Near the recent high—or making a new one? Check the channel.A Donchian Channel is a three-line indicator outlining the price range over a chosen number of bars. Our daily QQQ chart uses 20, so the calculation looks at the latest 20 daily bars.
Use the channel to locate price in its recent range
Upper amber line = highest high of those 20 bars. Lower amber line = lowest low. Gray middle line = (upper + lower) ÷ 2. Together, they locate price within a consistent recent range.
In QQQ’s advance into June, price repeatedly reaches and raises the upper bou
ETF market
Six numbers a strategy report hides, and how to recover themA strategy report usually shows three numbers that matter and hides the six that follow from them. You do not need the code or the trade list to recover them; you need arithmetic and a willingness to be disappointed.
Take a report that reads profit factor 1.80, win rate 45%, 180 trades. Everything below is a consequence of those three.
The payoff it implies. Average win over average loss equals PF x (1 - win rate) / win rate, which is 1.80 x 0.55 / 0.45 = 2.20. The report is claiming that the
Opening: SMH November 20th 530/540/670/680 Iron Condor... for a 3.99 credit.
Comments: ETF IV at >35% (it's at 36.8% currently). Collecting in excess of 1/3rd the width of the widest wing here with short option legs at 25 delta or below. SMH isn't all that liquid, so going with the monthly here. I moved in the call side slightly to structure the setup such that net delta is just about as flat as you can get. (It's currently marking at -.17 delta/3.19 theta.)
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.99 ($399)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 6.01 ($601)
ROC at M
Opening: QQQ Nov 6th 701/711/3 x 795/800 Ratio'd Iron Condor... for a 3.66 credit.
Comments: Back into the Q's in the expiry nearest 45 DTE. Here, adding a contract to the short call side to structure the trade to lean more short from a delta standpoint.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.66 ($366)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 11.34 ($1134)
ROC at Max: 32.3%
ROC at 50% Max: 16.1%
ROC at 10% of the width of the widest wing: 13.2%
Will generally look to take profit at 10% of the widest wing, which is a 15-wide equivalent due the call side being a 3 x 5 wide.
Short on XLF🚨 BANKS AT A KILLER ATH: Opening a Short on XLF Before the Middle East Sets Markets on Fire! 🚨
The US financial sector is experiencing absolute euphoria, breaking one all-time high after another. While retail traders are recklessly buying the tops, assuming banks will grow to the sky, we see an extremely stretched rubber band that is threatening to snap. Combined with the escalating tensions in the Middle East, a perfect storm is forming. We are not waiting for a washout—we are meeting it head-
SPY Is Back Near 779.37 With The Timeframes Split.SPY Is Back Near 779.37 With The Timeframes Split.
SPY is trading near 777.70 premarket, up from Thursday's 773.93 close and about 1.70 under the 779.37 August high. Thursday's low held 770.44, just above the 770.09 key support. The hourly ACE traffic light is yellow in the first quartile on the long side, and SOM structure is an impulse continuation up. The 4H light is green in the first quartile on the short side, and its structure is an impulse continuation down. The two timeframes point opp
Research 09.10.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.36 +0.43%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +6.61 +0.88%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures rise as oil slips and tech rebounds, while telecoms slump on SpaceX's spectrum deal
10:00 USA – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel)
12:00 USA – WASDE Report
13:00 USA – Baker Hughes Rig Count
16:00 USA – Fed Collins Speech
📈 Gap Ups
Other news:
NASDAQ:SPCX rises after SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio, a step toward its Starlink Mobile
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Friday, October 9, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Levels for Friday, October 9, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 48.1
10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Previous: 4.6%
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #ConsumerSentiment #InflationExpectations
Opening: USO October 30th 170/180 Short Call Vertical... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Adding short delta back in on this bounce to flatten net delta in my USO position. Alternatively, a bet that USO stays below 170 (the 52-week high is 163.35).
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.09 ($109)
Max Loss: 8.91 ($891)
ROC at Max: 12.2%
Opening: USO 3 x 130/135/175/185 Iron Condor... for a 4.00 credit.
Comments: Ordinarily, I would do a 2 x 130/135 175/185 or a standalone long delta hedge, but doing a ratio to cut short delta of my USO position instead. Here, the "widest wing" is the 3 x 5 or 15 ... . I'm indicating that this is "long" here, only because the setup's delta is bullish, not because I'm bullish on oil from here.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 4.00 ($400)
Buying Power Effect: 11.00 ($1100)
ROC at Max: 36.4%
ROC at 50% Max: 18.2%
10% of the Widest Wing ROC: 13.63%
Current AI stories that matter for Anthropic’s IPO Three developments are giving investors more to consider ahead of Anthropic’s IPO:
• OpenAI’s annualised revenue is now estimated to be 29% below the $70 billion indicated by figures circulated a month earlier. A run rate estimates annual revenue by extending a recent period of sales across a full year. For Anthropic, the risk is that investors take a closer look at its own revenue assumptions before accepting its IPO valuation.
