Oil Spike, Market Drop, EV BounceThere is an interesting macro pattern that often gets overlooked:
When oil spikes, the broader market usually comes under pressure.
But electric vehicle stocks can sometimes move in the opposite direction.
The logic is simple. Higher oil prices act like a tax on consumers, pressure inflation expectations, and create stress for equity markets. That is why the S&P 500 often weakens when crude oil moves sharply higher.
But for EV companies, the interpretation can be different.
If gasoline becomes more expensive, the relative appeal of electric vehicles improves. The market starts pricing the idea that higher fuel costs may accelerate the shift away from internal combustion engines and toward EV adoption.
This chart shows the relationship clearly.
In August 2023, crude oil moved sharply higher.
At the same time, the S&P 500 corrected lower.
NIO, however, staged a strong rally into that same period.
That does not mean EV stocks always rise when oil rises. The relationship is not mechanical. EV companies still depend on interest rates, consumer demand, margins, competition, China exposure, and company-specific execution.
But the pattern is important.
Oil strength can create a relative narrative tailwind for EV stocks.
And this is where Tesla becomes the broader, more liquid way to express the same theme.
NIO is a higher-beta example. It can move aggressively when the EV narrative comes back, but it also carries more company-specific and China-related risk.
Tesla is the cleaner market proxy.
It has deeper liquidity, stronger brand recognition, global scale, and remains the stock most investors use when they want exposure to the EV transition.
The setup is not simply “oil up, buy EVs.”
The better framework is:
Oil spike = pressure on consumers and broad equities.
Higher fuel costs = renewed attention on EV adoption.
EV stocks = potential relative outperformers if the market starts rotating into the theme.
That makes this an interesting watchlist idea, not a blind trade.
For NIO, the key is whether price can hold above its base and reclaim the 200-day moving average. Without that, the stock remains a high-risk speculative rebound.
For Tesla, the cleaner question is whether oil strength can support a renewed EV narrative while the stock holds its major technical support levels.
My view:
If crude oil continues higher and the S&P 500 starts pricing inflation and consumer pressure again, EV stocks could become an interesting relative trade. My favourite is NASDAQ:LI currently sitting in the 16$ zone with potential upside move of more than 60%.
Not because their fundamentals instantly improve.
But because the narrative changes.
When oil is cheap, EV adoption looks like a long-term technology story.
When oil spikes, EV adoption starts to look like an economic necessity.
That is when the market can suddenly remember the sector again. 
Education
Long
Short 
SPY May 19: Dealers Defending 739 While Bulls Fight for BreakoutSPY closed the session directly inside one of the most important dealer-controlled zones on the chart. After recovering sharply from the afternoon flush near 733–734, buyers managed to push price back toward 739 into the close, but momentum slowed immediately once SPY reached resistance.
Tomorrow’s battle is centered around 739.
On the 15-minute chart, SPY formed a strong intraday recovery structure with higher lows and improving EMA alignment after the late-session reversal. However, price remains trapped beneath the descending trendline and directly inside a heavy gamma zone where dealers appear to be suppressing volatility.
The GEX structure makes the current setup extremely important.
Right now, dealers appear comfortable pinning SPY near 738–739. As long as price remains inside this area, expect chop, fake breakouts, and fast reversals designed to trap both CALLs and PUTs.
If buyers reclaim and hold above 739, the upside targets become:
741
742
then potentially 743 if momentum expands
That 742–743 area is the next major call-wall zone and could become the larger upside magnet if SPY breaks free from the current dealer-controlled range. Dealer hedging above 739 may begin helping upside continuation if buyers gain control early in the session.
On the bearish side, the key support remains 737–735.
If SPY loses 737 support with volume, downside targets become:
735
734
potentially 733–732 if sellers regain momentum
The important thing right now is that SPY recovered enough into the close to avoid immediate breakdown conditions, but buyers still have not confirmed a full trend reversal. Price remains stuck directly under resistance while dealers continue pinning the market near 739.
Trading plan for May 19:
Bullish scenario:
A clean breakout and hold above 739 could trigger continuation toward 741 and 742. If momentum expands, 743 becomes the next major target.
Bearish scenario:
If SPY rejects 739 again or loses 737 support, sellers may rotate price back toward 735 and lower.
No-trade zone:
Anything between 737 and 739 may remain highly choppy while dealers continue suppressing volatility.
