Fed blackout; AI-capex cluster, tariff sunset 7/24Four dated events inside five days carry the tape into the July 28-29 FOMC and the Fed is in blackout the whole week. USTR Section 301 determinations on Monday 7/20 (weakly sourced date, verify). The midweek after-close earnings cluster (TSLA, TXN, NOW and IBM's formal print Tuesday, GOOGL the Wednesday marquee) is the first live test of the AI-capex top read that fired on 7/17 across the semis and hyperscaler shorts.
The SOX closed the week -12.5% and over 20% off its late-June high, bear-market territory, after China's Moonshot open model. Section 122 sunsets 00:01 ET Friday 7/24, taking the US effective tariff rate from about 11% to about 8.2% absent a Congressional extension (no extension bill pending). Friday 9:45 the Flash PMIs land, composite consensus ~51.9 (July), June manufacturing 55.7 and services 51.3. Composite over 50 keeps the growth crack un-tripped and the higher-for-longer, no-cut regime intact.
On Saturday I posted the QQQ weekly-top call: QQQ closed the week -4.16% at 695.33, back under the first Warsh FOMC key level 731.62 (my median of the event range, the price that bakes in expectations plus reaction plus digested positioning around the regime-reset FOMC). Weekly signal projects five downside targets stacking to 468. Structure rhymes with the January 2022 top. Invalidation is a weekly close over 731.62. SPY closed under its Warsh line 745.41 too, so the AI-capex re-rate is broader than one index.
Energy stays the receipt: Brent through $90 on the Monday reopen on an open US-Iran shooting war around the Strait; gasoline long half booked and a runner on (products over crude); NWE diesel crack a record ~$60-66 on Russia's producer-inclusive export ban. Signals scorecard: BULL 4 / BEAR 3 / NEUTRAL 11, two factors past kill lines (P/E 26.7x over 25, Junk Spreads 2.71 under 3.0). VIX 18.4 is sub-20 into the tariff binary and the AI-capex cluster; own cheap optionality over the directional bet.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie. 
Short
BITO - Forecasting a Huge Move SoonOne really important BTC ETF chart I want to lay out is BITO, ProShares 1x Bitcoin ETF. This ETF remains highly traded for short term tactical positioning, which is exactly why it is worth analyzing right now.
It appears active market participants are expecting a significant move for Bitcoin very soon, and that is showing up clearly in how they are positioning within this ETF.
You can see this through the rapidly increasing volume. For most of its life, BITO traded well under 100 million shares per week. Toward the end of 2025 that began ramping up above 100 million shares per week, and volume has since accelerated even further.
Last week, BITO recorded total volume of just under 2 billion shares! What makes this particularly notable is not just the size of the number, but the pattern behind it. Volume increased every single day that week without exception.
Monday, July 13: 277,275,900 shares
Tuesday, July 14: 407,703,000 shares
Wednesday, July 15: 496,250,000 shares
Thursday, July 16: 553,007,500 shares
Friday, July 17: 633,367,473 shares
Volume more than doubled from Monday to Friday alone, with each day building on the last.
This surge is likely tied directly to the speculation around a significant low being formed at $57,800 for Bitcoin. I want to outline a few of my recent ideas that support what BITO is currently signaling through this volume surge.
First, I outlined ProShares' 2x leveraged ETF market structure a couple weeks ago. That idea can be found here:
Even in that idea I noted slightly increasing volume at the time, but nowhere near what is currently being seen on BITO.
I also previously pointed out that IBIT's low was likely in. It may not yet be the full bear market low, but it has acted as a significant pivot low so far and should continue to hold that role for some time. Review that idea here:
For the broader BTC analysis supporting this thesis, view these ideas:
SPY Is One Point From The Level That Opens The Lean.SPY Is One Point From The Level That Opens The Lean.
SPY held 740.44 exactly as flagged and has bounced to 747.16 - one point under the 748 reclaim named on Friday as the trigger. The setup underneath has firmed considerably: conviction is top-quartile, the thesis is a long, structure is bull transitional, and the entry signal is forming. This is the one instrument where a confirmed break carries a real edge, and this is the closest the setup has come to actually triggering. It has not triggered yet. 748 is a reclaim on a close, not a poke. Neutral until it clears.
Resistance: 748.00 - the trigger level
Key resistance: 751.00, then the 755.66 ceiling
Current price: 747.16
Support: 745.00 - first support
Key support: 740.44 - the line that held
Structural floor: 739.34 - the swept low
Two paths from here:
748 clears and the long setup triggers. A confirmed reclaim with conviction already top-quartile completes the shakeout off 740.44 and puts 751 and the 755.66 ceiling back in play. This is the setup we have been waiting on for two weeks - and it needs the close, not the touch.
It stalls under 748 and retests the floor. Failing one point short of the trigger, with the ceiling untested and volatility extended, sends it back toward 745 and then 740.44. A second test of that floor would be weaker than the first.
SPY did everything asked of it - held the line, bounced, built the setup. It is now one point from the trigger. A confirmed reclaim of 748 is the first genuinely leanable event in two weeks. Short of that, it stays Neutral.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Research 20.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +3.74 +0.50%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +7.55 +1.09%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
10:00 USA – Leading Index (June)
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:DPZ NYSE:DX NYSE:AMC
Other news:
NASDAQ:HUT signs $9.8 billion AI data center lease, fully commercializes Texas campus
NYSE:ACHR and Anduril unveil autonomous aircraft platform for defense, commercial markets
NASDAQ:IREN Signs $2.8bn in New Customer Contracts with Leading AI Developers, Raises 2026 ARR Target to over $4bn
NYSE:BABA unveiled a preview version of its flagship Large Language Model (LLM) Qwen3.8 Max.
-- The announcement comes shortly after Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter AI model last week that it said could go head-to-head with leading U.S. AI systems.
-- According to Bloomberg, those specifications require far more memory capacity than earlier model generations
-- Memory stocks gain on new AI models launch momentu: NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:WDC
-- Chinese stocks gain on AI momentum: NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:JD
Brookfield and CPP Investments to Buy NYSE:LXP for $5.2 Billion in an all-cash deal
UBS projects the space economy’s TAM at $1.3TN by 2040 : NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:LUNR
NASDAQ:ESLT Awarded Contracts from U.S. Customs and Border Protection Totaling Over $370 Million to Enhance U.S. National Security
NYSE:TSM sees long-term AI chip demand as Arizona investment expands to $265 billion
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
NASDAQ:RYAAY NYSE:HDB
Other news:
NASDAQ:GVH Signs Global Distribution Agreement with DramaBox, Expanding Commercial Distribution to Platform with Over 90 Million Registered Users
NYSE:BURL falling after hitting ATH on friday
‼️ Additional
Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire in order to find ways to revive the temporary agreement between Iran and the US.
-- Mediators are proposing that Iran and the US return to the position that existed before July 9 — ISNA.
-- The US has carried out strikes against Iran for the ninth consecutive night. Iran continues to respond by striking US facilities in the region.
-- A major statement from the Houthis is expected today.
-- #Oil continues to rise: Brent > $90.
NASDAQ:SPCX said the next Starship test flight is scheduled for July 23.
Oracle’s NYSE:ORCL 5-year CDS, the cost of insuring against default on its debt, has hit a record high.
-- Concerns are growing over both the company’s aggressive cash spending and the future profitability of its AI investments, amid the release of Moonshot AI’s new Chinese AI model Kimi K3, which could compete with the largest US AI companies at a lower cost — BBG.
-- Last week, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB-, just one notch above junk status.
🔁 Business Combination / SPAC Deal
NASDAQ:BXBL – BOXABL Inc.
Company develops modular building systems for affordable and fast-to-deploy housing. Its flagship product is the Casita, a 361-square-foot studio unit with kitchen, bathroom and utilities that can unfold on-site in under an hour. BOXABL also offers the smaller Baby Box and is developing stackable / connectable models for larger homes, townhomes and multifamily housing.
Trading Date: July 20, 2026
Key points:
Company has raised $230M+ from 50,000+ investors to date
Core thesis is affordable modular housing, faster construction and factory-built residential units
Main risk is execution: scaling manufacturing, permitting, customer adoption and housing-market cyclicality
Comparable public companies: SET:SKY , NASDAQ:CVCO , NYSE:BLDR , NYSE:IBP , NYSE:TOL , NYSE:LEN
📋 List of tickers involved:
NASDAQ:DPZ NYSE:DX NYSE:AMC NASDAQ:HUT NYSE:ACHR NASDAQ:IREN NYSE:BABA NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:JD NYSE:LXP NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:LUNR NASDAQ:ESLT NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:RYAAY NYSE:HDB NASDAQ:GVH NYSE:BURL NYSE:ORCL NASDAQ:BXBL SET:SKY NASDAQ:CVCO NYSE:BLDR NYSE:IBP NYSE:TOL NYSE:LEN
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (20-24 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
UA CAPITAL RECAP 19.07 | WEEK 13–17 JUL
The execution throughout the week closely followed our published trading plans.
Monday and Tuesday, both SPY and QQQ Long Scenario 1 trades from the Weekly Market Outlook reached profitable outcomes.
Wednesday's updated Tactical Playbook generated new long opportunities in both SPY and QQQ, with both trades closing profitably.
No new trades were taken on Thursday.
Friday's Tactical Playbook successfully identified short opportunities in both SPY and QQQ. Both positions generated multiple partial profit targets and continue to hold small runner positions into next week.
Ahead of Tuesday's CPI release, we also opened VIX hedge positions on Monday afternoon and closed them Tuesday morning for approximately a 36% gain.
In total, seven options trades were executed throughout the week, and all seven finished as winners.
It was an exceptional week from both an execution and risk management perspective, resulting in a 100% winning record across every completed options trade.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
Equities Play
Throughout the week we also continued building medium-term spot positions in selected companies through the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk.
To maintain disciplined risk management, new purchases were limited to only one-quarter of our available buying power, bringing our total deployed capital to approximately 50% of our intended allocation.
Our plan remains unchanged. We intend to continue gradually building these medium-term positions from attractive technical levels with an investment horizon extending into November and December 2026.
The specific names remain exclusive to the private Trading Desk, although our primary focus continues to be concentrated in the technology and semiconductor sectors.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops.
Given the potential for rapid acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (742) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 739.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (732)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 729.
Long Scenario 3
KEY Level 3 (724) This is the third major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: Daily candle close below 721.
Short Scenario
Main Supply (752) This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 757.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: 1-hour candle close above/below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk-free position.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Every scenario has its own invalidation level. Read them carefully before entering a trade.
6. All charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ETH candles may produce inaccurate confirmation signals.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, Tactical SPY/SPX - QQQ outlooks, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid-week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Long
Long 
Weekly Bias — 20 JulyThe picture is more balanced when we take a step back from NASDAQ:QQQ alone, when we look at intermarket leadership, volatility, dispersion & breadth
Bullish (65%)
Short-term trend is corrective
This a correction rather than a new bear leg (~65–70%)
Deeper correction below NASDAQ:QQQ $686 (~30–35%)
Normally, if yields are falling while NASDAQ:QQQ is correcting, I'd expect the correction to become more technical/positioning-driven than macro-driven
VIX at 18.8 deserves respect, but not fear
Below the March spike
Still below the 20–22 level where corrections often accelerate
Front-month futures remain orderly
Volatility is elevated, but we're not seeing panic
COR1M has risen sharply over the last week
Means options traders increasingly expect stocks to move together rather than idiosyncratically
Usually associated with macro hedging, ETF hedging & index selling
It's a yellow flag, not necessarily a red one
DSPX is still trending higher
Higher dispersion means stock selection is still mattering
If dispersion were collapsing while correlation exploded, I'd worry much more about broad index liquidation
Instead, dispersion suggests there's still differentiation underneath the surface
VXN/VIX ratio remains elevated
The options market is demanding relatively more protection for NDX than for the SPX
NASDAQ:QQQ weakest, AMEX:SPY stronger & AMEX:IWM relatively resilient
It's another sign this is concentrated in growth rather than broad market panic
The NDX/NDXE ratio is rolling over
Mega-cap component of NDX has been underperforming the equal-weight version
This is healthy in one sense because it suggests leadership is broadening rather than narrowing
It's also one reason why AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM have been holding up better than NASDAQ:QQQ
The NDFI panel has weakened materially
One of the more bearish breadth signals since it tells me fewer stocks are participating in the rally
It's not a collapse, but it's another indication that internal momentum has cooled
NASDAQ:SMH is still outperforming NASDAQ:QQQ over the larger trend, although that leadership has moderated
As long as semis remain relatively strong, it's difficult to make a strong structural bear case for NDX
Software ( CBOE:IGV ) has been underperforming for months
NDX/SPX has been falling
Again, money rotating away from mega-cap growth
AMEX:SPY remains remarkably healthy
Even after Friday, well above major support around $738–$740
Doesn't look like an index beginning a major bear trend
AMEX:IWM continues to strengthen the "correction, not collapse" argument
It's holding $294–$295, above its major support near $290 rather than new relative lows
If institutions were aggressively de-risking, I'd expect AMEX:IWM to be underperforming
NASDAQ:QQQ remains the weakest
I still think Friday produced a legitimate sell-side liquidity sweep
However, the lack of a strong close back above $700 means it hasn't been validated as a successful bear trap
Intermarket analysis suggest IV is elevated & RV is likely to stay above average, but unless NASDAQ:QQQ loses $686, I still expect RV over the next several sessions to fall short of the extreme front-end premium that was priced before expiration
Bullish
NASDAQ:QQQ holds $693–$695
AMEX:SPY stays above $740
AMEX:IWM holds $293–$294
VIX fails to break 20
NASDAQ:QQQ reclaims $700, then $706
Would make Friday look increasingly like a successful liquidity sweep within a larger continuation pattern
Bearish
NASDAQ:QQQ closes below $693
AMEX:SPY loses $738
AMEX:IWM loses $290
VIX pushes above 20–21
COR1M continues to spike while breadth deteriorates further
Combination would materially increase the probability of a move toward $686 & if that level fails, the next technical support would likely be the 100d EMA near $665
NASDAQ:QQQ by itself looks cautious, but the intermarket evidence is notably less bearish
Falling yields are supportive
AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM continue to show relative resilience
Semis are still outperforming the broader market the larger trend
Volatility is elevated, but not exhibiting panic characteristics
The main concern is breadth, which has weakened & NDX leadership, which has narrowed
I believe the market is closer to the end of a correction rather than the beginning of a sustained bear trend given the broader evidence doesn't support a high-conviction bearish outlook, but the bulls need to prove it this week & reclaim $700–$706 on NASDAQ:QQQ Long 
Long 
SPY: What "No Accumulation" Actually Tells YouMost traders treat indicator silence as absence of information. On a structure tool, silence IS the information.
Structura Accumulate is showing NO ACCUMULATION on SPY's daily chart - the last signal fired 76 bars ago. Here's how to read that.
What the chart shows
Over the past three years, Accumulate marked three zones - each at a major structural low (late 2023, spring 2025, March 2026). Each zone appeared where price was rebuilding around the adaptive low-anchored reference after a meaningful decline. Between those zones: silence. Through entire rallies: silence.
Why the silence matters now
SPY is trading near highs. No new structural base is being built at these levels - and that's exactly what you'd expect. Accumulation is a bottoming behavior; it doesn't happen at the top of an advance. A tool that marked "accumulation" up here would be describing something that structurally doesn't exist.
So the current read is not bearish and not bullish. It's positional: the market is far from where bases are built. What happens next - continued expansion or the start of a new reset - will be visible in structure before it's obvious in price. When a meaningful decline eventually produces a new zone, that will be the signal worth attention. Until then, patience is the position.
The takeaway
A structure tool that stays quiet through a rally isn't broken - it's selective. Three signals in three years, each at a major low, is the point. If your tools give you signals every week, they're describing noise, not structure.
Structura Accumulate is free and public - the framework and full manual are linked in our profile. Education 
QQQ Weekly Top: Is This Jan 2022 Again?Everyone's reading this week's drop in QQQ as a dip to buy in a strong uptrend. Here's what that read misses: the weekly signal already flipped down, price closed under the level it had been defending, and the whole structure rhymes with the January 2022 top.
QQQ printed a -4.16% weekly bar and closed at 695.33, back under the 1st Warsh FOMC key level at 731.62. That level is the median of the price range around a wrecking-ball new Fed chair's first FOMC, so it bakes in the whole event: the expectations going in, the reaction on the day, and the digested read once analysts and real flows had weighed in. It is where the positioning of everyone trading that regime reset settled, which is why the tape keeps defending it. Losing it on the weekly close is the tell. From here the weekly signal projects a sequence of targets stepping lower: 665.25, then 609.61, 558.37, 511.44 and 468.45. This is not happening in isolation. SPY closed the same week under its own Warsh line at 745.41, so the Nasdaq is leading the whole complex down as the AI-capex trade re-rates.
The path from here is two-sided. As long as QQQ holds under 731.62, the targets stay live and the January 2022 analog is the roadmap into the fall, first stop 665.25. The way this call is wrong is simple: a weekly close back above 731.62 reclaims the level and puts the buyable-dip read back on the table.
The weekly signal already turned. 731.62 is the number that proves it wrong.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie. 
Short
QQQ DIAMOND PATTERNBelow $695.25 we get a symmetrical move lower
Diamond patterns typically are symmetrical results.
QQQ is in a corrective consolidation after a strong uptrend, trading below recent highs with momentum indicators tilted mildly bearish but long‑term trend still up.
Chart highlights:
A sharp prior uptrend from late March into early June, followed by a broadening/diamond‑like consolidation pattern with lower highs and higher lows.
Price oscillating inside that diamond and recently slipping toward the lower half, with a projected downside arrow toward the mid‑600s or lower, plus elevated volume spikes on some down days.
This structure suggests distribution/indecision at the highs, where a break of the lower boundary could trigger a deeper correction; conversely, a breakout above the upper boundary would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Current trend and levels
QQQ recently made an all‑time closing high around the mid‑740s in early June 2026 before pulling back.
It is now trading in the low‑710s to mid‑720s range, below that high yet well above its 52‑week low near the mid‑540s, so structurally it remains in a long‑term uptrend despite the pullback.
Over the past year, the average price has been around the low‑600s, showing that current levels are still extended versus the longer‑term mean, which increases the risk of a mean‑reverting correction.
Momentum and short‑term bias
Daily technical readings have shifted from overbought to neutral/bearish, with indicators such as RSI leaning toward “sell” territory, consistent with your idea of a consolidation that may resolve lower.
Recent sessions show lower highs and a series of tests of support zones around the low‑700s, signaling waning buying pressure while sellers sell into strength.
However, volatility remains moderate and there is no evidence yet of a full trend reversal on higher time frames; rather, this looks like an overextended market pausing or correcting within a larger uptrend.
Key support and resistance
Major resistance: the recent high near 745–750; a daily close back above that region would signal the bulls have regained control and would likely invalidate a bearish diamond breakdown.
Near‑term resistance: the mid‑730s, which recent analyses identify as a level that, if reclaimed, opens a retest of the highs.
Immediate support: the low‑700s, where recent lows and volume clusters align; a decisive breakdown here would open the door to the high‑600s and potentially toward the 52‑week price midpoint around the low‑600s. Long
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (13-17 JUL)QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Last Week's Recap
We only took one QQQ trade last week.
Tuesday's Tactical Playbook provided a clean long setup, allowing us to capture a profitable move in both QQQ and NQ futures. No additional QQQ trades were taken for the remainder of the week.
1 trade | 1 win
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL RECAP 12.07 | WEEK 06–10 JUL
Week 27 of 2026 marked our first breakeven week after an incredible run of 13 consecutive deep green weeks. That winning streak, which had lasted since early April, officially came to an end. I want to mention this with complete transparency. While the deep green streak is over, we still have not recorded a single red week year to date. Hopefully a new winning streak begins soon and continues to compound over the coming months.
Markets experienced a healthy pullback during the first half of the week before finding support at lower levels. Part of that weakness was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump announced that peace negotiations with Iran had been suspended and military operations would continue. Those headlines created enough uncertainty to trigger profit taking across the indices.
On Tuesday, the levels published in the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook once again worked with remarkable precision. SPY bounced almost exactly from our predefined area before rallying toward 750, while QQQ and NQ futures provided the cleaner execution. We established long exposure in both QQQ and Nasdaq futures, capturing another profitable trade by following the published plan.
On Wednesday, SPY tested the 740.5 level almost perfectly before closing back above it, allowing long positions to be established from the support zone. Partial profits were taken at 745 and again at 747 during Wednesday and Thursday, following the execution plan exactly as outlined.
Thursday brought a different opportunity. In the Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook published that morning, I outlined a tactical short setup for SPY around the 750–752 supply zone while also identifying a potential bullish continuation scenario for QQQ.
The SPY short failed and was stopped out according to plan. However, the QQQ bullish scenario unfolded almost exactly as anticipated. Since we were already positioned on the SPY short, we decided not to participate in the QQQ long. Looking back, the analysis itself was accurate, but our execution favored the weaker setup. Had we followed the QQQ long instead, another profitable trade would have been available. Sometimes analysis is correct while execution becomes the deciding factor.
The Thursday report also highlighted the possibility of a breakout above 752. That breakout materialized on Friday exactly as anticipated.
Friday's rally was supported by renewed optimism surrounding geopolitical developments as headlines suggested that peace negotiations could resume. Despite the breakout, the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk decided not to participate because the move developed late on Friday afternoon, when option pinning and positioning distortions become much more likely. We preferred to finish the week flat rather than force a late entry.
Overall, the week reflected disciplined execution. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook generated profitable futures and QQQ trades, while the unsuccessful SPY short later in the week offset part of those gains. By respecting predefined stop losses and maintaining disciplined risk management, we finished the week essentially flat.
Although our 13 week deep green streak came to an end, our year to date record remains free of any losing weeks. That consistency is not simply the result of good market analysis. It is the product of disciplined risk management and strict position sizing.
Equities Play
This week we also began building several medium term spot positions together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk.
To maintain flexibility, total exposure was intentionally limited to approximately one quarter of our available buying power.
Over the coming weeks, we plan to continue accumulating positions at predefined technical levels with the intention of holding them into the November–December 2026 timeframe.
The individual names are shared exclusively inside the private Trading Desk, so I will not disclose them publicly. However, the portfolio remains concentrated primarily in technology and semiconductor companies.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bullish environment. Additional upside remains possible over the near term, although the market continues to trade within a broader choppy structure.
The long term algorithm continues to signal a risk on environment, while the medium term outlook still leans slightly bearish.
When these conditions occur simultaneously, volatility typically increases as both buyers and sellers compete for control. Eventually, this type of environment often resolves through either a meaningful correction or a decisive breakout that establishes the next directional trend.
Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will continue looking for confirmed long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At this stage, I believe short positions carry a less attractive risk to reward profile. Should that view change, I will communicate it through the daily Tactical Playbooks.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (715) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: 720 → 725 → 729.5
Invalidation: Daily close below 710.
Long Scenario 2
Put Wall (700) This is the largest negative GEX level. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone.
Targets: 710 → 715 → 720
Invalidation: Daily close below 700.
Long Scenario 3
KEY Level 2 (692) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone.
Targets: 700 → 705 → 710 → 715
Invalidation: Daily close below 681.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
