2- How I choose the stocks to followVery broad topic, I hope I manage to put the topics in order
--What to look for?--
When looking for something (not just in trading but in any field), the starting point is to clearly define what you need because this avoids wasting time in the search or ending up with the wrong thing
You need to have a clear idea of what kind of stock you want to look for based on your way of trading or investing, a few examples to explain better:
-If I want a stock to buy and "leave there", you should aim for something that tends to always go up even if little by little, like an S&P 500 ETF or an insurance stock
-If I look for something more dynamic, you should aim for sectors with the highest hype, like AI currently or EVs a couple of years ago
-If we prefer shorting, we should look for stocks with a high P/E that might have run up a lot (too much) due to some rumors/expectations
This is to say that there is no good or bad stock, but everything depends on what interests the individual trader
Every stock has its own characteristics (which are very many) so I try to identify the main ones that I give the most weight to
--Stock Characteristics: 1- Business and sector of belonging--
The most important characteristics of all, in my opinion, are the business and the sector of belonging
What the company produces or sells is absolutely the first thing I evaluate in the analysis of a stock; I read the company description carefully.. I wonder if there is a demand for that service or product and above all if there could be more or less of it in the future
It is also important to understand if the company is a leader for its products/services and possibly who the main competitors are
Rarely does a stock move alone (something that mostly happens following specific news or quarterly earnings)
Much more often a stock moves together with its entire sector and therefore it is important to understand which group it belongs to in order to evaluate how it will be influenced, some examples
The most current one.. the race to provide new AI services requires datacenters, electricity, and servers so all these sectors are growing strongly as well as the stocks belonging to them
If a new conflict starts and the ones that benefit are defense and drone stocks because many of the weapons are single-use (missiles, drones, munitions) and therefore need to be continuously replenished
Or, in the opposite scenario, if an interest rate hike is expected, sectors that rely heavily on debt will be penalized more, like construction
In the pharmaceutical sector, however, there is often an exception: when good news arrives for the development of a drug, direct competitors drop
The sector of belonging can also bring a certain seasonality, for example, luxury stocks tend to rise near Christmas
Basically, I think that before choosing a stock you need to choose the sector to look for it in very well because it will have a huge influence on the future trend of the stock
--Stock Characteristics: 2- Capitalization--
In second place in importance for me is the size of the company
In the same sector there are always companies of different sizes, ranging from "giants" to "startups"
The giants help identify the direction of the sector and often act as standard-bearers, for example Nvidia for semiconductors or Hermès for luxury
The size of the company brings another important factor with it: liquidity
With the "giants" there is much more stock trading and therefore the bid-ask spread in the book is much smaller than that of a mid or small cap (which would be the difference between the selling and buying price)
Another important factor is that on large stocks there are more institutional investors (banks, funds, and similar) and this leads to a more predictable price movement thanks to the study of volumes
Large companies also tend to have a more gradual price movement with lower volatility because thousands/millions of shares are required to move the price in one direction
The main characteristic of small/mid caps, on the other hand, lies precisely in their high volatility; they can easily make daily movements of 6-10% which entail rapid gains (or losses)
--Stock Characteristics: 3- Current Valuation--
Third place in the things I look at is the current price
All stocks fluctuate over time and it is important to understand if we are in a moment of overvaluation or undervaluation
Hardly ever does a stock always go up or down (there are some exceptions here haha), in general we move from periods where interest is higher to ones where it is ignored by the market
Here I look mainly at the chart trend, the revenue trend, and the current P/E (or Forward P/E as is fashionable now)
If I enter long with a stock hovering around its highs, the probability of taking home a good +30% is low (though there are many factors to consider, I will talk about it in the future)
On the contrary, entering at the lows opens the way to devastating gains like a double; I take the example of the SW SaaS sector which was sold off heavily just for "fear" that it would be replaced by AI—I work in the sector and I know very well that this is total nonsense.
