Research 01.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY -2.05 -0.27%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -4.50 -0.61%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
08:15 USA – ADP Employment Change
09:00 USA – Fed Chair Warsh Speech (First speech by the new Fed Chair)
10:00 USA – ISM Manufacturing Employment
10:00 USA – EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:MSM NYSE:GIS NYSE:STZ
Other news:
NASDAQ:JEM to advance AI-powered, blockchain-enabled supply-chain platform; Board approves strategic exploration
NASA Doles Out More Money for Lunar Missions NASDAQ:LUNR NASDAQ:SPCX
Swedish court says NASDAQ:GOOGL is to pay $1.5 billion to NYSE:KLAR in antitrust damages
Brookfield Expands NYSE:BE AI Power Partnership to $25 Billion
NYSE:NOW and NYSE:ACN have launched a joint offering to help organisations modernise risk management systems and transition from legacy cybersecurity platforms to agentic AI solutions.
U.S. Department of Energy Approves Final Safety Analysis for Oklo's NYSE:OKLO Groves Isotope Test Reactor, Advancing the Project Toward Operational Authorization
Visa $V , Mastercard NYSE:MA , Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN and BlackRock NYSE:BLK Unite Behind Open USD (OUSD): The First Real Threat to USDT and USDC NYSE:CRCL / Circle CRCL shares, the issuer of the #USDC stablecoin, were removed from the Russell indexes.
NYSE:XPEV Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for June and Second Quarter 2026
NYSE:LMT wins $3.0B Sentinel A4 radar contract; adds Cyber-over-RF to Sanctum C-UAS
NASDAQ:TSLA sales rose in June in France, Sweden, and Denmark, as the recovery in Europe continues — RTRS.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:NKE (NKE swings to Q4 profit on tariff refund boost, but China slump deepens
) NYSE:FDS
Other news:
Samsung, SK Hynix ( AMEX:KORU ), and NASDAQ:MU were sued in California last week in a class action suit claiming that they illegally coordinated to restrict DRAM supply and inflate prices. CBOE:DRAM CBOE:RAM NASDAQ:SNDK
NYSE:AA will acquire South32's 86% interest in Worsley Alumina and full ownership of Hillside Aluminium for $5.6bn
NYSE:NIO Provides June and Second Quarter 2026 Delivery Update
NASDAQ:TC pump&dump
NYSE:SSTK said the Getty Images merger will be terminated after Getty declined to sell Shutterstock's editorial business required by the CMA, and the company will continue operating as a standalone
‼️ Additional
The US has additionally deployed 12 fighter jets to an airbase in Saudi Arabia — Military Air Tracking Alliance.
The US government has officially lifted international export restrictions on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 AI model.
JPMorgan: Gold prices could reach $6,000 by the end of 2026.
The IEA forecasts that US spending on coal and gas power plants will rise to $50 billion this year.
Nuclear weapons can now be brought into Finland under the new law.
Shares of companies that supply semiconductor equipment are soaring this week as increased investments from leading chipmakers in South Korea bolster investors' optimism. NASDAQ:ASML NASDAQ:KLAC NASDAQ:LRCX NASDAQ:AMAT
Polymarket odds that the long-awaited US crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, will be signed this year have started to fall.
-- Trump officially earned more than $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025 — disclosure.
🏢 IPO
NASDAQ:BSP – Bending Spoons
The company manages a portfolio of digital businesses, including AOL, Eventbrite, and Vimeo. It acquires digital platforms, implements deep operational transformations and AI-driven optimizations to sustainably expand earnings, and reinvests the returns into further acquisitions to continue its compounding cycle.
Price: $29.00
Volume: 58.0M
Raised: $1,681.1M
For the 12 months ended March 31, 2026:
Revenue: $1,648.78M
Net income: -$84.54M
Employees: 2,284
Peers: IAC, ZD, MTCH
NYSE:CUX – CopperTech Metals
The company controls a significant high-grade copper and cobalt production system in Zambia, anchored by its flagship asset, Konkola Plc. It implements a technology-led operating model featuring AI-driven optimizations and a strategic collaboration with Palantir to scale up production and supply critical minerals for AI infrastructure, data centers, and global electrification.
Price: $16.00 - $18.00
Volume: 23.5M
Raised: $400.0M
For the 12 months ended March 31, 2026:
Revenue: $1,330.0M
Net income: -$339.66M
Employees: — (Not disclosed)
Peers: FCX, TECK, ERO, IVN
NASDAQ:ITG – ITG, Inc.
The company is an engineering services firm providing end-to-end design, deployment, and maintenance solutions for broadband and utility infrastructure across the U.S. It builds and upgrades networks for wireless carriers, broadband service providers, and data center operators, operating primarily under long-term master service agreements and leveraging its proprietary FUSE360 technology platform.
