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$SPCX , Idea UpdateAs I said in my last video, we reached the $135 area.
And this is exactly why I prefer to let the market give me more data before trying to force a prediction.
The lowest target before $115 is now completely invalidated.
The resistance zone around $185 is now the key area I am watching.
From here, we could see:
• A direct move toward resistance followed by rejection
• A deeper retracement into the next demand zone before a recovery
• A much deeper correction into the lower demand areas
• Or, in the most extreme scenario, a move toward the $23–30 area before a major reversal
The more days pass, the more data we collect, and the sharper the picture gets. For now: weak low below, deep zones waiting, resistance watching everything from above. Patience mode.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
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Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your life coach, or your legally responsible adult. Always do your own research and never trade based solely on internet comedy.
VLMRA: Waiting for the Breakout Before the Next Major Rally 📊 VLMRA: Waiting for the Breakout Before the Next Major Rally 🚀
🏛️ Fundamental Review:
📊 Business Quality:
VLMRA (Valmore Holding) is one of Egypt's strongest diversified investment companies, with exposure to fertilizers, petrochemicals, energy, logistics, insurance, and infrastructure. Its significant USD-denominated revenues provide an effective hedge against local currency depreciation. 🏭
✅ Strengths & Catalysts:
The company generates strong hard-currency cash flows from its export-oriented industrial businesses, providing resilience during periods of currency volatility. 💵
A series of strategic asset sales strengthened the balance sheet while maintaining solid profitability and attractive dividend distributions. 📈
Its diversified business model reduces dependence on a single sector and provides multiple long-term growth drivers. 🚀
⚠️ Risks:
Earnings remain sensitive to global fertilizer, petrochemical, and energy prices. ⚠️
Regional geopolitical developments and export logistics may temporarily affect some operating subsidiaries. 🌍
💰 Valuation:
VLMRA remains one of the strongest long-term value and income opportunities on the EGX, supported by solid fundamentals and an attractive dividend profile. 💎
🔍 The Pulse:
VLMRA remains one of the strongest fundamentally driven stocks on the EGX. 💪
I have been waiting for a confirmed breakout for quite some time, but I do not consider the breakout complete yet. ⏳
The key confirmation will be a weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level, supported by strong trading volume. ✅
Without that confirmation, I prefer to remain patient rather than chase the price. 🤝
Once the breakout is confirmed, the stock could begin a new bullish wave toward higher Fibonacci extension targets. 🚀
🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
🚀 Breakout Trigger.
A weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance with strong volume confirms the next bullish leg.
🎯 First Target, 33.62 EGP.
The first major upside objective following the breakout.
🎯 Second Target, 36.85 EGP.
The next Fibonacci extension target.
🎯 Final Target, 42.00–43.50 EGP.
The long-term resistance cluster and primary technical objective.
⚠️ Main Support, 27.00 EGP.
Holding above this level keeps the long-term bullish structure intact.
🛑 Stop Loss, 27.00 EGP.
A confirmed close below the major support invalidates the current setup.
🎯 The Verdict:
VLMRA remains one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities on the EGX. 🏆
The fundamentals continue to support higher prices, but the technical breakout has not yet been confirmed. 📊
I prefer waiting for a strong weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level with high trading volume before entering new positions. 🤝
Patience here improves the probability of participating in a sustained bullish move rather than a false breakout. 🛡️
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Long
SCEM: Breakout Confirmed as the Uptrend Resumes 📊 SCEM: Breakout Confirmed as the Uptrend Resumes 🚀
🏛️ Fundamental Review:
📊 Business Quality:
SCEM is one of Egypt's leading cement manufacturers and a major player in the domestic construction materials sector. Backed by the international Vicat Group, the company has transformed into one of the strongest turnaround stories on the EGX. 🏗️
✅ Strengths & Catalysts:
The company has delivered exceptional financial results, with revenue growing more than 41% in FY2025 and Q1 2026 net profit exceeding 1.1B EGP. 📈
A major balance sheet restructuring eliminated legacy financial pressure, leaving the company in a much stronger financial position. 💪
Strong profitability, expanding margins, and continued demand from infrastructure projects support the long-term investment case. 🏗️
⚠️ Risks:
Cement producers remain exposed to fluctuations in fuel and electricity costs, which directly impact production margins. ⚠️
Operations are also sensitive to construction activity and government infrastructure spending cycles. 🌍
💰 Valuation:
Despite the recent rally, SCEM still appears reasonably valued relative to its earnings growth and operational turnaround, making it one of the stronger industrial names on the EGX. 💎
🔍 The Pulse:
SCEM has been one of my favorite breakout candidates since May. 👀
Last week, the stock successfully broke above its triangle pattern. 📈
This week's trading confirmed that breakout with continued buying pressure, strengthening the bullish technical structure. ✅
As long as the price remains above the major support at 67.00 EGP, the bullish trend remains intact. 💪
The breakout opens the door for a retest of the previous all-time high before targeting higher Fibonacci extension levels. 🚀
🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
📍 Support Level, 67.00 EGP.
