SPY/SPX - Mid Week Update (24-26 JUN)SPY/SPX - Mid Week Update
Risk Index Update
Current Market State: Short Term Bearish | Long Term Bullish
The Risk Index currently signals that the market may have transitioned into a short to medium term risk off environment. However, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish.
This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time.
Because the longer term structure remains bullish, we can continue looking for long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, the short term bearish shift suggests that supply zones may offer tactical short opportunities if price confirms weakness.
Scenarios / Prediction
Short Scenario
Trigger: A test of the 736 level followed by a daily close below can be used to establish short exposure.
Targets: 732 → 730 → 725
Invalidation: Daily close above 742
Long Scenario
Trigger: A test of the 725 level followed by a daily close back above can be used to establish long exposure.
Targets: 730 → 732 → 736 → 742
Invalidation: Daily close below 717
Premium Tip
Price can briefly trade below these bounce zones and create a deviation before reclaiming the level and closing back above it.
Because of that, aggressive entries can be taken after an hourly candle closes back above the level, but position size should remain small due to the additional risk.
The primary confirmation remains the daily close.
Position Management Rules
1. Take profits in stages because market direction can change very quickly in this environment.
2. After the first profit target is reached, move the stop loss on all remaining contracts to breakeven and turn the trade into a risk free position.
3. Always wait for a reaction from the level. We do not predict price. We react to price.
Notice: My previous SPY and QQQ content since 2025 is no longer visible following a TradingView content review. This included my regular weekly outlooks and mid week market updates.
I have been consistently publishing market research and will continue sharing new analysis and updates going forward.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
ETF market
Research 25.06.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +4.72 +0.64%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +14.59 +2.05%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
08:30 USA – PCE Price Index
08:30 USA – Durable Goods Orders
08:30 USA – GDP Growth Rate/GDP Price Index
08:30 USA – Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 USA – Personal Income/Spending
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:MU NYSE:BB NYSE:SNX NYSE:MKC NYSE:CMC
Other news:
NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX rose in sympathy to MU
NYSE:MRK Is Buying NASDAQ:TECH for $11.3 Billion or 73$ per share in cash
NASDAQ:QCOM forecasts $15 billion data center chip sales by 2029. Also announced a new partnership with Meta Platforms to produce central processing units for the social-media giant.
NASDAQ:WEN : traders on Reddit's WallStreetBets forum rallied behind the struggling burger chain, reviving the meme-stock playbook that powered GameStop in 2021.
NYSE:GLW today declared a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share. The dividend will be payable on September 29, 2026, to shareholders of record on August 31, 2026.
NASDAQ:PENG Becomes an NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA AI Factory Specialized Partner
NYSE:IBM company says it's produced the first sub-nanometer microchip
NASDAQ:KUST today announced it has entered into a binding agreement for the divestiture of its legacy video solutions division to Cycurion, Inc. NASDAQ:CYCU
AMEX:WYY announced that it has been selected as the single awardee of the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Cellular Wireless Managed Services (CWMS) 3.0 contract, a 10-year Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract consisting of a one-year base period and nine one-year option periods with a contract ceiling value of approximately $3.1 billion.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:TCOM NYSE:FUL NYSE:DRI NYSE:JEF
Other news:
NASDAQ:ABVX fell 26% yesterday after investors continued to price in safety concerns around obefazimod’s Phase 3 ABTECT data.
Anthropic has accused NYSE:BABA of “illicitly” accessing its frontier model Claude to harvest its capabilities.
NYSE:FMS : U.S. health regulator CMS proposed a smaller-than-expected increase to dialysis reimbursement rates
NASDAQ:CDNL nnounces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of 4,000,000 shares (approximately $292 million)
‼️ Additional
The EU has finally approved the trade agreement with the US — BBG.
Gold has given up all of its 2026 gains.
A $10 billion BTC options expiration this Friday risks worsening the market selloff — BBG.
