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SPY Swept The Low And A Buyer Showed Up.SPY Swept The Low And A Buyer Showed Up.
SPY rejected the 755.66 highs and sold off as flagged. Overnight it swept a swing low and a fresh bull announcement is forming right at 748 with top-quartile conviction. A liquidity grab below followed by a conviction flip is the classic shakeout tell. But the entry is still forming, not confirmed, and structure is still impulse-continuation bear. This is the one name where a confirmed break is worth leaning on, so it is the one to watch - not there yet.
Resistance: 751.00 - first shelf overhead
Key resistance: 755.66 - the rejected highs
Current price: 748.30
Support: 740.44 - the shakeout-vs-turn line
Key support: 739.34 - the session low that was swept
Structural floor: 742.00 - the demand zone base
Two paths from here:
The buyer confirms and price reclaims 751. If the bull announcement resolves and 751 comes back, the sweep did its job, the shakeout is complete, and the 755.66 highs are back in play. This is the setup that unlocks a long lean once it confirms - a swept low plus a conviction flip is how bottoms start.
The buyer fails and 739.34 goes. If price loses the swept low on a close, the grab was real supply rather than a shakeout, the demand zone fails, and lower opens up. Below 739.34 the bull announcement is invalidated and the bear continuation stands.
A swept low with a buyer stepping in is the most constructive thing on the board this morning - but only after it confirms. Watching for the reclaim, not front-running it.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
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TLT — 3-Year Descending Wedge at the Apex | Stage 1 Base**The Setup**
TLT has spent nearly three years compressing inside a descending wedge:
— Descending resistance from the July 2023 highs (~$103), capping every rally through 2024–2026
— Rising support from the lows, now converging with price in the $83–85 zone
Price is at the apex. Three years of compression doesn't resolve quietly — the question is direction and timing, not whether.
**Key Levels**
— $85.45 — Wholesale Area. Current price. Tested and defended multiple times. Decision zone.
— $83.20 — Weekly 200 EMA. The floor beneath the floor. Bull thesis dies below here on a weekly close.
— $90–91 — Retail Area. Every rally since early 2026 has failed here. Reclaiming this = confirmation.
— Mid-$90s — Extended target, only in play after $90–91 holds.
**Indicators**
— Weekly RSI: flat, basing below 50 coiled, not committed
— Weinstein Stage Analysis: Stage 1 base. The trade is the confirmed Stage 2 breakout, not the anticipation of one
— Daily Stochastic: deeply oversold supports a tactical bounce off Wholesale, but daily oscillators are tactical, not structural
**The Flow Layer**
Unusual options activity (June 2 – July 8): ~$3.4M in premium, all into Jan 2028 calls, all bought at the ask, zero puts. Heaviest strike: $100 (~$1.1M, 8,200+ contracts, OI grown from ~70K to 105K+). The strike ladder $85 / $90 / $95 / $100 maps directly onto the chart levels above. Someone with patience is reading the same structure. Caveat: flow is a filtered window; some of this may be spreads or hedges. It rhymes with the thesis it doesn't confirm it.
**The Macro Layer**
TLT rising = long-term rates falling. But context decides everything: bonds up + stocks up = easing (risk-on). Bonds up + stocks down = fear (risk-off). Watch credit spreads and copper/gold alongside any breakout to know which regime is driving it.
**The Plan**
Above Wholesale ($85.45): structure intact, thesis alive
Break of descending trendline + weekly hold above $90–91: Stage 2 confirmation
Weekly close below the 200 EMA (~$83): thesis invalidated. No negotiation, no averaging down
Invalidation defined before targets. Always in that order.
Not financial advice. Educational structure only. Risk is yours to own. Long 
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Research 13.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY −2.51 −0.33%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ −6.74 −0.93%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
The official US corporate earnings season begins.
14:00 USA – Monthly Budget Statement
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:QTTB posts positive 36-week SIGNAL-AA Part B topline results; plans registrational program in H1 2027
NASDAQ:MESO Moved to Buy from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter
Niel family’s Vega to acquire 16.2% Vodafone NASDAQ:VOD stake from e& for $5.95bn
Michael Burry Sees Hong Kong Market Benefiting From Korea's AI-Memory Unwind : NASDAQ:JD FTMO_OANDA:BABA NYSE:BEKE NYSE:YUMC
Software Rebounds on Chip Stocks Drop and in AI Trade Shift : NYSE:CRM NYSE:NOW NASDAQ:ADBE NASDAQ:WDAY NASDAQ:SHOP NASDAQ:CDNS NASDAQ:INTU NASDAQ:ADSK
NYSE:TSM Delivers Record Second-Quarter Revenue
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:SKHY SK Hynix drops from highs on 15% after IPO / memory sector falss in syphaty to SKHY : NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC
Last week, two short-seller reports from Hunterbrook Research and Crossroads Capital alleged that Bloom Energy NYSE:BE has understated its reliance on Chinese-sourced scandium, a key material used in its solid oxide fuel cells.
FTMO_OANDA:META Lifts Cost of Louisiana Data Center to $50 Billion
‼️ Additional
S&P 500 futures are trading lower as escalation between the US and Iran intensified over the weekend.
-- The US has launched a new wave of strikes against Iran — CENTCOM.
-- Yemen’s Houthis said that Saudi Arabia’s new attacks on Sana’a airport have ended the period of de-escalation, and that Saudi Arabia will now be held accountable.
-- Iran’s Foreign Ministry: A crisis has emerged in the implementation of the memorandum with the US.
-- Iran will not fulfill its obligations under the memorandum of understanding with the US until the other side fulfills its own obligations — Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
JPMorgan AM expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026.
This week, Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress for the first time as Fed Chair.
-- Warsh’s testimony before the House is scheduled for Tuesday, July 14, and his testimony before the Senate is scheduled for Wednesday, July 15.
The official US earnings season begins this week.
-- The largest banks traditionally open the season: Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and BofA report on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and BNY report on Wednesday.
-- The peak of this earnings season is expected to fall in the final week of July and the first week of August.
🔁 Business Combination / SPAC Deal
NASDAQ:GFUZ – General Fusion Group Ltd.
Company develops fusion energy technology using Magnetized Target Fusion. General Fusion completed its business combination with Spring Valley Acquisition Corp. III and will begin trading on Nasdaq under NASDAQ:GFUZ , with warrants under $GFUZW. Core thesis is commercialization of fusion power for clean energy, energy security, AI and data center electricity demand.
Cash at Closing: ~$150M
Trading Date: July 13, 2026
Key points:
First publicly listed fusion company
Capital expected to fund Lawson program through key 2028 milestones
LM26 demonstration machine is already operating at commercially relevant scale
Main technical goals: plasma heating to 1 keV, then 10 keV, and ultimately Lawson criterion
Comparable public companies: NYSE:OKLO , NYSE:SMR , NASDAQ:CEG , NYSE:NEE , NYSE:GEV , NYSE:BE
📋 List of tickers involved:
QTTB NASDAQ:MESO NASDAQ:VOD NASDAQ:JD FTMO_OANDA:BABA NYSE:BEKE NYSE:YUMC NYSE:CRM NYSE:NOW NASDAQ:ADBE NASDAQ:WDAY NASDAQ:SHOP NASDAQ:CDNS NASDAQ:INTU NASDAQ:ADSK NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NYSE:BE NASDAQ:GFUZ NASDAQ:GFUZW NYSE:OKLO NYSE:SMR NASDAQ:CEG NYSE:NEE NYSE:GEV
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
