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How To Tell If A Sector Is Actually StrongTech is strong is something people say. Here's how you check it instead. A sector being up means nothing on its own. On a good day, almost everything is up. What you want to know is whether it's outrunning the market. Relative strength, plainly Relative strength (RS) is just this: how a stock or sector performed compared to the market over the same stretch of time. If the S&P is up 3% over sixty days and a sector is up 8%, that sector has real relative strength. If it's up 1%, it's a laggard wearing a green candle. How to check it yourself Pick a lookback — sixty days is a reasonable swing-trading window. Measure the sector ETF's percent change over that window. Measure SPY's percent change over the same window. Subtract. Positive means it's leading. Negative means it's following. Do that for all eleven sector ETFs and sort them. The top of that list is where the money is going. Why it's worth the trouble Stocks move with their group more often than not. Buying a decent setup in a leading sector and buying the same setup in a lagging one are two different trades. Picking the pond before you pick the fish is most of the work. The honest caveat Strength is backward-looking. A sector that led for sixty days can hand the baton over tomorrow. That's why you check where the money is going, not where it went once, and why the check gets repeated — not memorized. Educational only — not financial advice.
AMEX:XLKEducation
by BlueBeck
Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC) BearishThe EMXC closed this week at $91.89 currently we have blown past our 1.68 Fibonacci retracement of $94.21 and have landed on or 20 week moving average (MA) . Since the war on Iran is influencing the price of oil this week we are looking at testing the 20 week moving average closing next week down possibly 4%. If by chance we break down past the 4% landing at our next down leg of our retracement we may be looking at a testing the 50 day moving average closing down close to 10%. If by luck things turn to the brighter side we could bounce back off the 20 day MA and gain 4% back to our 1.68 retracement but this is a long shot for the near term outlook. My thoughts for the upcoming week are BEARISH. project a 4% loss for the week closing on the 31st.
NASDAQ:EMXCShort
by chris_kehl_insightbb_com
Emerging Markets ex US: Bearish for upcoming week 27 - 31 JulyThe AWCX closed this week at $74.10 currently we are sitting at a long time Fibonacci retracement. Since the war on Iran is influencing the price of oil this week we are looking at testing the 20 week moving average closing next week down another 1%. If by chance we break down past the 20 day moving average we are possibly looking at a 7% decline in the short term. If by luck things turn to the brighter side we could bounce back off the 20 day MA and gain 4%, but this is a long shot for the near term outlook. My thoughts for the upcoming week are BEARISH . project a 1% loss for the week closing on the 31st.
NASDAQ:ACWXShort
by chris_kehl_insightbb_com
SPY Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 738.85 Bias -Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 746.41 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
SPY Interval Delta-Hedged Iron Condor (Update)This is a continuation of an iron condor post where I'm basically delta hedging at intervals additively, subtractively, or via rolling. (See Post Below). An additive delta hedge adds a spread to reduce net delta in one direction or the other. If the net position is skewing short, a short put spread is added; long, a short call spread. A subtractive delta hedge takes profit on a spread to reduce delta in the position. If the net position is skewing short, I look to close a short call spread (assuming it can be done for 50% max) or greater; long, I look to close a short put spread (again, assuming it can be done at 50% max or greater). I can also do an adjustment "non-additively" by just rolling in the untested side toward current price if I don't want to add units and the DTE is of sufficient duration. I generally don't roll in a side unless there are greater than 28 DTE left, particularly in this market, which has been somewhat whippy. I also look at whether I can profitably mix and match put spread with call spread to reduce units, looking to close out for around a 1.40 ($140) profit, since the vast majority of the double double iron condors I put on that are ten wide on the put side with the short put leg at the 25 delta and the 2 x 5 wide with the short call leg at the -13 delta pay in the neighborhood of 2.80 ($280) per contract. Generally, I only want to look at doing adjustments once a week, and only want to consider doing one additively if the net delta of the position is >+/- 5 delta, since a 45 DTE 10-wide spread on the put side with the short leg at the 25 delta only gives you about that amount, as does a 2 x 5 wide on the call side, with the short call legs camped out at the -13. Currently, the net position is kind of spaghetti-works of spreads in the July 31st, August 7th, and August 21st contracts with 23.70 total credits collected on a capital requirement of 50.00, and a delta/theta of -13.23/28.80. If I get time, I'll post all the individual spreads that are currently in the hopper ... .
