Page 4 | Ideas and Forecasts on ETFs — TradingView

ETF market

SOXX is in a downtrend The major trendline is broken, but the price is testing 200 day SMA right now and there is a positive divergence on RSI indicator. I think the downtrend will continue after a bounce. I don't want to buy it - I think it's safer to sell the rip instead. The first target os 0.5 fib. The downtrend will probably continue all the way to 0.618 fib to close the gap.

by Supergalactic

HBGD ends the week weak HBGD ends this week under the support of the price, and goes back to the price of Apr. 26. It´s starting to enter the channel it made on Apr. 26, it looks as gravity calling it lower.

$SPY looks to recover in the short term If SPY holds $750–$744 and buyers return, I would watch for: 1. Reclaiming $761.33. 2. Breaking $766.94. 3. Testing $772.43. 4. Eventually retesting $781.62. Election uncertainty could create short-term volatility, but historical patterns favor a recovery after the election. These historical averages are not guarantees, particularly given current technology-sector valuation concerns. I believe SPY has a reasonable chance to retest $781.62 in November, but Friday's unusually heavy selling means

09:23

QQQ at 721.25 stuck under 727.95, does 701.16 hold?This is the ETF chart most traders watch, so the levels here are QQQ prices, not the index. QQQ closed Tuesday at 721.25, a two-day bounce from the 701.16 low on 23 Oct. It is under its 20-day (733.18) and 50-day (725.26) averages, and it is still well under the 762.86 high from 6 Oct, about 5.5% lower. The bounce has not yet cleared the 727.95 high from 21 Oct, which is the lower high that matters. It is over its 200-day average at 678.23 and its 20-week average at 718.64, so the bigger picture

SPY at 769.66 pinned between 758.68 and 774.44, who breaks?This is the ETF chart most traders watch, so the levels here are SPY prices, not the index. SPY closed Tuesday at 769.66, up from a 758.68 low on 23 Oct. It is sitting right on its 20-day average (770.41) and just over its 50-day (767.53), and well over its 200-day at 727.76. The high to beat is 774.44 from 21 Oct, and above that the 781.62 high from 6 Oct, the 52-week high. The weekly chart is still up with price over its 20-week average at 759.90, but the daily has stalled for three weeks. If

SOXX: First Test of the 200 EMA Since Last May SOXX has been showing a clear upward trend while holding above the 20 EMA. However, once price broke below the 20 EMA, the character of the trend changed noticeably, and we are now seeing a clear shift toward a downtrend. For the first time since last May, SOXX has come back to test the 200 EMA. The last time SOXX traded below the 200 EMA, it took roughly three months to reclaim it. That period was certainly weak, but the structure was nowhere near as aggressive as what we have seen over the p

"Sell in May & Go Away". A Seasonal Pattern That's Still In Play Hooray, Hooray.. Were you prepared or not but October has almost gone, as well as 6-month time span known as a market seasoanlity - the pattern "Sell in May and Go Away" The historical pattern known as the "Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal divergence was popularized by the Stock Trader's Almanac, which stated that investing in stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average from November to April and switching to fixed income for the remaining six months "has delivered reliable returns

by PandorraResearch

SPY Closed Under Its October Low At 755.72.Last read: SPY closed under 758.68 at 755.72, so the downside path fired; 756.15 traded before the close and 749.60 did not (low 750.36), and the gap down from 769.36 - almost four hourly ATRs - was never retested. SPY Closed Under Its October Low At 755.72. SPY closed at 755.72, under the October 23 low of 758.68, after opening 7.98 below Thursday's close. The low was 750.36, 0.76 above the September 16 low of 749.60, and the last hour bounced from there. SOM reads Choppy Bear on the hourly a

by virDeStatera

QQQ: Why is the channel rising while price falls?QQQ’s latest candle is below the lower edge of an upward-sloping regression channel. That can look contradictory. It isn’t: the channel summarizes a selected stretch of history, while the latest candle shows what price is doing now. This 4-hour chart fits September 1 through October 22. The recent pullback gives us a useful way to read the drawing without treating its upward slope as a forecast. What does the channel measure? The amber center line is a linear regression fitted to the selec

The Midterms Could Be the Next Market Catalyst The market is facing two pressures at once: investors are questioning whether massive AI spending will produce returns fast enough, and the midterm election could change expectations about Washington’s direction. Recent Big Tech earnings reactions have renewed scrutiny of AI capital spending and its payoff. At the same time, President Trump’s approval is deeply underwater in recent polling averages. As of October 30, prediction markets put the chance of Democrats taking both chambers near 69%, c

by Painfully_Average

AI Euphoria meets the inflation wall: Spy 4 hour megaphone Calling all bears... My fundamental bias is cautious: oil-driven inflation is squeezing households, while the Fed holds rates and investors question whether enormous AI spending will generate returns fast enough. Recent earnings reactions and apparent rotation toward bonds, healthcare, consumer and energy stocks suggest a shift away from crowded growth leadership, with midterm uncertainty adding another risk. Technically, SPY’s four-hour chart shows a clear broadening megaphone after the declin

by Painfully_Average

QQQ 685 HAPPY BLOODY HALLOWEEN! At the 200ema day NASDAQ:QQQ well I was wrong at 714$ saw it go way higher before a drop, oh well, at the same time, it rejected the 20ema and 50ema wednesday so that explains it I guess... IT's right now at the 200ema day... doubt dump more, it dropped down 45 degrees since all time high's, yes still under ema9, ema20, and ema50 but like a -4% and still think it's gonna go down the next day's I reallyy doubt...It's under the red line resistance so if it ever want's to go up fill some gap's to the upside fine