Price: $16.00
Volume: 19.5M
Raised: $312.2M
For the 12 months ended March 31, 2026:
Revenue: $1,263.39M
Net income: -$8.46M
Employees: 2,900
Peers: DY, MTZ, PWR
🏢 IPO
NASDAQ:LIME – Lime
The company operates a global shared micromobility platform providing short-term e-scooter and e-bike rentals across 230 cities globally. It leverages a vertically integrated platform combining proprietary hardware, software, and tech-enabled operations, supported by a strategic, mutually exclusive integration partnership with Uber.
Price: $25.00
Volume: 7.0M
Raised: $174.0M
For the 12 months ended March 31, 2026:
Revenue: $927.9M
Net income: -$64.6M
Employees: 1,148
Peers: UBER, LYFT
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
SPY's Hourly Turned Long While The Daily Loads The ShortSPY's Hourly Turned Long While The Daily Loads The Short
SPY held its recovery and is pressing the 745-751 zone that has capped it, with the shorter-term trend now pointed up for the first time this cycle. But the daily is doing the opposite - the setup for a downside move keeps building underneath, now loaded four-fifths of the way, even as price grinds higher. The longer-term bullish anchor that has held for months still refuses to break, which is the only reason the short hasn't fired. Price is climbing into resistance while the daily quietly stacks the case against it.
Resistance: 745.34-748 - the band right at price
Key resistance: 751.47-756.68 - the cycle-high cluster
Current price: 745
Support: 740.44 - first shelf below
Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The daily short finally fires. The downside setup is loaded at 4/5 with range and volatility already expanded and the swing low swept - the one thing holding it back is the 221-bar bull read that won't break. If that print cracks and price loses 740.44, the 736.50-732.45 base is the first target, then the 716 floor. The estimated edge on the move reads negative, which is the system's way of saying the loaded short is not a clean setup yet.
The bull anchor holds and price breaks the band. The hourly turned long and dropped its warning flag overnight, so the near-term trend has backing. A clean push through 751 with the daily bull print intact opens the 756 cycle high. The catch is the daily is still in DISBELIEF - price is rising and the conviction engine won't confirm it, so a break higher here is one the system is not standing behind.
The daily has spent two sessions loading a short it won't fire and sitting in DISBELIEF, while the hourly quietly turned long and cleared its own doubt. Same split as yesterday, one notch tighter - the short machinery is fuller, the bull print a day older and still unbroken. It resolves when the 221-bar print either breaks or gets confirmed, and not before.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. $VOO vs Active Management — What 25 Years of Data Actually ShowsThis is not a chart analysis piece. It is context that every market participant should understand before making decisions about how their capital is allocated.
S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA Scorecard, which has tracked active fund manager performance against benchmark indices for 25 years, released its year-end 2025 data last month. 79% of all actively managed large-cap US equity funds underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. Over 20 years, the figure is approximately 92%. Over 15 years, zero out of 22 US equity categories had a majority of active managers outperforming.
What this means for traders and investors using TradingView
The platforms and tools available to retail investors today, real-time charting, technical analysis, moving average systems, volume analysis, momentum indicators, represent something the data above does not capture. The SPIVA data tracks passive stock-picking mutual fund managers, not systematic technical traders using defined rule-based entry and exit frameworks.
A systematic trader who uses the 200-week and 50-week EMA structure to identify structural entry points in quality assets, applies a defined stop-loss methodology, and scales out at verified Fibonacci extension targets, is doing something structurally different from an active fund manager trying to pick stocks based on fundamental research and market calls.
The data on active fund manager underperformance does not invalidate systematic technical trading methodology. It invalidates the specific practice of paying a professional to pick stocks on your behalf in the hope of beating an index, which is a different activity entirely.
The relevant implication for portfolio construction
A low-cost index fund tracking the S&P 500 such as AMEX:VOO at 0.03% annual expense has outperformed 92% of actively managed alternatives over 20 years. That makes it a rational core holding for the long-term portion of any portfolio.
Systematic technical strategies applied to timing and entry around structural levels such as the 200-week EMA are additive to that core, not a replacement for it. The two approaches are not in competition. They serve different functions in a well-constructed portfolio.
Understand the data. Use it to make better decisions about how you allocate capital. That is the only reason to publish it here.
Not financial advice. All commentary is for educational purposes only. 
Education
Long
SPY Eyes Renewal of Uptrend Following Corrective PhaseThe short‑term Elliott Wave outlook for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) indicates that the cycle from the March 31 low concluded at $760.4 in wave (1). Following this advance, the corrective phase in wave (2) appears to have ended at $716.55, as reflected in the 45‑minute chart. For confirmation of a sustained bullish cycle, the ETF must decisively break above the prior wave (1) peak at $760.4. Such a move would eliminate the risk of a double correction and strengthen the case for renewed upward momentum.
