QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 33 of 2026 (17-21 AUG)QQQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
QQQ Weekly Recap Outlook
Price first rejected from the Flip Zone at Wednesday's open, activating the Short Scenario.
We took the short setup and captured a 3.6-point, 0.5% move to the downside. We took three partial profits according to the plan, with the remaining position stopped at entry.
Then, on Thursday, price broke out above the Flip Zone and activated Long Scenario 3 after retesting the Flip Level.
The retest entry delivered a 2.5-point, 0.34% move to the upside. We took two partial profits, with the remaining position stopped at entry.
Two trades were taken this week, and both were closed in profit.
A very profitable week overall.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Activated: 5 (excluding open running equities)
Winning Trades: 5
Losing Trades: 0
Win Rate: 100% (on closed or partially closed sequences)
Index Options: 1 Trade (1 Win — QQQ)
Futures Desk: 4 Trades (3 Wins — NQ, 1 Win — ES)
Tactical Equities: 4 Plays (1 TP, risk-free runner; 3 Open)
Precious Metals: 1 Play (Silver, Open)
Result: Another green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
Long term: Risk on
Mid term: Risk on
Short term: Risk on
The overall market structure remains risk on across all three time horizons.
However, macro liquidity risks remain an important source of downside vulnerability. If negative macro news flow emerges, we could see sharp flushes lower despite the current risk-on structure.
For this reason, we will continue to prioritize disciplined execution, confirmation at key levels, and aggressive profit-taking as positions move in our favor.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
Demand 1 (730)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 727.
Long Scenario 2
Demand 2 (718)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 714.
Long Scenario 3
Flip Level (738)
This is the Flip Level for QQQ to watch. If price breaks above this level with a confirmed 4-hour candle close and subsequently retests the level, a long setup can be considered.
Trigger: Price must break above the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 736.
Short Scenario 1
Main Supply (741.5)
This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 744.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
ETF market
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 33 of 2026 (17-21 AUG)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
SPY Weekly Recap Outlook
We didn't take any trades on SPY this week because none of the key levels or scenarios we had mapped out were triggered.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Activated: 5 (excluding open running equities)
Winning Trades: 5
Losing Trades: 0
Win Rate: 100% (on closed or partially closed sequences)
Index Options: 1 Trade (1 Win — QQQ)
Futures Desk: 4 Trades (3 Wins — NQ, 1 Win — ES)
Tactical Equities: 4 Plays (1 TP, risk-free runner; 3 Open)
Precious Metals: 1 Play (Silver, Open)
Result: Another green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
Long term: Risk on
Mid term: Risk on
Short term: Risk on
The overall market structure remains risk on across all three time horizons.
However, macro liquidity risks remain an important source of downside vulnerability. If negative macro news flow emerges, we could see sharp flushes lower despite the current risk-on structure.
For this reason, we will continue to remain disciplined around key levels and prioritize aggressive profit-taking as the market moves in our favor.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
Flip Zone (775.25)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 774.
Long Scenario 2
Demand (770)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: Daily candle close below 767.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read carefully.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
SPY ATH?Hello Traders,
Well the market especially the NAS, QQQ and Tech has been selling off but the actual trend has not been broken. I believe Spy is the tell as it held the 50EMA today like a champ. Tomorrow we have the "Bull" Full Moon (Green Dot) and of course FOMC decision at 2. IMO we head higher to an ATH from here and tomorrow could be the "change" to get us headed in the right direction. Mercury Retrograded ended and a Bull full moon tomorrow. I think Citadel has put a scare in the market saying the fed could actually surprise raise rates tomorrow. Personally I think the chance of that is 0% and I think they put that story out to make the market sell off before before the decision. one thing we know is the FED doesn't do surprises.
Any who is they just say holding rates steady data dependent may be all the market needs as a sign of relief not raising to make it turn happy again.
Here is some of my target fib levels. I do see a downturn happening this fall. Possible could kick off with the next FED FOMC Sept 15,16 or something oil related.
