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This Could Be the Most Important Sector Signal of September The Breadth Is Broken. The Leaders Are Repairing. Everyone Is Watching SPY but the better signal is in SOXX, IGV, XLK, XLE.
NVDA is an obvious proxy for SOXX or vice versa.
This post should be seen in context with last week's: Roadmap for the rest of 2026 - Did you catch the signals? (linked on the right). It has received a lot of positive feedback, hence do not miss it.
The market is still highly concentrated.
Equal-weight remains weak.
Small caps remain weak.
Industrials, Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer groups remain poor.
But something important changed this week.
Technology is strengthening.
XLK remains strong in absolute and relative terms.
Software remains constructive.
And Semiconductors are beginning to repair.
SOXX has reclaimed short-term trend references, while SOXX/SPY is showing its first meaningful relative improvement in weeks.
Where is capital still flowing?
The cleanest leadership remains:
Energy + Technology
with:
Software strong
Semiconductors repairing
Healthcare and Financials remain structurally relevant but are correcting.
What matters
The next question is not whether QQQ rallies.
It's whether leadership repair becomes breadth repair.
Watch:
RSP/SPY
QQQE/SPY
IWM/SPY
All three remain weak.
What is mostly noise
A strong index day driven by the existing leaders.
That doesn't tell us the average stock has recovered.
TradeSentinel Takeaway
The market is no longer deteriorating uniformly.
Some leadership groups are beginning to heal — especially Technology and Semiconductors — while broad participation remains poor.
That is a potentially constructive first step.
But the hierarchy remains:
Leadership repair first.
Breadth repair second.
Recovery confirmation only after both.
For now:
Lean into: XLE, XLK, IGV
Upgrading: SOXX
Watch: XLV, XLF
Breadth confirmation required: RSP, QQQE, IWM
If RSP, QQQE and IWM begin following the improving Tech leadership, the washout/recovery thesis becomes much more credible. Tesla-Can Buyers Build Enough Momentum for Another Break Higher？Market Structure
Tesla remains in a medium-term bullish structure on the 4-hour chart. After recovering strongly from the late-July low, price has entered a consolidation phase below resistance. Higher lows continue to hold, suggesting buyers are still defending the trend despite the recent sideways movement.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Momentum has cooled after the recent rally, but buyers continue to absorb selling pressure around support. As long as higher lows remain intact, the overall sentiment stays cautiously bullish.
Bullish Scenario
If Tesla breaks above the 368 resistance zone with strong buying volume, bullish momentum could accelerate toward 375, with 382 becoming the next upside target.
Bearish Scenario
If price falls below the 356 support area, short-term selling pressure could increase and drive the price toward 348. A decisive break below 348 would weaken the current bullish structure and shift momentum back to the downside.
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Market View
Tesla is trading within a consolidation range after a solid recovery from recent lows. While buyers continue defending support, the market is waiting for a clear breakout before establishing the next directional move.
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Key Levels
First Resistance: 368
Second Resistance: 375
First Support: 356
Second Support: 348
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Outlook
A sustained breakout above 368 would confirm renewed buying strength and could open the door toward 375–382.
On the other hand, losing 356 would increase the probability of another corrective move toward 348 before buyers attempt to regain control.
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Event Risk
Tesla may remain sensitive to broader Nasdaq performance, U.S. economic data, Treasury yield movements, EV industry developments, company-specific announcements, and overall market risk sentiment. These events could lead to increased short-term volatility.
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Please share your view below:
Do you think Tesla is ready to break above resistance and continue its recovery, or will the current consolidation lead to another pullback?
I'll continue sharing more Market Structure and Key Level updates. Alphabet Approaches a Major Resistance ZoneMarket Structure
Alphabet is recovering from its recent correction and has established a sequence of higher lows on the 4-hour chart. Price is now approaching a key resistance area around 350, where buyers and sellers are likely to compete for short-term control.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
Momentum has improved following the recent rebound, but price remains below a major resistance zone. Buyers currently have a slight advantage, although confirmation is still needed before a sustained breakout can be expected.
Bullish Scenario
If price breaks above the 350 resistance and holds above it, bullish momentum could accelerate toward 358, with 365 becoming the next upside target.
Bearish Scenario
If price fails to break above 350 and falls below the 342 support, selling pressure could increase and push price toward the 335 area. A break below 335 would weaken the current recovery structure.
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Market View
Alphabet has recovered steadily from its recent lows and is once again testing an important resistance level. The current consolidation suggests the market is preparing for its next move. Whether buyers can clear resistance or sellers defend this area will likely determine the short-term direction.
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Key Levels
First Resistance: 350
Second Resistance: 358
First Support: 342
Second Support: 335
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Outlook
A confirmed breakout above 350 would strengthen the bullish outlook and could open the door toward 358–365.
However, if buyers lose momentum below 342, the recovery may pause and a deeper pullback toward 335 could develop.
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Event Risk
Alphabet may remain sensitive to broader Nasdaq performance, U.S. economic data, Treasury yields, AI-related developments, and company-specific news. These events could drive short-term volatility.
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Please share your view below:
Do you think Alphabet is ready to break above 350, or will resistance trigger another rejection?
