Opening: USO October 16th 2 x 109P/-114P 155/165 Iron Condor... for a 2.74 credit.
Comments: Selling a little premium in the West Texas Intermediate ETF. Using a double double to accommodate skew a smidge.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.74 ($274)
Max Loss: 7.26 ($726)
ROC at Max: 37.7%
ROC at 50% Max: 18.9%
10% Width of the Wing TP: 13.8%
I've been generally looking to take profit on these for 10% of the width of the wing (i.e., 1.00 or $100), rather than hang out waiting for the full 50% max ... .
ETF market
IWM - Reversal Strategy Long Setup
🍀Overview
The strategy has identified a qualifying setup, triggered an alert, and placed a long bracket order according to predefined rules.
I am not a discretionary technical analyst, so I rely on predefined setups rather than subjective chart analysis. I built the rules into a strategy to make the decision-making process more systematic.
🍀Process
Ticker : AMEX:IWM
Date : 01/10/2026
Timeframe : Daily
Direction : Long
Strategy : Reversal Strategy
Strategy Overview : Ove
$UFO - I LIKE THE STOCK!Dumped ~40% and been in a long consolidation under the 200DEMA around the 50% Gann.
Looks like it's about to break the 9DEMA.
Note the slight bullish divergence on RSI.
Space and Defense stonks have been beaten down since the NASDAQ:SPCX IPO and spending hype for the war in Iran has sizzled down.
Potential upside ~60% back to ATH.
QQQ: 751.75 flush, lime printed the low, 5m cross confirmedQQQ opened with a flush to 751.75 in the first ten minutes, then put in the session's cleanest reversal sequence.
The lime buy triangle printed around 753.20–753.40 on the bounce near 10:00 — right at the shelf where the flush stopped going down. The discipline was not chasing the print: the 5-minute SMI was still washed out, and the turn wasn't complete until it golden-crossed. That cross was the entry trigger, and it's what separated this from the mid-flush prints that failed on other names t
IWM: Bearish Trends The ishares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed its most recent trading session at $281.52, up 0.90% on the day. the fund is navigating a volatile macroeconomic environment, trading between a 52-week range of $228.44 and $305.18. Analysts highlight that the fund continues to trail large cap indexes over the long term.
Technical View:
IWM is on a descending channel momentum. The ETF has been trending on this downside structure with lower lows and lower highs for a couple weeks now, in regard to the fr
SPY|SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 40 of 2026 (OCT 05-09)PREVIOUS WEEK'S RECAP
WEEK 39 SCOREBOARD
Confirmed Scenarios: 10
Reached First Partial: 10
Invalidated Before First Partial: 0
Scenario Hit Rate: 100%
ES: 3/3
SPY: 2/2
QQQ: 2/2
NQ: 3/3
Largest Move: NQ +525.5 Points
Result: A very clean week across the index scenarios.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
This Week's Prediction / Scenarios
Risk Index
What is the Risk Index Oscillator?
Current readings:
Long Term: Risk On
Mid Term: Risk On
Shor
QQQ Weekly Outlook – Week 40 of 2026 (OCT 05-09)PREVIOUS WEEK'S RECAP
WEEK 39 SCOREBOARD
Confirmed Scenarios: 10
Reached First Partial: 10
Invalidated Before First Partial: 0
Scenario Hit Rate: 100%
ES: 3/3
SPY: 2/2
QQQ: 2/2
NQ: 3/3
Largest Move: NQ +525.5 Points
Result: A very clean week across the index scenarios.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
This Week's Prediction / Scenarios
Risk Index
What is the Risk Index Oscillator?
Current readings:
Long Term: Risk On
Mid Term: Risk On
Short
Research 07.10.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY -2.69 -0.35%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -4.96 -0.65%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures fall as Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz lift oil and Treasury yields
09:00 USA – Used Car Prices
10:30 USA – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
11:00 USA – NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations
13:00 USA – 10-Year Note Auction
14:00 USA – FOMC Minutes
15:00 USA – Consumer Credit
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:NEOG , NASDAQ:PENG , NYSE:Z
SPY: back above the new monthly and quarterly pivot at 764.35SPY closed Monday at 774.83, above its new October and Q4 pivot at 764.35, so both the monthly and the quarterly bias point up. The next monthly target is 777.12 (Monday's high was 776.60), where a long-side process starts taking partial profits. The pivot is now the line to hold: a daily close back under 764.35 would undo the move. Intraday spikes don't count, only the close.
BIZD Pribvate Credit is flashing a warning CRACK!🚨 Investors are losing confidence in borrowers’ ability to pay, the reported value of the loans, and lenders’ ability to sustain dividends.
Big bear flag cracking!
What is no one really talking about? What does it mean?
If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment. Let’s push it to 7,000 and keep building a community grounded in raw truth, not hype.
SPY Slipped Back Under The 779.37 August High.SPY Slipped Back Under The 779.37 August High.