Stay tuned...lets see if these cycles continue to play out like I predicted back in Feb in a previous idea.
SPY: Growth & Bullish Continuation
Looking at the chart of SPY right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPX 7700-7800 before big pullback in fallHello Traders!
Refer to my other idea posting from back February showing the cycle that predicted this very thing happening as Tom Lee just posted. Here is my updated spy chart showing the top targets then possible pullback targets. From my cycles I am predicting this one to be be bigger than most... Notice Tom Lee says feel like bear market. I indicate possible down targets depending on what sets the market down and how fast it accelerates. Once it bottoms then expect another nice bull market into new year...then could be another down move before April 2027 I see clear sky's for awhile at this point. Lets see what happens.
TOM LEE JUST LAID OUT THE 3 PHASES OF THE MARKET 2026
1. NOW - LATE SUMMER
- S&P 500 could reach 7,700-7,800
- AI and growth stocks continue to lead
- Bull market remains intact
2. SEPTEMBER - OCTOBER
- An "abrupt change in market conditions"
- Correction that could feel like a bear market
- Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs
- New equity supply equal to roughly 5-6% of S&P 500 market cap
- Energy and Fed transition risks
3. LATE 2026
- Strong recovery after the correction
- Potentially one of the strongest periods in decades
- AI, productivity gains, and economic growth drive the next leg higher
I called this cycle back in February
QQQ Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 713.40 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overal lBullish trend of the market.
Goal - 725.53
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XLB: Large Consolidation Is Building a Higher-Low StructureSniper Alpha has identified a large consolidation developing in XLB, the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF.
Although price remains inside a broad sideways structure, the internal structure is beginning to improve. XLB has already formed a higher low, followed by a higher high, while the latest pullback is still holding above the major horizontal support area.
This suggests that buyers may be gradually gaining control beneath the descending resistance line.
The main areas to watch are:
Descending trendline resistance
Recent swing-high zone around $52–$53
Major structural support near $49.50–$50.00
A confirmed breakout above the descending resistance, followed by acceptance above the recent highs, could allow XLB to attempt a move toward higher price levels.
Sniper Alpha Framework
Sniper Alpha starts with the sector, reads the price structure, and waits for confirmation before taking action. Improving higher lows and higher highs put XLB on the watchlist, but the breakout still needs to be confirmed.
If XLB continues strengthening, Sniper Alpha will look for individual Materials stocks showing stronger momentum and cleaner setups than the ETF.
No confirmation, no trade. Wait for structure. Respect risk.
QQQ at 20ema, 50ema, above week ema9 and inverse head shoulder!!NASDAQ:QQQ why are people bearish? Above weekly ema9, bounced above ema20 day as well as the 50ema day... also to me that would be an inverse head and shoulder's on the daily chart where qqq at would be the final leg before the pump!
It needs to hold the 50ema and the 20ema to make new ath and go to 800$ ish which is where the inverse head and shoulder's measured move pattern break target at.
Good time to be a bull
VOO TRACKS EVERYTHING THAT IS TRADED IN THE USA.I AM IMPLYING THAT THE MARKETS WILL RALLY VERY HARD.
The Impact of Tariffs and Monetary Policy on VOO and the U.S. Economy
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has been experiencing significant growth, mirroring the strength of the U.S. economy and the shifting landscape of global finance16. This upward trajectory can be attributed to several interconnected factors, including changes in monetary policy, the implementation of tariffs, and their effects on liquidity and investment patterns.
Central Bank Policies and the Carry Trade
Recent adjustments in interest rates by central banks worldwide have been made to align with the United States' monetary stance24. These changes have implications for the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets. The recalibration of interest rates globally could be contributing to increased capital flows into U.S. equities, benefiting funds like VOO.
Tariffs and Domestic Liquidity
The implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration, while controversial, may have unexpected positive effects on U.S. liquidity. Unlike the issuance of Treasury bills, which requires interest payments to foreign buyers, tariff revenues remain within the U.S. economy. This retention of capital can lead to increased domestic liquidity, potentially boosting equity values through direct investment or improved lending conditions for companies1.
