We are not going down just yet..Downtrend on lower time frames, under the anchored VWAP for this dramatic upside rally. Now we haven't retested the previous high, which is very close to last year's close. We just had midterms, which served as a catalyst to shake things around and collect profits. LLM IPOs are being delayed for a reason. We have gold rising and BTC setting up for a higher leg, ironically inverted from the tech stocks.
The theory is as follows: retest of this zone of interest (higher high, last year close area),
ETF market
Research 05.11.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +0.19 +0.02%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ -5.99 -0.87%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Nasdaq futures lag as chipmakers extend losses after NASDAQ:QCOM 's outlook and a 5% KOSPI slide; Dow futures add to the post-midterm rally
08:30 USA – Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 USA – Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs (Q3 prel)
08:50 USA – Fed Hammack Speech
09:10 USA – Fed Barkin Speech
10:30 USA – EIA Natural Gas Storage
19:00 USA – Fed Logan Speech
Earnings before the open:
LABU: Bullish Momentum in BiotechnologyThe biotechnology sector is showing a significant recovery, with the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index gaining approximately 27% year to date and around 40% over the past 12 months. Key drivers include drug innovation, clinical trial results, FDA activity, M&A transactions and the growing use of AI in biomedical research. These developments are attracting renewed investor interest, although individual biotech companies remain highly sensitive to clinical outcomes and regulatory decisions.
QQQ: 70% Put Premium on a Bounce Off the 200-Day SMAQQQ bounced off its 200-day SMA today, but 70% of the session's options premium went to puts, most of it in same-day contracts.
OPTIONS FLOW (Nov 4, at the close)
- $1.1B premium: $313.2M calls, $737.6M puts (30% calls / 70% puts), put/call volume 1.13
- 498 contracts traded above their open interest
- Nov 4 $695 puts: 248,482 contracts (OI 1,571), $62.6M
- Nov 4 $696 puts: 148,459 (OI 1,281), $48.2M
- Nov 4 $694 puts: 261,751 (OI 478), $43.2M
- Dec 31 $415 calls: 1,393 (OI 0), $39.0M
TECHNICA
NLR – Bullish Deep Crab | Potential Major Reversal OpportunityNLR is approaching an interesting reversal area on the daily chart, where a large Bullish Deep Crab harmonic pattern is nearing completion following a substantial decline.
What makes this setup particularly interesting is the potential harmonic reversal zone combined with several technical indicators suggesting that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion.
Trade Setup
My Entry: $88.00
TP1: $118.00
TP2: $135.00
TP3: $152.00
TP4: $180
Why I Entered the Trade
I personally entered NL
Market ObservationIn the past two articles when dips were experienced, the technical analysis showed that the market was experiencing a rotation and they should have been seen as buying opportunities. Those comments turned out to be the right call.
Looking at the post election result a number of observations can be made:
The market is experiencing a level of certainty as the people have shown what they think of the current status of affairs
A risk off from semis is still in play
No fundamental issue (ac
QQQ rip to 720 or bull trap under 703?QQQ ripped from the 670 flush back to 694 in a day. Now the question is whether 703 caps it.
📊 The read
The hourly model path, drawn from yesterday's close near 680, leans long: a steady grind toward about 720 by early Nov 5, staying between roughly +0.7% and +6% along the way. Price is riding the lower side of that path right now.
🧭 Why it matters
The band around the path is wide, about 3.7% per step, so its lower edge sits back in the mid 660s. That's the honest message: the lean is up, but th
XEG Long EntryValid 1h trend entry.
Price above rising 1h 200 MA
20 MA above 50 MA
Pullback to the 20/50 MA area
CCI recrossed red → green
Entry taken on candle close
Strategy signal confirmed. Position entered.
SL Management
Initial SL: below most recent 1h swing low.
Once trend is mature: trail using the Daily 50 MA.
If a black daily candle appears: pause SL movement.
If price closes below the Daily 50: exit.
Now let the trade work.