Stocks are often accompanied by "expert" rating recommendations, over time I stopped looking at them because I got the idea that they are only used to manipulate the quotation for the exclusive advantage of the bank/broker
--Stock Characteristics: 4- Historical Trend--
The historical trend by looking at the chart is very important to me even if it is a close relative of the previous point, I would put it in fourth place
The first thing I look at is "how it moves" on the monthly chart; whether it has an increasing, decreasing, or lateral movement
Then I observe the trend of revenue and quarterly reports in past years
What I try to understand in this phase is whether it is a growing or declining company (declining companies I exclude and move on to other things)
Certain chart patterns then lead me to exclude a stock a priori; when I see a dome-shaped ("panettone") or pine-tree chart, I generally move on to something else
These are patterns linked to past speculative bubbles, PayPal or NIO or Enphase come to mind. BlackBerry could be an exception but only because it has transformed its business
--- My Research ---
There are various ways I use to look for stocks to add to my watchlists
1) The main one is certainly reading news and articles:
When I have time I like to keep updated on news and in particular on technology
For example, I had read that the USA had fallen behind China and Russia in space investments and that they would have to allocate a lot of funds to make up for the gap. This led me to delve deeper and consequently aim for some space stocks with which I made great gains
Sometimes I read news associated with the stocks I follow and this leads me to discover interesting competitors and companies in the same sector
Even generic news heard on the TV news can be useful if you reflect, an example:
We hear a lot about drone attacks.. so I asked myself: who are the main producers since so many are being destroyed? Who sells or produces the infrastructure to guide them (GPS, software, companies)? Who produces the defenses that are increasingly vital? Each of these questions is followed by research (which is easy with AI nowadays) and therefore names to put on the watchlist
For the news I listen to, I often ask myself: "who gains and who loses from this situation?"
To mention another one, two years ago I had heard about the obesity drug: it was said that demand was much higher than production capacity.. this led me to delve deeper and then invest in Eli Lilly and Novo making super gains
Another example: soon Robotaxis and autonomous driving cars will arrive in mass.. who produces the necessary HW and software? (the right answer could be rewarded with devastating gains)
To sum up, I think that if we are attentive to everything that surrounds us every day, we could catch great profit or investment opportunities!
2) The TradingView Community:
There are thousands (millions) of stocks and it is unthinkable to look at them all, so over time I have selected other traders who operate similarly to me and I read their posts and ideas
Then I look at the chart myself and make my own evaluations, but this helps save time and discover new stocks
In some cases, other traders indicate some stocks in chat that they think are good or ask me for advice on stocks I don't know and make me discover interesting opportunities
3) App that highlights hot stocks (I don't know if I can cite it.. just search for it)
For a couple of months I have been using this app that highlights stocks with the highest volume of messages exchanged
This helps me intercept those stocks where there is high hype
Furthermore, the newsletter provides me with an end-of-day summary with some clarifications on what happened and what triggered it
4) Screening
I use it little, but occasionally I do a search for stocks with increasing volumes to see where institutional investors are putting their money
-- My Watchlists--
The stocks that pass the selection are then put into watchlists
I have a main watchlist containing portfolio stocks and "hot" ones that have a setup that could trigger in the short term
The others I put in other consultation watchlists that I subdivide by country (USA, Italy, Germany)
Inside each of these I create sections where I subdivide stocks by sector of belonging, ordered by capitalization, putting big caps at the top and small caps at the bottom
There might still be something to write, but by now I have reached an exaggerated length; in case of doubts, feel free to put your question in the comments
If this article is also appreciated, I will proceed with the next one:
"3- How I decide my entries"
Thanks everyone for the time dedicated
Balinor 
Education
Long
SPY — Sunday Market Prep | August 17–21 The market enters the new week sitting in an interesting position.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76, down just 0.17% after setting a record close the day before at 7,798.99. The index still finished the week higher by roughly 0.4%. In other words, we are near record territory, but Friday showed that buyers are not operating without resistance.