Overall, SPY looks like a market preparing for expansion after a volatile consolidation session. Dealers currently appear focused on defending the 739 zone, but once price escapes this balance area, the next directional move could accelerate quickly. 
Long
Long
$XLU Buy at 40Courtesy of Pat L:
05/15/2026
“Oil may be approaching a cyclical peak as geopolitical risk premiums appear increasingly priced in, while future supply could expand through OPEC/UAE production increases, resilient U.S. output, and potential Venezuelan normalization.
Although many oil companies continue to generate strong cash flows and maintain healthy balance sheets, the medium-term upside may become more constrained if supply growth begins to outpace demand expectations and multiples remain elevated.
In contrast, utilities and power infrastructure may possess a stronger long-duration runway driven by structural rather than cyclical forces. Electrification, AI data centers, industrial reshoring, grid modernization, and rising global electricity demand are creating sustained capital investment requirements across the power ecosystem.
AI compute growth, in particular, is increasingly creating a structural electricity demand shock. The emerging constraint is shifting from compute demand itself toward power availability, transmission capacity, interconnection timelines, and grid reliability.
As a result, utilities and infrastructure providers with scalable generation capacity, favorable regulatory frameworks, transmission exposure, and proximity to hyperscaler demand hubs may experience sustained capex expansion and long-term earnings growth.” 
Long
$XLU Buy at 40Taken from Pat L:
4/15/2026
“Oil may be approaching a cyclical peak as geopolitical risk premiums appear increasingly priced in, while future supply could expand through OPEC/UAE production increases, resilient U.S. output, and potential Venezuelan normalization.
Although many oil companies continue to generate strong cash flows and maintain healthy balance sheets, the medium-term upside may become more constrained if supply growth begins to outpace demand expectations and multiples remain elevated.
In contrast, utilities and power infrastructure may possess a stronger long-duration runway driven by structural rather than cyclical forces. Electrification, AI data centers, industrial reshoring, grid modernization, and rising global electricity demand are creating sustained capital investment requirements across the power ecosystem.
AI compute growth, in particular, is increasingly creating a structural electricity demand shock. The emerging constraint is shifting from compute demand itself toward power availability, transmission capacity, interconnection timelines, and grid reliability.
As a result, utilities and infrastructure providers with scalable generation capacity, favorable regulatory frameworks, transmission exposure, and proximity to hyperscaler demand hubs may experience sustained capex expansion and long-term earnings growth.“ Long 
Short 
Short
Long
QQQ Daily Structure Test: Reclaim Fast or Begin Next Leg LowerNASDAQ:QQQ $702 target hit. Updating next sequence of events from here.
At this point I’m mainly watching whether daily structure can reclaim fast, or if this turns into the larger downside sequence that weekly structure has been suggesting.
Most likely scenario, blue path:
QQQ breaks slow on the daily, likely today or tomorrow.
From there I’d expect a bounce attempt around Wednesday that re-tests roughly the $703-$708 area. Main thing I’ll be watching is whether price can actually reclaim fast with momentum behind it.
If price fails to re-cross fast, then I think we begin the next larger leg lower.
Hypothetically, if weekly fast and price meet halfway, potential downside for this sequence could reach around $692 sometime this week.
Less likely scenario, yellow path:
Directionals are squeezing, but momentum still is not fully stretched on the downside yet.
Because of that, if earnings are strong enough, there’s still a decent chance directionals pick back up and carry QQQ back toward the $715 area before the larger downside sequence continues.
My hesitation with that scenario is that a lot of the chip/AI hype already feels heavily priced in at these levels, so even if we get another push higher, I currently view it more as another sequence before downside continuation rather than immediate sustained expansion.
Main thing I’m watching:
Can QQQ reclaim fast and sustain momentum back toward $715?
If yes, yellow path remains valid.
If not, and fast fails on the re-test, I think blue path becomes much more likely with downside accelerating toward weekly fast.
If $715 breaks cleanly, count this analysis as failed. Markets Research 18.05.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY −1.78 −0.24%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ −1.16 −0.16%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting — Day 1.
10:00 USA – Housing Market Index
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:RAMP NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:RYAAY NYSE:BRC
Other news:
NASDAQ:NVDA bought stakes in NYSE:COHR and NASDAQ:GENB in Q1 2026 and doubled its stake in NASDAQ:CRWV — 13F filing.
Berkshire Hathaway bought shares of NASDAQ:GOOGL , $M, and NYSE:DAL in Q1 2026.
NYSE:NEE is in discussions to acquire $D Dominion Energy Inc in a deal valued at roughly $66 billion. / that would value Dominion shares at approximately $76 each. The proposed structure would consist primarily of stock, with NYSE:NEE expected to offer around 0.8 shares of its own stock for each $D
NYSE:YSS has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ALL.SPACE (private company), a Rochefort-financed company and a leading provider of advanced satellite communications terminals and multi-network connectivity solutions.
Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a sizeable stake in U.S. diagnostics supplier NYSE:BIO , and plans to push the company to boost its underperforming stock price, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Elliott has also built a stake in German biopharma equipment supplier Sartorius LSE:SRT / Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Elliott, Bio-Rad, and Sartorius did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The exact size of Elliott's shareholding in Bio-Rad or Sartorius was not disclosed in the report.
NYSE:RDW will present at SOF Week in Florida, a defense event from May 18–21, to showcase technologies for space and military use.
Обновленная сделка NASDAQ:SATS со SpaceX может принести компании акции SpaceX на сумму до 11 миллиардов долларов.
NYSE:NOW Price Target Announced at $130.00/Share by B of A Securities
$F Ford Charges Ahead in Europe: Seven New Models and Smart Tech to Keep Vans on Road and Businesses Earning
NASDAQ:ASTS major regulatory breakthrough in Brazil, where the country’s telecom authority “approved the company’s application with conditions tied to spectrum usage” to operate a 248-satellite orbital network.
At least six Americans exposed to Ebola in DR Congo, US media report NASDAQ:GOVX NASDAQ:SBFM
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC was dropping on Monday as fears of higher interest rates dragged down cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:COIN NYSE:BMNR CRYPTOCAP:SOL
-- Crypto ATM operator Bitcoin Depot filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and shut down its entire crypto ATM network.
-- CEO Alex Holmes blamed the bankruptcy on state-level bans, transaction limits, and a growing number of lawsuits.
Berkshire Hathaway fully exited NASDAQ:AMZN , NYSE:UNH , and NASDAQ:DPZ in Q1 2026.
NASDAQ:REGN Stock Sinks as Key Melanoma Drug Trial Fails to Beat Merck’s Keytruda
China EV names under a lot of pressure today. Li Auto NASDAQ:LI drops 14% on study by Citi that elevated inventory levels could impact margins in 2Q and 3Q.
NASDAQ:ADEA Chief Legal Officer (CLO) Sold Shares Worth Over $3.1M
NASDAQ:TSLA falls as fresh SpaceX IPO developments reignited investor speculation around a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger after veteran tech investor Gene Munster said that the odds of a deal were greater than 50%.
‼️ Additional
TRUMP: Iran is running out of time, and they had better hurry — fast — or there will be nothing left of them. TIME DECIDES EVERYTHING!
-- According to two US officials, Trump is expected to meet with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss options for military action against Iran — Axios.
-- Trump posted an image on Truth Social hinting at a possible imminent strike on Iran.
-- Saudi Arabia reported that it was attacked by Iranian drones.
-- IRGC: ALL US MILITARY BASES IN THE SOUTHERN PERSIAN GULF WILL BE DEACTIVATED.
DoubleLine Capital CEO and “Bond King” Gundlach:
-- Kevin Warsh is taking office at a “difficult time.”
-- DoubleLine models suggest the next inflation print will start with a 4% handle.
-- A Fed rate cut is unlikely at a time when bond yields are 0.5% above the policy rate.
-- The US 30-year yield has once again exceeded 5%, approaching its highest levels in 20 years.
-- Polymarket now prices the probability of US inflation exceeding 4% in 2026 at 97%.
-- JPMorgan AM, like many other investment houses, says the prospect of Fed rate hikes is becoming an increasingly relevant topic in the market.
-- US Treasuries are getting crushed.
-- Markets are actively pricing in further inflation acceleration, a slower pace of monetary easing, and a possible rate hike as early as this year.
China and the US agreed to establish bilateral trade and investment councils to resolve disputes in the respective areas — China’s Ministry of Commerce.
📋 List of tickers involved:
NYSE:RAMP NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:RYAAY NYSE:BRC NASDAQ:NVDA NYSE:COHR NASDAQ:GENB NASDAQ:CRWV NASDAQ:GOOGL $M NYSE:DAL NYSE:NEE $D NYSE:YSS NYSE:BIO LSE:SRT NYSE:RDW NASDAQ:SATS NYSE:NOW $F NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:GOVX NASDAQ:SBFM CRYPTOCAP:BTC NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:COIN NYSE:BMNR CRYPTOCAP:SOL NASDAQ:AMZN NYSE:UNH NASDAQ:DPZ NASDAQ:REGN NASDAQ:LI NASDAQ:ADEA NASDAQ:TSLA
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
Long
SPY May 18 Setup: Bulls Losing Control Under 740SPY is entering May 18 with weak 15-minute structure after failing to hold the 740 area. The chart shows a clear rejection from the 742–743 zone, followed by a clean breakdown into the 737 area. Right now, buyers are trying to stabilize, but the bounce is still very weak.
The key message is simple: under 740, SPY remains vulnerable.
On the 15-minute chart, SPY closed near 737.3 after selling pressure pushed price below the major moving averages. RSI is sitting near weak territory around 30, showing sellers still control momentum. The small sideways move near 737 looks more like pause after selling than a true reversal.
Key levels I’m watching:
Support:
737.0
735.0
732.0
730.0
Resistance:
739.0
740.0
744.0
748.0
The most important level Monday is 740. Bulls need to reclaim and hold above 740 to shift the short-term structure back toward recovery. Without that reclaim, any bounce can still be treated as a lower-high setup.
The GEX picture supports the caution.
Current GEX positioning shows:
Heavy put pressure with puts around 73.9%
Negative GEX environment
Strong downside magnets around 735, 732, and 730
Resistance above near 740, 744, 748, and 750
Bigger upside resistance near 755
This matters because negative GEX can make downside moves faster when support breaks. If SPY loses 737, the next clean downside levels are 735, then 732–730. That 730 area is the bigger put wall and could become a major downside magnet if sellers stay in control.
Bullish Scenario:
If SPY reclaims 740 with strong candles and volume, it can attempt a recovery toward 744 first. Above 744, the next upside target is 748–750.
Bearish Scenario:
If SPY stays below 740 and breaks 737, downside momentum can continue toward 735, 732, and 730. Under negative GEX, that move can expand quickly.
Scalping Plan for Monday:
CALL setup:
Only consider calls if SPY reclaims 740 and holds above it. Safer confirmation comes above 744.
PUT setup:
PUT remains cleaner if SPY rejects 739–740 or breaks below 737 with momentum. First targets are 735, then 732–730.
Right now, SPY is not showing a strong bullish reversal yet. The chart is weak, GEX is bearish, and 740 is the line bulls must win back. Until then, the better trade plan is to stay defensive and let the market prove itself. Weekly Bias — 18 MayAll 3 indices are still in higher-timeframe uptrends after the April V-reversal, but the structure is beginning to look late-stage impulsive rather than early accumulation
The key divergence is AMEX:IWM underperformance
Relative weakness in small caps is typically consistent with rising real yields/tighter financial conditions, growth leadership narrowing & institutional rotation into mega-cap quality rather than broad risk-on participation
This matters because durable bull continuation usually wants breadth expansion, cyclicals confirming & small caps leading
Right now, breadth is fading while NASDAQ:QQQ remains extended above its intermediate trend averages
NASDAQ:QQQ remains in a strong bullish market structure
Trend still above 20d & 50d MAs
Anchored trend support
However, price is now trading deep into the 100% measured extension (~$722), upper volatility envelope & overbought momentum conditions
The last several candles show shorter real bodies, increased upper wicks & slowing momentum despite price making higher highs
That is classic distributional behavior after an impulse leg
The push through $700–$705 likely acted as a buy-side liquidity sweep
Price expanded aggressively into psychological resistance, extension resistance & crowded call positioning, but RSI failed to accelerate materially with price, MACD histogram is flattening & volume is declining versus the April rally phase
This is hidden bearish divergence
Price higher highs
Momentum plateauing
The market is signaling continuation is getting increasingly expensive
The rally from the April lows was validated by strong participation initially, but the last leg from ~$680 → ~$720 occurred on declining relative volume, while RSI remained pinned >70 & MACD expansion slowed
Usually precedes either consolidation, volatility compression, or sharp mean-reversion
A daily close back below R2 after tagging highs looks like a failed breakout acceptance, probable reversion toward the 20d mean
AMEX:SPY looks structurally healthier than NASDAQ:QQQ because breadth is somewhat better, fewer parabolic candles
Cleaner stair-step advance, but the same warning signs exist — RSI > 70 rolling lower,
MACD histogram decelerating & rejection directly beneath R2/extension levels
Resistance $740–$750
Major breakout trigger >$750
Fair value/equilibrium $723–$728
First downside magnet $710
Major support $695 pivot
Breakdown acceleration <$690
AMEX:IWM is the most important tell here
Unlike QQQ/SPY, it failed to sustain above R2, already lost near-term momentum & closed back toward R1 support
This is a potential failed breakout, bearish MSS (market structure shift) & relative risk-off signal
If yields continue higher, AMEX:IWM likely underperforms further
From the option chain data
1. NASDAQ:QQQ
25Δ call IV ~19.9%
25Δ put IV ~25.5%
Strong downside skew
2. AMEX:SPY
25Δ call IV ~11.0%
25Δ put IV~16.7%
Defensive hedging bid
3. AMEX:IWM
25Δ call IV ~19.6%
25Δ put IV ~28.2%
Heavy downside demand
The market isn't chasing upside convexity aggressively, but is paying materially for downside protection
Consistent with institutions hedging into strength, not panic, but cautious positioning near extension highs
AMEX:IWM put skew especially stands out
Current environment appears to be realized trend slowing, implied volatility stabilizing rather than collapsing
Suggests market expects larger directional movement soon, likely transition from grind-up to expansion regime
This doesn't look like a pure volatility crush environment anymore
Likely dealer gamma areas
1. NASDAQ:QQQ
Major positive gamma support $680–$685
Resistance/call wall $720–$725
Trigger level above $725 could squeeze toward $740 rapidly
2. AMEX:SPY
Gamma support $723
Resistance $740–$750
Volatility trigger below $720
3. AMEX:IWM
Key support $277–$280
Air pocket below $270
Resistance $287–$290
AMEX:IWM losing $277 likely accelerates dealer short gamma behavior faster than QQQ/SPY
Fair value/equilibrium
NASDAQ:QQQ
Fair value $680–$690
Current price stretched above equilibrium
AMEX:SPY
Fair value $720–$728
AMEX:IWM
Fair value $268–$272
Best risk/reward remains a short-term downside mean-reversion → not outright trend reversal, but a tactical pullback setup
1. NASDAQ:QQQ
$700–$705 rejection continuation
Target $690 first, $680 main magnet
Invalidation on daily acceptance above $722–$725
2. AMEX:SPY
Bearish below $740
Target $723, then $710
Invalidation on sustained breakout above $750
3. AMEX:IWM
Bearish below $280
Target $270, then $267 pivot
Invalidation on reclaim above $288
1σ expected move approximate near-term 1σ move
NASDAQ:QQQ ±16–18 → expected range roughly $690–$725
AMEX:SPY ±14–16 → roughly $724–$755
AMEX:IWM ±7–8 → roughly $270–$286
Current price is already pressing the upper side of those expected distributions, which increases mean-reversion probability unless a fresh catalyst appears
This is still technically a bullish higher-timeframe market, but momentum is decelerating, breadth is narrowing, small caps are failing, downside skew is elevated & rallies are occurring on thinner participation
Combination usually precedes consolidation, pullback into moving averages, or a volatility expansion lower before the next sustainable advance
The key tell this week is whether QQQ/SPY can reclaim & hold above extension highs,
or whether this week becomes a failed breakout & liquidity sweep above prior highs
Long
NAIL, it is getting close to that $21 buying level!Since 2016, 4 uptrends leading to:
Started 2/2016, +700% gain for 715 days
Started 12/2018, +352% gain for 422 days
Started 3/2020, +2,365% gain for 629 days
Started 10/2022, +848% gain for 723 days
This is not a set it and forget trade. This really is a 'trend is your friend, EXCEPT FOR THE CLIFF AT THE END. The drawdown from the peaks have been -82% to -95%. There are a lot of indicators/strategies for managing your exit. There is no guarantee it gets below $21, but each of the above uptrends troughs went below $21.
For me, I will likely will trade it with a 3 day bar and track higher lows. Peak to trough I may be in and out of it 2-4 trades throughout the uptrend duration.
Long