🏢 IPO
NYSE:DPC – Doncasters Group / DPC Holdings Limited
Company manufactures complex precision cast components and nickel- / cobalt-based superalloys for aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets. Its parts are used in aircraft engines, gas turbines, defense, space and other high-performance systems where reliability is critical. Core thesis is exposure to aerospace production recovery, engine aftermarket demand and IGT demand from power generation.
Price: $33.00
Shares: 27.9M
Raised: $919.4M
LTM:
Revenue: $886.0M
Net Income: -$167.0M
Comparable public companies: NYSE:HWM , NYSE:ATI , NYSE:CRS , NYSE:TDG , NYSE:HEI , NYSE:GE
NASDAQ:DSC – DSC Holdings Ltd.
Company provides AI-powered software and transaction services for China’s used car industry. Its platform helps used car dealers move workflows online, manage operations and coordinate transactions. The company claims over 90% market share in operating systems for used car dealers in China, making it a niche software infrastructure play for the auto resale market.
Price: $17.00
Shares: 3.0M ADS
Raised: $51.0M
LTM:
Revenue: $96.8M
Net Income: -$13.5M
Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:UXIN , NYSE:ATHM , NASDAQ:CARG , NYSE:CVNA , NYSE:KMX
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:MU NYSE:BB NYSE:SNX NYSE:MKC NYSE:CMC NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX NYSE:MRK NASDAQ:TECH NASDAQ:QCOM NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:WEN NYSE:GLW NASDAQ:PENG NASDAQ:NVDA NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:KUST NASDAQ:CYCU AMEX:WYY NASDAQ:TCOM NYSE:FUL NYSE:DRI NYSE:JEF NASDAQ:ABVX NYSE:BABA NYSE:FMS NASDAQ:CDNL NYSE:DPC NASDAQ:DSC NYSE:HWM NYSE:ATI NYSE:CRS NYSE:TDG NYSE:HEI NYSE:GE NASDAQ:UXIN NYSE:ATHM NASDAQ:CARG NYSE:CVNA NYSE:KMX
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
SPY's Hourly Just Flipped to Bull. It Is Already Showing PANIC.SPY's Hourly Just Flipped to Bull. It Is Already Showing PANIC.
Yesterday's evening update noted that the 56-bar bear print
that defined SPY's Hourly for over a week got replaced by a
fresh bull announcement at CQI 55.09. This morning that bull
print is 12 bars old, CQI has held at 55.17, the thesis reads
LOW LONG, and Entry Signal shows FORMING. But the MIRROR state
is reading PANIC and the Short Score is at 1/3. The bull print
is alive but the system is immediately flagging stress around
it. The NR7 anti-signal and EXT MODE are both active. The Daily
has settled down after flipping thesis direction twice in two
sessions - it now reads Q3 neutral, GREEN light, with the
217-bar bull announcement still the standing read at CQI 69.83
and Entry Signal back to WAIT.
Resistance: 740.44-741.96 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 742.71-743.45 - the cluster above
Current price: 738.33
Support: 736.50-736.87 - key support from the last week
Key support: 732.45-733.34 - next shelf below
Below that: 730.84-731.14 - yesterday's tested low
Two paths from here:
The bull print holds and builds: Vol Elev climbs off the 16th
percentile floor, the FORMING signal upgrades, PANIC clears,
price reclaims 740.44. The Hourly's fresh conviction flip was
real and yesterday's low was the turn.
The PANIC is the tell: the bull print is too weak at CQI 55.17
to hold against the existing momentum, it gets replaced again
within a few sessions, price loses 736.50 and retests 732.45.
A bull print born inside PANIC with NR7 active and EXT MODE
still showing has a lot working against it.
The 72-bar bear announcement in the Last Ann data (CQI 68,
Bear direction) is still sitting there in the historical read,
carrying more conviction than the bull print that replaced it.
