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Episode 12 — The Complete Market Cycle# 🎬 The Chronicles of Mr. Nobody ## Season I — The History of the Elliott Wave Principle ### Episode 12 — The Complete Market Cycle ⏱️ **Reading Time: 3 minutes** In the previous episode, we explored how a motive wave can appear more complex than a simple five-wave pattern. We learned that understanding the market requires more than counting waves. We must also recognize where each wave fits within the larger structure. But now, another question arises: **If the market moves in five waves
LSE:BRNLEducation
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
SLV — when in doubt, zoom out...Macro Perspective Reset: My bullish bias on AMEX:SLV was clouding my objective analysis and causing confusion with the setup. Zooming out to the Monthly timeframe to look left brings immediate clarity. Primary Support: (2011 S/R Flip Zone) The $45.00 – $48.00 historical resistance shelf serves as the first line of defense for bulls to defend and absorb selling liquidity. Secondary Support: A failure to hold the (2011 S/R Flip Zone) opens the door to a deeper sweep toward the 52-week low, whe
AMEX:SLV
by RayGunaraj
QQQ is down 6.6% from its top: is the trend still on?Short answer: not right now. QQQ closed at 709.80 on Friday. That's 6.6% below the Oct 6 closing top (759.66). What my free Trend Safety Switch says today: - Trend flipped DOWN on Oct 14 (close 728.95). - It sold 70% and kept 30%. - Invested now: 30%. Why keep 30% and not sell all? The risk regime is still OK. It goes to 0% only when 2 of 3 warnings are on: 1. VIX ranks in its top 20% of the past year: ON (81st percentile). 2. QQQ closes below its 200-day average (about 675): off. 3. QQQ is m
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TheSimplePortfolio
QQQ Is Still Positioned In Ascending ChannelThe Invesco QQQ Trust is experiencing a sell off driven by U.S. inflation data (CPI report), rising Treasury yields, and broad weakness across tech and semiconductor stocks. The ETF experienced a heavy net outflow of $4.18 billion mid-week. Technical outlook: QQQ is on a short term bearish motion. The ETF has been trading downward for a couple of days now, in concern to the framework. Price is approaching a significant trend support level, as there is plain possibility of long retracement. Key
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Blaisefxacademy
SPY October 19–23, 2026 — Weekly AI Forecast OutlookSPY enters the new week with the model equilibrium positioned between 771.5 and 775.6. The first important forecast boundaries are concentrated around 778.2 on the upside and 770.0 on the downside, creating a relatively narrow central structure around equilibrium. The key areas are 778.2–789.1 above and 759.1–770.0 below. These zones contain the model's predictive rails and outer boundaries and will help determine whether SPY remains within its central weekly structure or begins a broader expans
AMEX:SPY
by NeuralMarkets
2
QQQ hit extreme fear: what fear spikes did next (backtest 1999+)QQQ dropped 2.5% on Oct 16 and Market Fear Meter reads 9/100, extreme fear versus the last year. What it measures: - Fear side: Williams VIX Fix, ranked against the last 252 bars. - Greed side: how stretched price is above its 50-bar average. - FEAR SPIKE = panic starting. FEAR FADING = panic cooling while the trend filter is OK. After past FEAR FADING signals on QQQ (1999-2026, backtest, close to close, no costs): - 60 bars later: average +3.6%, up 70% of the time (314 signals). - Any random
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TheSimplePortfolio
SPY Oct 16: The trend-down day that punishes dip buyersFriday was a textbook trend-down day on SPY, the kind that does the most damage to retail traders. It wasn’t a crash. It was a steady grind lower, with every bounce failing. What the chart showed in real time (15m): Price, the 9 EMA, and the 21 EMA all stayed below VWAP from late morning on. When all three are on the same side of VWAP, that’s the only side I want to trade. The VIX was up roughly 25% from its open. A fast intraday spike like that is a warning to size down or sit out, even when
AMEX:SPY
by KaneD_Discipline_Trades