Sunday futures have done very little to change that picture. S&P 500 futures were essentially flat/slightly higher after opening, which gives me no reason to force a directional conclusion before Monday.
That fits the technical map well.
The immediate battlefield
Friday finished around 776, almost directly between the important areas I am watching.
778 remains the primary upper decision area.
Below current price, I have a cluster of projected agreement at:
773 → 772 → 771
That creates a fairly simple framework.
Price is currently between decisions.
That is why the yellow scenario remains my highest-probability starting condition.
I am not saying SPY will spend the entire week chopping.
I am saying that, until one side proves control, I think negotiation between the current structure and 778 is more defensible than assuming immediate expansion.
The bullish case
For me, bullish does not mean:
SPY trades above 778 for a few minutes.
I want to see the market earn it:
break → acceptance → structure
If 778 is reclaimed and price begins establishing itself above that area rather than repeatedly falling back underneath, the green scenarios become substantially more credible.
From there, the chart opens into the low 780s and eventually the larger 784–786 area illustrated by the stronger bullish path.
The important distinction is that the first bullish move is not the trade thesis by itself.
Acceptance above the battlefield is the evidence.
The bearish case
The bearish thesis also needs sequential deterioration.
A rejection around 778 gets my attention, but it does not automatically activate the larger red scenario.
The more important information would be:
rejection → 773 fails → reclaim fails
Then the lower Projected AOAs at 772 and 771 become progressively more important.
If those areas continue producing reactions or negotiation, the market may simply be finding lower balance.
If they begin failing sequentially, however, the red scenario gains considerably more credibility and the deeper downside paths toward the upper/mid 760s become relevant.
Again:
One red candle is not the thesis.
Structural deterioration is.
Why this week could stay unresolved early
The economic calendar becomes much more interesting after Monday.
Monday begins relatively lightly with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Tuesday is considerably busier. Housing starts/building permits arrive at 8:30, Home Depot reports, industrial production and capacity utilization arrive at 9:15, and pending home sales are scheduled for 10:00.
Wednesday may be the most important policy day. Target and Lowe's report before/around the opening session, followed by the July 28–29 FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Thursday continues the consumer and economic read with Walmart and Deere earnings, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey at 8:30, and the Census Bureau's second-quarter Advance Services Report at 10:00.
One calendar clarification: Jackson Hole is not this week. The Kansas City Fed's 2026 symposium is scheduled for August 27–29.
The fundamental tension
Last week's information did not give the market a clean one-directional macro story.
Thursday's inflation data helped reduce immediate fears of another Fed hike and supported the record close. Friday then brought weaker consumer data and pushed the market slightly back from those highs.
That makes this week's major retail earnings especially useful.
Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart effectively give the market several different views into the U.S. consumer. After Friday's weaker retail-sales picture, I expect investors to care not only about headline earnings but also what management teams say about spending behavior and demand. That is an inference, but it is why I think these reports matter beyond the individual stocks.
The wildcard: Iran and oil
The geopolitical risk has not disappeared.
U.S.-Iran peace efforts remain stalled, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has still not fully normalized. Brent crude finished Friday at $88.52, up 1.67% for the session.
That matters because this is one catalyst capable of bypassing a calm technical progression.
A meaningful de-escalation could quickly relieve pressure through oil and inflation expectations.
A renewed escalation could create exactly the type of abnormal repricing represented by the more aggressive downside scenario.
I do not assign either outcome high confidence.
I simply refuse to leave it off the map.
My scenario ranking Sunday evening
Yellow — highest-probability starting condition
Negotiation around the current structure with repeated tests of 778 and the mid-770s. Neither side has earned control yet.
Green — strongest normal bullish resolution
778 breaks, gains acceptance, and begins acting more like support than resistance. That opens the path toward higher structure.
Red — credible but needs deterioration
Failure of current structure followed by loss of 773 and unsuccessful reclaim attempts. The 772/771 cluster then becomes the key lower battlefield.
