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Why Your Stop Comes Before Your Entry
New traders usually pick an entry first and a stop second โ often after they're already in and hoping. Flip it.
Decide where you're wrong before you buy. The price where the setup breaks is your stop. Everything else is built from it.
Why it matters
โข Your stop sets your risk . Your risk sets your position size. If you don't know the stop, you can't size the trade โ you're just guessing.
โข A stop chosen before entry is logical . A stop chosen after entry is emotional.
A simple routine
Find the level where the setup fails โ below a swing low, under a key moving average. Your call, but pick it first.
That's your stop.
Size the trade so that if the stop hits, you lose only a small, fixed slice of your account.
Now enter โ calm, because the downside is already defined.
The trade you can't define a stop for is a trade you probably shouldn't take.
Here is the formula
Risk dollars = Account ร Risk %
$10,000 ร 1% = $100. That's the most this trade is allowed to cost you. It's fixed before you look at anything else.
Shares = Risk dollars รท (Entry โ Stop)
The stop distance is the divisor โ that's why the stop has to exist before the share count can.
Here is an example of how it works
Entry: $50.00
Stop: $48.00 (risk per share = $2.00)
Shares: $100 รท $2.00 = 50 shares
Position size: 50 ร $50 = $2,500 (25% of the account โ fine, because only $100 is actually at risk)
Take profit at 2R: $50 + (2 ร $2.00) = $54.00 โ win = $200, loss = $100
The Point of it all โ same entry, different stop
Stop Risk/share Shares Position 2R target
$48.00 $2.00 50 $2,500 $54.00
$47.00 $3.00 33 $1,650 $56.00
$45.00 $5.00 20 $1,000 $60.00
Every row loses exactly $100 if the stop hits.
The wider stop doesn't mean more risk โ it means fewer shares.
That's the whole argument for setting the stop first: the chart tells you where the stop belongs (below support, below the swing low), and the share count falls out of the arithmetic.
Traders who pick the share count first are letting position size dictate the stop, which is backwards โ they end up with a stop placed where the loss is tolerable instead of where the trade is wrong.
Always round shares down . $100 รท $3.00 = 33.3 โ take 33, never 34.
Rounding up quietly pushes risk past 1%.
Risk-per-share ignores gaps .
A stop is an exit order, not a guarantee โ a gap through your stop loses more than the planned $100
Educational only โ not financial advice.
Education
AAPL Finds Support as Buying Interest Strengthens the UptrendAAPL has attracted buying interest in recent sessions after pulling back to the $281 support level. The stock remains in a strong uptrend, trading above well-aligned 20- and 50-day moving averages, suggesting that the broader bullish trend remains intact.
Apple, Inc. is a $4.62 trillion market capitalization company that designs, manufactures, and sells smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, accessories, and a wide range of related services. The company operates across five geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. Its product and service portfolio includes the iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, AppleCare, iCloud, digital content stores, streaming services, and licensing services.
AAPL is a wide economic moat company that has grown both revenue and EPS consistently over the last three quarters. The company continues to demonstrate exceptional profitability, with operating and net margins of 32% and 27%, respectively. ROE and ROIC stand at 141% and 75%, highlighting Apple's outstanding capital efficiency and shareholder returns. Its balance sheet remains healthy, with a current ratio of 1.1x and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.8x, providing financial flexibility to support continued innovation, capital returns, and long-term growth. 
Long
Tesla: Pause before next break higherTesla has seen a very nice recovery above the 436 level back in May, which we highlighted as an important level point for bullish continuation, because it clearly shows that bulls are still active, especially since the whole decline from the December highs into the April 2026 lows unfolded in seven swings, which is why we labeled it as a W X Y correction. However, notice that rebound from the 335 lows also then unfolded as corrective because we can count only three waves up so into 455, which makes the current structure quite tricky.
It could mean that the higher degree wave B from the December highs is still underway and may unfold either as a flat or, but ideally its going to be triangle that could keep the market trapped in a range for now. For that reason, the support area around 334 to 362 could still be retested before the market attracts new buyers again, which we think could happen if the Elliott Wave Oscillator turns back above the zero line, suggesting that a new bullish sequence may be underway.
Highlights:
โข Three waves upo from 335 to 455,and now new three legs down looks like a pause for Tesla
โข Market may remain trapped in a larger flat or triangle consolidation
โข Key support area to watch remains between 334 and 362
โข Elliott Wave Oscillator can hint a possible new bullish sequence if it recovers above 0 
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TRGP Maintains Uptrend as Strong EPS Growth Supports InterestTRGP is attracting buying interest as the stock remains in a strong uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows while trading above its 20- and 50-day moving averages.
Targa Resources Corp. is a $60.44 billion market capitalization company that engages in the gathering, compressing, treating, processing, transporting, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company operates through three segments: Gathering and Processing, Logistics and Transportation, and Other. The Gathering and Processing segment includes assets used to gather, process, and purchase and sell natural gas produced from oil and gas wells. The Logistics and Transportation segment comprises the assets and activities necessary to transport, fractionate, store, and export NGL products. The Other segment includes mark-to-market gains and losses from commodity derivative contracts.
TRGP is a narrow economic moat company that has grown revenue in one of the last three quarters and EPS consistently over the last three quarters. The company maintains solid profitability, with operating and net margins of 25% and 11%, respectively. ROE and ROIC stand at 76% and 11%, reflecting strong shareholder returns and efficient capital deployment. Its current ratio of 0.7x indicates relatively modest short-term liquidity, while its debt-to-equity ratio of 6.1x reflects significant leverage. 
Long
MNST Pullback Attracts Buying Interest Amid Strong FundamentalsMNST is attracting buying interest as the stock continues to make higher highs and higher lows while trading above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, confirming that the uptrend remains intact.
Monster Beverage Corp. is a $95.85 billion market capitalization company that develops, markets, sells, and distributes energy drink beverages and concentrates. The company operates through four segments: Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, Alcohol Brands, and Other. The Monster Energy Drinks segment sells ready-to-drink packaged energy drinks to bottlers and full-service beverage distributors. The Strategic Brands segment sells concentrates and beverage bases to authorized bottling and canning operations. The Alcohol Brands segment offers craft beers, flavored malt beverages (FMBs), and hard seltzers. The Other segment consists of products sold by its subsidiary, American Fruits and Flavors LLC, to independent third-party customers.
MNST is a narrow economic moat company that has grown revenue and EPS consistently over the last three quarters. The company maintains strong profitability, with operating and net margins of 31% and 24%, respectively. ROE and ROIC stand at 27% and 26%, reflecting efficient capital allocation and attractive returns. Its balance sheet remains exceptionally strong, with a current ratio of 3.3x and virtually no debt, as evidenced by its 0.0x debt-to-equity ratio. 
Long
MFPC: Great Fundamentals, Waiting for Technical Confirmation ๐ MFPC: Great Fundamentals, Waiting for Technical Confirmation โณ
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
MFPC (MOPCO) is one of Egypt's highest-quality fertilizer producers and a premier export-driven industrial company, generating more than 80% of its revenue in hard currency. ๐
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
The company delivered outstanding Q1 2026 results, with net profit surging 88% year-over-year while maintaining exceptional profitability, a virtually debt-free balance sheet, and industry-leading cash generation. ๐
Continuous investments in production efficiency and carbon recovery projects further strengthen its long-term competitive advantage. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
Earnings remain tied to global fertilizer prices and domestic natural gas availability, making profitability sensitive to commodity cycles and government energy policies. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation:
MFPC remains fundamentally attractive and one of the strongest long-term holdings on the EGX, but the chart has not yet confirmed a new bullish trend. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
MFPC is another high-quality stock waiting for the right technical entry signal. โณ
Although the valuation looks attractive, the technical structure has not yet turned bullish. ๐
I prefer waiting for a confirmed breakout and close above 41.52 EGP before entering. โ
That confirmation would significantly improve the probability of a sustained upward move. ๐
The first upside target stands at 44.22 EGP. ๐ฏ
The second target is a retest of the all-time high around 48.00 EGP. ๐
The long-term objective remains Faisal's annual target around 52.90 EGP. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 41.52 EGP.
A confirmed close above this level signals a new bullish trend.
๐ฏ First Target, 44.22 EGP.
The initial upside objective after the breakout.
๐ฏ Second Target, 48.00 EGP.
A retest of the all-time high.
๐ฏ Final Target, 52.90 EGP.
Faisal's annual target and the long-term objective.