How to Hedge Bear Markets Using Beta (Real case October 2026)Description: When market volatility spikes (VIX > 20) and benchmark yields remain elevated (US10Y > 5.0%), most retail traders make the mistake of either freezing or recklessly buying high-beta growth dips. Institutional capital handles bear markets and sharp pullbacks using two core principles: Beta Allocation and Multi-Asset Performance Tracking. 🛡️ 1. What is Beta and How Does It Protect Your Portfolio?: Beta measures an asset’s historical sensitivity relative to the broad market (S&P
AMEX:XLP
by SadashiTrading
$EWJ — Rising Wedge Breakdown Threatens Japan's RallyJapan's equity rally may be running out of steam. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF ( AMEX:EWJ ) has been climbing inside a rising wedge, a typically bearish formation characterized by higher highs and higher lows within converging trendlines. Now, price is threatening a breakdown, while momentum has been deteriorating across multiple timeframes. The 4-Hour Rising Wedge The 4-hour chart shows a rising wedge that has developed throughout 2026. Price has been making higher highs against a grad
AMEX:EWJShort
by quickshiftinn
CIBR - Cybersecurity Stock Hit New Highs!Cybersecurity stocks surged to fresh records on Monday, with the First Trust Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) reaching an all-time high as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notched a new record of its own. The simultaneous milestones suggest that investors are increasingly treating cybersecurity as a core holding rather than a niche sector bet, and that the broader market's appetite for technology exposure remains strong despite persistent questions about valuation and macroeconomic conditions. T
NASDAQ:CIBRLong
by KalaGhazi
SPY 1h: a close below the rising channel, and its levelsSPY 1-hour, with our Pattern Breakout Signals study at default settings. What broke The 1-hour candle that closed at 13:30 New York closed at 764.11, below the lower line of a rising channel the study found on its own. At that candle the channel ran from about 765.53 (lower line) to 785.34 (upper line). Red down triangle: side Short, grade B. The levels, drawn from that close Entry 764.11 Stop 767.76, 1.5 times the prior bar's ATR above the close T1 760.46, T2 756.81, T3 753.16: one, two and t
AMEX:SPY
by AuctionFoundry
1
SPY at the Crossroads | Breakout, Breakdown Or Trap?Current Price: $771.70 Timeframe: 15-minute SPY is trading just below the Point of Control (POC) at $772.31, with recent candles showing selling pressure near this key level. The next move depends on whether buyers reclaim the POC or sellers maintain control. 🟢 Bullish Scenario Entry trigger: A 15-minute candle closes above $772.31 and holds on a retest. Upside targets: $775.65 → $777.76 → $780.47 Confirmation: Strong volume and sustained buying above the POC. 🔴 Bearish Scenario Entry tri
AMEX:SPY
by globuscapitas
SPY: Weekly Double Top at 780, Watching 750 for ConfirmationSPY has tested the 780 area twice, in August and again this month, and both times sellers stepped in. That's a potential double top on the weekly. The latest push into 780 came with bearish RSI divergence, so momentum is fading even as price retests the high. The bigger uptrend is still intact: price is above the rising moving averages and the long-term trendline. That makes this a watch for confirmation, not a call that the top is in yet. 📉 Confirmation: a weekly close below 750, the September
AMEX:SPYShort
by Gutta_CEO_
SMH: trend goes neutral after breaking its monthly target downSMH closed Thursday at 558.84. It lost its October and Q4 pivot at 610.68 last week, then went through the monthly target down at 572.91 on Wednesday without stopping. On my side the trend reading turned neutral after Thursday’s close, from bullish a week ago. So the buy-low-in-an-uptrend setup I was watching is off for now. I’d rather wait for the trend to pick a side again, or for a daily close back above 572.91 that shows the selling is done. Over the last 20 sessions semis went from the best
NASDAQ:SMH
by vola2vola
TLT closes above its range top while the trend is still downTLT closed Tuesday at 78.34, above its 2026 yearly target at 77.89 and well above its October and Q4 pivot at 76.94, so the monthly and quarterly bias point up while the yearly bias stays down. It also closed above the top of its short-term range, which usually means the move is stretched for now. On my side the trend is still bearish, so for me this is a strong bounce inside a downtrend until the trend turns. The next level above is the monthly target at 79.41, where I’d take some profit if lon
NASDAQ:TLT
by myfractalrange