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July 29th 2026 Market AnalysisThe market continues to show signs of inefficiency. Since my last post, Oil has regained lost ground and is climbing back towards the range. Since traders are digesting geopolitical risk, it is useful to look elsewhere to assess whether this may be a reversion back to the Supply Zone or if there is underlying risk-off positioning. Equity prices are still high, having retreated slightly from ATHs, yet the Equity Risk Premium is extremely weak due to pressure from Real Yields. It is worth noting that Breakevens FRED:T5YIE are not falling sharply like they were in May and June, while nominal yields TVC:US05Y are showing signs of acceptance. Real yields FRED:DFII5 could weaken if there is divergence between Breakevens and nominal yields, which would provide support to the Equity Risk Premium. FX is reflecting yield seeking and positioning in favor of strong Oil. I would consider this risk-on with a geopolitical caveat. Lastly, my market structure dashboard shows that the market has been paying up for Volatility protection over the last few sessions, notably more so in the form of convexity protection ( CBOE:VVIX ). Skew is crowded NASDAQ:SDEX and the market is already expecting low breadth, so there is liquidity if expensive protection is no longer needed. Macro Dashboard FX Dashboard Swing Dashboard Structure Dashboard
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ap769
Weekly Bias — 20 JulyThe picture is more balanced when we take a step back from NASDAQ:QQQ alone, when we look at intermarket leadership, volatility, dispersion & breadth Bullish (65%) Short-term trend is corrective This a correction rather than a new bear leg (~65–70%) Deeper correction below NASDAQ:QQQ $686 (~30–35%) Normally, if yields are falling while NASDAQ:QQQ is correcting, I'd expect the correction to become more technical/positioning-driven than macro-driven VIX at 18.8 deserves respect, but not fear Below the March spike Still below the 20–22 level where corrections often accelerate Front-month futures remain orderly Volatility is elevated, but we're not seeing panic COR1M has risen sharply over the last week Means options traders increasingly expect stocks to move together rather than idiosyncratically Usually associated with macro hedging, ETF hedging & index selling It's a yellow flag, not necessarily a red one DSPX is still trending higher Higher dispersion means stock selection is still mattering If dispersion were collapsing while correlation exploded, I'd worry much more about broad index liquidation Instead, dispersion suggests there's still differentiation underneath the surface VXN/VIX ratio remains elevated The options market is demanding relatively more protection for NDX than for the SPX NASDAQ:QQQ weakest, AMEX:SPY stronger & AMEX:IWM relatively resilient It's another sign this is concentrated in growth rather than broad market panic The NDX/NDXE ratio is rolling over Mega-cap component of NDX has been underperforming the equal-weight version This is healthy in one sense because it suggests leadership is broadening rather than narrowing It's also one reason why AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM have been holding up better than NASDAQ:QQQ The NDFI panel has weakened materially One of the more bearish breadth signals since it tells me fewer stocks are participating in the rally It's not a collapse, but it's another indication that internal momentum has cooled NASDAQ:SMH is still outperforming NASDAQ:QQQ over the larger trend, although that leadership has moderated As long as semis remain relatively strong, it's difficult to make a strong structural bear case for NDX Software ( CBOE:IGV ) has been underperforming for months NDX/SPX has been falling Again, money rotating away from mega-cap growth AMEX:SPY remains remarkably healthy Even after Friday, well above major support around $738–$740 Doesn't look like an index beginning a major bear trend AMEX:IWM continues to strengthen the "correction, not collapse" argument It's holding $294–$295, above its major support near $290 rather than new relative lows If institutions were aggressively de-risking, I'd expect AMEX:IWM to be underperforming NASDAQ:QQQ remains the weakest I still think Friday produced a legitimate sell-side liquidity sweep However, the lack of a strong close back above $700 means it hasn't been validated as a successful bear trap Intermarket analysis suggest IV is elevated & RV is likely to stay above average, but unless NASDAQ:QQQ loses $686, I still expect RV over the next several sessions to fall short of the extreme front-end premium that was priced before expiration Bullish NASDAQ:QQQ holds $693–$695 AMEX:SPY stays above $740 AMEX:IWM holds $293–$294 VIX fails to break 20 NASDAQ:QQQ reclaims $700, then $706 Would make Friday look increasingly like a successful liquidity sweep within a larger continuation pattern Bearish NASDAQ:QQQ closes below $693 AMEX:SPY loses $738 AMEX:IWM loses $290 VIX pushes above 20–21 COR1M continues to spike while breadth deteriorates further Combination would materially increase the probability of a move toward $686 & if that level fails, the next technical support would likely be the 100d EMA near $665 NASDAQ:QQQ by itself looks cautious, but the intermarket evidence is notably less bearish Falling yields are supportive AMEX:SPY & AMEX:IWM continue to show relative resilience Semis are still outperforming the broader market the larger trend Volatility is elevated, but not exhibiting panic characteristics The main concern is breadth, which has weakened & NDX leadership, which has narrowed I believe the market is closer to the end of a correction rather than the beginning of a sustained bear trend given the broader evidence doesn't support a high-conviction bearish outlook, but the bulls need to prove it this week & reclaim $700–$706 on NASDAQ:QQQ
