Short
Long 
S&P 500 (SPY) – Technical Outlook | Daily AnalysisThe S&P 500 remains under short-term bearish pressure, with price continuing to establish a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. After failing to sustain rebounds around the 738–740 resistance zone, sellers regained control, pushing the market lower.
The latest candle shows a sharp downside move with an extended lower wick, indicating aggressive selling that briefly drove price toward the 717 area before buyers stepped in to reduce some of the losses. While this long lower shadow suggests demand emerged at lower levels, it does not yet confirm a bullish reversal.
Price is currently trading near 737, remaining below the recent consolidation range and key short-term resistance. As long as the market stays below 733–735, bearish momentum is likely to persist, with support around 717–720 becoming the next area to monitor. A sustained break below this support could expose further downside, while a recovery above 735–738 would improve the short-term outlook and potentially trigger a relief rally.
Overall, the trend remains bearish, although the strong rejection from intraday lows suggests increased volatility and the possibility of short-term consolidation before the next directional move.
Key Levels
Resistance: 738–740
Immediate Support: 733–735
Current Bias: Bearish below 735–738; bullish confirmation requires a sustained move back above resistance.
🔔 Subscribe for daily market insights, swing trade setups, and institutional-style technical analysis.
❤️ Market Wisdom to Remember: ❤️
⭐ Trade what you see, not what you assume
⭐ Follow the trend — it's your only true friend
⭐ The chart tells the real story — trust it
⭐ Emotions & assumptions have no place in trading
⭐ Capital protection comes first — always
💡 Your support matters! Like, comment, and follow to stay updated and motivated.
Cheers & Trade Smart! 🚀
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, research advice, or a buy/sell recommendation. Trade responsibly and manage risk appropriately. SPY's Bull Print Survived a 716 Test. The Hourly Just Flipped ToSPY's Bull Print Survived a 716 Test. The Hourly Just Flipped To
LOW LONG.
Friday's evening update flagged that price had lost 728 and
dropped to 716.58 before recovering, with the IMP loading 3/5
heavy on a SwLo Swept fresh low. Through the rest of the
session and into this morning, the 716 low has held and the
Hourly has flipped to LOW LONG thesis with the bull print now
44 bars old at CQI 55.48. Entry Signal upgraded from FORMING
to LOW LONG thesis active. DISBELIEF state still showing,
which means the system isn't fully behind the recovery yet,
but the structure is now reading as the 716 zone held as a
floor. The Daily has settled to GREEN light Q2 neutral with
the 219-bar bull print at CQI 69.91 still the standing
announcement, and the broken-anchor concern from Friday's
update has reversed - the bull print is back on top of its
reference level.
Resistance: 740.44 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 745.34-751.47 - the gap zone from last week
Current price: 737.23
Support: 736.50-736.87 - the level just reclaimed
Key support: 732.45-733.34 - this week's tested floor
Below that: 716.50-716.58 - last week's low
Two paths from here:
The 716 hold confirms: Vol Elev climbs off the 10th percentile
floor, the bull print starts strengthening past CQI 55, price
clears 740.44 and reopens the gap zone from last week. The
DISBELIEF state clears as conviction catches up to price.
The recovery exhausts: the bull print at CQI 55 is too weak
to hold against the still-active EXT MODE on the SYNTH Gate,
DISBELIEF resolves bearish the way it did Friday, price loses
732.45 again. The bull print born at the cycle low this week
joins the list of failed conviction flips.
A CQI 55 bull print is structurally weak by this ecosystem's
standards. The same instruments are showing CQI 82 on the bear
side. SPY's recovery is real but the conviction behind it is
still half of what NVDA's bear case carries.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Research 29.06.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +8.37 1.15%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +9.32 1.32%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
10:30 USA – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:UPC Announces Strategic Acquisition to Expand Pharmaceutical Patent Portfolio
NASDAQ:DCOY Announces Up to $21 Million Private Placement Financing
FWB:CMCA plans to split into two public companies by spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky
NASDAQ:CHTR engaged in talks with Elon Musk's recently debuted SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX to partner on a consumer mobile phone offering.
