Lol, I'm sorry! Sorry! In retrospect I wish i had warned you guys about today. But chatgpt told me yesterday that a 2% dip this week was a 4-8% chance event and I wasn't confident enough to post.
Good news is, this is crazy. I fully expect us to be back 744+ mon/Tues. If today was real, then everyone is too bearish. We could still undercut Monday but I suspect we realize these levels are too low regardless of cpi and bounce back. If cpi is supportive, I'd say we aim for 756 by weeks end.
Lol...too crazy. We could get a terrible Iran deal any day now. That means some funds add, shorts hold off and we could even get back to ath by fomc. Could. Emphasis could. Too many unknowns. But this was not a broad risk off. At worst, it was unwinding after earnings season, trimming gains. But I even doubt that. Anyway, I'll update next week but, once it stabilizes, there will be long term funds buying more. The structure has not broken. Calls might be chased too much for immediate gap up Monday but yeah. 
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Irrational Exuberance is Back - I Cannot Buy This MarketI am not a perma bear. I believe in equities, innovation, and long-term wealth creation. Markets rise more often than they fall, and betting against human progress is usually a mistake.
But there are times when risk becomes too obvious to ignore. For me, that happened in March 2026. I sold all my stocks because I believed the market had moved from expensive to irrational. Since then, the market has gone parabolic, and missing that rally has been painful.
Even so, I cannot bring myself to buy back in.
The first issue is valuation. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which compares prices to ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, suggests the S&P 500 is among the most expensive markets in modern history. Valuations can stay elevated for a while and may even rise further, but eventually earnings must justify prices. I do not believe they currently do.
The second issue is AI.
I believe AI is a transformative technology. But transformative technologies can still create bubbles. The internet was real in 1999, yet investors paid absurd prices for future profits that often never arrived.
Today, AI is being priced as if massive profits are inevitable and imminent. Yet the costs are enormous: chips, energy, data centers, infrastructure, talent, and ongoing model training. Investors seem focused on the upside while ignoring the economics. AI may change the world, but that does not guarantee attractive returns at current valuations.
The third issue is inflation.
Markets are still pricing in a future where inflation falls, rates decline, and liquidity supports higher asset prices. But that outlook depends on favorable conditions. If oil prices remain elevated because of conflict in Iran or broader energy disruptions, inflation could remain stubbornly high.
Higher energy costs affect transportation, manufacturing, food, and consumer spending. If inflation stays elevated, the Federal Reserve may be unable to cut rates aggressively. Higher bond yields would put pressure on equity valuations, particularly high-growth and AI-related stocks.
The fourth issue is political and regulatory risk.
I see signs of weaker investor protections and increasing tolerance for speculation. Crypto is the clearest example. Much of the sector appears driven more by speculation, insider incentives, and political influence than by genuine economic utility. When regulation weakens and speculation dominates, ordinary investors often bear the consequences.
Then there is the coming IPO wave.
Companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are frequently discussed as future public listings. These are impressive businesses, but they are also capital-intensive, expensive, and valued on extremely optimistic assumptions.
My concern is that if these companies are rapidly included in major indexes, passive investors, pension funds, and retirement accounts will be forced to buy them regardless of valuation. That shifts risk from venture capital firms and insiders to the broader public.
This is often how bubbles end: insiders seek liquidity while retail investors buy the story.
Taken together, I see a dangerous combination of risks: extreme valuations, persistent inflation, elevated energy prices, speculative AI spending, crypto excess, weaker regulation, and a pipeline of highly valued private companies preparing to enter public markets.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe AI profits exceed expectations. Maybe inflation falls and rates decline. Maybe the market continues climbing.
But I cannot justify buying at these prices.
Missing the rally hurts, but I would rather miss the final stage of a bubble than buy into a market that appears priced for perfection.
I am simply waiting for valuations and expectations to reconnect with reality.
If this is a late-stage bubble, a 35% decline is probable. It may be what is required to bring prices, expectations, and investor psychology back to earth. 
Short
# 1:30 PM, Blood in the Streets – But Quant Says BUY! Is AI CrazAMEX:SOXL NASDAQ:TQQQ AMEX:SLV
Folks, it's 1:30 PM in New York.
If you panic-sold everything this morning after the NFP data dropped, you're probably now crouched in a corner, staring at your screen, completely confused.
Because while you were frantically selling —
**Quant signals just turned to BUY. All of them.**
Yes, you read that right.