The Money Multiplier Effect
Tariff revenues deposited in U.S. banks can trigger a significant money multiplier effect. Through fractional reserve banking, each dollar of tariff revenue could theoretically expand into much larger amounts of credit availability. This process, known as reflation, can stimulate economic activity without necessarily causing inflation5.
Shift from Treasuries to Equities
The influx of tariff revenue may reduce the government's reliance on Treasury bill issuance for funding. This shift could lead to a reorientation of investment patterns, with both domestic and foreign investors potentially increasing their allocation to U.S. equities. For countries seeking to anchor their currencies to dollar-denominated assets, U.S. equities may become an increasingly attractive alternative to Treasuries3.
Global Implications
The changing dynamics of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies have far-reaching effects on global markets. Smaller economies, in particular, may find themselves needing to adjust their currency management strategies, potentially leading to increased investment in U.S. equities as a means of stabilizing their own currencies2.
Inflation Considerations
It's important to note that while the stock market, including VOO, has seen significant nominal gains, the real value of these gains must be considered in light of inflation. With prices having roughly doubled, the purchasing power of investment returns has been affected, underscoring the importance of robust equity performance5.
In conclusion, the current rally in VOO and the broader U.S. equity market can be seen as a result of complex interplay between monetary policy, fiscal measures such as tariffs, and global economic dynamics. As these factors continue to evolve, they are likely to shape the trajectory of U.S. equities and the global financial landscape in the coming years.
ahhhh ! - dollar strong,ahhhh ! - dollar strong, USA Exporting more and more- the dollar is solid... the USA markets are the most liquid in the world - what is there to think about it? ?????? and the USA has a rrr of 10 , while china is massively levered with a rrr of barely 7.5 - I don't see the hesitation that your post implies.....
The USA - massive commodity reserves
The USA - Energy Exporter - now the largest in the world
The USA - massive agro production feeding the world
The USA - Zero beurocracy comared to India (bordrline comunist in some regions)
The USA - You are cute in your stance - as in naive -
The USA - Massive Army
shall I continue -
When a currency is defended by an army, a territory with natural resources and energy - that is a currency worth holding as reserve. -
Symetric Heads and Shoulders Pattern on $SPY 1hAMEX:SPY is starting to form a heads and shoulders pattern on the hourly time. If the pattern plays out (neckline break) I would expect AMEX:SPY to fall to the 0.5 fib level around $753.
In addition the the visible heads and shoulders pattern, the daily chart had a bearish macd crossover.
TLT LongNear historical low, Used as support
Entry 82.0
no Stop
Target 92, 100
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader. About 25% of my trades had been stopped quickly.
TLT BFF (buy for Free)
SellToOpen 2028-1-21 P77, 2.6x2 (Delta=-0.24)
BuyToOpen 2028-1-21 C82, 4.35 (Delta=0.90)
Entry of a net 0.85 credit.
Allow assignment to accumulate Conservative long term investment.
if P77 could be assigned, same as limit buy at 77.
No stop, buy and hold.
XOP upXLE : Energy producters like SHELL, totale etc
XOP : More Explorers
Hello there, AFTER 5 years of consolidation
Energy have it's turn. Ormuz is just an excuse. The geopolitical news are just diversions for the people to hide the true problem.
Don't forget : High cost of energy = crisis like 2008.
Follow this, i will do.
THE BEGINNING OF THE END? [SHORT] EQUITIESHere we see a repeated top pattern seen before the last two major bear rallies / markets. Do I need to say more? It looks really bad and im ready for it.
The last bull rally pop from 740 August is the classic blow top bull trap before cascading sells enter waterfall style!
QQQ/SPY topping and reversing means AI overextended stocks are about to deflate and correct harder than average
Enjoy!
