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Is SPY Turning Bearish?Sure it is ladies and gentlemen. We have the 4hrs TF turning bearish and the Daily will also be bearish next week, it will be nice to see a bounce on the 4hrs TF to test recent highs and fail that will confirm the Daily change in trend direction with targets below $745.00, We'll see how it plays out next week. Buckle up ladies and gentlemen wild rides are coming next week. Play it right..................Play it safe...............Play it The Numberfive Way. Boost................Follow..................Share..................Comment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Numberfive
Semiconductors Setting Up Base As Macro Fears CoolTaking a close look at the RIGHT chart, we can see a classic inverse head and shoulders base forming. What makes this structure especially interesting is the nesting. Inside the broader right shoulder of the main pattern, price action has carved out a smaller secondary inverse head and shoulders. This type of pattern within a pattern often signals that buyers are stepping in early and absorbing selling pressure before the larger breakout unfolds. When the smaller structure resolves upward, it can provide the momentum needed to confirm the larger bottoming process. The Macro Picture: Why Are Markets Not Spooked?!?!?! On paper, the broader macro backdrop looks intimidating: 10 Yr Yield: TVC:TNX is sitting at levels much higher than during the regional banking stress of 2023. However, instead of panicking, equities are absorbing this move. The market views current yield strength as a reflection of solid economic momentum rather than a sudden systemic crunch. Japanese Yen: The Yen has handed back about half of its massive run. While the initial spike caused widespread turbulence, the current retracement shows that global currency repositioning is unfolding in an orderly way without forced liquidation cascades. Volatility Suppression: Despite elevated bond yields and currency swings, fear gauges are not ripping higher. Heavy option premium selling and persistent dip buying continue to place a floor under pullbacks, keeping markets remarkably stable. Key Takeaway While macro headlines seem heavy, the underlying price action tells a calmer story. The nested inverse head and shoulders pattern highlights steady accumulation in semiconductors, while the market reaction to high yields and currency moves points to strong resilience. Watch for the pattern neckline to clear to CONFIRM that the next upward leg is underway. What is your take on this semiconductor setup? Are we set for a breakout, or will macro pressure eventually weigh on equities? TGtg!
NASDAQ:SOXX
by ROW_Partners
USO - Oil Fund Breakout Following in line with the breakout on USOIL, the United States Oil Fund is breaking out as well. This one is particularly interesting. Ever since the breakout in March during the US-Iran war, USO broke above its multi year resistance between $85 and $90, which is a level that had held as significant selling pressure since 2022. During that same period, USOIL broke out above its own multi year resistance, which I posted about here: This is important because once oil reached its recent high, the subsequent pullback brought the USOIL price exactly back to retest its breakout trendline. I made a post when that was occurring here: However, what occurred for USO was different. Instead of retesting its old resistance as new support around the $85 to $90 range, it found a low at $102 instead. This is a meaningful sign of relative strength. USO never even needed to come close to retesting its original breakout zone before finding buyers, holding well above the exact level that would have confirmed a standard support retest. Price finding demand at a significantly higher level than its own breakout structure would suggest is often an early indication that buyers are more confident and eager to accumulate than the price action alone might otherwise imply, since they were unwilling to wait for the full, textbook retest before stepping back in. This distinction becomes even more meaningful when you consider who actually trades each instrument. USOIL is typically used by short term, often leveraged traders reacting quickly to price action and mechanically chasing textbook retests. USO, on the other hand, is an ETF which makes it the preferred vehicle for longer term allocators and institutions building broader commodity exposure. When USO skips the full retest that USOIL still respected, it suggests this more patient class of capital is accumulating for the longer-term, rather than waiting around for the textbook setup. Now that USO has broken out above the trendline, it can make a move back toward $150 as USOIL itself begins rallying toward $100. However, once USO breaks above its last high of $154, it is likely to start rallying toward the 1.618 extension around $186. This aligns with the red box range I have drawn between $160 and $190. This zone is derived from the monthly levels. Back in 2009, $180 to $190 was a major pivot of support. Then in 2015, the bottom of this zone ($160 to $170) marked a major pivot of resistance. Because of this, if/when price breaks above the $150 level, somewhere within this red box is where sellers are likely to begin stepping in heavily.
