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QQQ Elliott Wave Signals Double Correction Toward 684The short‑term Elliott Wave view on the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) shows that the instrument is correcting the cycle from the March 30, 2026 low. The decline from the June 3, 2026 all‑time high continues, with the extreme target zone defined by the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension. This area lies between $646 and $684 and represents the next logical support cluster within the ongoing correction. From the June 16 high, the cycle has unfolded as a double three structure. Wave (w) ended at $697.86, followed by a counter‑trend rally in wave (x) that peaked at $726.40. The ETF then resumed lower in wave (y), which subdivides into another double three, highlighting the complexity of the correction. Within wave (y), the decline from wave (x) produced wave w at $686.76. The subsequent rally in wave x ended at $705.80. The ETF has since turned lower again. A break beneath $686.76 is required to confirm that the correction is extending as a double sequence. Until then, the possibility of a more complex consolidation remains. Near term, the pivot at $737.72 is critical. As long as this high remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in either three or seven swings. This reinforces the downside bias and favors continuation lower toward the $684 area, consistent with the projected Fibonacci extension zone.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
SPY Held 740.44 Again. Same Setup, Third Approach.SPY Held 740.44 Again. Same Setup, Third Approach. The second test of 740.44 held, exactly as it needed to. SPY bounced to 745.24, structure has flipped back to bull, and hourly conviction is top-quartile with a long thesis. The floor is proving itself with two defenses now. And the trigger has not moved: 748 on a close. This is the third time this setup has assembled, and twice already it stalled short of the level without firing. The setup is good. The trigger is what matters, and it has not been hit. Neutral. Resistance: 748.00 - the trigger, unchanged Key resistance: 751.00, then the 755.66 ceiling Current price: 745.24 Support: 742.00 - first support Key support: 740.44 - the twice-defended floor Structural floor: 739.34 - the swept low Two paths from here: 748 finally closes above and the setup triggers. A twice-defended floor, bull structure, and top-quartile conviction is the strongest version of this setup yet. A confirmed close above 748 opens 751 and the ceiling, and it is the event that would earn a directional call on the one instrument where breaks carry an edge. It stalls under 748 for a third time. Two prior attempts failed within a point of the level. A third failure sends price back to 740.44 for a third test, and a floor tested three times is weaker each time. Repeated failure to clear is itself information. The floor keeps holding and the setup keeps rebuilding, but 748 has not closed above in three attempts. Until it does, the honest read is a range between 740.44 and 748, not a trend. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
XLK/SPY at a Key Pullback Zone — Is Tech Ready to Regain StrengtXLK/SPY is testing an interesting area after weeks of underperformance. The ratio briefly traded below support before reclaiming it, while Stochastic is forming a bullish divergence —price made a lower low, but momentum held a higher low. This does not confirm a reversal yet, but the reaction from this former breakout area suggests selling pressure may be fading. If the level continues to hold, tech could be preparing to regain relative strength against SPY. This is how the Sniper Alpha framework reads sector rotation: Track sector performance against SPY. Look for a pullback into a meaningful support area. Watch for momentum to stabilize or diverge. If relative strength turns higher, scan that sector for stocks already building strong bases near resistance. The strongest stocks often start showing strength before the sector fully recovers. For now, XLK/SPY is still below the shorter EMAs, so confirmation matters. I’ll be watching whether the ratio can hold this area and begin reclaiming EMA55. No confirmation, no chase. The chart leads—the trade comes later. For educational purposes only.
AMEX:XLK
by SniperAlphaResearch
BITO - Forecasting a Huge Move SoonOne really important BTC ETF chart I want to lay out is BITO, ProShares 1x Bitcoin ETF. This ETF remains highly traded for short term tactical positioning, which is exactly why it is worth analyzing right now. It appears active market participants are expecting a significant move for Bitcoin very soon, and that is showing up clearly in how they are positioning within this ETF. You can see this through the rapidly increasing volume. For most of its life, BITO traded well under 100 million shares per week. Toward the end of 2025 that began ramping up above 100 million shares per week, and volume has since accelerated even further. Last week, BITO recorded total volume of just under 2 billion shares! What makes this particularly notable is not just the size of the number, but the pattern behind it. Volume increased every single day that week without exception. Monday, July 13: 277,275,900 shares Tuesday, July 14: 407,703,000 shares Wednesday, July 15: 496,250,000 shares Thursday, July 16: 553,007,500 shares Friday, July 17: 633,367,473 shares Volume more than doubled from Monday to Friday alone, with each day building on the last. This surge is likely tied directly to the speculation around a significant low being formed at $57,800 for Bitcoin. I want to outline a few of my recent ideas that support what BITO is currently signaling through this volume surge. First, I outlined ProShares' 2x leveraged ETF market structure a couple weeks ago. That idea can be found here: Even in that idea I noted slightly increasing volume at the time, but nowhere near what is currently being seen on BITO. I also previously pointed out that IBIT's low was likely in. It may not yet be the full bear market low, but it has acted as a significant pivot low so far and should continue to hold that role for some time. Review that idea here: For the broader BTC analysis supporting this thesis, view these ideas:
AMEX:BITO
by VIAQUANT
S&P 500 - SPY | Breakout or Bull Trap🇺🇸 SPY | Institutions Return After the Weekend – Breakout or Bull Trap? SPY enters the new trading week with investors closely watching corporate earnings, Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury yields, and geopolitical developments. Monday's session often establishes the tone for the week, making opening volatility an important indicator of institutional participation. A sustained move above Fibonacci 0.5 could extend the prevailing trend, while rejection from higher levels may invite short-term profit booking. Key Market Drivers 📈 Q2 earnings season remains the primary market catalyst. 🏦 Federal Reserve rate expectations continue to influence equity valuations. 🌍 Geopolitical tensions and global trade developments may impact investor sentiment. 💵 Treasury yields and U.S. Dollar strength remain key indicators for risk appetite. 🤖 AI and mega-cap technology stocks continue to lead overall market direction. Trading Plan 🟢 Bullish Scenario: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the opening range with increasing volume before considering long positions. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold intraday support or rejection from resistance could trigger profit booking and a move toward lower support levels. "Monday isn't about predicting the market—it's about identifying where institutional money is flowing and trading with the trend."
AMEX:SPY
by globuscapitas
1
July 29th 2026 Market AnalysisThe market continues to show signs of inefficiency. Since my last post, Oil has regained lost ground and is climbing back towards the range. Since traders are digesting geopolitical risk, it is useful to look elsewhere to assess whether this may be a reversion back to the Supply Zone or if there is underlying risk-off positioning. Equity prices are still high, having retreated slightly from ATHs, yet the Equity Risk Premium is extremely weak due to pressure from Real Yields. It is worth noting that Breakevens FRED:T5YIE are not falling sharply like they were in May and June, while nominal yields TVC:US05Y are showing signs of acceptance. Real yields FRED:DFII5 could weaken if there is divergence between Breakevens and nominal yields, which would provide support to the Equity Risk Premium. FX is reflecting yield seeking and positioning in favor of strong Oil. I would consider this risk-on with a geopolitical caveat. Lastly, my market structure dashboard shows that the market has been paying up for Volatility protection over the last few sessions, notably more so in the form of convexity protection ( CBOE:VVIX ). Skew is crowded NASDAQ:SDEX and the market is already expecting low breadth, so there is liquidity if expensive protection is no longer needed. Macro Dashboard FX Dashboard Swing Dashboard Structure Dashboard
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ap769
Weekly Bias — 20 JulyThe picture is more balanced when we take a step back from NASDAQ:QQQ alone, when we look at intermarket leadership, volatility, dispersion & breadth Bullish (65%) Short-term trend is corrective This a correction rather than a new bear leg (~65–70%) Deeper correction below NASDAQ:QQQ $686 (~30–35%) Normally, if yields are falling while NASDAQ:QQQ is correcting, I'd expect the correction to become more technical/positioning-driven than macro-driven VIX at 18.8 deserves respect, but not fear Below the March spike Still below the 20–22 level where corrections often accelerate Front-month futures remain orderly Volatility is elevated, but we're not seeing panic COR1M has risen sharply over the last week Means options traders increasingly expect stocks to move together rather than idiosyncratically Usually associated with macro hedging, ETF hedging & index selling It's a yellow flag, not necessarily a red one DSPX is still trending higher Higher dispersion means stock selection is still mattering If dispersion were collapsing while correlation exploded, I'd worry much more about broad index liquidation Instead, dispersion suggests there's still differentiation underneath the surface VXN/VIX ratio remains elevated The options market is demanding relatively more protection for NDX than for the SPX NASDAQ:QQQ weakest, AMEX:SPY stronger & AMEX:IWM relatively resilient It's another sign this is concentrated in growth rather than broad market panic The NDX/NDXE ratio is rolling over Mega-cap component of NDX has been underperforming the equal-weight version This is healthy in one sense because it suggests leadership is broadening rather than narrowing It's also one reason why AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM have been holding up better than NASDAQ:QQQ The NDFI panel has weakened materially One of the more bearish breadth signals since it tells me fewer stocks are participating in the rally It's not a collapse, but it's another indication that internal momentum has cooled NASDAQ:SMH is still outperforming NASDAQ:QQQ over the larger trend, although that leadership has moderated As long as semis remain relatively strong, it's difficult to make a strong structural bear case for NDX Software ( CBOE:IGV ) has been underperforming for months NDX/SPX has been falling Again, money rotating away from mega-cap growth AMEX:SPY remains remarkably healthy Even after Friday, well above major support around $738–$740 Doesn't look like an index beginning a major bear trend AMEX:IWM continues to strengthen the "correction, not collapse" argument It's holding $294–$295, above its major support near $290 rather than new relative lows If institutions were aggressively de-risking, I'd expect AMEX:IWM to be underperforming NASDAQ:QQQ remains the weakest I still think Friday produced a legitimate sell-side liquidity sweep However, the lack of a strong close back above $700 means it hasn't been validated as a successful bear trap Intermarket analysis suggest IV is elevated & RV is likely to stay above average, but unless NASDAQ:QQQ loses $686, I still expect RV over the next several sessions to fall short of the extreme front-end premium that was priced before expiration Bullish NASDAQ:QQQ holds $693–$695 AMEX:SPY stays above $740 AMEX:IWM holds $293–$294 VIX fails to break 20 NASDAQ:QQQ reclaims $700, then $706 Would make Friday look increasingly like a successful liquidity sweep within a larger continuation pattern Bearish NASDAQ:QQQ closes below $693 AMEX:SPY loses $738 AMEX:IWM loses $290 VIX pushes above 20–21 COR1M continues to spike while breadth deteriorates further Combination would materially increase the probability of a move toward $686 & if that level fails, the next technical support would likely be the 100d EMA near $665 NASDAQ:QQQ by itself looks cautious, but the intermarket evidence is notably less bearish Falling yields are supportive AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM continue to show relative resilience Semis are still outperforming the broader market the larger trend Volatility is elevated, but not exhibiting panic characteristics The main concern is breadth, which has weakened & NDX leadership, which has narrowed I believe the market is closer to the end of a correction rather than the beginning of a sustained bear trend given the broader evidence doesn't support a high-conviction bearish outlook, but the bulls need to prove it this week & reclaim $700–$706 on NASDAQ:QQQ
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
TLT LongNeutral bullish stance, Option strategy to long in sideway and down side, Collect premium and wait for a pullback to buy at 82.4, at the historical low. Entry 83.6 no Stop Sideway Target 87 Risk management is much more important than a good entry point. I am not a PRO trader. About 25% of my trades had been stopped quickly. TLT SellToOpen Sep P84, 1.64 Allow assignment to accumulate Conservative long term investment. if P84 could be assigned, same as limit buy at 82.36 (historical bottom) No stop, buy and hold.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PlanTradePlanMM
I Made $10,467 By January 31. I Haven't Been Paid Since March 27I Made $10,467 By January 31. I Haven't Been Paid Since March 27. Four payouts. One month. $10,467. That's how January closed on my Topstep account. If you had only seen that log, you'd have assumed the rest of the year looked the same. A payout every few weeks, a bit bigger each time, on a steady clock. One more payout landed on 27 March. $671. Then the log went quiet. It's 21 July now. Nearly six months since that first payout, across a combined $300,000 in funded accounts, and the log has exactly one line after January. "Did the system stop working?" That's the question the log alone would have you ask. The Log, In Full Here it is, no editing. $4,020 on 28 January. $2,235 on 31 January. Another $2,235 on 31 January, same day, second request. $1,977 on 31 January. $671 on 27 March. Five payouts. $11,138 requested. Then nothing. Not because I stopped trading. Not because the account closed. Because the payout gate hasn't been cleared since. What A Payout Actually Requires Topstep doesn't pay out on a calendar. It pays out on a gate. I need five winning days of $150 or more before I can request anything. A winning day isn't "green." It's net $150 or more, in one session, on that account. Land five of those inside a cycle and I can request 50% of the balance, up to $5,000, split 90/10 in my favour. Land four, and the request doesn't exist yet. Land zero, same thing. January had enough $150-plus days, back to back, to fund four separate payout requests. Since 27 March, the account hasn't produced five more of them in one live cycle. That's the entire explanation. Not a suspended account. Not a rule breach. A gate that a slower stretch of the same system hasn't cleared yet. January Wasn't The System Here's the part that's easy to get backwards. January didn't prove the system works. Four months without a fifth payout doesn't prove it stopped. Both are readings of a sample too short to mean anything, just measured on the calendar instead of on trade count. You've done this with your own results. A great week gets read as "I've finally figured it out." A quiet month gets read as "maybe this doesn't work for me." Neither read is coming from the data. Both are coming from how recently something good or bad happened. The system that produced four payouts in one month is the exact same system sitting in a payout drought since March. Nothing was swapped out in between. If January was skill, the current stretch can't quietly be the edge running out. It's the same rules, meeting a slower stretch of the market. The Trade I'm Not Making The fastest way to end this drought is obvious. Size up until a $150 day arrives faster. Take a marginal setup because the account needs a green day, not because the setup earned one. That would probably work, once. It would also mean I stopped trading my tested rules and started trading the gate instead. A win taken outside my rules to force a payout is a bad trade wearing a good result. I'd rather sit in an unpaid stretch that's honest than force one with a trade my own backtest never approved. So the accounts keep trading exactly the way they traded in January. No new size. No new setup. No exception for the calendar. What Would Actually Worry Me None of this means I'd ignore every signal. A drought like this only stops meaning "quiet cycle" and starts meaning "problem" under specific conditions. If the losing days started breaking my own risk rules, that's a flag. If the setups stopped matching what I backtested, that's a flag. If this ran for a full year with no fifth day in sight, that's a flag serious enough to review the whole approach. None of those are true right now. What's true is a gate that hasn't cleared in four months, on a system with a track record before this stretch started. That's a slow patch, not a verdict. Check Your Own Log First Open your own trading log. Find your best month on record. Now look at what happened in the months right after it. If the answer is "quieter," ask yourself honestly whether you decided the strategy stopped working, or whether you actually checked if your rules were still being followed and your setups were still showing up. Most traders never separate those two questions. They just feel the quiet stretch and start changing things. If you want to track that properly instead of guessing from memory, use a trade journal. Log the winning days, the losing days, and whether you followed your own rules on each one. That log is what tells you whether you're in a slow cycle or an actual problem. Stay consistent. Stay safe.