Research 04.11.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +6.73 +0.89%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +1.48 +0.22%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
Wall St futures rise as Democrats win both chambers of Congress: banks, healthcare, miners and renewables rally while AI, data-center and chip names fall
08:15 USA – ADP Employment Change
08:30 USA – Balance of Trade
08:30 USA – Treasury Refunding Announcement
10:00 USA – ISM Services PMI
10:30 USA – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings after the close: NASDAQ:QCOM , NASDAQ:ARM , NASDAQ:
SPY: My sell-off plan, written before the drop. Every levelSPY closed Tuesday at 754.35, about 3.2% below its Oct 6 closing high (779.09). Not a crash. But this is exactly when I want my plan written down, before a bad Friday makes the decision for me.
Here is every level I'm watching on SPY, with my two free tools, and what each one does.
Where things stand (Tuesday close)
- Trend Safety Switch: the trend flipped down on Oct 30 at 755.72, so it cut to 30%. It goes back to 100% on a close above about 779.
- Risk-Off Ladder, 1 of 3 warnings on:
1. VI
SPYI vs. QQQI: Income, Exposure & RiskIncome-oriented ETFs can pursue similar distribution objectives while maintaining meaningfully different market exposures and risk characteristics.
Two examples are the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) and the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI).
Both seek to generate monthly cash distributions through equity investments combined with options-based strategies.
However, similar income objectives do not mean the funds will experience identical investment outcomes.
Our comparison chart il
BIT Weekly — Make or BreakNASDAQ:IBIT — Weekly
One level matters right now: $47.
That's the flip zone. Resistance needs to become support before this moves anywhere meaningful.
If it holds:
→ Rally into year-end
→ Flush in 2027 (shakeout, not the end)
→ New ATH by 2028
Invalidation: lose $35.82 on the weekly and the thesis is dead.
Not financial advice. Just watching the map.
QQQ: Warning 1 of 3 is on. What I do next (backtest since 2000)Warning 1 of 3 just turned on for QQQ.
VIX closed Monday at 21.15, in its top 20% of the past year. QQQ closed at 681.09 (-1.4%), only 0.2% above its 200-day average (about 679.8).
My free Risk-Off Ladder now reads 1 of 3 and is still 100% in. A QQQ close under about 680.1 turns warning 2 on, and at 2 of 3 the ladder steps aside at that close. As I write this on Tuesday, QQQ is trading above that level, but the rules act on the close. Warning 3 (15% below the 1-year high) is far off, at about 64
Chop day, one pay: META TREND at the morning lowA chop day, start to finish. QQQ pinned 684–688 all morning ahead of the midterms tonight and the jobs report Friday — and on a day like this the system's job is not to make money everywhere, it is to take the one clean print and keep everything else small. Today that print was META.
META — the one clean pay
The morning dip flushed to 605.9, and the TREND printed ~09:47 at ~608 — at the low, not after the move. From there it staircased all morning: higher lows, no chase, through 619 by 11:00. +
Income ETFs: Distributions vs. Total ReturnIncome-focused ETFs have become an increasingly important part of portfolio construction.
Many of these funds seek to provide recurring cash distributions through underlying investments, options strategies, or a combination of approaches.
However, one of the most important distinctions investors must understand is that a high distribution rate does not necessarily indicate a high investment return.
Our SPYI chart illustrates why investors should evaluate cash distributions alongside changes i
Opening: SPY December 4th 715/725/788/798 Iron Condor... for a 3.40 credit.
Comments: Remarkably, SPY is paying here with short option strikes at or below the 25 delta strike, so putting one on just to keep theta on and burning.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.40 ($340)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 6.60 ($660)
ROC at Max: 51.5%
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
ROC at 10% of the Width of the Widest Wing: 15.2%
XLP: record close, now testing its November pivotConsumer staples (XLP) closed Monday at 90.83, its highest daily close on record, above the previous record close of 90.01 from February 27. That close also cleared the November monthly pivot at 89.84. Today it is giving some of it back and trades just under 89.84 at the time of writing, so the close decides. A daily close above 89.84 keeps the monthly, quarterly and yearly biases all pointing up, with the next monthly target at 95.52. A close under it would turn the monthly bias down and make M