--
🧠DATA DRIVEN signals
FOLLOW and LIKE for more high quality BACKTESTED signals from proprietary ML grade models, capable of accurately inferring phase, amplitude and likelihood unlike any mechanical indicator out there.
Opening: QQQ September 18th 676P/-686P Short Put Vertical... for a 1.78 credit.
Comments: This is a delta hedge against my Sept 4th and Sept 11th iron condors, which have skewed net delta negative, where their respective short put vertical aspects just aren't providing that much pro anymore, and where their duration (28 DTE, and 35 DTE) are getting a little bit short in duration to the short put verticals up.
It is probably not good standalone trade, since the general preference would be to enter a directional on weakness and higher IV, but you gotta do what you gotta do ... .
Is it finally time to short semiconductors? I think soIf we look at the chart here, we can see that we've now formed a higher low.
If we can break above $48.50 that should start the move higher. If price can decisively break the $63 range, then it's pretty much clear skies up to the top resistance area for a potential 10x from these levels.
Note: This is a 3x leveraged ETF so it's risky to trade if you don't know what you're doing.
Look for a clean breakout first.
Opening: USO October 16th 2 x 109P/-114P 155/165 Iron Condor... for a 2.74 credit.
Comments: Selling a little premium in the West Texas Intermediate ETF. Using a double double to accommodate skew a smidge.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.74 ($274)
Max Loss: 7.26 ($726)
ROC at Max: 37.7%
ROC at 50% Max: 18.9%
10% Width of the Wing TP: 13.8%
I've been generally looking to take profit on these for 10% of the width of the wing (i.e., 1.00 or $100), rather than hang out waiting for the full 50% max ... .
SPY 500 — The Battle at 765SPY is sitting at a critical decision zone. After a clear intraday decline, price has bounced from the lower levels and is now testing the 765.12 resistance area.
🔥 Trading Setup
Current: ~764.84
🔴 Resistance: 765.12
🟢 Support: 764.20
Bullish scenario 🚀
A sustained breakout above 765.12 could open the path toward:
🎯 767.34
🎯 769.16
🎯 771.02
Bearish scenario ⚠️
If 765.12 rejects price and 764.20 breaks, downside levels become:
🎯 762.61
🎯 761.05
🎯 759.20
🧠 My View
The key isn't predicting the next candle—it's watching which level breaks first.
Above 765.12 = bullish momentum can accelerate.
Below 764.20 = sellers regain control.
Patience at the levels > prediction in the middle.
SPY Dipped To 762 Then Reclaimed 765.71.SPY Dipped To 762 Then Reclaimed 765.71.
SPY lost 765.71 and dropped to 762 overnight, but reclaimed the level and is trading 766, back above it. Thursday's read flagged a potential short only if price held below 765.71 - it did not hold, it reclaimed, so the breakdown stalled and no short setup confirmed. Price is now chopping around 765.71 with the 4H thesis still short but the level defended, and a fresh bear announcement printed right at it. Undecided on the line. Neutral.
Resistance: 769.15 - first shelf overhead
Key resistance: 771.58 - the range top
Current price: 766.23
Support: 765.71 - the reclaimed line, the pivot
Key support: 762.57 - the overnight low
Structural floor: 759.67 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
It holds 765.71 and bounces to 771.58. The reclaim of the level defends the range and could carry back toward 771.58. Holding 765.71 after the dip is the constructive tell.
It loses 765.71 again and the decline resumes. A decisive close back below 765.71 reopens the drop toward 762 and 759. The 4H short thesis favors this if the level gives. The line is the pivot.
SPY dipped below 765.71 and reclaimed it - the breakdown stalled at the line. Holding 765.71 bounces toward 771.58; losing it decisively resumes the decline. Right on the pivot, undecided.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
Research 21.08.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.57 0.47%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +5.60 0.79%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has surged 23% over the past two days, while NASDAQ:MSTR is up 35% and NASDAQ:COIN has gained 27%.
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:ROST NYSE:BKE NYSE:BEKE NYSE:BJ NYSE:UI
Other news:
AMEX:GDXU — the Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN — has surged more than 50% over the past three days.