NASDAQ:VRDN Announces U.S. FDA Approval and Launch of Lumvoa™ (veligrotug-vvze) for the Treatment of Thyroid Eye Disease
NASDAQ:ASTS : BlueBirds 8-10 Go Live As AST SpaceMobile’s Satellite Army Builds Toward No. 37
NASDAQ:RKLB to Acquire Iridium in Historic Deal, Creating A Fully Vertically Integrated Space Powerhouse Primed for Growth
OpenAI launching GPT-5.6 Sol on Cerebras NASDAQ:CBRS at up to 750 tokens per second
South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix to invest 400 trillion won in a new chip cluster in South Korea. SK Group will spend around 1,000 trillion won on AI data centers. NASDAQ:AMAT NASDAQ:LRCX
NASDAQ:PLTR Launches Engine for Deploying NVIDIA Nemotron Open Models in Sovereign Environments / PLTR and Surf Air Mobility Expand Partnership to Accelerate Commercialization of OperatorOS, OwnerOS, and Enterprise Products
Software Stocks On The Rebound As OpenAI Threat Weakens / NASDAQ:CRWD NYSE:NET NASDAQ:PANW NYSE:NOW NASDAQ:WDAY NASDAQ:ADBE NYSE:CRM XETR:SAP NASDAQ:SHOP NASDAQ:DDOG NYSE:ORCL
NASDAQ:MU has secured 16 long-term contracts with its largest customers totaling over $100 billion, locking in current high price levels for the next 3 to 5 years.
NASDAQ:BIDU after reports that its AI chip unit Kunlunxin is targeting a Hong Kong IPO at a $50B valuation.
NASDAQ:IBRX fits the immuno-oncology theme through Anktiva, its approved therapy that boosts key cancer-fighting immune cells. / NASDAQ:SLS fits the theme through GPS, its WT1-targeting AML immunotherapy, and SLS009, a targeted CDK9 inhibitor in development for AML.
Trump called NYSE:LLY "a great company," was touted for investing $3.5 billion in a manufacturing facility.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:VZ expects record losses of $700 million to $800 million in Q2 2026.
Other news:
NYSE:MLM announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to combine with Lhoist North America, Inc. for $13.5 billion in cash and shares
‼️ Additional
TRUMP: "Iran has requested a meeting. It will take place tomorrow in Doha!"
-- No technical talks with the US are scheduled for this week — Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Tasnim.
-- Trump does not want to resume the war with Iran before the US midterm elections — media reports.
The US Senate is expected to publish the final text of the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill as early as this week.
-- It was previously reported that the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill would be brought before the Senate in July.
-- NYSE:AXP American Express is building a large stablecoin team.
-- NASDAQ:MSTR market value has fallen below the value of the BTC reserves on the company’s balance sheet.
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:UPC NASDAQ:DCOY FWB:CMCA NASDAQ:CHTR NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:VRDN NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:CBRS NASDAQ:AMAT NASDAQ:LRCX NASDAQ:PLTR NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:CRWD NYSE:NET NASDAQ:PANW NYSE:NOW NASDAQ:WDAY NASDAQ:ADBE NYSE:CRM XETR:SAP NASDAQ:SHOP NASDAQ:DDOG NYSE:ORCL NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:IBRX NASDAQ:SLS NYSE:LLY NYSE:VZ NYSE:MLM NYSE:AXP NASDAQ:MSTR
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
Long
Short
Weekly Bias — 29 JuneThe June low around $686 was a sell-side liquidity sweep — price immediately reclaimed it & now we're seeing the opposite, repeated failures above $740-$748 → buy-side liquidity being harvested
Price hasn't made a major lower low, but RSI has rolled over to approximately 46
Momentum is deteriorating faster than price
MACD histogram continues expanding negatively
The signal line remains below zero
Momentum still favors sellers
The decline is occurring on average to slightly declining volume, not panic volume
Suggests profit taking, dealer hedging & systematic selling rather than institutional
liquidation
A close beneath $698 would materially weaken the bullish intermediate-term structure
The largest high-volume nodes remain around
$706
$687
$636
These become magnets if selling accelerates
Resistance
$719-$723 (20d EMA)
$729-$730
$740
$748
Support
$706
$698-$700
$687
$672
SPY is approaching the same inflection point
Current price sits almost directly on the rising 50d EMA
Average has supported every correction since April
If it fails, next support becomes $720 → $710
Momentum is exactly like QQQ, RSI falling & MACD bearish → momentum weakening
IWM isn't not confirming the weakness
Instead it's making new recovery highs, remaining above the 20d EMA & remaining above the 50d EMA
Relative strength has shifted toward cyclicals & small caps
Rotation is constructive for the broader market
If IWM also loses $292, then the market becomes much more concerning
The charts suggest growth is under pressure while cyclicals continue outperforming
Aligns with stable or slightly lower yields, less pressure on duration-sensitive stocks & leadership broadening beyond mega-cap AI
If yields unexpectedly rise sharply this week, QQQ is likely to underperform further while IWM's relative strength could fade
The $700-$706 area on QQQ & $729-$730 on SPY are the key levels from OI concentrations
QQQ has significant dealer interest around the $700-$715 area, which could act as a pin area if realized volatility stays contained
SPY shows notable 2-sided positioning, suggesting increased gamma around the current price & the potential for sharp moves if those levels break
