SPY ChannelCurrent: Price recently tagged the lower trendline around 750 and is now bouncing. That bounce is coming after a flush with a volume spike in early Nov.
LongETF market
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Research 04.11.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +6.73 +0.89%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +1.48 +0.22%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures rise as Democrats win both chambers of Congress: banks, healthcare, miners and renewables rally while AI, data-center and chip names fall
08:15 USA – ADP Employment Change
08:30 USA – Balance of Trade
08:30 USA – Treasury Refunding Announcement
10:00 USA – ISM Services PMI
10:30 USA – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings after the close: NASDAQ:QCOM , NASDAQ:ARM , NASDAQ:
Ain't over yet Whet happened last night (The United States of America committed sui code) is not going to result in a bull market.
SPY: My sell-off plan, written before the drop. Every levelSPY closed Tuesday at 754.35, about 3.2% below its Oct 6 closing high (779.09). Not a crash. But this is exactly when I want my plan written down, before a bad Friday makes the decision for me.
Here is every level I'm watching on SPY, with my two free tools, and what each one does.
Where things stand (Tuesday close)
- Trend Safety Switch: the trend flipped down on Oct 30 at 755.72, so it cut to 30%. It goes back to 100% on a close above about 779.
- Risk-Off Ladder, 1 of 3 warnings on:
1. VI
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SPYI vs. QQQI: Income, Exposure & RiskIncome-oriented ETFs can pursue similar distribution objectives while maintaining meaningfully different market exposures and risk characteristics.
Two examples are the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) and the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI).
Both seek to generate monthly cash distributions through equity investments combined with options-based strategies.
However, similar income objectives do not mean the funds will experience identical investment outcomes.
Our comparison chart il
Education
BIT Weekly — Make or BreakNASDAQ:IBIT — Weekly
One level matters right now: $47.
That's the flip zone. Resistance needs to become support before this moves anywhere meaningful.
If it holds:
→ Rally into year-end
→ Flush in 2027 (shakeout, not the end)
→ New ATH by 2028
Invalidation: lose $35.82 on the weekly and the thesis is dead.
Not financial advice. Just watching the map.
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Energy vs TechEnergy should begin to outperform tech as we approach more wars, etc. Energy is the best thing to be in during crisis. Also, interest rates are not helping the tech sector.
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QQQ: Warning 1 of 3 is on. What I do next (backtest since 2000)Warning 1 of 3 just turned on for QQQ.
VIX closed Monday at 21.15, in its top 20% of the past year. QQQ closed at 681.09 (-1.4%), only 0.2% above its 200-day average (about 679.8).
My free Risk-Off Ladder now reads 1 of 3 and is still 100% in. A QQQ close under about 680.1 turns warning 2 on, and at 2 of 3 the ladder steps aside at that close. As I write this on Tuesday, QQQ is trading above that level, but the rules act on the close. Warning 3 (15% below the 1-year high) is far off, at about 64
Chop day, one pay: META TREND at the morning lowA chop day, start to finish. QQQ pinned 684–688 all morning ahead of the midterms tonight and the jobs report Friday — and on a day like this the system's job is not to make money everywhere, it is to take the one clean print and keep everything else small. Today that print was META.
META — the one clean pay
The morning dip flushed to 605.9, and the TREND printed ~09:47 at ~608 — at the low, not after the move. From there it staircased all morning: higher lows, no chase, through 619 by 11:00. +
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Income ETFs: Distributions vs. Total ReturnIncome-focused ETFs have become an increasingly important part of portfolio construction.
Many of these funds seek to provide recurring cash distributions through underlying investments, options strategies, or a combination of approaches.
However, one of the most important distinctions investors must understand is that a high distribution rate does not necessarily indicate a high investment return.
Our SPYI chart illustrates why investors should evaluate cash distributions alongside changes i
Education
Opening: SPY December 4th 715/725/788/798 Iron Condor... for a 3.40 credit.