AMEX:USO
by VIAQUANT
Why you trade the RSI wrong - SPY as an exampleSo... why do you (general you) lose money trading? Most of the individuals whom I've taught have only a superficial understanding of what they are actually doing. It's like watching an university student tell me they can operate on a person because they saw on tiktok and uses a knife all the time. J. Welles Wilder Jr. If you don't know that name and have traded the RSI - you are the exact person I am describing. Okay - for those of you know - What are the five principles that he talked about regarding using the RSI? Are they still in applicable today? Or are you still stuck in "Over-bought/Over-sold". Do yourself a favor - if you are using the RSI to trade but don't know who or what I am talking about - go read pages 63-70 of New Concepts of Technical Trading Systems and my notes below will make sense. My notes. Wilder Jr. noted that reversals are more likely to happen when there is divergence between the underlying price and the RSI. I marked out 2 areas of Support (S1, S2) where the price and RSI diverge, in a bullish fashion. Soon after, the RSI demonstrates following a bullish support trend line (S3). You can also recognize the failed swing on the higher time-frame (daily). Conditions seem favorable from a fundamental, technical, volume, and price action perspective that I believe that there is more reward potential than risk potential. Take what resonates, leave what doesn't. Not financial advice - this is for educational purposes only. I will be doing a lecture on RSI trading if you can find it lol
AMEX:SPYLong
by TheTradingDoct0r
QQQ: world-class basket, ordinary entry - HOLD 54/100HOLD / WAIT - 54/100. Great asset, ordinary entry. QQQ closed 31 Aug at $716.76 (+0.05%). The basket is world-class; today's entry is not. WHY NOT A BUY TODAY - The Fed is discussing a HIKE, not a cut. After Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on 28 Aug, September hike odds jumped from 35% to 59.7%. The 30Y Treasury sits at 5.32% (a 19-year high) and the 10Y at 4.74%. QQQ sells long-duration cash flows; multiples do not expand while the discount rate climbs. - No trend at all. ADX(14) = 11.94, the lowest reading in a year, with +DI 25.27 against -DI 25.31 - buyers and sellers in dead balance. MACD 1.82 has sat below its 2.22 signal for four sessions. Price has been boxed between 702.70 and 734.58 for three weeks. - Valuation is rich. P/E 32.90 versus SPY around 26.4, and versus the NDX's own 30.95 reading on 13 Aug - the multiple widened 6.3% in two weeks. - NDX is the laggard. The S&P 500 is printing records while the Nasdaq-100 is still 4% below its June peak - the only major US index that has not recovered. The S&P Momentum Index is down more than 9% since July, its worst quarterly relative showing in 25 years, and speculators have started shorting NDX futures. WHY NOT A SELL EITHER - NVIDIA crushed it on 26 Aug: revenue $96.2B vs $91.9B expected, EPS $2.22 vs $2.09, Neocloud capacity guided from ~3GW to 8GW this year. - Q2 US business investment +8.5%, consumption +3.4%. The AI capex cycle is real, not a story. - Price is 9.3% above a rising 200-day MA (655.65). Zacks rates the fund ETF Rank 2 (Buy); TipRanks consensus is Strong Buy with a $902 weighted target. - Sentiment is washed out, not euphoric: AAII bearish six weeks running, Stocktwits 53/100 neutral, and QQQ just closed below its open eight sessions in a row - historically a setup with 100% positive 1M/6M/1Y forward returns. LEVELS (drawn on the chart) BUY ZONE 694-707 - Bollinger lower 705.13 + 24 Aug low 702.70 + 50% retrace 697.50. Set an ALERT, not a limit order: when price arrives, re-verify thesis (is AI capex intact?), trend (did the box break down?) and risk (is the FOMC behind us?). Ladder 707-702 = 40%, 702-694 = 35%, 694-676 = 25%. All rungs finish above the stop. SHORT-TERM SELL 734-749 - 21 Aug high 734.58 + 52-week high 748.65. Trim 30%. Expected window: 3-6 months. LONG-TERM SELL 780-815 - bull case, 30% odds. Trim another 25%, keep a 45% core. Expected window: 9-18 months. STOP: daily CLOSE below 654 - that is the 200-day MA (655.65), where the long-term structure breaks. Not an arbitrary percentage. 