Relative Strength Stocks I'm Watching Right NowThese are the strongest names on my radar right now:
NYSE:RBRK , NASDAQ:CRWD , NASDAQ:DDOG , NYSE:SNOW , NASDAQ:OKTA , NASDAQ:PANW
Around June 26th, I entered several new positions, while already holding my existing RBRK trade. The new additions were CRWD and DDOG.
I ended up closing all of these positions on July 2nd when the Nasdaq ( NASDAQ:QQQ ) broke down below its 10/20 EMA. Looking back, I shouldn't have sold everything—only a partial piece. This is a clear room for improvement for me, as these stocks actually kept pushing higher afterward.
For now, QQQ is looking quite volatile, so we will see how it plays out. However, I am definitely focusing on watching the strongest stocks that show relative strength.
Not financial advice.
Long
I Tracked 1,262 Trades. Five Losses Proved Nothing.“The strategy stopped working.”
That was the conclusion I reached after five losses.
I had spent years moving between Harmonics, price action and Wyckoff. Every time the losses arrived, I started looking for another answer.
Then I recorded 1,262 trades.
My win rate was 21%. My average winner was 3.93R.
That sample finally showed me what five trades actually told me.
Almost nothing.
Five Trades Feel Like Proof
Here is how a losing run feels from inside the account.
Loss one. Fine.
Loss two. Annoying.
Loss three. You check the entry rules again.
Loss four. You start wondering whether the market has changed.
Loss five. You open YouTube.
I know that cycle because I lived it.
I would find another strategy, test it for a while and feel confident again. Then the first ugly run arrived and I repeated the process.
The losses were real. My conclusion was the problem.
Five trades were far too little information to judge the system.
Losses Come in Clusters
Flip a fair coin enough times and you will see ugly streaks.
Several heads or tails can appear in a row without changing the odds of the coin.
A trading system behaves the same way. Wins and losses do not arrive in a neat pattern.
With a 21% win rate, losses are more common than wins. That does not automatically make the system unprofitable. Across my 1,262 recorded trades, the average winner was large enough to offset a mostly losing column.
But you cannot see that relationship across five trades.
You need enough trades for the average winner, average loser, win rate and losing runs to become visible.
Without that sample, every loss feels like a new problem.
One week, you blame the entry.
The next week, you change the exit.
Then you add another indicator.
You are not improving the system. You are preventing it from producing enough clean data to evaluate.
A Short Sample Can Mislead You Both Ways
A small sample does not only make good systems look bad.
It can also make bad systems look good.
You can take five random trades and win four. That does not prove you have an edge.
You can follow a tested system for five trades and lose all five. That does not prove the edge disappeared.
The same problem sits underneath both conclusions. You are asking a small sample to answer a question it cannot answer yet.
This is why I stopped measuring my trading in individual outcomes.
The useful questions are simpler:
• Did the trade match the tested setup?
• Was the risk correct?
• Did I follow the exit rule?
• Am I still collecting the same type of trade?
If the execution changed, investigate the execution.
If the rules stayed consistent, one losing run is not enough reason to rebuild the system.
Your Journal Holds the Answer
You cannot judge a sample that only exists in screenshots and memory.
Memory keeps the painful losses and exciting winners. It forgets the boring trades between them.
A journal forces you to see the full sequence.
Open your last 20 trades from one setup. Keep them in the order they happened.
Write down:
• Win, loss or breakeven
• Result in R
• Whether the setup followed your rules
• Whether the execution followed your rules
Twenty trades still cannot prove that a system works. That is not the purpose of this exercise.
The purpose is to show you how little one bad week can prove.
You may find that the strategy was never tested properly.
You may find that the rules changed between trades.
Or you may find a normal losing run inside a system you abandoned too early.
All three findings are more useful than “the market changed”.
If your trades are scattered across screenshots, get a trading journal.
Record the next 20 trades from one setup in order. You will have something stronger than confidence when the next losing run arrives.
You will have data. Bearish case for XLCGood morning traders,
The bearish thesis for XLC is not that digital advertising or communication services are disappearing. Instead, it argues that the market may be underestimating several medium-term risks:
Valuations remain demanding for the largest holdings.
Earnings expectations may be too optimistic.
AI monetization could take longer than expected.
Capital may rotate toward sectors with better earnings momentum.
The ETF is highly concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks.
The downside case is therefore driven more by multiple compression than by a collapse in revenues.
1. Extreme concentration risk
One of XLC's biggest weaknesses is its concentration.
The ETF is dominated by companies such as:
Meta Platforms
Alphabet
Netflix
Meta and Alphabet together account for a very large share of the portfolio.
This creates two problems:
company-specific risks become sector risks;
disappointing earnings from only one or two companies can materially impact ETF performance.
2. AI expectations may be ahead of reality
Markets increasingly assume that AI will generate:
higher advertising revenue;
lower operating costs;
new software products;
productivity gains.
However, there are risks:
AI infrastructure spending is extremely high.
Monetization remains uncertain in some areas.
Returns on capital may take years to materialize.
If investors become less confident about AI payback periods, valuation multiples could contract.
3. Advertising is cyclical
Although digital advertising has structural growth, it remains economically sensitive.
During an economic slowdown:
marketing budgets are reduced;
advertisers delay campaigns;
small businesses spend less.
Companies with large advertising exposure could therefore face earnings pressure.
4. Regulatory pressure
Large communication platforms continue to face regulatory scrutiny.
Potential risks include:
antitrust actions;
digital advertising regulation;
privacy restrictions;
AI regulation;
content moderation requirements.
Higher compliance costs could weigh on margins.
5. Limited multiple expansion
Following several years of strong performance, many of XLC's largest holdings already trade at premium valuations.
Even if earnings continue growing, future returns may depend more on earnings growth than on valuation expansion.
6. Rotation toward other sectors
One of the biggest risks is capital rotation.
If investors begin favoring sectors such as:
software,
industrial automation,
utilities,
financials,
XLC could underperform despite posting positive earnings growth.
This type of relative underperformance is common in late-cycle sector rotations.
7. High capital expenditures
Meta and Alphabet are investing heavily in:
AI data centers;
GPUs;
networking;
cloud infrastructure.
If these investments continue growing faster than revenue, free cash flow margins could come under pressure.
8. Slower user growth
Many communication platforms have reached very high market penetration.
Future growth increasingly depends on:
monetization;
pricing;
engagement.
This is generally harder than simply adding new users.
What would invalidate the bearish thesis?
If price returns above 200 MA
This short position is part of a diversified portfolio, you can follow my track record at signature links
Regards 
Short
Long
Long
3 Chart Habits That Separate Consistent Traders from Lucky OnesWe built Colony Trading around a simple belief: trading performance is a skill, and skill shows up in habits, not hot streaks. Here are three charting habits that consistently separate disciplined traders from lucky ones — in any market, real or simulated.
1. Mark your levels before the session, not during it. Disciplined traders draw their support and resistance zones before making a single trade. When price reaches a level, the decision was already made — they're executing a plan, not reacting to a candle.
2. Use fewer indicators, more deliberately. Strong traders typically run 1–3 indicators they deeply understand (usually volume plus one momentum tool), not ten overlapping ones. An indicator you can't explain is noise with extra steps.
3. Size positions around invalidation, not conviction. The question isn't "how sure am I?" — it's "where am I wrong, and how much does it cost to find out?" Traders who define the exit before the entry survive the losing streaks that eliminate everyone else.
These are the habits we built our own skill-based simulated trading platform around — no real capital at risk while you build the discipline. Chart your levels, know your tools, define your risk.
— Logan Mullins, founder of Colony Trading 
Education
SPY tags the expected move high, then stalls —750.98 is the lineComing out of the long weekend, options had priced a wide day — an expected move band of 738.58 – 750.98. The gap-up ran straight into the EM high, rejected, and price is now sitting just underneath it.
Below 750.98, the band edge is doing its job — that was the boundary of what the market paid for going into today, and the first tag drew sellers. A reclaim and hold above puts the tape in "moving more than priced" territory, with PDH 751.31 right overhead as the next test. Below, Thursday's close at 744.78 is the middle of the range, with the EM low at 738.58 as the far edge.
FOMC Wednesday 2:00 PM ET — expect positioning to tighten into it and a wider band that day.
The expected move is a probability range, not a wall — price closes beyond it about one day in three. Levels are context. Trade your own plan.
Plotted with my SPY/SPX Expected Move script.
-Janice 
Long
Long 
Long
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 27 of 2026 (06-10 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Last Week's Recap
We only took one trade on SPY last week. It came on Tuesday after price successfully broke out of the Chop Zone we had identified in the Weekly Market Outlook.
1 trade. 1 win.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
"UA CAPITAL EXECUTION/MANAGEMENT RECAP "
Week 26 of 2026 marked another green week for UA CAPITAL, extending our streak to 13 consecutive profitable weeks. We have now gone the entire year without a single red week.
Markets spent the first half of the week grinding slowly higher. In our published outlooks, we explained that we had no intention of trading inside the Chop Zone, which also aligned with a major Cluster Gamma Wall carrying extremely high total delta exposure. Our expectation was simple: price needed to leave this range before offering a high probability opportunity. Because of that, we stayed patient and did not take any trades on Monday.
Tuesday finally delivered the breakout we had been waiting for. The UA CAPITAL Trading Desk was immediately notified through our chat, and we entered intraday scalp positions across SPY, QQQ, and Nasdaq futures. We closed those positions later in the session with a solid profit ahead of Wednesday's employment data, choosing not to carry unnecessary event risk overnight.
The execution itself highlighted another advantage of our CC Model. Rather than trading each index independently, we first waited for confirmation on SPY before using the correlation between SPY and QQQ to execute both positions simultaneously. This confirmation based approach continues to filter out many false signals while significantly improving execution quality. It has become one of the core trading frameworks inside the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk because we focus on reacting to confirmed price action instead of predicting market direction.
Our SPY entry was executed around 743.5 and closed near 747.5, producing another clean intraday winner.
On Wednesday we remained completely inactive. Thursday's Non Farm Payroll report represented a major macro catalyst, and we believed it was better to wait until that uncertainty had passed before opening new index positions.
The only adjustment we made was hedging our existing swing and spot long positions by purchasing VIX call options together with the Trading Desk. When Thursday's employment report came in stronger than expected, markets avoided the sharp selloff we had hedged against. We closed the VIX positions for a small loss, which simply became the cost of insurance. From a money management perspective, it was exactly the type of disciplined hedge we aim to execute.
Thursday's stronger than expected data pushed markets modestly higher during premarket trading. Since none of our predefined SPY or QQQ scenarios were triggered, we once again avoided forcing trades. Instead, we shifted our focus toward individual equities.
Equities Play
Last week I mentioned that capital could begin rotating out of semiconductors and memory names into large cap technology. During the week, that rotation became increasingly visible.
In Thursday's premarket update, I told the Trading Desk that I intended to build long exposure in AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL.
At the open we executed exactly as planned. AAPL and MSFT generated strong gains, while GOOGL was stopped out near breakeven.
AAPL advanced approximately $13, producing a gain of around 4.4%.
MSFT gained roughly $6, representing approximately a 1.6% move.
The profits generated from these large cap equity trades were highly satisfying.
Meanwhile, memory names such as MU declined sharply, exactly as anticipated. However, because most of the weakness occurred during premarket trading, they never offered attractive retest opportunities for short entries.
Overall, it was another successful week. Although the Risk Index had been expecting a healthy retracement, the stronger than expected NFP report prevented that correction from developing. Instead, we adapted quickly, focused on the strongest sectors, generated solid profits through our equity positions, and added another winning SPY trade to finish the week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bearish environment. That means additional downside remains possible over the near term. However, the longer term structure continues to remain firmly risk on, suggesting that quality demand zones should still produce attractive swing long opportunities.
Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will look for short opportunities from the primary swing resistance area while remaining prepared to buy confirmed reactions from our predefined demand zones. The longer term bias remains bullish.
Scenarios / Strategies
Short Scenario
Swing Area (754.5)
This area represents the primary Call Wall and our highest probability supply zone. If price retests this level and shows clear rejection, it can provide a quality short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest followed by a bearish one hour candle closing back below the level.
Targets: 751 → 747 → 743 → 740
Invalidation: Hourly close above 757.
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (747)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish one hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets:750 → 754.5 → 757 → 760
Invalidation: Hourly close below 743.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (735)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone.
Targets: 740 → 743 → 747 → 750 → 754.5
Invalidation: Daily close below 730.
Position Management Rules
-Entry model: Aggressive: one hour candle close above or below the designated level.Conservative: daily candle close above or below the designated level.
-Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
-After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade.
-A reaction from the level must be be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss.
Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice. SPY's Bull Anchor Is Cracked For A Third Session Now.SPY's Bull Anchor Is Cracked For A Third Session Now.
SPY opens the week at 747.86, back near the top of the range it has been stuck in, with the same standoff running into a fifth session. The bullish anchor that has held the market up for months is carrying a warning flag for a third straight session - the longest it has doubted itself all cycle - but it still hasn't actually broken. The near-term read has flipped back to short even as price sits near the highs. Nothing has resolved; the range has just gotten tighter.
Resistance: 746.91-751.24 - the band that keeps rejecting
Key resistance: 756.68 - the cycle high
Current price: 747.86
Support: 740.44 - the shelf that has to hold
Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The crack finally breaks. The 223-bar bull print has flagged itself for three sessions running, the daily short setup holds at 3/5, and the near-term read just flipped short again with price up near resistance - a bearish divergence. A rejection at 751 and a loss of 740.44 opens 736.50 then 732.45, and the standoff that has held five sessions resolves down.
The anchor holds and breaks out. If the bull print sheds its flag and price clears 751 on volume, the 756 cycle high opens. But this has been the losing side of the range for a week - every push into the band has been sold, and volume at the 22nd percentile is not what carries a breakout. The burden is on the buyers to finally take 751.
Five sessions, the same range, and now the bull anchor doubting itself for a third straight day while the near-term read flips short into resistance. Price near the highs with conviction turning down is the kind of divergence that usually resolves toward the weaker hand. But the print has to break - it has been cracked all week without giving.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Research 06.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.43 +0.46%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +8.30 +1.16%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
09:30 USA – S&P Services /Composite PMI
10:00 USA – ISM Services PMI
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:SPCX shares will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index today.
NASDAQ:NVDA / NASDAQ:ASML : manufacturing giant Foxconn reported blockbuster Q2 revenue that beat Wall Street estimates
NASDAQ:MU facing a proposed class-action lawsuit alleging DRAM manufacturers coordinated production to keep prices elevated
NASDAQ:IREN : reports revealed AI giant Anthropic floated a private tender to buy a massive 1.4 gigawatts of data center capacity in Australia, where IREN has a premier infrastructure footprint.
NASDAQ:HOOD : following the official July 4th launch of the "Trump Accounts" app, a new government-backed child savings program developed in partnership with Robinhood.
NYSE:CRCL : Galaxy's Research Head Alex Thorn Casts Doubt On Open USD Even As His Firm Signs On As A Member
NYSE:NIO : Premium SUV Demand Lifts Average Selling Price To $65,300
NYSE:AEG : completes strategic reset as UAE assets start generating revenue
Sadot Group NASDAQ:SDOT Sells Sadot Latam To Dream America Marketing Services
NASDAQ:FXHO : after recent SEC filings showed increased control by the company’s CEO, following a recent 1-for-16 reverse split aimed at maintaining Nasdaq compliance.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
Other news:
NASDAQ:ALAR : fell after the company said it decided to temporarily pause certain network services, following a recent incident involving its NetNut network.
NYSE:ZIM : Barclays kept its Underweight rating despite raising the price target to $17.
NYSE:IHG : Announces Transaction in Own Shares
Supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo warned that NASDAQ:AAPL highly anticipated foldable iPhone could face severe supply and potentially miss its initial September launch window.
‼️ Additional
South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix will list in the US this week in a $29 billion offering. It will be the largest US listing by a foreign company this year.
-- SK Hynix is currently the most valuable company in South Korea.
-- The listing will take place on July 10 under the ticker $SKHY. Its home-market ticker on the Korean exchange is 000660.KS / KRX: 000660.
Nearly one million retail investors lost $3.81 billion on Trump’s TRUMP memecoin — NYT.
The CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill was not signed on July 4, as the White House had initially planned.
-- Many now expect it to be signed in the second half of July or early August — monitoring.
🏢 IPO
NASDAQ:CBAI – Coolbit Technologies Ltd.
Company operates in bitcoin mining using leased Bitmain miners hosted at third-party facilities in the U.S. and Canada. Revenue comes from contributing hashrate to mining pools and receiving bitcoin rewards. Current model is asset-light through leasing and hosting agreements, but the company may use IPO proceeds to buy miners directly or potentially acquire its own mining facility.
Price: $4.00–$5.00
Shares: 5.0M
Raised: ~$22.5M
LTM:
Revenue: $15.3M
Net Income: $1.7M
Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:MARA , NASDAQ:RIOT , NASDAQ:CLSK , NASDAQ:IREN , NASDAQ:CIFR , NASDAQ:HIVE
NASDAQ:RIKU – Riku Dining Group
Company operates and franchises Japanese-style restaurants in Canada and Hong Kong. In Canada, it runs 4 Ajisen Ramen restaurants and franchises 9 more across Ontario. In Hong Kong, it operates 7 restaurants under Yakiniku Kakura, Yakiniku 802 and Ufufu Cafe. Business is small but already profitable, with growth tied to restaurant expansion and franchise economics.
Price: $4.00–$6.00
Shares: 5.0M
Raised: ~$25.0M
LTM:
Revenue: $18.7M
Net Income: $1.04M
Comparable public companies: NASDAQ:KRUS , SEED_ALEXDRAYM_BIGMAC:YOSH , NASDAQ:GENK , NYSE:DRI , NYSE:YUMC
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:ASML NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:IREN NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL NYSE:NIO NYSE:AEG NASDAQ:SDOT NASDAQ:FXHO NASDAQ:ALAR NYSE:ZIM NYSE:IHG NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:SKHY $TRUMP NASDAQ:CBAI NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:RIOT NASDAQ:CLSK NASDAQ:CIFR NASDAQ:HIVE NASDAQ:RIKU NASDAQ:KRUS SEED_ALEXDRAYM_BIGMAC:YOSH NASDAQ:GENK NYSE:DRI NYSE:YUMC
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
$SPY: FOMC minutes Wed into the September top setupFOMC minutes from Warsh's first meeting land Wednesday July 8 at 14:00 ET, into a tape that just slid the hike from October to December after June NFP printed +57k on 7/2 (~half of consensus, private +49k, unemployment 4.2%).
The near-term catalyst sits in front of a September convergence: SPY's monthly Time@Mode has room only into that month, and the oil-to-earnings lag from the late-February Hormuz supply shock lands the corporate-earnings drag on the same date. Two independent variables, one date.
Near-term SPY is constructive above the first Warsh FOMC key level, but the weekly uptrend trigger is up at 767.1 this week (a range-expansion projection off last week's close), a good move higher and no longer in reach, and QQQ turned bearish on the daily into the 7/2 close, so the dispersion inside the majors is live. Read this bounce as a relief to trade with a leash, not a new bull leg.
Behind the tape, oil flipped from shortage to glut: crude round-tripped to pre-war (~$72-73 Brent) and the disruption tail moved to Russian diesel (the Northwest Europe crack holds above $40, a potential export ban the real products-led spike risk). The oil-to-earnings lag cuts both ways: the late-Feb spike's drag lands ~September (the top), the round-trip lower projects a tailwind ~Dec 2026-Jan 2027.
Signals scorecard sits low-conviction on the count (BULL 5 / BEAR 4) but three factors past kill lines: P/E 26.7x over 25, CPI 4.2% over 4.0, Junk Spreads 2.75 under the 3.0 contrarian line (credit pricing zero risk premium). Own cheap optionality over the directional bet.
Best of luck,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie. Long 
BITU - Leverage Up? There are a lot of signals flashing that indicate Bitcoin is likely to see a significant rally soon. Because of this I want to take a look at some related crypto ETFs that could also experience significant rallies. For this post I will be focusing on BITU, ProShares Ultra 2x Leveraged Bitcoin ETF, which aims to offer 2x the daily performance of Bitcoin.
Other ETFs such as ProShares Ultra ETH 2x ETF (ETHT) is also worth mentioning, but since most of the market structure looks similar across crypto related leveraged ETFs, I will be focusing solely on BITU for this post.
For my supporting analysis on Bitcoin, view these ideas:
Now let's dive into how BITU's market structure looks. Of course it is very similar to Bitcoin since it is designed to mirror Bitcoin's daily performance, but the structure developing here is compelling in its own right.
First, BITU has a daily bullish divergence with two perfect bounces from oversold conditions forming the bottom.
The next thing to note is the volume spikes (orange circles). This ETF has consistently seen significant volume spikes whenever major lows have formed. Right now I am seeing volume increase once again, and it should continue to pick up as the broader market rises and ETFs like IBIT begin to see renewed inflows.
The last signal worth pointing out is the 3D doji that printed right at the low. The RSI on the 3D chart is another significant indicator worth watching, as it is also signaling that a major reversal back to the upside is likely.
Finally, leveraged ETFs like BITU should be complemented by IBIT's own structure. IBIT appears to have formed a low, as I outlined in a previous idea. If that holds true, inflows should begin returning to the fund and provide additional fuel to boost the leveraged ETFs like BITU alongside it. You can view that idea here:
SPY: $746 Breakout or $742 Trap? Jul 6SPY is coming into the new week near highs, but the setup is mixed because the market is balancing slower jobs data, Fed minutes, and rotation under the surface. Schwab reported June jobs came in at only 57,000 versus expectations, with unemployment at 4.2%, while SPX was around 7,483 and VIX near 15.98 in the July 2 update. The Fed calendar shows the next FOMC meeting is July 28-29, and Fed minutes are typically released three weeks after the policy decision. Barron’s also noted this week is relatively quiet before earnings season gets stronger, with Fed minutes as one of the key macro events.
SPY is still holding near the upper range, but the chart is not a clean chase setup yet. The 1H chart shows price consolidating under resistance after a strong move from the $716 area into the $752 zone. The 15m chart shows a sharp pullback into $740, then a recovery back toward $746.
The market still has bullish momentum, but the GEX setup shows puts are heavier right now, so I would let the key levels decide.
The 1H chart shows SPY holding above the prior breakout area, but price is still under the upper trendline resistance near $750-$753. The recent rejection from $751-$752 created a short-term lower high, but buyers defended the $740 area quickly.
This means SPY is still range-bound between $740 and $752. A break above $748-$750 can bring $751-$753 back into play. A failure under $742 can bring $740 and $735 into play.
Key Levels
$755: Upper GEX call zone and possible upside magnet if $752 breaks.
$752-$753: Major resistance from the 1H chart.
$751.31: Recent 15m high.
$750: Main GEX call resistance and psychological level.
$748-$749: First upside resistance zone.
$746: HVL / current battle zone.
$745.50-$746: Current price area.
$742: First downside support and put level.
$740.03: Recent 15m low.
$735: Lower GEX put zone if $740 fails.
15m Chart
The 15m chart shows SPY sold off from $751.31 down to $740.03, then recovered back into the $745-$746 zone. Price also broke above the short-term descending trendline, which is constructive.
But the recovery is now testing the HVL area around $746. This is the decision zone. If SPY holds above $746, bulls can push toward $748 and $750. If SPY fails at $746 and loses $742, the chart can roll back toward $740.
GEX Positioning
The GEX chart shows SPY sitting almost exactly near the $746 HVL. This level can act like a magnet or pin area if volume stays light.
Puts are around 62.4%, so the options positioning is not fully bullish. This means SPY can still bounce, but upside needs real buying pressure above $746-$748.
The main upside GEX levels are $748, $749, $750, $752, and $755. If SPY clears $748 with volume, $750 becomes the next magnet. Above $750, $752-$755 becomes the next upside zone.
Below price, $742 is the first put/support level. If $742 breaks, $740 becomes the next support. Below $740, the next downside magnet is $735.
IVR is around 36.1 and IV average is around 16.8, so premium is not extremely hot, but SPY can still move if macro headlines or Fed minutes shift expectations.
Bullish Scenario
If SPY holds above $746 and breaks $748 with volume, the first upside target is $750. Above $750, the next target is $751.31-$752. If $752 breaks cleanly, SPY can push toward $755.
A strong bullish confirmation would be a hold above $750 after the breakout.
Bearish Scenario
If SPY fails at $746 and loses $742, I would be careful. That would show buyers failed to defend the current HVL zone.
Below $742, the first target is $740. If $740 breaks, the GEX downside opens toward $735.
Trade Consideration
For me, the clean long setup is above $748 with volume. I would not chase while SPY is stuck around $745-$746.
The clean bearish setup is below $742. If $742 breaks and fails to recover, $740 and $735 become the next downside levels.
Conclusion
SPY is still holding near the highs, but the setup is not clean enough to chase. The 15m chart recovered well from $740, but GEX shows heavier puts and price is sitting right near the $746 HVL.
Above $748 favors continuation toward $750, $752, and $755. Below $742 opens the door back to $740 and possibly $735.
This is a level-to-level setup. Let $748 decide the breakout, and let $742 decide the breakdown. Education 
Samsung Electronics vs $SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) part 2
Samsung Electronics vs NASDAQ:SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) - time for a bigger correction?
Samsung accounts for roughly 9% of AMEX:EEM , one of my main long-term portfolio positions, so I follow it closely. Unfortunately, the chart isn't looking great right now. After a roughly 600% rally over the past year and a series of record quarterly results, the daily chart looks quite close to confirming a larger correction.
On the weekly chart, every new high over the past few months has come with a bearish RSI divergence. The daily chart tells a similar story and is starting to resemble a distribution phase. There's a breakdown from a Rising Wedge, a failed attempt to reclaim the pattern, price has slipped below the yellow 50 SMA, and we've now printed the first lower low - at least if we count the wicks.
The key question now is whether price can make a higher high. If not, there's a good chance we're seeing a dead cat bounce before another leg lower. The green 200 MA is still bullish but sits much lower around 176K, while the measured breakdown target from the wedge comes in near 207K.
Samsung reports earnings in a few weeks. The last several quarters have all delivered record results and earnings beats, yet the chart is telling a different story. We'll see how the earnings and, more importantly, the guidance look. Will expectations be raised once again?
The same pattern is visible in NASDAQ:SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF). It has also broken down from a very similar Rising Wedge, accompanied by bearish RSI divergences. The main support is now the yellow 50 MA around $579.5.
In SMH's case, the distribution thesis is reinforced by the Elliott Wave structure and heavy selling volume.
So the chart of the Korean semiconductor giant looks remarkably similar to the chart of the leading U.S. semiconductor ETF. Add a strengthening TVC:DXY on top of that, and it's hard not to argue that the entire semiconductor sector may be entering a global distribution phase.
If we're indeed moving into a correction, it will probably last as long as the U.S. dollar remains strong. Naturally, Samsung is likely to feel that pressure even more than most U.S. semiconductor companies.
For now, it looks like better buying opportunities may appear over the coming months, in my opinion.
💙👽 
Short
Weekly Bias — 6 July3 important things are converging
20d EMA (~$721)
50d EMA (~$709–$710)
Multiple AVWAPs from swing lows (~$710–$713)
Markets often react strongly when multiple independent support measures align
AVWAPs from swing lows represent the average cost basis of buyers from important lows
The fact that NASDAQ:QQQ is still above or sitting on these AVWAPs suggests buyers from those pivots are still profitable
If those AVWAPs begin to fail one after another, the probability of a larger correction rises quickly
AVWAP from the ATH Is particularly interesting given price is below it, meaning everyone who bought around the ATH is underwater
This AVWAP often becomes dynamic resistance until reclaimed, so expect repeated selling around $728–$735 before a true breakout
When several indicators point to the same area, the level tends to matter much more than any single trendline
If buyers can defend $709–$713 & reclaim the 20d EMA (~$721), it's likely this is a consolidation within a broader uptrend
If confluence fails on expanding volume, the odds shift toward a deeper retracement into the $690–$675 area before the next durable base forms
The loss of the 20d EMA on the NASDAQ:QQQ shifts the short-term trend bearish, but the intermediate trend remains bullish while above the 50d EMA
A move back above $718–$720 would improve the short-term outlook
~$748 remains the major breakout level
The rising 50d EMA (~$700) creates a strong confluence support area
The June swing low area (~$685) is roughly where we should expect stronger institutional buying if $700 fails
AMEX:SPY continues to show relative strength
The pivot (~$742) & the 20d EMA almost overlap
Above $742–$744 favors buyers
Below it, the path opens toward $724
AMEX:SPY is still in a healthier technical position than NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:IWM remains the strongest structurally
The current pullback has only brought price back toward the 20d EMA
Typical of a healthy trend rather than a trend reversal
All 3 ETFs would be trading below their 20d EMAs & threatening their 50d EMAs if this were a broader correction; instead, NASDAQ:QQQ is the weakest, while AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM are holding up relatively well so still looks more like sector-specific pressure (especially in large-cap tech) than broad market liquidation
Bullish (≈55%)
Reclaim $718–$721 (20d EMA)
Hold above that on a daily closing basis
Challenge $735, then ATHs
Would indicate the recent pullback was a successful retest
Neutral (≈30%)
NASDAQ:QQQ oscillates between $700–$721
This would allow the 20d EMA to flatten & the 50d EMA to continue rising, resolving the overextension through time rather than price
Bearish (≈15%)
A decisive close below $702–$700 (50d EMA) would be the first meaningful break of intermediate support
Would make $685 the next high-probability downside objective
Avoid chasing downside here; rather, wait for 1 of 2 higher-probability setups
A reclaim & close back above $718–$721, which would suggest buyers have regained control & increase the odds of a move back toward $735–$748
A decisive daily close below $700, ideally accompanied by expanding volume, which would strengthen the case for a move toward $685
Right now, NASDAQ:QQQ is trading in the middle of an important support cluster rather than in open space — historically, that tends to produce more choppy, 2-sided trading until one side wins control
The most important level remains $712–$721
NASDAQ:QQQ finished almost exactly in highest volume node, 20d EMA neighborhood, prior breakout area, 82.6% retracement & just above the 50d EMA (~$702)
This is an exceptionally strong area of confluence
It still looks more like a backtest
CBOE:COR1M near these depressed levels means the market is not pricing a broad, systemic risk event
Stocks are behaving independently rather than all moving together in panic
Historically, this environment is more consistent with consolidation or rotation than the early stages of a major bear leg
CBOE:DSPX is still climbing
Indicates investors continue paying for upside participation
If traders truly expected a sharp correction, you'd usually see CBOE:DSPX weaken materially while downside protection demand accelerated
The obvious buy-side liquidity remains
NASDAQ:QQQ $748.65
AMEX:SPY $760.40
AMEX:IWM $302.70
Sell-side liquidity sits around
NASDAQ:QQQ $703 → $686
AMEX:SPY $732 → $723
AMEX:IWM $286 → $278
The market is trapped between those pools
All 3 ETFs are primary bullish in an intermediate range correction
Higher highs → higher lows
The sequence I would expect is NASDAQ:QQQ holds $710–$715 → reclaims $721 → recovers $730 → $740 → retest ATH around ~$750
If NASDAQ:QQQ closes below $702 (50d EMA) → expect $700 → $694 → $686 → $675
Would represent a true market structure shift rather than a simple pullback
The first hour on Monday should tell us a lot
55–60% sideways consolidation between $710 & $725 as momentum resets
25–30% bullish breakout toward $740–$749 after buyers reclaim the 20d EMA
15–20% bearish breakdown below the 50d EMA, targeting $694–$686
The key takeaway is that price has weakened more than the internals have
Yields are falling, the TVC:VIX remains contained, breadth is still healthy enough & the correction has brought NASDAQ:QQQ back into a dense area of accepted value
Until the market loses the $702–$710 support cluster on a closing basis with expanding volume, the larger uptrend remains intact
The leadership beneath the index is becoming much more bifurcated, but the weight of the evidence still favors buying weakness once momentum stabilizes, but not chasing strength until leadership broadens
1. Sector Rotation
AMEX:XLF (Financials)
AMEX:XLV (Healthcare)
AMEX:XLP (Staples)
AMEX:XLB (Materials)
These sectors are either making fresh highs or holding above the 20d EMA
Money is not leaving equities, it's rotating
AMEX:XLK
Technology is pulling back, expected
NASDAQ:QQQ follows AMEX:XLK
AMEX:XLC
Communications is also weakening
That's mostly NASDAQ:META & NASDAQ:GOOGL pressure
AMEX:XLY
Consumer discretionary rolled over
Largely NASDAQ:TSLA & NASDAQ:AMZN
This is a late-cycle sector rotation — not broad liquidation
2. Leadership
NASDAQ:AAPL
Actually constructive
MACD improving
RSI recovering
Price reclaiming upper retracement
NASDAQ:AAPL may become the next leadership stock
NASDAQ:AMZN
Quietly improving
Higher probability breakout than breakdown
NASDAQ:GOOGL
Probably the strongest chart
RSI rising
MACD crossed
Price almost at highs
Bullish
NASDAQ:MSFT
Still one of the strongest
No concern
Neutral
NASDAQ:META
Pulling back after huge run
Healthy
NASDAQ:AVGO
Still correcting
Needs time
NASDAQ:NVDA
Still below declining averages
RSI weak
MACD negative
No confirmed bullish reversal
Since NASDAQ:NVDA is almost 9% of NASDAQ:QQQ , this matters
NASDAQ:AMD
Very weak
Lower highs
Momentum fading
NASDAQ:MU
Still digesting earnings
Momentum rolling over
NASDAQ:TSLA
Probably the weakest mega cap
Momentum deteriorating
Failed breakout
3. Semis
Semis are still outperforming NASDAQ:QQQ , but the ratio has begun rolling over
Suggests leadership is no longer accelerating
Not bearish
Just less explosive
Historically this usually produces 2–6 weeks of index consolidation
4. Software
Software may begin replacing semis as leadership
Exactly what healthy bull markets do
Leadership rotates
NASDAQ:QQQ rallied roughly 34% without any meaningful correction, so a 5–8% pullback would be entirely normal, even a decline to $680 would still leave the long-term trend intact
Price made a marginally higher high; meanwhile, several leaders made lower RSI highs, weaker MACD & poorer breadth which is a hidden bearish divergence beneath the index
It doesn't necessarily imply a bear market, but it does argue against expecting an immediate V-shaped breakout to new highs
A daily close below $700 would materially weaken the bullish case & would shift the odds toward a test of $694–$686, where multiple technical references converge
Defensive & financial sectors are absorbing capital while several of the biggest growth names digest large gains & that kind of internal rotation often extends the life of a bull trend — the missing ingredient right now is semi leadership so until NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AVGO & NASDAQ:AMD begin improving together, it's difficult to expect NASDAQ:QQQ to break decisively above ATHs; however, if software ( CBOE:IGV ) continues strengthening while semis stabilize & NASDAQ:QQQ holds the $702–$715 support cluster, the odds would increasingly favor another advance toward new highs later in July rather than a transition into a deeper correction 
Long