VFV Long Entry The strategy says enter. Bullish MA structure remains intact. Price pulled back to the 20 MA. CCI has triggered. Price remains above the established box. Stop is defined at 186.75. Emotion says wait because this pullback may have another leg lower. The strategy doesn't predict the next leg. It defines the entry. So we're in. SL remains at the predefined level.

by tradersteve22

SOXL: +27% in three sessions into 106 resistance — fading the ex SOXL (3x semiconductors) is up ~27% from Thursday's close and gapping another +3.7% to ~105 premarket on SK Hynix earnings. HIRO options flow is pinned near the top of its 30-day range, which often marks exhaustion. Overhead: 106.13 (Oct 21 high). Options positioning: Key Gamma 100, Hedge Wall 90, Call Wall 120. Plan: short only after rejection — price fails at 105–106 and loses 102.20 (yesterday's high). Targets: 101.08 (gap fill), then 100 (Key Gamma), 95 extended. Stop: above 107. Risks: 3x

by Momentum_trade

SPY at MAJOR inflection We are at the point in this cycle where we are nearing a move that can define the direction heading into 2027. Swing low and swing high AVWAPs are tight as can be while price action has wedged its way into the 770-760 range. A lot of resistances trying to stop price could mean when it breaks, it will be big and likely definitive.

by ItsJust_Kess

SOXL ▼ SHORT · Sell the bounce 84 / 87 → 76 / 73 ▸ WHY: INTC's guide cut and "PC slump into 2027" dumped the whole chip group overnight - AMD and ARM down ~9% premarket. SOXL is 3x semis, so it's -20% at 81.5. not shorting it down here right on top of the Oct 22 low, I want a bounce first ▸ LEVELS: 102.39 yesterday's close · 87-89 after-hours shelf · 84-86 premarket highs · 80.22 Oct 22 low ▸ PLAN: no position yet, selling the bounce - tier 1: short 84 if the bounce stalls under the premarket highs - tier 2: add 87 into the after-hours shelf

by Momentum_trade

Opening: IWM November 27th 256/266/290/300 Iron Condor ... for a 3.35 credit. Comments: Unlike SPY and QQQ, there is no skew to take advantage of here, so I'm selling the same delta (~25) on both sides of the setup and erecting my longs out from there. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.35 ($335) Max Loss: 6.65 ($665) ROC at Max: 50.4% ROC at 50% Max: 25.2% ROC at 10% of the Width of Widest Wing Take Profit: 15.0%

by NaughtyPines

QQQ Long Cleaned HTF Supply and Demand Curve. Clean targets. Ton of selling into this Fresh DZ. Good tell of what's next. If zone breaks...

Opening (IRA): SPY February19th -660P ... for a 6.66 credit. Comments: Only fitting that I get a 6.66 credit for this in light of Halloween ... . Back to laddering out at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on. Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Will generally roll up at 50% max, assuming there are >45 DTE and the strike is at <25 delta.

by NaughtyPines

Opening: SPY December 11th 640/650/738/748 Iron Condor ... for a 3.73 credit. Comments: A setup with the short option legs at the 25 delta strikes continues to pay 1/3rd the width of the widest wing in credit ... . Metrics: Max Profit: 3.73 ($373) Max Loss: 6.37 ($637) ROC at Max: 58.6% ROC at 50% Max: 29.3% ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing Take Profit: 15.7%

by NaughtyPines

Opening: QQQ December 11th 640/650/738/748 Iron Condor ... for a 3.51 credit. Comments: My weekly delta neutral iron condor in the broad market ETF with the highest IV. Selling the 25 delta strikes and erecting the wings out from there. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.51 ($351) Max Loss: 6.49 ($649) ROC at Max: 54.1% ROC at 50% Max: 27.0% ROC at 10% of the Widest Wing (i.e., 1.00): 15.4% Have been generally taking profit on these for 10% of the Widest Wing ... .

by NaughtyPines

Opening: QQQ November 27th 695/705/780/790 Iron Condor ... for a 3.66 credit. Comments: Late post. Put this on Monday, skewing it slightly short. Additionally, went Plain Jane iron condor instead of my usual double double due to delta skew having temporarily evaporated somewhat. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.66 ($366) Max Loss: 6.34 ($634) ROC at Max: 57.7% ROC at 50% Max: 28.9% ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing Take Profit: 15.8%

by NaughtyPines

Opening: QQQ Dec 4th 715/725/788/798 Iron Condor ... for a 3.45 credit. Comments: My weekly delta neutral iron condor in the broad market ETF with the highest IVR (implied volatility rank) structured to receive a credit that is around 1/3rd the width of the widest wing. Max Profit: 3.45 ($345) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 6.55 ($655) ROC at Max: 52.7% ROC at 50% Max: 26.3% ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing Take Profit: 15.3%

by NaughtyPines

S&P 500 in correction mode Following a divergence on the MACD on the weekly the S&P 500 has always corrected. Will the 4th time also work?