12-MONTH SCENARIOS Bull $858 (+19.7%) at 30% - no hike, oil retreats, AI capex accelerates. Base $779 (+8.7%) at 45% - one hike then pause, earnings +12%, multiple 32.9x compressing to 31x. Bear $586 (-18.2%) at 25% - two hikes, Brent above $100, memory cycle rolls over. Probability-weighted: +5.3% on price, +5.7% including the 0.42% dividend. Note the asymmetry - the bear loss is roughly twice the base gain. WHAT I AM WATCHING The 4 Sep payrolls report and the 16-17 Sep FOMC decide which way the box breaks. Concentration is the structural risk: semiconductors and equipment are 34.2% of the fund and the top 10 holdings are 46%. Last year's return came from the memory cycle (MU +684%, SNDK +2730%, INTC +267%), not from mega-cap software - MSFT carries 5.77% weight and returned just +1.35%. Not financial advice. Boxes on the chart are positioned at the date each zone is expected, not all at today's bar.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Nasdaq-Bist100
SPY — Sept. 1 Market PrepYesterday’s late recovery has now been decisively rejected. SPY is around 763 premarket, which means we’re not merely testing yesterday’s lower structure anymore — we’re trading beneath it. That changes the battlefield. The first thing I notice on your chart is the amount of resistance now stacked above price: ~764–765 → first repair zone ~766 → next structural recovery ~767 → current major pivot / projected area ~768–769 → stronger repair ~771 → significant upside hurdle So Blue isn’t impossible, but look at what buyers would have to accomplish to get there. They basically have to repair multiple broken levels plus a hostile macro tape. Orange requires the opposite: sellers simply need to maintain acceptance below the current structure and continue through the lower decision areas. That asymmetry matters. My five scenarios 🔵 BLUE — Violent recovery / squeeze Premarket weakness fails almost immediately. SPY reclaims 765 → 766 → 767, holds those repairs and begins squeezing through 768–769. Once 769 is accepted, 771 becomes the real test. Above there, a larger recovery toward the mid/high 770s becomes possible. I keep Blue because geopolitical markets can reverse violently on one headline. But this is my lowest-weight scenario right now. 🟢 GREEN — Controlled repair SPY finds buyers below 764, stops making lows and gradually rebuilds. Reclaim 764–765, then 766–768. Unlike Blue, Green doesn't require a runaway squeeze. It could simply be a methodical recovery after an oversold/opening flush. For Green, I want to see actual acceptance above repaired levels — not one candle poking through them. 🟡 YELLOW — Range / digestion Very believable. SPY stabilizes around roughly 762–764, perhaps repeatedly probing both sides while the market waits for economic data and assesses oil/yields. This could become nasty 0DTE chop because we have: 9:05 — Barr 9:45 — Manufacturing PMI 10:00 — JOLTS + ISM Manufacturing + Construction Spending If we're sitting in the middle of Yellow before 10:00, I would be particularly careful about manufacturing a trade. 🔴 RED — Bearish continuation SPY cannot reclaim 764–765, sellers maintain control, and price works through the lower structure. The first important downside decision area is around 762. Lose that with acceptance and 760 → 758 becomes very realistic. This is probably my highest-weight scenario going into the morning. 🟠 ORANGE — Capitulation / geopolitical expansion This is the tail-risk bearish path. A real failure below ~762, combined with accelerating oil/yields or another geopolitical headline, could produce an expansion move through 760/758 and eventually into the mid/low 750s. I absolutely keep it. And yes: Orange > Blue in probability for me right now. Not because I'm predicting a crash. Because Orange requires continuation of conditions that already exist, while Blue requires a substantial reversal of both market structure and the current macro pressure. My rough weighting: Red > Yellow ≈ Orange > Green > Blue But none are zero. What would change the weighting quickly? Reclaim 765: Red loses some control. Reclaim + hold 767: Green becomes considerably stronger. Acceptance above 769: Blue stops being a tail scenario. Conversely: Acceptance below 762: Orange probability rises materially. Lose 758 with expanding momentum: now the deep bearish path deserves serious respect. And I would keep one personal rule front and center after yesterday: Do not take the first move simply because one scenario appears to be playing out. We need the market to show acceptance/rejection at these areas, especially with major data at 10:00.