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
GLD - Week of July 20thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
AMEX:GLD
by ryani8877
USO (Oil Proxy) - Week of July 20thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
AMEX:USO
by ryani8877
SMH - Week of July 20thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
NASDAQ:SMH
by ryani8877
Market Sector Rotation - Week of July 20thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
AMEX:XLK
by ryani8877
RSP/SPY Ratio - Market Breadth - Week of July 20thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
AMEX:RSP
by ryani8877
SPY: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why: The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the SPY pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
AMEX:SPYLong
by UnitedSignals
4
SPY: What "No Accumulation" Actually Tells YouMost traders treat indicator silence as absence of information. On a structure tool, silence IS the information. Structura Accumulate is showing NO ACCUMULATION on SPY's daily chart - the last signal fired 76 bars ago. Here's how to read that. What the chart shows Over the past three years, Accumulate marked three zones - each at a major structural low (late 2023, spring 2025, March 2026). Each zone appeared where price was rebuilding around the adaptive low-anchored reference after a meaningful decline. Between those zones: silence. Through entire rallies: silence. Why the silence matters now SPY is trading near highs. No new structural base is being built at these levels - and that's exactly what you'd expect. Accumulation is a bottoming behavior; it doesn't happen at the top of an advance. A tool that marked "accumulation" up here would be describing something that structurally doesn't exist. So the current read is not bearish and not bullish. It's positional: the market is far from where bases are built. What happens next - continued expansion or the start of a new reset - will be visible in structure before it's obvious in price. When a meaningful decline eventually produces a new zone, that will be the signal worth attention. Until then, patience is the position. The takeaway A structure tool that stays quiet through a rally isn't broken - it's selective. Three signals in three years, each at a major low, is the point. If your tools give you signals every week, they're describing noise, not structure. Structura Accumulate is free and public - the framework and full manual are linked in our profile.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by StructuraMarkets
QQQ Weekly Top: Is This Jan 2022 Again?Everyone's reading this week's drop in QQQ as a dip to buy in a strong uptrend. Here's what that read misses: the weekly signal already flipped down, price closed under the level it had been defending, and the whole structure rhymes with the January 2022 top. QQQ printed a -4.16% weekly bar and closed at 695.33, back under the 1st Warsh FOMC key level at 731.62. That level is the median of the price range around a wrecking-ball new Fed chair's first FOMC, so it bakes in the whole event: the expectations going in, the reaction on the day, and the digested read once analysts and real flows had weighed in. It is where the positioning of everyone trading that regime reset settled, which is why the tape keeps defending it. Losing it on the weekly close is the tell. From here the weekly signal projects a sequence of targets stepping lower: 665.25, then 609.61, 558.37, 511.44 and 468.45. This is not happening in isolation. SPY closed the same week under its own Warsh line at 745.41, so the Nasdaq is leading the whole complex down as the AI-capex trade re-rates. The path from here is two-sided. As long as QQQ holds under 731.62, the targets stay live and the January 2022 analog is the roadmap into the fall, first stop 665.25. The way this call is wrong is simple: a weekly close back above 731.62 reclaims the level and puts the buyable-dip read back on the table. The weekly signal already turned. 731.62 is the number that proves it wrong. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by IvanLabrie