SPY is trading near 775.70 premarket after Tuesday traded through the 779.37 August high to 781.62 and then closed 28 cents under it at 779.09. Overnight it has given back the 779 area and sits just above Monday's 774.83 close. On the hourly, ACE reads Q1 against a bearish anchor with a yellow light; on the 4H the light is still green but conviction has dropped to Q4 against a bullish anchor, while the 4H structure remains bullish. Both timeframes
TQQQ: Ready to retrace?Yes it is TIME to get out ladies and gentlemen, Bearish setup is in place .
Targets are on The Daily TF. We have The Daily and the 4hrs TFs bearish setups in Sync.
Daily TF Zero Line target is on the table.
Play it right......................Play it safe....................Play it The Numberfive Way.
Boost......................Follow..................Share....................Comment.
Title: LatAm Oil: Why We're Watching Latin AmericaJapan has historically imported over 90% of its crude from the Middle East. With disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, Tokyo has accelerated its diversification: the government targeted more than 70% of supply from outside the Middle East starting in June, with Latin America among the alternative sources.
On the supply side, LatAm output is growing fast: Brazilian offshore (pre-salt), Argentina's Vaca Muerta, and Guyana ramping up.
Rising Asian demand + rising LatAm production = a potential
IWM Elliott Wave View: Anticipating Minimum Three‑Wave AdvanceThe Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has concluded its cycle from the March 20, 2026 low and is now entering a larger degree correction. The current pullback is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Within this formation, the first leg, wave (A), is proposed complete at $275.46, as illustrated on the 45‑minute chart. The internal subdivision of wave (A) developed into a clear five‑wave structure, confirming its impulsive nature. At present, wave (B) is advancing as a corrective rally, designed to
Market Summary: Tuesday October 6
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SOXL
Records and AI hardware led all day. The Nasdaq hit a record 27,477 and the S&P 7,774 Monday; Tuesday pushed further with the S&P touching 7,835.09 intraday and the Nasdaq another intraday high. Nvidia was the centerpiece, closing near $240 at ~$5.8 trillion after a $150 billion buyback authorization, then heading toward a potential $6 trillion first. TSMC's U.S. shares hit an intraday record on talks of a Terafab collaboration with Musk, SpaceX jumped 7.6
QQQ: Price Eyes For Potential BreakoutThe Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed its last trading session at $744.50, gaining +0.46% (+43.40). The ETF continues to hover near its 52 week high of $748.65 amid fluctuating market conditions. Broad indices closed in the green following the 2% drop in oil prices, helping QQQ shake off summer consolidation.
Technical outlook:
QQQ is on a bullish momentum after breaking above its short term downtrend at $716, in respect to the structure. Recently the ETF made a little reverse at the major resista
$80,000 bitcoin upswing that returns 100%- Bitcoin nearing $80,000 is a much anticipated correction IMO
- However, volume and a catalyst is needed to break 64k and 72k.
- Proxies like NASDAQ:MSTR and CBOE:MSTU will print
- Now if price trades lower to $49,000 - $55,000 (then an even tighter slingshot up)
- This trade idea is not for options. This is a time sensitive call out. Shares do not decay.
- Bitcoin is not a $65,000 network, it's deeply undervalued.
- NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
SPY: Don’t count the same volume three timesThree volume readings turn positive. Is that three confirmations—or one observation shown three ways?
Before adding confidence to a setup, check where the evidence comes from.
The completed SPY candle from October 6, 2026, 12:00–12:15 p.m. ET is a small example. The free Time-of-Day Volume Normalizer showed:
• Volume: 113.58K
• Relative volume: 1.08×
• Robust z-score: +0.19
• Percentile: 60
These readings use 60 complete regular sessions on the displayed Cboe One feed; seven sessions were ex
U.S. stocks extended Monday's record runMarket Today
U.S. stocks extended Monday's record run, with the Nasdaq up about 1.1% to a fresh record 27,477, the S&P 500 up about 0.7% to 7,774, and the Dow up about 0.2% to 51,268, powered by AI and tech names. Nvidia closed at a record near $240, nearing a $5.8 trillion market value after BNP Paribas raised its target to $345, while SpaceX jumped about 7.6% and Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft each gained over 1%. The rally runs alongside bond-market tension: the 10-year Treasury yield holds near
Research 06.10.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.55 +0.46%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +4.48 +0.59%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures rise as Treasury yields and oil retreat, with the 10-year at 5.27%
08:15 USA – ADP Employment Change Weekly
08:30 USA – Balance of Trade
09:05 USA – Fed Williams Speech
10:00 USA – RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
10:45 USA – Fed Bowman Speech
12:00 USA – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
13:00 USA – 3-Year Note Auction
13:15 USA – Fed Schmid Speech
19:00 USA – Fed Logan Sp
SPY Is Testing The August High At 779.SPY Is Testing The August High At 779.
SPY is trading near 777.60 premarket after Monday's close at 774.83 cleared 770.09 and confirmed Friday's reclaim of 765.52. Price is now pressing into the 775-779 band that capped August and September, with the August high at 779.37 directly overhead. Both the hourly and 4H dashboards carry a long thesis, and the 4H printed a new bullish conviction print on Monday, but the hourly is flagging a high sweep - a warning against chasing into the top of the ran























