HOW-TO: Stay With the Clean TrendSPY — 15-minute chart
This chart shows a clean HOLD SHORT example using The Confirmation Project.
Price remained below VWAP and the fast moving averages while the dashboard showed:
• HOLD SHORT
• Bearish bias
• Short active
• Entry Score at confirmation level
• Bars In Trade: 3
The lesson is to wait for confirmation, then stay with the move while price continues to remain below EMA20 or VWAP.
This helps the trader avoid exiting too early during a clean directional move, while still respecting the script’s exit guidance if the trend begins to fail.
This is an educational decision-support example, not a recommendation to buy or sell SPY.
ETF market
TLT LongDemand Zone confirmation
Entry 83.2
no Stop
Target 87
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader. About 25% of my trades had been stopped quickly.
TLT BFF (buy for Free)
SellToOpen 2027-01-15 P81, 1.73 (Delta=-0.31)
BuyToOpen 2027-01-15 Call spread C83/88, 1.63 (C83 Delta=0.67)
Allow assignment to accumulate Conservative long term investment.
if P81 could be assigned, same as limit buy at 81.
No stop, buy and hold.
QQQ | Q3 2026 | Day ChartInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ||
MARKET-BEATING SCORE = 8/10
Dividend yield (indicated)
0.43%
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PEGY 0.90 — fairly valued.
EPS growth 36.0% — above-market.
Revenue growing 11.5% YoY — steady.
Gross margin 62.5% — strong moat.
FCF margin 28.4% — real cash generation.
D/E 0.45 — conservative leverage.
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The fund is heavily concentrated in the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks, making it the primary vehicle for investors seeking exposure to AI and digital innovation.
•
QQQ has historically outperformed the S&P 500 over long horizons, notably turning a $10,000 investment at inception into over $125,000 by 2025.
•
The trust maintains a low expense ratio of 0.20%, making it a highly cost-effective way to gain exposure to large-cap growth stocks.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution. **A single candle is a range on a lower timeframe. *Find the range and define its, creation dates, prices, and risk parameters. A range is broken down into 4 candle, which create 6 levels that define the range and illustrate market structure.
Focus only on the first and last candle of each range. The last candle of each type of range has two levels - see FS & Inv. FS Candles below.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED:
When price is above a distribution range, these candles/levels act as support.
(BS) BACKSIDE Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level. high angle accumulation trends, f.v,g's
(FS) FrontSide Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a low angle accumulation trend. The top of Distribution candles are used as support. The bottom of the FrontSide candle is the SwingLow of the range. The FS candle wants to protect the SwingLow. When/if Price Action closes below the SwingLow, the level is invalidated. Find another range to trade.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED: When price is below an accumulation range, these candles/levels act as resistance.
INVERSE BACKSIDE (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level. Creates high angle distribution trends, f.v.g, protects the Inv.FS candle
INVERSE FRONTSIDE (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a low angle distribution trend. The bottom of Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
The top of the Inv.FrontSide candle is the SwingHigh of the range. The Inv.FS candle wants to protect the SwingHigh. When/if Price Action closes above the SwingHigh, the level is invalidated. Find another range to trade.
QQQ just back inside multi-year channel but still not healthyThe blue channel lines illustrate a multi-year range where QQQ typically resides. When the trend breaks below it then bullish times follow, if above then bearish. It has been above it since May 8th with erratic movements around the top channel line. The 15 July failure to break back out of the channel is a long term positive but is quite painful for shareholders in the short term. Trend is confirmed downward after 1st week of July lower highs and lower lows. I propose that the QQQ could continue moving downward until it hits either the bottom of the channel or the 150 SMA (the orange line). I think approx. $665 in the second week of August for a start to a bounce up (geopolitical events aside).
Bearish for next few weeks to one month. If below $665 then $640 is bounce up target.
Bullish after 3rd week of august.
INDY | The time to go long has come- Timeframe: Weekly
- Trade type: Buy stop order
- Price: 43.49
- Take Profit: Open
- Stop Loss: 42.71 (-1.80 %)
Idea: Long on a breakout above last week's high - bullish momentum continuation.
Entry: Buy stop above last week’s high.
Stop-loss: Below the low of the same candle.
If the weekly candle closes below this level, the trade is invalidated.
Take Profit: Trailing stop following the lows of new weekly candles.
$SOXX Attempting a ComebackOptions Expiration Distortion
Volume is key. It’s a metric we give a lot of attention to.
We see a massive volume spike on Friday the 17th. However, it’s a classic quarterly/monthly options expiration noise. Relying on it as pure institutional accumulation is risky when market makers were just rebalancing and rolling delta exposure.
Volume Divergence
The lightened volume bars over the last few sessions after the 17th show buyers aren't aggressively pushing this bounce. It looks more like a low volume drift back toward moving averages than a decisive trend reversal.
Resistance & RSI
Price is attempting to reclaim the short term moving averages, for 3 days now! The RSI downtrend line break is technically intact, but it lacks slope and momentum. A sideways drift in price can artificially break a sharp RSI trendline without actual buying strength.
Conclusion
Limbo. This can go either way…
Breakdown Risk in Consumer Discretionary ETF?The SPDR Select Sector Consumer Discretionary ETF has been rangebound as the broader market rallied, and some traders may see risk of a breakdown.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the apparent rounded top between September and May. The lack of breakout in price contrasts with the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Does that demonstrate a lack of relative strength?
Second, January’s peak was only slightly above the December 2024 high. The result could be viewed as a false breakout.
Third, the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages are essentially on top of each other. That may reflect uncertainty about the longer-term trend, with potential to resolve in a bearish manner.
Finally, traders could eye the March low of $105.19 as initial support.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)
1-year: +7.92%
5-years: +31.36%
10-year: +200.49%
(As of June 30, 2026)
Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
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SPY Is Back In The Middle Of Its Range.SPY Is Back In The Middle Of Its Range.
After the fourth failure at 748, SPY has faded to 743.53 and swept a low - right back into the middle of the range it has held for over a week. The structure is the same as it has been: a bull thesis with top-quartile conviction on the hourly, entry forming, but no ability to close above 748 and no reason to break 740.44 either. The swept low is the one new wrinkle - a liquidity grab near the bottom of the range can precede a bounce. But nothing has triggered. Range between 740.44 and 748, still. Neutral.
Resistance: 747.72 - first level back
Key resistance: 748.00 - the trigger, unbroken in four tries
Current price: 743.53
Support: 740.81 - the swept low
Key support: 740.44 - the range floor
Structural floor: 736.87 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
The swept low bounces and takes another run at 748. If the grab near 740 holds and conviction pushes price back up, this becomes a fifth attempt at the trigger - and each failed test theoretically clears sellers for the eventual break. Top-quartile conviction is still there for it.
The range floor finally gives. Four failures at the top can also mean the range is tired and resolves down. A loss of 740.44 on a close breaks the floor that has held all week and opens 736 and below. That would flip the leanable setup to the short side.
SPY is doing the same thing it has done all week - failing at 748, holding above 740.44, swept a low in between. Until one edge goes on a close, it is a range, and four failures at 748 keep the burden of proof on the bulls.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
Research 23.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY -4.04 -0.54%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -5.08 -0.72%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
08:30 USA – Chicago Fed National Activity Index
08:30 USA – Initial Jobless Claims
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:ALLE $COC NYSE:AMBP NYSE:CLF NYSE:URI NASDAQ:ROP NYSE:NOW NYSE:WST NYSE:CX NYSE:WEX NYSE:LMT NYSE:TECK NYSE:DGX NYSE:TMO NYSE:RTX NASDAQ:POOL NASDAQ:CSX EURONEXT:TTE NASDAQ:HON NYSE:RELX NASDAQ:CMCSA NYSE:WCN NYSE:EQNR
Other news:
NYSE:SKM To Invest 750 Billion Won By 2030 To Launch Sk Hyper, Strengthen Ai Data Center Business
Wall Street brokerage Benchmark remains bullish on NASDAQ:HUT stock.
-- Needham lifts NASDAQ:HUT target to $145 after second Beacon Point AI lease.
Top memory stocks jumped in overnight trading late Wednesday after NASDAQ:GOOGL parent Alphabet, Inc. reported a sharp increase in quarterly capital expenditures and raised the forecast for the full year. : NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:WDC
Shares of AI infrastructure providers rose in the extended session as Alphabet's NASDAQ:GOOGL management indicated on the earnings call that the company would be utilizing third-party providers of computing power to ease constraints. : NASDAQ:NBIS NASDAQ:CRWV
Anthropic will buy a large number of AI chips from NASDAQ:AMD — WSJ.
-- NASDAQ:AMD will invest $5 billion in Anthropic.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:GOOGL NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:TMUS NYSE:ROL NYSE:STM NYSE:MOH NYSE:DOV NASDAQ:QS NSE:INFY NASDAQ:MBLY NASDAQ:HBAN NASDAQ:AAL NYSE:BX NYSE:FCX NYSE:PCG IG:DOW
Other news:
NYSE:NVO Takes Rival NYSE:LLY to Court Over Weight-Loss Ad Claims
AI spending drove Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL to negative free cash flow in Q2 2026 for the first time in the company’s history — earnings report.
Trump’s Boeing NYSE:BA deal with China is under pressure — Politico.
NASDAQ:AMZN is cutting jobs in its AI division.
‼️ Additional
It is time to pass the CLARITY Act — Goldman CEO.
The number of newly registered Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA vehicles in the EU rose 72% in June — ACEA.
The EU approved the Warner Bros. NASDAQ:WBD and Paramount NASDAQ:PSKY merger.
NYSE:JNJ received FDA approval for a soft-tissue surgical robot.
The EU is prepared to introduce countermeasures against the US if tariffs are raised — Politico.
📋 List of tickers involved:
NYSE:ALLE $COC NYSE:AMBP NYSE:CLF NYSE:URI NASDAQ:ROP NYSE:NOW NYSE:WST NYSE:CX NYSE:WEX NYSE:LMT NYSE:TECK NYSE:DGX NYSE:TMO NYSE:RTX NASDAQ:POOL NASDAQ:CSX EURONEXT:TTE NASDAQ:HON NYSE:RELX NASDAQ:CMCSA NYSE:WCN NYSE:EQNR NYSE:SKM NASDAQ:HUT NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:NBIS NASDAQ:CRWV NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:TMUS NYSE:ROL NYSE:STM NYSE:MOH NYSE:DOV NASDAQ:QS NSE:INFY NASDAQ:MBLY NASDAQ:HBAN NASDAQ:AAL NYSE:BX NYSE:FCX NYSE:PCG IG:DOW NYSE:NVO NYSE:LLY NYSE:BA NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:WBD NASDAQ:PSKY NYSE:JNJ
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
Short on XLF🚨 BANKS AT A KILLER ATH: Opening a Short on XLF Before the Middle East Sets Markets on Fire! 🚨
The US financial sector is experiencing absolute euphoria, breaking one all-time high after another. While retail traders are recklessly buying the tops, assuming banks will grow to the sky, we see an extremely stretched rubber band that is threatening to snap. Combined with the escalating tensions in the Middle East, a perfect storm is forming. We are not waiting for a washout—we are meeting it head-on with a surgically precise short.
📉 Overheated Market Hits a Geopolitical Wall
The XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund), which bundles banking giants, has had a textbook run. Over the past three months, it has surged by a massive +8.7%, breaking out to a new all-time high (ATH) in the $56–$56.9 range. By doing so, it has essentially hit the absolute ceiling of its 52-week range. Technically, the chart is extremely overextended and ripe for a correction.
But the main story is unfolding off the charts. The Middle East is in flames, and geopolitical risk is rising rapidly. Why are we shorting banks specifically? By its very nature, the financial sector is the most sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, interest rates, and global stability. The moment fear (risk-off sentiment) takes over the market, banking stocks will take the hit first, as big capital will immediately start fleeing to safety.
🎯 Our Trading Scenario and Key Levels
We are capitalizing on a clear price rejection at the ATH and opening a directional short position. The goal is clear—to ride the panic and technical profit-taking.
Action: Short XLF ETF
Trigger: Rejection from the ATH zone + Middle East escalation
Key Support to Watch: $55.00
Target Profit (TP): $54.00
💡 Impact on Investors and What to Expect Next:
In the coming hours and days, the market's reaction at the $55 level will be absolutely crucial. This is the first anchor point (support). If the market fails to hold it under the pressure of Middle East news, it will trigger an avalanche of stop-losses and profit-taking, which will carry us very quickly and smoothly right to our $54 target.
Don't try to catch a falling knife, and don't bet on endless growth when the rules of the game are changing. Managing risk to the downside is much more profitable right now. The position is loaded; we are monitoring the price action!
SPY BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
SPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 743.21
Target Level: 749.08
Stop Loss: 739.28
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XLU Bullish Divergence: Utilities Are Starting to Show StrengthXLU is showing improving momentum after forming a bullish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator near the June low. More recently, price has held a higher low while Stochastic revisited a lower level—another constructive sign that selling pressure may be weakening.
Price is now testing the $45.60–$45.70 resistance area. A decisive close above this zone could confirm renewed strength and open the way for a continuation toward the previous swing highs. The rising trendline and the $44.40–$44.50 support area remain important for maintaining the current structure.
In the Sniper Alpha framework, we follow a sector-first, stock-second process:
Identify a sector showing improving price structure and momentum.
Screen individual stocks within that sector.
Focus on stocks building strong bases near resistance.
Wait for a confirmed breakout before considering an entry.
Define risk and manage the position with a structured stop plan.
Our screening has already identified several stocks within the Utilities sector showing constructive setups. However, a bullish divergence is an early signal—not confirmation by itself. The next step is to watch whether XLU can break and hold above resistance while the strongest individual names confirm the sector move.
For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of NVDA
K4 failed to break up the neckline of a potential bullish head-shoulder pattern.
It seems that the market will consolidate around the support and then choose to break up or fall down.
If K5 is another long-green candle like K4,
It is likely that another bull run will start here.
If not,
It is likely that the market will fall to test the support for more times.
Chart Pattern Analysis of SOXL.
After the market breaking down the neck line of a potential bearish double top pattern,
K6 is a first test to the neck line,
K7 failed to close at lower price area.
It seems that the market will consolidate around the neckline,
And then, the market will choose to break up or expand down.
I am expecting a fake down of the market at K4.
I am still optimistic to the bullish market.
If the market successfully close upon K1 or successfully retest the support,
It is likely that another bull run will start here.
On the other hand,
If the following candles break down the support,
It is likely that another bull run will start here and accelerate.
$SPY & $SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Thursday, July 23, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Thursday, July 23, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 211K | Previous: 208K
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #UnemploymentClaims #JoblessClaims
Range trading may finish soonI think the last attempt to break the range was today. Since they couldn't hold the breakout, there's a very good chance we go back to the bottom of the range. VIX is still in a falling wedge.
If we break below the range, the target is 7300-7250.
I'm away until Monday - good luck!
Week 30 of 52 | Market Open Update #1AMEX:SPY opened with a cautious tone and is still trading inside the same range highlighted in the pre-market brief.
The market is not showing broad strength. Energy and defensive sectors are holding up better, while technology remains mixed as investors wait for NASDAQ:GOOG NYSE:NOW , NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:TXN after the close.
The main pressure continues to come from elevated Treasury yields and higher oil prices. With the 10-year yield still near 4.6%, investors are not aggressively chasing high-multiple technology names before tonight’s earnings.
SMCI is the clear exception. The stock remains one of the strongest names in the AI infrastructure group after its order and margin update. NVDA and MU have recovered from early weakness, but neither is showing the same level of conviction.
GOOG is trading cautiously ahead of earnings. NOW is also under pressure as investors reduce risk before the report. NASDAQ:MSTR continues to follow Bitcoin, while NASDAQ:ASTS is consolidating after its recent move.
SPY Setup
SPY remains between support and resistance.
Buyers defended the early weakness, but they have not been able to push price above the upper part of the range. Until one side breaks, this is still a consolidation rather than a confirmed directional move.
A break above resistance would favor continuation toward new highs.
A loss of support would increase the probability of a deeper pullback.
What I’m Watching
Whether SPY breaks out of the opening range.
Whether NVDA and MU begin to confirm SMCI’s strength.
Positioning in GOOG and NOW before earnings.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion based on current market conditions. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and invest according to your own risk tolerance.






















