SPY: Weekly Outlook Hey everyone,
Here are my thoughts on SPY for the weekly, plus as an added bonus I will give you my LLM's thoughts on SPY for this week haha. More insightful than I have time for xD.
For SPY, looking for Bearish Monday. SPCX is being added to the the NAS which I left out of my QQQ idea because I thought it to be irrelevant with Monday already projected to be bearish, but because someone in my group is so obsessed with it and feels I need talk about it (said with love and respect xD), here it is. Its being added to the NAS and historically additions to indicies are bearish events for both the ticker and the index. So it explains some of the bearish sentiment being forecasted for Monday for sure. Though not directly impacting S&P since its not being added to the S&P, S&P is not immune to what tech does / QQQ does.
The SPCX addition is likely to be weighed under 1% of the NAS but it still requires displacement of other tickers. The outcome is actually paradoxical, despite indicies having to buy the level of shares to match the weight, the index and the ticker affected tend to sell. I am not 100% clear on this as the explanation is quite complex. But essentially, the index managers buy pre event on the close price of the day (so after hours orders) and because arbitrage players know its coming, they accumulate before the event and release on the event, which ends up being a profit taking event on the actual release. This is massively simplified but is the gist of the idea.
Back to SPY, overall outlook on the week is bullish. The high probabiity target on the month actually corresponds to PH2 on the week, so that is quite interesting (yellow target). We have a very bullish quarterly high probability (pink line), worth paying attention to but not worth expecting to hit right away. As I indicated in my QQQ idea which is equally true for SPY, currently the regime is mean reverting and not really dip buying / rip shorting. Its mostly mean reverting, aggressive up moves followed by aggressive down moves.
Strategies for this type of regime are simply BB, Z-Score, even a lower timeframe EMA can work. Easy to trade if you like to scalp and be in and out fairly quickly.
The targets are posted on the chart, but before I conclude the idea, I will share my LLm's weekly analysis, which goes into much more depth that I really can on my own without a lot of overhead haha, so here you go:
Overview
Current Price: $744.78
Time Horizon: 5 days
Velocity: The current Z-score is -1.02, indicating an EXTREME CLIMAX state.
Key Indicators
Regression Analysis:
Bullish Box: $757.97
Bearish Box: $731.21
EMA Analysis: 20% consensus is bullish.
XGBoost Analysis: 73.3% consensus is bullish.
Analogues: 10/10 Bullish | Drivers: vol_v, entropy, rsi, hurst.
Celestial Bias: BULLISH (color commentary only, no impact on confidence level)
Fibonacci Structural Analysis
Daily Timeframe:
Resistance: $746.68 (141.4%)
Distance: 0.26% above current price
Historical Rejection Rate: 75%
Support: $738.2 (127.2%)
Distance: 0.88% below current price
Historical Hold Rate: 25%
Weekly Timeframe:
Resistance: $760.4 (161.8%)
Distance: 2.1% above current price
Historical Rejection Rate: 100%
Support: $727.1 (141.4%)
Distance: 2.37% below current price
Historical Hold Rate: 100%
Monthly Timeframe:
Resistance: $760.4 (161.8%)
Distance: 2.1% above current price
Historical Rejection Rate: 0%
Support: $663.1 (141.4%)
Distance: 10.97% below current price
Historical Hold Rate: 100%
Confidence Level
Confidence Level: 70%
Swing Target
Primary Swing Target: Given the regression analysis and Fibonacci levels, the primary swing target is $757.97 (Bullish Box) as it aligns with the 141.4% Fibonacci level.
Secondary Swing Target: If the price fails to hold above the 127.2% support level ($738.2), it could retest the 141.4% support level ($727.1).
Day-by-Day Trajectories
Day 1: Price is likely to consolidate within the current range, possibly testing the 141.4% resistance level ($746.68).
Day 2-3: If the price breaks above the 141.4% resistance level ($746.68), it could push towards the 161.8% resistance level ($760.4).
Day 4-5: If the price continues to rise, it could reach the Bullish Box target ($757.97). However, if it fails to break above the 141.4% resistance, it could retest the 127.2% support level ($738.2).
Final Verdict
Final Verdict: BULLISH
Given the high consensus from XGBoost and the strong Fibonacci support, the primary trajectory is bullish. However, the market is currently in an EXTREME CLIMAX state, which increases the risk of a short-term pullback. Therefore, while the overall trend is expected to be bullish, traders should be cautious and manage risk appropriately.
In my opinion, 757 is on the high end of things since it involves pushing towards the third high target and implies somewhat of a breakout, but the fib levels provide a great guide as potential areas to watch for support/rejection. Also note the overly bearish EMA metrics. Though the majority of metrics are bullish which is why the LLM is pushing a bullish narrative, something to watch out for.
Overall those are my thoughts, not advice of course.
Take care everyone and as always, safe trades!
