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Is SMCI in the Early Stages of Another Short Squeeze?SMCI is one of those stocks where the chart can look boring right up until it suddenly isn’t.
After zooming out, I think there is a legitimate argument that SMCI may be entering the early stages of another squeeze-type setup.
I want to be careful with the wording there.
I am not saying a short squeeze is guaranteed.
I am saying the combination of structure + short interest + possible catalysts is interesting enough that I think the setup deserves real attention.
The structure is what caught my eye first
On the larger daily chart, SMCI has spent months building a broad base.
Below current price, HDTL shows a dense cluster of projected AOAs around:
$27
$28
$30
$31
$32
$34
That is a lot of historical agreement underneath price.
Above current price?
The structure gets much thinner.
The next areas I care about are roughly:
$37–$38
$40
$45
$52
And that is where this starts getting interesting.
The $45 area is not just some random upside target I drew on the chart.
It lines up with the next major Projected AOA and also gets into the neighborhood of the larger descending trendline.
So if SMCI can reclaim $38, then build acceptance over $40, I think the market starts opening the door toward $45. And if $45 eventually breaks with real participation? Then the structure above gets even more interesting.
Now add the short interest
This is where the squeeze discussion comes in. As of the latest reported data, roughly 93.4 million SMCI shares were sold short, representing around 17%–19% of the float depending on the float calculation used. Short interest had also increased from the prior reporting period. That is meaningful. It does not mean shorts are automatically trapped. It does mean there is a large pool of potential future buyers if price starts moving against them. That is how I think about short interest, It is fuel. It is not the ignition. Something still has to force those positions to reconsider.
And that brings us to catalysts.
What could provide the ignition?
There are several possibilities.
Supermicro entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog and said it received more than $60 billion in new orders during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
The company is also guiding fiscal 2027 revenue to roughly $65B–$72B, well above where Wall Street expectations had been sitting before that forecast.
That matters because the fundamental debate around SMCI is not whether AI infrastructure demand exists.
It clearly does.
The debate is whether SMCI can convert that demand into sustainable revenue growth and acceptable margins.
The company is heavily exposed to the AI infrastructure cycle through systems built around NVIDIA Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra, with liquid-cooled rack-scale deployments becoming increasingly important.
NVIDIA itself says Blackwell continues to represent the majority of its system shipments while Vera Rubin has begun production shipments, with demand remaining strong enough that supply constraints are still an issue.
That gives SMCI several possible catalysts:
AI infrastructure demand remains stronger than feared
large customer/order announcements
better-than-expected margins
continued backlog conversion
strong Blackwell / Rubin deployment commentary
analyst upgrades or target increases
another strong earnings reaction
a broader AI infrastructure rally
And then there is the technical catalyst:
price itself.
Sometimes the catalyst for a squeeze is simply crossing the level everyone thought would hold.
The three scenarios I’m watching
🔵 BLUE 45%
This is currently my highest-weighted scenario.
SMCI reclaims $38, begins building acceptance above $40, and buyers start pressing into the thinner structure above.
If that happens while volume expands, I think $45 becomes a very realistic decision area.
And this is where the short interest becomes important.
If price starts approaching $45 while the fundamental narrative is simultaneously improving, some shorts may decide they no longer want to wait around and see what happens.
That covering can add fuel to an already advancing move.
And if SMCI eventually clears $45 + the larger descending trendline, I would start looking toward the next larger structural area around $52.
That is the setup where the words short squeeze start becoming much more interesting.
🟢 GREEN 35%
Still bullish.
Just slower.
SMCI repairs gradually:
$38 → $40 → consolidation → $45
Instead of a violent squeeze, we get a healthier grind higher.
Honestly, this might be the better long-term outcome.
It allows structure to develop and gives price time to prove that buyers are actually accepting higher valuations rather than just chasing momentum.
Shorts may still cover along the way, but it is controlled rather than explosive.
🔴 RED 20%
The bullish thesis weakens considerably if SMCI loses $34 and starts accepting back into the dense $30–$32 AOA cluster.
That would tell me the recent move was probably just another failed repair.
And this is important:
High short interest does not protect a stock from going down.
A company can remain heavily shorted for a very long time if the bearish thesis remains intact.
That is why I will never look at 17%+ short interest and automatically say:
“Squeeze incoming.”
Price still has to prove it.
The biggest thing I am watching
Volume.
Yesterday SMCI gained about 3.4%, but volume was only around 31 million shares versus roughly 46 million average. That is not what I would call breakout participation.
So if Blue is really developing, I want to see that change.
A break through $38 / $40 accompanied by expanding participation would mean much more to me than price drifting through those levels on light volume.
Because the squeeze equation is really:
technical breakout
1. catalyst
2. expanding volume
3. large short base
= potential forced buying
Not:
lots of shorts = moon
Bottom line
Do I think SMCI is definitely beginning another short squeeze?
No.
Do I think the conditions exist for one to develop?
Absolutely.
The short interest is there.
The catalysts are there.
The AI infrastructure demand is there.
And most importantly:
the chart is approaching levels where the structure begins to open up.
That is why $38 → $40 → $45 matters so much to me.
If price earns those levels with real volume, this gets very interesting very quickly. 
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QSR vs. McDonald’s: Same Industry. Two Opposite Trends. Your PicTwo restaurant giants. One indicator. A very different message.
Put Restaurant Brands International (QSR) and McDonald’s (MCD) side by side on the weekly chart, with the 50-week EMA, and the contrast is striking.
🟢 QSR: Buyers are defending the trend
Price remains above a rising 50-week EMA, with the recent pullback testing that trend area. Buyers still have something to defend.
The next challenge? The $80–82 area , where previous advances have stalled. Holding the EMA and clearing that resistance would strengthen the bullish case. A sustained weekly break below the average would weaken it.
🔴 MCD: A big name facing a difficult chart
McDonald’s is trading below a falling 50-week EMA, with lower highs and lower lows defining the recent decline.
The $240–250 area is worth watching against previous weekly lows. But support alone does not confirm a reversal. I would want to see a base develop, a higher low, and eventually a reclaim of the weekly EMA.
My technical pick today: QSR.
Its weekly structure looks stronger. That does not make it an automatic buy: the entry price and distance to invalidation still matter.
MCD could offer a recovery opportunity, but the chart has yet to confirm that buyers have regained control.
The 50-week EMA is my trend filter, not a guarantee. Weekly closes matter more than intrawEEK moves.
🔥 If you could own only ONE for the next 12 months, which would you choose?
QSR’s stronger trend or MCD’s potential comeback?
Drop your ticker below and the ONE signal that would make you change your mind. Let’s compare the reasoning behind the picks.
Technical analysis based on the displayed weekly charts. Educational purposes only; not investment advice.
Laurent - Private Investor
✅ DL INVEST | Community Leader
NIO to $60 - April 1st, It's no joke - 2026Everyone is watching stocks get battered. The geopolitical headlines are relentless, the sentiment awful, and the retail crowd has long since given up. Good. That’s usually when the chart starts doing something interesting.
NIO Inc has corrected over 90% from its all time high. It has spent years inside a punishing downtrend channel, grinding the patience of anyone still holding. And then, quietly, when no one is looking. . resistance breakout, something that has not printed in over 5 years: A higher low. The first since 2020.
On the above 3 week chart a number of reasons now exist for a bullish outlook, they include:
The first higher low since 2020 has printed. This is not a minor development. For five years NIO made nothing but lower lows. That sequence has now been broken. In technical analysis, a change in market structure is the earliest and most reliable signal of a trend reversal. Look left, is this time really different?
Breakout from the multi-year descending channel. Price action has broken out from a descending channel that has contained the downtrend since 2021. A breakout from a channel of this duration, on this timeframe, is not noise. This is the market telling you something.
Return to legacy support and confirmation. The horizontal support level that held price in the pre-breakout era has been retested and held. Former resistance, now support. Classic, significant, textbook.
Bullish divergence. A confirmed positive divergence with price action on this timeframe is not a blip that fizzles out in a handful of weeks. It means something considerably more dramatic.
The measured move is extraordinary. The prior cycle took NIO from low single digits to over $60. The measured move from the current base, when applied to the breakout point, produces a forecast consistent with a return to all-time highs. Yes, really.
Forecasts:
1st, $12 - the first meaningful resistance zone.
2nd, $22 - mid range resistance from the descent. The point where former support becomes a serious test.
3rd, $60 - the measured move. The all-time high area, the moment the crowd arrives and declared it’s obvious. By then, the work is already done.
What about the downside?
A 3 week close back inside the descending channel invalidate the thesis. The higher low needs to hold.
The crowd
Right now, NIO is associated with a long list of grievances: competition from BYD, cash burn, Chinese regulatory risk, US tariff uncertainty, dilution, and a stock that has done nothing but disappoint for years. The sentiment is universally poor. The comments on any bullish NIO idea are merciless. (Sarcasm alert: obviously this is the perfect time to avoid it entirely.)
History does not repeat. But it rhymes. Loudly.
Conclusions
Alright, here’s the idea in plain English because the market doesn’t care about your feelings, and neither does my chart. NIO has spent five years being absolutely terrible. It has corrected over 90%, burned capital, missed targets, and provided ample opportunity for anyone who owned it to question every decision they’ve ever made. And yet here we are. A 3-week chart. A higher low. A channel breakout. The measured move pointing at $60.
The chart doesn’t know about the bad headlines. It doesn’t read Twitter. It doesn’t know that NIO is the stock everyone loves to mock at dinner parties. It just prints candles, and right now, the candles are telling a different story to the one you’ve been hearing.
Ww
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Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. It is not investment advice. It is not advice of any kind. It is a person, on the internet, looking at lines on a chart and writing things down. If that sentence describes the entirety of your research process before committing real money to a position, then the chart is not your problem.
I hold no position in NIO at the time of writing. I could be completely wrong. The company could announce something catastrophic tomorrow. The chart could fail. Markets do that. They’re allowed.
Do your own research. Manage your own risk. Don’t size into anything you aren’t prepared to watch go to zero. That’s the deal. It always has been.
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COIN — Final Correction Before the Next Major Bullish WaveCOIN remains inside the long-term ascending structure that has developed from the 2022–2023 cycle lows.
The current move still looks like a large correction within that broader uptrend. After topping near the $400 area, COIN has continued to retrace toward the lower section of the long-term rising channel. Based on the current channel geometry, I expect the final stage of this correction to develop between now and roughly April–June 2027.
The key area I am watching is around $153. As long as COIN continues to respect the lower boundary of the long-term ascending structure, the larger bullish framework remains valid.
Once this correction is completed and price confirms a reversal from the lower part of the channel, I expect COIN to begin its next major bullish wave.
The first important upside area is around $440. If price successfully breaks through the previous major resistance structure, the move could then expand toward approximately $770, followed by the $980–$1,150 region.
My primary long-term target is around $984–$1,156, which corresponds to the upper section of the long-term ascending channel under the projected path shown on the chart.
The final upside level will depend heavily on the speed of the rally. If COIN rises more gradually, the upper boundary of the channel will continue moving higher over time, allowing a higher eventual target. A faster move would reach the same structural resistance earlier and therefore at a lower price.
My expected path is therefore:
current correction → major support around $153→ final bottoming process → new bullish expansion → $440 → $770 → $980–$1,150
The main condition for this thesis is that the long-term ascending channel remains intact. A sustained breakdown below that structure would invalidate the current projection. 
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Fed raises rates as SK Hynix negotiates with IntelIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) shares were up 3.2% in pre-market trading on Thursday, while SK Hynix rose 2.6%, after Reuters reported that both companies are negotiating the possibility of manufacturing memory chips in the United States for the first time. Options would include leasing part of Intel’s future Ohio plant or creating a joint venture with major cloud computing companies. Neither party has confirmed a finalized agreement.
The market was also reacting to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 3.75%-4%, in its first rate hike in three years. The Nasdaq was virtually flat, in a session in which the impact of higher interest rates on technology valuations contrasted with the boost from investment related to artificial intelligence.
For Intel, an agreement with SK Hynix could help improve the utilization of its manufacturing capacity and strengthen its foundry business. The unit generated just $293 million from external customers in the latest quarter, compared with $5.77 billion in total revenue. The Ohio plant, whose investment could reach $100 billion, has remained slowed since 2025 amid lower-than-expected demand.
For SK Hynix, manufacturing in the United States would allow it to bring part of its production closer to the U.S. market at a time of political pressure to relocate advanced semiconductor manufacturing. It could also facilitate access to additional capacity for HBM memory, used in data centers that are driving demand associated with artificial intelligence. Any agreement involving advanced technology could also require authorization from South Korean authorities.
On the daily chart, Intel is trading around $100-$103, above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, located at approximately $94, $98-$99 and $75, respectively. The RSI remains between 54 and 61 points, while the MACD remains positive. Support is located at $94-$99, while resistance is at $113-$115. Confirmation of the agreement could put that resistance to the test, while a deterioration in the negotiations would shift the focus back towards the lower support level.
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Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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OKTA — AI Agent Security: A Sector Worth WatchingThe rise of AI agents raises a critical question: who controls what they can access and what they are allowed to do?
Identity security could become an increasingly important part of this transformation. With its dedicated AI agent security offering, Okta is positioning itself in this emerging market.
On the daily chart, the technical structure looks constructive: higher highs and higher lows, price holding above the Ichimoku cloud, and a fresh push higher following consolidation.
The 50-day EMA is a key reference to monitor. A controlled pullback followed by a bullish reaction at this moving average would strengthen the continuation scenario. Conversely, a break below it, combined with a loss of the latest consolidation low, would weaken the setup.
Following the recent advance, entry discipline matters. I would watch for either a successful retest of the breakout area or a new consolidation that establishes clear support.
A compelling theme, a constructive chart, and a stock worth keeping on the watchlist.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Laurent - Private Investor
✅ DL INVEST | Community Leader
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LITE Surges: Why AI Investors Are Repricing Optical Networking? AI Money Is Looking for the Next Infrastructure Theme
Against a backdrop of higher rates and broad pressure on technology stocks, Lumentum (LITE) surged roughly 9.6% on September 16, making it one of the strongest performers in the S&P 500. Concerns over the sustainability of AI capital spending have recently increased, but money is not simply leaving the AI trade. Instead, investors are rotating toward infrastructure segments where orders are clearer and earnings growth is already becoming visible. Optical networking is increasingly one of those areas.
As AI data centers expand, the bottleneck is no longer just GPU supply. Larger clusters require dramatically more data to move between servers, racks and data centers, accelerating the transition from 800G to 1.6T connectivity. Bandwidth, latency and power efficiency increasingly determine the performance of AI infrastructure, raising the strategic importance of optical modules, optical components and switching technologies.
Compared with simply adding more GPUs, network upgrades are becoming a necessary part of the next phase of AI infrastructure investment. That is one reason optical networking stocks are attracting renewed attention.
Lumentum’s Growth Is Already Showing Up in the Numbers
More importantly, this story is no longer based purely on expectations. Lumentum’s latest quarterly revenue reached $1.006 billion, up 109% year over year and 24.5% sequentially. Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 50.4%, while operating margin reached 36.6%.
For the next quarter, the company expects revenue of $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion, with non-GAAP operating margin rising further to between 39.5% and 40.5%. Growth is therefore no longer coming from revenue expansion alone. Profitability is improving at the same time.
This puts Lumentum in a particularly important stage of its growth cycle. As higher-value products account for a larger share of revenue, incremental sales may not require proportional increases in operating costs. That creates operating leverage. If this trend continues, earnings could grow significantly faster than revenue, potentially changing how investors value the company.
1.6T and OCS Open Up a New Growth Runway
At the product level, 1.6T cloud modules and optical circuit switching, or OCS, are emerging as key growth drivers. 1.6T products address the higher-bandwidth requirements of next-generation AI data centers, while OCS gives Lumentum exposure to a broader upgrade in network architecture. Management has already indicated that both businesses are beginning to contribute to growth.
This also means Lumentum’s AI story is becoming broader than simply selling more optical components. If 1.6T volumes continue to rise and OCS develops into a meaningful business, the company could move further into higher-value parts of the AI data-center infrastructure stack. That could support an additional improvement in both revenue quality and margins.
After the Rally, the Market Is Pricing in High Expectations
The rapid rise in the share price, however, changes the key question. The main risk for LITE is no longer whether AI demand exists. It is how much future growth the market has already priced in.
If hyperscaler capital spending slows, order growth weakens, or the ramp in 1.6T and OCS falls short of expectations, Lumentum’s elevated valuation could amplify downside volatility.
Expectations also become harder to satisfy after a major rerating. Earlier in the cycle, evidence of stronger demand alone could support the stock. Going forward, investors are likely to focus much more closely on order growth, margin expansion and whether earnings guidance can continue to exceed expectations.
The next phase therefore depends on three variables: whether 1.6T shipments continue to accelerate, whether OCS develops into a meaningful revenue contributor, and whether margins can keep pace with current expectations.
If those indicators continue to strengthen, Lumentum’s valuation rerating will remain supported by improving fundamentals. If they do not, the high expectations already embedded in the share price could leave far less room for execution mistakes. Why I am still bearish for adobe? price action is everything ADBE remains in a clear weekly bearish market structure, characterized by a persistent sequence of Lower Highs. From 634.59 down to 294.53, every major recovery has failed below the previous swing high, demonstrating that rallies have repeatedly been sold. The current rebound from the ~190–200 area has not yet broken the most recent major Lower High at 294.53. Therefore, this recovery can technically be interpreted as a retracement within the broader downtrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. As long as price remains below 294.53 and continues to form Lower Highs followed by Lower Lows, the bearish structure remains intact. In my opinion, this leaves room for ADBE to move lower again. A sustained break above 294.53 would be an important structural development that could invalidate or weaken this bearish thesis.
Deep technical explanation — ADBE Weekly
The most important feature on this chart is not one individual red candle; it is the market structure.
Notice the pattern:
LH → sell-off → new low → retracement → another LH → sell-off
This is the classic structure of a bearish trend.
Why Lower Highs matter
In an uptrend, buyers are able to push price above the previous swing high:
Higher High → Higher Low → Higher High
But in a downtrend, rallies repeatedly fail before reaching the previous significant high:
Lower High → Lower Low → Lower High → Lower Low
That is exactly what your ADBE weekly chart has been showing.
The important question therefore isn't:
"Can Adobe bounce?"
Of course it can.
The more important question is:
"Can Adobe break the bearish market structure?"
So far, based on this chart, that has not happened.. 
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