Blood is flowing in the streets, and AI is scooping up the pieces.
## 1. First, Let's See How Bad It Is
As of 1:30 PM, here's the "death list":
| Ticker | Change | Description |
|---|---|---|
| **KORU** | **-34.55%** | Three days, cut in half. ICU is full. |
| **SOXL** | **-23.42%** | 3x semiconductors. Questioning your life choices. |
| **DRAM** | **-12.48%** | Memory chips. Still flat on the ground. |
| **HIBL** | **-15.14%** | High-beta ETF. Aggressive traders wiped out. |
| **QQQ** | **-3.45%** | Nasdaq. Tech stocks ground zero. |
| **SLV** | **-6.82%** | Silver. Safe haven? Not today. |
| **NVDA** | **-4.99%** | The chosen one. Also getting crushed. |
| **VIX** | **+21.95%** | Fear is back. Big time. |
The only thing in the green? **SPLV** (low volatility ETF), up a modest 1.55%.
This is what they call:
> **"When it's time to run, no one cares about dignity."**
## 2. The NFP Data: Where It All Went Wrong
Today's bloodbath has one clear culprit — the 8:30 AM NFP report.
**May NFP: +172,000 jobs**
**Market expected: +88,000**
Nearly double.
Unemployment rate held at 4.3%, in line. But that's not the problem.
The problem is:
**The economy is too strong for the Fed to cut rates.**
Even worse, traders have pushed the first expected rate cut all the way back to **January next year**. And the probability of a rate hike within the year has surged to **51.3%**.
Rate hike vs. rate cut?
One is heaven. The other is hell.
As soon as the data dropped, Nasdaq futures immediately sank 1.32%. Tech stocks never recovered.
## 3. KORU: From "Buy the Dip" to "Next Victim"
Today's biggest loser, no contest — **KORU, down 34.55%**.
Three days ago it was above 1,000. Today it's around 500 (adjusted).
What does that mean?
**Cut in half. In three days.**
South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5.54% today, triggering a circuit breaker. Samsung -6.4%. SK Hynix -9.92%.
Foreign investors have now sold Korean stocks for 20 consecutive trading days.
Yesterday, someone asked: "Should I bottom-fish KORU?"
Today, no one is asking that question.
Because the people who asked it yesterday have already been carried out.
## 4. But Quant Signals Say BUY!!!
Right as retail investors are running for the exits, the strangest thing happened —
**Quant systems like QuantPulse all turned green. BUY signals everywhere.**
Yes. All of them.
Right now, AI is saying:
> "You panic. I'll catch the falling knife."
Why?
Because quant doesn't care about "feelings," or "news," or whether KORU collapsed.
It only cares about data.
And the data tells it: **VIX just spiked to 21.95%. Sentiment is extremely fearful. Historically, these levels have marked short-term bottoms.**
Quant traders have a famous saying:
> "Be greedy when others are fearful — but with a stop loss."
That's the biggest difference between AI and humans.
AI buys the dip. If it's wrong, it cuts. Three minutes later, it's back in the game.
Humans buy the dip. If it's wrong, they hold, catch the falling knife halfway down, then delete the trading app.
## 5. "Dispersion Trade" Is Unwinding: Is the Bigger Crash Coming?
There's a deeper dynamic at play today that everyone should be watching.
Over recent months, a strategy called the **"dispersion trade"** has been all the rage — long individual stock volatility, short index volatility.
The result? Individual stocks get crushed, but the index looks fine.
But today, that strategy is **on the verge of collapsing**.
Data shows that **implied correlations are bouncing off their lows**. Historical experience suggests that when correlations rebound from lows, **indexes tend to correct sharply and quickly**.
Translation:
> **If VIX keeps spiking this afternoon or early next week, while individual stocks continue to tank, the broader market could be in for an even more violent selloff.**
This is not fearmongering.
OptionMetrics' head of quantitative research has already warned that **dispersion trade positioning is "somewhat crowded"** — and when it reverses, it's a stampede.
## 6. Three Hours Left. What Happens Next?
It's 1:30 PM. Three and a half hours until the close.
The biggest questions on every trader's mind:
**Can quant buying power offset retail panic selling?**
**VIX is at 22. Will it hit 25?**
**Will KORU close below -40%?**
Here's my take:
If you're a long-term investor, there's no need to panic-sell right now. But if you're a short-term trader —
**Don't fight VIX. Don't fight the trend.**
A quant buy signal doesn't mean the market goes up in the next second.
It could drop another 5% before it bounces.
The question is: **Can you handle that 5%?**
## Da Wen's Take
Folks, today's market action captures the extreme schizophrenia of U.S. stocks in 2026:
- Individual stocks: bloodbath
- Quant: buying like crazy
- Retail: getting whipsawed from both sides
What should you do right now?
My advice is simple:
**If you don't understand what's happening, hold cash and watch the show.**
**If you absolutely must buy the dip, use a stop loss — and be mentally prepared to lose 20%.**
Because in this market —
Surviving is ten thousand times more important than making money.
And today, the only way to survive is:
**Don't fall in love with KORU. Don't fight SOXL. Don't bet against VIX.**
*PS: I've heard there are people who liquidated everything the moment the NFP number crossed the tape. Now they're watching the quant buy signals, and their trigger fingers are getting itchy again. All I can say is: if it itches, just scratch it with cash. Friday afternoon is not the time to play hero.*
*PPS: Enjoy your weekend. Don't bring market emotions home. We'll deal with Monday when Monday comes.* Long 
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# NFP Explodes! 172K Crushes Expectations, Rate Cut Dreams Shatt
Folks, the non-farm payroll data is out.
If you were still dreaming that the Fed would cut rates anytime soon, wake up — not to an alarm clock, but to a bucket of ice water labeled **172,000**.
I took one look at the latest numbers, and all I can say is:
This Friday, someone is definitely losing sleep.
---
## 1. NFP Data: So Much for a "Moderate Cooling"
Let's start with the numbers.
U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by **172,000** in May. And what was the market expecting?
**88,000**.
Nearly double.
Unemployment rate held at 4.3%, in line with expectations, steady for the second straight month.
What's the subtext here?
> **The U.S. economy isn't cooling — it's running hot.**
Just yesterday, analysts were saying "bad news is good news" — the weaker the NFP, the stronger the rate-cut expectations, and the more stocks would rally.
Then today's data dropped, and that narrative got slapped right in the face.
---
## 2. Market Reaction: Nasdaq Futures Take a Knee First
Right after the data, stock futures diverged instantly:
- **Dow Futures**: +0.06% (barely hanging on)
- **S&P 500 Futures**: -0.61%
- **Nasdaq 100 Futures**: **-1.32%**
Why are tech stocks getting hit the hardest?
Because rate-cut hopes are gone. And now, there's even talk of **rate hikes**.
Traders have pushed the first expected rate cut all the way back to **January next year** — just yesterday, they were optimistic about a March cut.
Even worse, interest rate futures now show investors see a **51.3% probability** of a rate hike within the year.
Rate hike vs. rate cut?
One is heaven, the other is hell.
---
## 3. Chip Stocks: Broadcom Aftershocks + NFP Follow-Up = Pain on Pain
Pre-market, chip stocks were already in free fall:
- **ARM**: down over 5%
- **Micron**: down 4%
- **Intel, ASML, AMD, TSMC**: down 2-3% each
The Broadcom situation wasn't over yet, and now NFP came in to twist the knife.
Broadcom tanked over 12% in one day after its AI chip revenue outlook missed expectations. Micron followed with a 7%+ drop.
Now with NFP blowing past estimates, rate expectations have completely reversed —
**High-valuation tech stocks are the first to get thrown overboard.**
JPMorgan's take now sounds painfully accurate:
> "No matter whether May's NFP is strong or weak, it's bad news for U.S. stocks."
Weak numbers? Fear of recession. Strong numbers? Fear of rate hikes.
It's not "no good options" — it's "every option is wrong."
---
## 4. KORU: Lost Half Its Value in Two Days, Korean Investors Are Crying Tears
Now look at KORU.
Down 23% yesterday. Down again today.
South Korea's KOSPI index closed **down 5.54%** today at 8,160.59.
It triggered a circuit breaker during the session — the Korea Exchange halted program trading for five minutes.
Samsung Electronics: -6.4%
SK Hynix: -9.92%
Foreign investors have now sold Korean stocks for 20 consecutive trading days.
What kind of market is this?
**Anyone who tried to catch the knife is now buried two layers deep.**
KORU fell from over 1,000 to around 800 in just two days — practically cut in half.
Who's buying? Only the brave and the martyrs.
---
## 5. Dow: The Only One Still Smiling
The only one still able to crack a smile is the Dow.
Yesterday, the Dow surged 1.73% to a record high.
Today, after the NFP data, Dow futures are still in the green.
Why?
Because money is **fleeing tech and flowing into traditional blue chips**.
Healthcare and financials led gains yesterday, up 3.16% and 2.68% respectively.
KB Financial: +4.51%
Shinhan Financial: +7.39%
What's this called?
**A style shift.**
When rate-hike expectations heat up, financials are one of the few sectors that actually benefit.
Meanwhile, those still soaking in the AI bubble today — well, they might break out in a rash.
---
## 6. Gold, Oil, Dollar: Who's the Winner?
After the NFP data, other assets are repricing as well:
- **Gold**: up 0.88% last night, hovering around $4,475. Recession fears haven't materialized, but safe-haven demand remains.
- **Oil**: down over 3%, due to news of a conditional ceasefire agreement — geopolitical risk is cooling.
- **Dollar Index**: holding weak, but a strong NFP could trigger a dollar rebound.
Right now, the biggest losers are **tech stock bulls**, the calmest are **financial stock holders**, and the most bewildered are **those still lying in KORU**.
---
## Da Wen's Take
Folks, today's NFP data sends a very clear signal:
> **"Rate cuts? Not happening."**
The first Fed policy meeting under new Chair Warsh (June 16-17) is just around the corner.
The big questions now are:
- If NFP is this strong, will the Fed actually **hike rates**?
- If they hike, how much further will tech stocks fall?
- If tech crashes, how long can the Dow hold up?
My advice is simple:
**Don't fight the Fed, and don't fight the trend.**
When you're confused, just **hold cash and watch the show**.
After all —
In this market, surviving matters more than winning.
---
*PS: Someone asked again today whether they should bottom-fish KORU. I'll just say: you're not catching a bottom — you're catching a suspense thriller.* Short 
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Research 05.06.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY −3.17 −0.42%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ −7.70 −1.04%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
08:30 USA – Average Hourly Earnings
08:30 USA – Non Farm Payrolls
08:30 USA – Labor Force Participation Rate
08:30 USA – Unemployment Rate
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:TTAN NYSE:ABM NASDAQ:BBCP NASDAQ:COO NASDAQ:XE
Other news:
NASDAQ:STI announced a patented breakthrough for Space-Based Artificial Intelligence Batteries Include the Highest-Performing Patented Lithium Anode Protection Technology
Reverse merger-style business combination: NASDAQ:BGMS signed an all-stock Business Combination Agreement to acquire Future NRG. After closing, Future NRG shareholders are expected to own more than 99% of the combined company, meaning Future NRG effectively becomes the main business behind the public vehicle.
Jegannathan - Vice Pres of NASDAQ:TSLA Joins NASDAQ:CHRN After an 13-Yr Tenure at Tesla.
NYSE:AXTA Price Target Announced at $44.00/Share by Citigroup
NYSE:RDW has been awarded a contract from Astrobiome Space, a Luxembourg-based biotech company.
WellSpan Health and NYSE:PHG Announce Landmark Strategic Alliance, Accelerating Innovation and Research Across Central Pennsylvania and Northern Maryland
GOOGL Expands Texas Footprint With New Data Center, Energy Hub
NYSE:PINS Stock Jumps On $4B Cloud Deal With NASDAQ:AMZN / PINS to use cloud deal to expand its infrastructure and scale AI-driven features for its 600 million users.
NASDAQ:MRLN Successfully Completes Critical Design Review for C-130J Autonomy Program with USSOCOM / Completion of the CDR is a milestone in the program’s maturation, validating the system’s design readiness and advancing Merlin from design development into aircraft integration activities.
JPMorgan upgraded NASDAQ:TSLA to “neutral” from “underweight,” saying the company’s future is robotics.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NYSE:GWRE NASDAQ:LULU NYSE:PL NASDAQ:DOCU NYSE:IOT NYSE:RBRK
Other news:
NASDAQ:ALM offering of US$700,000,000
NASDAQ:KEEL offering of $400 million
NASDAQ:ARM Chief Accounting Officer Sold Shares Worth Over $4.4M
NYSE:BMNR to Raise $300M in Preferred Stock to Buy ETH
‼️ Additional
Investors from China and Hong Kong will be barred from participating in the SpaceX IPO on national security grounds — BBG.
NASDAQ:MSTR unrealized loss from CRYPTOCAP:BTC investments has exceeded $10.5 billion.
-- Michael Saylor says that “fundamentally” BTC is fine, and the reason for the heavy outflows is capital rotation from crypto into AI projects.
Trump approved $700 million to revive the US coal industry.
Compound: Net income growth over the past 5 years: NASDAQ:NVDA +2,900%, NASDAQ:MU +484%, NASDAQ:AVGO +411%, NASDAQ:NFLX +256%, NASDAQ:AMZN +238%, NASDAQ:TSLA +220%, NASDAQ:GOOGL +212%, NASDAQ:MSFT +124%, NASDAQ:META +109%, NASDAQ:AAPL +61%, Tencent +26%, NYSE:BABA -30%.
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:TTAN NYSE:ABM NASDAQ:BBCP NASDAQ:COO NASDAQ:XE NASDAQ:STI NASDAQ:BGMS NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:CHRN NYSE:AXTA NYSE:RDW NYSE:PHG NASDAQ:GOOGL NYSE:PINS NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:MRLN NYSE:GWRE NASDAQ:LULU NYSE:PL NASDAQ:DOCU NYSE:IOT NYSE:RBRK NASDAQ:ALM NASDAQ:KEEL NASDAQ:ARM NYSE:BMNR NASDAQ:MSTR CRYPTOCAP:BTC NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:AVGO NASDAQ:NFLX NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:AAPL NYSE:BABA
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
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231K Jobless Claims, 108K Layoffs… But No Need to Panic Yet! WhySome people are starting to freak out about the latest labor market data 😅 But let’s break it down calmly, no panic needed.
1. **Initial Jobless Claims** came in higher than expected (231K vs forecast ~212K).
I circled January last year and January this year in red — you can see claims were unusually low at the start of 2026 (a real dip), and now it looks like we’re seeing catch-up from that deferred effect.
Plus, brutal weather conditions (snowstorms) at the end of January clearly acted as a drag ❄️. So this isn’t a clean signal of labor market weakness.
2. **JOLTS Job Openings** (second slide) — came in noticeably worse than expected: ~6.54 million vs forecast ~7.2 million.
Yes, this does point to further cooling in labor demand by the end of 2025. The downward trend has been going for years.
But zoom out to pre-pandemic levels — 5–6.5 million openings is a perfectly healthy, normal range. Far from a recessionary signal 🚀.
3. **Challenger Job Cuts** — 108,435 announced in January 2026, the highest January figure since 2009 (+118% YoY and +205% MoM).
Yes, a number >100k looks scary, and some are already yelling “this isn’t just noise, it’s stress!”
Historically, such spikes did tend to appear during recessions… but context matters.
4. **Where are the cuts actually happening?**
Three key industries absorbed almost all of January’s pain:
- Transportation — 31,243 (mostly UPS — 30,000 after ending their Amazon relationship)
- Technology — 22,291 (of which Amazon accounted for 16,000 as part of management-layer restructuring)
- Healthcare — 17,107 (highest for the sector since April 2020; pressure from inflation, high labor costs, and lower Medicaid/Medicare reimbursements)
Bottom line: the bulk of these losses came from literally **two companies** (Amazon + UPS), plus very specific policy pressures in healthcare from Medicare/Medicaid changes.
This does **not** look like a broad, systemic shift or the start of a recession across the entire economy.
Yes, we’ve got some localized pain and elevated noise right now, but this is **still far from a systemic crisis** 😌.
Most likely, February–March data will show a sharp improvement (seasonality + post-weather rebound + one-off big announcements already in the rearview).
Stay calm and keep watching the numbers 📊
Long
SaaS looks heavily undervalued—what's your opinion? Is it time to buy yet?
If we compare the technology sector and SaaS, we see that SaaS is lagging far behind the technology sector, although usually this correlation is quite high. Even companies with a "Rule of 40" > 45% (SNOW, DDOG, CRWD, etc.) have not yet convinced the market that they can consistently combine +20% YoY growth with high FCF.
The 60-day rolling correlation indicates that the correlation between Tech and SaaS is dropping to new lows again, meaning things in SaaS are worsening once more.
Let's compile a list of top SaaS companies based on metrics Rule of 40 > 45% and NRR > 115%. Typically, during demand recovery, it's these SaaS companies that show the greatest growth in stock quotes.
Tomorrow, I plan to publish several breakdowns of companies from SaaS—subscribe so you don't miss it, it'll be interesting. Long 
Long 