QQQ DIAMOND PATTERNBelow $695.25 we get a symmetrical move lower Diamond patterns typically are symmetrical results. QQQ is in a corrective consolidation after a strong uptrend, trading below recent highs with momentum indicators tilted mildly bearish but long‑term trend still up. Chart highlights: A sharp prior uptrend from late March into early June, followed by a broadening/diamond‑like consolidation pattern with lower highs and higher lows. Price oscillating inside that diamond and recently slipping toward the lower half, with a projected downside arrow toward the mid‑600s or lower, plus elevated volume spikes on some down days. This structure suggests distribution/indecision at the highs, where a break of the lower boundary could trigger a deeper correction; conversely, a breakout above the upper boundary would invalidate the bearish scenario. Current trend and levels QQQ recently made an all‑time closing high around the mid‑740s in early June 2026 before pulling back. It is now trading in the low‑710s to mid‑720s range, below that high yet well above its 52‑week low near the mid‑540s, so structurally it remains in a long‑term uptrend despite the pullback. Over the past year, the average price has been around the low‑600s, showing that current levels are still extended versus the longer‑term mean, which increases the risk of a mean‑reverting correction. Momentum and short‑term bias Daily technical readings have shifted from overbought to neutral/bearish, with indicators such as RSI leaning toward “sell” territory, consistent with your idea of a consolidation that may resolve lower. Recent sessions show lower highs and a series of tests of support zones around the low‑700s, signaling waning buying pressure while sellers sell into strength. However, volatility remains moderate and there is no evidence yet of a full trend reversal on higher time frames; rather, this looks like an overextended market pausing or correcting within a larger uptrend. Key support and resistance Major resistance: the recent high near 745–750; a daily close back above that region would signal the bulls have regained control and would likely invalidate a bearish diamond breakdown. Near‑term resistance: the mid‑730s, which recent analyses identify as a level that, if reclaimed, opens a retest of the highs. Immediate support: the low‑700s, where recent lows and volume clusters align; a decisive breakdown here would open the door to the high‑600s and potentially toward the 52‑week price midpoint around the low‑600s.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by QuantAi-Trend
Stock Market Forecast | Semiconductor Sector Just Broke - Is Thi0:00 - Intro & Video Overview 0:29 - Market Sector Data & CapEx Earnings Rotation 3:59 - Semiconductor Dark Pool Analysis (3x Leverage SOXX) 6:36 - Semiconductor ETF Dark Pool Cluster (NASDAQ:SMH) 7:06 - S&P 500 (SPY) CME_MINI:ES1! 8:22 - Invesco QQQ ( CME_MINI:NQ1! :QQQ) 10:00 - Bitcoin (: CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) 11:43 - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) 13:17 - Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ) 14:55 - Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) 15:48 - Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) 17:42 - Alphabet / Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) 18:36 - Apple (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ) 19:37 - NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) 19:49 - Outro & Commodities Video Reminder
NASDAQ:SOXXLong
by ArcadiaTrading
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (13-17 JUL)QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Last Week's Recap We only took one QQQ trade last week. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook provided a clean long setup, allowing us to capture a profitable move in both QQQ and NQ futures. No additional QQQ trades were taken for the remainder of the week. 1 trade | 1 win (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) UA CAPITAL RECAP 12.07 | WEEK 06–10 JUL Week 27 of 2026 marked our first breakeven week after an incredible run of 13 consecutive deep green weeks. That winning streak, which had lasted since early April, officially came to an end. I want to mention this with complete transparency. While the deep green streak is over, we still have not recorded a single red week year to date. Hopefully a new winning streak begins soon and continues to compound over the coming months. Markets experienced a healthy pullback during the first half of the week before finding support at lower levels. Part of that weakness was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump announced that peace negotiations with Iran had been suspended and military operations would continue. Those headlines created enough uncertainty to trigger profit taking across the indices. On Tuesday, the levels published in the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook once again worked with remarkable precision. SPY bounced almost exactly from our predefined area before rallying toward 750, while QQQ and NQ futures provided the cleaner execution. We established long exposure in both QQQ and Nasdaq futures, capturing another profitable trade by following the published plan. On Wednesday, SPY tested the 740.5 level almost perfectly before closing back above it, allowing long positions to be established from the support zone. Partial profits were taken at 745 and again at 747 during Wednesday and Thursday, following the execution plan exactly as outlined. Thursday brought a different opportunity. In the Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook published that morning, I outlined a tactical short setup for SPY around the 750–752 supply zone while also identifying a potential bullish continuation scenario for QQQ. The SPY short failed and was stopped out according to plan. However, the QQQ bullish scenario unfolded almost exactly as anticipated. Since we were already positioned on the SPY short, we decided not to participate in the QQQ long. Looking back, the analysis itself was accurate, but our execution favored the weaker setup. Had we followed the QQQ long instead, another profitable trade would have been available. Sometimes analysis is correct while execution becomes the deciding factor. The Thursday report also highlighted the possibility of a breakout above 752. That breakout materialized on Friday exactly as anticipated. Friday's rally was supported by renewed optimism surrounding geopolitical developments as headlines suggested that peace negotiations could resume. Despite the breakout, the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk decided not to participate because the move developed late on Friday afternoon, when option pinning and positioning distortions become much more likely. We preferred to finish the week flat rather than force a late entry. Overall, the week reflected disciplined execution. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook generated profitable futures and QQQ trades, while the unsuccessful SPY short later in the week offset part of those gains. By respecting predefined stop losses and maintaining disciplined risk management, we finished the week essentially flat. Although our 13 week deep green streak came to an end, our year to date record remains free of any losing weeks. That consistency is not simply the result of good market analysis. It is the product of disciplined risk management and strict position sizing. Equities Play This week we also began building several medium term spot positions together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. To maintain flexibility, total exposure was intentionally limited to approximately one quarter of our available buying power. Over the coming weeks, we plan to continue accumulating positions at predefined technical levels with the intention of holding them into the November–December 2026 timeframe. The individual names are shared exclusively inside the private Trading Desk, so I will not disclose them publicly. However, the portfolio remains concentrated primarily in technology and semiconductor companies. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bullish environment. Additional upside remains possible over the near term, although the market continues to trade within a broader choppy structure. The long term algorithm continues to signal a risk on environment, while the medium term outlook still leans slightly bearish. When these conditions occur simultaneously, volatility typically increases as both buyers and sellers compete for control. Eventually, this type of environment often resolves through either a meaningful correction or a decisive breakout that establishes the next directional trend. Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will continue looking for confirmed long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At this stage, I believe short positions carry a less attractive risk to reward profile. Should that view change, I will communicate it through the daily Tactical Playbooks. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (715) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: 720 → 725 → 729.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 710. Long Scenario 2 Put Wall (700) This is the largest negative GEX level. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 710 → 715 → 720 Invalidation: Daily close below 700. Long Scenario 3 KEY Level 2 (692) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 700 → 705 → 710 → 715 Invalidation: Daily close below 681. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 28 of 2026 (13-17 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Last Week's Recap We took two SPY trades last week. The first trade came from Tuesday's Tactical Playbook after price broke out of the Chop Zone and delivered a clean long setup. Later in the week, we attempted a tactical short from the 750–752 supply zone. The setup failed to follow through and was stopped out as planned. 2 trades | 1 win | 1 loss (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) UA CAPITAL RECAP 12.07 | WEEK 06–10 JUL Week 27 of 2026 marked our first breakeven week after an incredible run of 13 consecutive deep green weeks. That winning streak, which had lasted since early April, officially came to an end. I want to mention this with complete transparency. While the deep green streak is over, we still have not recorded a single red week year to date. Hopefully a new winning streak begins soon and continues to compound over the coming months. Markets experienced a healthy pullback during the first half of the week before finding support at lower levels. Part of that weakness was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump announced that peace negotiations with Iran had been suspended and military operations would continue. Those headlines created enough uncertainty to trigger profit taking across the indices. On Tuesday, the levels published in the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook once again worked with remarkable precision. SPY bounced almost exactly from our predefined area before rallying toward 750. During that move, we established long exposure through ES futures and captured a solid profit. On Wednesday, SPY tested the 740.5 level almost perfectly before closing back above it. That confirmation allowed us to re enter on the long side around 741.5. We scaled out at both 745 and 747 during Wednesday and Thursday, following the plan exactly as published. Thursday brought a different opportunity. In the Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook published that morning, I outlined a new tactical strategy for Thursday and Friday. Based on that framework, we initiated short exposure in SPY around the 750–752 supply zone while simultaneously shorting several individual equities. This trade did not develop as expected and was stopped out according to plan. Although the SPY short failed, the bullish continuation scenario published for QQQ unfolded almost perfectly. In hindsight, the analysis itself was accurate, but our execution favored the weaker setup. Had we followed the QQQ long instead of the SPY short, the trade would have produced another profitable outcome. Sometimes the analysis is correct while execution becomes the deciding factor. The Thursday report also highlighted the possibility of a breakout above 752. That breakout materialized on Friday exactly as anticipated. Friday's rally was supported by renewed optimism surrounding geopolitical developments as headlines suggested that peace negotiations could resume. Despite the breakout, the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk decided not to participate because the move developed late on Friday afternoon, when option pinning and positioning distortions become much more likely. We preferred to finish the week flat rather than force a late entry. Overall, the week reflected disciplined execution. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook generated profitable futures trades, while Wednesday and Thursday's long positions produced additional gains. Those profits were offset by Thursday's unsuccessful short positions across both the indices and several equities. By staying disciplined with our risk management, the week finished essentially flat. Although our 13 week deep green streak came to an end, our year to date record remains free of any losing weeks. That consistency is not simply the result of good market analysis. It is the product of disciplined risk management and strict position sizing. Equities Play This week we also began building several medium term spot positions together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. To maintain flexibility, total exposure was intentionally limited to approximately one quarter of our available buying power. Over the coming weeks, we plan to continue accumulating positions at predefined technical levels with the intention of holding them into the November–December 2026 timeframe. The individual names are shared exclusively inside the private Trading Desk, so I will not disclose them publicly. However, the portfolio remains concentrated primarily in technology and semiconductor companies. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bullish environment. Additional upside remains possible over the near term, although the market continues to trade within a broader choppy structure. The long term algorithm continues to signal a risk on environment, while the medium term outlook still leans slightly bearish. When these conditions occur simultaneously, volatility typically increases as both buyers and sellers compete for control. Eventually, this type of environment often resolves through either a meaningful correction or a decisive breakout that establishes the next directional trend. Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will continue looking for confirmed long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At this stage, I believe short positions carry a less attractive risk to reward profile. Should that view change, I will communicate it through the daily Tactical Playbooks. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (751.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the zone. Targets:754.5 → 758 → 760 Invalidation: Daily close below 748. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (747) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 750 → 751.5 → 754.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 745. Long Scenario 3 KEY Level 3 (740.5) This is the third major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 742.5 → 745 → 747 Invalidation: Daily close below 739 Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 17 JULDaily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook Market Technical Look Markets are once again under pressure, led by weakness across high beta technology names following the sharp selloff in the KOSPI, which dropped more than 6%. At the same time, Japan's 10-Year Government Bond yield has reached record highs while U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields continue to trend higher, creating a challenging macro backdrop for risk assets. The combination of tightening global liquidity and a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to pressure equities and supports the current corrective phase. From a structural perspective, the long and medium term trend remains risk on. However, the short term macro environment has clearly shifted toward risk off. As a result, sharp downside moves and elevated volatility should be considered part of the expected market environment. Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index continues to signal a risk on environment over the long and medium term. However, the short term model remains firmly risk off. This combination often produces highly volatile price action, including sharp selloffs followed by aggressive V shaped recoveries. SPY Daily Strategy / Outlook Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (748) This is the primary swing support area. If price reclaims the level with a confirmed one-hour bullish candle close, long positions can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a 1-hour bullish candle close back above 748. Targets: Take partial profits for every $1 move higher. Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 746. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (740) This is the next major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits for every $1 move higher. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 738. Short Scenario KEY Level 1 (746) If price retests this level from below and confirms rejection with a strong one-hour bearish candle close, short exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must reject 746 and produce a strong 1-hour bearish candle close below the level. Targets: Take partial profits for every $1 move lower. Invalidation: 1-hour candle close above 754. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: One-hour candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk free position. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Each scenario has its own invalidation level. Read them carefully before entering a position. 6. All charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). Using ETH may produce inaccurate candle confirmations. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook - 15 JULDaily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook Market Sentiment Following yesterday’s softer than expected CPI and PPI reports, the probability of a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has fallen to roughly 10%, providing a meaningful tailwind for equities. In addition to the encouraging inflation data, the KOSPI Index rallied nearly 6%, suggesting that immediate concerns surrounding a potential global liquidity crisis have eased for now. That said, several structural macro risks remain unresolved. Treasury yields, particularly the US 10-Year and Japanese 10-Year government bond yields, continue to trade near historically elevated levels. These remain important risk factors that could quickly shift market sentiment if conditions deteriorate. While the short term backdrop has improved, downside risks should not be ignored. Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index shifted back to slightly bullish following the CPI and PPI releases. The long term outlook remains firmly Risk On, while the short term outlook has improved enough to support a potential move toward new all time highs. However, the signal remains relatively weak. Although bullish momentum has strengthened, downside volatility remains a realistic possibility should market conditions deteriorate or new macro catalysts emerge. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (752.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, it may provide an opportunity to establish long exposure using call options. Trigger: Price must test 752.5 and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level. Targets:754.5 → 758 → 760 Invalidation:4 hour candle close below 751.5. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (748.25) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, it may provide another opportunity to establish long exposure using call options. Trigger: Price must test 748.25 and produce a bullish daily candle close back above the level. Targets: 750 → 751.5 → 754.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 747. Breakout Scenario Swing Area (755) If price breaks decisively above 755 and produces a strong 1 hour bullish candle close, a breakout continuation trade can be considered after a successful retest of the breakout level. Trigger: A strong 1 hour bullish candle close above 755, followed by a successful retest. Targets: 756 → 758 → 760 Invalidation: 1 hour candle close below 754. Position Management Rules 1-Entry Model: Use an aggressive entry only after a confirmed 1 hour candle close above or below the designated trigger level. 2-Scale Out Gradually: Take profits in stages, as market reversals can happen quickly, especially in volatile conditions. 3-Protect Capital: Once the first target is reached, move the remaining position’s stop loss to break even, converting the trade into a risk free position. 4-React, Don’t Predict: Every setup requires confirmation. We do not anticipate price movements we react to confirmed price action. 5-Read Every Scenario Carefully: Each scenario has its own unique trigger and invalidation level. Make sure you follow the rules specific to the setup you’re trading. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL