Daily Actionable SPY/SPX Plans (07 JUL)Daily Actionable SPY/SPX Plans
Market Technical Outlook
Our approach today is simple: sell supply, buy demand.
The market remains trapped inside a range. SPY continues to show relative strength versus QQQ, as largecap stocks are outperforming while many technology names remain under pressure.
Because of this relative strength:
Long setups: Prefer SPY
Short setups: Prefer QQQ
The relative strength divergence is very clear, making the CC Model an ideal entry framework.
Risk Index
This algorithm reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
Long term: Risk On (Bullish)
Short term: Slightly Bearish to Neutral
Strategies / Scenarios
Long Scenarios:
Demand Zones: 747 → 743 → 740.5
Long Trigger: After testing a demand zone, wait for a 1 hour bullish candle close back above the level, then look to buy calls.
Invalidation: A 1 hour candle close beyond the nearest swing high or swing low that formed the trigger.
Short Scenarios
Supply Zone: 751.5
Short Trigger: After testing the supply zone, wait for a 1 hour bearish candle close back below the level, then look to buy puts.
Invalidation: A 1 hour candle close beyond the nearest swing high or swing low that formed the trigger.
Profit Taking: Since the market is trading inside a range, take profits regularly for every $1 move. Range bound markets can reverse quickly, so avoid overstaying positions.
Breakout Strategy (Long)
If SPY breaks 752.5 with a strong, high volume 1 hour bullish candle close, long positions become valid.
Targets: 755 → 758 → 760
Invalidation: 1 hour candle close below 750.
Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice. 
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SPY's Breakout Fully Failed. Now It's At The Shelf.SPY's Breakout Fully Failed. Now It's At The Shelf.
SPY's push above 751 has completely unwound - price fell back through the entire breakout band and is at 741, testing the 740.44 shelf that held the whole recovery. The breakout was a trap, exactly the risk flagged yesterday. But right at the lows the surface conviction just spiked bullish, and the months-long bull anchor still has not broken - flagging itself, but standing. This is the moment the four-session standoff actually gets decided: hold 740.44 or lose it.
Resistance: 745.90-748 - the broken band, now resistance
Key resistance: 751.24-752.40 - the failed breakout high
Current price: 741.35
Support: 740.44 - the shelf that has to hold
Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The shelf holds and the anchor wins. 740.44 held the entire recovery, and a fresh bullish surface read just fired at the lows while the 225-bar bull print refuses to break. A bounce off 740.44 that reclaims 745.90 turns the failed breakout into a shakeout and puts the highs back in play. The anchor that would not break for a week is still standing.
The shelf breaks and the anchor gives. Price has already lost the whole breakout band, the bull print is carrying an anti-signal, and range and volatility are both expanded. A loss of 740.44 opens 736.50 then the 732.45 base, and a break of the 225-bar bull print there would be the first real trend change in the tape since the standoff began.
A week of coiling under 751 resolved with a failed breakout and a round-trip to 740.44. That shelf is now the whole story - where the standing bull anchor either proves itself one more time or finally breaks. The bullish flicker at the lows says the buyers are not gone, but the level decides it.
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Study, not financial advice. 
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GDX Elliott Wave Bearish Sequence Intact as it Turns Lower The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) continues to exhibit an incomplete bearish sequence from the March 2, 2026 high, and this structure still favors additional downside. The broader decline retains a clear impulsive and corrective rhythm, which strengthens the case for further weakness before a more durable recovery can emerge. The ideal downside target is measured by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 2 peak. This region, located at $33 to $59, represents a technically significant support zone where buyers may attempt to establish a three‑wave rally at minimum. The near‑term cycle from the June 18 high remains active and continues to unfold as a zigzag structure.
From the June 18 pivot, wave ((i)) ended at $84.28, followed by a modest recovery in wave ((ii)) that ended at $87.21. The ETF then turned lower in wave ((iii)) toward $74.08, and the subsequent wave ((iv)) rally ended at $76.40. The final leg of the sequence, wave ((v)), reached $73.70, which completed wave A at a higher degree. After that low, wave B developed as a double three structure. Up from wave A, wave ((w)) ended at $78.48, while wave ((x)) concluded at $73.89. The final push higher in wave ((y)) ended at $80.47, completing wave B.
GDX has since resumed its decline. As long as the pivot at $90 remains intact, the broader bearish sequence should continue to extend lower. SPY Short Term TASPY Intraday Options Watchlist for 7/8/26
SPY is approaching a decision point after consolidating between descending resistance and rising support, forming a tightening range. With price trading near the apex, Thursday's open should provide the first clue as to which side takes control. The key levels I'm watching are 745.31 (support) and 749.31 (resistance).
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If SPY opens near current levels and breaks above 749.31 with conviction, buyers could build momentum for a move into the mid-$750s. A successful breakout should hold former resistance as support before attempting another leg higher.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If sellers push SPY below 745.31, it would confirm the loss of short-term support and increase the probability of a move back into the low-$740s. A failure to reclaim that level after the breakdown would strengthen the bearish case.
🟡 Range-Bound Scenario
There's also a strong possibility that SPY continues to trade between 745.31 and 749.31, frustrating both bulls and bears before a true directional move develops. This would continue the current consolidation and make patience the better trade until one of the levels is decisively broken.
My Outlook
If I had to make a guess, I actually lean slightly bullish on Thursday's open. The chart has a bearish appearance, which makes me think the market could attempt to trap traders leaning too heavily to the downside before making a move higher. That's simply my read on the current setup—not a prediction.
The Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator is designed to identify Call and Put opportunities, but no indicator is perfect. That's why mapping out key support, resistance, and potential scenarios beforehand is so important—it helps define the risk-to-reward and filter out lower-quality or false signals. While the indicator works best for scalping on the 5-minute timeframe, it can also be paired with solid technical analysis like these levels to improve entries and overall trade management on larger moves.
Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade. 
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