Holding above this level keeps the bullish breakout valid.
🎯 First Target, 75.00 EGP.
A retest of the previous all-time high.
🎯 Second Target, 81.77 EGP.
The next major Fibonacci extension target.
🎯 Final Target, 91.30 EGP.
The long-term technical projection if momentum continues.
🛑 Stop Loss, 65.00 EGP.
A confirmed close below the order block around 65.00 EGP invalidates the current bullish setup.
🎯 The Verdict:
SCEM remains one of the strongest industrial turnaround stories on the EGX. 🏆
Both the fundamentals and technical picture are now aligned after the confirmed triangle breakout. 📈
As long as the stock holds above 67.00 EGP, the probability favors continuation toward 75.00 EGP, followed by 81.77 EGP and potentially 91.30 EGP. 🚀
Risk remains well defined with a stop below the order block near 65.00 EGP. 🛡️
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IRS - Can Buyers Defend the Broader Uptrend?IRS is one of Argentina's largest real estate companies, with a diversified portfolio that includes shopping centers, office buildings, hotels, and residential developments. The stock is often followed by investors seeking exposure to the Argentine real estate sector.
From a technical perspective, the stock remains overall bullish, continuing to trade inside the red ascending broadening wedge that has guided the long-term trend.
Following the rejection from the upper red resistance area, price is approaching an important technical region where the lower boundary of the broadening wedge aligns with a blue support zone.
⭕As price approaches this support area, we can start looking for trend-following buy setups on lower timeframes, anticipating a potential continuation of the broader bullish trend.
⭕However, if price breaks below the current support zone, the focus shifts toward the next lower support area, where buyers may become active once again.
Price action around this technical region may reveal whether the broader bullish structure remains intact, or if sellers have other plans.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.
Rayan Nasser
#IRS #Stocks #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TrendAnalysis 
Long
MSFT | Deep Correction Complete—Bulls Target The Liquidity Above
By analyzing the #MSFT (Microsoft) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that the broader trend remains bullish, and the deep correction that shook out weak hands looks to be complete. Price has reclaimed structure off a key demand area, and the setup now points toward the liquidity resting overhead.
📊 4H Timeframe
On the 4H, the bigger picture is an uptrend that went through a deep corrective phase inside a descending channel. Two things then flipped the script: price printed an internal CHoCH (iCHoCH), signaling the correction was losing steam — and then, on the push lower into the Demand Zone ( $344.31 – $365.42 ), it executed a clean liquidity sweep, running the stops resting below before launching higher with force. That's the classic trap: take the liquidity, then reverse.
Since reclaiming from demand, price has been grinding higher and is now building a smaller corrective channel after the last leg up, trading around $394.03 . A break of this corrective channel to the upside is the trigger that opens the door toward the stacked buy-side liquidity (BSL) overhead at $466.21 , $489.53 , and ultimately $555.39 . The entire bullish thesis stays valid as long as price holds above the Protected Low at $344.31 , with deeper structural support at $310.25 .
🎯 The Bias
My base case is bullish continuation. The trend is up, the deep correction completed with an iCHoCH and a liquidity sweep into demand, and price has already reclaimed with strength. The trigger is a break of the current corrective channel to the upside — on that break, the draw is toward the BSL pools above ($466.21 → $489.53 → $555.39). In my view, as long as MSFT holds above the Protected Low ($344.31), every dip remains a buying opportunity rather than a reversal — the sweep already did its job of clearing the sellers.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The bullish structure lines up with a compelling fundamental setup. Microsoft has been the laggard of the "Magnificent Seven," down roughly 20% year-to-date and about 29% from its record high, as investors punished the sector over fears that AI could disrupt legacy software — but that sell-off has left the stock at its cheapest forward multiple since 2023 (around 20–22x earnings), which many analysts frame as a rare entry point. The next major catalyst is fiscal Q4 earnings on July 29, and sentiment into it is constructive: the prior quarter beat with $81.3 billion in revenue (up 17% YoY), and analysts widely expect the print to spark a recovery. The Street is overwhelmingly bullish — the average target sits around $559–592 (well above current price), with fresh Buy reiterations citing Azure and M365 tailwinds plus underappreciated earnings power, and Microsoft just overhauled its cybersecurity unit to monetize AI-driven threats. The risk to respect: the enormous AI capex bill (FY2026 guidance up near $190 billion, ~61% higher YoY) is growing faster than revenue and could pressure margins — so the July 29 commentary on spend and Azure growth is the real test. But with the valuation reset and earnings imminent, the fundamental picture aligns with the bullish technical read.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Microsoft heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 
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