AMEX:SPY
by KeeleyTan
Research 21.07.2026🌏 Markets: AMEX:SPY +3.42 0.46%(pre/m) NASDAQ:QQQ +9.27 1.33%(pre/m) 🆕 Economic News: Markets to Open Up as AI Fears Fade 08:15 USA – ADP Employment Change 16:30 USA – API Crude Oil Stock Change 📈 Gap Ups Reaction to earnings/guidance: NYSE:MMM NYSE:CCK NYSE:NVS NASDAQ:VICR NYSE:GM NYSE:GPC NASDAQ:AGNC NYSE:DHI NYSE:SCHW Other news: NYSE:TSM to raise chipmaking prices by up to 10% in 2027 / NYSE:UMC -- Global chip stocks staged a meaningful rebound on Tuesday, building on Monday's recovery from last week's broad selloff in the sector. : NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:INTC -- Beaten-Down Memory Stocks Extend AI Rebound Ahead Of Tech Earnings : NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX NASDAQ:SKHY European shares inch higher as easing oil prices lift sentiment NASDAQ:ASML LSE:BSC NYSE:NOK NYSE:LYG NASDAQ:NBIS shares climb after Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reveals 9.3% ownership stake and analysts lift targets NASDAQ:MBLY to supply NYSE:STLA with cloud-based driver assistance technology Trump has agreed to the ethics provision in the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill, thereby removing the last major obstacle to a Senate vote. : NYSE:CRCL NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:IREN raised its cloud AI revenue outlook. NASDAQ:AMD is expanding its partnership with Microsoft $MSFT. NASDAQ:GOOGL plans to release its new AI chip — The Information. 📉 Gap Downs Reaction to earnings/guidance: NYSE:CALX NYSE:EFX NYSE:DHR NYSE:MSCI NASDAQ:ZION NSE:HAL NASDAQ:WTFC NYSE:NOC NYSE:WRB NASDAQ:STLD NYSE:ALL NYSE:SYF NASDAQ:HAS NYSE:AUB Other news: NYSE:MGY to acquire WildFire Energy in $4.1bn Eagle Ford deal , including outstanding debt. NASDAQ:ADBE NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:INTU and NASDAQ:WDAY fall as Morgan Stanley begins cautious coverage A federal court has temporarily halted the $110 billion merger between Paramount NASDAQ:PSKY and Warner Bros. NASDAQ:WBD The lawsuit claims the merger would “destroy competition” in Hollywood. -- The current restraining order will remain in effect for 14 days. ‼️ Additional SHORT BETS AGAINST US EQUITIES HIT RECORD Goldman: Brent could rise above $120 by Q4 2026 if disruptions to transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continue. Trump will impose 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods over alleged trade discrimination. -- The tariffs will take effect 30 days after Trump signs the executive order. TRUMP MAY IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS ON IMPORTS FROM DOZENS OF COUNTRIES AS SOON AS THIS WEEK — FT. Trump is preparing a new round of tariffs targeting dozens of countries ahead of the expiration of the current 10% global tariff this week. According to the Financial Times, the administration is considering keeping the 10% rate in place for many countries, while using legal mechanisms to impose higher tariffs on others. 📋 List of tickers involved: NYSE:MMM NYSE:CCK NYSE:NVS NASDAQ:VICR NYSE:GM NYSE:GPC NASDAQ:AGNC NYSE:DHI NYSE:SCHW NYSE:TSM NYSE:UMC NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:ASML LSE:BSC NYSE:NOK NYSE:LYG NASDAQ:NBIS NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MBLY NYSE:STLA NYSE:CRCL NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:IREN NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL NYSE:CALX NYSE:EFX NYSE:DHR NYSE:MSCI NASDAQ:ZION NSE:HAL NASDAQ:WTFC NYSE:NOC NYSE:WRB NASDAQ:STLD NYSE:ALL NYSE:SYF NASDAQ:HAS NYSE:AUB NYSE:MGY NASDAQ:ADBE NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:INTU NASDAQ:WDAY NASDAQ:PSKY NASDAQ:WBD Best regards – hi2morrow team.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hi2morrow_team
Fundamentals of Cycles, Part 1: Is Your Trend Really a Cycle?📊 Incorporating an awareness of cycles into your trading and investment strategy has the opportunity to provide new insights and perspective on price movements. The natural and business worlds are filled with examples of cycles – is it far fetched to think these cycles make their way into the markets as well? 🧠 As a thought experiment, examine the chart on the left hand side above. We see support levels, triangle formations, and relatively lengthy up/down trends - it very much looks like a stock, index, or currency chart. However, this image was created entirely from a set of interacting sine-wave "cycles" (on top of a gentle upward trend). If similar short and long-term cycles are present in the market, identifying them can help us look past news headlines and develop more disciplined trading strategies. Think about some cycles we are all aware of: 🔷Natural cycles: Solar (years, and Earth's tilt driving seasons) Lunar phases Sleep-wake 🔷Perhaps more compelling - business cycles: Bi-monthly salary payments and corresponding 401K investments Quarterly company reporting Four-year US presidential terms 🎯 There is an old saying – that a single moment can change all the rest that follow. Picking up "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst – one of the fathers of modern cyclic analysis – was one such occasion for me, and it put cycles at the foundation of my market analysis. The next time you are looking at a chart - take a moment to consider - is this a trend or a cycle? 📌 This is just the first step - positing that cycles may exist within market data and that they can even explain some "textbook" technical patterns we are trained to spot. In a future post we will build on this foundation by examining how chart offsets can help us examine potential daily and weekly cycles and turn them into cycle projections to help identify potential market turning points and price targets.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by PeterEliades