The aggressive green and deep-red paths remain tail scenarios. I want substantially more evidence before giving either serious probability.
What would change my mind?
That is the entire purpose of this map.
I do not need to predict Friday's closing price on Sunday night.
I need to know what information changes the thesis.
Above 778 with acceptance: bullish probability increases.
Repeated rejection at 778: upside remains unresolved.
Hold 773–771: lower structure is still negotiating.
Lose 773, then 772/771 with failed reclaims: bearish probability rises substantially.
Remain trapped between the decision areas: no trade may be the correct trade.
And this week especially, I want to distinguish probability from tradability.
The most probable outcome may initially be chop.
That does not make chop the best place to trade.
I would rather wait for the market to show which side is gaining control and take the cleaner portion of the move than spend Monday trying to predict a weekly direction before the evidence exists.
The dotted paths are visual illustrations of possible scenario families, not candle-for-candle forecasts.
Monday does not have to tell us where Friday finishes.
It may only tell us which decision area matters next. 
Short
Short 
SPY Aug 17–21: Back at Equilibrium, With Expansion Levels on BotSPY enters the week of August 17–21 with price sitting almost directly on top of the model’s weekly equilibrium.
That is a very different setup from last week.
Last week, SPY began near the upper edge of the forecast distribution, leaving a large gap between price and the model’s center of gravity. This week, that gap has largely disappeared. The new weekly equilibrium sits at 778.01–778.85, placing the market near the center of the expected weekly distribution.
That makes the opening part of the week especially important.
Rather than beginning from an extended location, SPY is starting from an area where the market has room to establish direction on either side.
The first upside test is 782.96–784.64.
This is the immediate resistance area I will be watching. A sustained move through **784.64** would indicate that buyers are successfully moving SPY away from equilibrium and into the upper half of the weekly distribution.
If that happens, 789.59 becomes the next upside objective.
Beyond 789.59, the weekly upper extreme sits at 794.54. Movement into this area would represent a significant upside expansion relative to the week's starting distribution.
The important distinction is acceptance versus a temporary probe. A brief move above 784.64 followed by a return toward equilibrium would suggest that the market is still balanced rather than beginning a genuine expansion.
On the downside, 773.06–771.38 is the first major test.
As long as SPY holds this area, weakness can still be treated as rotation around the weekly equilibrium rather than a meaningful deterioration in structure.
A sustained break below 771.38, however, would shift attention toward 766.43.
Below that, 759.80 represents the extreme lower end of the weekly distribution.
Weekly Decision Map
Upper Decision Area: 782.96–784.64
Upside Path: 789.59
Upper Extreme: 794.54
Equilibrium: 778.01–778.85
Lower Decision Area: 771.38–773.06
Downside Path: 766.43
Lower Extreme: 759.80
Final Read
This week's SPY setup is unusually clean because price begins close to equilibrium. There is no need to predict direction before the market shows it.
The 778 area is the week's center of gravity
784.64 and 773.06 define the first meaningful boundaries around it.
Acceptance above 784.64 would favor upside expansion toward 789.59, with 794.54 available if momentum continues.
Acceptance below 773.06, particularly if 771.38 also fails, would favor downside expansion toward 766.43.
Until one side establishes control, movement around 778 should be treated as balance rather than a directional signal. Long
XAR BREAKS TO A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH — Is Aerospace & Defense Start
AMEX:XAR just closed at $296.73, after reaching $297.79, pushing through its previous all-time-high area.
But the ATH is only part of the story.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
On the weekly chart, XAR appears to have completed a large inverse Head & Shoulders formation.
The structure is interesting:
Left shoulder formed during the first part of 2026.
The deeper correction created the head.
Buyers stepped back in around the rising long-term trend.
The right shoulder held substantially above the major 2025 lows.
Price has now broken the ~$290–295 neckline / previous ATH zone.
That means two important technical events are happening together:
1. Breakout from a multi-month bullish reversal/continuation structure.
2. Breakout into price discovery above the previous ATH.
If the breakout holds, the chart opens potential upside zones around $320, $327 and eventually the $340–350 area based on the projection shown on the chart.
