Rolling: SMH August 21st 500/510/695/705 IC... to the September 18th 470/480/600/610 for a .93 credit.
4.34 net credits collected.
Comments: I originally opened the 500/510/695/705 for a 3.41 credit. (See Post Below). With the short call vertical converging on worthless, the put side in test, and only 21 days to go, I rolled out the call side, then the put side such that I received a net credit.
I still have the August 21st 470/480/650/660 on, which I'm going to leave alone for now, since it's not in test, and the short call vertic
ETF market
PATH TO HIGHER LEVELS STILL INTACTTechnical Read on This Chart
Current price: ~719.94, sitting just below the 724.76 pivot, with price having pulled back from a rejection near 737.62.
Structure
1. Diamond top/consolidation (teal outline, left side of chart)
Price rallied hard off the 656.13 area, then chopped sideways in a widening-then-narrowing range roughly between 695 and 748 โ the classic diamond shape. Diamonds that form after an uptrend often resolve as reversal/distribution patterns, and that's what played out here: p
Next Bitcoin top by Average. If we accept June 30, 2026 and ~$58,558 as the eventual 2026 cycle bottom, then May 29, 2029 is a reasonable historical-cycle target for the next Bitcoin peak.
The important part is that we're applying the same type of calculation consistently: historical Bitcoin tops have occurred roughly 1,060 days after the major cycle bottom.Analysis specifically finds the last three tops were about 1,060 days after their preceding lows.
Using your working bottom:
Bottom: June 30, 2026
Price: ~$58,558
+1,060
Update on the MarketsHey everyone, I hope you are well. I'm not going to have a lot of time to do videos as I need to catch up with work, but I wanted to give an update on what things look like to me at this time.
I believe a top may be in place. Of course, If they get over the high of August 13-14, it's wrong and I will update. Anyway, I give my reasons why I think this in the video.
I forgot to mention the VIX which is back into it's previous consolidation zone after a small breakdown.
Good luck!
SPY 24H: Major Support Test Ahead โ Breakout or Head & ShouldersLooking at the 24H chart on SPY, weโre approaching a major fork in the road as price tests the main green trendline support coming off the April lows.
Right now, weโre consolidating around the $757.74 โ $769.42 zone. How price handles this trendline will set the tone for the rest of the year into early 2027. Here are the two main plays Iโm tracking:
Key Levels
Overhead Resistance / Target 1: $835.67 โ $843.22
Trendline Support / Key Line in the Sand: $757.74
Dead Cat Bounce / Right Shou
SPY Broke Its Coil Up Toward 771.58.SPY Broke Its Coil Up Toward 771.58.
The four-session coil resolved up. SPY broke out of the 765.71 range and is trading 768.70, pushing toward the 771.58 ceiling - lifted with the broad tape after NVDA's earnings. Monday through Wednesday's compression gave way to the upside, and price is now testing the top of its two-week range with the conviction surface turned green. A constructive breakout, but 771.58 is the ceiling that still has to give. Neutral.
Resistance: 771.58 - the range ceiling,
Research 27.08.2026๐ Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.42 0.45%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +7.51 1.06%(pre/m)
๐ Economic News:
08:30 USA โ Goods Trade Balance
08:30 USA โ Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 USA โ Retail Inventories
08:30 USA โ Wholesale Inventories
20:00 USA โ Jackson Hole Symposium (Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speach)
๐ Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:OKTA NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:NVDA NYSE:VEEV NASDAQ:NTNX NASDAQ:PURR NYSE:DG $P NYSE:BBY TSX:CM NAS
$WEATOverall AMEX:WEAT very bullish the real tell was that 4th wave as a running flat c=0.618 a (not shown fro clarity but c pulling up well short of 100% ext of a )so 5th wave standard target 24.5 but that may only be one of 5 so pullbacks to be bought . Fits in well with macro picture Hormuz fertilizer increases impacting next years crop and Russia damage to grain storage sites in Odessa
$SPY & $SPX โ Levels and Scenarios for Thursday, August 27, 2026๐ฎ AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX โ Levels and Scenarios for Thursday, August 27, 2026
๐ Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 208K | Previous: 206K
All Day | Jackson Hole Symposium
โ ๏ธ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
๐ #UnemploymentClaims #JacksonHole
# SPY Aug 27: $770 Is the First Real Test
SPY is giving us a pretty clean setup for Thursday.
The daily chart still looks constructive. The bigger breakout above the old descending resistance is holding, and price has not fallen back into the prior range.