AI-exposed stocks fell following the report. Oracle fell 5.5%
Top in for QQQ at $748?QQQ looks like it put in a double top up here. I also got a weekly sell signal that fired this week.
On top of that a weekly buy signal in VIX triggered and a weekly sell signal triggered on SPY. The confluence of signals is leading me to believe that we've seen a major top in equities for the time being.
I think rates will likely put pressure on equities over the coming weeks as they're running away.
Let's see if we can get a selloff here and how low we go. $341 would be max risk to the do
Long USO $180-200 possible?USO looks like it's breaking out here of a month long consolidation and I think we could see a large move higher.
As you can see we broke out of a bull flag today, the RSI have fully reset, I think we could potentially see a massive spike higher up to at least the 188 level.
Let's see how it plays out.
Where is the low for bonds? Basis trade blowup?Bonds can't seem to find a bottom, and we're getting to the point here where we can see a capitulation move.
$83 on TLT was a key level to hold and now that we're trading below it, I worry that this could be a catalyst for a large decline in markets.
If we continue down, the support levels on the chart are the next levels to bid. We can potentially break below all time lows if the selling gets bad enough.
Can a further decline in TLT create a larger move down in equities? TBD.
SPY Is Trading Between 770.09 And The August High.SPY Is Trading Between 770.09 And The August High.
SPY is trading near 773.70 premarket, below Wednesday's 777.22 close and just under Wednesday's 773.61 low. Price has now spent three sessions under the 779.37 August high after Tuesday's spike to 781.62 failed to close above it. On the hourly, ACE reads Q4 against a bearish anchor; the 4H light is green with ACE neutral in Q2 and IMP's narrow-range anti-signal active, and the 4H structure has turned bearish in transition. Neutral.
Resistance:
Research 08.10.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY -3.35 -0.43%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -4.53 -0.60%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures slide as oil jumps 5% on record tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Treasury yields keep rising
08:30 USA – Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 USA – Continuing Jobless Claims
10:00 USA – Wholesale Inventories
10:30 USA – EIA Natural Gas Storage
13:00 USA – 30-Year Bond Auction
13:40 USA – Fed Musalem Speech
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:PEP , NAS
$BWET - ETF , Tanker Freight Cycle Structure IdeaBWET (Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF) is not a traditional tanker-stock ETF. It provides exposure to crude-oil tanker freight through futures, primarily VLCC TD3C contracts for Middle East Gulf to China, with additional TD20 Suezmax exposure. The instrument therefore reflects tanker freight rates, vessel availability, route changes and the pricing of future transportation costs rather than the equity value of shipping companies.
That distinction is important when reading the long-term chart.
Th
Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) – Buy Signal AlertXLP is pulling back toward a major Fibonacci support zone after breaking below the 0.618 level.
I'm watching for buyers to step in around the $79.20–$75.76 area before the next move higher develops.
Entry Zone: $79.20–$75.76
Stop Loss: $75.70
🎯 Targets
Take Half: $83.70
Final Target: $93.76
Once price reaches $83.70, move the stop to breakeven and let the rest run toward the final target.
I could see one more push lower before the reversal begins. As long as the support zone holds, I like
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Thursday, October 8, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Levels for Thursday, October 8, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 200K | Previous: 197K
4:30 AM | Fed Speaker: FOMC Member Waller Speaks
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #UnemploymentClaims #FOMC
Opened: USO Nov 13th -165C/175C Short Call Vertical... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: Late post. I filled this on 10/2 for a 1.27 credit as a short delta hedge against my current USO position, but could also function as a bearish trade if your assumption is that WTI goes down from here or, alternatively, it doesn't blow through the 165 handle by expiry.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.27 ($127)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 8.73 ($873)
ROC at Max: 14.5%
ROC at 50% Max: 7.3%
Ananke Market Close Teaser — Wed Oct 07
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NVDA
Wall Street gave back Tuesday's records into the close: the S&P 500 finished down 0.22% at 7,801 and the Nasdaq-100 off 0.21% at 31,160. The culprit was rates — the 10-year Treasury hit 5.35%, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year touched a 24-year high of 5.724% ahead of this afternoon's $39B auction. The 2 PM ET FOMC minutes cemented the hawkish tone: all 19 officials backed September's 25bp hike and most see another hike likely by year end, with inflat























