Weekly Bias — 29 JuneThe June low around $686 was a sell-side liquidity sweep — price immediately reclaimed it & now we're seeing the opposite, repeated failures above $740-$748 → buy-side liquidity being harvested
Price hasn't made a major lower low, but RSI has rolled over to approximately 46
Momentum is deteriorating faster than price
MACD histogram continues expanding negatively
The signal line remains below zero
Momentum still favors sellers
The decline is occurring on average to slightly declining volume, not panic volume
Suggests profit taking, dealer hedging & systematic selling rather than institutional
liquidation
A close beneath $698 would materially weaken the bullish intermediate-term structure
The largest high-volume nodes remain around
$706
$687
$636
These become magnets if selling accelerates
Resistance
$719-$723 (20d EMA)
$729-$730
$740
$748
Support
$706
$698-$700
$687
$672
SPY is approaching the same inflection point
Current price sits almost directly on the rising 50d EMA
Average has supported every correction since April
If it fails, next support becomes $720 → $710
Momentum is exactly like QQQ, RSI falling & MACD bearish → momentum weakening
IWM isn't not confirming the weakness
Instead it's making new recovery highs, remaining above the 20d EMA & remaining above the 50d EMA
Relative strength has shifted toward cyclicals & small caps
Rotation is constructive for the broader market
If IWM also loses $292, then the market becomes much more concerning
The charts suggest growth is under pressure while cyclicals continue outperforming
Aligns with stable or slightly lower yields, less pressure on duration-sensitive stocks & leadership broadening beyond mega-cap AI
If yields unexpectedly rise sharply this week, QQQ is likely to underperform further while IWM's relative strength could fade
The $700-$706 area on QQQ & $729-$730 on SPY are the key levels from OI concentrations
QQQ has significant dealer interest around the $700-$715 area, which could act as a pin area if realized volatility stays contained
SPY shows notable 2-sided positioning, suggesting increased gamma around the current price & the potential for sharp moves if those levels break
IWM shows dealers have very large put exposure clustered between $280-$290, making that area a likely support level unless selling accelerates significantly
Based on recent realized daily movement
QQQ approximately ±16-20 points
SPY approximately ±12-15 points
IWM approximately ±6-8 points
Given the current technical setup, avoid chasing downside after several bearish sessions
If QQQ tests $697-$706 & shows evidence of stabilization (higher low, bullish reversal candle, or improving intraday breadth), the higher-probability trade would be buy ATM or slightly ITM QQQ calls
10-21 DTE
Initial upside targets $720, then $730, then $740
Thesis invalidation on a daily close below $698, with stronger confirmation if $687 fails
If QQQ rallies back into $720-$723 & is rejected on weakening momentum, that area offers a favorable risk/reward location for short-duration bearish exposure targeting a move back toward $700
The HTF trend still favors bulls, but the daily charts show a meaningful loss of momentum so the next several sessions are likely to determine whether this is merely a healthy correction within the April advance or the beginning of a deeper retracement
Using the AVWAPs, EMAs & the visible structure
Price probes $700 (55%) → briefly breaks to $697 → buyers defend 50d EMA → recover $719 → challenge $730
Immediate reclaim of $719 (30%) → close above $730 → squeeze toward $742 → retest highs
Need to see a strong daily close back above the recent-high AVWAP with improving RSI & MACD
Lose $698 decisively (15%) → $686 → $672 → 100d EMA
Would represent a deeper correction of roughly 10–12% from the high
The anchored VWAPs strengthen the bearish short-term case without invalidating the longer-term bull market.
Constructive again if QQQ reclaims $719 (20d EMA), closes above $730 (high AVWAP) & does so on expanding volume
Would suggest the recent breakdown was a bear trap rather than true distribution
Defensive if QQQ loses the 50d EMA (~$699) on a daily closing basis, the AVWAP from the June low starts acting as resistance instead of support & downside volume expands
Would indicate institutions are no longer defending the post-April uptrend
The most important support cluster (50d EMA + volume node + psychological $700 + nearby sell-side liquidity) — this confluence around $698–$705 is where we should expect the highest probability of a meaningful reaction since if buyers can't defend that area, the correction is likely to extend toward the 100d EMA near $670; conversely, if that level holds & price reclaims the AVWAPs, it would fit the pattern of a healthy correction within the broader uptrend rather than the start of a new bearish cycle