QQQ/NQ1! Month and Week Here are my thoughts on QQQ/NQ1! for next week and the current month.
The chart has Monthly levels for QQQ. With the most pressing being the yellow line represent the monthly high probability target of 742.61.
QQQ came just shy of snagging the second low range 702 on the month, which remains a possibility into next week, depending on how much Asia and London want to pump it Sunday night.
For QQQ on the month the targets to watch are:
High targets:
TP1: 768 (27.3% probaiblity)
TP2: 774 (9% probability)
With the high prob target being at 743 which serves as the current immediate upside target.
Low targets:
721 (98% probability); already hit
710 (68% probability); already hit
The Week Ahead
For the week ahead, going into Monday, expect some selling pressure. Looking at NQ1!:
With expectations on the day between Sunday into Monday close to retrace down to 29183.64 (96.6% probability).
However, the week for both NQ1! and QQQ are generally optimistic.
For NQ1!:
Projections for NQ1! (Weekly)
High targets:
TP1: 30098.97 (84.6% prob)
TP2: 31001.91 (89,6% prob (higher probability here because they are separate models)).
On the low side:
28427 (3.7% prob)
27409 (2.8% prob)
For the week on QQQ:
730 is what we should be watching.
In the longer range, the market has some pretty bullish high probs on the quarter but a quarter is a long time and just started some days ago. The reality is the market can crash and recover in much less time than it takes for a quarter to elapse. So its important to stay vigilant.
As of now, the market is in a mean reversion regime, you would do well to continue using strategies such as BB or z-score until a breakout comes either way.
I'll leave the analysis at that, overall for the short term outlook is bullish save for Monday. Unsure of the gap likelihood, but if I had to guess, gap up probably. We could even see NQ1! take out its weekly high at 30098.97 before we even open on Monday, which is typical for this market lol.
Good luck! Safe trades and take care everyone!
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SPY Candles Direction Market!STRENGTH, Control SHIFT, INDECISION Candles!!!
STRENGTH
A "strength candlestick" (or strong candle) in trading refers to a price movement with a large body and very short (or no) wicks. It indicates decisive dominance by either buyers or sellers. A strong bullish (green) candle means aggressive buying, while a strong bearish (red) candle means aggressive selling with little to no resistance.
Why Candlestick Strength Matters
Understanding candlestick strength is essential for price action analysis because it reveals the momentum behind a price move, rather than just the pattern itself.
The Real Body: This reflects the distance between the open and the close. A tall body shows high urgency and conviction.
The Wicks (Shadows): These indicate price rejection. Short wicks mean the winning side maintained control throughout the entire time period without pulling back.
Common Types of Strength CandlesMarubozu: A candle with a maximum-sized body and no wicks at all. A bullish Marubozu indicates buyers controlled the price from the open to the close.
Momentum Candles: A sequence of large-bodied candles that show a strong directional trend.
Reversal Momentum: Sometimes a single strength candle is so large it engulfs the previous two or three candles, signaling a powerful shift in market sentiment.
Control SHIFT
A "shift control candle" (or "control shift") refers to a specific candlestick that signals a decisive change in market momentum, showing that either buyers or sellers have taken full control of the price action.
These candles often appear near major turning points. Key characteristics include:
*Bullish Control Shift: A candle forms with a long lower wick and closes near its high. This indicates that sellers tried to push prices down, but buyers stepped in aggressively, rejecting lower prices and taking control.
*Bearish Control Shift: A candle forms with a long upper wick and closes near its bottom. This shows that buyers initially pushed the price up, but sellers overwhelmed them, forcing the price down and taking control.
*The Breakout: Traders often look for this candle to "sweep" or break above/below the high or low of the previous candle. This confirms the shift in power.
INDECISION Candle
An indecision candlestick indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are in control, resulting in a small body where the opening and closing prices are almost identical. The long wicks on both sides show the market tested higher and lower prices but couldn't commit, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
Types of Indecision Candlesticks
Doji: The most common indecision candle. The open and close are exactly (or nearly) equal, forming a plus-sign (+) shape with long wicks.
Spinning Top: Has a slightly larger body than a Doji but features upper and lower wicks of similar length. It indicates an intense battle between buyers and sellers that ended in a stalemate.
High Wave Candle: Similar to a Spinning Top but features exceptionally long wicks. It signals high volatility alongside market uncertainty.
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SPY's Bull Anchor Is Still Cracked But Still Hasn't Broken.SPY's Bull Anchor Is Still Cracked But Still Hasn't Broken.
SPY is holding just under 746 into a fourth session, still pinned below the 751 band it rejected yesterday. The months-long bullish anchor that has kept the market up finally started showing a crack yesterday, and that crack is still there this morning - but the anchor hasn't actually broken. Price tested the top of the range, got turned back, and settled right back into the middle of it. The near-term read swung short into yesterday's close and has already swung back to long overnight, which is the whole problem: nothing is committing.