AMEX:SPY
by heavydiligence
SPY - Back At The Floor With A Data Print On The ClockSPY - Back At The Floor With A Data Print On The Clock The S&P 500 ETF is opening soft near the low end of the two-week range that has held between roughly 765.71 and 771.58. This morning's dip under that floor is a pre-market print, not a settled read, so it does not count as a break yet. The daily picture still leans constructive, and the level that would actually change the posture is a confirmed close that holds, in either direction. There is also a scheduled risk on the clock: the ISM manufacturing report lands at 10:00 Eastern, which is a timing event to respect, not a direction to trade ahead of. Resistance: 771.58 (range top and trigger) Key resistance: 775.30, then 779.37 Current price: 763.23 Support: 765.52, then 762.57 Key support: 759.13 Structural: 753.22 Two paths from here: Reclaim and hold above 765.71 during the regular session and the range stays intact, with 771.58 back in view as the level that has rejected four times. Close the regular session below 765.71 and hold it, and the two-week range breaks down, opening 759.13 and then 753.22. The range has been the whole story for two weeks, and it takes a held close, not a morning wick, to end it. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
The strongest six-month trend has no momentum leftMost screens measure one thing and call it a signal. Run two and the interesting answers are where they disagree. Take a six-month trend reading and a one-month momentum reading across the US sectors this morning. Semiconductors are up 40.5% over six months. Strongest structure of any sector, by a distance. Over the last month they've done −0.2%. Nothing. So the best-looking trend on the board belongs to the thing that has stopped moving. Trend alone says buy it. Momentum alone says nothing is happening here. Together they say the move already went, and you're looking at it after the fact. Now the same thing upside down. Communication Services is up 4.3% on the month, better momentum than eight of the twelve sectors. And down 5.4% over six months. Momentum with a broken structure underneath it. Both fail. Both fail for opposite reasons. A screen measuring only one of the two would have told you to buy one of them. Three sectors cleared both readings this morning: technology, energy and healthcare. Three out of twelve. If ten cleared every week the readings wouldn't be doing anything. The thresholds on the chart are the ones I use. Six-month move above +5% counts as an intact trend, one-month above +2% counts as live momentum. Argue with the numbers if you like, they're on the chart so you can. Which of the two do you weight more heavily, and has that changed in the last year? Educational content. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:SMHEducation
by RB_T
2
JUNIORBEESBased on the daily chart for Nippon India ETF Nifty Next 50 Junior BeES (JUNIORBEES), here is the technical breakdown and short-term levels: Trend & Structure Lower Boundary Test: The price is currently resting right on the lower boundary line of the ascending channel around 789.97 – 790.81. Pullback from Highs: Following a swing high near 823.97 (High label), the ETF has pulled back over recent daily sessions to retest the trendline support. Volume Profile: Volume levels remain moderate to low on this pullback, indicating a orderly correction rather than aggressive institutional selling. Key Technical Levels Immediate Resistance (Upside Target 1): 823.97 – 827.80 (Recent swing high resistance area, ~4.74% potential upside from channel support) Upper Channel Target (Upside Target 2): 845.00 – 855.00 (Upper yellow trendline projection) Immediate Support: 789.97 (Current lower channel trendline support level) Major Support (Downside Target): 762.00 (Prior horizontal base consolidation low from July; target if trendline breaks) Short-Term Scenarios Bullish Rebound (Primary Setup): Holding above 789.97 supports a bounce back toward 823.97 (+4.7%), with extended momentum targeting the upper channel boundary (~850.00). Bearish Breakdown (Risk Management): A daily close below 789.00 invalidates the current ascending channel, opening up downside risk toward the horizontal demand zone at 762.00 (~8.5% drop from the high). Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:JUNIORBEES