The level I would watch most closely now is not $320.
It is $290–295.
A successful retest of the old resistance as new support would make the breakout considerably more convincing. A weekly move back below that area would raise the possibility of a failed breakout.
FUNDAMENTALS ARE SUPPORTING THE CHART
XAR isn't a single defense contractor. It tracks a modified equal-weighted basket of U.S. aerospace and defense companies, which spreads exposure across the industry rather than allowing a few mega-cap names to dominate the ETF.
And the spending backdrop remains unusually strong.
At the 2025 Hague Summit, NATO members committed to moving toward 5% of GDP in defense and defense-related investment by 2035, including at least 3.5% for core defense requirements. European Allies and Canada had already increased combined defense expenditure by nearly 20% in real terms in 2025.
Meanwhile, S&P Global's 2026 aerospace & defense outlook describes strong commercial and defense demand, with suppliers increasing production to meet demand. It also points to the proposed U.S. 2027 defense budget of nearly $1.5 trillion, although the final enacted amount remains uncertain.
So this isn't simply a technical breakout occurring in isolation.
Price is breaking out while the industry's underlying demand cycle remains strong.
THE RISK
New ATH breakouts can also become crowded very quickly.
Supply-chain constraints remain an issue for aerospace manufacturers, higher production requires more capital, and future defense spending still depends on political and budget decisions.
So chasing a vertical move is very different from seeing the breakout confirmed.
For me, $290–295 is now the battlefield.
Above it → price discovery remains intact.
Below it → the breakout deserves another look.
What would you do here?
🟢 Buy the ATH breakout ?
🔵 Wait for a $290–295 retest ?
🔴 Too extended — stay away ?
I’m curious to see how traders are reading this one.
Long 
Adam Khoo’s 16 Golden Investment RulesFOCUS ON QUALITY. THINK LONG TERM. INVEST WITH DISCIPLINE.
1. The Stock Market Always Goes Up in the Long Run.
This long-term trend is driven by inflation, earnings growth and index re-balancing.
2. In the Short Term, nobody can predict where the market will go.
When we can make profitable guesses based on the existing price trend, markets can be completely irrational in the short-term. Be prepared for all eventualities.
3. Never act on the predictions and opinions of economists or market analysts.
Never make decisions based on predicting where the market is going in the short term.
4. Over the last 100 years, there have been 50 Corrections of More than 10%.
These 10% corrections that occur once every 2 years, are good buying opportunities.
5. Over the last 100 years, there have been 20 declines of more than 20%.
These bear markets (averaging -30% decline) that happen once every 5 years, are your golden buying opportunities.
6. Only invest in stocks of great companies with wide economic moats, consistent growth in sales, strong cash flow, high return of capital, strong growth catalysts and strong balance sheets.
7. Only invest in stocks of businesses you truly understand.
Invest in businesses whose products and services you use yourself. Avoid stocks that are outside your circle of competence.
8. Avoid investing in mediocre or low quality stocks no matter how cheap they appear.
Cheap crap is still crap.
9. A great business may be a lousy investment if you overpay above its intrinsic value.
A great business is only an excellent investment when you buy it below its intrinsic value.
10. Never give in to the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and buy hyped-up stocks that are overvalued or technically overextended.
11. Only invest with money you don’t need to use for at least 3-5 years.
An investment needs time to generate rewards after its 3rd to 5th year.
12. Buy shares of great companies consistently, whenever they are undervalued and whenever they are at technical support levels.
Always buy into a full position over 3-4 tranches.
13. We can never buy at the absolute bottom.
As long as we get a price that is fundamentally undervalued and technically supported, it is one of the many buying opportunities.
14. Always maintain a portfolio of at least 10 to 30 high quality companies with fairly equal allocation to each stock.
Speculative growth companies should have half a unit allocation.
