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UK 10Y Gilt Yields: Regime Change or Final Rejection?Overview TVC:GB10Y UK 10-year gilt yields have spent four decades in one of the cleanest descending channels in financial history. That regime broke post-2020, marking a potential shift from suppressed rates to a structurally higher yield environment. Yields are now pressing against a major decision zone — one that could define the next multi-year move. The Big Picture From the 1980 peak of ~17%, yields traced a relentless downtrend through disinflation, globalisation, and four decades of monetary easing. The COVID low marked the logical terminus of that era. Since then, the long-term channel has broken — driven by inflation, fiscal expansion, and tightening liquidity conditions. The low in yields is likely in. The question is what comes next. Current Structure Following the 2020 lows, yields have built a rising base and formed an ascending triangle into long-term horizontal resistance. Flat top. Rising lows. A textbook bullish continuation pattern — now compressing directly into the 4.5–5% zone that acted as a floor throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. This is not just a technical level. It is a macro inflection point. The Decision Zone: Two Scenarios 4.5–5% should be treated as a range, not a precise line. 1) Break and hold above resistance Confirms the higher yield regime and opens the path toward 6%+ over time Tightening financial conditions across the broader economy Sustained pressure on mortgage holders and UK government borrowing costs Raises the probability of fiscal stress — potentially disorderly 2) Rejection at resistance Signals continuation of a broad multi-year range Suggests the market is not yet ready for sustained higher yields Could align with slowing growth, disinflation, or direct policy intervention Macro Implications If yields break higher and sustain, the consequences are tangible: debt servicing costs rise materially, housing affordability deteriorates further, and risk assets face tighter liquidity conditions. A disorderly move would raise the spectre of a gilt market stress event — and force a policy response. Conclusion The long-term trend has already shifted. Forty years of falling yields is behind us. But confirmation of the next leg depends entirely on how price reacts at this resistance zone. This is a decision point, not a confirmed breakout. What happens at 4.5–5% over the coming months will matter — not just technically, but across the entire UK economy. b]What I'm Watching Monthly closes relative to the 4.5–5% range Follow-through and momentum after any breakout attempt Signs of rejection, exhaustion, or policy intervention at resistance Not financial advice.
TVC:GB10Y
by GazzyT
US 10Y TREASURY: Nervousness ahead of Fed meetingThere are currently a lot of topics which are bringing insecurity among investors, which is one of the main reasons for a huge swing in the 10Y Treasury yields since February this year. The first place is the US macro picture which is bringing some of the latest data pointing to a weaker than expected growth of the US economy. As per posted second estimate of Q4 GDP Growth, the US economy grew only 0,7% q/q, while the market was expecting to see at least 1.4% for the same period. Adding to this potential for increased inflation due to surging oil prices, the outlook for the future economic output does not look as bright as previously expected by investors. US Treasuries are reacting with a strong shift, from 3,93% at the beginning of March, till 4,28% reached on Friday. The nervousness of the market is expected also to stay active during the week ahead. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, when the Fed will post their economic projections. Considering the current unstable macro environment and geopolitical developments, the market will very closely listen to the speech of Fed President Powell, and act accordingly. As per charts, the level of 4,3% will be tested, however, some relaxation is possible after that level is reached. In this sense, the level of 4,21% will be the one to watch in the coming period.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