IWM shows dealers have very large put exposure clustered between $280-$290, making that area a likely support level unless selling accelerates significantly
Based on recent realized daily movement
QQQ approximately ±16-20 points
SPY approximately ±12-15 points
IWM approximately ±6-8 points
Given the current technical setup, avoid chasing downside after several bearish sessions
If QQQ tests $697-$706 & shows evidence of stabilization (higher low, bullish reversal candle, or improving intraday breadth), the higher-probability trade would be buy ATM or slightly ITM QQQ calls
10-21 DTE
Initial upside targets $720, then $730, then $740
Thesis invalidation on a daily close below $698, with stronger confirmation if $687 fails
If QQQ rallies back into $720-$723 & is rejected on weakening momentum, that area offers a favorable risk/reward location for short-duration bearish exposure targeting a move back toward $700
The HTF trend still favors bulls, but the daily charts show a meaningful loss of momentum so the next several sessions are likely to determine whether this is merely a healthy correction within the April advance or the beginning of a deeper retracement
Using the AVWAPs, EMAs & the visible structure
Price probes $700 (55%) → briefly breaks to $697 → buyers defend 50d EMA → recover $719 → challenge $730
Immediate reclaim of $719 (30%) → close above $730 → squeeze toward $742 → retest highs
Need to see a strong daily close back above the recent-high AVWAP with improving RSI & MACD
Lose $698 decisively (15%) → $686 → $672 → 100d EMA
Would represent a deeper correction of roughly 10–12% from the high
The anchored VWAPs strengthen the bearish short-term case without invalidating the longer-term bull market.
Constructive again if QQQ reclaims $719 (20d EMA), closes above $730 (high AVWAP) & does so on expanding volume
Would suggest the recent breakdown was a bear trap rather than true distribution
Defensive if QQQ loses the 50d EMA (~$699) on a daily closing basis, the AVWAP from the June low starts acting as resistance instead of support & downside volume expands
Would indicate institutions are no longer defending the post-April uptrend
The most important support cluster (50d EMA + volume node + psychological $700 + nearby sell-side liquidity) — this confluence around $698–$705 is where we should expect the highest probability of a meaningful reaction since if buyers can't defend that area, the correction is likely to extend toward the 100d EMA near $670; conversely, if that level holds & price reclaims the AVWAPs, it would fit the pattern of a healthy correction within the broader uptrend rather than the start of a new bearish cycle 
Long
Long
Long 
Long
Long 
Long 
Long 
Short 
Tops and Bottoms Are Not the Same ProblemMost people trade them with one playbook. The market builds them two different ways.
A bottom is an event. A top is a process. That single difference decides how you should read every signal you have.
Bottoms happen to you
Lows are made in panic. Selling compresses into a few sessions, fear runs hot, and price snaps. The whole thing resolves in days. When sentiment hits a real extreme down there, it lands close to the actual low, often within a session or two. The signal is sharp because the move is sharp.
So you can act with conviction near a low. When price is stretched, sentiment is washed out, and the tape is flushing, that is your window. Start scaling in. The first extreme reading is the cue to begin, and you average from there. You will rarely catch the exact print, and you do not need to.
Tops happen slowly
Highs get built over weeks. Price grinds up, enthusiasm bleeds higher, and supply gets distributed into strength a little at a time. Nothing breaks on any single day. By the time a top is obvious it is already behind you.
That is why a top is hard to call. Sentiment can sit hot for a long stretch while price keeps climbing. An extreme reading up high does not mark a day. The lead time is all over the map. Sometimes the turn comes in a couple of weeks, sometimes months later, sometimes the move just stalls and goes nowhere for a while.
The most you can predict near a top is near-term pressure. Stretched conditions tell you the next stretch of time will likely under-earn. They do not tell you which day it ends.
What that means in practice
At a top, treat a hot reading as a regime flag, not a countdown. Conditions are rich, the easy upside is mostly spent, forward odds are worse. The right response is to tighten stops, trim size, and let price action confirm before you make any large change. You reduce risk in steps. You do not flip short on a feeling.
At a bottom, treat a washed-out reading as an opportunity. Near recent lows it is one of the cleaner setups the market offers. You add into it and you average through the noise.
The asymmetry, in one line: be patient and gradual at tops, decisive and committed at bottoms. Tops are slow, vague, and early. Bottoms are fast, clear, and close. Read them with the same playbook and you will sell too early at the top and freeze at the bottom.
Everyone wants a tool that calls the high. There is no such tool, because the high is a process and your tools measure pressure. Use them for what they do. They keep you honest about risk on the way up and they hand you size on the way down.
Notes from ongoing market-structure research. For study, not advice. Long 
Short 