Resistance: 746.91-751.24 - the band that rejected yesterday
Key resistance: 756.68 - the cycle high
Current price: 745.77
Support: 740.44 - the shelf that has to hold
Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The crack widens into a break. The 223-bar bull print is still flagging itself for a second session, the short setup holds at 3/5, and range compression sits at the 92nd percentile - coiled tight. A loss of 740.44 with the bull print finally breaking opens 736.50 then 732.45, and the three-day short setup fires at last. The anti-signal on the anchor is the closest the short has come to a trigger.
The crack heals and the band gives. The hourly flipped back to a clean long overnight and price is holding the middle of the range, so if the bull print sheds its anti-signal and buyers push through 751, the 756 cycle high opens. But this has been the losing path for four sessions - the band keeps rejecting, and volume at the 38th percentile is not the participation a breakout needs.
A bull print that has held 223 bars is now carrying an anti-signal into a second session while price coils under a band it cannot break. Compression this tight resolves soon, and the anchor showing its first sustained doubt is the tell that it resolves down. But the print has to actually break - it has been cracked before without giving.
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Study, not financial advice. SPY Interval Delta-Hedged Iron Condor (Update)This is a continuation of an iron condor post where I'm basically delta hedging at intervals additively, subtractively, or via rolling. (See Post Below).
An additive delta hedge adds a spread to reduce net delta in one direction or the other. If the net position is skewing short, a short put spread is added; long, a short call spread.
A subtractive delta hedge takes profit on a spread to reduce delta in the position. If the net position is skewing short, I look to close a short call spread (assuming it can be done for 50% max) or greater; long, I look to close a short put spread (again, assuming it can be done at 50% max or greater).
I can also do an adjustment "non-additively" by just rolling in the untested side toward current price if I don't want to add units and the DTE is of sufficient duration. I generally don't roll in a side unless there are greater than 28 DTE left, particularly in this market, which has been somewhat whippy.
I also look at whether I can profitably mix and match put spread with call spread to reduce units, looking to close out for around a 1.40 ($140) profit, since the vast majority of the double double iron condors I put on that are ten wide on the put side with the short put leg at the 25 delta and the 2 x 5 wide with the short call leg at the -13 delta pay in the neighborhood of 2.80 ($280) per contract.
Generally, I only want to look at doing adjustments once a week, and only want to consider doing one additively if the net delta of the position is >+/- 5 delta, since a 45 DTE 10-wide spread on the put side with the short leg at the 25 delta only gives you about that amount, as does a 2 x 5 wide on the call side, with the short call legs camped out at the -13.
Currently, the net position is kind of spaghetti-works of spreads in the July 31st, August 7th, and August 21st contracts with 23.70 total credits collected on a capital requirement of 50.00, and a delta/theta of -13.23/28.80.
If I get time, I'll post all the individual spreads that are currently in the hopper ... .
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SPY: The Matryoshka Pattern Points to Massive Downside TargetWe have a fascinating "Matryoshka" (nested) ABC correction pattern developing on the 1-hour SPY chart. While the market has seen a recent short-term bounce, the macro structure remains heavily bearish as long as key resistance levels hold.
Here is the breakdown of why the Orange Matryoshka (C) Target is very much on the table.
📉 The Setup & Nested Structures
The chart shows a sequence of nested ABC correction waves playing out perfectly:
The Micro Black ABC: Completed its corrective bounce right into the designated target box near $755$.
The Inner Pink ABC: Triggered a sharp decline from the June 15th high, finding a temporary bottom near the $715$ area.
The Macro Orange Matryoshka: This is the overarching pattern driving the larger trend. The initial impulse leg down (A) and the subsequent corrective rally (B) are fully locked in.
🎯 Target and Invalidation Levels
The macro structural thesis is simple: We are tracking the major Wave (C) extension lower.
The Ultimate Target: The orange ABC Target zone sits between $680.00 and $695.00 .
The Invalidation Level: A clean break and daily close above the Wave (B) high (~$757.00) invalidates this entire bearish macro outlook. If price invalidates here, the bearish structure breaks, and we look for new highs.
🔄 Current Price Action (The Pivot Point)
Right now, price is consolidating inside a Weekly Control Level (WCL) bounce zone around $745.00 .
Bearish Case: This recent rally looks corrective, retesting broken structures. As long as it remains capped under the Invalidation line, the gravity of the large orange (C) target remains the dominant directional force.
Execution Note: It may take time, and we could see more choppy consolidation around the $745$ level before the next major leg down accelerates, but for now, the path of least resistance points lower.
Risk Management: Always protect your capital. A strict stop-loss or invalidation trigger sits just above the Wave (B) peak. If they break that, the bears lose control.
What do you think? Will the Matryoshka pattern fully play out to the $680–$690 zone, or will the bulls squeeze past the invalidation line? Let me know in the comments! 👇 Short 
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