The internal structure of wave (2) unfolded as a classic zigzag pattern. Wave A terminated at $721.23, while wave B reached $756.68. Subsequently, wave C declined to $716.55, completing the corrective sequence in higher degree. From that point, the ETF has turned upward in wave (3). Within this advance, wave ((i)) ended at $739.89, followed by a modest pullback in wave ((ii)) that concluded at $732.09. These developments suggest that the instrument is building a constructive base for further gains.
In the near term, as long as price action remains above $716.55, dips are expected to find support in either three or seven swings.The implication is that buyers are likely to defend key levels, thereby sustaining upward pressure. A decisive break above $760.4 would confirm the resumption of the bullish trend and open the path toward higher targets consistent with wave (3) progression. 
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Short
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I Lost 7 Funded Accounts. I’m Still Not Changing My System“Six losses mean the strategy has stopped working.”
That is what your head tells you when the red stretch lasts longer than expected.
By 19 June, my futures trading was down 6R for the month. I had lost seven funded accounts during the drawdown. My win rate had fallen from around 20% at the start of the year to 17.5%.
Then an A+ gold and silver setup appeared at 11am.
I was at the gym.
I missed it completely.
“Maybe the system is no longer working. Maybe I need to change something.”
The setup at 11am
The context was clean. My direction was right. Gold and silver gave the setup I had been waiting for.
I was not in front of the screen when it happened.
Could I catch every valid setup?
Yes. I could sit at the screen for 16 hours a day and try.
That is not a real solution.
Live trading has costs that do not appear clearly in a clean backtest. You miss winners. You miss losers. Sometimes you take the valid trade, get stopped, and watch price run in your direction without you.
By that point in June, I had missed two runners. My futures results were down 6R. I had lost seven funded accounts during the same drawdown.
! [ ]
If I judged the system from those headlines alone, changing it would feel reasonable.
But those headlines do not tell me whether the edge has stopped working.
The numbers look broken
My system has a low win rate.
It was around 20% at the start of 2026. By 19 June, it was around 17.5%. My equity curve was roughly flat across the last 50 trades.
That can feel like failure when you are living through it trade by trade.
Loss.
Break-even.
Another loss.
Then the winner appears while you are away from the screen.
This is where you usually start editing the system.
A tighter stop. An earlier entry. A new confirmation. Maybe a second strategy so there are more chances to trade.
But the recent result does not tell you what needs changing. It only tells you what happened.
You still need to know whether you followed the tested rules, whether missed setups changed the live sample and whether the current drawdown is unusual for the system.
! [ ]
Without those answers, I would be changing the system because I feel uncomfortable, not because the data tells me to.
Backtests don’t go to the gym
The backtest I am comparing against gives me a cleaner trading environment.
It does not miss a trade because I am at the gym.
It does not hesitate.
It does not have a life outside trading.
My original test also did not account for the same spread, slippage and missed trades that occur during live execution.
Live trading includes all of them.
That does not make the backtest useless. It means your live journal must measure the gap between the test and the real world.
If your backtest assumes every valid setup is taken, but your schedule means you miss some of them, your live results are measuring a different sample.
The answer is not automatically to stop going to the gym or watch the chart all day.
The answer is to record the setups you missed.
Otherwise, your results tell you only what happened to the trades you took. They do not show how the complete system performed.
Count the missing trades
When a valid setup appears and you miss it, add it to your journal.
Record the setup, planned entry, stop and result. Mark clearly that it was missed. Record why you missed it.
Do the same for missed losers.
Do not collect only the runners that would have saved the month.
If you record only missed winners, you create a new fantasy dataset. It tells you that your life keeps stealing profit from you while hiding every loss you avoided by being away.
You need the full sample.
After enough trades, you can answer the useful question.
Is the tested edge failing, or is live execution producing a different sample?
A broken rule needs an execution fix.
If your schedule makes you miss too many valid setups, change how you monitor them.
If the system is still performing inside its tested range, changing it might create a problem that was not there before.
A mistake is different
I am not saying every loss should be ignored.
In May, I made an operational mistake that cost 13R.
That needed a review because my execution broke.
Two days later, I took the next valid MNQ setup. I followed the same management rules. The trade ran 16.19R before reversing. I secured 4.6R.
I did not trail tighter to recover the 13R. Tighter trailing was not my rule.
The operational mistake and the normal drawdown needed different reviews.
One involved broken execution. The other could happen while the system was working as tested.
