Short
SPY at a Key Inflection Point – Will Bulls Defend Support?
SPY spent most of the afternoon moving lower after failing to hold above the 760 area. The rally attempt earlier in the session was rejected, and sellers gradually regained control into the close.
While the broader trend remains constructive on higher timeframes, the short-term structure has weakened and now sits directly on a major support zone heading into June 2.
Technical Overview
SPY reached an intraday high near 760 before reversing lower throughout the afternoon. Price eventually stabilized near 756, where buyers began defending an important support area.
The current chart shows a failed breakout attempt followed by a controlled pullback into support. The next session will likely determine whether this is simply a healthy retracement or the beginning of a larger correction.
Key Levels to Watch
Support:
756
755
750
Resistance:
758
760
763
765
766
Bullish Scenario
The bulls need to continue defending the 756 support zone.
If buyers can reclaim 758, momentum may begin shifting back toward the upside. A breakout above 760 would likely target the next resistance cluster near 763 and 765.
Should SPY regain 760 and hold it, dealer positioning could support a move toward the upper resistance levels.
Bearish Scenario
A loss of 756 would be the first warning sign.
Below that level, sellers could target 755 and eventually the major downside objective near 750. A break beneath 750 would likely increase volatility and invite additional downside pressure.
Options Positioning & GEX Perspective
The options structure provides one of the clearest roadmaps for tomorrow's session.
Current positioning shows:
• High Volume Level (HVL): 756
• Major support: 750
• Resistance levels: 758, 760, 763, 765
• Strongest upside target: 766
One notable shift is that put activity currently outweighs call activity, suggesting market participants have become more defensive after today's late-session weakness.
From a positioning standpoint:
• Above 756 = support remains intact.
• Above 758 = bullish momentum improves.
• Above 760 = potential acceleration toward 763-765.
• Below 756 = increased risk of testing 750.
The HVL sitting directly at current price makes 756 the most important level for tomorrow's session. Expect market makers and institutional flows to pay close attention to this area.
Outlook for June 2
SPY enters tomorrow at a critical decision point.
The chart shows short-term weakness, but price remains directly above the most important support level on the positioning map. As long as 756 holds, bulls still have an opportunity to regain control and challenge 760 again.
My bias remains neutral above 756 and bearish below it.
For traders, the battle between 756 support and 760 resistance will likely determine the market's direction for the next move.
Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Let price confirm the next trend before committing capital.
Long
Long
Long 
IBIT vs QQQ: Crypto Isn't Driving Any FurtherWhile semiconductors are setting the pace for the entire risk-on market, crypto once again looks like an overheated narrative that fizzled out faster than it accelerated.
In early 2024, the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs provided a powerful emotional boost, but it proved short-lived. Then came the Trump rally from November 2024 to October 2025, when the market was abuzz with slogans about the "crypto capital of the world" and the "crypto czar."
But in reality, it turned out to be exactly what it sounded like: blah, blah, blah.
Then Trump himself quickly shifted to semiconductors "on the fly".
IBIT/QQQ doesn't just show crypto's weakness—it shows a leadership shift.
Now the main point is clear: crypto is no longer driving anymore. It doesn't set the market tone, doesn't drive risk appetite, and doesn't appear to be an asset capable of consistently outperforming the broader market. Semiconductors, however, now are a driving force.
They have become new real driver of this cycle: liquidity, growth, the AI story, structural demand, and much stronger relative dynamics.
Against this backdrop, NASDAQ:IBIT looks like a tired old toy, less like a leader and more like a lagging sector trade.
This is clearly visible on the chart. The IBIT/QQQ ratio has already broken its previous structure, broken out of the channel, and continues to slide toward historically weak zones.
This isn't a random pullback, but a loss of relative strength.
The RSI also confirms the picture: momentum is weak, demand is sluggish, and buyers are in no hurry to return crypto's premium against the Nasdaq.
The main point here is simple. The market always chooses what really works, not what's most hyped in the media.
Crypto had its moment of glory this cycle, but it wasn't enough to maintain its lead over QQQ. Moreover, compared to semiconductors, the crypto story looks increasingly secondary and less convincing.
Conclusion:
IBIT/QQQ remains in a bearish structure, and almost everyone who bought IVIT has fallen behind the market.
Crypto is no longer surging, and the market has essentially digested and discarded all the political blah-blah-blah slogans about "a crypto capital", "institutionals" and "a crypto czar of the world" as noise.
Long
Long
Short
Research 01.06/2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +1.49 +0.20%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +0.97 +0.13%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
09:45 USA – S&P Manufacturing PMI
10:00 USA – ISM Manufacturing Employment
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:SAIC
Other news:
NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:MSFT Unveils First PC Chips At Computex 2026 / other PC chipmakers stocks declined NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:QCOM
LSE:BRK -B Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire NYSE:TMHC in an all-cash deal with a total enterprise value of approximately $8.5 billion or $72.50 per share in cash, the companies announced Sunday.
Barclays’ Fresh Bull Call on NYSE:IBM Highlights Quantum Potential, Retail Eyes $400
Software stocks rallied broadly on Monday after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dismissed concerns that the industry faces disruption from advanced AI tools. NASDAQ:PLTR NYSE:ORCL NYSE:NOW NASDAQ:TEAM NASDAQ:APP NASDAQ:WDAY NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:ADBE NYSE:SNOW NASDAQ:DDOG NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:PANW NYSE:HUBS NASDAQ:WDAY NYSE:VEEV
NASDAQ:CDNS Unveils Industry’s First Fully Autonomous Virtual Engineer for Chip Design, powered by NVIDIA
NYSE:HPE Introduces CPU Server with NVIDIA Vera CPU, Purpose-built for Agentic AI
Shares of NASDAQ:NBIS jumped after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised the company during his keynote at the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan.
NASDAQ:CRWV Insiders Unload $107 Million in Stock
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:MSTR SOLD BTC FOR THE FIRST TIME
NASDAQ:OCS - Eye Drop Trial For Diabetic Vision Loss Misses Target
NASDAQ:ASTS , NASDAQ:RKLB , NYSE:RDW , NASDAQ:LUNR Slip Overnight: SpaceX IPO Hype Loses Orbit After Valuation Target Reportedly Falls Below $2 Trillion
Investors are losing interest in optical manufacturer's stocks NASDAQ:LITE NYSE:COHR NASDAQ:AAOI NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:AXTI
NASDAQ:CEG Announces Secondary Public Offering of 11,000,000 shares
‼️ Additional
FedEx Freight Holding Compan GETTEX:FDXF today announced the completion of its spin-off from NYSE:FDX establishing FedEx Freight as an independent, publicly traded company and focused leader in the North American less-than-truckload industry.
Last week, hedge funds bought US equities at the fastest pace in six months — Goldman.
US inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target for 62 consecutive months and began accelerating after the start of Operation “Epic Fury” in Iran.
📋 List of tickers involved:
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:SAIC NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:QCOM NYSE:BRK.B NYSE:TMHC NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:PLTR NYSE:ORCL NYSE:NOW NASDAQ:TEAM NASDAQ:APP NASDAQ:WDAY NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:ADBE NYSE:SNOW NASDAQ:DDOG NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:PANW NYSE:HUBS NYSE:VEEV NASDAQ:CDNS NYSE:HPE NASDAQ:NBIS NASDAQ:CRWV NASDAQ:MSTR CRYPTOCAP:BTC NASDAQ:OCS NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:RKLB NYSE:RDW NASDAQ:LUNR NASDAQ:LITE NYSE:COHR NASDAQ:AAOI NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:AXTI NASDAQ:CEG GETTEX:FDXF NYSE:FDX
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
Long
Long 
Long 
Weekly Bias — 1 JuneThe April low at $555.60 remains the anchor
Price is sitting above the 100% extension of $722
Above the 20d MA (~$709)
Above all major trend structure
Just beneath the 123.6% extension (~$761)
This is still an expansion phase
Trend remains higher highs + higher lows
Every pullback has been shallow
Every consolidation has resolved higher
No bearish market structure shift exists
The only real warning remains price new highs while MACD not making equivalent new highs
This is a bearish divergence, but the divergence is occurring while price continues making higher highs & holding premium is usually a warning of future weakness, not an immediate signal
AMEX:SPY remains stronger than most traders appreciate
The important thing is AMEX:SPY hasn't rejected its breakout
Makes a broad market collapse unlikely near-term
AMEX:IWM remains the weak link
AMEX:IWM is participating, but lagging
This says breadth is improving, but unhealthy
Means eventual pullbacks may be sharper than normal
One thing hasn't changed — volume is still declining
NASDAQ:QQQ 37.5M vs 20-day average ~39M
AMEX:SPY 55M vs 20-day average ~47M
This isn't a panic-buying environment
It's a grind higher
Generally means that trend persists
Pullbacks become more violent when they finally arrive
Bullish
Falling yields
Compressed VIX
Strong semis
Strong software
Weekly BOS
No bearish MSS
Bearish
Volume
AMEX:IWM lagging
Daily RSI stretched
MACD flattening
Upside
~$742
~$745
~$761
~$786
Downside
$735
$722
$709
$690
Market gets the catalyst it wants → Hormuz reopening/no escalation (65%)
$738 → $742
$742 breaks → $745 → $750 → $761
Then $761 → $745 (pullback begins)
Bull trap (20%)
~$742 gets swept
Price prints $743–$745, then rejects
$745 → $735 → $730
Unexpected macro headline — immediate risk-off (15%)
$735 fails
Then $730 → $722 → $709
3 levels matter more than anything else
1. ~$742
Liquidity above
If this breaks & holds, path of least resistance becomes $745 → $750 → $761
2. $735
Short-term character level
Below this momentum begins deteriorating
3. $722
The major trend-defense level
If buyers defend $722, the bull trend remains intact
Given CBOE:IGV strength, NASDAQ:SMH leadership, falling yields, VIX compression & bullish MSS
Highest conviction path remains $738 → $742 → $745 → $750 → $761
Followed by $761 → $745 → $735 before the market decides whether it wants another leg toward the 138.2% extension near $786, or a deeper correction toward the $709–$722 value area
The biggest clue is that despite all the macro uncertainty (Hormuz, oil, rates), NASDAQ:QQQ still couldn't attract meaningful sellers beneath $735 which suggests institutions are still buying dips
Historically, NASDAQ:QQQ doesn't stay 4-5% above the 20d MA forever
The 20d MA acts like a rubber band
Right now the rubber band is stretched
Normally before a 20d MA test you see price breaks structure ($741 → $735), then the 20d MA Alternatively, price keeps climbing ($741 → $750 → $761), then eventually pulls back to a rising 20d MA
This is what happened repeatedly during 2020, 2021 & AI rally 2023-24
The moving average rose to price rather than price falling to it immediately
The current structure resembles a late-stage momentum trend where price keeps extending, 20d MA keeps chasing until a catalyst appears, then price falls quickly, 20d MA catches up & the touch finally occurs
The rising wedge is important
A lot of wedges don't break immediately
Often they do final thrust → exhaustion → breakdown
The final thrust frequently overshoots what traders think is "reasonable"
$741 → $750 → $761 before the 20d MA test
What makes me think a pullback is nearer than before?
Daily RSI ≈ 77, Stoch ≈ 93, MACD histogram flattening & volume declining
1. Immediate pullback 35%
$738 → $730 → $722
20d MA starts catching up
2. Final extension first 50%
$738 → $742 → $750 → $761
Then $761 → $735 → $720
Eventually touching the rising 20d MA
3. Persistent melt-up 15%
$741 → $761 → $786
20d MA keeps rising and price never directly touches it
This is the least likely path, but not impossible if yields continue falling & liquidity remains abundant
This is the part I believe many traders underestimate
Current ~$738
20d MA ~$709
Fair value roughly $720-$725
Not necessarily all the way down to $709 immediately
If I had to guess the first significant retracement level, I'd actually favor $722-$730 before a full 20d MA touch
2 things would convince me of an immediate pullback
~$742 gets swept & rejected = bull trap + daily reversal candle
NASDAQ:QQQ loses $735 & cannot reclaim it
I'd start targeting $730 → $722 → $709 (20d MA) much more aggressively given a 20d test is increasingly likely over the next few weeks, but the charts don't suggest it must happen before the market raids the obvious liquidity sitting above ~$742 because the market often tags the liquidity first & only then delivers the correction everyone has been expecting SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)SPY continues to maintain one of the most constructive trend structures on the chart, with price holding above all major moving averages.
The 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs are all trending higher
The EMA stack remains fully aligned, reflecting strong trend participation across multiple time horizons
Price continues to trade above key moving averages, keeping the broader structure intact
Momentum conditions remain supportive:
RSI is currently near 74, holding in the upper range while maintaining slight upward momentum
Elevated RSI readings continue to reflect strong participation, though monitoring for signs of exhaustion remains important
OBV continues to show constructive progress, suggesting accumulation and participation remain supportive of the current trend
This combination of trend alignment, momentum, and participation continues to support a healthy structural backdrop.
What I'm Watching 👀
Whether SPY can continue holding above the rising 10/20 EMA cluster on any short-term pullbacks
If the 50 EMA continues to accelerate higher, reinforcing broader trend alignment
Whether RSI can maintain strength without developing meaningful bearish divergence
Continued confirmation from OBV as price pushes near recent highs
At the moment, structure remains constructive, with trend, momentum, and participation largely moving in the same direction. Monitoring how price responds to any periods of consolidation or pullback remains important as extension conditions continue to develop.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. SPY | The 4 Horsemen of the 75% Crash | SHORTAre you ready for the Great Reset?
If you've been following the Divergence Seeker journey, you know we don’t just look at the ticker - we look at the structural rot beneath the surface. We’re currently staring down a potential 75% decline in the S&P 500. This isn't fear-mongering; it’s a mathematical "mean reversion" to the reality our current economy actually supports.
Here is the roadmap of how we get there and why the volume "spikes" you see on your charts are the footprints of the big money getting trapped.
The 4 Horsemen of the 75% Crash
To see the S&P 500 back at the 1,500 level, these four collisions have to happen at once. (Spoiler: They already are.)
The Energy Blockade: The 2026 Iran War has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't "transitory" anymore. With oil locked at triple digits, the "Silicon Dreams" of cheap tech growth are being crushed by the high cost of physical reality.
The Gravity of Rates: High interest rates are the gravity of the financial world. As the 10-Year Treasury yield pushes toward 6%, the high multiples we paid for tech in 2024 become impossible to justify. We are moving from a 25x "frenzy" back to an 8x "depression" multiple.
The Credit Wall: Trillions in corporate debt are rolling over right now at these massive 2026 rates. The "zombie companies" that lived on free money are hitting a wall, and when they default, the credit markets freeze just like they did in 2008.
The Survival Pivot: We are shifting from "software and AI" to "food, energy, and defense." If you aren't positioned in hard assets, you’re holding a bag of digital air.
Decoding the Volume Spikes: The Trail We’ve Followed
Every time the market hits a breaking point, the volume tells the story. Here’s how we got here:
2020: The Algorithmic Panic
Remember the COVID spike? That wasn't just people being scared; it was the "Volatility-Targeting" algorithms being forced to sell everything at once. It was a massive liquidity trap that only cleared when the Fed flooded the zone with cash.
2022: The Narrative Death
The volume spike in early 2022 was the sound of the "Transitory Inflation" lie finally dying. As Russia invaded Ukraine, the smart money ditched tech and rotated into Energy and Grains (WEAT) on record volume.
2025: The Policy Shock
The 20% "flash correction" in 2025 was driven by the Tariff Tantrum. Overnight, the market had to re-price every global supply chain. The volume showed us that the "old way" of global trade was officially over.
2026: The Bond Rout (Right Now)
What we are seeing today is Forced Liquidation. As the Iran conflict escalates, energy prices are forcing a global bond sell-off. The volume is peaking because passive index funds are being forced to dump their crashing tech holdings to cover the carnage.
The Seeker’s Edge
A 75% drop sounds terrifying to the average investor, but for us, it's the ultimate Divergence. While the masses are trapped in the "Silicon Dreams" of the past, we are watching the charts for the pivot into the next supercycle.
Stay sharp. The "DS Eye" sees what the crowd misses. Short 
Long
