SPY short swing tradeWe are at the top of the broadening wedge and I believe we are at the end of an upward correction. For me, this is a sell the rip moment.
A large move down may be next and it could be very quick - one to two weeks. If it's correct and we land a target around 730, you can see the potential for a head and shoulders forming into December - January.
To me this is probably the best trade opportunity this year. It may not work, so give it time and don't let it run much higher than here.
ETF market
Black FridayWhen we broke back into the range, technical traders got out and it started accelerating as yesterday's buyers got under water. Also remember there are very few shorts in the market after yesterday, so short covering positions acting as price support is not there.
We may be in a crash scenario to 7k.
Vix is starting to break up and out of it's resistance after many months of bubbling.
My opinion is to hold shorts into Friday or Monday depending on where we land tomorrow. Ultimately I think
$QQQ $SPY - HERE IS WHY IS THINK THE STRONG BOUNCE IS A TRAPNASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY - Bull Trap?
This strong bounce looks bullish on the surface, but the bigger picture tells a different story.
I believe this rally is setting bulls up for another disappointment. Here’s why I’m still watching for the next move lower.
#SP500 #Nasdaq #StockMarket #Trading
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Thursday, November 5, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Levels for Thursday, November 5, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 197K | Previous: 194K
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #UnemploymentClaims
QQQ volume profile below the busiest price zoneQQQ fell below its busiest price zone. What does that tell us?
The amber line sits near $722, while QQQ trades around $693 in this November 2 snapshot. The horizontal bars explain why that higher area stands out: it contains the largest volume row within the selected history.
Choose the history first
This 2-hour chart selects the October high through the captured endpoint. It examines the trading activity during that interval, including declines and rebounds. Candles before the shaded select
SOXL ▲ LONG · Bounce swing 60 / 56 / 52 / 48 → 70 / 75▸ WHY: semis got flushed again - QCOM -9.5% and ARM -5% premarket after earnings, AMD and MU -3%. SOXL is -9% premarket on top of yesterday's -8.8%. that's -64% from the Oct 6 high (169.8) and -17% in two sessions, and it's back inside the April 8 gap (56.6-63.6) with heavy puts at 60. shorting here feels dangerous to me - after a run like this a sharp bounce can come any day. Democrats just took both chambers, and any positive headline from their side on chips or data centers can drop at any mo
$SOXL is a swing long from $65It's finally time to buy semis again. Sentiment is in the dumps after the blue sweep last night but this isn't the time to get bearish. The time to get bearish was Oct 6th, when I bought calls on $SOXS.
I don't think this is a buy and hold play, but I do think this makes for a good trade over the coming weeks.
I think it's likely that we bounce from here up to the two resistance levels.
That's where you'll want to exit as I do think there's more downside in SOXL over the long run.
$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Wednesday, November 4, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Levels for Wednesday, November 4, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI | Forecast: 54.8 | Previous: 54.9
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #ISM #ServicesPMI #StockMarket
SOXL ▼ SHORT · AMD pop faded 72 / 74 / 77 → 61▸ WHY: semis ran into AMD and the election - SOXL +7.3% yesterday (73.1 close). AMD beat, but it already gave back the whole +5% move premarket. Democrats took both chambers and data center limits passed on state ballots (at least 14 Ohio towns, 10 outright bans). Short term that's a headwind for the AI hardware trade, and SOXL is 3x that trade.
▸ LEVELS: 77 above the premarket high zone · 73.1 pre-election close · 67.5 Nov 2 low · 63.6 April 8 low · 61 target zone
▸ PLAN: Tier 1 short in prem
Biotech Bubble?🧬 Biotech Bubble? 🫧
Is the biotech sector putting in a generational top?
The long-term 3W chart of AMEX:XBI suggests that possibility, and I've taken a long position in AMEX:LABD to capitalize on a potential downturn.
There's more to this trade than a bearish chart pattern. Between AMEX:LABD 's extraordinary volume, elevated short interest, and a developing reversal formation, the setup is becoming increasingly compelling.
1. AMEX:XBI — A Generational Double Top?
The headline cha
TLT Long Long term investment, own bonds near 25-year lows.
Entry 81.1
no Stop
Target 84
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader. Recently, about 50% of my trades had been stopped quickly.
SellToOpen 2026-12-18 P84, 3.62 (Delta= -0.67)
Allow assignment to accumulate Conservative long term investment.
if P84 could be assigned, same as limit buy at 80.38.
No stop, buy and hold.
QQQ: If it closes here, I'm out. Just following the indicatorQQQ is down about 5.7% today, near 652. VIX jumped from 16.61 to about 26.
My Risk-Off Ladder has 3 warnings. Right now 2 are on:
1. VIX in its top 20% of the past year: ON (the line is about 19.9)
2. QQQ below its 200-day (about 681): ON
3. QQQ 15% below its 1-year high (648.4): not yet, but close
The plan is simple:
- Until the close, I'm still 100% in. No panic selling mid-bar.
- If QQQ closes under 681 with VIX above 19.9 (2 of 3), I step aside to 0% at the close and stay out.
- Back to 10
Qs got hurtQQQ has fallen about 15% from its October 6 high of 763. It’s down roughly 6% today, and the day isn’t over yet.
Around 660–662 (red dashed line): this is where the July low (660) and the anchored VWAP (blue line, 662) meet. Today’s drop broke below it, so it should now act as resistance. If QQQ gets back above it and stays there, that’s the first sign the selling is easing.
Where the drop could stop
Zone 1, 641–650 (yellow, about −15%): a short pause area from mid-April. Today’s low of 647 i
QQQ – At Support!
Since June, this ETF has been trading sideways within a broad range of approximately $660 to $760.
The most recent test of the $760 level resulted in a new all-time high, followed by an 8% pullback (A). This week, we are seeing another 7% decline (B). These can be viewed as two consecutive downward legs, resulting in a combined 15% drop over the course of just one month.
The price is now trading at a level that previously acted as support, creating an opportunity for buyers to step back in
"High or low in the first hour": true, and random gives the sameA statistic that circulates in index-trading videos: on 7 days out of 10, the high or low of the New York session is set in the first hour (9:30 to 10:30). And: if price ends that hour in the upper part of its range, on 6 days out of 10 the day's low is already in.
I checked it on 13 indices with minute data. On the S&P 500 (885 days, September 2021 to June 2025):
- High or low in the first hour: 70.5%
- "The low is already in" if the hour ends high: 60.4%
The statistics are true. Then I asked
QQQ/Nasdaq Wave 3 breaks Rising Wedge! AI Bubble Popping?Seems we broke below the rising wedge with possible Wave 3 after multiple months of bearish divergence on the MACD.
At the time of this post we got within about 1% of a limit down (-7%) and got a small bounce.
AI bubble seems to be popping here.
If this is an impulsive move down, we may see more downside.
If we complete a 5 wave move down, that may be an A. Possibly followed by an ABC up, and then another impulsive move down for C.
Not Financial Advice!
SPY as of Republicans lost both camerasTrump lost the House and the Senate; the market reacted bullishly, but it had already hit a very strong resistance level.
It needs to pull back in order to break through it.
My Elliott Wave projection points to a short position, targeting the top and bottom of wave 4, followed by a rebound.
This projection implies a bearish 2027.
Not everything is lost yet—in fact, it’s more like the beginning.
The point of this scenario is to be prepared to protect yourself.























