SPY's Breakout Fully Failed. Now It's At The Shelf.SPY's Breakout Fully Failed. Now It's At The Shelf.
SPY's push above 751 has completely unwound - price fell back through the entire breakout band and is at 741, testing the 740.44 shelf that held the whole recovery. The breakout was a trap, exactly the risk flagged yesterday. But right at the lows the surface conviction just spiked bullish, and the months-long bull anchor still has not broken - flagging itself, but standing. This is the moment the four-session standoff actually gets decided: hold 740.44 or lose it.
Resistance: 745.90-748 - the broken band, now resistance
Key resistance: 751.24-752.40 - the failed breakout high
Current price: 741.35
Support: 740.44 - the shelf that has to hold
Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The shelf holds and the anchor wins. 740.44 held the entire recovery, and a fresh bullish surface read just fired at the lows while the 225-bar bull print refuses to break. A bounce off 740.44 that reclaims 745.90 turns the failed breakout into a shakeout and puts the highs back in play. The anchor that would not break for a week is still standing.
The shelf breaks and the anchor gives. Price has already lost the whole breakout band, the bull print is carrying an anti-signal, and range and volatility are both expanded. A loss of 740.44 opens 736.50 then the 732.45 base, and a break of the 225-bar bull print there would be the first real trend change in the tape since the standoff began.
A week of coiling under 751 resolved with a failed breakout and a round-trip to 740.44. That shelf is now the whole story - where the standing bull anchor either proves itself one more time or finally breaks. The bullish flicker at the lows says the buyers are not gone, but the level decides it.
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Study, not financial advice. 
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GDX Elliott Wave Bearish Sequence Intact as it Turns Lower The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) continues to exhibit an incomplete bearish sequence from the March 2, 2026 high, and this structure still favors additional downside. The broader decline retains a clear impulsive and corrective rhythm, which strengthens the case for further weakness before a more durable recovery can emerge. The ideal downside target is measured by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 2 peak. This region, located at $33 to $59, represents a technically significant support zone where buyers may attempt to establish a three‑wave rally at minimum. The near‑term cycle from the June 18 high remains active and continues to unfold as a zigzag structure.
From the June 18 pivot, wave ((i)) ended at $84.28, followed by a modest recovery in wave ((ii)) that ended at $87.21. The ETF then turned lower in wave ((iii)) toward $74.08, and the subsequent wave ((iv)) rally ended at $76.40. The final leg of the sequence, wave ((v)), reached $73.70, which completed wave A at a higher degree. After that low, wave B developed as a double three structure. Up from wave A, wave ((w)) ended at $78.48, while wave ((x)) concluded at $73.89. The final push higher in wave ((y)) ended at $80.47, completing wave B.
GDX has since resumed its decline. As long as the pivot at $90 remains intact, the broader bearish sequence should continue to extend lower. SPY Short Term TASPY Intraday Options Watchlist for 7/8/26
SPY is approaching a decision point after consolidating between descending resistance and rising support, forming a tightening range. With price trading near the apex, Thursday's open should provide the first clue as to which side takes control. The key levels I'm watching are 745.31 (support) and 749.31 (resistance).
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If SPY opens near current levels and breaks above 749.31 with conviction, buyers could build momentum for a move into the mid-$750s. A successful breakout should hold former resistance as support before attempting another leg higher.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If sellers push SPY below 745.31, it would confirm the loss of short-term support and increase the probability of a move back into the low-$740s. A failure to reclaim that level after the breakdown would strengthen the bearish case.
🟡 Range-Bound Scenario
There's also a strong possibility that SPY continues to trade between 745.31 and 749.31, frustrating both bulls and bears before a true directional move develops. This would continue the current consolidation and make patience the better trade until one of the levels is decisively broken.
My Outlook
If I had to make a guess, I actually lean slightly bullish on Thursday's open. The chart has a bearish appearance, which makes me think the market could attempt to trap traders leaning too heavily to the downside before making a move higher. That's simply my read on the current setup—not a prediction.
The Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator is designed to identify Call and Put opportunities, but no indicator is perfect. That's why mapping out key support, resistance, and potential scenarios beforehand is so important—it helps define the risk-to-reward and filter out lower-quality or false signals. While the indicator works best for scalping on the 5-minute timeframe, it can also be paired with solid technical analysis like these levels to improve entries and overall trade management on larger moves.
Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade. 
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Do Not Lose your SOXX! Pt2Back on June 23, we sounded the alarm on chips. That warning is now playing out in real time. Let us look at what the charts are telling us today without making it too complicated.
The Daily Chart Is Getting Ugly
The short term picture shows that sellers are firmly in control right now.
Price is currently trading below all of its key short term moving averages.
We are right on the verge of a bearish crossover, which CAN mean more downside pressure is coming.
The daily TTM momentum indicator is about to turn red, showing that the buying power has completely dried up for now. (NOT SHOWN)
Where is the Floor?
We are currently sitting right around a minor support area near 540. If this area holds, the bulls might get a bounce.
But if 540 breaks, the floor is a long way down:
There is no real support under us until we hit 465, which is a level the market zoomed past and barely traded at earlier this year.
If we look at the big picture weekly chart, the ultimate major support level sits all the way down around 360.
The Big Picture
History shows us that the long term trend for semiconductors is incredibly strong. Even when momentum slows down, it can eventually find its footing and march higher. However, the short term daily trend is broken. Buying the dip right this second is a high risk move until the charts show us that the selling is done.
Do you think 540 holds through the week, or are we visiting 465 sooner rather than later?
NASDAQ:SMH NASDAQ:SOXX NASDAQ:SOX 
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SPY Finally Broke 751. Now It's Testing Whether It Holds.SPY Finally Broke 751. Now It's Testing Whether It Holds.
SPY broke through the 751 band that had rejected it for a week, tagging 752.40 and closing at the highs, then pulled back to 749.67. The bullish anchor that had been flagging itself for three straight sessions healed instead of breaking - it dropped its warning and price broke up, not down. That is the opposite of how the week looked like it would resolve. But the near-term read has already flipped short on the pullback, and the daily still is not fully convinced of the move, so the breakout is not clean yet.
Resistance: 752.40 - yesterday's high
Key resistance: 754.31-756.92 - the cluster above
Current price: 749.67
Support: 745.90-744.28 - the old band top, now support to hold
Key support: 740.44 - the shelf below
Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle
Two paths from here:
The breakout confirms. The 224-bar bull print healed its anti-signal and price cleared 751 on the close, so a hold above the old 746-751 band turns it into support and opens the 754-756 cluster, then the cycle high. The anchor that would not break for a week just proved itself, and a successful retest of the breakout level would seal it.
The breakout fails back into the range. Price is already back under 751 and the near-term read flipped short, so a loss of 745.90 drops it back into the range it just escaped and turns the breakout into a trap. The daily still is not confirming - a break above resistance that the conviction engine will not validate is the kind that gets sold.
For a week the question was whether the cracked bull anchor would finally give. It did the opposite - healed and broke out. Now the test is whether the breakout holds a retest or fails back into the range, and the near-term read flipping short on the first pullback is the early warning that it might not be clean.
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Study, not financial advice. Long 
SPY in July Despite what others will tell you no one “knows” what the market will do. We need to look at all the possibilities so we understand how to trade when the market plays out similar to one of these scenarios
1. Green Path: Bullish July (Breakout & Continuation Higher)
• Key Confirmation to Watch: Sustained break and close above the blue descending resistance trendline (currently around 750-760 zone) with strong volume and bullish candles. Look for reclaim of recent highs and acceleration above the yellow horizontal (~751-755 area).
• What to Expect: Strong upward momentum with the green zigzag line targeting 770-780+ initially, then pushing toward 800-830 if buyers dominate. Higher highs and higher lows on daily/weekly charts.
• Bullish Catalysts/Invalidation: Rising volume profile support, positive option signals (HD signals turning bullish), and macro tailwinds (e.g., Fed easing hints, strong earnings). Invalidate if price rejects the trendline and falls back below ~740-745 with conviction.
2. Yellow Path: Neutral July (Sideways Consolidation)
• Key Confirmation to Watch: Price oscillates around the yellow horizontal line (~751) and between the blue descending and red ascending trendlines without decisive breaks. Choppy candles, contracting ranges, and low volume typical of range-bound action.
• What to Expect: Sideways grind between roughly 730-760, with repeated tests of the dotted horizontal support/resistance. The yellow path shows zigzagging within this band, reflecting indecision ahead of major events (earnings, Fed).
• Neutral Catalysts/Invalidation: Balanced order flow, option signals staying mixed, and no strong directional bias in volume. Invalidate on a clear breakout above the blue line (bullish) or breakdown below the red support (bearish).
3. Red Path: Bearish July (Breakdown & Decline)
• Key Confirmation to Watch: Failure at the blue descending trendline or yellow horizontal, followed by a decisive close below the red ascending support trendline (currently in the 730-740 area). Acceleration on increasing red volume/candles.
• What to Expect: Sharp downside move as shown in the red arrow, targeting 710-720 initially and potentially lower (680-700 zone) if selling intensifies. Lower highs and lower lows confirming bearish structure.
• Bearish Catalysts/Invalidation: Weak option signals, negative volume profile shifts, or macro shocks (e.g., poor data, geopolitical risks). Invalidate on a strong rebound above the blue trendline with bullish reversal candles.
Overall Chart Context: SPY is at a pivotal junction near 751 with conflicting trendlines (blue resistance vs. red support). The paths illustrate the three likely July outcomes based on how price interacts with these levels. Monitor volume, HD Option Signals, and VRVP for early clues. Risk management: Define entries/exits at the key trendline breaks. Relative Strength Stocks I'm Watching Right NowThese are the strongest names on my radar right now:
NYSE:RBRK , NASDAQ:CRWD , NASDAQ:DDOG , NYSE:SNOW , NASDAQ:OKTA , NASDAQ:PANW
Around June 26th, I entered several new positions, while already holding my existing RBRK trade. The new additions were CRWD and DDOG.
I ended up closing all of these positions on July 2nd when the Nasdaq ( NASDAQ:QQQ ) broke down below its 10/20 EMA. Looking back, I shouldn't have sold everything—only a partial piece. This is a clear room for improvement for me, as these stocks actually kept pushing higher afterward.
For now, QQQ is looking quite volatile, so we will see how it plays out. However, I am definitely focusing on watching the strongest stocks that show relative strength.
Not financial advice.
Long
I Tracked 1,262 Trades. Five Losses Proved Nothing.“The strategy stopped working.”
That was the conclusion I reached after five losses.
I had spent years moving between Harmonics, price action and Wyckoff. Every time the losses arrived, I started looking for another answer.
Then I recorded 1,262 trades.
My win rate was 21%. My average winner was 3.93R.
That sample finally showed me what five trades actually told me.
Almost nothing.
Five Trades Feel Like Proof
Here is how a losing run feels from inside the account.
Loss one. Fine.
Loss two. Annoying.
Loss three. You check the entry rules again.
Loss four. You start wondering whether the market has changed.
Loss five. You open YouTube.
I know that cycle because I lived it.
I would find another strategy, test it for a while and feel confident again. Then the first ugly run arrived and I repeated the process.
The losses were real. My conclusion was the problem.
Five trades were far too little information to judge the system.
Losses Come in Clusters
Flip a fair coin enough times and you will see ugly streaks.
Several heads or tails can appear in a row without changing the odds of the coin.
A trading system behaves the same way. Wins and losses do not arrive in a neat pattern.
With a 21% win rate, losses are more common than wins. That does not automatically make the system unprofitable. Across my 1,262 recorded trades, the average winner was large enough to offset a mostly losing column.
But you cannot see that relationship across five trades.
You need enough trades for the average winner, average loser, win rate and losing runs to become visible.
Without that sample, every loss feels like a new problem.
One week, you blame the entry.
The next week, you change the exit.
Then you add another indicator.
You are not improving the system. You are preventing it from producing enough clean data to evaluate.
A Short Sample Can Mislead You Both Ways
A small sample does not only make good systems look bad.
It can also make bad systems look good.
You can take five random trades and win four. That does not prove you have an edge.
You can follow a tested system for five trades and lose all five. That does not prove the edge disappeared.
The same problem sits underneath both conclusions. You are asking a small sample to answer a question it cannot answer yet.
This is why I stopped measuring my trading in individual outcomes.
The useful questions are simpler:
• Did the trade match the tested setup?
• Was the risk correct?
• Did I follow the exit rule?
• Am I still collecting the same type of trade?
If the execution changed, investigate the execution.
If the rules stayed consistent, one losing run is not enough reason to rebuild the system.
Your Journal Holds the Answer
You cannot judge a sample that only exists in screenshots and memory.
Memory keeps the painful losses and exciting winners. It forgets the boring trades between them.
A journal forces you to see the full sequence.
Open your last 20 trades from one setup. Keep them in the order they happened.
Write down:
• Win, loss or breakeven
• Result in R
• Whether the setup followed your rules
• Whether the execution followed your rules
Twenty trades still cannot prove that a system works. That is not the purpose of this exercise.
The purpose is to show you how little one bad week can prove.
You may find that the strategy was never tested properly.
You may find that the rules changed between trades.
Or you may find a normal losing run inside a system you abandoned too early.
All three findings are more useful than “the market changed”.
If your trades are scattered across screenshots, get a trading journal.
Record the next 20 trades from one setup in order. You will have something stronger than confidence when the next losing run arrives.
You will have data. Bearish case for XLCGood morning traders,
The bearish thesis for XLC is not that digital advertising or communication services are disappearing. Instead, it argues that the market may be underestimating several medium-term risks:
Valuations remain demanding for the largest holdings.
Earnings expectations may be too optimistic.
AI monetization could take longer than expected.
Capital may rotate toward sectors with better earnings momentum.
The ETF is highly concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks.
The downside case is therefore driven more by multiple compression than by a collapse in revenues.
1. Extreme concentration risk
One of XLC's biggest weaknesses is its concentration.
The ETF is dominated by companies such as:
Meta Platforms
Alphabet
Netflix
Meta and Alphabet together account for a very large share of the portfolio.
This creates two problems:
company-specific risks become sector risks;
disappointing earnings from only one or two companies can materially impact ETF performance.
2. AI expectations may be ahead of reality
Markets increasingly assume that AI will generate:
higher advertising revenue;
lower operating costs;
new software products;
productivity gains.
However, there are risks:
AI infrastructure spending is extremely high.
Monetization remains uncertain in some areas.
Returns on capital may take years to materialize.
If investors become less confident about AI payback periods, valuation multiples could contract.
3. Advertising is cyclical
Although digital advertising has structural growth, it remains economically sensitive.
During an economic slowdown:
marketing budgets are reduced;
advertisers delay campaigns;
small businesses spend less.
Companies with large advertising exposure could therefore face earnings pressure.
4. Regulatory pressure
Large communication platforms continue to face regulatory scrutiny.
Potential risks include:
antitrust actions;
digital advertising regulation;
privacy restrictions;
AI regulation;
content moderation requirements.
Higher compliance costs could weigh on margins.
5. Limited multiple expansion
Following several years of strong performance, many of XLC's largest holdings already trade at premium valuations.
Even if earnings continue growing, future returns may depend more on earnings growth than on valuation expansion.
6. Rotation toward other sectors
One of the biggest risks is capital rotation.
If investors begin favoring sectors such as:
software,
industrial automation,
utilities,
financials,
XLC could underperform despite posting positive earnings growth.
This type of relative underperformance is common in late-cycle sector rotations.
7. High capital expenditures
Meta and Alphabet are investing heavily in:
AI data centers;
GPUs;
networking;
cloud infrastructure.
If these investments continue growing faster than revenue, free cash flow margins could come under pressure.
8. Slower user growth
Many communication platforms have reached very high market penetration.
Future growth increasingly depends on:
monetization;
pricing;
engagement.
This is generally harder than simply adding new users.
What would invalidate the bearish thesis?
If price returns above 200 MA
This short position is part of a diversified portfolio, you can follow my track record at signature links
Regards 
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