๐ Stop Loss, 37.20 EGP.
A close below this level invalidates the bullish setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
MFPC combines elite fundamentals with attractive long-term valuation. ๐
The only missing piece is technical confirmation. โณ
Wait for a confirmed breakout above 41.52 EGP before building a position. ๐ค
Once confirmed, the stock offers an attractive risk-to-reward profile toward progressively higher targets. ๐
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ABUK: The First Bullish Signal Has Finally Arrived ๐ ABUK: The First Bullish Signal Has Finally Arrived ๐
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
ABUK is Egypt's dominant nitrogen fertilizer producer and one of the highest-quality industrial companies on the EGX, with a strong export-driven business model. ๐
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
Q1 2026 net profit more than doubled year-over-year, supported by stable natural gas supplies, higher production, and expanding export volumes that generate substantial hard currency revenues. ๐
The company combines exceptional financial strength, strong institutional ownership, and a durable competitive position within the fertilizer sector. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
Profitability remains sensitive to global fertilizer prices and government gas pricing policies, while the stock still trades at a premium valuation compared with some regional peers. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation:
Despite its premium multiple, ABUK remains one of the highest-quality long-term investments on the EGX thanks to its strong cash generation and defensive fundamentals. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
ABUK remains one of the strongest stocks on the Egyptian Exchange. ๐ช
I have been waiting for weeks for the first technical confirmation before considering a new investment. โณ
Today's price action delivered that first bullish signal. โ
Aggressive investors can consider entering from yesterday's close around 73.31 EGP. ๐
Conservative investors should wait for a confirmed close above 75.77 EGP for additional confirmation. ๐
Both strategies use the same technical stop-loss below the 200-day Moving Average at 63.45 EGP. ๐ก๏ธ
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Early Entry, 73.31 EGP.
The first bullish signal has already appeared for investors willing to enter early.
โ
Confirmation Trigger, 75.77 EGP.
A close above this level confirms the continuation of the bullish trend.
๐ Stop Loss, 63.45 EGP.
A break below the 200-day Moving Average invalidates the bullish setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
ABUK continues to rank among the highest-quality companies on the EGX. ๐
Both the fundamentals and the technical structure are aligning in favor of higher prices. ๐
Early entries are now reasonable, while conservative investors may prefer waiting for confirmation above 75.77 EGP. ๐ค
Risk remains well defined with a stop below the 200-day Moving Average. ๐ก๏ธ
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Long
ICFC: Wait for the Triangle Breakout Before Entering ๐ ICFC: Wait for the Triangle Breakout Before Entering โณ
๐๏ธ Fundamental Review:
๐ Business Quality:
ICFC is one of Egypt's leading agricultural distributors, benefiting from a diversified portfolio across fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, and grains. ๐ฑ
โ
Strengths & Catalysts:
The company continues to deliver strong earnings growth, with Q1 2026 net profit rising nearly 34% year-over-year, supported by robust operations and increasing contributions from affiliated companies. ๐
Strategic expansion into agricultural seeds and a proposed acquisition further strengthen its long-term growth outlook. ๐
โ ๏ธ Risks:
Trading liquidity remains relatively limited, while profitability is still exposed to raw material costs, currency fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions. โ ๏ธ
๐ฐ Valuation:
ICFC remains attractively valued with healthy financials, making it one of the stronger agricultural names on the EGX, but technical confirmation is still required before committing new capital. ๐
๐ The Pulse:
Technically, the stock has just reclaimed the 200-day Moving Average, which is an encouraging first step. ๐
However, the price is still trading inside a large triangle consolidation pattern. ๐
This is not an ideal entry point, as the breakout has not yet been confirmed. โณ
My preferred strategy is to wait for a confirmed close above 15.83 EGP before entering the trade. โ
A successful breakout would open the path toward the first target at 17.00 EGP. ๐ฏ
The second upside target stands around 19.50 EGP if bullish momentum continues. ๐
๐งฑ The Key Structural Boundaries
๐ Breakout Trigger, 15.83 EGP.
Wait for a confirmed close above this level before entering.
๐ฏ First Target, 17.00 EGP.
The initial objective following the breakout.
๐ฏ Second Target, 19.50 EGP.
The next major upside target if momentum remains strong.
๐ Stop Loss, 15.20 EGP.
A close below this level invalidates the bullish setup.
๐ฏ The Verdict:
ICFC combines strong fundamentals with an attractive long-term outlook. ๐
Despite the improving technical picture, the current setup does not yet justify a new position. โณ
Patience offers the higher-probability trade. ๐ค
Wait for the triangle breakout above 15.83 EGP before considering an entry. โ
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