Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 09 JULDaily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook
Risk Index
Current Market State: Short Term Slightly Bullish (downside risks remain) | Long Term Bullish
The Risk Index currently suggests that the market has shifted back into a short to medium term risk on environment. However, geopolitical risks continue to present downside uncertainty, meaning volatility can return quickly if negative headlines emerge. Despite that, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish.
This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time.
As long as the longer term structure remains bullish, we will continue looking for buying opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, tactical shorts can still be considered from major supply zones whenever price confirms rejection.
Scenarios / Prediction
Long Scenario
As long as price remains above 745, the path of least resistance continues to favor a move toward 750.
Trigger: Retest of 745 followed by a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level.
Targets: 747.5 → 750 → 752
Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 744.
Breakout Long Scenario
If price produces a confirmed 1-hour bullish close above 752, a breakout continuation trade can be considered following a successful retest.
Trigger: Retest of 752 followed by a bullish 1-hour candle close above the level.
Targets: 755 → 758.5
Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 750.
Short Scenario
The 750–752 area represents the primary supply zone. If price reaches this region and produces a strong bearish rejection, short exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Retest of the 750–752 supply zone followed by a strong 1-hour bearish candle close back below the level.
Targets: 747 → 745 → 740
Invalidation: 1 hour bullish candle close above 752.
Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice. 
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Echoes of 1929: The Liquidation Cliff ApproachingThe Macro Thesis: A Vertical Rally Built on Thin Ice
The market has pulled off a breathtaking V-shaped recovery from the April lows near $628.16, pushing past all conventional resistance. However, the technical architecture of this rally is flashing extreme distribution signals that look eerily similar to classic historical market tops—most notably, the pre-crash structure of 1929.
We have entered the final exhausting phase of the wedge, and the math says the upside is tapped out.
Technical Breakdown: Why the Music Stops Here
The 1.618 Fibonacci Trap: The vertical surge off the April bottom perfectly overextended into the 1.618 Fib extension level at $740.81. The current price action around $754.32 represents a classic "liquidity sweep" above this extension, trapping late-stage bulls.
The Tightening Wedge & Fan Lines: Price is currently constricting at the apex of multiple major intersecting trendlines. Volume is steadily declining as price edges higher, showing a severe lack of institutional buying pressure behind these new highs.
The Projected Path (August - October): Expect an immediate roll-over testing initial support near $700. A corrective bounce back up to retest broken structural support around $712 will likely act as the trap door, setting up a massive, high-velocity liquidation wave straight down to the $500 whole-number psychological level by October.
The 7-8 Month Fundamental Timeline: Upcoming Headlines That Will Trigger the Drop
A technical setup this severe requires a fundamental catalyst. Over the next 7 to 8 months, expect the macro narrative to shift violently. Here are the headlines that will likely drive this chart's projected path:
Late Summer (The Initial Roll-over): "Liquidity Squeeze: Commercial Paper and Corporate Debt Maturities Hit a Wall as Yields Spike."
Early Autumn (The Breakdown & Retest): "Margin Call Cascades: Systemic Funds Forced to De-risk as Tech Valuations Splinter."
Late Autumn (The Capitulation Wave): "The Credit Freeze: Global Credit Markets Lock Up in Sharpest Contraction Since the Financial Crisis."
Early 2027 (The Bottom & Stabilization): "The Great Re-pricing: S&P 500 Erases 2 Years of Gains as Central Banks Scramble for an Emergency Pivot."
Key Levels to Execute
🔴 Invalidation / Stop Zone: A sustained daily close above $765 invalidates this macro bearish bias.
🎯 Target 1: $700 (Initial structural support and psychological level)
🎯 Target 2: $628 (The April swing low retest)
🎯 Macro Target 3: $500 (Major terminal capitulation target)
What are your thoughts? Are we looking at a classic 1929-style rug pull, or does this melt-up have more legs? Let me know in the comments below!
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk. Short 
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SPY Day Trade 7/10 (15-Minute Chart)Yesterday morning I shared this chart and mentioned I was leaning bullish for Monday's open, despite the chart looking a bit bearish. So far, that thesis has held up pretty well. With today's price action, I've updated the chart by adding a new light orange trendline along with a revised blue path to better reflect the current structure.
The way I see it, SPY is now respecting this new ascending trendline, and as long as buyers continue defending it, I think there's still room for another push toward the upper resistance levels. That doesn't mean it'll be a straight shot higher—I'd actually expect plenty of chop along the way—but the structure continues to favor higher highs unless that trendline is lost.