Whether the replacement sticks or gets overwritten again is
the open question.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
Correction on semiconductorsLooks like a clean 5-wave move down, which can be wave 1 or wave A of a bigger correction. Right now it's making a high ABC bounce. There is a resistance at 0.76-0.786 and 0.86-0.886 fibs - a reversal from this area makes sense. It can spike even higher to close the gap, but it doesn't have to.
SPY Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is reacting from a strong horizontal demand area after sweeping sell-side liquidity. SMC suggests buyers may defend this demand zone, driving price toward the imbalance and higher liquidity overhead.
--------------------
Stop Loss: 722.49$
Take Profit: 743.99$
Entry: 731.27$
Time Frame: 7H
--------------------
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
The VXX is warning us that something is coming!This video is for my subscribers where we go over all the important charts and we also go over the other open positions that I have with you folks that I didn't have a chance to go over with you all. Micron beat earnings but is it enough to save this market? There are warning signs that are saying its not over yet and don't let your guard down. Watch to see if Micron holds its gains tomorrow because if we see price action like all the other chip stock where they gap up and sell in the early morning then its telling you big money is selling into good news ( AKA EXIT LIQUIDITY) lets watch and see where these markets go!
My price targets for 06/24/2026
For research purposes only. This is not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own Due Diligence.
----Main Target----
CBOE:KEEX
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $156.77
Target gain: +3.50%
Previous close: $151.47
----Other Potential Targets----
CBOE:SNDU
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $55.08
Target gain: +2.50%
Previous close: $53.74
NASDAQ:OUST
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $45.61
Target gain: +1.00%
Previous close: $45.16
NASDAQ:SLGL
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $71.97
Target gain: +1.00%
Previous close: $71.26
NASDAQ:TSLQ
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $20.84
Target gain: +1.00%
Previous close: $20.63
NASDAQ:TSDD
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $8.81
Target gain: +1.00%
Previous close: $8.72
NYSE:AA
Trading date: 06/24/2026
Target price: $55.63
Target gain: +1.00%
Previous close: $55.08
OBV Trend Detection starting to flip red near the highsQQQ has had a monster run off the April lows, tagging fresh highs near 750 before stalling out. Price is now hanging around 719, and this is where things get interesting.
My OBV Trend Detection indicator is starting to print more and more red candles up here. That's the part I'm watching closely. When OBV trend rolls over while price is still near the highs, it tells me the volume conviction behind the move is fading — buyers aren't pushing with the same force that drove the rally. It doesn't mean "sell everything," but it's an early warning that the trend is losing its footing.
The next few days matter. If bulls step back in and price resumes upside, the red candles can reset and we're back in continuation mode. But if QQQ keeps drifting and can't reclaim momentum, the door opens for a deeper pullback.
The level I care about is 636 — the prior breakout shelf. A full mean-reversion back to that zone would be roughly -11.5% from here. Not a prediction, just the logical magnet on the downside if structure breaks.
For now: momentum is cooling, and the indicator is asking for proof. Bulls need to show up soon.
Not financial advice — just sharing what the chart and the indicator are telling me. 📊
QQQ , IdeaBased in our own TA , we know that QQQ is at a end of cycle! It´s a 12M cycle so this upward movement from past Months soon will result in a correction. It´s not a "if" situation, it´s a "when" .
There a few possible paths, and we´re posting the 2 most probable (for us).
1 - shooting to the stars straight away
2 - a huge fall , and then finalizes the movement
For better understandig of the drawings :
White Lines : end of cycle 12M divided by 3 main targets 686 , 843, 1073
Red Lines : end of cycle 6M divided by 3 main targets 887 , 979, 1097
It can finish any cycle definitely on the values above.
Green / Blue lines : smaller cycles that can give a broader view of the direction
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Join us !
SPY's Daily Just Flipped Back to LONG. The Hourly...SPY's Daily Just Flipped Back to LONG. The Hourly Didn't Get
the Memo.