15. Maintain a diversification over Growth, Defensive, Dividend & Speculative Growth Stocks.
16. Sell a stock the moment it fails to be a great business (economic moat deteriorates).
Sell a stock if you can deploy the proceeds into an even better investment (stronger moat, better value & higher growth).
Source: Adam Khoo / Piranha Profits
Long 
Long
Treasury movesThe two paths
Path A — Coordinated intervention / FIMA backstop (current policy)
Dollar: weakens against the yen but the Treasury market is alleviate from forced selling.
Treasuries: forced-seller pressure removed; yields more contained.
Stocks: modestly positive. Yields matter more than USD/JPY.
Slight tailwind to US multinationals; headwind to Japanese exporters. Reversal risk: if the rate gap doesn't close and intervention fails, expect a yen-carry unwind — sharp, short, global equity drawdown.
Bitcoin: mildlypositive. FIMA is dollar-liquidity provision (feeds the "they'll always print" thesis)
Path B — Japan sells Treasuries unilaterally (pre-July pattern)
Dollar: again, weekness against the yen, plus a credibility problem — largest holder liquidating = demand erosion and feeds the de-dollarization narrative.
Treasuries: direct supply increase; yields higher. Toward 5% on the 10-year the regime shifts from growth-fear to fiscal-credibility-fear.
Stocks: negative, scaled to the yield move. Multiple compression; hits small caps, real estate, utilities, high-multiple tech. Japan hurt twice (imported inflation plus rising Japanese Government Bond yields).
Bitcoin: split. bullish narrative (de-dollarization; mechanics bearish liquidation). Likely draws down with risk assets first.
Bottom line
Both paths weaken the dollar against the yen. The difference is what happens to the Treasury market underneath: A protects it, B stresses it.
Stocks clearly prefer A. Bitcoin's price prefers A while the bitcointhesis is fed by B.
Implications
Neither path argues for Bitcoin as a stabilizer in that sleeve — its short-run behavior is equity beta, not a hedge. Path B is the scenario the gold / commodity / non-USD sovereign sleeve exists for in an all-weather portfolio. There I said it. Follow the golden rule. Education 
RSP/SPY Signals Improving Market BreadthThe RSP/SPY ratio is showing improving relative strength, suggesting that market participation is broadening beyond the largest S&P 500 companies. After bottoming around 0.272 in May, the ratio has recovered toward 0.287, indicating that the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) has been outperforming the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY).
The technical structure has also turned constructive. RSP/SPY is currently trading above both the 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, with the 20-day EMA slightly above the 50-day EMA. This bullish moving-average alignment indicates improving relative momentum and supports the view that equal-weight stocks are beginning to gain leadership.
However, the ratio is approaching a stronger resistance near 0.296–0.298. A decisive breakout above these levels would provide stronger confirmation of sustained relative outperformance by RSP and could signal further improvement in market breadth.
Relative-Strength Phases
The chart can be divided into several distinct phases:
Phase 1 – August to October 2025: Relative Weakness
RSP/SPY declined during this period, indicating that large-cap stocks were outperforming the average S&P 500 stock. This suggested relatively narrow market leadership.
Phase 2 – October 2025 to February 2026: Broadening Participation
The ratio recovered significantly from its October 2025 low and moved higher into February 2026. This indicated that equal-weight stocks were gaining ground relative to SPY, pointing toward improving market breadth and broader participation.
Phase 3 – February to May 2026: Renewed Large-Cap Leadership
The ratio experienced a sharp decline from February into May 2026, eventually reaching approximately 0.272. This indicated a renewed period of large-cap outperformance, with the largest companies once again driving more of the S&P 500's performance.
Phase 4 – May to August 206: Recovery in Market Breadth
Since the May low, RSP/SPY has established a strong recovery, reaching approximately 0.287. This suggests that breadth has improved substantially, with the average S&P 500 company once again gaining relative strength versus the largest constituents.