The bearish scenario is still on the table, but after today's strength it's no longer my primary focus. If we lose the new trendline with conviction, then I'll reassess. Until then, I'm more interested in letting price prove it wants to continue higher rather than trying to pick a top.
Today's Game Plan
Today isn't a day where I want to overtrade. My plan is simple:
Day trade only.
Silence the noise at the market open.
Wait for 5-minute candle confirmation before taking any position.
I'm only expecting one or two quality trades at most.
Some days the best trade is the one you don't take. I'd rather wait for the market to come to me than force entries just because the opening bell rang.
As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator will be my trigger—not my prediction. The technical analysis provides the roadmap, but the indicator helps identify when the probabilities begin shifting in favor of Calls or Puts. Combined with 5-minute confirmation, that's the approach I'll be sticking with today.
Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade. SPY Is Back At The Highs And The Read Finally Agrees.SPY Is Back At The Highs And The Read Finally Agrees.
SPY has held its recovery all the way back to 751, right under the 752 highs, and this morning the read finally caught up to the price. After days of the conviction engine reading bearish while price rose, the surface flipped bullish and the daily thesis turned long for the first time in the standoff. The bull anchor that would not break all week is now being confirmed rather than doubted. The one caution left is that this is happening at the highs, with an unsustainable-upside flag still active - the read agrees, but the location is the worst part of the range to chase.
Resistance: 752.45 - the highs, the level to break
Key resistance: 760.40 - the cycle high
Current price: 751.80
Support: 748 - first support below
Key support: 740.44 - the shelf that held the shakeout
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The breakout to new highs. With the daily thesis long, the surface conviction confirming, and the bull anchor standing, a clean break of 752.45 opens the path to the 760 cycle high. This is the first time all week the read and the price have agreed on direction - the standoff resolving up.
The euphoria caps it. The one thing arguing against a chase is the unsustainable-upside flag still active at the highs, with some short conditions still loaded. If 752.45 rejects and price rolls back under 748, the failed-breakout risk returns and 740.44 gets a third test. Buying the highs into a euphoria flag is the low-reward side of this.
A week of coiling resolved with price back at the highs and, for the first time, the read agreeing with it - both timeframes long, conviction confirming. That is the bullish resolution. The catch is the location: at the highs, into an unsustainable flag, the move is confirmed but the entry is not. 752.45 is the level that turns confirmation into a breakout.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Research 10.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +0.21 0.03%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -1.30 -0.18%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
12:00 USA – WASDE Report
NASDAQ:SKHY - SK hynix IPO
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:WDFC NYSE:DAL
Other news:
NASDAQ:EQPT Raises 2026 Financial Outlook on Strong Customer Demand and Authorizes $500 Million Share Repurchase Program
UAE sells £4.4bn LSE:VOD stake to French telecoms tycoon
NYSE:CRCL wins final regulatory approval to establish US trust bank
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is rising while indexes are falling: NASDAQ:COIN NYSE:CRCL NASDAQ:MSTR NYSE:BMNR
A new report said NASDAQ:META plans to begin production of its data center chip, code-named "Iris," in September. NASDAQ:META is showing historic growth performance over the past 14 months.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:NRIX
Other news:
NASDAQ:FRMI to raise $350m in note offering
NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX CBOE:DRAM : Memory Stocks Fall Ahead Of SK Hynix's Nasdaq Debut Today
🏢 IPO
NASDAQ:SKHY – SK hynix
Company designs and manufactures advanced memory semiconductors, including DRAM, HBM and NAND flash. SK hynix is one of the world’s largest memory companies, ranked #2 in DRAM and #1 in HBM by revenue in Q1 2026. Core thesis is AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory used in GPUs, data centers and high-performance computing.
Price: $149.00 per ADS
ADS Sold: 177.9M
Raised: $26.51B
Market Cap at Pricing: ~$1.1T
Existing Listing: KRX KOSPI / 000660
LTM:
Revenue: $86.70B
Net Income: $49.35B
Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:MU , NASDAQ:WDC , NASDAQ:STX , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AVGO
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:WDFC NYSE:DAL NASDAQ:EQPT LSE:VOD NYSE:CRCL CRYPTOCAP:BTC NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MSTR NYSE:BMNR NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NRIX NASDAQ:FRMI NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AVGO
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
