SPY Elliott Wave: Wave 3 Target Near 745, Larger Head & ShoulderThis is a developing Elliott Wave interpretation and will be adjusted as price action unfolds. Educational purposes only, not financial advice.
This chart shows my current Elliott Wave count for SPY on the 1-hour timeframe, alongside a potentially developing larger Head & Shoulders topping structure.
Larger Elliott Wave Structure
The June high is labeled Wave III, followed by a broad Wave IV correction. I am counting that correction as an A-B-C-D-E structure, completing near the early-August
ETF market
$GLD Weekly OutlookAMEX:GLD — Weekly
Down 1.97% to 398.77. But look at how it fell: volume at 123% of average, range at only 57% of normal, closing off the low.
Heavy volume that produces almost no movement is absorption. A lot of stock changed hands and price barely moved — someone is taking the selling.
This is the second Test sitting right on the weekly 34/50 cloud (@ripster47 EMA cloud). So far it's holding.
The line is 395.51 — weekly 34/50 and the Stopping Volume low together.
Weekly close above 400.35
$GLD — Sep 11 closeAMEX:GLD — Sep 11 close
This one is worth paying attention to. Two red candles in a row — one on a down day, one on an up day — both with increasing volume. Buyers are trying their best to lift this market and something is going on underneath.
Today shows it clearly. Gapped up to 403.65 on the print, then got sold all day to close 398.77, right near the low and back under 400. Volume rose again. Effort with no result — that's supply meeting every rally.
Fundamentally, CPI m/m came in hot, an
A reason for hope - long SPY @ 758.04It's been a rough week for the markets. If today continues red, it will be the first 4 day losing streak for SPY since March and before that it was late December 2025. If it feels unusually bleak, it's not your imagination.
But amidst rising bond yields, oil prices surging, a war that isn't over in the week it was promised to be and now spreading throughout the Middle East, inflation looming and the rising threat of AI exterminating our species, I have some statistically good news. The odds
Opening: SMH October 16th 510/520/620/630 Iron Condor... for a 4.20 credit.
Comments: High ETF IV at >35. Probably could've gone a smidge wider to give me more room to be wrong and still collect 1/3rd the width of the wings in credit ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 4.20 ($420)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 5.80 ($580)
ROC at Max: 72.1%
ROC at 50% Max: 36.2%
ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing: 17.2%
Will generally look to money, take, run at 10% of the width of the wing (i.e., 1.00/$100).
SPY Reclaimed 759.13 And Is Back At 762.57.SPY Reclaimed 759.13 And Is Back At 762.57.
SPY sold to 756.63 on the PPI reaction Thursday and has spent the overnight session climbing back, trading at 762.30 - above the 759.13 range low it lost and right at the 762.57 shelf it broke on Tuesday. That makes this a retest from below of a level it has already lost twice, which is a different thing than a hold. The 4H still reads impulse continuation lower with a Q4 short surface near 38 and its first non-waiting entry state in weeks, while the
Potential key reversal bottom detected for ZROZAwait signals for entry such as DMI/ADX and/or RSI (preferably both) swing to the bullish direction following the pullback after the initial major move on 19th August.
Stop loss for the trade involving AMEX:ZROZ (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade below the low of the signal day of 18th August (i.e.: any trade below $56.80).
P.S.: This is a 'proxy' trade for the TLT in which a lot more volume traded through ZROZ compared to TLT on a relative basis.
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 36 of 2026 (SEP 07 -11)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
SPY Weekly Recap Outlook
Price came very close to the Demand 1 level we were watching, but missed the target I gave for Long Scenario 2 by just 0.7 cents.
However, according to the CC Model, this setup could have been confirmed through ES.
Once the Flip Level broke, price moved higher exactly as expected.
Overall, it was a successful strategy. We captured a 2% move, equivalent to 15 points, from the confirmation zone.
(For reference, I have included last
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 36 of 2026 (SEP 07-11)QQQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
QQQ Weekly Recap Outlook
Long Scenario 2 worked exceptionally well on QQQ.
As planned, we took the trade on the retest from the Demand 1 zone.
Price delivered a 2.5% move, equivalent to 17 points, from Demand 1.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Trading Desk Weekly Execution Metrics | WEEK 35
Total Trades Closed: 12
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 4
Overall Win Rate: 67%
Index Options: 2 Trades (2 Wins)
Future
Heading toward big move in oct Not investment advice. I publish my own analysis of Martin Armstrong’s Socrates outputs combined with my own execution rules, for educational purposes. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Levels, dates and scores are my reading of computer-generated models and can be wrong. Do your own work or work with a licensed advisor. I hold or may initiate positions in the instruments discussed.
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Friday, September 11, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels for Friday, September 11, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Core CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
8:30 AM | Core CPI y/y | Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.5%
8:30 AM | CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.1%
8:30 AM | CPI y/y | Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.4%
10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 51.7
10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Previous: 4.0%
⚠️ For informational purposes only. No
SPY Holds Stage 2 as Breadth FadesSPY continues to trade above a rising 150-day SMA, a daily approximation of Weinstein’s 30-week moving average.
Nearly half of the stocks in the market universe are also still advancing, but participation has started to shift.
Stage 2 participation currently stands at 48.6%. That is still a strong reading, but it peaked near 55% in mid-July and has been trending lower.
Stage 3 (Topping) has risen to 21.0%, its highest level since early spring.
Stage 4 (Declining) has turned higher from its s
$SPY — Sep 10 closeClosed 757.83, down 0.60%. But the whole loss came from the gap down at the open. Open to close was 0.20 points — price gapped, then went nowhere all session.
Volume finally showed up. 42.72M vs a 36.4M average, the heaviest of this whole leg and 33% more than yesterday.
And it produced nothing. Narrowest range of the sequence, 58% of a normal day.
Heavy volume with no price movement means someone is taking the other side. Sellers pushed with size today and buyers absorbed it.
760.57 broke.
$QQQ Daily Close — Sep 10NASDAQ:QQQ Daily Close — Sep 10
NASDAQ:QQQ closed 708.69, down 1.06%, below both @ripster47 EMA clouds. Price opened under the 34-50, high of the day was 712.06, and it closed at 708.69 — through the whole cloud. That's a 34-50 Break. The 5-12 Break came first in the same bar.
The volume finally answered the question
For six sessions I've been flagging the same thing on this chart: every up bar came on below-average volume. The Sep 3 curl, the follow-through, the bounces — all of it on lig
$GLD — Sep 10 closeAMEX:GLD — Sep 10 close
400 failed. Another Gap Down Fade — opened under the level, tried to reclaim it at 401.15, then sold off all day to close 396.36, near the lows.
That's an MTF Break (@ripster47 EMA cloud). The close is below 399.33, which was my line, so my long from 400 is done. I'll own that: I said at the time the bounce was unconfirmed — no Stopping Volume, no hammer, holding on an absence of sellers rather than any real buying. That's the version that gives way, and it did.
Volum
SOXX Simple chart says the most-Volume ProfileDisclaimer: This is for educational purpose only, and not an investment advice.
Here I have on a weekly SOX (Semiconductor sector),volume profile with only developing volume area (DVA) plotted and nothing else, with value area set at default of 70%
Just like VWAP, DVA can provide valuable insight
Just like VWAP, sometimes better, thought not exactly like Vwap.
1.prices can come to revisit the developing lines.
2. These lines can act as support resistance
3.Breakout from the area,will fast p
TQQQ: Descending Channel, Bearish Persists As of today September 6, 2026, ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) is trading around $72.37, recovering slightly following recent market shifts driven by mixed U.S economic data, jobs reports affecting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and fluctuating Treasury yields.
Technical view:
TQQQ is positioned on a bearish pathway, trending partially on lower lows and highs for a few months now, in respect to the structure. The etf continues to range down, as sellers holds more momentum on the market. P
TLT Long Near weekly support
Entry 81.06
no Stop
Target 84, 87
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader. About 25% of my trades had been stopped quickly.
TLT BFF (buy for Free)
SellToOpen 2026-12-18 P80, 1.66 (Delta=-0.36)
BuyToOpen 2026-12-18 C82, 1.61 (Delta= 0.5)
Total credit 0.05
Allow assignment to accumulate Conservative long term investment.
if P80 could be assigned, same as limit buy at 80.
No stop, keep accumulating TLT via s
SPY Short Trade IdeaIt appears the macroeconomic winds are changing from my perspective.
Continuing with educational content regarding the RSI and trading in general - the last SPY long idea was a bust. This provided me with some valuable information - it is time to test out the short thesis. Since I know my win rate, win %, per trade expectancy, and average risk to reward for my edge - I know that a failed trade is to be EXPECTED. I don't have a 100% win rate...yet.
The RSI is a momentum indicator.
if the RSI