S&P 500, Oil Shock, and Why Recession Risk Is Rising?Almost two years ago, in my post “ A Recession Is Coming - Brace for Impact ”, I talked about the inverted yield curve as a warning sign. Now the curve has already un-inverted, and that part matters a lot. In my opinion, the inversion is usually the warning, and the un-inversion is often when the economy starts to feel the pressure that the bond market had already priced in earlier. The New York Fed’s model, updated with data through January 2026, shows a January 2027 recession probability of 18.8% The U.S. economy was already slowing down before this recent oil shock and the rising tension in the Middle East. U.S. real GDP growth for Q4 2025 was revised down to 0.7%, versus 4.4% in Q3, and the unemployment rate in February 2026 was 4.4%. That is not a collapse, but it is not a strong backdrop either. In my recent post, “ S&P and a very timely correction for the U.S. president ”, I mentioned this chain: Higher Oil Price --> Higher Inflation --> Higher Rates (or fewer cuts) --> Lower Corporate Profits --> Lower Equities I still think that chain is very relevant. Why? Because this is not just about oil going up on a headline. Oil is up sharply, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption is threatening a route that carries a very large share of global oil supply, more than 20%. If this persists, it can push transportation costs, production costs, and consumer costs higher again. That is how a geopolitical shock turns into a macro problem. And we have seen this type of reaction before. During major geopolitical conflicts that affected energy markets, like the 1973 oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian shock, the 1990 Gulf crisis, and even the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, oil moved higher, inflation pressure increased, and equities came under stress. Of course every cycle is different, but the pattern is often similar: when energy becomes more expensive, margins get tighter, growth slows down, and the S&P starts repricing that risk. This is where the word stagflation becomes important. For anyone new to the term, recession means slower growth, weaker demand, and a softer labor market. Stagflation is when growth slows down while inflation stays high or moves higher again. That is a much more difficult environment for the market, because the Fed cannot support the economy as easily if inflation is still being pushed up by energy. So even if growth weakens, policy may stay tighter than the market wants. Then we have the private credit side of the story. This part is also important. When firms like Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and BlackStone among others, start limiting withdrawals in private credit funds, it tells us something. It doesn't automatically mean crisis but it does mean that liquidity is not as strong as it looks in calm markets. That is the kind of thing we need to watch closely, because credit stress can spread into risk assets very quickly. So for me, the bigger picture is this: Old yield curve warning still matters Growth was already slowing Oil shock is adding fresh inflation pressure That limits how supportive the Fed can be And private credit is starting to show signs of stress That doesn't mean 2026 has to become another 2008 GFC. The structure of the risk is different. But it means that the probability of recession or even stagflation is higher than many people want to admit right now. So when I look at the S&P 500 chart here, I do not just see a technical setup. I see a market that may still be underpricing a macro environment that can get worse before it gets better. What do you think? Do you think a recession is looming? Share your thoughts with me in the comments.
TVC:US10Y
by SamanFx0
US 10Y TREASURY: Volatile on inflation riskMiddle East tensions, rising oil prices and weakening job market had a huge impact on 10Y US Treasuries during the previous week. There has been significant volatility, where yields sharply rose from 3,92% up to 4,18%, closing the week at 4,13%. Due to conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil was significantly increased, threatening a new wave of inflation across developed economies, but also in the US. This will make the Fed's decision to cut interest rates extremely difficult. If we add to that evidently weakening US jobs market, then we have the worst combination in the economy called stagflation - weak economic output and high inflation, an extremely difficult task for any central bank. Such a situation brings an additional layer of uncertainty among investors. Volatility might continue also during the week ahead. Again on Friday important data will be released. The PCE data and JOLTs will be posted, which might bring additional nervousness to the market, especially if inflation shows persistence. In this sense, the 4,2% might easily be tested in the week ahead. On the opposite side, a short pull-back toward the 4,1% might be an option.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - Plans Remain UnchangedLet’s return to TVC:US10Y In the original idea, we outlined the main plan of events: A new impulse has appeared, based on which initial targets can be set. First, we expect a corrective move in the 4.2-3.9 range, followed by a downward continuation. Key targets: 3.25 - local correction 2.91 2.68 Potential move from current levels: ~30-35% On a broader scale, yields should move much lower, but that will be discussed in other ideas. A return to 5.01 seems very unlikely. Even if it happens, the targets remain the same. --- Liked the idea? Hit Boost 🚀 Disagree? Share your targets in the comments. ---