Comments: Remarkably, SPY is paying here with short option strikes at or below the 25 delta strike, so putting one on just to keep theta on and burning.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.40 ($340)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 6.60 ($660)
ROC at Max: 51.5%
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing: 15.2%
XLP: record close, now testing its November pivotConsumer staples (XLP) closed Monday at 90.83, its highest daily close on record, above the previous record close of 90.01 from February 27. That close also cleared the November monthly pivot at 89.84. Today it is giving some of it back and trades just under 89.84 at the time of writing, so the close decides. A daily close above 89.84 keeps the monthly, quarterly and yearly biases all pointing up, with the next monthly target at 95.52. A close under it would turn the monthly bias down and make M
Research 03.11.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY -1.10 -0.15%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +1.92 +0.28%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures mixed on US midterm election day as Apple and Palantir fall after earnings and oil rebounds on US-Iran tensions
10:00 USA – JOLTs Job Openings
10:00 USA – Factory Orders
14:00 USA – Total Vehicle Sales
Earnings before the open: NYSE:SYY , NYSE:DD , NYSE:SU , NYSE:APO
Earnings after the close: NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AMGN , NYSE:ANET , NASDAQ:BKNG , NYSE:XYZ , NYSE:AI
SPY Has Closed Under 758.68 Twice.Last read: Neither path fired - SPY closed Monday at 752.10, between 750.36 and 758.68, after a rally to 763.86 faded; it was the second straight close under the October 23 low, and Friday's 756.15 target traded again while 749.60 still has not.
SPY Has Closed Under 758.68 Twice.
SPY is at 751.30 before the open, a little under Monday's 752.10 close and resting on Friday's 750.36 low, which it dipped six cents under in premarket. Monday's rally reached 763.86 - above 758.68 and within 0.10 of
TQQQ: Setting Up To Bounce?Sure it is ladies and gentlemen, TQQQ is about to complete its 4hrs and Daily TFs Bearish Cycles in a couple of trading sessions more and a new Bullish cycle will start to go and fill the gap down printed a couple a days ago, so get those Long bets ready to fire.
Play it right.....................Play it safe......................Play it The Numberfive Way.
Boost.......................Follow........................Share..................Comment.
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IWM: Partial Inverse Head And Shoulders PatternThe iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed its most recent trading session at $279.14, down a marginal 0.07%. This follows a broader multi week technical consolidation where small caps pulled back roughly 5.6% over the past month due to climbing Treasury yields and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.
Technical outlook:
IWM is fluctuating on a sell momentum. The ETF has been trending on a downward pathway of lower lows and highs, in regard to the structure. Presently, we can spot a formation I
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$SPY & $SPX — Levels for Tuesday, November 3, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Levels for Tuesday, November 3, 2026
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)
10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings | Forecast: 7.15M | Previous: 7.08M
All Day | Congressional Elections
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #JOLTS #Employment #Elections #SPY #SPX
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QQQ / POSSIBLE SUBWAVE 2 OF WAVE 3 PLAYING OUT / VIX BOUNCENot financial advice or a recommendation.
QQQ retested the overhead gap this morning.
I am watching to see if this Subwave 2 gets an ABC up, or simply falls at the gap retest.
If so, perhaps we fill the gap at another time.
The VIX bouncing off its previous wedge's upper rail could indicate the end of Subwave 2.
Not guaranteed to run here, but something to watch as I hold my short.
Be careful out there.
Short
The alternate Spy chartBecause the VIX is close to resistance, it's possible to see a C wave up into the election and then a hard sell after it. This would be an ideal bull trap considering how many people I hear talking about "buy the market after the election"
Could we have seen this coming?SPY + VIX: Preparing for a Potential Selloff
The conditions marked on this chart could have helped traders prepare for downside, even without knowing the exact timing or size of the move.
• SPY was forming lower highs: Rallies were failing below previous peaks, showing weakening price structure.
• SPY’s bearish 8/21 EMA cross on October 22: This added evidence of weakening short-term momentum.
• VIX was strengthening: Its bullish 8/21 EMA cross on October 14, followed by higher lows, provide
SOXX going lowerHUGE double top
Perfect bear gap and go
Split coming up. Usually AFTER a split, stocks go lower.
The weekly chart looks like a perfect double top.
Buy nov or Dec or Jan $455 puts
Short
We may bottom tomorrow 745-740The short trade from today is looking good for a target of 745-740, possibly tomorrow. If we reach that area, we should see a decent bounce for a few weeks. If they crash through that support, something much worse is happening.
Two pays on Nov 2: QQQ TREND, AVGO BounceThe morning board called it chop: Friday's flush, a pre-market bounce that had already faded, and every overnight cross spent. The plan was narrow — fresh dip, fresh cross, no chasing. Two entries fit it. Four names were stood aside on the rules, and one of those passes became the day's best lesson.
QQQ — TREND, traded (+100%)
The print came at the morning flush low, 694.05 (day low 693.93), with the cross confirming out of the cool-down. The Nov02 697c paid +100% as QQQ ran into the 699–700 su
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