If you treat both as proof that the strategy is dead, you will keep changing rules after every painful stretch. You will never leave one system untouched long enough to judge it properly.
Check before you change
Before changing your strategy after a drawdown, answer three questions.
1. Did the trades follow the rules you tested?
2. Did you record the valid setups you missed, including the losers?
3. Is the current result outside the range your backtest prepared you for?
If you cannot answer those questions, you do not yet have enough evidence to change the strategy.
Record the missing data first.
My June numbers were uncomfortable.
Down 6R. Seven funded accounts lost during the drawdown. Two missed runners. A 17.5% win rate. Roughly flat across the last 50 trades.
They affected my mood a little. I would be lying if I said otherwise.
They did not give me permission to trade the next setup differently.
If your journal records only the trades you took, fix that before changing your system. You need the complete sample before deciding whether your edge is broken.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. 
Long
Short
SPY's Daily Flipped Short Into The Bounce It Just MadeSPY's Daily Flipped Short Into The Bounce It Just Made
SPY snapped 1.65% off the 716 floor and ran back to 742, but the daily picture turned bearish into the move for the first time this cycle. The buyers who defended the lows are still on record - the longer-term bullish read that has held for months refuses to break - while a fresh shorter-term signal now points down. Price is rising and the underlying conviction will not confirm it. A market that climbs while its own internals argue with the move is not a clean trend, it's a standoff, and 745 is where it gets decided.
Resistance: 745.34 - the shelf right above price
Key resistance: 751.47-756.68 - the cluster that capped the cycle high
Current price: 742
Support: 740.44-736.50 - the recovery shelf
Key support: 731.04 - last week's structure
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The daily short confirms. The thesis fires only when the 220-bar bull print finally cracks. Watch for rejection in the 745-751 band and a loss of 736.50 - that opens 731, then a retest of the 716 floor. RCZ sits at the 94th percentile, meaning a range expansion is coming, and SwLo Swept plus Range Exp already read YES, so the machinery is loaded short and waiting on the standing print to give.
The bull print holds and the DISBELIEF resolves up. DISBELIEF means price is moving while the conviction engine won't sign off, which cuts both ways. If the 220-bar bull read holds and buyers follow through, price reclaims 745 toward 751-756. This is the weaker path right now - the Hourly bull print is carrying an ACTIVE HiSwp anti-signal, so even the recovery is flagged suspect. A bounce neither timeframe trusts is not one to lean on.
The system is internally split for the first time this cycle - a daily that just flipped MEDIUM SHORT against a 220-bar bull print that won't decay, with Short Score still 0/3. The short is loaded but not triggered. It fires the session the bull print breaks, and not before.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Is Gold's Rally Dead, or Coiled for $7,000?Gold's rally is not dead, but it has cooled sharply. After peaking near $5,589 in late January 2026, the metal corrected about 25% and now trades around $4,200 to $4,500, a slide that included its worst month since 2013. The cause is cyclical rather than structural. A hawkish Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts in 2026, and possibly hikes if energy-driven inflation persists, while elevated real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A firmer dollar and a retreat in ETF and speculative demand have added to the pressure.
Yet the floor under gold has rarely been firmer, which is why this looks like consolidation rather than collapse. Central banks have become the dominant, price-insensitive buyers, purchasing more than 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 through 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025, roughly double the pre-2022 norm. They buy as policy, not as a trade, and they do not sell on weak days. Combined with accelerating de-dollarization, with BRICS nations now holding 17.4% of global reserves and gold overtaking the euro as the second-largest reserve asset, plus US debt above $36 trillion, that demand has turned the $4,300 to $4,500 zone into structural support rather than a ceiling.
That tension defines the price debate. The mainstream base case for end-2026 clusters between roughly $4,900 and $6,300, with Goldman Sachs near $4,900, UBS at $5,500, and J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo around $6,000 to $6,300. The $7,000 headline is a real forecast, but a conditional one. UBS sees $7,200 only if geopolitical risks escalate materially, and Bank of America's $8,000 is a 2027 bull case. Reaching $7,000 requires a fresh catalyst, renewed Fed easing, a geopolitical shock, or a return of ETF inflows, not merely the structural bid already in place.
The honest read is that the rally is neither dead nor charging to $7,000 today. It is consolidating, pinned between a cyclical ceiling and a structural floor, waiting for a catalyst to break the deadlock. The asymmetry is what matters for investors. The downside looks limited because price-insensitive central banks keep absorbing dips, while the upside to $7,000 depends on the Fed pivoting or geopolitics re-escalating. The signals to watch are real yields, the Fed's path, ETF flows, and the resolution of the Iran conflict. Until one of those turns, gold grinds sideways on a firm floor, a coiled spring rather than a dead rally. Long 
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