I'll continue sharing more Market Structure and Key Level updates. Meta — Healthy Correction or Trend Reversal?Market Structure
Meta remains in a strong bullish structure on the 4-hour chart, with higher highs and higher lows still intact. After an aggressive rally toward new swing highs, price has started to pull back from resistance, suggesting a short-term correction within the broader uptrend.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
The overall trend continues to favor buyers despite the recent pullback. Profit-taking has increased near resistance, but unless key support levels are broken, the broader bullish structure remains unchanged.
Bullish Scenario
If price finds support around 660 and buyers regain momentum, Meta could retest the 680 resistance. A successful breakout above 680 would expose the 688–690 area as the next upside objective.
Bearish Scenario
If price falls below 660, selling pressure could increase and lead to a deeper correction toward 645. A break below 645 would weaken the current bullish structure and shift momentum toward the sellers.
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Market View
Meta has delivered an impressive rally over the past several sessions and is now experiencing its first meaningful pullback near resistance. At this stage, the decline appears more like profit-taking than a confirmed trend reversal. The reaction around support will likely determine whether buyers are ready for another leg higher.
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Key Levels
First Resistance: 680
Second Resistance: 688
First Support: 660
Second Support: 645
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Outlook
Holding above 660 would keep the bullish outlook intact and could allow buyers to challenge 680 once again.
However, a decisive break below 660 may trigger a deeper retracement toward 645 before the next directional move develops.
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Event Risk
Meta may remain sensitive to broader Nasdaq performance, U.S. economic data, Treasury yields, AI-related developments, and company-specific news. These factors could increase short-term volatility.
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Please share your view below:
Do you think Meta will resume its rally and break above 680, or is a deeper pullback more likely from here?
I'll continue sharing more Market Structure and Key Level updates. 
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AAPL | September 21, 2026 | Fibonacci, Dow Theory & Trend LineToday's AAPL review focused on Fibonacci retracements, trend lines, and correcting a misconception I had about the 50% and 61.8% levels.
One of the biggest things I'm learning is that it's not enough to know *where* to put a tool on the chart. I want to understand why those levels matter and what they're actually telling me.
I originally looked at the **50% and 61.8% levels almost like they served the same purpose. Digging deeper helped me understand that the 50% retracement isn't actually a Fibonacci ratio. Its popularity has roots in older market ideas, including Dow Theory and the observation that markets often retrace roughly half of a move. The 61.8% level comes from Fibonacci's golden ratio and later became important in technical frameworks such as Elliott Wave.
In today's video, I covered:
* My misconception about the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels
* Why 50% isn't technically a Fibonacci ratio
* The thinking behind the 61.8% level
* Why I can think about 50% to 61.8% as an area rather than obsessing over one exact line
* Using trend lines alongside retracement levels for additional context
* Understanding the reasoning behind my tools instead of simply drawing them on the chart
The bigger lesson for me is **understanding before execution.**
I can draw a Fib. I can draw a trend line. But knowing how to use TradingView isn't the same as understanding what those tools represent.
When a retracement area starts lining up with my trend line, structure, liquidity, and eventually my edge, that's when the chart becomes more interesting. I'm stacking information and then waiting to see whether price confirms the story.
The goal isn't to make 50% or 61.8% a magical number. **It's to understand why traders pay attention to these areas and then watch what price actually does when it gets there.**
Dad Stock Joke: I told the 50% level it wasn't really Fibonacci. It said, “After all these years, you're telling me I'm adopted?”
SMCI: news flow leaning bullish · No. 280
SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ Google Goes Nuclear in Nordic Data Center Push - Industrial Info Resources
++ 3 US Grid Stocks Riding The Data Center Power Buildout - simplywall.st
+ Google eyes new data center project in New Mexico's Lea County - datacenters.economictimes.indiatimes.com
9 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) 
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SKHY: news flow leaning bullish · No. 281
SKHY did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ HanmiGlobal manages SK hynix HBM plant construction in Indiana - The Korea Times
++ 3 US Grid Stocks Riding The Data Center Power Buildout - simplywall.st
+ Google Goes Nuclear in Nordic Data Center Push - Industrial Info Resources
9 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) 
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NVDA Cleared 222.73 And 224.51 In One Session.NVDA Cleared 222.73 And 224.51 In One Session.
NVDA is trading at 224.07 after holding 220.18 on Friday and clearing both levels above it, with the high at 224.90. That is the fifth and sixth level reclaimed in seven sessions, and the 220.18 retest from above - price coming back to a level it had already taken, which is the test that separates a repair from a trend - resolved upward. The 4H structure announced a new bull zone this morning with a clear path ahead of it, while hourly volume sits near the bottom of its range, so the move is going in without expansion behind it. Neutral.
Resistance: 224.90 - the session high
Key resistance: 226.88 - the top of the newly announced zone, then 227.11
Current price: 224.07
Support: 220.18 - the level reclaimed and then defended
Key support: 217.74 - the band beneath
Structural floor: 214.58 - the gap-fill level
Two paths from here:
It holds 222.73 and takes 224.90. That opens 226.88 and 227.11, the first real structure since the August highs, and the repair stops being a repair. The newly announced zone sits directly in that path.
It loses 222.73 and closes back under 220.18. That would make the two-level clearance a spike rather than an extension, and puts price back in the 217.74 to 219.34 band it spent most of last week working through.
Seven sessions, six levels, and no earnings between here and the next one. 222.73 is the first thing that would say the sequence has stopped.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.5 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
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