Yesterday's post called the resolution of the five-session
cross-timeframe standoff, the Hourly won and the Daily stopped
arguing. One session later the Daily is arguing again. The
thesis flipped from MEDIUM SHORT back to MEDIUM LONG overnight,
the Direction reads Q1 LONG, the Light is GREEN, and the ACE
CQI jumped to 89.9, the highest Daily conviction read on SPY
this cycle. Meanwhile the Hourly is still RED, Q2 neutral,
with the 56-bar bear print at CQI 68.16 holding steady and
EXT MODE still active on the SYNTH Gate. Price dropped another
$10.81 yesterday and is sitting at 736.88 this morning, right
on top of the 736.50-736.87 key support. The Daily looked at
that and decided it was bullish. The Hourly looked at it and
didn't change its mind.
Resistance: 740.44 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 742.71-743.45 - the cluster above
Current price: 736.88
Support: 736.50-736.87 - the level price is sitting on now
Key support: 732.45 - next shelf below
Thesis line: 721.23 - the broader floor
Two paths from here:
The Daily is right: the CQI 89.9 read and the PARTIAL signal
mark this as a capitulation low, Vol Elev enters on a bounce,
price reclaims 740.44 and pushes toward 742. The Hourly's bear
print finally gets overridden.
The Hourly is right: the EXT MODE flag and the undecayed bear
print hold, 736.50 fails, price drops to 732.45. The Daily's
LONG flip was premature, the same way its SHORT flip yesterday
turned out to be a single-session read rather than a trend
change.
The Daily has now flipped thesis direction twice in two sessions.
MEDIUM SHORT yesterday, MEDIUM LONG today. That kind of
oscillation usually means the Daily is reacting to price rather
than leading it. The Hourly's bear print has been steady for
56 bars through all of it. Stability of conviction versus
reactivity of conviction is the real comparison this morning.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
Research 24.06.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.05 +0.42%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +4.82 +0.68%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
08:30 USA – The United States current account deficit
10:00 USA – New Home Sales
10:30 USA – EIA Crude Oil / Gasoline Stocks Change
16:00 USA – Fed Bank Stress Test Results
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:ICLR NYSE:KBH
Other news:
NASDAQ:PLSM Announces Strategic Partnership with Ouma Health to Expand Access to Remote Prenatal Care Across the United States
NASDAQ:BLZE announced a $335 million, five-year storage deal with CoreWeave.
White House executive order to ramp up U.S. quantum technology development. (secon day) NASDAQ:QNT
NASDAQ:TTWO : Rockstar Games Announces Pre-Orders for Grand Theft Auto VI
NASDAQ:MU Rises Premarket Ahead Of Q3 Report (which will be today on markets close)/ NASDAQ:SNDK
Trump highlighted NYSE:NOK $30 million investment to expand semiconductor testing.
NASDAQ:QCOM Explores Custom Chip Partnership With ByteDance as It Expands Beyond Smartphones
EU set to clear NASDAQ:PSKY $111bn takeover of NASDAQ:WBD
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:CBRS NYSE:FDX NASDAQ:PAYX VANTAGE:NG
Other news:
Fairmount Funds Management LLC, Director of Spyre Therapeutics sold $399.7M of
NASDAQ:SYRE
NYSE:BABA sues Pentagon over blacklist designation
‼️ Additional
NASDAQ:GOOGL shares will replace NYSE:VZ shares in the Dow Jones index at Friday’s market close on June 26.
HONEYWELL NASDAQ:HON BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPROVES SPIN-OFF OF HONEYWELL AEROSPACE $HONA
-- Spin-off distribution is expected to occur on June 29, 2026
-- Honeywell Aerospace will be a leading global tier-1 aerospace and defense supplier of mission critical systems and technologies
-- Honeywell Technologies will be a global leader of the industrial world's transition from automation to autonomy
-- $HONA WILL BE ADDED TO S&P100 AND S&P500 indexes and replace NASDAQ:HON and NYSE:CAG respectively
Wintermute, one of the world’s largest crypto market makers: BTC could fall to $59,000 amid the seasonal summer liquidity slump.
The US dollar continues to strengthen against G10 currencies, with the DXY index rising to a one-year high.
Due to the decline in NASDAQ:SPCX and NASDAQ:TSLA shares, Musk has lost his trillionaire status and is once again just a regular billionaire.
Trump accused companies of being slow to lower gasoline prices and ordered an investigation.
🔁 Business Combination / SPAC Deal
NASDAQ:CCXI – Churchill Capital XI / Agility Robotics
Agility Robotics, a humanoid robotics company, signed a merger agreement with Churchill Capital XI to go public through a SPAC business combination. The deal values Agility at a $2.5B pre-money equity value and includes a $200M PIPE at $10 per share. Core thesis is commercial humanoid robots for logistics, warehouses and industrial automation.
Pre-Money Equity Value: $2.5B
PIPE Financing: $200M at $10/share
Closing Conditions: shareholder approvals, regulatory clearances, Nasdaq listing and minimum cash requirement
Key points:
Agility holders signed voting support agreements
Sponsor agreed to lock votes and avoid redemptions
180-day lock-up for certain new holders
M. Klein & Company will advise the company for 2 years post-close
Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:SYM , NASDAQ:RR , NASDAQ:SERV , NASDAQ:TER , NYSE:ROK , NSE:ABB
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:ICLR NYSE:KBH NASDAQ:PLSM NASDAQ:BLZE NASDAQ:QNT NASDAQ:TTWO NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NYSE:NOK NASDAQ:QCOM NASDAQ:PSKY NASDAQ:WBD NASDAQ:CBRS NYSE:FDX NASDAQ:PAYX VANTAGE:NG NASDAQ:SYRE NYSE:BABA NASDAQ:GOOGL NYSE:VZ NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:CCXI NASDAQ:SYM NASDAQ:RR NASDAQ:SERV NASDAQ:TER NYSE:ROK NSE:ABB NASDAQ:HON $HONA
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
TOM LEE leading the charge in this new BULL MarketThank you for providing excellent analysis,
being on the right side of the trade
and helping retail with your public speaking on your own channel, podcasts, and of course CNBC.
I wish you continued success in you Granny shots ETF which is already over $1.5 Billion in AUM!
72.10 This is market analysis and education — not financial advice, and I'm not your financial advisor. AGQ is a 2x leveraged ETF that decays over time and carries issuer risk; it can move violently in both directions and is built for short holding periods, not buy-and-hold. Confirm every level on a closing basis, size for the stop rather than the target, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
$SPY Vulnerable to a short-term pullback; bullish long-termTraders should be cautious for the following reasons:
1. The recent selloff in semiconductors caused a sharp decline in technology stocks, which heavily influence AMEX:SPY
2. The market is showing signs of being overbought after a strong rally. Several analysts note elevated RSI readings and stretched valuations.
3. The Federal Reserve has signaled that another rate hike remains possible this year, which could pressure equities.
4. Lastly, Geopolitical risks and inflation remain potential headwinds.
Bearish Outlook on $SLVSilver is showing bearish momentum right now. Silver has fallen sharply from its 2026 highs, declining more than 20% over the past month as a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have pressured precious metals.
Why is Silver bearish near term:
1. Rising interest rate expectations make non-yielding assets like silver less attractive.
2. A stronger US dollar typically weighs on silver prices
3. Silver recently experienced a significant correction from its January highs.
SOXL: Pullback Within a Strong UptrendSOXL has entered a correction phase after a powerful rally and is currently testing the 225.50–226.74 support zone. Despite short-term selling pressure, the overall market structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 178.38. The current pullback may serve as a setup for the next upward leg. If support holds and buyers regain control, the main upside targets are 282.92, 343.93, and 412.76. A breakdown below 225.50 would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward 178.38. For now, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Tech at resistanceTech had a false breakout above balance yesterday. According to Jim Dalton, it likely drops to it's lower balance area.
If they get QQQ over 726, the correction is likely over, but right here and now it is at strong resistance. I expect more selling as of now.
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