by KP_77
SPY Chart In No-Mans LandAMEX:SPY I am optimistically bearish on the overall currently with everything coming through the tape/news. There really seems to be a qualm over hike/keep put/cut - even though no one is expecting a cut in interest rates. GDP increased by 1.5% but that is a lower number than the previous quarter print. We also saw PCE come in at a number that might raise some eyebrows in the Federal Reserve. All to say, it seems that the market is trying ton decide it's next move and I am genuinely leaning on the side of a breakdown below 762 quite frankly. it feels heavy, treasury yields are pushing higher, earnings season is over - now we just get lulled into a sense of contempt while the Fed deliberates for September. if we can get some momentum and break this range to the upside - great - but what is out there right now for me to even think that's a possibility other than markets can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent... or something like that.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ItsJust_Kess
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Tuesday, September 1, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Tuesday, September 1, 2026 📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Forecast: 55.2 | Previous: 55.6 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing Prices | Forecast: 70.5 | Previous: 71.1 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings | Forecast: 7.33M | Previous: 7.36M ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #ISMManufacturing #ManufacturingPMI #ISMPrices #JOLTS #JobOpenings
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Sept. 1: Negative GEX Below $770 SPY finished Monday at $766.77 and traded around $766.93 after hours. The session moved from $769.77 down to $764.72 before buyers recovered part of the decline. The larger trend is still bullish, but short-term momentum has weakened. Tuesday’s direction will depend on whether SPY can reclaim $770 or loses Monday’s low. Daily Timeframe SPY reached a recent high of $779.37 before pulling back into the mid-$760s. The current decline has not broken the larger uptrend, but buyers have not yet produced another daily breakout. Daily RSI is around 54.2 and below its signal line near 60. Momentum has cooled and is no longer supporting an aggressive bullish entry. The first daily resistance is around $770, followed by $775.93 and $779.37. A daily close above $780 would restart the larger breakout and open the path toward $790 and $800. The first important daily support is around $755. Below that, the next major support is near $729, followed by $717. 15-Minute Timeframe SPY began the session near $769.50 and remained under pressure throughout the morning. The decline reached $764.72 before buyers stepped in during the afternoon. Price recovered toward $768 and broke above the intraday falling channel, but the breakout did not continue. SPY finished near $767.50 and is now retesting the broken trendline. The 15-minute indicator also shows support breaking down. That makes the current bounce less convincing until $768 and $770 are reclaimed. The immediate intraday range is $764.72 to $770. GEX Map Monday’s 0DTE GEX map showed negative gamma with puts representing 69.4% of the positioning. Important upside levels: $768 first resistance $769 call level $770 high-volatility level $772 major call level $774 secondary call level $775 upper put level Important downside levels: $766 first put level $765 stronger put level $760 largest downside put wall The negative gamma environment matters. When dealers are positioned in negative gamma, they may hedge in the same direction as the market move. That can make breakouts and breakdowns travel faster. Below $768, SPY was trading inside the negative gamma area. A break below $765 could therefore accelerate toward $760. This map was based on the August 31 0DTE expiration. Those contracts have expired, so Tuesday’s live GEX map must be checked before treating these levels as current dealer positioning. Call Setup For calls, I first want SPY to break $768 and hold it on a retest. Initial upside targets: $769 $770 $772 The stronger call setup begins above $770. If SPY breaks $770 and successfully retests it, the next targets are: $772 $774 $775.30 $775.93 $779.37 I would not chase calls directly into $770. That is the high-volatility level and could reject price without confirmation. Put Setup Puts become interesting if SPY rejects $768 to $770 and then loses $766. Downside targets: $765 $764.72 $763.25 $760 The cleaner breakdown comes below $764.72. I would wait for that level to break and fail on the retest before expecting a larger move toward $760. If $760 breaks, the daily chart opens toward approximately $755. Economic Data Risk Tuesday includes manufacturing and labor-market data. A strong reaction around the morning releases could override the early technical setup. I would avoid entering immediately before the data and wait for SPY to establish direction afterward. My Plan Above $770 with a successful retest, I am looking for calls toward $772 and $775. Below $766 with a failed reclaim, I am looking for puts toward $764.72 and $760. Between $766 and $770, I will wait. That area contains several nearby GEX levels and can produce false breakouts. The larger trend remains bullish, but the short-term setup favors caution. SPY needs to reclaim $770 before buyers take back control. Below $765, negative gamma could turn an ordinary pullback into a faster move toward $760.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Opening: GLD Sept 18th 2 x 363/368-425/435 Iron Condor... for a 2.63 credit. Comments: Non-closely correlated asset to the broad market. With only 39 DTE left in the Sept monthly, probably my last trade in that expiry before I start looking at October when its DTE dwindles down to <56 DTE. Unlike SPY, GLD's skew is to the call side, with similarly delta'd puts being closer to at-the-money than calls, so I'm going double the contracts on the put side at half the delta of the calls and half the width of the call side wing. This makes for a more symmetrical setup relative to current price than were I to just sell equally delta'd short option strikes on both sides. Metrics: Max Profit: 2.63 ($263) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 7.37 ($737) ROC at Max: 35.7% ROC at 50% Max: 17.8% Will generally look at taking profit at 50% max.
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
SPY Weekly Bearish Divergence at Highs — Protect CapitalAMEX:SPY weekly is printing bearish divergence into all-time-high territory. Price keeps making higher highs while RSI is making lower highs. Momentum is not confirming the last push. Volume on the latest weekly legs is also lighter than the prior advance. This is not a “short the open” signal. Divergence on the weekly is a risk-off warning. The uptrend is intact until structure breaks. Key levels: Near-term watch: failure to hold the rising trend / latest weekly lows - Support 1: 689.93 (prior breakout / previous highs zone) - Support 2: 606.58 - Support 3: 565.16 - Deeper: 490.64 Bias: cautious / defensive until weekly RSI reclaims strength or price loses the rising structure on volume. Protect the capital! Let the tape confirm!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Gutta_CEO_
SPY: The After-Window Opened on an Oil Shock...On 21 August I published the CME September curve at 34.6% hike against 65.4% hold and flagged Warsh Friday as the reaction function reveal. He gave it. About twenty points of hike moved in the hour he spoke, and the curve kept going. Monday's pull reads September 66.1% hike against 33.9% hold, October 74.4% hike, December 89.0% hike, and ease 0.0% at all three. September was 57.0% on Friday and 41.4% a week ago, though it also read 67.0% on 31 July, so the front end has round-tripped a month rather than set a new extreme. The August employment situation lands Friday 4 September at 08:30 ET against a +58K consensus after July's −23K, on the last session Fed voters can speak before FOMC blackout starts at midnight. Watch payrolls and participation separately: the July print held the unemployment rate at 4.1% by falling participation, and a Temporary Protected Status revocation for about 350,000 people in late July can hold the rate down for the wrong reason again. Warsh named the gauge, the share of 199 disaggregated PCE components rising more than 3% over twelve months, currently at 54%. That is what any print from here reads against. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie