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MSFT: Capitulation to New HighWalking this one in order, because the sequence is the whole story.
First, the decline. MSFT spent months grinding lower in stages, each bounce failing a bit sooner than the last, until it capitulated to 349.20, the low of this entire chart, on a volume day that ran nearly 2x average. That's the kind of print that usually marks exhaustion rather than mid-trend weakness.
Next, the retest. Price bounced hard off that low, ran up toward 406, then rolled over again, but this second pullback only reached 377.39, well above the 349.20 low. A higher low after a capitulation flush is one of the more reliable early signs that selling pressure is fading, and it's marked on the chart.
Then, the gap. From that higher low, MSFT didn't grind back up, it gapped. A single overnight jump from a 390.54 close to a 437.90 open, roughly 12% in one session, on volume more than 3x normal. Gaps that size on real volume tend to reprice a stock rather than get filled quickly, and this one didn't get filled.
After that, follow-through. The stock kept climbing in the weeks after the gap, eventually printing a fresh high at 517.78, comfortably above every level on this 200-day chart.
Where that leaves things now: MSFT has pulled back from 517.78 to 492.44, a modest ~5% giveback so far. Nothing on this chart says that pullback is done or that it isn't. What the chart does say: the 349.20 low, the 377.39 higher low, and the gap zone around 390-438 are the reference points that matter if this pullback keeps going. No forecast, no position, just the sequence as it actually happened. META Mid-Term potential range tradeThis is a good setup for a mid-term move. I already have a solid entry around the 600 area.
Structure
As I explained on the chart, price tested the AVWAP anchored from the previous local high multiple times.
If you’ve read my previous posts, this is one of the core ideas in my framework:
Multiple tests can indicate progressive absorption.
Repeated testing alone is not enough, but the valid breakout on expanding volume helps confirm that the absorption process was real.
Bigger Range Still Matters
META is still trading inside a large 540–690 range.
Until price breaks out of this range with real momentum and acceptance, I still treat it as a range-bound structure.
Within the current lower-liquidity area, price has room to travel from boundary to boundary, carrying momentum from the 600–620 zone.
Relative Positioning
META is relatively undervalued and under-positioned within the Mag 7, which gives it a better cushion if broader market conditions deteriorate.
That doesn’t make it immune to market weakness, but relative positioning matters when capital starts rotating.
The Main Unknown: Broad Market Risk
The biggest uncertainty here is not META itself — it’s the overall market environment.
We have several potential risks ahead:
FOMC coming in roughly two weeks
Hot NFP report
Inflation risk still unresolved
Any of these could slow or stagger the move even if META’s individual structure remains constructive.
Positioning
If you’re looking to trade this setup, I would give it enough time to develop.
For me, that means either:
Shares, or
Longer-dated options with at least ~3 months of duration
This is not the kind of setup I’d want to force with very short-dated contracts. 
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Falling more and more?ADOBE (ADBE): GOOD PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE A HIGHER STOCK PRICE
Adobe has once again demonstrated an important lesson for investors: strong fundamentals do not automatically translate into a rising stock price.
Adobe reported Q3 revenue of $6.76B, above Wall Street expectations of approximately $6.69B, while adjusted EPS of $6.13 also exceeded expectations. The company even raised its full-year guidance. Yet, the stock continued to sell off.
This is precisely why I believe traders must understand the difference between business performance and market price behaviour.
A company can deliver good earnings, strong revenue growth and improving AI adoption — yet the stock can still decline if market sentiment, positioning, expectations and price structure remain bearish.
PRICE ACTION COMES FIRST
Fundamentals tell us what the business is doing.
Price action tells us what the market is actually doing with that information.
If positive earnings cannot generate sustained buying pressure, that itself becomes valuable information.
The market is effectively saying:
«“Good results are already priced in, but investors are still not convinced about the future.”»
In Adobe's case, concerns surrounding AI competition, future growth expectations and the upcoming leadership transition continue to weigh on sentiment.
This is why I would not blindly buy ADBE simply because the company continues to report strong numbers.
SENTIMENT & LIQUIDITY MATTER
Markets are not driven by fundamentals alone.
Large players operate around liquidity, positioning, expectations and sentiment. When the broader market perception turns bearish, positive news can sometimes become an opportunity for existing holders to reduce exposure rather than a catalyst for a new bullish trend.
That is why we sometimes see the unusual situation where:
GOOD EARNINGS → STOCK FALLS
This is not necessarily irrational.
It can happen when the market had already priced in a much better outcome, or when investors remain concerned about the company's future despite strong current numbers.
MY BIAS ON ADBE
Personally, I remain bearish on Adobe's price structure.
The continued inability of ADBE to generate meaningful upside despite strong financial results suggests that the underlying market sentiment remains weak.
Until price action demonstrates a convincing structural reversal — such as reclaiming major resistance levels, establishing higher highs and higher lows, and showing genuine buying strength — I believe the risk of another leg lower remains significant.
Therefore, my current view is:
Good fundamentals ≠ guaranteed upside.
Strong earnings ≠ bullish price action.
Positive news ≠ immediate buying opportunity.
For me, PRICE ACTION remains the final judge.
And based on the current bearish structure and persistent weakness, I believe ADBE could potentially fall significantly lower before the market finally finds a durable bottom.
This is not a prediction that Adobe's business is failing.
It is a recognition that a good company can still have a bad stock chart — and a good quarter does not automatically create a bullish trend.
Watch the price, not just the story.
Trade at your own risk and decision.
Disclaimer: All My post just for education, personal opinion and not financial advice. Short 
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AVO (Mission Produce): The Star Alignment Taking PlaceIf you are looking for a fundamentally backed breakout play hiding in plain sight, NASDAQ:AVO needs to be on your radar.
Looking at the daily chart, the price action over the last year has been incredibly choppy, trapped in a volatile range between $9.50 and $15.50. However, beneath this frustrating structural choppiness, a massive accumulation phase is taking place, backed by serious fundamental catalysts and heavy institutional conviction.
Here is why NASDAQ:AVO is positioned for a major upside breakout.
1. Structural Demand & The El Niño Hedge
The demand for avocados is experiencing durable, structural growth. U.S. avocado consumption is trending above 10 pounds per capita year-to-date, marking a 12% increase compared to the previous year.
While extreme weather patterns like El Niño frequently threaten agricultural yields (particularly in South America), Mission Produce's scale acts as a massive operational moat. They utilize a diversified global sourcing network to maintain supply when regional competitors struggle. This diversification is paying off: management expects 120 million to 130 million pounds of exportable production from their owned farms in Peru for the fiscal 2026 harvest season, up from 105 million pounds in fiscal 2025. They also reported a 38% year-over-year volume growth in the avocado category in Q3, driven by their Calavo acquisition and strong Mexican supply.
2. Heavy Insider Accumulation
When evaluating choppy, sideways charts, you follow the smart money. Corporate insiders at Mission Produce are loading the boat at these levels. Over the last 90 days, insiders have purchased over $44.7 million worth of stock on the open market. Directors and major shareholders have been aggressively accumulating shares. This level of localized insider buying is a massive vote of confidence that the current valuation is severely disconnected from the company's future cash flows.
3. The Earnings Catalyst
The company just reported its Q3 2026 earnings on September 8th, and it was a blowout.
Top and Bottom Line Beats: Revenue hit $450 million (up 26% year-over-year), crushing estimates of $371.1 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.18, easily beating the $0.12 estimate.
Synergies & Buybacks: Management raised the estimated annualized synergies from their recent Calavo acquisition to over $30 million. To top it off, the board just authorized a massive $100 million share repurchase program.
The Technical Execution
Looking at the chart, the stock is currently trading around $13.24, sitting directly on top of the dynamic moving average. The massive choppy structure over the last year has shaken out weak hands, leaving a coiled spring.
Given the fundamental strength of the Q3 earnings, the massive share buyback program, and relentless insider buying, this accumulation base is primed to resolve upward. I am looking for a high-volume daily close above the local resistance block at $14.50 to confirm the breakout, with initial targets scaling into the $16.50 consensus price target zone.
Are you accumulating NASDAQ:AVO alongside the insiders, or waiting for a confirmed technical breakout? Let me know your targets below! 👇 
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META | Internal Corrections Inside An External Uptrend
By analyzing the #META (Meta Platforms) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see a market that looks far worse than its structure actually is. Price has fallen a long way, but the distinction between internal and external structure is what separates a deep correction from a broken trend — and on this chart, that distinction still matters.
4H Timeframe
Start with what defines the trend, because everything else is subordinate to it. The Protected Low at $481.34 is the external structure. It has not been broken, and there have been no daily closes beneath it. Until that changes, the higher timeframe trend remains bullish regardless of how the intervening price action looks.