TVC:US10YShort
by NotBoringTrading
US 10Y TREASURY: Rising stagflation risk Although the 10Y US Treasury yields were holding ground above the 4% during the week, still, Friday's PPI data moved yields toward the lower grounds, closing the week at 3,96%, after reaching 3,94%. January PPI data came hotter than expected, with 0,5% surge for the month and 2,9% y/y. Core PPI reached 3,6% y/y. The cautious positioning of investors reflected expectations that hotter inflation data could reinforce the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady, prompting some bond buyers to lock in existing yields. At the same time, markets were digesting recent economic signals, including stronger producer price pressures that could complicate the outlook for rate cuts. After a sharp drop in yields during the last two days of the week, it could be expected some short reversal as of the start of the week. In this sense, the 4,0% could be tested for one more time. Still, it should be considered that Friday brings NFP data, which could bring volatility back also on the Treasury market. On the downside, the 3,93% level has been shortly tested on Friday, which is the lowest level from October last year. The next level to the downside could be 3,86% however, the probability for it is extremely low at this point. Depending on macro data, this level could be watched in a longer period of time, and certainly not for the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
RATES DOWNAnybody looking to refinance a loan? The chance may be yours later this year (assuming credit is available and banks are lending...) The 10Y broke down this week officially. Broke below the channel Broke below the 200 weekly sma. WOW and closed below it just now. This means recession is here right now. Rates break down like this at the beginning of downturns, or after downturns have already begun. Equities are beginning to price this in. Expect -25% at least in the indexes (SPY, QQQ, DJI) Expect even larger losses in companies that are highly leveraged with debt and tied to Ai. I am in cash, and Puts. (Not financial advice)
TVC:US10YShort
by MonetaryRebel
2
Key Support Test on the US 10‑Year YieldLooking at the US 10‑year yield daily chart, you’ll see I’ve kept a couple of old trend lines on there—because they have a habit of becoming relevant again. And that’s exactly what’s happened. The old downtrend from the May 2025 high is now acting as support, lining up perfectly with the April 2025 support line around 3.98%. With today being Friday, the weekly close matters. The real question is: does 3.98% hold? (Not investment advice.)
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
How to Read Long-Term Interest Rate Structure Using the 20 EMALong-term yields reflect growth expectations and inflation pressure in the broader economy. This chart shows the U.S. 10-Year Yield on the daily timeframe, using the 20 EMA as a structural guide. Rather than predicting direction, the goal is to understand behavior. What the 20 EMA Represents • When price holds above the 20 EMA, long-term rate pressure is building • When price loses the 20 EMA and fails to reclaim it, longer-term momentum begins cooling • Repeated rejection at the 20 often signals expansion exhaustion • Sustained closes back above can reflect renewed inflation/growth pressure Long-term yields move differently than short-term yields. The 10Y reflects expectations — not immediate policy sensitivity. Why This Matters When long-term yields trend higher: → Growth expectations are strengthening → Equity multiples can face pressure → Duration-sensitive assets often react When long-term yields trend lower: → Inflation expectations cool → Equity valuations can stabilize → Risk appetite may improve (depending on short-term structure) This is not about trading bonds directly. It’s about understanding the macro backdrop. Current Structure Right now the daily structure is showing: • Recent loss of the 20 EMA • Lower highs developing • Momentum cooling relative to prior expansion That reflects compression in long-term expectations rather than acceleration. As always, this is structural observation — not a forecast. The 20 EMA simply helps define whether longer-term pressure is expanding or compressing. ⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐ Short-term yields (2Y) reflect policy sensitivity and liquidity pressure. Long-term yields (10Y) reflect growth and inflation expectations. When both trend higher together → tightening conditions are reinforced. When both trend lower together → liquidity conditions typically improve. When they diverge → regime transition, rotation, or volatility can emerge. Structure leads. Assets respond.
TVC:US10Education
by codymiller12727