Long 
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 32 of 2026 (10-14 AUG)QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
QQQ Weekly Recap Outlook
The QQQ weekly analysis delivered two winning trades last week.
A total of two trades were taken, and both finished as winners, resulting in a 100% win rate.
The breakout of the Pivot Zone resulted in a 41.5-point move, representing approximately a 6% upside move.
The retest of the Swing Zone then generated an additional 11.5-point move, representing approximately a 1.60% upside move.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 8
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 2
Win Rate: 75%
Index Options: 7 Trades (5 Wins / 2 Losses)
Futures Desk: 1 Trade (1 Win — ES)
Tactical Equities: 0 Trades
Result: Another deep green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops.
Given the potential for acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
Support Level 1 (714)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 714.
Long Scenario 2
Support Level 2 (707.5)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 707.5.
Long Scenario 3
Flip Level (726.5)
This is the primary Flip Level for QQQ to monitor. If price breaks above this level with a strong 4-hour candle breakout and subsequently returns for a retest, a long opportunity can be considered.
Trigger: Price must break above the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 726.5.
Short Scenario 1
Main Supply (735)
This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 744.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Long 
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 32 of 2026 (10-14 AUG)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
SPY Weekly Recap Outlook
Last week, SPY did not provide the retest we were waiting for, so no trade was taken on SPY. However, the bullish move toward all-time highs developed aggressively in the direction outlined in our previous outlook.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 8
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 2
Win Rate: 75%
Index Options: 7 Trades (5 Wins / 2 Losses)
Futures Desk: 1 Trade (1 Win — ES)
Tactical Equities: 0 Trades
Result: Another deep green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops.
Given the potential for acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (768)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 768.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (758.5)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this area and confirms support, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: Daily candle close below 755.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Long 
QQQ: Who blew up? The answer usually marks the lowThe weekly signal did its job and tagged target #1 at 665.25, bouncing 11.59% off the low. That part is mechanical and it is finished. What follows is discretionary, and I want the two kept separate.
My read is that the low is probably in, and the reason is who was selling into it.
The low printed on 29 July. On 30 July the first reporting landed, and on 31 July the detail: Situational Awareness, the AI fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, had gone from around $45B to roughly $10B, down 67% in July on reported leverage as high as 400%, liquidating its leveraged public book to Citadel at a discount. The fund was up 439% in the first half of the year. The selling happened before anyone reported it. The low came first, the name came second.
That order is the pattern, not a coincidence. When a market dislocates and a fund dies into it, the news of who died lands after the low. Desks feel it in the tape well before they know the name. Something is being liquidated, the size is wrong for the news flow, and the question going around between traders is who blew up, was it you. By the time the name is public the position is already gone. The forced seller does not come back either, because somebody liquidated at the low does not get a good re-entry . That supply is spent rather than sitting overhead waiting to be sold again.
The cleanest precedent is OptionSellers.com in November 2018. Naked short natural gas calls, the spike hit on 14 November, the accounts were liquidated that week, and the story broke on 19 November. The name arrived five days after the damage was done. Here it took one.
There is a second thread. The book Situational Awareness was forced to sell included SK Hynix, one of the two names carrying KOSPI. I published a quarterly idea on that index when it broke, arguing it fell because leverage sat on top of two-name concentration rather than because of anything about the companies. The forced seller in that decline and the forced seller in the AI complex turn out to be the same one. Two indices, one liquidation, and the second one explains the first.
Levels. 665.25 is where target #1 was tagged, and the 29 July low sits against it. Overhead is 731.62, the first Warsh FOMC event-range median, with further weekly stops at 743.18 and 720.06. Below, the lattice runs 609.61, 558.37, 511.44 and 468.45.
Bias: constructive short and mid term while that low holds. A weekly close back under it and this read is wrong, in which case the lower lattice is live and the mechanical signal reasserts itself.
To be plain about what this is. A mechanical target was hit, and the judgement about what comes next is mine, sitting on top of it. No position, timestamped call.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie. Long 
Short 
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