After pulling back from the recent high near **$781.81**, SPY found buyers again and is trading around **$769 to $770** overnight.
That puts price right into the first area I care about.
The 15-minute chart is strong, but it is also getting stretched.
SPY made a sharp move from
S&P 500 Trading Idea | Technical Analysisnstrument: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Time frame: 15-minute chart
Current price: 765.06
Market structure: Price is consolidating between a marked demand zone and supply zone.
Bullish setup
Entry zone: 764.55โ764.85, near the demand zone.
Stop-loss: Below 764.40, or below the demand-zone low after allowing for a small buffer.
Targets:
TP1: 766.00โ766.10, near the supply zone.
TP2: 766.77.
TP3: 767.73.
Extended target: 768.56.
Condition: Look for a bullish rejection candle, higher low, o
Research 26.08.2026๐ Markets:
AMEX:SPY -0.47 -0.06%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -1.31 -0.18%(pre/m)
๐ Economic News:
08:30 USA โ PCE Price Index
08:30 USA โ Corporate Profits
08:30 USA โ Durable Goods Orders
08:30 USA โ GDP Growth Rate
08:30 USA โ Personal Income/Spending
10:30 USA โ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change
๐ Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:PLAB NYSE:ANF NYSE:SJM NYSE:DCI NASDAQ:SMTC NYSE:HEI NYSE:BOX NASDAQ:TRMD
Other news:
Akeso logs Pha
SPY Is Still Coiling At 765.71.SPY Is Still Coiling At 765.71.
SPY continues to chop at 765.71, trading 765.60, boxed in the 762 to 771.58 range for a fourth session. The short-term surface reads bearish, but a high-conviction bear announcement from 64 bars back has not resolved, and price simply refuses to leave the pivot. The range persists and the compression builds. Nothing has broken. Neutral.
Resistance: 771.58 - the range ceiling
Key resistance: 773.82 - shelf above
Current price: 765.60
Support: 762.57 - the range f
$SPY & $SPX โ Levels and Scenarios for Wednesday, August 26, 202๐ฎ AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX โ Levels and Scenarios for Wednesday, August 26, 2026
๐ Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
8:30 AM | Prelim GDP q/q | Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.5%
8:30 AM | Prelim GDP Price Index q/q | Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
โ ๏ธ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
๐ #CorePCE #GDP #Inflation
SPY Midweek Update โ The Market Is Running Out of RoomWe came into this week with several possible paths mapped for SPY.
Two sessions in, the market still hasnโt committed to one.
That does not mean nothing has changed.
It means the evidence has narrowed the battlefield.
SPY is currently trading around 766, sitting directly in the middle of a cluster of levels that have repeatedly mattered:
764 Projected AOA
765 Projected AOA
766 Projected AOA
PDH near 767
769 Projected AOA
That is a lot of structure packed into a relatively small area.
And
Managing Risk: Scaling Out of Leveraged Crypto PositionsOver the past two sessions, the focus has been derisking and locking in gains across leveraged crypto instruments.
Profit Taking:
Actively scaled out of NASDAQ:TXXD and AMEX:XBNB into strength while leaving small trailing positions to capture any remaining upside.
Core Reductions:
Closed the majority of positions in AMEX:BITU and $ETHT.
Current Exposure:
Still holding CBOE:DOJE with defined risk parameters and spot Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Missed Moves:
Passed on CRYPTOCAP:XRP and CR
X
Research 25.08.2026๐ Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.60 0.47%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +6.76 0.96%(pre/m)
๐ Economic News:
08:15 USA โ ADP Employment Change Weekly
09:00 USA โ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
10:00 USA โ Consumer Confidence
10:00 USA โ New Home Sales
16:30 USA โ API Crude Oil Stock Change
๐ Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:GFI TSX:BNS
Other news:
Raymond James upgraded NASDAQ:AMD from Outperform to Strong Buy and lifted its price target to $641 from $565.
NASDAQ:S
SPY Reclaimed 765.71 - Back In The Range.SPY Reclaimed 765.71 - Back In The Range.
SPY reclaimed the 765.71 pivot it was pinned to and is trading 766.56, chopping in the 765 to 771.58 range. Monday's read had it defending this level, and it did - the higher-timeframe conviction is now strong and bullish, though the hourly is stretched with a high-sweep active. Still range-bound: 765.71 reclaimed as support, 771.58 the ceiling. A constructive reclaim, not a breakout. Neutral.
Resistance: 771.58 - the range ceiling
Key resistance: 773.