And the intervening price action has looked rough. Price printed an iCHoCH , then an iBOS , then more of the same on the way down. But every one of those breaks is internal structure. None of them broke the external swing. What they represent are corrections inside the larger bullish wave, not a reversal of it — and reading them as a trend change is the most common error this kind of chart produces.
The most recent sequence tells the current story. Price rallied with force and printed a bullish iCHoCH , then corrected down into the Order Block ($521.05 – $539.97) and reacted from it. That reaction was real — price turned and moved higher off the block. But it has since rolled over again and is now trading around $544.37 , sitting just above that same block.
Above price, the structure is clearly mapped. $613.02 is the level that changes the path. Above it sit the buy-side liquidity pools at $690.99 and $743.94 , with the upper Order Block ($744.37 – $758.46) resting directly above the higher pool.
Below, if the external structure were to fail, sell-side liquidity rests at $443.26 and again at $415.28 .
The Bias
Two paths are live here, and which one develops depends on a single level.
Scenario A — the lower route.
If price breaks the current low rather than holding it, the structure suggests a further move down before any recovery — likely back into or beneath the Order Block at $521.05 – $539.97 to complete the correction.
That would not break anything. As long as the Protected Low at $481.34 holds on a closing basis, a deeper flush remains an internal correction, and from that low the structure still points back toward the buy-side liquidity above.
Scenario B — the direct route.
If instead price rallies from here and reclaims $613.02 , the correction ends early. That level is the one that separates a market still working through its pullback from one that has finished it, and a clean move above it opens the path directly toward $690.99 and then $743.94 .
The distinction matters for positioning. Beneath $613.02, the structure is still corrective and each rally is unproven. Above it, the internal damage has been repaired and the external trend reasserts.
The invalidation.
Plainly stated: a decisive daily close beneath the Protected Low at $481.34 ends this. That is the external swing, and losing it would convert every internal break on this chart from a correction into the early stages of a genuine trend reversal, with the liquidity at $443.26 and $415.28 becoming the objective.
And the rule that governs all of it: a break is a candle close, not a wick . That applies to $613.02 on the way up and to $481.34 on the way down.
Fundamental Backdrop
This is the part of the analysis where I have to be direct, because the news flow around this company has deteriorated meaningfully and the structure cannot price all of it.
The starting point was the quarter. Meta reported revenue of $60.8bn , which beat expectations, but earnings of $6.18 per share against $7.19 expected — a substantial miss. The stock fell 3.4% on 12 August as the market worked through it.
What has followed is heavier than an earnings miss. Oral arguments have begun in a unified case brought by Attorneys General from 29 states , alleging that Meta knowingly fostered addictive behaviour among teenagers and children. A separate high-stakes child-safety trial is proceeding in California. Litigation of this scale is genuinely difficult to price — the range of outcomes is wide, the timelines are long, and the reputational dimension sits alongside the financial one.
Alongside that, a German advocacy group has filed a criminal complaint concerning Meta's smart glasses on privacy grounds, which complicates European expansion for a product line the company has been building around. And the planned acquisition of Chinese startup Manus has collapsed, adding a geopolitical constraint to the AI strategy.
Meta fell roughly 4% on Monday as investors weighed the legal exposure alongside questions about that AI strategy, and the stock has now given back more than a quarter of its value from its recent high. It has repeatedly failed to hold recoveries above $600.
Here is the honest position. The technical structure argues that this remains an internal correction within an intact external trend, and that argument is valid on its own terms — the Protected Low has held. But the fundamental picture has moved against it since the last earnings print, and legal overhangs of this type tend to compress valuations for as long as they remain unresolved rather than resolving quickly in either direction.
That combination does not invalidate the structural read. It does mean the level that matters most on this chart is not $613.02 on the upside — it is $481.34 on the downside, and it deserves more attention than it usually would.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves.
Best Regards, BigBeluga
Boeing May Face Breakdown RiskBoeing has limped for months, and some traders may see risk of a breakdown.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since January. This contrasts with breakouts in both the S&P 500 and the broader industrial sector, potentially reflecting a lack of relative strength.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is under the 21-day EMA. MACD is also falling. Those signals may be consistent with short-term bearishness.
Next, the aerospace company bounced around $205 in July. It’s been trying to hold in the same area in recent weeks. Traders could monitor that line for evidence of a breakdown.
Finally, they might eye November’s 52-week low of $176.77 as a potential level to test.
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