-- Another sign that investor interest is shifting from one group of risk assets to another: NYSE:HMY NYSE:GFI NASDAQ:HYMC NYSE:NEM NYSE:AEM NYSE:WPM NYSE:AU and others
Nomura, in its latest Asia ex-Japan Daily Research Summary on Friday, highlighted stronger-than-expected operating performance at NASDAQ:NTES NetEase.
NASDAQ:SKHY considers building memory chip plant in Japan, Hankyoreh reports
NASDAQ:JUNS pumping after 1/75 split
NASDAQ:SPCX : Following the lock-up expiration, $45 billion worth of SpaceX shares will become available for trading.
Spotify NYSE:SPOT increased its share buyback program by $1.5 billion.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:OSIS
Other news:
NYSE:BABA Falls as AI Spending Surges 75% and Profit Misses
NYSE:GSK shares kept at neutral by Citi as unproven phase III pipeline curbs long-term growth
‼️ Additional
UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100.
Most analysts are bullish on European equities, with a further 10% gain expected by the end of this year — BBG.
China is rapidly narrowing the gap with the US in AI — BBG.
The USD continues to weaken against major currencies.
-- BofA: A failed intervention in the US bond market risks triggering a sharp decline in the dollar.
-- The stakes are now very high for Bessent, as he needs to preserve market stability ahead of the November US midterm elections.
-- BESSENT: THE SIZE OF BUYBACKS OF LONG-DATED BONDS COULD EXCEED THE $4 BILLION ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY.
🔁 Business Combination / De-SPAC
NASDAQ:RFAI – RF Acquisition Corp II / Nanyang Biologics
Nanyang Biologics is a Singapore-based early-stage biotech using AI to discover drug candidates from natural compounds. Its Vecura / DTIGN platform supports a preclinical pipeline led by NB-A002, an experimental oncology therapy targeting ILF2. The company also has cardiovascular and mental health programs, but currently has no approved drugs and no meaningful commercial revenue.
Expected New Ticker: $NYB
Key points:
Nanyang remains a highly speculative preclinical biotech; valuation is based mainly on future pipeline and AI-platform potential rather than an established commercial business
Net Loss: ~$7.22M for the six months ended March 31, 2026
Cash: ~$0.89M as of Sept. 30, 2025
Low-float setup:
Around 3.998M public RFAI shares remained after an earlier redemption
Holders subsequently submitted preliminary redemption requests for 3.956M shares
If nearly all requests remain in place, the remaining public float could theoretically fall to roughly 42K shares
Final redemption amount and float are not yet confirmed because requests can still be withdrawn
Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:RXRX , NASDAQ:SDGR , NASDAQ:ABCL , NASDAQ:TEM , NASDAQ:CRSP , NASDAQ:BEAM
📋 List of tickers involved:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:ROST NYSE:BKE NYSE:BEKE NYSE:BJ NYSE:UI NYSE:HMY NYSE:GFI NASDAQ:HYMC NYSE:NEM NYSE:AEM NYSE:WPM NYSE:AU NASDAQ:NTES NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:JUNS NASDAQ:SPCX NYSE:SPOT NASDAQ:OSIS NYSE:BABA NYSE:GSK NASDAQ:RFAI $NYB NASDAQ:RXRX NASDAQ:SDGR NASDAQ:ABCL NASDAQ:TEM NASDAQ:CRSP NASDAQ:BEAM
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
VPNG | Continued growth ETF- Timeframe: Weekly
- Trade type: Buy stop order
- Price: 20.00
- Take Profit: Open
- Stop Loss: 18.13 (-9.40 %)
Idea: Long on a breakout above last week's high - bullish momentum continuation.
Entry: Buy stop above last week’s high.
Stop-loss: Below the low of the same candle.
If the weekly candle closes below this level, the trade is invalidated.
Take Profit: Trailing stop following the lows of new weekly candles.






