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
AALG LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 83% · avg RR 4.2)█ SETUP NASDAQ:AALG · 1D · long only. (Context: Leverage Shares 2x Long AAL Daily ETF — 200% daily exposure to American Airlines Group; path-dependent vs holding AAL outright.) ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (AALG 1D): Win rate 83% · profit factor 8.9 · max drawdown 9% Avg winning trade +29.3% · avg losing trade −7.0% Typical hold ~17×1D bars on winners — 2x airline mean-reversion grid on the daily Averaging template · 41-trade sample ═ █ WHY NOW Fresh 1D ALMA long on the 21 Jul 13:30 UTC bar ~ $14.50 — first lot on this Averaging template (1 of 4). Bar-close ENTRY after the mid-Jul wash under ~$16 — not a discretionary “buy American Airlines” call and not a leveraged day-trade. Hard stop −10% from fill ~ $13.05 . Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower bars qualify. ═ █ MACRO Sector: AALG = daily 2x AAL beta — US airline demand, unit revenue, fuel/cost gap vs peers, and leisure/corporate traffic drive the underlying more than broad index beta. Leverage and daily reset mean multi-day holds diverge from 2× spot AAL. Tape (19–21 Jul): American Airlines CEO outlined a plan to close a >$3B profit gap (19 Jul), while peer airline headlines stayed on fuel costs and capacity fights (JetBlue/Spirit slots, Ryanair industry-shakeout talk). Execution is 1D ALMA Averaging on the fill bar — not an AAL earnings or CEO-vision forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - Tester skew: 83% WR · PF 8.9 · avg win +29.3% vs avg loss −7.0% — fat right tail vs bounded ALMA stop path - Fresh first-lot ENTRY on the 21 Jul daily close ~$14.50 after the mid-Jul slide from the mid-$15s — process re-arm, not revenge size - ALMA — daily just flipped LONG at the band: 1D L:1 vs LAvg:4.3 — first bar above ALMA / SuperTrend pocket (~14.14–14.17) — touch-quality long, not a late chase deep above the band - ALMA — slow clocks still stretched SHORT below: 3D S:4 vs SAvg:3.9 (OVERHEAT-S) · 1W S:3 vs SAvg:3.1 — structure clocks still below the band while the daily template arms — classic HTF discount fuel for an Averaging long - EMA — weekly/3D still Below: 3D Cur S:4 · 1W Cur S:3 with weekly Dev still large in magnitude — slow EMA side not reclaimed; room for mean-revert if daily holds the flip - SMC — 1D: FVG Enter Bull tagged ~ $14.17 on the 20 Jul daily bar — demand inefficiency sits just under the fill Negative factors - EMA — LTF already Above: 15m Cur L:6 · 1H Cur L:2 · 4H Cur L:3 · 1D Cur L:1 — young above-session on the execution clock; not a deep below-EMA discount entry - SMC mixed at ~$14.17: same window also printed FVG New Bear — bull FVG is not a clean one-way shelf - 2x daily leveraged ETF — overnight gaps and chop in AAL can erase a “correct” multi-day AAL view via compounding / path dependency even if the underlying drifts the right way - First lot only (1 of 4) — no averaged cushion yet if the daily bar fails and lower adds qualify or the −10% path prints first - Snapshot board had no VWAP Touch row for AALG — no Active Support/Resistance levels to lean on in this idea Takeaway: the 1D ALMA strategy and strong tester skew support a disciplined first lot after the mid-Jul wash, with 3D/1W still below-band and a bull FVG near ~$14.17, but LTF OVERHEAT-L, a young daily above-session, mixed FVG, and 2x path risk frame a repair grind — not a clean trend reclaim; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: follow 1D ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying bars while the ~$14.1–14.5 bull-FVG / ALMA pocket cushions · mean-revert toward the mid-$15s prior shelf if AAL tape stabilizes without a fresh gap through the stop. Bear case: lose the ~$14.17 bull FVG · 15m/1H giveback extends · AAL headline gap drives AALG through −10% toward ~$13.05 from this fill · template posts the stop and waits for the next bar-close arm. Chart: NASDAQ:AALG 1D — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.
NASDAQ:AALGLong
by Goldfinch_song
Bubble Form Your Shell, The Paradox, Learn From Our Past & Elon Our Universe Expands Like a Bubble, Solidifying Mass Along the Way. Why Shouldn't a Financial Bubble Be Allowed to Do the Same? Popping a bubble is interfering with someone's business plan. Of course it will fail after that. Then comes the "I told you so" paradox: a purely self-creating feedback loop that feeds fear, causes the very thing people predicted, and then provides false confirmation that validates the bias further. The prophecy doesn't prove itself. It creates itself. This is why borrowing is so expensive. Because every idea has to survive a renewal cycle of reassessment as it travels an evolutionary path. The origin of any plan may not be as valid as the rethink. The pivot. The new direction. That's not failure, that's iteration. That's how every successful venture in human history has worked. But instead of allowing that evolution, we fold. "This happened, therefore it's over." How about: we set out to do this, we found this instead, we reassessed, here's the new narrative. Don't mistake iteration for taking the piss. Dive into the mechanics. Examine the timeline. Map each trajectory. Adjust. That's what intelligent capital does. Panic is the enemy. Not risk. Not even mistakes. Bring enough wealth into the system to allow mistakes to be made, survived, and learned from. Sanction repeated identical failures if necessary. But do not penalise the evolutionary process itself. Do not pop the forming bubble just because it looks unfamiliar. Otherwise the initial investment, the original belief, the first deployment of capital, becomes nothing more than another entry in the Economic Death Wedge. We lost a decade last time. Ten years of compounding, innovation, livelihoods, and progress. Because someone panicked. Because someone said "I told you so." Because we confused iteration with failure and pulled the plug on ourselves. Never again. The bubble is the mechanism. Let it solidify. Let it evolve. Let it do what the universe does: expand, create mass, and keep going. I dare us to break the cycle. Cube Cosmos
AMEX:SPY
by shaun_85_dunn
Research 24.07.2026🌏 Markets: AMEX:SPY +2.54 0.34%(pre/m) NASDAQ:QQQ +2.06 0.30%(pre/m) 🆕 Economic News: THE US WILL IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS OF 10% TO 12.5% ON 60 COUNTRIES STARTING FRIDAY. 08:00 USA – Building Permits 10:00 USA – New Home Sales 📈 Gap Ups Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:AMKR NYSE:THC NYSE:WKC NYSE:EW GPW:ASB XETR:SAP NYSE:SLB NYSE:DLR NYSE:NEM NYSE:CNI NYSE:SXT Other news: NASDAQ:NKTR on Start of Phase III Program on Rezpeg for Atopic Dermatitis NASDAQ:ESLT Wins More Than $370 Million in CBP Contracts Through 2029 NYSE:ORCL wins $7 billion Pentagon software contract NASDAQ:ADVB surging after the company terminated a purchase agreement giving it the right to issue and sell up to $25 million worth of stock to Helena Global Investment Opportunities I. 📉 Gap Downs Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:MXL NASDAQ:SMMT NASDAQ:CHTR NYSE:HIG NYSE:DECK NYSE:AXP NYSE:NEE NYSE:VZ Other news: NASDAQ:ZVRA Provides Update on Regulatory Submission for Arimoclomol for the Treatment of Niemann-Pick Disease Type C (NPC) in the European Union NASDAQ:RADX Announces Concurrent US$4.1 Million Registered Direct Offering NASDAQ:WSE : US regulator rejects banking licence application ‼️ Additional THE US WILL IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS OF 10% TO 12.5% ON 60 COUNTRIES STARTING FRIDAY. -- The new measures are being justified as part of efforts to combat forced labor. A 10% tariff will be imposed on countries that have committed to adopting and enforcing a ban on imports of goods produced using forced labor. Other countries will face a 12.5% tariff. -- The new tariffs will effectively replace the temporary global duties on US imports that took effect on February 24 for a period of 150 days. -- In total, the measures will affect 99.4% of US imports and will apply to Washington’s largest trading partners — The Hill. Trump: Xi Jinping is coming on September 24. The Magnificent Seven stocks saw their sharpest one-day selloff since April 2025 yesterday. -- Hedge funds and asset managers are actively selling US Big Tech stocks, while short positions in Nasdaq futures are rising rapidly, according to EPFR data. 🏢 IPO NASDAQ:SCTX – Scribe Therapeutics, Inc. Company develops CRISPR-based therapies for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Lead program, STX-1150, is designed to lower LDL cholesterol by targeting PCSK9 without permanently changing DNA. The company also has programs for elevated Lp(a) and severe triglycerides. Core thesis is one-time or long-lasting genetic medicine for major heart disease risk factors. Price: $15.00 Shares: 8.6M Raised: $128.7M Concurrent Private Placement: $7.5M Market Cap: ~$256.2M LTM: Revenue: $36.3M Net Income: -$35.7M Key point: Lead program is in first-in-human Phase 1 trial, with initial data expected in H1 2027. Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:CRSP , NASDAQ:NTLA , NASDAQ:BEAM , AQUISEU:VERV , NASDAQ:EDIT , NASDAQ:PRME 📋 List of tickers involved: NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:AMKR NYSE:THC NYSE:WKC NYSE:EW GPW:ASB XETR:SAP NYSE:SLB NYSE:DLR NYSE:NEM NYSE:CNI NYSE:SXT NASDAQ:NKTR NASDAQ:ESLT NYSE:ORCL NASDAQ:ADVB NASDAQ:MXL NASDAQ:SMMT NASDAQ:CHTR NYSE:HIG NYSE:DECK NYSE:AXP NYSE:NEE NYSE:VZ NASDAQ:ZVRA NASDAQ:RADX NASDAQ:WSE NASDAQ:SCTX NASDAQ:CRSP NASDAQ:NTLA NASDAQ:BEAM AQUISEU:VERV NASDAQ:EDIT NASDAQ:PRME Best regards – hi2morrow team.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hi2morrow_team
SPY Tests Its 20/50-Day Cluster as the Broader Uptrend HoldsThe broad trend is still constructive, but the short-term chart is testing whether support can absorb a loss of the fast moving-average cluster. Introduction AMEX:SPY, the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, is examined here on the 1D chart as of 24 July 2026, before the regular US session. This is a neutral technical study for education, Bar Replay and paper-testing. The orange pre-market quote was still moving, so the analysis treats only the visible regular-session daily candle as completed. Current market structure Over the one-year view, SPY advanced through a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, interrupted by a sharp March–April correction. The rebound from that spring low recovered the prior consolidation and later reached new highs around the mid-750s. That keeps the broad daily structure upward. Near term, however, price is no longer advancing cleanly. The June–July action is better described as a range between roughly 726–735 support and 748–755 resistance. Repeated reactions inside this band, followed by the latest bearish candle, make the short-term evidence mixed rather than strongly directional. Important support and resistance The nearest support zone is 726–735. It contains several recent lows, closes, and the lower edge of the current consolidation. It is also where buyers previously responded after a sharp intraday selloff. A daily close beneath the zone would be more informative than a brief intraday wick. Resistance is 748–755. Recent highs and failed pushes cluster there, and price has repeatedly struggled to hold above the upper edge. Because those reactions span several sessions, treating resistance as a zone is more realistic than using one exact price. Moving-average and volume evidence At the latest completed candle, SPY closed 738.18, below the 20-day SMA at 745.92 and the 50-day SMA at 745.05, but above the rising 200-day SMA at 698.21. The 20- and 50-day averages are tightly grouped near 745, so they act as a nearby decision area. This conflicts with the broader uptrend: long-term structure is intact, while short-term momentum has weakened. Volume on the latest candle was 55.44 million shares. That is above several nearby sessions in the mid-30 to mid-40 million range, but below recent 60–70 million sessions and well below the heaviest 80-plus million readings visible in the range. The decline therefore received some participation, but not exceptional volume confirmation. Key candle behaviour The latest completed daily candle opened 739.37, traded up to 742.56, fell to 735.21 and closed at 738.18. It stayed below the nearby moving-average cluster and finished in the lower half of its range. Read as an observation, that is a failed short-term recovery attempt; as an interpretation, it keeps pressure on support. The separate pre-market quote was still open and is not treated as confirmation. Bullish conditional scenario A daily close back above 745–748 would reclaim the 20/50-day cluster. Follow-through above 755, ideally on volume clearly stronger than the recent mid-range, would strengthen the higher-high structure. Holding 726–735 on pullbacks would preserve the consolidation as a potential base rather than a breakdown. Bearish conditional scenario Repeated rejection below 745–748 would keep the fast averages acting as overhead resistance. A completed daily close below 726, especially with volume expanding beyond the recent range, would weaken the current consolidation. Failure to recover after such a break would expose the next visible area around 710–716, while the rising 200-day average near 698 remains the broader reference. What would invalidate the analysis This analysis would need to be revised if SPY closes decisively outside 726–755 and then holds there, because the range framework would no longer describe the chart. A confirmed break above 755 would invalidate the short-term weakening case. A sustained break below 726, followed by lower highs and lower lows, would invalidate the present assumption that the broad uptrend is merely consolidating. Unexpected volatility or a large gap could also make these zones less useful. How to test the idea with Bar Replay Start before the March–April correction and hide future candles. Mark 726–735 and 748–755 without looking ahead. Advance one daily candle at a time and record closes relative to the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages. Compare breakout and rejection volume with the preceding ten sessions. Paper-test both conditional scenarios and note which confirmations reduced false signals. Educational disclaimer Educational disclaimer: This Idea is a historical chart observation, not personalized investment advice or a promise of results. Markets can gap, trend or reverse without confirmation. Use Bar Replay or paper trading, wait for completed candles, and make independent decisions appropriate to your own circumstances.
AMEX:SPY
by Trade-Technique
SPY Broke The Floor - And Is Retesting It From Below.SPY Broke The Floor - And Is Retesting It From Below. Yesterday SPY lost 740.44 and dropped to 735, breaking the range down. Overnight it climbed right back to the underside of 740.44 and is trading 740.55 - a textbook retest of a broken level from below. This is the tell. A broken floor that gets reclaimed becomes a bear trap; a broken floor that rejects becomes resistance and confirms the breakdown. The hourly has an NR7 active and conviction is only mid-range, so the retest has not resolved. The one name where a break carries an edge is sitting right on the level that decides whether yesterday's break was real. Neutral. Resistance: 740.44 - the broken floor, now being retested from below Key resistance: 746.14 - first shelf above Current price: 740.55 Support: 736.87 - first support below Key support: 735.21 - yesterday's low Structural floor: 731.04 - the deeper shelf Two paths from here: It reclaims 740.44 and the breakdown fails. If SPY closes back above 740.44 and holds, yesterday's break was a bear trap and price snaps back into the range toward 746. A failed breakdown is one of the more powerful reversals, and on the leanable name a confirmed reclaim would set up the long that never triggered. It rejects 740.44 and continues down. If the retest fails and 735 goes, the breakdown is confirmed and the move opens 731 and below. That keeps the leanable bias on the short side, where yesterday's break pointed. SPY broke the floor and is now knocking on it from below. Reclaim it and yesterday was a trap; reject it and the breakdown is confirmed. The retest of 740.44 is the whole story this morning. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
1
QQQ JUL 2026QQQ is testing the 690 support zone after rejecting from the 745 institutional distribution area, where approximately $15B in selling was identified. The 690–675 range is the key absorption zone. Holding this area keeps the broader bullish structure intact, but buyers must reclaim 705–710 to confirm renewed momentum. Bullish targets: 705–710 720–725 745 780 after a confirmed breakout above 745 Bearish targets: 675 630 institutional distribution 600–590 open gap if 630 fails 555–535 on a deeper correction Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above 675. A daily close below 675 would shift control toward sellers and expose 630.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TWMMPRO
SPY Without The Crash Box: Where We Should Be Today SPY Without The Crash Box: Where We Should Be Today Today SPY sits at $740. Without the crash box, we'd be at $2,988. That's not a fantasy projection. It's the natural compounding trajectory of a market that was never interrupted by collective panic. The belief channel, drawn from proven historical growth, puts our ceiling nearly 4x higher than where we actually are. I can't even fit where we should be on this screen. Let that sink in. The math of fear: Every crash box created a debt spiral that took longer to recover from than the bubble took to form. The 2008 crash wiped 57% in 18 months. The recovery took 5.5 years just to get back to zero. That's not a correction, that's a generation of compounding deleted. Then COVID did it again. Each time, the market clawed back eventually, because growth is inevitable. But it clawed back to where it already should have been years earlier, not to where it would have been without the interruption. The purple fan on this chart shows the compounding divergence. The longer we allow crash boxes to form, the wider the gap gets. It's exponential. We're not falling slightly behind. We're falling catastrophically behind. What this actually cost: Look at the wedge list. Economic Waste. Brutal Interest. Hello Benefits Goodbye Jobs. Kiss Retirement Goodbye. Can't Pay the Bills. Struggling Business. Every one of those wedges is a real consequence lived by real people because the market chose fear over investigation. I'll make this personal. I'm a Chartered construction professional (MCIOB) with innovative solutions to complex problems, including energy infrastructure ideas that would have had me collaborating with people like Elon Musk by now. Instead, my construction business collapsed because fear-driven interest rate policy made it impossible for local authorities to pay SME contractors on time. I'm now fighting insolvency courts and chasing redundancy payments instead of building the future. My ideas didn't fail. The economy failed my ideas. I should be innovating. Instead I'm fighting for justice because this system doesn't support good businesses in the SME sector. It punishes them for existing during a crash box. This actually makes me sad and angry. Not for myself. For all of us. For every business that closed, every retirement that evaporated, every innovation that got shelved, every person who was told "the market conditions aren't right" when the only thing that wasn't right was our collective psychology. $2,988. That's where we'd be today if we'd chosen belief over fear. Standards over panic. Investigation over contempt. Governance over chaos. We're $2,248 per share behind where we should be. Multiply that across every pension fund, every retirement account, every small investor who was told the market always recovers. It does recover. But it recovers to where it should have been a decade ago, never to where it should be now. The economy will grow because it must. Our survival in a growing population demands it. The only question is whether we keep paying the price for fear or whether we finally break the cycle. I dare us to sort this.
AMEX:SPY
by shaun_85_dunn
The Breakout That Couldn’t CloseA Simple Five-Point Framework for Studying Failed Breakouts Not every move above resistance becomes a successful breakout. Sometimes, price trades above an important level during the session but fails to hold it and closes back below. This may indicate that buyers were unable to maintain control. However, one failed candle is not enough. We need a consistent method to separate meaningful rejection from ordinary market noise. 𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗙𝗬𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗘𝗧𝗨𝗣 First, mark the highest price reached during the previous 20 completed daily candles. A failed-breakout candidate appears when: • Today’s high moves above the previous 20-day high. • Today’s close finishes back below that level. Do not include the current candle when calculating the previous 20-day high. Always wait for the daily candle to close before evaluating the setup. 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗜𝗩𝗘-𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗖𝗞 Give the setup one point for each condition. 𝟭. 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 The candle closes in the lower half of its daily range. This suggests that sellers gained control before the session ended. 𝟮. 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗨𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗶𝗰𝗸 The upper wick is at least one-third of the candle’s total range. It shows that price reached higher levels but could not remain there. 𝟯. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲 The day’s volume is at least 1.5 times the average volume of the previous 20 sessions. Higher volume makes the rejection more meaningful because more market participation was involved. 𝟰. 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗦𝗣𝗬 The stock’s 20-day return is lower than SPY’s return over the same period. A stock already underperforming the broader market may have less support behind its breakout attempt. 𝟱. 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗘𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 SPY is trading below its 50-day moving average. A failed breakout may carry more weight when the overall market environment is weak. 𝗛𝗢𝗪 𝗧𝗢 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗖𝗢𝗥𝗘 🔴 0–1 points: Weak evidence. It may simply be market noise. 🟡 2–3 points: Mixed evidence. Wait for more information. 🟢 4–5 points: Strong rejection candidate. Observe the next completed daily candle. The score is not a prediction or an automatic trade signal. Its purpose is to organize the available evidence consistently. 𝗔𝗣𝗣𝗟𝗬𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗞 𝗢𝗡 𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪 1. Open the stock’s chart. 2. Select the 1D timeframe and Candles chart type. 3. Add the Volume indicator. 4. Add a 50-period Simple Moving Average. 5. Add SPY through “Compare or Add Symbol.” 6. Examine the previous 20 completed daily candles. 7. Mark their highest high with a horizontal line. 8. Wait for the current daily candle to close. 9. Check the five conditions and record the score. 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗟𝗔𝗕𝗘𝗟𝗦 🔵 Blue line: Previous 20-day high 🔴 Red marker: Failed-breakout candidate ⚠️ Yellow marker: Unresolved outcome ✅ Green marker: Confirmed outcome 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗛𝗔𝗣𝗣𝗘𝗡𝗦 𝗢𝗡 𝗗𝗔𝗬 𝟭? 🔴 𝗥𝗘𝗝𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗠𝗘𝗗 The rejection is confirmed when Day 1: • Fails to close back above the breakout level. • Closes below the low of the failed-breakout candle. Both conditions should be satisfied before classifying the setup as a confirmed rejection. 🟢 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗢𝗨𝗧 𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗗 The breakout is reclaimed when Day 1: • Closes back above the breakout level. • Closes in the upper half of its daily range. A reclaim should be recorded as a separate setup instead of being treated as a confirmed failed breakout. ⚠️ 𝗨𝗡𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗢𝗟𝗩𝗘𝗗 If neither classification is satisfied, mark the setup as unresolved. Do not force every chart into a bullish or bearish conclusion. Sometimes the correct decision is to wait for more information. 𝗧𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗞 𝗪𝗜𝗧𝗛 𝗕𝗔𝗥 𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 Before drawing conclusions, test the framework on historical data. 1. Open TradingView’s Bar Replay. 2. Select an earlier date. 3. Move forward one daily candle at a time. 4. Keep future candles hidden. 5. Record the Day 0 score. 6. Record the Day 1 classification. 7. Measure the return after one, three and five sessions. 8. Repeat the process for at least 50 historical examples. 𝗦𝗜𝗠𝗣𝗟𝗘 𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗥𝗗 𝗙𝗢𝗥𝗠𝗔𝗧 Date: May 10 Symbol: XYZ Five-Point Score: 4 Day 1 Result: Rejection Confirmed Day 3 Return: −2.1% Day 5 Return: −3.4% 𝗔𝗩𝗢𝗜𝗗 𝗦𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗕𝗜𝗔𝗦 Do not select only famous or obvious failed breakouts. Use a fixed list of stocks and a fixed historical period. Record every setup that meets the original definition, including weak and unresolved examples. The framework becomes interesting only if high-scoring setups produce consistently different results from low-scoring setups. 𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗟 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 Mark the level → Wait for the close → Calculate the score → Classify Day 1 → Record the results A useful market framework should not depend on one attractive chart. It should use clear definitions, repeatable rules and enough historical observations to show whether the idea deserves further research. 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗥 This material is provided for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice or a guaranteed trading strategy. Test the framework with Bar Replay or paper trading before considering any real-money decision.
AMEX:SPY
by Trade-Technique
2
QQQ: Diamond formation in play; 8% move down next?The QQQ might just have confirms the diamond formation which is sending major warning signals : QQQ recently broke below the diamond formation towards 693$ , went back up to retest 708$ and now is back down. This is sending a signal : confirmation of the diamond pattern and a potential move lower. Looking at possible targets by taking the high of the diamond pattern to the low , this takes us to the 636$ , an 8% move down. This level happens to coincide with the 50% and 618% of the entire move that happened since late march. Is this the start of the big AI bubble burst or is this just a minor retracement before reaching new highs? Let me know what you guys think below Hope you liked today’s analysis , make sure to follow for more.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Givtrade_Group
3
The Psychology Behind the Crash Box: Fear Creates the GeometryThis is the 2003-2013 cycle mapped through the emotional lens of the average market participant. Every crash box has a psychological fingerprint. This is what it looks like. The sequence: The market moves along untouched. Confidence is high. Nobody questions it. Then innovation arrives (early internet, smartphones, emerging tech) and a bubble forms. Participants reap the benefits. But doubt creeps in: "I'm in old tech." "What's real and what's hype?" Saturation sets in. Nobody knows what to invest in anymore. Then the break. Professional money separates from the herd. Pros limit losses, manage risk, even profit on the way down. The general population withdraws entirely through fear of the unknown. "We were told it was safe. Year on year increases. What happened?" The Eye Opening Wedge forms at the bottom. This is where the crash box is born. Smart money re-enters while retail is frozen. The divergence between those two groups is the crash box geometry. The angle of recovery is set by how quickly confidence returns. The critical insight: Crash box angles change with increased population participation and accelerating innovation cycles. Each crash is steeper but shorter. The geometry compresses because the world moves faster. This intersects directly with the Cube Cosmos Published Crash Box Idea on the current SPY setup. But stay tuned. In the next part, I ask the question nobody else does: what if this doesn't need to happen again? What if the crash box is not a market law, but a failure of collective psychology? What did this actually cost us, and what would the timeline look like had we chosen differently? The alternative version of events follows. I dare us to break the cycle, back then even the smart money needed to relearn strategy and widen their fields of view. They entered again because the knew one thing. The economy will grow, because it must!! Our very survival in a growing population depends on it. Personally, i want us to catch up with where we should be by now. If we were not so distracted cleaning up the mess fear and doubt, even contempt prior to investigation presents, where do you think the SPY value would be sitting at today? Psychology birthed this cycle, Psychology can change its destiny!!!
AMEX:SPY
by shaun_85_dunn
1
Crash Box Continued By Cube CosmosTracking the Crash Box from birth to present. The ascending wedge that formed between 2009-2019 marked the beginning of the tech and AI bubble. This is where the crash box geometry was born. From the post-GFC recovery low, a wedge expansion opened up as new money flooded into emerging tech: cloud, mobile, early machine learning. The market transitioned from cautious recovery into structural overconfidence. Notice how the crash box angles aren't arbitrary. They steepen proportionally with population growth, market participation, and innovation waves. The lower boundary (red fan) tracks the floor of each correction. The upper boundary (cyan channel) tracks the ceiling of each euphoric push. As more capital enters the system, the geometry compresses: steeper rallies, sharper corrections, faster recoveries. The wedge annotated here shows the inflection point where the secular trend shifted from linear growth into exponential acceleration. That's the birth of the current cycle. Everything since has been operating inside this expanding geometry. What's critical: price is now pressing against the $480 horizontal (the orange secular level) from above on the channel projection. This level acted as theoretical resistance for over a decade. It's now support. If a crash box activates and price revisits this zone, it represents a full reversion to the pre-acceleration trend. Follow the Cube Cosmos Published Crash Box Idea for where this geometry projects next.
AMEX:SPY
by shaun_85_dunn
Time cycle theory on SPY by CUBE CosmosI've mapped time-cycle verticals across every major turning point since 2017. The intervals are consistent. Each crash was preceded by a "false bull" phase where price accelerated above the median line, sentiment peaked, and late buyers committed at the worst possible moment. What I'm seeing now: Price is pressing against the upper channel boundary at ~738. Brent crude just broke $100, 10Y yield at 4.70%, negative gamma regime confirmed, mega-cap earnings disappointing. The market has entered the same compression zone that preceded the 2020 and 2022 crash boxes. The thesis: The time cycle projects one more euphoric push higher before the next crash box activates. This is the distribution phase. The rally from here is not opportunity, it's the final rotation from smart money to retail. When the next vertical hits, the geometry repeats. Invalidation: Sustained breakout above the upper cyan channel on expanding volume and breadth. If that holds for 3+ weekly closes, the cycle has broken. This is Part 1. Follow for the crash box geometry and projected levels in Part 2.
AMEX:SPY
by shaun_85_dunn
3
The SPX confirmed the break down, but the QQQ hasn't yet!In this video I cover with my subscribers the SPX chart we have been studying and per our rules the SPX finally confirmed the break down but what's interesting is that the QQQ's have not yet confirmed the break down of the wedge pattern. Does it confirm tomorrow or these upcoming days? That is what I'm currently watching our for. There is evidence that the QQQ's may have one more move up based on other charts we have been looking at such as NVDA that has an inverse head and shoulders, mind you it has not triggered yet but the pattern is there and could be giving us bread crumbs of just one more move up before the next leg lower and have a bigger correction soon in the markets. A lot of semis have been beaten down and have not yet hade a big enough bounce and are also showing signs of one more bounce for then to petter out and go lower. If you liked the video and are interested for more content like this consider subscribing for trade Ideas and I also go over trades that I take on and study. leave a comment and boost, what are your thoughts?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JuvenalGomez
1