VOT outlook (18/09/2026)Fib confluence + clean channel
Let's see, might break to the upside and top sooner
Nfa
ETF market
Long
Opening: QQQ October 30th 670/680/2 x 770/780 Iron Condor... for a 3.85 credit.
Comments: I "oopsied" here a little bit, intending to do a double double (i.e., the 670/780/2 x 770/775), but instead routed a ratio'd setup with twice the number of contracts on the call side as on the put and wings of equal width, such that the buying power effect is 20.00 minus the credit received (3.85) instead of 10.00 minus the credit received. Consequently, my ROC metrics won't quite what I like to see out of these, but I'll leave it alone, since it gives me some
Opening (IRA): TLT October 18th -83P... for a 2.11 credit.
Comments: Part deux of a three put ladder with the rungs all at the 83 strike. Looking to pick up additional shares at 83, which will occur if TLT stays sub-83 through expiry.
Opening: QQQ October 16th 679/689/2 x 765/770 Iron Condor... for a 2.84 credit.
Comments: My weekly, delta neutral iron condor in the broad market ETF with the highest IV.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.84 ($284)
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: 7.16 ($716)
ROC at Max: 39.7%
ROC at 50% Max: 19.8%
ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing Take Profit: 14.0%
Will generally look to take profit at 10% of the width of the widest wing (i.e., for a 1.00/$100 profit).
IGV - cup & handle ? looks like rotation can help to break to a new Higher high
if closes above 108-110, looks like new ATH is in the cards
Is momentum shifting to SW ?
Long
BTC/USD is on the moveCould be a turning point - bearish to bullish ?
50 SMA and 150 SMA touch again,
there is a clear resistance area just above,
I will be looking for a breakout there.
Interesting point ? time will tell
Long
Daily Noise vs Weekly Reality $SOXX $NDXLooking at the daily charts right now can give you whiplash. Between the intraday swings and the choppy back and forth under short term moving averages, discerning a clear immediate direction is tough. If you are only watching the daily candles, it feels heavy and threatening.
However, stepping back to the weekly timeframes paints a completely different picture.
The Leopold Shock Factor
A massive chunk of the recent erratic price action was blown up by the Leopold event. When big exogenous sho
Research 18.09.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY -1.89 -0.25%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +1.53 +0.21%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
09:15 USA – Industrial Production
09:30 USA – Fed Bowman Speech
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:PURR and NYSE:BLSH Jumps as SEC Approves 'Innovation Exemption' for Tokenized Stock Trading
Citi raised NYSE:STUB to Buy but lowered its price target to $7 from $9.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is rising despite The collapse of the Clarity Act and a Federal Res
QQQ Technical Outlook: Critical Price Levels, Support Resistance📊 QQQ TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Critical Price Levels • Support • Resistance • Price Structure
⚡ KEY LEVELS AT A GLANCE
🔴 721.86–724.13 MAJOR RESISTANCE | 🔴 718.00–720.00 RESISTANCE | 🟢 713.00–715.00 SUPPORT | 🟢 709.00–712.00 SUPPORT | 🟣 700.00–705.00 MAJOR SUPPORT
QQQ is trading at an important technical junction following Thursday's strong rebound. The immediate question is no longer simply whether momentum is bullish or bearish.
The key is how price reacts at these clearly defined levels.
🔴 718.00–
SPY Is Pinned Under 762.57 For A Second Session.SPY Is Pinned Under 762.57 For A Second Session.
SPY closed Thursday at 762.07 and opens Friday at 762.00 - six cents of movement across the overnight session, still beneath the 762.57 shelf it has now failed to reclaim twice. Volatility and volume on the hourly have both collapsed into the bottom fifteenth of their range, which is the quietest this chart has been since the sweep. Yesterday's long reading did not survive the session: both timeframes have settled back to neutral quartiles while
GDX Correction Concludes, Anticipating Minimum 3-Wave UpsideThe short‑term Elliott Wave view in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) shows that the rally from the July 17, 2026 low unfolded as a five‑wave impulse. This move ended wave ((1)) at $105.67, completing the initial bullish cycle. The ETF then entered a correction in wave ((2)), which is forming as a possible double three structure. From the peak of wave ((1)), wave A declined to $94. A rebound in wave B reached $101.83, followed by wave C, which dropped to $91.19. That decline completed wave (W) in higher
BOND Break Out?💣 Bonds Near a Major Breakout — And It’s Not Bullish for Risk Assets
We’re approaching a critical breakout zone in bonds.
At first glance, you might think: “High demand for U.S. debt? That’s great! Higher bond prices, lower yields, cheaper interest payments!”
That’s Trump-math logic — the same kind that says prices are “down 300%.” 😅 You can only go down 100%, folks. No matter where the price goes!
Here’s the real story:
For bond prices to surge, investors must be running from risk. Big money
Long
Opening: XBI October 16th 142/152/180/190 Iron Condor... for a 2.86 credit.
Comments: IV isn't as high as I would like, but this isn't the greatest premium-selling market at the moment with VIX sub-15 ... . Generally looking to keep some theta on and burning, while keeping some powder dry on the side for any higherIV slopportunities that come along.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.86 ($286)
Max Loss: 7.14 ($714)
ROC at Max: 40.0%
ROC at 50% Max: 20.0%
ROC at 10% of the width of the widest wing: 14.0%
Will generally look to money, take, run at 10% of t
Opening (Delta Hedge): QQQ October 23rd 2 x -765C/770C... for a 1.38 credit.
Comments: Delta hedge to make my net position in QQQ lean a smidge short.
Short
Opening: QQQ October 9th 683/693/2 x 770/775 Double Double IC... for a 2.86 credit.
Comments: Selling the 25 delta short option on the put side, 2 x the -13 on the call to accommodate skew in the expiry nearest 45 DTE.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.86 ($286)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 7.14 ($714)
ROC at Max: 40.1%
ROC at 50% Max: 20.0%
ROC at 10% of the Width of the Wing: 14.0%
Looking to money, take, run on these at 10% of the width of the widest wing (1.00/$100).
Opening: GLD October 23rd -435C/445C... for a 1.58 credit.
Comments: Delta hedge. Picking up some short delta here to flatten the net delta of my GLD position. Probably not a good standalone, bearish assumption trade ... .
Short
Opening: GLD October 16th 2x 369/374/440/450 Iron Condor... for a 2.74 credit.
Comments: Adding out in the October monthly. Primarily in this for its lack of correlation to the broad market. Going double double on the put side to accommodate skew ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.74 ($274)
Max Loss: 7.16 ($716)
ROC at Max: 38.3%
ROC at 50% Max: 19.1%
ROC at 10% of the width of the widest wing: 14.0%
Money, taking, running at 10% of the width of the widest wing rather than farting around waiting for 50% max to come in.
SPY will go down from hereDon't get fooled by the market makers here. This bounce is nothing but a relief rally. In other words it holds no real value.
Massive put walls underneath.
Magnets will pull the price down.
9d fear is back down, creates the fuel for the drop.
The sell is not over yet, we haven't seen capitulation yet.
Short
$GLD — Two Signals Disagree at 400, Let the Range DecideSame thing happens. Closed near 400 again — no decision yet while price stays between 400 and 395.
Two signals pointing opposite ways right now, and that's exactly why this isn't a trade to force.
First — No Demand at the level. Price gapped up to 400.28, tagged 401.44, then faded all session to close 398.36, right near the low of the day. Range came in at 43% of a normal day and volume at 62% of average. An up move on light volume, narrow range, closing at its low, directly into resistance —
$SPY — Reclaims 760.57, Seventh Straight Heavy-Volume SessionAMEX:SPY opened with a gap up, then chopped all day. The close came in red on the session, but the important thing is where it closed.
762.60 — back above 760.57. That was the big resistance level after the breakdown, and AMEX:SPY has reclaimed it. Price is also back inside the 5-12 and 34-50 @ripster47 EMA cloud zone it lost last week, trying to curl but closing near the 5-12 EMA.
Yesterday's low at 749.60 is looking like the low of this move. That was a huge volume day with the widest ran
Long
$QQQ — Both Clouds Reclaimed on Heaviest Volume of the Range, BuGap up, then chop. NASDAQ:QQQ closed 716.92, up 1.73%, with both @ripster47 EMA clouds reclaimed — a 5-12 Curl and a 34-50 Crossed together.
The 700 bounce worked. Price is 17 points off that low in three sessions, and that level has now been defended four times since June.
The bar is more interesting than it looks
Range came in at 4.72 against a 9.49 ATR — 50%, a narrow bar. The entire 12.20-point gain was the gap. It opened 715.95 and closed 716.92 — barely a point of progress once the se
MAGS: Cup Closing Above 50 SMA at Resistance💡 Swing setup idea
50 SMA Strategy
🔎 Analysis summary:
The Magnificent 7 ETF is showing great strength and reaching resistance. We can also see it above the 50-day moving average and closing a cup pattern. This alignment of trend, pattern and level makes the breakout area key to watch. The upside potential is projected by the depth of the cup from the breakout point.
👀 Levels to watch:
Entry trigger: Break above $71.15
Target: $81.40
Stop: Under the breakout / base of the cup
💬 Will MA
Long
MAGS Daily — Cup and Handle Setup, Watching for the BreakoutRoundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) — Daily
Setup: A cup and handle looks to be forming here. The cup runs about 17% deep ($10.34) from the ~$71 resistance down to the low, and if price clears that resistance, the measured move projects a similar push higher — roughly the depth of the cup.
The handle is the current uptrend into resistance (white trendline). As long as that line holds, the pattern stays intact.
Trigger: this only becomes a buy the moment price breaks and holds abo
Long