments on orbital stations enable groundbreaking scientific research. Pharmaceutical researchers utilize weightlessness to grow flawless protein crystals for drug discovery. SpaceX provides affordable, frequent orbital access for advanced biomedical research. Frequent payload delivery accelerates complex clinical trials and novel drug manufacturing. Space-based science unlocks revolutionary medical treatments for global healthcare.
Conclusion
SpaceX has transformed from a launch provider into a global infrastructure titan. Its integration of launch, connectivity, and compute reshapes global power. Industry leaders must navigate this new era of orbital economic dominance. Long 
MCQE: New Highs Required Before the Next Bullish Leg📊 MCQE: Break Above the All-Time High Could Trigger the Next Expansion Wave 🚀
🏛️ Fundamental Review:
📊 Business Quality:
MCQE is one of Egypt's strongest cement producers, benefiting from exceptional earnings growth, strong export demand, and significant institutional ownership. 🏗️
✅ Strengths & Catalysts:
The company continues to deliver outstanding financial performance, with Q1 2026 net profit more than doubling year-over-year while maintaining strong pricing power across its regional markets. 📈
Its attractive valuation, expanding clinker exports, and backing from major institutional investors make it one of the strongest fundamental stories in Egypt's cement sector. 💪
⚠️ Risks:
Despite its excellent fundamentals, the stock remains sensitive to coal prices, energy costs, and transportation expenses. ⚠️
After its strong multi-year rally, the price may experience healthy corrections before resuming its longer-term uptrend. 📉
☪️ Sharia Compliance:
MCQE is compliant with the index's Sharia screening methodology. ✅
💰 Valuation:
The stock continues to trade at an attractive valuation relative to its earnings growth, making it one of the stronger long-term industrial opportunities on the EGX. 💎
🔍 The Pulse:
MCQE remains in a strong long-term uptrend, but I am still waiting for a confirmed breakout above the all-time high before becoming more aggressive. 📈
A confirmed close above the previous all-time high would signal the start of the next bullish expansion wave. 🚀
Failure to break the upper boundary of the long-term rising channel could trigger another healthy correction toward the middle or even the lower channel support. 📉
The Order Block around 160 EGP remains one of the strongest demand zones on the chart and should attract buyers if tested. 🛡️
Until the breakout is confirmed, patience remains the best strategy. ⏳
🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
🚀 Breakout Trigger, Above the All-Time High.
A confirmed close above the previous all-time high signals the beginning of a new bullish leg.
🎯 First Target, 280.00 EGP.
The projected technical expansion target following the breakout.
📍 Major Support, 160.00 EGP.
A strong Order Block where buyers are expected to defend the trend.
⚠️ First Warning, Middle Trend Channel.
A rejection from the upper channel could lead to a healthy pullback toward this support.
🛑 Stop Loss, Below the 200-day Moving Average.
A confirmed close below the 200-day Moving Average invalidates the bullish structure.
🎯 The Verdict:
MCQE remains one of the strongest fundamentally driven industrial stocks on the EGX. 🏆
The technical structure remains bullish, but confirmation above the all-time high is still required before considering new positions. 📈
A successful breakout could open the door toward the 280 EGP target, while any pullback toward the Order Block may provide a better risk-reward opportunity. 🤝
Patience is key until the market confirms the next expansion phase. 🛡️
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Long