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (20-24 JUL)QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK UA CAPITAL RECAP 19.07 | WEEK 13-17 JUL The execution throughout the week closely followed our published trading plans. Monday and Tuesday, both SPY and QQQ Long Scenario 1 trades from the Weekly Market Outlook reached profitable outcomes. Wednesday's updated Tactical Playbook generated new long opportunities in both SPY and QQQ, with both trades closing profitably. No new trades were taken on Thursday. Friday's Tactical Playbook successfully identified short opportunities in both SPY and QQQ. Both positions generated multiple partial profit targets and continue to hold small runner positions into next week. Ahead of Tuesday's CPI release, we also opened VIX hedge positions on Monday afternoon and closed them Tuesday morning for approximately a 36% gain. In total, seven options trades were executed throughout the week, and all seven finished as winners. It was an exceptional week from both an execution and risk management perspective, resulting in a 100% winning record across every completed options trade. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) Equities Play Throughout the week we also continued building medium-term spot positions in selected companies through the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. To maintain disciplined risk management, new purchases were limited to only one-quarter of our available buying power, bringing our total deployed capital to approximately 50% of our intended allocation. Our plan remains unchanged. We intend to continue gradually building these medium-term positions from attractive technical levels with an investment horizon extending into November and December 2026. The specific names remain exclusive to the private Trading Desk, although our primary focus continues to be concentrated in the technology and semiconductor sectors. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush. The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish. This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops. Given the potential for rapid acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (688) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 681. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (663) This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: Daily candle close below 653. Flip Scenario FLIP Level (709) This is the major flip zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close above, long exposure can be considered. Market yukarıdaki supply bölgelerine hareket gerçekleştirecek bir bullish yapıya evrilebilir. Trigger: Price must break above the level 709 and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close above the Flip Level. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 1 hourly candle close below 700. Short Scenario 1 FLIP Level (700) This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity. Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline. Invalidation: 1-hour candle close above 709. Short Scenario 2 Main Supply (735) This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity. Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 744. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Invalidation levels are unique for each other. Read it carefully. 6. Charts using RTH (regular trading hours). ETH gives you wrong candle confirmation. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, tactical SPY/SPX - QQQ outlooks, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL
Fed blackout; AI-capex cluster, tariff sunset 7/24Four dated events inside five days carry the tape into the July 28-29 FOMC and the Fed is in blackout the whole week. USTR Section 301 determinations on Monday 7/20 (weakly sourced date, verify). The midweek after-close earnings cluster (TSLA, TXN, NOW and IBM's formal print Tuesday, GOOGL the Wednesday marquee) is the first live test of the AI-capex top read that fired on 7/17 across the semis and hyperscaler shorts. The SOX closed the week -12.5% and over 20% off its late-June high, bear-market territory, after China's Moonshot open model. Section 122 sunsets 00:01 ET Friday 7/24, taking the US effective tariff rate from about 11% to about 8.2% absent a Congressional extension (no extension bill pending). Friday 9:45 the Flash PMIs land, composite consensus ~51.9 (July), June manufacturing 55.7 and services 51.3. Composite over 50 keeps the growth crack un-tripped and the higher-for-longer, no-cut regime intact. On Saturday I posted the QQQ weekly-top call: QQQ closed the week -4.16% at 695.33, back under the first Warsh FOMC key level 731.62 (my median of the event range, the price that bakes in expectations plus reaction plus digested positioning around the regime-reset FOMC). Weekly signal projects five downside targets stacking to 468. Structure rhymes with the January 2022 top. Invalidation is a weekly close over 731.62. SPY closed under its Warsh line 745.41 too, so the AI-capex re-rate is broader than one index. Energy stays the receipt: Brent through $90 on the Monday reopen on an open US-Iran shooting war around the Strait; gasoline long half booked and a runner on (products over crude); NWE diesel crack a record ~$60-66 on Russia's producer-inclusive export ban. Signals scorecard: BULL 4 / BEAR 3 / NEUTRAL 11, two factors past kill lines (P/E 26.7x over 25, Junk Spreads 2.71 under 3.0). VIX 18.4 is sub-20 into the tariff binary and the AI-capex cluster; own cheap optionality over the directional bet. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYShort
by IvanLabrie
2
SPY Is One Point From The Level That Opens The Lean.SPY Is One Point From The Level That Opens The Lean. SPY held 740.44 exactly as flagged and has bounced to 747.16 - one point under the 748 reclaim named on Friday as the trigger. The setup underneath has firmed considerably: conviction is top-quartile, the thesis is a long, structure is bull transitional, and the entry signal is forming. This is the one instrument where a confirmed break carries a real edge, and this is the closest the setup has come to actually triggering. It has not triggered yet. 748 is a reclaim on a close, not a poke. Neutral until it clears. Resistance: 748.00 - the trigger level Key resistance: 751.00, then the 755.66 ceiling Current price: 747.16 Support: 745.00 - first support Key support: 740.44 - the line that held Structural floor: 739.34 - the swept low Two paths from here: 748 clears and the long setup triggers. A confirmed reclaim with conviction already top-quartile completes the shakeout off 740.44 and puts 751 and the 755.66 ceiling back in play. This is the setup we have been waiting on for two weeks - and it needs the close, not the touch. It stalls under 748 and retests the floor. Failing one point short of the trigger, with the ceiling untested and volatility extended, sends it back toward 745 and then 740.44. A second test of that floor would be weaker than the first. SPY did everything asked of it - held the line, bounced, built the setup. It is now one point from the trigger. A confirmed reclaim of 748 is the first genuinely leanable event in two weeks. Short of that, it stays Neutral. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
Research 20.07.2026🌏 Markets: AMEX:SPY +3.74 +0.50%(pre/m) NASDAQ:QQQ +7.55 +1.09%(pre/m) 🆕 Economic News: 10:00 USA – Leading Index (June) 📈 Gap Ups Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:DPZ NYSE:DX NYSE:AMC Other news: NASDAQ:HUT signs $9.8 billion AI data center lease, fully commercializes Texas campus NYSE:ACHR and Anduril unveil autonomous aircraft platform for defense, commercial markets NASDAQ:IREN Signs $2.8bn in New Customer Contracts with Leading AI Developers, Raises 2026 ARR Target to over $4bn NYSE:BABA unveiled a preview version of its flagship Large Language Model (LLM) Qwen3.8 Max. -- The announcement comes shortly after Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter AI model last week that it said could go head-to-head with leading U.S. AI systems. -- According to Bloomberg, those specifications require far more memory capacity than earlier model generations -- Memory stocks gain on new AI models launch momentu: NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:WDC -- Chinese stocks gain on AI momentum: NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:JD Brookfield and CPP Investments to Buy NYSE:LXP for $5.2 Billion in an all-cash deal UBS projects the space economy’s TAM at $1.3TN by 2040 : NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:LUNR NASDAQ:ESLT Awarded Contracts from U.S. Customs and Border Protection Totaling Over $370 Million to Enhance U.S. National Security NYSE:TSM sees long-term AI chip demand as Arizona investment expands to $265 billion 📉 Gap Downs Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:RYAAY NYSE:HDB Other news: NASDAQ:GVH Signs Global Distribution Agreement with DramaBox, Expanding Commercial Distribution to Platform with Over 90 Million Registered Users NYSE:BURL falling after hitting ATH on friday ‼️ Additional Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire in order to find ways to revive the temporary agreement between Iran and the US. -- Mediators are proposing that Iran and the US return to the position that existed before July 9 — ISNA. -- The US has carried out strikes against Iran for the ninth consecutive night. Iran continues to respond by striking US facilities in the region. -- A major statement from the Houthis is expected today. -- #Oil continues to rise: Brent > $90. NASDAQ:SPCX said the next Starship test flight is scheduled for July 23. Oracle’s NYSE:ORCL 5-year CDS, the cost of insuring against default on its debt, has hit a record high. -- Concerns are growing over both the company’s aggressive cash spending and the future profitability of its AI investments, amid the release of Moonshot AI’s new Chinese AI model Kimi K3, which could compete with the largest US AI companies at a lower cost — BBG. -- Last week, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB-, just one notch above junk status. 🔁 Business Combination / SPAC Deal NASDAQ:BXBL – BOXABL Inc. Company develops modular building systems for affordable and fast-to-deploy housing. Its flagship product is the Casita, a 361-square-foot studio unit with kitchen, bathroom and utilities that can unfold on-site in under an hour. BOXABL also offers the smaller Baby Box and is developing stackable / connectable models for larger homes, townhomes and multifamily housing. Trading Date: July 20, 2026 Key points: Company has raised $230M+ from 50,000+ investors to date Core thesis is affordable modular housing, faster construction and factory-built residential units Main risk is execution: scaling manufacturing, permitting, customer adoption and housing-market cyclicality Comparable public companies: SET:SKY , NASDAQ:CVCO , NYSE:BLDR , NYSE:IBP , NYSE:TOL , NYSE:LEN 📋 List of tickers involved: NASDAQ:DPZ NYSE:DX NYSE:AMC NASDAQ:HUT NYSE:ACHR NASDAQ:IREN NYSE:BABA NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:JD NYSE:LXP NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:LUNR NASDAQ:ESLT NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:RYAAY NYSE:HDB NASDAQ:GVH NYSE:BURL NYSE:ORCL NASDAQ:BXBL SET:SKY NASDAQ:CVCO NYSE:BLDR NYSE:IBP NYSE:TOL NYSE:LEN Best regards – hi2morrow team.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hi2morrow_team
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (20-24 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK UA CAPITAL RECAP 19.07 | WEEK 13–17 JUL The execution throughout the week closely followed our published trading plans. Monday and Tuesday, both SPY and QQQ Long Scenario 1 trades from the Weekly Market Outlook reached profitable outcomes. Wednesday's updated Tactical Playbook generated new long opportunities in both SPY and QQQ, with both trades closing profitably. No new trades were taken on Thursday. Friday's Tactical Playbook successfully identified short opportunities in both SPY and QQQ. Both positions generated multiple partial profit targets and continue to hold small runner positions into next week. Ahead of Tuesday's CPI release, we also opened VIX hedge positions on Monday afternoon and closed them Tuesday morning for approximately a 36% gain. In total, seven options trades were executed throughout the week, and all seven finished as winners. It was an exceptional week from both an execution and risk management perspective, resulting in a 100% winning record across every completed options trade. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) Equities Play Throughout the week we also continued building medium-term spot positions in selected companies through the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. To maintain disciplined risk management, new purchases were limited to only one-quarter of our available buying power, bringing our total deployed capital to approximately 50% of our intended allocation. Our plan remains unchanged. We intend to continue gradually building these medium-term positions from attractive technical levels with an investment horizon extending into November and December 2026. The specific names remain exclusive to the private Trading Desk, although our primary focus continues to be concentrated in the technology and semiconductor sectors. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush. The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish. This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops. Given the potential for rapid acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (742) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 739. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (732) This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 729. Long Scenario 3 KEY Level 3 (724) This is the third major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: Daily candle close below 721. Short Scenario Main Supply (752) This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity. Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 757. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: 1-hour candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk-free position. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Every scenario has its own invalidation level. Read them carefully before entering a trade. 6. All charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ETH candles may produce inaccurate confirmation signals. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, Tactical SPY/SPX - QQQ outlooks, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid-week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL